RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #2 - 2012-13 LeBron James

[falcolombardi]

Unibrodavis numbers on 2016 lebron are making me reconsider thinghs, colts numbers on wade-less lebron in 2013 playoffs are mindblowing....but is a relatively small sample size still

I think i will still go with a lebron season for thread #2.... but not sure which one now.... i also am incredibly high on duncan hakeen shaq, wilt and kareem peaks

After the goat two way bigs i am looking into bill russel i know i may be too low on russel but my instinct is that the gap between him and someone like hakeem or peak wilt cannot be so big as to make up the offensive gap but i may be wrong

Russel was the ultimate outlier in defense

Then guys like magic, curry, nash, wade, bird, garnett

Do you have Russell over Wilt all time and if so why? If Wilt has similar defensive value with much better offense and more longevity surely he's the greater player. The clear majority of Wilt's value is defensive imo and Russ is clearly in another tier there. Also Russ was a solid offensive player the TS% makes him look bad but adjusting for league average he was around average on solid volume.

My instinct is that wilt peaked higher even if the average prime russel season maybe was mpre impactful

Is hard to me to imagine russel being so great in defense that he is a whole tier above the defensive peaks of players like wilt hakeem or russel to make up for his weaker scoring and creation

But maybe that is the case (and yeah i got russel career over wilt but 67 wilt temptatively ahead of 64~ russel)

[ardee]

1. 2017 LeBron James

Honestly I think you could probably argue like 5 other seasons as LeBron's peak, it just shows you how great he is. I do think the best he ever played was the 2018 Playoffs but the hand injury in the Finals plus the weaker defense in the RS makes me go 2017 by default.

The RS isn't what makes his case here, but he still had probably his best RS since 2014. 26.4/8.6/8.7, 55% from the field, and actually shot 36% from 3. He missed 8 games and the team had a PD of 5.25 with him vs -16 without him. They lost all 8 games he missed, 6 of them by double digits. Using rough SRS calculations, they were basically a 5.4 SRS team with him and a -15 SRS team without him. So he was still having ridiculous impact in the RS.

The Playoffs tho... I mean, good grief. His averages were 32.8/9.1/7.8 on 64.9% TS. 56.5% from the field and 41.1% from 3. These are basically his vaunted 2013 efficiency numbers but in the Playoffs. These box score numbers translated to stupendous impact as seen by the Cavs putting together the BEST Playoff offense of all time. Yes, a 120.3 ORtg is the greatest of all time. +13.2 relative to the defenses he was facing.

His On/Off increases to a +30.7 per 100 possessions in the Playoffs, +19.9 on offense. So with him off the floor they were a 104.1 ORtg team, even with Kyrie and Love, 28th in the league. With him playing they were 124, so greatest of all time. it's a simple calculation, best ever with him, almost worst in the league without. Now THAT'S impact.

He reached an offensive level in 2017 and 2018 no one else ever has, and as a result his total impact cannot be matched this year because he still clearly also had it on defense. It shows up in both box score and impact numbers. He scored 30 or more on 50% or more from the field in 14/18 games. People claim he played weak competition, but his best series came against the GOAT 2017 Warriors: 34/12/10 on 63% TS.

This might not look like the most "perfect" season in that he didn't win the title or MVP, but in terms of sheer impact and goodness I can't pick against this year from LeBron.

HM: 2009, 2013, 2016 LeBron

2. 2000 Shaq

This is difficult for me, not having Wilt in the top 3. But I've been doing some re-evaluating and I don't think I can deny Shaq's impact was higher at their respective bests.

Just stupidly dominant, and on both ends. This was the one year Shaq really tried on both ends all year and the results were spectacular. He won the scoring title, was second in rebounds and third in blocks. Almost a unanimous MVP and 2nd in DPoY. 19, 16 and 11 game winning streaks.

His effort in the Playoffs was mammoth, he was +22.9 On/Off and clearly did everything he could to get that team to a title, against a veritable murderer's row of opponents (played 4 of the other top 7 SRS teams somehow), and in the most important series he was often triple teamed by Scottie Pippen, Rasheed Wallace and the 7'3 300 lb Sabonis.

3. 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon

Worse offensively than '95 and worse defensively than '93 but probably his best mix impact wise. Great player, great season. Will write more next thread.

[ardee]

I think there's like 5 guys after LeBron/MJ/Shaq who are basically interchangeable, in Hakeem/Wilt/Duncan/Bird/Kareem. It's gonna be a tough one.

[falcolombardi]

Somethingh i wanna start asking is how gap do we think the gap between bill russel defense and hakeem or wilt or duncan defense is?

Like we have limited data of russel era, very limited, but on a pure "team results" level he is a outlier among outliers in his end of the court

Nobody led a defensive dinasty that was comparable for its era nobody led a offensive dinasty that was comparable either

Based on that i tempatively think he is the highest "one way" (players great in one end, neutral ish in tge other) although i am not too knowledgeable on his supporting casts defensive talent

Do you guys think there is an aegument that the defensive gap between russel and wilt/hakeem/duncan is biggee than the offensive gap?

[falcolombardi]

1-2009 lebron

arguably the greatest statistical season ever played

led a truly elite -5.5 defense as a wing and had the second best defensive on/off in the league giving statistical weight to the eye test (for reference Dpoy jordan won with a -2 5 D)

had historical inpact numbers corroborating his impact all regular season long, and took a team that collapsed without him to a +8 SRS and 66 wins, cavs played like a goat-lite team with lebron ob court despite no all star level player help

a lot of people see 2016 curry as a goat regular season, i actually think 2009 bron was better and then IMPROVED in the playoffs

this version of lebron was able to score 40 efficient points a series against a -6 defense with a dpoy rim protector while being the whole focus of the defense attention,

his athletism and size allowed him to fill more holes that almost any defensive player in history, able to defend the paint from centers and then explode to a lighting quick closeout on the corner, lockdown wings 1vs1 and stay in front of guards

outlier or not i think is the most impressive basketball ever played

some may feel doubts about a non ring winning season at #1, yet most people likely will pick 91 jordan as the goat season even though he was virtually indistinguible as a player from 1990 so i personally have no issues here

Cons to me: the defense sufferwd against orlando in the playoffs i dont think this was lebron fault any more than i blame gobert for jazz struggles in defense but it puts some doubts on how "real" their regular season defensive achievement was

2016 lebron didnt have a much better defensive cast (maybe it was a better match against warriors than 2009 cavs against orlando) and he absolutely dominated defensively still

Unibro davis post convinced me his regular season was underated and based on cavs absurd offense results i think his offense was better than his boxscore numbers

2017 lebron is just the best offensive player i ever watched live even if his defensive focus was higher other seasons, the wet jumper puts it over 2018 bron for me

2013 lebron is a goat tier regular season but a tad less impressive than 2009, the wade-less numbers are out of this universe but i am not sure if they are somethigh to fully trust as "real lebron level" in that small sample, i see 2012 bron as similar player to 2013 overall, bettwr playoffs but much worse regular season

3-1974 kareem

70's fan has got me incredibly high on kareem peak these last months

incresible scoring and quality passinh make for an all timer in offense, and while he is maybe not at the level of the offensive goats, there is evidence he played legitimate Dpoy center defense in his peak

unbeliavle resiliency, portable and durable too

Arguably best player in the world in both ends before walton assencion which is just mindblowing

3-1967 wilt

The sixers were very talented but being the centerpiece of a elite offense (that actually was the best in history to that point i think, even if the separation doesnt seem THAT incredible now) and a all time defensive player simultaneously is just mindblowing stuff and reminiscent of kareem feat

4-2016 lebron

Unibrodavis post got me higher on his regular season probably would have been a 60+ win team if kyrie was healthy with lebron being the motor of that that lebron has better regular seasons shouldnt be held against 2016 when nobody else ever has done a 2009 lebron regular season either

Lebron has years with much mpre eyepopping offensive stats but the cavs absurd goat tier offensive run in 2016 suggests he may have been even more impactful than his already strong stats, and the defense was legitemely all time like for a wing too, few players i would trust mpre overall to win a ring for my team

[Proxy]

Do you guys think there is an aegument that the defensive gap between russel and wilt/hakeem/duncan is biggee than the offensive gap?

Yes and I explained why I'm starting to believe Bill is just flat out underrated offensively - I think he has some pretty big advantages in certain areas over any of those 3 honestly that just get overlooked mainly because the Celtics team offenses were mediocre and his efficiency was low etc. Though all of them are still SIGNIFICANTLY better offensive players lol - no argument against that from me, just think there could be a case his defensive impact outweighs that.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Do you guys think there is an aegument that the defensive gap between russel and wilt/hakeem/duncan is biggee than the offensive gap?

Yes and I explained why I'm starting to believe Bill is just flat out underrated offensively - I think he has some pretty big advantages in certain areas over any of those 3 honestly that just get overlooked mainly because the Celtics team offenses were mediocre and his efficiency was low etc. Though all of them are still SIGNIFICANTLY better offensive players lol - no argument against that from me, just think there could be a case his defensive impact outweighs that.

I think when you ask about the defensive gap, it’s only suprising because it’s hard to think of someone having that level of defensive impact in general when we see players today or even recently

Otoh, I think when viewing it in the lens of, it was a different game back then, it does seem reasonable in my opinion even if you don’t believe that level of defensive impact is possible today or in recent history

I think for his era his defense probably was levels above Hakeem and them, at the same time I think believing that having that tier of impact above them defensively isn’t possible anymore or during the times they played

[JordansBulls]

1. Kareem 1971 (won league and finals mvp) for the franchise that drafted him.

2. Hakeem 1994 (won league, finals mvp, DPOY) for a franchise that drafted him

3. Lebron 2012 (best overall stats season while winning)

[MyUniBroDavis]

Especially for those who emphasize two-way bigs at this stage: where does 2021 Giannis fit in for you? Is he that far off from the players mentioned thus far (Kareem, Wilt, Shaq, Russell)?

2021 Giannis interesting honestly

I remember cranjis or something pointed out a role change being the cause for his “decreased” defensive impact, but his 2019 and 2020 years were among the very best in the 3 point era in that regard

Offensively on the basis of what happened I think he has to rank pretty high, beyond his clear dominance in general the fact that he had one of the best overall finals performances ever on one leg (especially since I think it was too the extent that he missed the first week training camp the next season) has to make up for the fact he missed two games on an injury most people would be out for months for. Impact metrics seem pretty high on him, I know some like LEBRON and I think darko (darko can’t be used for something like this iirc) rate his 2020 season above jokics this year (it’s the second highest in the LEBRON database iirc, which goes back to 09-10)

There are definately limitations he has offensively that puts him lower than some in that regard, but I do think an optimized Giannis is someone that in terms of level of play is probably the best in the league right now by a good amount.

If someone’s heavy on taking seasons into context + playoffs + what happened vs hypotheticals I could see an argument for Giannis in the top 10-15 for sure.

[DraymondGold]

More Discussion on Shaq vs Kareem:

Wholistic stats:
Ai. Regular Season BPM: +7.3 2000 Shaq > +5.2 1977 Kareem [though 1972 Kareem is higher, and 1971 and 1973 are close].
Aii. Postseason BPM: +8.5 1977 Kareem > +7.0 2000 Shaq [1974 Kareem is also higher than peak Shaq, though 2000 and 2001 Shaq come next]
B. CORP: 29.4% 2000 Shaq > 25.8% 1977 Kareem.
Additional stats. Regular season: 2000 Shaq > 1977 Kareem in WOWY, and 2000 Shaq barely > 1977 Kareem in winshares; 1977 Kareem barely > 2000 Shaq in Basketball Reference's BPM.
Additional stats. For postseason: 1977 Kareem > Shaq in Basketball Reference's BPM and winshares. In a larger postseason sample, 77-79 Kareem barely > 00-02 Shaq in postseason Goldstein PIPM.
Takeaway: 00 Shaq probably wins regular season, 77 Kareem probably wins postseason.
*Since it's the stat of the moment, I'll also note that in Squared2020's 1985 Historical RAPM sample of 41 games (where the Lakers played just under their season average), Kareem nearly matched peak Shaq's RAPM a full 8 years after Kareem's peak! He had +8.45 (2nd in the league behind magic and ~6th all time among top 20ish players).

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?

1. Kareem was well known for his postseason resiliency, so I wouldn't expect him to regress against the Sixers in the finals. We've seen him having 3 complete finals runs (1971, 1974, 1980) that were on extremely high level anyway. I know it's not the perfect way to judge season (maybe I am too inconsistent with my approach as well?), but I think that Kareem couldn't have done anything better with what he had in 1977, while Shaq was in inarguably better situation and I have seen moments when he didn't play up to his potential (although he was amazing overall in the playoffs).

2. Given how well both played, I find it hard not to pick a player I consider simply better. It's not MJ vs LBJ situation to me, because I legitimatelly can't decide who was better between these two. Shaq in comparison has a lot of exploitable weaknesses compared to Kareem (FT shooting, lack of mobility, limited range, poor defensive fundamentals) and even though he was dominant in spite of them, I don't think he was more dominant than Kareem.

For sure, it's definitely true that Kareem's resilient! And he's definitely had a number of great and deep postseason runs. But it still doesn't seem like he reached the same heights of 77 in any other year (which is fair... it's hard for anyone to reach those heights!). For example, in boxscore metrics, his 1977 BPM was 8.5, while his 1974 BPM was 7.9. He had 6.4 in 1979 and 6.8 in 1980. Similarly, with scoring, while he had 31.2 inflation-adjusted pts/75 on +13.7% rTS in 1977, he "only" had 27.0 pts/75 on +9.0% rTS in 1974 and 24.0 pts/75 on +12.5% rTS in 1979.

The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.
The argument in favor of Kareem would be that he still got close to that historic level 3 years before and 2 years after, with 1977 being the only good postseason sample between 74 and 79. This suggests the 1977 postseason could be an accurate showing, which he would have replicated (or at least gotten closer) in 1975, 1976, and 1978 if he had a better team to support a deeper playoff run.

I do find your first point, that Kareem played almost perfectly given the poor situation (and that he showed a capability to play a ceiling raising role in non-peak years) fairly convincing. For your second point, I'm not quite there yet thinking Kareem is "simply better", though you're right that Shaq does have more exploitable weaknesses and is less well rounded.

Scoring: Kareem > Shaq.
I went into this thinking Kareem was a slightly better scorer, but your comment about just how wide the efficiency gap is really swayed me:

- Shaq's highest rTS% accomplished in the playoffs during his prime (1994-03) was +8.7 rTS%,
- Kareem surpassed that mark 6 times in 1970-83 period (1970, 1974, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1983).

Wow! For what it's worth, 4/5 of the top Postseason ScoreVal seasons go to Kareem over Shaq.

Defense: Rim Protection Kareem > Shaq?

1971-79 Kareem: 6.4 successful stops at the rim per game, 2.5 weak effort plays at the rim per game
1999/00 Shaq (excluding 2000/01 games): 3.7 successful stops at the rim per game, 2.8 weak effort plays at the rim per game

With roughly the same number of questionable plays, Kareem defended almost twice as many shots as Shaq. You may think that Shaq was more intimidating inside, but that's not true. When I also incluce high quality rotations that prevented from rim shots vs lack of them, Shaq also looks notably worse:

1971-79 Kareem: 3.1 high quality rotations vs 2.2 missed rotations
1999/00 Shaq: 1.4 high quality rotations vs 1.8 missed rotations

If we compare these numbers to all time great rim protector like Hakeem, you'll see how these two compare:

1993-94 Hakeem (35 games): 7.7 successful stops at the rim per game, 1.9 weak effort plays at the rim per game
1993-94 Hakeem (35 games): 3.6 high quality rotations vs 1.3 missed rotations

Thanks so much for tracking this! Super interesting stuff. I can definitely see Shaq making poor or slow rotations (thanks as well for the clips!). And good catch about Shaq's intimidation inside, that's exactly what my counter would have been

Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops. Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

Defense: Man Defense Shaq > Kareem?
I'll bring in colts18 since they provided some nice Man defense stats. colts18, do you have any thoughts on the above? Also, it looks like your stat about SRS when Shaq and Kobe are both together is wrong... 9.71 SRS wouldn't be the 4th best SRS in 3 pt era behind 92, 96, 97 Bulls, since multiple Warriors teams have eclipsed that value. Perhaps the quote is old?

Shaq’s 2000 season was his best defensive performance ever. The Lakers finished #1 in Defensive Rating (-5.9 relative to league average according to B-R), 1st in FG% allowed, 3P% allowed. Shaq led the league in Defensive Win Shares. Shaq’s man defense was a huge part of that. According to Hoopsstats.com, the Lakers in 2000 allowed 14.0 PPG, 40.7 FG% to opposing center. They had the best PPG against Centers, FG% against centers, and finished with the 2nd fewest FTA/game allowed to Centers.

Anyway, here were some of the lines that stood out to me from colts' defense of Shaq's defense:

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/opponentstats/00/10/pts/1-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Top TS% defense:
Lakers: .455 TS% (.453 in the games Shaq played)
Spurs: .486 TS%
Heat: .490 TS%
The League average center was .526 TS% so the Lakers were -7.1 TS% relative to League average and they beat the Robinson/Duncan Spurs by 3.1 TS% for 1st place. An impressive feat.
...
Here is what Shaq did vs. the top 5 non-Shaq scorers at Center that year: ...
Average dropoff is -2.2 PPG, -10.3 FG%, -12.0 TS%. That is a significant dropoff.

Playoffs (regular season averages in parenthesis): ...
Average dropoff: 2.2 PPG, -9.3 FG%, -10.8 TS%

Any thoughts? Though I would have thought rim protection is more valuable (and it still might be enough to take Kareem over Shaq defensively), could Shaq's make up some of the defensive gap with man defense?

Creation: Shaq > Kareem, but by how much?

-Creation and other offensive skills: I think here's where we might disagree? At least as far as I can tell (though I'm not film expert on Kareem -- feel free to let me know if I'm wrong here!), I see Shaq's overall offensive creation as above Kareem's. 2000 Shaq has a higher box creation and passer rating than 1977 Kareem in the regular season, and although Kareem's box creation overcomes Shaq's in the playoffs, his passer rating stays behind. While Kareem is certainly underrated as far as gravity goes, Shaq is usually considered the gold standard for big man rim gravity, drawing the double team and kicking back out to three pointers. I see this as a major driver of Shaq's offensive value, and something he has over Kareem (at least in my eye). Perhaps Shaq's benefited from his era, gaining more value than Kareem with his rim gravity and kickout passes simply because he was passing to 3 point shooters?

Well, for once we have to remember that players and teams in the 2000s post considerably higher box creation numbers due to the nature of game. I don't like comparing creation numbers across 30 years, because someone like Shaq had much more opportunities to create something with improved spacing and slower game.

If you compare both BC and PR from team perspective in 1977 and 2000, you'll see that the difference is quite drastic - more so than the difference between Kareem and Shaq. The fact that Kareem is somehow close to Shaq actually proves me with the idea that he's a better passer and playmaker than Shaq.

About Shaq's gravity - this one is a massive game changer, but I wonder how much different it was compared to Kareem. I mean, this is how Kareem was guarded in 1977 playoffs:

Spoiler:

This are not highly selected screens - I picked them from one quarter of game 3 vs Warriors. Kareem absorbed ridiculous amount of defensive attention and he had a harder time beating it without the three point line.

Great points! We definitely have to account for era, and Kareem might be the better passer if we use the "time machine" argument. I also appreciate the footage of Kareem's gravity. Still, I wonder whether Shaq's ability to warp the defense was more valuable in his era, given the increased space and the threat of 3 point shooters. I tend to think so: even if Kareem was attracting as much double teams or defensive rotations, the defense didn't have to rotate as far, didn't have to recover as far, and the offense ended up with a less efficient shot (3 > 2).

I guess here, we end up with the time machine argument. How much do we want to decide the greatest peak based on "goodness" in an era-independent way vs "value" in an era-dependent context.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Especially for those who emphasize two-way bigs at this stage: where does 2021 Giannis fit in for you? Is he that far off from the players mentioned thus far (Kareem, Wilt, Shaq, Russell)?

I feel like he would be tier down from them. I see him as someone who is better but still maybe closer to the David Robinson, Dirk, and Moses Malone (so maybe in between them)?

[ceoofkobefans]

Just going to be lazy and copy paste my thoughts for LeBron and Shaq

2. 2013 LeBron James

I believe there’s a clear top 2. I think LeBron (even in 2013) clears Shaq on O due to being a significantly better playmaker and still being a better scorer. Being a 78% Rim shooter and a 40% 3pt shooter (even if he’s being left open a decent bit of the time to prevent him from finishing) is just really hard to beat as a scorer from a rim oriented player which is why I think he’s a better scorer. Defensively I also like LeBron over Shaq. Shaq even in 00 with the added motor was still kind of a lazy defender and still didn’t like coming out of the paint on D. There wasn’t a 3 in the paint on D in 2000 so he was allowed to paint camp more and even tho he was an elite rim protector his lack of much else on D really holds him back.

3. 2000 Shaquille O’Neal

Top 6 scoring peak to me. Probably a top 10 playmaking big peak (haven’t made a list but I’d imagine having the goat gravity and off ball movement from a big is enough to get him there) being extremely portable and a strong defender makes him hard to stop. He’s shooting almost 80% at the rim (if not in the 80s) in a league where the average rim FG% isn’t even in the 60s while constantly being doubled and tripled. Just an insane offensive peak


4. 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon

Although this arguably isn’t his peak on O or D I think it’s his best combination of scoring playmaking defense and portability. Hakeem’s RS metrics don’t look the best but he’s one of the biggest PO risers ever and his multi year PO metrics (I prefer multi year over single year metrics in the PO) look significantly better and they make a top 4 placement look much more reasonable. In 1994 he was a much more willing passer and didn’t miss very many basic reads like he did in the previous years (and made the occasional advanced read as well) and he was a great scorer as always and while he regressed as a defender he was still very clearly and all time defender and I don’t know how many defensive seasons there are better than 94 Hakeem outside of his own and BR’s. He was also a better Off ball player and more willing off the ball in 1994. I would like to watch a little bit more film to confirm if I’m overrating him but I think that 4 is a very fair sport for his peak

[NO-KG-AI]

Based on that i tempatively think he is the highest "one way" (players great in one end, neutral ish in tge other) although i am not too knowledgeable on his supporting casts defensive talent

Do you guys think there is an aegument that the defensive gap between russel and wilt/hakeem/duncan is biggee than the offensive gap?

I think it is higher no doubt. The gap is enormous. The only real question is would it transfer as well to other versions of the league with extremely different rulesets and whether or not that matters to you when ranking or voting on these kinds of things.

[Jaivl]

Somethingh i wanna start asking is how gap do we think the gap between bill russel defense and hakeem or wilt or duncan defense is?

Not only Russell, I think Thurmond is easily clear of them too. Probably the same with fully engaged Wilt.

[70sFan]

More Discussion on Shaq vs Kareem:

The more the better!

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?

For sure, it's definitely true that Kareem's resilient! And he's definitely had a number of great and deep postseason runs. But it still doesn't seem like he reached the same heights of 77 in any other year (which is fair... it's hard for anyone to reach those heights!). For example, in boxscore metrics, his 1977 BPM was 8.5, while his 1974 BPM was 7.9. He had 6.4 in 1979 and 6.8 in 1980. Similarly, with scoring, while he had 31.2 inflation-adjusted pts/75 on +13.7% rTS in 1977, he "only" had 27.0 pts/75 on +9.0% rTS in 1974 and 24.0 pts/75 on +12.5% rTS in 1979.

Sure, I didn't want to imply that it wasn't Kareem's most productive postseason run, it's certainly is. That said, if we actually compare some of his best postseason runs it's not like we're talking about 2003 Tmac situation here:

1970: 6.2 BPM, 28.2 pts/75 on +10.1 rTS%
1971: 6.2 BPM, 24.2 pts/75 on +6.3 rTS%
1974: 7.9 BPM, 27.0 pts/75 on +9.0 rTS%
1977: 8.5 BPM, 31.2 pts/75 on +13.7 rTS%
1979: 6.4 BPM, 24.0 pts/75 on +13.5 rTS%
1980: 6.9 BPM, 29.6 pts/75 on +9.9 rTS%
1983: 5.3 BPM, 26.1 pts/75 on +8.3 rTS%

It's true that Kareem reached his absolute peak in 1977 playoffs, but I think missed postseasons in 1975 and 1976 makes it look more outlier than it actually was, very unfortunately. As you see, Kareem had likely his 2nd best run in 1974 and I don't see any reason why he wouldn't reach similar heights between 1974 and 1977.

I understand your reservations though!

The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.
The argument in favor of Kareem would be that he still got close to that historic level 3 years before and 2 years after, with 1977 being the only good postseason sample between 74 and 79. This suggests the 1977 postseason could be an accurate showing, which he would have replicated (or at least gotten closer) in 1975, 1976, and 1978 if he had a better team to support a deeper playoff run.

Exactly, that's my way of thinking. Of course, it's not perfect way to evaluate player's quality, but that's how I see.

I do find your first point, that Kareem played almost perfectly given the poor situation (and that he showed a capability to play a ceiling raising role in non-peak years) fairly convincing.

I'm glad to hear that, I think that's what makes the greatest players truly the greatest. We've seen this with LeBron and Jordan, but most people don't realize that Kareem also did that. I'm not sure if we can really critic Shaq for not playing in bad situation, but I have a lot of questions about his floor raising ability given his skillset. I don't doubt about his ceilling raising ability, but he's not clearly more impressive in that aspect than Kareem.

For your second point, I'm not quite there yet thinking Kareem is "simply better", though you're right that Shaq does have more exploitable weaknesses and is less well rounded.

Yeah, maybe I use too much of definitive language but this is how I see it. I have a lot more concerns with Hakeem/Duncan vs Shaq for example, because I see how many advantages O'Neal has over them (and vice versa). With Kareem though, I think most of Shaq's advantages aren't fundamental for this comparison.

Scoring: Kareem > Shaq.
I went into this thinking Kareem was a slightly better scorer, but your comment about just how wide the efficiency gap is really swayed me:

- Shaq's highest rTS% accomplished in the playoffs during his prime (1994-03) was +8.7 rTS%,
- Kareem surpassed that mark 6 times in 1970-83 period (1970, 1974, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1983).

Wow! For what it's worth, 4/5 of the top Postseason ScoreVal seasons go to Kareem over Shaq.

It's truly astonishing, because Shaq himself is at worst top 10 scorer ever with crazy resiliency. Kareem was unbelievable though.

Defense: Rim Protection Kareem > Shaq?
Thanks so much for tracking this! Super interesting stuff. I can definitely see Shaq making poor or slow rotations (thanks as well for the clips!). And good catch about Shaq's intimidation inside, that's exactly what my counter would have been

Yeah, intimidation part is the main reason why I still view Shaq as positive defender, despite all these flaws. In the end, he was just a massive body with 7'7 wingspan, you can't teach that. When he's focused, his ability to protect the paint was very strong because he was also crazy athletic. Kareem wasn't too shabby in that front either - he was even taller than Shaq and extremely athletic himself.

Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops.

I didn't track all the shots taken at the rim for the 1970s games, so this goes strictly from my eye-test. I think the difference between driving opportunities is noticeable, but it's mostly related to transition game. In halfcourt, it wasn't easy to attack the paint without the three point line and I don't think Kareem has a huge advantage here compared to the 1990s. Kareem has one huge advantage over Shaq and that's lack of illegal defense - this one is definitely a bit advantage for him.

That's why I included Hakeem in this comparison, to show that you could reach comparable numbers to Kareem in the 1990s.

Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

Yes, he wasn't as active on defense as he was in Milwaukee. The difference between 1977 and say 1972 was mostly related to how Kareem approached defense though - in 1977, he was a bit smarter with his rotations but didn't have the same recovery time - which was INSANE when he was young:

Watch on YouTube

The biggest difference in his defensive effectiveness is visible after 1978 though. When you watch 1977/78 games, Kareem looks a little slower and less active, but it wasn't anything huge. Then when you jump into 1978/79 Lakers games, the difference is very visible. That's the main reason why I don't think 1979-81 Kareem was on his peak level anymore - even though he was as good as ever offensively.

Defense: Man Defense Shaq > Kareem?
I'll bring in colts18 since they provided some nice Man defense stats. colts18, do you have any thoughts on the above? Also, it looks like your stat about SRS when Shaq and Kobe are both together is wrong... 9.71 SRS wouldn't be the 4th best SRS in 3 pt era behind 92, 96, 97 Bulls, since multiple Warriors teams have eclipsed that value. Perhaps the quote is old?

Shaq’s 2000 season was his best defensive performance ever. The Lakers finished #1 in Defensive Rating (-5.9 relative to league average according to B-R), 1st in FG% allowed, 3P% allowed. Shaq led the league in Defensive Win Shares. Shaq’s man defense was a huge part of that. According to Hoopsstats.com, the Lakers in 2000 allowed 14.0 PPG, 40.7 FG% to opposing center. They had the best PPG against Centers, FG% against centers, and finished with the 2nd fewest FTA/game allowed to Centers.

Anyway, here were some of the lines that stood out to me from colts' defense of Shaq's defense:

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/opponentstats/00/10/pts/1-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Top TS% defense:
Lakers: .455 TS% (.453 in the games Shaq played)
Spurs: .486 TS%
Heat: .490 TS%
The League average center was .526 TS% so the Lakers were -7.1 TS% relative to League average and they beat the Robinson/Duncan Spurs by 3.1 TS% for 1st place. An impressive feat.
...
Here is what Shaq did vs. the top 5 non-Shaq scorers at Center that year: ...
Average dropoff is -2.2 PPG, -10.3 FG%, -12.0 TS%. That is a significant dropoff.

Playoffs (regular season averages in parenthesis): ...
Average dropoff: 2.2 PPG, -9.3 FG%, -10.8 TS%

Any thoughts? Though I would have thought rim protection is more valuable (and it still might be enough to take Kareem over Shaq defensively), could Shaq's make up some of the defensive gap with man defense?

I haven't made such calculations for Kareem (or any other center) yet, but I have that in plans. Just from watching both, I think that this is where Shaq has the advantage and it's important to keep that in mind. Shaq could be a lazy man defender, but when he's locked in he could impact the way opponents play. Most Shaq matchup opponents didn't score a lot of points inside and that's something that could be a huge factor. Kareem himself was a solidman defender, but he wasn't as intimidating.

Great points! We definitely have to account for era, and Kareem might be the better passer if we use the "time machine" argument. I also appreciate the footage of Kareem's gravity. Still, I wonder whether Shaq's ability to warp the defense was more valuable in his era, given the increased space and the threat of 3 point shooters. I tend to think so: even if Kareem was attracting as much double teams or defensive rotations, the defense didn't have to rotate as far, didn't have to recover as far, and the offense ended up with a less efficient shot (3 > 2).

I guess here, we end up with the time machine argument. How much do we want to decide the greatest peak based on "goodness" in an era-independent way vs "value" in an era-dependent context.

Yeah, that's something that is always hard to take into account. It doesn't make any sense to downgrade Kareem for the fact his teammates couldn't take threes, but at the same time we shouldn't just ignore the impact Shaq had because of that. I don't have a smart answer to this question.

[homecourtloss]

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?


The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.


Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops. Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

First of all, I wanted to mention that I appreciate your metrics based approach to player evaluation and the discussions and insights you bring to this board.

Secondly, this is the second time I’ve seen you refer to player “coasting” in the regular season enabling a playoff run. Do you have some objective evidence for saying Kareem coasted in 1977 or LeBron in 2016 (other time you mentioned it)? How is coasting measured? How does coasting help with limited playoff sample sizes? How do we know “coasting” helped the playoff run?

I don’t see the argument for either “coasting.” LeBron was the Cavs’ defensive anchor in 2016 on a team that had few plus defenders; everyone knows about his post season defense but his regular season defense was phenomenal as well. How does a player “coast” and manage to do that?

As for Kareem, looking at his roster, it took pretty much all of Kareem to squeeze out 53 wins playing a gods chunk of close games.

Last part you mentioned was about the drives, which is a good question. We’ve seen through tracking data a substantial increase in drives per game/possession as the 3pt rate has increased. Obviously it wasn’t as high when Shaq was playing, so I’m not sure if an increase in drives then was enough to outweigh play inside the paint in a non 3 point environment.

[Djoker]

Just to be clear I think it's very tough to call Kareem's playoff scoring in 1977 a total outlier because he had a similarly impressive 8.0 rTS, +10.6 rTS, +8.0 rTS in 1974, 1979 and 1980. And there is plenty of evidence that he was objectively better in 1977, a perfect combination of greater strength and still prime motor. Even if you want to call peak Kareem a 27 pts/75 on +10 rTS player that's still insane and makes him the 2nd best scorer of all time after MJ.

[falcolombardi]

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?


The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.


Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops. Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

First of all, I wanted to mention that I appreciate your metrics based approach to player evaluation and the discussions and insights you bring to this board.

Secondly, this is the second time I’ve seen you refer to player “coasting” in the regular season enabling a playoff run. Do you have some objective evidence for saying Kareem coasted in 1977 or LeBron in 2016 (other time you mentioned it)? How is coasting measured? How does coasting help with limited playoff sample sizes? How do we know “coasting” helped the playoff run?

I don’t see the argument for either “coasting.” LeBron was the Cavs’ defensive anchor in 2016 on a team that had few plus defenders; everyone knows about his post season defense but his regular season defense was phenomenal as well. How does a player “coast” and manage to do that?

As for Kareem, looking at his roster, it took pretty much all of Kareem to squeeze out 53 wins playing a gods chunk of close games.

Last part you mentioned was about the drives, which is a good question. We’ve seen through tracking data a substantial increase in drives per game/possession as the 3pt rate has increased. Obviously it wasn’t as high when Shaq was playing, so I’m not sure if an increase in drives then was enough to outweigh play inside the paint in a non 3 point environment.

I dont even see the point in docking points for coasting even if it really was an advantage coming playoffs time

I mean, nobody gives lebron a pass for his issues against 2013 spurs because he led miami to a 27 win streak in reg season

A player who coasts in reg season is already punished by doing so in how his regular season gets evaluated lower than it could have

And for all the talk about regular season being ignored, notice how most consensus peaks for players and the highest valued seasons ever are those where the regular season is as great as the playoffs

[CharityStripe34]

Especially for those who emphasize two-way bigs at this stage: where does 2021 Giannis fit in for you? Is he that far off from the players mentioned thus far (Kareem, Wilt, Shaq, Russell)?

His 2019-2022 (4 seasons) of 28-12-6 with superlative defense and historic levels of efficiency (averaging around 30-31PER) is shaping up to be an incredible peak. Within these last 4-5 years his play from 2020 until 2021 when they won the title has been akin to Hakeem in 93-95, Shaq 00-01 and Kareem in 71-72. IMO.

[DraymondGold]

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?


The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.


Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops. Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

First of all, I wanted to mention that I appreciate your metrics based approach to player evaluation and the discussions and insights you bring to this board.

Thanks so much! I'm glad to hear

Secondly, this is the second time I’ve seen you refer to player “coasting” in the regular season enabling a playoff run. Do you have some objective evidence for saying Kareem coasted in 1977 or LeBron in 2016 (other time you mentioned it)? How is coasting measured? How does coasting help with limited playoff sample sizes? How do we know “coasting” helped the playoff run?

I don’t see the argument for either “coasting.” LeBron was the Cavs’ defensive anchor in 2016 on a team that had few plus defenders; everyone knows about his post season defense but his regular season defense was phenomenal as well. How does a player “coast” and manage to do that?

What do I mean by "coasting"? There's a pattern some all-time players show as they get older. They have their best regular seasons (statistically, defensively, in terms of defense, etc.) when they're younger. When they get older, they get slightly worse by these metrics in the regular season. Yet in the playoffs, they show greater improvements vs their regular season selves, and sometimes even improve over their younger playoff selves. There's evidence that this happened with older Kareem, older LeBron, older Jordan (though I don't think his 2nd threepeat playoff improvements are enough to take 98 Jordan over 91), Shaq (e.g. 2001), Kawhi, Curry (e.g. 2022), etc.

What causes this? There's a few possiblilities. For example, 1. Players have a higher motor when they're younger. This motor declines as they get older. This decline most often shows up in worse defensive performances (or less consistent defensive effort) relative to their younger selves, at least in the regular season. 2. Certainly as players get older, they gain experience and versatility which allows them to improve more. 3. Players may even intentionally decide not to go 100% in the regular season as they get older, to decrease injury risk, limit wear and tear, improve longevity, and save up their motor to reach that higher gear in the playoffs.

Evidence in support of coasting:
Both Kareem and LeBron had media articles and stories about their declining defensive effort in the regular season as they got older. There's also statistical evidence...
Ai. 2016 LeBron (regular season -> playoffs): +1.6 in AuPM, +3.5 in Backpicks BPM, improvements in Basketball Reference's BPM, improvements in WS/48, and I believe improved in RAPM/PIPM. These are noticeable improvements in almost all metrics. 2016 LeBron's regular season was below his earlier regular season performances in most of these metrics (compared to 2009, 2012, 2013), but his 2016 playoffs >> 2016 regular season, and his 2016 playoffs may be > 2009/2012/2013 playoffs.
Aii. 2016 Cavs (regular season -> playoffs): +6.93 offensive rating improvement, 1.92 defensive rating improvement, and +5.84 SRS improvement (5th all time) . So the improvements from the regular season to the playoffs by LeBron (and possibly others) does make a difference in team performance. (source: Sansterre's Top 100 Teams)
B. 1977 Kareem (regular season -> playoffs): significantly improved in Backpicks BPM, Basketball Reference's BPM, WS/48, etc. Again, 1977 Kareem's regular season was below some of his earlier regular seasons in these metrics, but his 1977 playoffs is clearly his best.

Why does this matter? Well, it becomes a question of each player's value, and what we value in our GOAT peaks. If 2016 LeBron and 1977 Kareem performed at their playoff level throughout the entire regular season (and if the metics showed this), I think we'd be almost universally taking those seasons as their peaks... and those peaks would have greater arguments against their peers. But they didn't... so instead we're debating 2016 vs 2009/2012/2013, and we're debating 1977 vs 1974/1971 (and vs 2000 Shaq).

That doesn't mean 2016 LeBron or 1977 Kareem had bad regular seasons. Like you say, Kareem still squeezed out 53 wins from a sub-optimal roster and 2016 LeBron was still his team's best defensive player. But they were worse relative to the heights they reached in the same playoffs, and in earlier regular seasons. Worse regular season performances do decrease value (even if you really don't value the regular season, a worse regular season performance -> likely a lower seed -> harder playoff route -> thus lower championship odds).
So, Question 1 is: how much worse were these players in the regular season, and how much value does this take away from them?
Question 2 is: does this regular season coasting enable their playoff improvements, and does that matter? There's an argument that much of the improvement comes from their improved experience. But you could also argue that, as these players get older and their motor wanes, they actually need to coast a bit to enable these higher-motor, higher-value, lofty playoff performances. If this is the case, then if these players were to try more in the regular season to limit their regular season disadvantage (e.g. if Lebron were to limit his 2016 regular season disadvantage vs 2009 or 2013, or if 77 Kareem were to limit his disadvantage vs 1974/1971 Kareem or 2000 Shaq), then they'd be losing the energy/motor to perform well in the playoffs and thus limit the advantage they have in the post season.