James Harden is a superstar

[Krodis]

I mean, if people were taking the first 5 games as proof he's not a star, it's a fairly weak proof. (Leading the league in scoring with 5 assists/5 rebounds and above average TS%) If they were cherry-picking the last three games as proof, then that's just not fair, any more than cherry-picking the first two games would be fair as proof that Harden is the second coming of Jordan.

Still on the pro-Harden side and feel that if he hits jumpers at a normal rate (and his teammates step up a bit) he should be very very good. Then again I've seen more of Harden than probably anyone in this topic (or at least most people). Which hardly means you should take my word for it, I've certainly been wrong before.

[tsherkin]

The take-away here is that the sample is too small, which has been repeated ad nauseum by many.

2 games is too few; 3 games is too few. 5 games is still too few. 20 games is a good starting point, but even then, we need more games. At least at 20 games, though, we'll have some interesting basis for discussion. Right now, it's just nonsense.

[C-izMe]

I usually say 1000 minutes (or about 30 games) is the minimum sample size to make any claims. For different, more specific situations (let's say your making the claim that Dwight is only good against EC teams) you'll need at least a full season.

[Krodis]

Harden trying to get back to his season average in turnovers after realizing he was fairly low in the 4th.

[tsherkin]

I usually say 1000 minutes (or about 30 games) is the minimum sample size to make any claims. For different, more specific situations (let's say your making the claim that Dwight is only good against EC teams) you'll need at least a full season.

That's a fairly reasonable basic approach.

[Krodis]

hoopdata has Harden's splits by range through the first 5 games up. He's getting to the rim and making it at a similar rate to last year. (71.4% on 8.4 attempts per game). He's taking a fair amount more 16-23 foot jumpers, 3.8 a game, and hitting them at a fairly mediocre but not terrible 37%. Been ice cold from 3 though, which I think is what's really hurting his efficiency the most.

But yeah, 5 games.

[tsherkin]

Yeah, he's taking nearly 4x as many shots from 16-23 feet, but at the same FG% as last year (OK, down 1%). Not great, but fairly similar. He's getting owned from 3, but we notice the ~24% drop in assisted buckets isn't helping him any either, yes?

EDIT: Also, his FTR has dropped 9 points, back to its 2011 level. Still 0.5, which is insanely good.

[fallacy]

Harden vs the East: 41 points, 7 assists, 6.5 rebounds, 28-44 fg, 64 fg%, 6-14 3pt, 4.5 TO

Harden vs the West: 19 points, 3.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 17-57 fg, 29 fg%, 2-17 3pt, 5.3 TO

I guess I should update this


vs the East: 34 points, 5.3 assists, 6 rebounds, 34-58 fg, 58 fg%, 8-20 3pt, 4.6 TO

vs the West: 19 points, 3.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 17-57 fg, 29%, 2-17 3pt, 5.3 TO


Atleast he's turning the ball over consistantly?

Also, what the hell happened to his passing? He had 12 assists in his first game, he's averaged 3 a game since.

[Krodis]

He's getting owned from 3, but we notice the ~24% drop in assisted buckets isn't helping him any either, yes?

Certainly true. He's taken more bail out shots than he's had to previously and defenses aren't really helping off of him with the lack of other offensive threats on the floor, so he's not getting as many spot up attempts as he'd like. But still, three pointers are actually a SMALLER portion of his shots than they were the last few years, and I would hardly expect him to continue at sub-30%.

[Krodis]

Harden vs the East: 41 points, 7 assists, 6.5 rebounds, 28-44 fg, 64 fg%, 6-14 3pt, 4.5 TO

Harden vs the West: 19 points, 3.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 17-57 fg, 29 fg%, 2-17 3pt, 5.3 TO

I guess I should update this


vs the East: 34 points, 5.3 assists, 6 rebounds, 34-58 fg, 58 fg%, 8-20 3pt, 4.6 TO

vs the West: 19 points, 3.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 17-57 fg, 29%, 2-17 3pt, 5.3 TO


Atleast he's turning the ball over consistantly?

Also, what the hell happened to his passing? He had 12 assists in his first game, he's averaged 3 a game since.

His passing has been fine (aside from the turnovers), it just hasn't resulted in a lot of assists (doesn't help that Asik isn't exactly the world's greatest finisher, plus plenty of hard traps that have forced him to make early passes, rather than late passes). Plenty of hockey assists though.

[Krodis]

I would say, if there is one red flag, statistically, from the first 6 games for Harden it is the turnovers though.

[tsherkin]

Certainly true. He's taken more bail out shots than he's had to previously and defenses aren't really helping off of him with the lack of other offensive threats on the floor, so he's not getting as many spot up attempts as he'd like. But still, three pointers are actually a SMALLER portion of his shots than they were the last few years, and I would hardly expect him to continue at sub-30%.

It seems likely that he'll get over 30% from 3 eventually, yes.

Meantime, while proportionately he's taking fewer threes, he's actually taking 6.2 vs. 4.7 3PA/g, so his volume has increased in the absolute sense. It has increased to the point where unless you're Ray-Ray or Reggie, you generally shouldn't be taking that many threes, actually.

[Krodis]

On a per minute basis it's pretty much in the same range as Ginobili has been. (And it's probably inflated somewhat by the 10 he took in Game 1). And Gilbert Arenas had some efficient seasons north of this number, so I'm not too concerned about the volume of threes.

[fallacy]

I wish I could go back and find my season prediction for Harden but there have been so many different Harden threads I don't know if I can find it


EDIT: Found it

viewtopic.php?p=33440635#p33440635

He's not super overrated but he's not a max player either, he's in between. I predict he has a 22/5/5 on 44 fg%, 33 3pt%, 55 ts% season.

He's currently at 28/5/5 on 44 fg%, 25 3pt%, .565 ts%

I'm good at this

[fallacy]

Also, while looking for my post I found these...

by The Eminence on Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:04 pm

what a horrible trade for the Thunder. They are going to regret this for a long time.

by Chocolate City Jordanaire on Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:05 pm

Harden can win league MVP.

Harden has shut people up and so has Jeremy Lin. I am beyond shocked at how good James Harden is. He's without question in my mind better than Westbrook. If he keeps this up he's the second best player in the league and a better SG than Kobe or Wade.

Surely, he can't keep this up. Can he? I am serious about MVP. If Houston becomes a 50-win team and Harden averages 28 PPG, he's a lock IMO for MVP.

djsunyc on Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:10 pm

sam presti f cked this one up badly. holy moly. this guy may be better than durant lol...should've dumped westbrook who will soon be the target of every fan and media member for not being a "pg"...

Holy Jesus... All those guys have over ten thousand posts as well, they aren't trolls.

[CKRT]

That's the general board for you. Most decent talk about basketball occurs away from there.

[East_Coast]

He had a 4/16 night as a rookie (25%), and a 4/14 night (28.6%) that same season. He had a 3/17 night (17.6%) and a 5/20 night (25%) the season after, meaning that you did a terrible job checking, because that took me less than 30 seconds. 6/22 (27.3%) in 88. 4/16, 7/24 in 89. 5/18 in 90. 4/15, 5/17 in 92. 4/20 in 93 (20% bang-on). 7/28, 5/19, 8/27 in 95 (17-game regular season and 3 of them right there). 6/20, 7/26, 8/27 in 96. 7/25, 5/17 (twice) in 97. 2/17 (11.8%), 4/16 (twice), 7/25 in 98.

This basically annihilates your argument. And I haven't even touched on his 33.3% shooting nights, of which there are many.

So, I stand corrected on the MJ bad games. My argument wasn't "annihilated" because it was also noted that Jordan never looked as lost and clueless as Harden did in the Memphis game. That was the point I was really trying to make regarding Harden's on-court demeanor.

And the answer may well be "no," but there are too many contextual factors here and you are ignoring far too many pertinent details for your assessment to be valid. Even if, in the end, it turns out to be a fair judgement, your current assessment is no good, because your arguments are full of inaccuracies and misrepresentations.

My assessments will stand up to any fair scrutiny. Because a minor error is made, an entire argument is not invalidated.

[Krodis]

Harden didn't look lost and clueless in the Memphis game. He just missed a ton of jumpers.

[East_Coast]

Harden didn't look lost and clueless in the Memphis game. He just missed a ton of jumpers.

I thought he did. It seemed to me that in his eyes and demeanor, the weight of how hard it is to be a #1 option was finally dawning on him.

[CKRT]

Harden didn't look lost and clueless in the Memphis game. He just missed a ton of jumpers.

I thought he did. It seemed to me that in his eyes and demeanor, the weight of how hard it is to be a #1 option was finally dawning on him.

Either be constructive or cease to post. Disagreement is what this board thrives on. Sarcastic one-line posts are not. rrravenred