Analyzing Lebron's defensive activity via DFGAs

Moderators: Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier

DQuinn1575
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,954
And1: 713
Joined: Feb 20, 2014

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#41 » by DQuinn1575 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:23 pm

bondom34 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
See my first post in the thread. That's what I was talking about, we know that a player's defensive FG% against doesn't mean much. So I'm not sure what this is telling us either.



By which I don't know what is inferred. Simply running around aimlessly isn't accomplishing anything. Knowing positioning/where to be/when to be there, and timing it best is ideal defensively.



I'd say in general it is. There's 1 ball on the court and 5 defenders. Think this was a Ben Taylor quote but in general what's overrated the most by fans seems to be on ball offense and on ball defense, because it creates highlights. But it's overall a relatively small portion of the game.



Tracking yields pretty poor results, so do steals and blocks. I'm not sure what you're saying by "RAPM yields poor results" when it's in general shown pretty decent results. Far better than whatever tracking has managed, especially in measuring actual impact on games. Giannis was 3rd on the Bucks last year in steals/36 and in DFGA/36, he remained 1st in 3 year DRAPM and was clearly the best defender in the NBA and on his own team. Using the box score to try to measure defense is just not a way to go, this isn't even a stats type take overall, its been pretty commonly known for a while.

Just counting steals/blocks, and in this case tracking stuff isn't terribly informative in terms of measuring actual impact on a game. And again given that preventing a shot would actually make this look "worse" for a player but be an unambiguously better outcome for the defense, I don't see the point.

If a player defends a shot he's "active", if he prevents the opponent from shooting he's "not as active" but its absolutely a better outcome.

Edit: Here's a quick glance at a team level of the teams who defend the most FGA/game:

Image

These teams defensive ranks:

25th
14th
12th
30th
2nd
9th
18th

Just a glance at the top 7 but they include 2 bottom 5 defenses, and the team who's defending the most shots per game is actually the worst defense. I'm just saying...I'm not sure this data is actually informing us of anything regarding anyone's defense.


I think I’m missing something as it looks like you just pulled def field goals attempts per game. That tells you very little about a defense. If you want to look to test the theory presented, you should look at total field goals defended divided by field goals against and see how that compares to defensive rating. If the correlation is high, the the OP has some valid questions. If the result is noise, then we would draw a no conclusion.
I’d be interested in someone doing this, to see if the numbers follow all of the comments.

Nope, was pulling from the defense dashboard:

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/defense-dash-overall/?sort=D_FGA&dir=1

The list of teams is similar, though not identical to a team's opponent FGA. As well, from Partnow's stuff it seems like the correlation of an individual's DFG% to anything is pretty random.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/opponent/?sort=OPP_FGA&dir=1

Bottom here is still kinda similar, but different values and ordered Nets, Thunder, Jazz, Bucks, Kings, Hawks, Spurs, Warriors (similar teams, different order). It's not really indicating anything at that level either.



No, you're basically looking at the same data, with hardly anything different - one view has Brooklyn at 94.3, the other 94.1 -
it's not like every shot but 0.2 per game are contested - I havent spent enough time at this site- but you don't have this right.
VanWest82
RealGM
Posts: 19,728
And1: 18,218
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#42 » by VanWest82 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:52 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:I think I’m missing something as it looks like you just pulled def field goals attempts per game. That tells you very little about a defense. If you want to look to test the theory presented, you should look at total field goals defended divided by field goals against and see how that compares to defensive rating. If the correlation is high, the the OP has some valid questions. If the result is noise, then we would draw a no conclusion.
I’d be interested in someone doing this, to see if the numbers follow all of the comments.


You're never going to get anywhere on defended shots alone without looking at opponent FG% regardless of how you break them up. Despite the admittedly confusing title, I was never suggesting DFGA or % of DFGA by itself is in any way correlated to DRTG. That's just a strawman presented to deflect from the question I have been asking: How much credit can/should one player get when they do less actual stuff on defense than their teammates?

The conversation about % of DFGA being a bad proxy for defensive activity is interesting. I agree there are some holes in it but when looked at alongside other activity measures, and against players on other teams in similar defensive roles, I think it counts as activity evidence, for a lack of a better word.
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 66,716
And1: 50,290
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#43 » by bondom34 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:04 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
I think I’m missing something as it looks like you just pulled def field goals attempts per game. That tells you very little about a defense. If you want to look to test the theory presented, you should look at total field goals defended divided by field goals against and see how that compares to defensive rating. If the correlation is high, the the OP has some valid questions. If the result is noise, then we would draw a no conclusion.
I’d be interested in someone doing this, to see if the numbers follow all of the comments.

Nope, was pulling from the defense dashboard:

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/defense-dash-overall/?sort=D_FGA&dir=1

The list of teams is similar, though not identical to a team's opponent FGA. As well, from Partnow's stuff it seems like the correlation of an individual's DFG% to anything is pretty random.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/opponent/?sort=OPP_FGA&dir=1

Bottom here is still kinda similar, but different values and ordered Nets, Thunder, Jazz, Bucks, Kings, Hawks, Spurs, Warriors (similar teams, different order). It's not really indicating anything at that level either.



No, you're basically looking at the same data, with hardly anything different - one view has Brooklyn at 94.3, the other 94.1 -
it's not like every shot but 0.2 per game are contested - I havent spent enough time at this site- but you don't have this right.

From that very site's glossary:

Image

https://www.nba.com/stats/help/glossary/

Its not very different, but not the same, and per the site's own definitions not the same.

Plus, knowing that DFG%s are so variant, doesn't measure anything related to impact.

For the Nets for example:

Image
Per this, Harden would be their most impactful defender, followed by Irving.

And if you go to their totals:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-overall/?CF=PLAYER_LAST_TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*bkn&sort=D_FGA&dir=1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals

Their count is slightly off, but then OKC:

They've made no in season trades:


Image
Add up these totals, divide by 26 games played and it comes to 93.0 shots defended per game, which matches up.

Posted another tool to show who guards an opponent's highest usage players, and this isn't a measure of impact for a defender.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
VanWest82
RealGM
Posts: 19,728
And1: 18,218
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#44 » by VanWest82 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:35 pm

bondom34 wrote:And given there are other ways to measure who's defending the opponent's top options, not really sure what the thread is attempting to get at.


I've explained to you several times now what the thread is attempting to get at and you're willfully ignoring it and continuing to try and draw strawman arguments correlating DFGA to DRTG.

Simply put, the point of the thread was to illustrate that Lebron's defensive activity level is low. DFGA is a reasonable proxy for that. Yes you can find guys who get attacked more or less which skews their numbers some, but as I showed in the Siakam/Giannis/Lebron comparison, which you proved was a really good one based on your graph showing time spent guarding 1st, 2nd, 3rd-5th options, those guys are way more active defenders and shot contesters in highly similar roles.

Any argument that says Lebron deters all the shots from happening but DPOY Giannis doesn't falls flat. Occum's razor: Lebron is just helping less than those guys.

If you are a low activity defender who spends most of their time away from the ball, how much credit should you get for the overall performance of the defense? That's the relevant question, not whether DFGA = DRTG.
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 66,716
And1: 50,290
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#45 » by bondom34 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:38 pm

VanWest82 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:And given there are other ways to measure who's defending the opponent's top options, not really sure what the thread is attempting to get at.


I've explained to you several times now what the thread is attempting to get at and you're willfully ignoring it and continuing to try and draw strawman arguments correlating DFGA to DRTG.

Simply put, the point of the thread was to illustrate that Lebron's defensive activity level is low. DFGA is a reasonable proxy for that. Yes you can find guys who get attacked more or less which skews their numbers some, but as I showed in the Siakam/Giannis/Lebron comparison, which you proved was a really good one based on your graph showing time spent guarding 1st, 2nd, 3rd-5th options, those guys are way more active defenders and shot contesters.

Any argument that says Lebron deters all the shots from happening but DPOY Giannis doesn't falls flat. Occum's razor: Lebron is just helping less than those guys.

If you are a low activity defender who spends most of their time away from the ball, how much credit should you get for the overall performance of the defense? That's the relevant question, not whether DFGA = DRTG.

It's not a measure of that though. You can pick out a million examples. This feels like a thread started frankly to try to discredit Lebron using a flimsy methodology. And using the time spent guarding opposing players he guards the opponent's highest usage option more than the examples given prior. If you're actually saying he's guarding top options as much as the reigning DPOY, I'm guessing he's pretty darn great defensively and very much impactful and active.

Using steals, Jordan was no higher than 5th in steals/36 on some Bulls title teams and well lower in blocks. By this I can only infer Jordan was a low activity defender. That's how flimsy this logic is.

DFGA isn't a measure of impact. It's not even a reliable measure of activity. I don't buy the Nets being the most active defense, or Harden/Irving their most active defenders. I've tried to see myself out but after even using the NBA.com glossary and showing the stat has no correlation here I am. To be blunt this was an attempt to try to drag Lebron using a flimsy methodology and it was called out by multiple people.

Edit: To add to all of this, simply being "active" doesn't make someone a better defender. Plenty of guys run around, but plenty of guys who are just active aren't doing as much to help as a player who's less active but smart.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
VanWest82
RealGM
Posts: 19,728
And1: 18,218
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#46 » by VanWest82 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:50 pm

bondom34 wrote:It's not a measure of that though. You can pick out a million examples. This feels like a thread started frankly to try to discredit Lebron using a flimsy methodology. And using the time spent guarding opposing players he guards the opponent's highest usage option more than the examples given prior. If you're actually saying he's guarding top options as much as the reigning DPOY, I'm guessing he's pretty darn great defensively and very much impactful and active.

None of the three guys spend much time guarding top options, though if I recall both Siakam and Giannis spent more time on the 1st and 2nd options than Lebron. All three spend somewhere between 70-80% of their time on 3rd-5th options (Lebron the most), presumably away from the ball. This is just another red herring. The point is they are all mostly off ball, but Siakam and Giannis find ways to contest more.

Using steals, Jordan was no higher than 5th in steals/36 on some Bulls title teams and well lower in blocks. By this I can only infer Jordan was a low activity defender. That's how flimsy this logic is.

Steals happen way less frequently than DFGA, but since you mentioned it, MJ was first among rotation guys in steals per 36 every year until the second threepeat when his defensive activity level did noticeably decline. I bet his DFGA did as well, but I also bet he wasn't last on those teams in DFGA per 36 among rotation guys either. (edit: bet he was way down there in 98 though)
VanWest82
RealGM
Posts: 19,728
And1: 18,218
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#47 » by VanWest82 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:04 am

bondom34 wrote:DFGA isn't a measure of impact. It's not even a reliable measure of activity. I don't buy the Nets being the most active defense, or Harden/Irving their most active defenders. I've tried to see myself out but after even using the NBA.com glossary and showing the stat has no correlation here I am. To be blunt this was an attempt to try to drag Lebron using a flimsy methodology and it was called out by multiple people.

You keep saying you're trying to see yourself out, and then you come back afterward and say you're not sure what the point of the thread is. Then you accuse me of looking for excuses to drag Lebron with crappy methodology which you demonstrate repeatedly that you're not even trying to understand the argument for when you keep saying DFGA isn't a measure of impact. The discussion is about activity. I even changed the thread title so hopefully people wouldn't continue to get confused.

Edit: To add to all of this, simply being "active" doesn't make someone a better defender. Plenty of guys run around, but plenty of guys who are just active aren't doing as much to help as a player who's less active but smart.

I agree with this in principle, but on the flip side lack of activity is surely not ideal even if you're being smart about it.
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 66,716
And1: 50,290
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#48 » by bondom34 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:25 am

VanWest82 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:It's not a measure of that though. You can pick out a million examples. This feels like a thread started frankly to try to discredit Lebron using a flimsy methodology. And using the time spent guarding opposing players he guards the opponent's highest usage option more than the examples given prior. If you're actually saying he's guarding top options as much as the reigning DPOY, I'm guessing he's pretty darn great defensively and very much impactful and active.

None of the three guys spend much time guarding top options, though if I recall both Siakam and Giannis spent more time on the 1st and 2nd options than Lebron. All three spend somewhere between 70-80% of their time on 3rd-5th options (Lebron the most), presumably away from the ball. This is just another red herring. The point is they are all mostly off ball, but Siakam and Giannis find ways to contest more.

Using steals, Jordan was no higher than 5th in steals/36 on some Bulls title teams and well lower in blocks. By this I can only infer Jordan was a low activity defender. That's how flimsy this logic is.

Steals happen way less frequently than DFGA, but since you mentioned it, MJ was first among rotation guys in steals per 36 every year until the second threepeat when his defensive activity level did noticeably decline. I bet his DFGA did as well, but I also bet he wasn't last on those teams in DFGA per 36 among rotation guys either.

Lebron was spending more time I'm pretty sure.

But again, off ball defense is generally of greater importance and comparing him to the actual DPOY seems to show that the entire point trying to be made was invalid.

And yes, steals happen less, and if we're using your own data we've got Kyrie defending more FGA than Durant so clearly Durant is slacking and Kyrie's the active defender. This data isn't measuring anything of any import.

VanWest82 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:DFGA isn't a measure of impact. It's not even a reliable measure of activity. I don't buy the Nets being the most active defense, or Harden/Irving their most active defenders. I've tried to see myself out but after even using the NBA.com glossary and showing the stat has no correlation here I am. To be blunt this was an attempt to try to drag Lebron using a flimsy methodology and it was called out by multiple people.

You keep saying you're trying to see yourself out, and then you come back afterward and say you're not sure what the point of the thread is. Then you accuse me of looking for excuses to drag Lebron with crappy methodology which you demonstrate repeatedly that you're not even trying to understand the argument for when you keep saying DFGA isn't a measure of impact. The discussion is about activity. I even changed the thread title so hopefully people wouldn't continue to get confused.

Edit: To add to all of this, simply being "active" doesn't make someone a better defender. Plenty of guys run around, but plenty of guys who are just active aren't doing as much to help as a player who's less active but smart.

I agree with this in principle, but on the flip side lack of activity is surely not ideal even if you're being smart about it.


I did yesterday then someone new quoted me, I tried to clarify with him and was quoted again.

Edit: NVM. Just NVM the whole thing. This didn't make a reasonable argument.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
VanWest82
RealGM
Posts: 19,728
And1: 18,218
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive activity via DFGAs 

Post#49 » by VanWest82 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:34 am

Posting a bunch of random DFGA numbers of guys on different teams with different roles and teammates isn't showing anything. There's a reason why I did Lebron vs. his own teammates over many years. It was to illustrate role context.

Doing the Siakam/Giannis/Lebron comparison provided further role context specific to Lebron's DFGA numbers because we could compare them vs. other guys who were being asked to do essentially the same things defensively.
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 66,716
And1: 50,290
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive activity via DFGAs 

Post#50 » by bondom34 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:39 am

OK...last attempt because I can't....so posting another team's numbers isn't showing anything (the Nets) but Lebron's team is showing something.

And him guarding the top option as much as the defensive player of the year is showing....he's not that great a defender? What's going on. I don't buy that Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn are better perimeter defenders than Butler, or that Kemba Walker is a better perimeter defender than Marcus Smart either. This just isn't a really intriguing case to be made.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
VanWest82
RealGM
Posts: 19,728
And1: 18,218
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive activity via DFGAs 

Post#51 » by VanWest82 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:08 am

DFGA numbers that show Kyrie and Harden getting attacked a bunch in games without KD or any semblance of help defense isn't saying anything other than about the current state of the Nets. Doing a KD vs. Lebron DFGA comparison makes some sense though as those guys have similar roles. KD is defending 12+ shots per 36 vs. 9+ for Lebron. Which one is likely more active as a help defender? Or are we still arguing Lebron is a deterrent but guys are just dying to go at KD?

Continuing to throw out random guys without any context is just muddying the waters intentionally. The idea that you can't use DFGA to provide better context to what's happening on defense within a team, or against similar players in a similar role on other teams is just willfully ignoring good evidence. It's only when you do stuff like trying to broadly correlate it with overall impact that you get into problems.
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,710
And1: 8,349
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#52 » by trex_8063 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:27 am

bondom34 wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Not the point I was making, but Korver was an underrated defender.

Underrated? Sure. One of the Hawks best perimeter defenders? I'm struggling there.


I would be inclined to agree.


bondom34 wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Enes Kanter and Serge Ibaka are defending near identical numbers of shots.

This is a pretty hard one for me to really buy into.


fwiw, even if it's true that [recently] their defensive impact is increasingly similar as stated, I noted Kanter had more DFGA/game in '19, too (despite playing marginally fewer mpg). I'd not remotely suggest he was a similar or better defender, though.


bondom34 wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Lowry has taken a step back defensively this year and isn't doing as much. It's an unspoken truth over at the Raptors board.

Taken a step back isn't saying he's a poor defender, and I don't think the same could be said of Irving.


Lowry was tied or trailing Kyle Kuzma in BOTH '18 and '19 in DFGA/game [despite playing larger minutes both years]. But, well.....you know.


As others have implied, there are instances in which good defense will not result in a DFGA [where, in fact, it will cause a DFGA to be avoided]. From the video linked below, for example, note the following plays:

1:34 - forces shot-clock violation in isolation [no DFGA]
1:53 - cuts off any shot opportunity, forces ball to be kicked out and reset [no DFGA]
2:01 - cuts off any shot opportunity, forces ball to be kicked out and reset [no DFGA]
4:07 - cuts off any shot opportunity, forces ball to be kicked out and reset [no DFGA]
7:57 - breaks up the play, forces a reset inbounds [no DFGA]

The other play I see with some regularity from him is an early rotation which eliminates an easy scoring opportunity. Suppose the action [maybe a pnr, maybe not] is occurring toward the left side of the court and Lebron is defending someone on the weak-side wing; suddenly an offensive player [maybe a roll-man, maybe another random cutter] is breaking to the basket off-ball. Lebron rotates down, perhaps preventing the pass from ever occurring, perhaps the pass still comes but the receiver then has to immediately kick out.....and maybe he kicks to Lebron's man and the scramble is on and it's a teammate who rotates out to **contest (**and unless I'm mistaken DFGA is merely recorded for whichever defensive player is closest to the play......doesn't necessarily indicate an effective contest; or am I completely wrong?). At any rate, in this instance it'd be Lebron who stopped the easy bucket by merely being there early, but he won't ultimately receive the DFGA.

Additionally, there are sometimes turnovers or other errors forced by early rotation, which often will NOT result in a steal credited to him [or a DFGA, obviously]. See plays at 5:01, 5:33, and 7:47 in the video below.

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 66,716
And1: 50,290
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#53 » by bondom34 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:31 am

trex_8063 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Not the point I was making, but Korver was an underrated defender.

Underrated? Sure. One of the Hawks best perimeter defenders? I'm struggling there.


I would be inclined to agree.


bondom34 wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Enes Kanter and Serge Ibaka are defending near identical numbers of shots.

This is a pretty hard one for me to really buy into.


fwiw, even if it's true that [recently] their defensive impact is increasingly similar as stated, I noted Kanter had more DFGA/game in '19, too (despite playing marginally fewer mpg). I'd not remotely suggest he was a similar or better defender, though.


bondom34 wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:Lowry has taken a step back defensively this year and isn't doing as much. It's an unspoken truth over at the Raptors board.

Taken a step back isn't saying he's a poor defender, and I don't think the same could be said of Irving.


Lowry was tied or trailing Kyle Kuzma in BOTH '18 and '19 in DFGA/game [despite playing larger minutes both years]. But, well.....you know.


As others have implied, there are instances in which good defense will not result in a DFGA [where, in fact, it will cause a DFGA to be avoided]. From the video linked below, for example, note the following plays:

1:34 - forces shot-clock violation in isolation [no DFGA]
1:53 - cuts off any shot opportunity, forces ball to be kicked out and reset [no DFGA]
2:01 - cuts off any shot opportunity, forces ball to be kicked out and reset [no DFGA]
4:07 - cuts off any shot opportunity, forces ball to be kicked out and reset [no DFGA]
7:57 - breaks up the play, forces a reset inbounds [no DFGA]

The other play I see with some regularity from him is an early rotation which eliminates an easy scoring opportunity. Suppose the action [maybe a pnr, maybe not] is occurring toward the left side of the court and Lebron is defending someone on the weak-side wing; suddenly an offensive player [maybe a roll-man, maybe another random cutter] is breaking to the basket off-ball. Lebron rotates down, perhaps preventing the pass from ever occurring, perhaps the pass still comes but the receiver then has to immediately kick out.....and maybe he kicks to Lebron's man and the scramble is on and it's a teammate who rotates out to **contest (**and unless I'm mistaken DFGA is merely recorded for whichever defensive player is closest to the play......doesn't necessarily indicate an effective contest; or am I completely wrong?). At any rate, in this instance it'd be Lebron who stopped the easy bucket by merely being there early, but he won't ultimately receive the DFGA.

Additionally, there are sometimes turnovers or other errors forced by early rotation, which often will NOT result in a steal credited to him [or a DFGA, obviously]. See plays at 5:01, 5:33, and 7:47 in the video below.


1. Wanted to say this is an excellent post as usual.

2. Re: Lowry/Kuzma...yep, which is again why I'd say for the umpteenth time this seems unreliable.

3. The bolded I believe is true as well. It's not a measure of effectiveness in any way. It could be someone blindly sticking a hand up and if they're within 3.5 ft of the shooter/the closest player, it's a defended attempt.

But great post, and the video of why/how other things aren't tracked in the box score effect defense. A box score/tracking isn't really a reliable measure of defense.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
VanWest82
RealGM
Posts: 19,728
And1: 18,218
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive activity via DFGAs 

Post#54 » by VanWest82 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:37 am

Just so I understand the argument here, we're saying that Lebron is making a bunch of early reads in rotation to deter shots from happening that other good off ball forwards (Giannis, Siakam, KD, Draymond, Kawhi, etc.) aren't making and that's why he's defending less shots?

I'm not saying that stuff doesn't happen but it sure feels like we're jumping through a lot of mental hoops to avoid stating the obvious.

Edit: re faulty tracking camera theory, I think it's interesting that player DFGA readings are not only pretty consistent for guys within the same role year to year but also match the eye test when someone's role changes or they're hurt or make a leap, etc. (i.e. it accurately records the dip/increase). In any event, I think it's highly unlikely that the cameras are just picking on Lebron. If they're a little off, they're a little off for everyone and that small error becomes evenly spread over the course of a season.
User avatar
Heej
General Manager
Posts: 8,469
And1: 9,171
Joined: Jan 14, 2011

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive activity via DFGAs 

Post#55 » by Heej » Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:44 pm

What this analysis fails to realize is that preventing a shot from being taken is even more valuable than contesting one. There's no public data available that can accurately model that. Also, teams have admitted to running actions away from LeBron's side of the floor in order to take him out of the play just like they do with Kawhi. This in turn has a bit of a constricting effect on the defense because now you're asking LeBron to be the weakside tag and closeout guy which he's been forever effective at.
LeBron's NBA Cup MVP is more valuable than either of KD's Finals MVPs. This is the word of the Lord
VanWest82
RealGM
Posts: 19,728
And1: 18,218
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive activity via DFGAs 

Post#56 » by VanWest82 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:47 pm

Heej wrote:What this analysis fails to realize is that preventing a shot from being taken is even more valuable than contesting one. There's no public data available that can accurately model that. Also, teams have admitted to running actions away from LeBron's side of the floor in order to take him out of the play just like they do with Kawhi. This in turn has a bit of a constricting effect on the defense because now you're asking LeBron to be the weakside tag and closeout guy which he's been forever effective at.


What this rebuttal to the analysis fails to realize is that plenty of other off ball defensive forwards, some with perhaps even better reps than Lebron (Giannis, Draymond, Isaac, Kawhi, Siakam, KD, Gordon, Covington, Simmons, etc.) are likely being avoided and deterring shots with equal or even greater frequency due to their higher level defensive activity, and yet they're also defending more actual shots. This type of specific-only-to-Lebron deterrent theory feels a lot like base rate fallacy.
User avatar
Heej
General Manager
Posts: 8,469
And1: 9,171
Joined: Jan 14, 2011

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive activity via DFGAs 

Post#57 » by Heej » Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:40 am

VanWest82 wrote:
Heej wrote:What this analysis fails to realize is that preventing a shot from being taken is even more valuable than contesting one. There's no public data available that can accurately model that. Also, teams have admitted to running actions away from LeBron's side of the floor in order to take him out of the play just like they do with Kawhi. This in turn has a bit of a constricting effect on the defense because now you're asking LeBron to be the weakside tag and closeout guy which he's been forever effective at.


What this rebuttal to the analysis fails to realize is that plenty of other off ball defensive forwards, some with perhaps even better reps than Lebron (Giannis, Draymond, Isaac, Kawhi, Siakam, KD, Gordon, Covington, Simmons, etc.) are likely being avoided and deterring shots with equal or even greater frequency due to their higher level defensive activity, and yet they're also defending more actual shots. This type of specific-only-to-Lebron deterrent theory feels a lot like base rate fallacy.

Lol what you fail to realize is that you're just spurting that stuff out there without any real due diligence as far as how they're being employed in their schemes. Not to mention there's a lot more that encompasses holistic defensive impact, especially in regards to communication and directing traffic. The only person in the league better than LeBron at that is Draymond imo.

I wouldn't be even slightly surprised if those guys you mentioned altered more shots, but I highly doubt that in the aggregate every single one of those guys blows up more plays than LeBron does. We see this year after year lol. People that don't watch are down on LeBron's defense and it always turns out that he has decent defensive metrics and right around playoff time Zach Lowe will go on his pod and mention how he talks to guys in front offices with proprietary analytics about how LeBron's doing on defense and every year they say something to the tune of "Lebrons still really f***ing good on defense".

Is he capable of anchoring a team of middling defenders like he did in 2016 when he and Tristan Thompson carried the Cavs to a top 10 DRTG? Doubt it. Is he capable of being a largely plus defender that synergizes extremely well with other heady defenders? If the last 3 years of Lakers basketball with wildly different supporting casts is anything to go by, provided you have a shred of logical faculties and aren't inherently biased, the answer to that question is an emphatic yes. You're probably trying too hard to be contrarian if you say otherwise. But considering your posting history in the Ben Taylor Greatest Peaks thread, I wouldn't put it past you to be someone that has a hard-on for being a contrarian from time to time VanWest (although I do appreciate the different perspectives because none of it seems to come from a place of maliciousness at the end of the day).
LeBron's NBA Cup MVP is more valuable than either of KD's Finals MVPs. This is the word of the Lord
VanWest82
RealGM
Posts: 19,728
And1: 18,218
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive activity via DFGAs 

Post#58 » by VanWest82 » Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:49 am

I'm not saying Lebron is a bad defender. I've repeatedly said he's a good defender, including in OP, that "we know Lebron is a good defender based on eye test and the fact that he's generally had negative net Drtg on/offs over the years."

People claim he's an all time great level defender. I'm not sure his activity level has always been all time great. He has an all time great defensive mind and feel for the game. He had all time great athleticism when he was younger. He's always been a bit of a DH in terms of energy expended on offense vs. defense. Perhaps that's because he moves smarter. I buy that. There's nothing incorrect in saying he's committed less energy defensively than a lot of other stars (and a lot of his teammates) over the years.

You guys are making this seem like I'm just making this all up. Lebron's made all defense only six times. Why? It's because voters watch basketball and see him visibly giving less effort some times vs. others and so they vote for the guys who are playing harder. What's your explanation for why he doesn't have more all defense given his obvious talent?

As an aside, I'm not so sure KLove shouldn't get some credit for "anchoring" that Cavs defense in 2016 Finals (11.6 DFGA, -14.8 DFG% diff). He was a sieve for most of the year but he had just as many big defensive stops vs. Warriors as anyone. None of the other series were even close. Lebron was incredible on both ends.
freethedevil
Head Coach
Posts: 7,262
And1: 3,237
Joined: Dec 09, 2018
         

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive impact via DFGAs 

Post#59 » by freethedevil » Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:12 am

VanWest82 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:I think I’m missing something as it looks like you just pulled def field goals attempts per game. That tells you very little about a defense. If you want to look to test the theory presented, you should look at total field goals defended divided by field goals against and see how that compares to defensive rating. If the correlation is high, the the OP has some valid questions. If the result is noise, then we would draw a no conclusion.
I’d be interested in someone doing this, to see if the numbers follow all of the comments.


You're never going to get anywhere on defended shots alone without looking at opponent FG% regardless of how you break them up. Despite the admittedly confusing title, I was never suggesting DFGA or % of DFGA by itself is in any way correlated to DRTG. That's just a strawman presented to deflect from the question I have been asking: How much credit can/should one player get when they do less actual stuff on defense than their teammates?

The conversation about % of DFGA being a bad proxy for defensive activity is interesting. I agree there are some holes in it but when looked at alongside other activity measures, and against players on other teams in similar defensive roles, I think it counts as activity evidence, for a lack of a better word.

What counts as "actual stuff" should be determined by what stuff affects how good your team's defense is which is why if the things you're citing don't correlate with the defnese getting better, I don't see the point in trying to argue against a wealth of holistic evidence on the basis of random things you --think-- are especially valuable.
VanWest82
RealGM
Posts: 19,728
And1: 18,218
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Analyzing Lebron's defensive activity via DFGAs 

Post#60 » by VanWest82 » Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:01 am

Heej wrote:But considering your posting history in the Ben Taylor Greatest Peaks thread, I wouldn't put it past you to be someone that has a hard-on for being a contrarian from time to time VanWest


Given what I said in the Greatest Peaks thread re MJ, and what I'm saying here what's more plausible, that I value MJ's defensive activity and question Lebron's or that I'm essentially being a troll? My opinion on this issue seems pretty consistent don't you think?

I also highly value the defensive activity from guys like Rodman and Draymond. They were not only smart defenders but active.

Return to Player Comparisons