Peak Project #8

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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#41 » by bastillon » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:51 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:Well that answered my question :lol:

thanks for the detailed breakdown, your main argument being that of his midrange based skillset most of his impact came around the attention he got because he was a great midrange shooter when Open and since he's so tall and quick he becomes a hard task to contain for anyone to stop, so teams will send a lot of help defense at him and garnett is skilled enough, with enough court vision to set up his teammates for buckets and tons of different levels of hockey assists.

Hey if you have the time could you breakdown his offense in 2004 like you did with lebron from 09-14 under the same categories.
Didnt know the Cassell Injury was that bad, I thought it was a nagging injury like 2012 Wade had in the PS.


Hmm. I'll try to stick to just the numbers, I feel like I already covered qualitatively what I wanted to in the above post. Remember, this isn't perfectly precise; there is definite overlap in across these categories, I'm just trying to give a broad-strokes summation. Also, Garnett's offensive breakdown is a bit different than Lebron's. I'm going split PnR and playmaking up. Off-ball will comprise of screening and movement. I'm unsure as to how I would classify high-post hub (playmaking? or post-game? or spacing?). I'm removing slashing and replacing it with isolation, which will also include mid-post. I'm going to group playmaking and post-game together, because so much of that comes from his high/low game. Transition would be his outlet passing/trailing/finishing/etc. (I'll end up listing it as +0.25 as I have for most everyone, but really its more like .15, I've just tried to stick with the .25 increments and that doesn't give me enough room for differentiation between all these guys on that front).

Playmaking/Post +1.25
Shooting/Spacing +0.75
PnR/PnP +0.75
Isolation +0.50
Off-Ball +0.50
Transition +0.25

I think this can apply to Garnett across 03-05. He's a 3.75-4ish offensive player in those years, IMO better than Duncan and Robinson. On the defensive end, all three guys do different things and IMO at their peaks, we're splitting hairs picking between them. However, I don't think Garnett peaks on both ends quite at the same time (though he's still tops in the league).

I think a "super-peaks" discussion would be interesting, the list would look a bit different (IMO Lebron becomes the clear GOAT peak, Hakeem is a clear cut #2, Wilt is now a bit ahead of Jordan/Shaq, Garnett rounds out the top 5 even with those 2, Kareem jumps into the top 10, Kobe jumps substantially, etc.).


Hakeem peaked simultaneously on offense and defense in 93. You agree?
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#42 » by JLei » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:54 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
JLei wrote:
What is a super peak?


Combination of best offensive and defensive year (ie. LeBron: 14 offense + 12 Defense).


Ah makes sense. I thought it was a more micro thing/ potential peak just because it's very hard for someone to play their best on offense and defense over a season. Like potential impact over a game or a series. i.e. 13 Finals Game 6 4th quarter Bron + Game 7 Bron. Emptying that NOS tank Bron can exert ridiculous amount of impact on defense well beyond his average impact just due to his sheer ability while still maintaining elite offense impact.
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#43 » by trex_8063 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:58 pm

thizznation wrote:I have been pretty busy last couple of days and haven't gotten to look up the stats and information I would of liked. I'll try to get a ballot in by tomorrow. (FYI) My interest has not been waning, if anything the opposite, so you guys can count me in on still participating.


Me too. Life is just sort of in the way of making detailed and well-researched posts. fwiw, this thread is supposed to end by TONIGHT. But I'm open to leaving it up until tomorrow morning if there are no objections, since you have at least implied that you would better facilitate you (me as well).
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#44 » by trex_8063 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:59 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
And not that I'm considering him just yet, but what do you guys think of Connie Hawkins? Around what company does he enter the conversation? I realize the ABA in the late 60's was a touch weak, but man he was crushing it; and was still All-NBA 1st team (post-injury) when he hit the NBA in '70, fwiw.
I've been of the opinion that he could at least be considered just after guys like Barkley/Moses/Dirk/Karl. What do you guys think?


Bumping this quote of mine to give it one more chance at a reply. Seriously, what do you guys think of Connie Hawkins? I feel he has a pretty decent case for top 25 (maybe higher) peak.
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#45 » by SideshowBob » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:00 pm

Quotatious wrote:
E-Balla wrote:There's an astounding lack of Bill Russell in here.

Not anymore. :)

Ballot #1 - Bill Russell '62

Ballot #2 - Julius Erving '76

Ballot #3 - Larry Bird '86



I don't use SRS type evaluations for players like for example SideshowBob uses, because I don't believe you can accurately measure a player's impact "in a vacuum" - he's not going to make the same impact on every team, supporting cast and role within a team has A LOT to do with that. For example Kevin Love - he seemed like a hugely impactful and productive player in '14 in Minnesota, seemed to be a superstar, and soon after, in '15 in Cleveland, he looked like just a borderline all-star. Nothing indicates that Love's abilities declined so much, all of a sudden. He just wasn't used in a role that would allow him to reach his full potential in '15 (or even close to it).


FWIW, I'm not really trying to measure them in a vacuum, I'm more concerned with how much they can shift the needle on any random team (or the average team) - the point is that they will not retain the same impact across teams, so let's best sum up what we think their average would be in 10 or 100 or 1000 different possibilities. Then portability is essentially the variance, less portable players are high variance, more portable players are low variance. By this logic, it follows that a less portable player might actually be better suited to carry a weaker cast, which we do actually observe, but how important is this if you're trying to build a title level team? Obviously this is no perfect art, I've admitted I think I could be a bit more precise, a bit more consistent with some of my rating criteria, but I like the thought process behind this.

On Love, I think he was just struggling with nagging injuries (mostly back).

Spoiler:
I've already explained my Russell and Erving picks. Russell to me is clearly the defensive GOAT, he's also likely a top 3 rebounder of all-time, good passer, playmaker and ball-handler for his position, and a decent scorer for his era, that year, especially in the playoffs ('62). Also, for what it's worth, he had arguably better intangibles and basketball IQ than anyone else in NBA history. He suffers a bit if we go with "time machine" approach, but every player has a weakness (if not in terms of skillset, then at least in terms of performance at some point of a season). Russell's scoring is a relative weakness, but he more than makes up for it in other areas. I see Russell as a slight positive on offense (if I was forced to use the SRS approach that SSB uses, I'd say he's between +0.5 and +1.0 on offense that particular year, although that +1.0 rating would be based more on the playoffs - in the RS, he was about neutral).

Russell's era-relative impact was just huge. He was a real outlier in terms of his defensive impact. Even though I generally believe that great offense beats great defense (because a great offensive player can dictate the way the game is played, and a great defensive player can only react to the moves the offensive player, and his possibilities of "dictating" the game are limited, even someone like Russell, who seemed to literally change the mindset of offensive players because of how smart he was on defense, still couldn't rival star offensive players in terms of dictating the way the game was played), I think that Russell's impact on team defense was big enough that the "great offense > great defense" (which is mostly about individual offense and defense, not about "global" impact on offense/defense) argument doesn't necessarily apply to him.

Erving behind Russell because even though Doc was a great offensive player, he wasn't really an all-time great playmaker/facilitator (he wasn't even a particularly impressive playmaker compared to other wings of a similar caliber, like Jordan, LeBron, Wade, Kobe), so his overall impact on offense wasn't as high it could be if he was an elite scorer AND playmaker (such as Magic and Bird, although he seems to have the edge on defense over those guys). Russell's global impact on defense was definitely higher than Erving's global impact on offense, IMO.

I've decided to go with Bird as my third pick here, to continue the theme of voting for players who stepped up their game in the playoffs.

Bird is a uniquely talented offensive player because he can make the same impact as elite on-ball players (Jordan, LeBron, Magic, Nash) as a primarily off-ball player, which makes him extremely valuable. That is not to say that Bird was not a great on-ball player/playmaker - he sure was. He was an excellent ball-handler for his size and most likely a top 10 (maybe even top 5) passer in NBA history. Contrary to popular belief, he wasn't a point forward in the same sense as guys like LeBron or Pippen, who often acted as the primary ball-handlers of their teams, but he was a point forward in the same sense as guys like Garnett (in the early/mid 2000s) or Webber (in the early 2000s). Big forward with excellent ball-handling and passing skills (but Bird was better than Garnett and Webber in both areas, plus he was a better outside shooter, who could stretch the floor much better). He could still run the pick & roll as a ball-handler very effectively (especially with Parish as the roll man), but he could also set good screens and be the roll man himself (even more so as a pick & pop guy, than pick & roll). He also had something in common with '14 Kevin Love, in terms of his great outlet passing and being able to accumulate a lot of assists solely as a passer from the post, at times, without acting as a perimeter player. He was also a great cutter who could finish very well with his vast array of close range shots, incredibly soft touch. Just an amazingly versatile offensive player.

Defensively, I think Bird was a clear positive.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpEAZMT5t_U[/youtube]

I know this just a highlight video, but he was very disruptive help defender in most of the games he played during his career, before his ailing back robbed him of his mobility.

Bird was certainly a flawed 1 on 1 defender, especially on the perimeter, where more athletic, quicker players could really give him problems, but he was an excellent team defender, below average/poor 1 on 1 defender on the perimeter, about average 1 on 1 defender in the post, so overall, he still seems to be a clear positive.

Why Erving over Bird? So, first of all, Erving has a clear edge in terms of advanced numbers (in a weaker league, so I wouldn't take those numbers at face value, but his advantage is big enough that even after making a reasonable adjustment, Erving would still come out on top in that comparison), comparable scorer, slightly better rebounder (most people would think that Bird was a better rebounder, but per 100 possessions, Doc looks slightly better - well, I guess we can call it a wash, both were GOAT level rebounders at SF), worse playmaker, but but better ball-handler, better defender (not a big gap, but noticeable in Erving's favor), and (this will be perhaps the primary argument for Dr J) - he seems more likely to vault a mediocre/average team into title contention, a team led by '76 Erving seems more likely to pull an upset win over a stronger opponent. Bird's '86 Celtics team was arguably the most stacked team in the 3-point era.

I'll put it this way - Erving is more likely to turn a weak team into a good team, and an average team into a great team, but is more likely to turn a good team into a historically great team. Both possibilities sound great, but ultimately, Doc's capabilities seem to be a little more impressive to me. This is about the same as LeBron vs Magic - James can help a weak or average team overachieve (like he did in '09), but he's not necessarily a great fit on a stacked team, while Magic thrives on stacked teams, but he's less capable of elevating a weak or average team into title contention due to his inferior motor, athleticism and two-way play.

Erving vs Bird is a very close comparison, and Larry also improved his game in the playoffs compared to RS in '86, but clearly not as much as Doc did in '76 (Bird's PER went down, but his WS/48, BPM and scoring efficiency went up, so I'd say he was better overall in the playoffs than he was in the RS), and Bird had a much better supporting cast around him (on the other hand, Bird's competition was clearly better, too, but I still think that Erving had more of an impact on his team than Bird did, and the Nets would've suffered more without him, than the Celtics would've suffered without Bird - well, we know that the Celtics were still an above average team in '89, without Bird).

Why Bird over Garnett, Robinson, Walton? So, it clearly seems like Bird performed better in the postseason (yes, even compared to Walton). Garnett, Robinson and Walton played at least a little worse in the postseason (I'm talking about '04 Garnett, '95 Robinson and '77 Walton) than they did in the regular season, while Bird played a little better in the postseason. Garnett and Robinson have an edge over Bird based on RS play (but it's not very significant and it doesn't have any kind of an important impact on winning - all of them were worth about 20 wins for their respective teams, in my estimation), not sure if Walton does - honestly, I'd probably go with Bird over Walton for RS, although the way I see it, Walton played closer to his RS standards in the postseason than Garnett and Robinson did. I think the playoff gap is more important, personally.

Why Bird over Magic? Oh, the comparison for the ages...Bird's advantage on defense (both had similar strengths and weaknesses - both mediocre 1 on 1 defenders, especially on the perimeter, but both good team defenders - the thing is, Bird's team defense was more impactful, so he gets the edge overall - everybody except for diehard Laker fans would likely agree that Bird was better defensively, even if it's not a huge gap) is the most important difference between them, to me. Besides, I think that Bird is slightly more portable, because of his superior off-ball play (but the question is - would you really want to take the ball away from Magic's hands? I wouldn't), and shooting ability. It's very close, and as soon as one of my top 3 picks (Russell, Erving, Bird) gets selected, I'll likely have Magic in my next top 3.

Why Bird over Wade? So, I don't think Wade's '06 regular season was as good as BIrd's '86 (Wade shot only 52.1% TS, which is below league average, in 18 games without Shaq in November and early December of '05, and the Heat were only 9-9, exactly 0.500% W, in those games - I mean, sure, he improved his game later on that season, as evident in the playoffs, where he was absolutely fantastic, but in such close comparisons, little details matter), and I'm not convinced if Wade's playoff run in '06 was really better than Bird's '86 playoff run.
Besides, I think that '09 Wade was a better player than '06 Wade. He just didn't prove enough in the postseason in '09 (I'm not talking about team results, I'm talking about his individual play - he was very good, but a little below his RS standards)

Bird was much better off-ball on offense than both '06 and '09 Wade, which makes him more portable. Wade was better on defense, but not to a degree that could sway me to support him over Bird right now.

Why Bird over Curry? Better individual play in the postseason. Especially against tough defenses - Bird had a phenomenal series against a very tough Bucks team, -4.5 defense, and a great series against a very solid Hawks defense, while Curry played a little below his standards against the Grizzlies).

Perhaps I seem to speak with more conviction than I really am, but I really have a lot of doubts. There are great arguments for many players. I'm just trying to stick to my general principle of voting for players who performed at least on the same level in the playoffs as they did in the regular season (or better).


:lol: Yeah you do, and I think its great - I was even going to mention that earlier when you talked about project MVPs (throwing you in there and also Spaceman - he's been pushing against the conventional thinking with Robinson and also bringing up Curry/Dirk/etc. early, not to mention those extensive writeups).
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#46 » by SideshowBob » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:05 pm

JLei wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:
JLei wrote:
What is a super peak?


Combination of best offensive and defensive year (ie. LeBron: 14 offense + 12 Defense).


Ah makes sense. I thought it was a more micro thing/ potential peak just because it's very hard for someone to play their best on offense and defense over a season. Like potential impact over a game or a series. i.e. 13 Finals Game 6 4th quarter Bron + Game 7 Bron. Emptying that NOS tank Bron can exert ridiculous amount of impact on defense well beyond his average impact just due to his sheer ability while still maintaining elite offense impact.


What should we call that? Super-super peak? Single-game peak, max-effort peak? Needs a catchy name :lol: I think there's some fun discussion there as well.
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#47 » by E-Balla » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:10 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
E-Balla wrote:There's an astounding lack of Bill Russell in here. I mean this is a guy who had the Celtics defense playing at a -10+ level. I mean we have seen votes going to guys like D Rob and KG mainly for their defense but a guy almost universally seen as noticably better on that end hasn't gotten any type of serious consideration. Now I get that those two are better offensively but both guys have major offensive issues preventing them from being the first option on championship team without a guy like Sam Jones to help them on that end. I don't know I just feel like people are forgetting Russell and the massive impact he had on the floor overall.


I don't think Russell was "noticeably better" than Robinson defensively. In fact I don't think he was better at all.

Well you were the almost in my statement. I completely understand why you want Robinson in even if I disagree. I was pointing that more at guys who I don't think have thought out their next vote as much as you have so I'm just saying that Russell might be getting way overlooked since the usual pro Russell guys are absent (I mean he was 3rd last time wasn't he?).
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#48 » by SideshowBob » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:14 pm

bastillon wrote:Hakeem peaked simultaneously on offense and defense in 93. You agree?


I think 93 or 94 are his best combination of O/D, yes. But I always figured his actual best offense was 94/95 (more polish) and best defense 89/90 ish (better motor over the year, stuff like that) even though in the playoffs he's got series that were probably his best defense ever (93 vs. SEA).

With defense I do tend to penalize slightly for weaker consistency/motor in the RS even if they step it up hugely in the playoffs. Case in point, Hakeem in 93, 94, Shaq in 01 (maybe his best defense in the playoffs but I've got him docked overall compared to 00), Lebron in 13 (same thing).

But you've seen exponentially more of him than I have so I'm willing to cede to your opinion. :)
But in his home dwelling...the hi-top faded warrior is revered. *Smack!* The sound of his palm blocking the basketball... the sound of thousands rising, roaring... the sound of "get that sugar honey iced tea outta here!"
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#49 » by trex_8063 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:16 pm

Some rambling thoughts about where I'm at......

On Robinson vs. Garnett
Robinson and Garnett are almost surely going to be my top two picks, but I'm really waffling about the order I want to put them in. drza's making some compelling arguments for Garnett, and both guys have had sort of a "floating" rank within my peaks list (such as it is). I had both guys roughly in the 7-9 range (along with Hakeem) going into this. Dr Spaceman had me convinced to push Robinson to the front, but as he's gone a touch quiet and drza's been so active in Garnett's favor.......man, from a political standpoint, it really illustrates the effectiveness of campaigning!

On Magic vs. Oscar
I was thinking Magic would probably be my 3rd ballot, but how do you guys rate a Magic vs. Oscar comparison?
Despite the raw numbers of Oscar's career, I think Magic was probably the more impressive rebounding PG (pace and shooting% differences). I like Magic better as a passer/play-maker (GOAT?). Better scorer is close and I'm not sure who I'd go with there (leaning perhaps slightly toward Oscar). Defensively, Oscar certainly has the much better reputation; I guess my question would be how large we feel that defensive gap is? Oscar's record of team success appears somewhat below expectation in a few years of his prime; although fwiw I recall someone (in another thread) had provided some with/without data on Oscar and Jerry, and Oscar's was super-impressive. Was Oscar's supporting cast just under-achieving throughout much of his prime? And if so, did Oscar have anything to do with it? fwiw, I think Magic is the better (certainly more likable) teammate; is it possible that Oscar's surly demeanor isn't conducive to a winning culture with some groups of individuals? idk.....not trying to lay blame at his door, but just spit-ballin'.
Add it all up and where does that leave us on this comparison?

Magic/Oscar vs. Walton
I'm newly kind of considering Walton for my third ballot, too (need to try and watch some more game tape in the next 12-18 hours). He's a difficult one for me to rank. His numbers are not overly impressive in the company of other players we're considering; and yet his impact seems almost other-worldly. And as such, it seems he should at least be in the conversation.
And as I'd previously (in response to eminence, I think) said that I think predilection for big-men so far in this project is only natural because they (in most eras, at least) have a greater capacity/potential to impact the game on BOTH sides of the court.........anyway, I find myself thinking about yet another big man.


I'm otherwise working out a detailed rebuttle on an argument I should probably just let die, but I'm too damn OCD.....
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#50 » by SideshowBob » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:16 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
And not that I'm considering him just yet, but what do you guys think of Connie Hawkins? Around what company does he enter the conversation? I realize the ABA in the late 60's was a touch weak, but man he was crushing it; and was still All-NBA 1st team (post-injury) when he hit the NBA in '70, fwiw.
I've been of the opinion that he could at least be considered just after guys like Barkley/Moses/Dirk/Karl. What do you guys think?


Bumping this quote of mine to give it one more chance at a reply. Seriously, what do you guys think of Connie Hawkins? I feel he has a pretty decent case for top 25 (maybe higher) peak.


Quite frankly, not much. I'm just weak on the ABA guys outside of Doc (and Gilmore to a lesser extent). I'm guessing he dips because his defense isn't highly regarded?

Anyone more knowledgeable willing to chime in?
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#51 » by SideshowBob » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:19 pm

mtron929 wrote:
Spoiler:
I am not voting for this project but I feel very strongly about Kevin Garnett so I think this is the time to post this. I realize that he is probably going to be voted in as the #8th best peak player of all time in this thread, so this post won't make much of a difference in changing people's mind. But I really think he is overrated as a player and the selection of Garnett (mostly based on advanced statistics) is one of the big flaws of advanced statistics in general.

1) If you looked at who got selected (#1-#7) in this project and just concentrate on somewhat "modern" players, these were all players who were clearly the #1 option on their respective teams (Jordan, Lebron, Shaq, Olajuwon, Tim Duncan). Moreover, their team all won the championship (if we are counting Lebron's 2013 as his best season). Now, Garnett is the first player picked who goes against the trend. That said, we still have other players (e.g. Dirk 2011, Wade 2006) who have taken average players to the promised land so I find it interesting that Garnett's 2004 season is being considered above other cases that have resulted in championships. Moreover, Garnett's team missed the playoffs three years in a row after the 2004 season. So is it that Garnett dropped off so much from his 2004 season or that even at similar level, he couldn't carry his teammates to the 8th spot in the West. Do we have any doubt that someone like Lebron, Shaq, Olajuwon, or Duncan could have netted at least 1 playoff birth here? These are some of the things to think about.

2) One thing that people love about Garentt is his advanced stats. Moreover, the type of people who contribute in these threads will point towards a lot of advanced stats to make quantitative arguments on who should be ranked over one another. However, I think that too much emphasis is being put on advanced stats to essentially separate between 8th/9th/10th best peaks in these rankings. This is akin to predicting which students will excel in college based on SAT scores that differ by 5-10% and putting so much weight on these scores to select who is better.

3) With Garnett, I am always reminded that he might try too hard (which is not always good). I suspect that especially in the 2004 season, Garnett might have treated the regular season like the playoffs, because this was the first time in which he had legitimate team and given his history of never winning a playoff series, I would not be surprised if he treated this season like the playoffs. Now, this is good and all, but this type of "effort" distorts the true value of a player and his capabilities since many of the superstars (especially when they hit their peak years, 27-29 years old), scale it down in the regular season. That is, they have been through many different playoff wars and begin to learn about pacing in the regular season and turning it on in the playoffs (this is one of the reasons why you see such monster stats from players in their early/mid 20's and then the numbers stabilize or dips). However, the stat heads always assume that all players give the fullest effort. Because if that reference state changes, then the statistical argument just gets thrown out the window. That is, the statistics just cannot capture that a player can still be very great while taking it easy in the regular season, and then playing harder to win in the playoffs.

So all in all, I get that peple Love Garnett. They love his versatility and his portability. I believe that Garnett works very well if your team is very loaded (e.g. 2008-2010 Celtics) but as his teammates get worse and worse, his value (in terms of probability of winning a championship) drops much more so than other superstars. That is, if we re-run Garnett's career many times, you will rarely see a case where he can take a cast comparable to Olajuwon's 93-94 team, Dirk's 2011 team, or Wade's 2006 team, and win a championship "singlehandedly" for you. But these are the types of teams that you will have most likely in general. On top of that, I don't think you will ever see a situation where Garnett can take Lebron's 09 team (or similar caliber) and turn in a 60-65 win team. He never did this with the Timberwolves. Thus, Garnett's value is very very high when the team is stacked but other than that, I would rather gamble on Dirk or Wade in other scenarios. Is this the #8 peak player of all time? I think not.


I like to think I was pretty qualitatively focused in my Garnett post, at least offense wise.

You also have to consider that there's A.) solid evidence that Garnett was playing with casts far weaker than those guys ever did and B.) some folks just hold raising stacked teams in much higher value than raising weak teams.
But in his home dwelling...the hi-top faded warrior is revered. *Smack!* The sound of his palm blocking the basketball... the sound of thousands rising, roaring... the sound of "get that sugar honey iced tea outta here!"
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#52 » by trex_8063 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:21 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
And not that I'm considering him just yet, but what do you guys think of Connie Hawkins? Around what company does he enter the conversation? I realize the ABA in the late 60's was a touch weak, but man he was crushing it; and was still All-NBA 1st team (post-injury) when he hit the NBA in '70, fwiw.
I've been of the opinion that he could at least be considered just after guys like Barkley/Moses/Dirk/Karl. What do you guys think?


Bumping this quote of mine to give it one more chance at a reply. Seriously, what do you guys think of Connie Hawkins? I feel he has a pretty decent case for top 25 (maybe higher) peak.


Quite frankly, not much. I'm just weak on the ABA guys outside of Doc (and Gilmore to a lesser extent). I'm guessing he dips because his defense isn't highly regarded?


That's good to know. I actually didn't know much of anything about his defensive reputation. Do you have anything (anecdotes, testimonials, etc) to back that up?
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#53 » by bastillon » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:27 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
bastillon wrote:Hakeem peaked simultaneously on offense and defense in 93. You agree?


I think 93 or 94 are his best combination of O/D, yes. But I always figured his actual best offense was 94/95 (more polish) and best defense 89/90 ish (better motor over the year, stuff like that) even though in the playoffs he's got series that were probably his best defense ever (93 vs. SEA).

With defense I do tend to penalize slightly for weaker consistency/motor in the RS even if they step it up hugely in the playoffs. Case in point, Hakeem in 93, 94, Shaq in 01 (maybe his best defense in the playoffs but I've got him docked overall compared to 00), Lebron in 13 (same thing).

But you've seen exponentially more of him than I have so I'm willing to cede to your opinion. :)


The thing about Hakeem in 89/90 is that his man defense was considerably weaker than it was in 93/94. He was still a monster but older Hakeem had better sense of when his opponent was making him jump on a pump-fake. I don't think I've ever seen a better man defender than Hakeem 93/94. That period is what separates him significantly from anybody but Nate Thurmond.

I also think he was better offensively in 93 than in 95, despite weaker stats in the playoffs. The thing is, you have to take context into account. First, Hakeem had incredibly difficult opponents in 93 (Larry Brown Clippers and anti-Hakeem Sonics). Second, team structure clearly wasn't there yet. Cassell wasn't there yet, Horry was a rookie, obviously no Drexler who helped his offense quite a bit. That is why Hakeem looks worse in comparison statistically. But if you watch the tape, he looks considerably quicker, more athletic and far better motor. For example Hakeem had exhaustion issues in 94 WCF, that didn't happen in 93 despite exerting much more energy. You may argue that Hakeem had a better jumpshot in 95 because that was definitely the case. But I would still take his 93 version because of stamina and athleticism.
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#54 » by SideshowBob » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:31 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
Bumping this quote of mine to give it one more chance at a reply. Seriously, what do you guys think of Connie Hawkins? I feel he has a pretty decent case for top 25 (maybe higher) peak.


Quite frankly, not much. I'm just weak on the ABA guys outside of Doc (and Gilmore to a lesser extent). I'm guessing he dips because his defense isn't highly regarded?


That's good to know. I actually didn't know much of anything about his defensive reputation. Do you have anything (anecdotes, testimonials, etc) to back that up?


Unfortunately not really.

bast brought him up in his top 10 worst defenders amongst star big men thread, but there was some disagreement there.

I'm sure he can expand some. Other than that, I don't really spot anything of major substance, though I'll post anything I find.
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#55 » by Clyde Frazier » Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:44 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
And not that I'm considering him just yet, but what do you guys think of Connie Hawkins? Around what company does he enter the conversation? I realize the ABA in the late 60's was a touch weak, but man he was crushing it; and was still All-NBA 1st team (post-injury) when he hit the NBA in '70, fwiw.
I've been of the opinion that he could at least be considered just after guys like Barkley/Moses/Dirk/Karl. What do you guys think?


Bumping this quote of mine to give it one more chance at a reply. Seriously, what do you guys think of Connie Hawkins? I feel he has a pretty decent case for top 25 (maybe higher) peak.


Quite frankly, not much. I'm just weak on the ABA guys outside of Doc (and Gilmore to a lesser extent). I'm guessing he dips because his defense isn't highly regarded?

Anyone more knowledgeable willing to chime in?


Well, he did have a solid year his 1st season in the NBA. In 69-70, he put up 24.6 PPG, 10.4 RPG and 4.8 APG on 56.3% TS (+5.2% vs. league avg).

He also took the lakers to 7 games in the first round, who would go on to make the finals that year. He put up 25.4 PPG, 13.9 RPG and 5.9 APG in the series. TS% dropped to 1.4% below league avg, but he still got to the line 9.4 times per game on 81.8% shooting. Lakers also ranked 4th in defense that season.

Unfortunately, there’s barely any footage of him available from that series. Dipper 13 was able to dig up some highlights for me a while back:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8QJQpUH-to&t=6m11s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNw0c19DhIU&t=24m30s

I think he deserves a closer look in a peaks project.

Also, regarding the ABA in general, the league was much stronger by the early to mid 70s. There were plenty of talented players in the league during that time:

Dan Issel, Billy Cunningham, David Thompson, Swen Nater, George McGinnis, Mel Daniels, Bobby Jones, George Gervin, Rick Barry, Roger Brown, Larry Kenon, James Silas, Marvin Barnes, Louie Dampier, Charlie Scott, Billy Paultz

The majority of which had success in both the ABA and the NBA.
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#56 » by Quotatious » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:07 pm

SideshowBob wrote:FWIW, I'm not really trying to measure them in a vacuum, I'm more concerned with how much they can shift the needle on any random team (or the average team) - the point is that they will not retain the same impact across teams, so let's best sum up what we think their average would be in 10 or 100 or 1000 different possibilities. Then portability is essentially the variance, less portable players are high variance, more portable players are low variance. By this logic, it follows that a less portable player might actually be better suited to carry a weaker cast, which we do actually observe, but how important is this if you're trying to build a title level team? Obviously this is no perfect art, I've admitted I think I could be a bit more precise, a bit more consistent with some of my rating criteria, but I like the thought process behind this.

Thanks for the clarification. I admit that my point about you supposedly trying to assign SRS-like values to players "in a vacuum" was logically incorrect, because you can't assign "impact" values out of context to a single player who who participates in a team game. Image Besides, "impact" always means "impact on something", so it cannot exist in a "vacuum".

Anyway, you can see how close those comparisons have been so far, if you had Shaq, MJ and LeBron all tied at 8.0, or Bird/Hakeem/Wilt or Duncan/Garnett tied based on your calculations. So, I guess it really comes to portability, and little details in terms of skill-set (like for example in the Bird/Hakeem/Wilt comparison, I guess that Wilt's bad FT shooting could be such an issue, and a reason why you would take Bird and Olajuwon over him (for me, Shaq's bad FT shooting and his lack of shooting touch/range past 10-12 feet was an issue compared to Jordan and LeBron).

SideshowBob wrote::lol: Yeah you do, and I think its great - I was even going to mention that earlier when you talked about project MVPs (throwing you in there and also Spaceman - he's been pushing against the conventional thinking with Robinson and also bringing up Curry/Dirk/etc. early, not to mention those extensive writeups).

Thanks. I think The-Power had some outstanding posts in the earlier threads, too (but his participation has been kinda inconsistent because IIRC he said he's really busy right now.

Oh, and IIRC, I was the first person who mentioned Curry, because I saw people mentioning Bird and Magic and I thought that Curry was comparable (then you and Spaceman started to elaborate on that topic).
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#57 » by eminence » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:09 pm

1st Ballot: Kevin Garnett 03-04 - Think he had a unique impact for a big man in history in being able to be a perimeter/high post threat offensively and still be a menacing defender in the post. Been lots of good write ups on him (ssb)

2nd Ballot: David Robinson 94-95 - I see him as the closest comparison to Russell defensively in the modern era. Can't really say he had a single defensive weakness even when compared to the other all time greats (maybe a bit weak relatively on the glass). His offensive faceup game was deadly, and I could see him really thriving in one of today's pick and roll heavy style offenses.

3rd Ballot: Bill Russell 64-65 - The defensive GOAT for many, very tough to pick one season for him because he was so consistent. I went with '65 because it felt like he was at close to his peak in so many areas: defense, boards, efficiency, passing. In defensive talent I have him even with Robinson, but due to playing in a different era (no 3pt) those same talents allowed him to dominate much more on that end.

These three could see the end of defense for awhile, as it figures to be an offensive barrage for the coming threads (Walton fighting for a spot as well).
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#58 » by 70sFan » Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:00 pm

I'm suprised to see someone mention Connie to be fair. That's a good question. He dominated ABA during time when NBA was clearly stronger league. I don't think he would be clearly the best player in the NBA in any year to ve fair.
On the other hand, his NBA rookie season is quite spectacular, he played great vs LAL. I think that if you are high on sheer dominance, he should be in your top 20-25. I think he has a case even if you factor portability. He would be great in today NBA in my opinion.
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#59 » by drza » Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:41 pm

E-Balla wrote:There's an astounding lack of Bill Russell in here. I mean this is a guy who had the Celtics defense playing at a -10+ level. I mean we have seen votes going to guys like D Rob and KG mainly for their defense but a guy almost universally seen as noticably better on that end hasn't gotten any type of serious consideration. Now I get that those two are better offensively but both guys have major offensive issues preventing them from being the first option on championship team without a guy like Sam Jones to help them on that end. I don't know I just feel like people are forgetting Russell and the massive impact he had on the floor overall.


Russell's been on every ballot I've submitted in this project so far, and he'll be on this one as well. KG and Russ will definitely be 1-2. Now that Duncan is in, I've got to make a decision on third on my ballot. My "honorable mentions" to date have been Robinson, Magic, Bird, Walton, and Oscar. It'll be one of that group, but I'm not sure which. I'll have to marinate on it for a minute to see where I'm going next
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Re: Peak Project #8 

Post#60 » by The-Power » Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:01 pm

My first two ballots didn't change. There was a lot of great stuff posted about KG but since I was very high on him from the beginning (had him at #5 overall) it doesn't surprise me. Sideshow's breakdown was brilliant, though, it was a pleasure to read. That KG's offense isn't adequately tracked by the box score is well known, but I was aware of it and still deliberately choose Robinson ahead of him. It's indeed extremely close, but I rate Robinson's defense still a tad higher and while I see the argument for Garnett's more resilient offensive play, Robinson's game was a) very resilient during the regular season which counts for something in my book, b) Robinson's impact during the postseason was still extremely high, even though his scoring game suffered and c) I can't punish him for not being used to his absolute best too much. I see the case for Garnett, though, and can't fault anyone for picking him ahead of DRob.

Consequently, I have:

1st ballot: 1995 Robinson
2nd ballot: 2004 Garnett

I'm hovering between many players for the 3rd ballot, including Russell, Magic, Curry, Wade and Bird. I can see an argument for everyone of these guys, as well as for some other players, but ultimately I decided to side with Magic. I can't explain myself in great detail for now, unfortunately. But some points in short:
1. I don't necessarily believe his defensive impact was negative. The way the game was played back in the 80s allowed Magic to be not exploited by quick guards becasue the paint was stacked and drives to the paint were a) more difficult and b) therefore not the method to use and PnR-offense wasn't really prevalent back then for several reasons, i.e. his lack of relative speed or relative mobility wasn't really being exploited by opponents either. The lack of spacing allowed Magic to not be a negative for his defense for his physical presence alone. It's really that simple: many guys in the paint means you have an advantage when your PG is tall and can contest shots, grab rebounds, use his body. At times Magic was prone to effort-issues but they weren't something extraordinary for offensive star-players.
2. In his era he was absolutely elite in leading an offense. During his by far best season, 1987, he led an elite offense and while having guys like Kareem, Worthy and Scott certainly helped, Magic was the best offensive player on that team by a mile and the clear catalyst of everything they did on offense. He played an incredibly efficient high-tempo game but understood the flow of the game like almost no other player, he knew when to slow the pace down and he also knew where the ball had to be. And it helps that he was an outstanding passer combined with a size advantage against his opponents.
3. His scoring game is something we have to consider carefully. Usually it wasn't good enough to separate himself from other great PGs in history, especially the most recent ones in Paul, Curry and Nash. If not for 1987 I might not choose him first of that bunch but his 1987 campaign was incredible even as a scorer. People gave him his midrange-shot at any time but a) this had something to do with his playmaking his opponents feared and b) he punished defenses for daring him to shoot that season, i.e. why should we force us to find the fault? He could use his size advantage in the post, sure, but it wasn't his natural game and what separates his '87-self from prior seasons is his jumper and therefore the ability to exploit what defenses chose to give him without overusing it or losing his playmaking at all.

Ergo:
3rd ballot: 1987 Magic

But as I said at the beginning this is no clear choice and there are many guys to consider and all of them have a legit case. My mind might change as well, be it during this project or later, but one has to choose and that's what I did.

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