Post#613 » by Dr Positivity » Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:40 pm
I'm going to start a self-project where I go through the All-Time list with these thoughts
- Ring counting is overrated especially when the player is rated "the man" by the media. Finals as the man or championship as one of the next best players on a team are also rated as overrated
- Points per game is overrated
The opposite of these rules is therefore underrated. Elite seasons in non Finals years, or elite non points per game value
So here is my take on the top 10 players, who were the same on both ESPN's All Time List and the last RealGM top 100
Michael Jordan
Underrated reasons: From 87-90 has one of the greatest 4 year statistical stretches in history but in non-Finals seasons. One of the best non-points per game SGs of all time due to his historically good defense for a SG, rebounding, assists, efficiency.
Overrated reasons: Leads the NBA in scoring 10 times, all time points per game leader. 6 championship rings as undisputed Alpha. Scoring leader all 6 times.
Analysis: I lean overrated due to the immense combination of titles and PPG, including 6x the Ultimate Combo of both the PPG leader and the Alpha on a champion (which I think has happened only 2 other times post shot clock in 71 Kareem and 00 Shaq). The 87-90 stretch would rate as underrated but it's only 4 years.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Underrated reasons: Most of his greatest seasons in the 70s came without a title or Finals appearances. Went on to 6 titles but most of those are credited as Magic Johnson alpha seasons, with that being egregious in 1980. Strong in non-scoring areas as a rebounder, passing, efficiency and making many All-Defense teams for a C not typically placed with the great anchors.
Overrated reasons: The NBA’s all time leading scorer and finished top 5 in PPG 10 times, 6 championships and 10 Finals even if some of them weren’t as the guy. Both scoring leader and Alpha champion in 71.
Analysis: Slightly underrated. While his lack of titles in the 70s plays against him, his title count, Finals appearances and being the points king play in his favor. I'm leaning underrated because his underrated reasons are titled towards his prime and his overrated reasons are tilted towards his post-prime.
Lebron James
Underrated reasons: Historically elite non-points per game player for his position with efficiency, defense, passing, rebounding. Has lost in the Finals 4 times and didn’t make the Finals in arguably his two greatest statistical seasons in 2009 and 2010.
Overrated reasons: While only leading the league once, he has been top 5 in PPG the last 12 seasons including top 2 or 3 most of them. Has relatively few seasons in his prime where he didn’t make the Finals.
Analysis: Neutral. Strong PPG and titles/Finals player, though the historic 2009 and 2010 seasons get diluted due to not making the Finals.
Magic Johnson
Underrated reasons: Low points per game reliance compared to other stars at this level, he only finished top 10 once and it was 10th. Very strong in other stats including assists, rebounding, efficiency, steals.
Overrated reasons: Makes the Finals 9 of his first 12 seasons and wins 5 championships most as the man and in one he wasn't in 1980 he stole the show with his series clincher in 1980. Doesn’t make an All-Defensive team.
Analysis: Neutral. Gets a lot of legacy points for his titles but his non-PPG statline is enormous.
Wilt Chamberlain
Underrated reasons: Doesn’t win the title or make the Finals for many of his prime years and is blamed for some of them. Always one of the best rebounders in history and the second half of his career his excellence in non points per game stats in rebounding, defense, passing could be overlooked compared to the decline in points.
Overrated reasons: He leads the league in PPG 7 straight years and is top 5 for a few after and has some of the most media recognized points per game records
Analysis: Slightly underrated, early Wilt has high PPG but high other stats and isn't winning titles, probably about neutral, where I lean underrated is how Lakers Wilt is possibly underrated for being one of the great non-PPG centers of all time statistically, wins 1 title
Larry Bird
Underrated reasons: All time great non-points per game producer for his position with rebounding, assists, steals and makes All-Defense teams. 3 of his greatest statistical seasons in 85, 87, 88 he doesn’t win a title.
Overrated reasons: Wins 3 titles as the man and makes 5 Finals in a shorter prime than many. The 81 season, otherwise on the low end of his prime stats and including a shaky Finals statistically, is elevated by his championship. Finishes top four in points per game 4 straight years.
Analysis: Neutral. Like Magic his legacy leans on titles but he does have tons of non-PPG value and doesn't win the title in some mega seasons.
Bill Russell
Underrated: One of the least reliant on points per game of superstar, and defense, rebounding and assists combination gives him historic non-PPG value for a C.
Overrated reasons: Wins 11 titles and makes 12 Finals making him the king of championship value and giving him minimal seasons underrated for success reasons.
Analysis: Neutral with being on one end of the statistical split and the other end of the title valuing.
Tim Duncan
Underrated reasons: Only finishes top 5 in points per game once and elite non PPG value in defense, rebounding, passing. Has several of his best seasons seasons where he doesn’t make the Finals, including perhaps a candidate for his peak in 2002.
Overrated reasons: 5 championships and 6 Finals and usually considered the Alpha for the first four, perhaps too much over Robinson in 99 and Manu in 05.
Analysis: Neutral to slightly overrated. The rings help him a lot although he has a lot of value outside of points.
Shaquille O’Neal
Underrated reasons: Decent non PPG value in rebounding, assists, passing, efficiency, above average defensive career
Overrated: 4 championships and 6 Finals. Strong points per game career finishing top 3 8 straight years and top 4 9 times. Scoring leader and alpha champion in 2000.
Analysis: Slightly overrated as he has both a PPG friendly career and a lot of rings and titles success. Good non scoring value but lower than a lot of players in this top ten.
Hakeem Olajuwon
Underrated reasons: All time great non-PPG center with elite defense and steal/block great rebounding, passing. Many of his greatest seasons in his stretch from 87-93 lacked Finals appearances and general success, including possibly his peak in 93.
Overrated reasons: Finished top 4 in points per game four straight seasons (93-96) including top 3 in his title years and led the 94 and 95 playoffs in scoring. 2 titles and 3 Finals appearance. Gap between him and his teammates on 94 champions is perceived to be as high as anyone’s.
Analysis: Neutral. Legacy is helped a ton by 94 and 95 titles as the man but his 87-93 stretch is a great underrated candidate with crazy non PPG stats on non contending teams.
Overall analysis:
I don’t see anything hugely egregious in the rankings. These guys have been gone over with a fine toothed comb through the years so I guess that's not too surprising. I would claim Jordan fits the profile of overrated the most but since in the media he's a relatively unchallenged GOAT that could bring him down a notch or two and make him still a #1 contender. Shaq maybe fits the most of the other candidates. I'd probably pick Wilt as the most underrated, followed by Kareem. Both not winning championships a lot of years in their prime tends to underplay those seasons. In net this would suggest Wilt and Kareem are undervalued as GOAT contenders
Edit: 11-21 on ESPN's top 100 (I went to 21 since it includes KG)
Kobe Bryant
Underrated reasons: Two of his best seasons (2006 and 2007) came on non contending teams, solid passing and defense
Overrated reasons: Very PPG friendly player finishing top 5 12 times and leading twice, 3rd all time in scoring. 5 rings and 7 Finals.
Analysis: Overrated, nobody's legacy gets more out of points and rings combo
Oscar Robertson
Underrated reasons: No titles as the man with 1 title, 2 Finals. Excellent all around stats with passing, rebounding, efficiency. All of his best seasons came without making the Finals.
Overrated reasons: PPG friendly finishing top 5 9 times and 1st once, although in a small league.
Analysis: Underrated due to lack of titles/Finals as the man combined with strong non PPG value, overweighing that he is a high PPG player.
Jerry West
Underrated reasons: Only 1 title as the semi-man, elite combination of rebounding, assists, efficiency, defense for a guard.
Overrated reasons: Makes 9 Finals and is top 5 in scoring 6 times including leading once, would’ve been top 5 a few more times if he got banged up less and qualified. Some massive playoff scoring lines.
Analysis: Neutral to slightly underrated, has more team success than Oscar with the Finals appearances but on the whole is still short compared to many stars in titles as the man and has a strong non PPG statline.
Julius Erving
Underrated reasons: No NBA titles as the man, finishes top 5 in NBA scoring just twice. Strong all around game with defense, rebounding, passing.
Overrated reasons: In the NBA wins a title as secondary and makes the Finals as the man 3 other times. Wins 2 ABA titles and leads the league in scoring 3x, including two scoring leader and alpha on championship seasons.
Analysis: I’d lean towards underrated for NBA and overrated for ABA. Slightly underrated on the whole I guess if giving more priority to NBA.
Moses Malone
Underrated reasons: Several of his best seasons came in non Finals years including possibly his best in 82. Solid non-PPG value due to the elite rebounding.
Overrated: Has title and Finals as the man, finishes top 5 in PPG five straight years.
Analysis: Neutral to slightly overrated as a PPG friendly player with a title as the man.
Karl Malone
Underrated reasons: No title as the man. Many of his best seasons came in non Finals years. Impressive assists, efficiency, rebounding. All Defensive team member later in his career.
Overrated reasons: Relatively PPG centric career finishing top 5 13 straight years and 2nd five times. 2 Finals as the man.
Analysis: Neutral to slightly underrated due to lack of championship
Dirk Nowitzki
Underrated reasons: Didn’t win the title in some of his peak seasons, elite efficiency and spacing, only finishes top 5 in PPG twice and no higher than 4th
Overrated reasons: Unspectacular combination in non-scoring areas defensively, rebounding, assists. 1 title as the man with role players is a boon to his legacy, has a second Finals.
Analysis: Slightly overrated due to his legacy leaning on 2011 title a lot
Charles Barkley
Underrated reasons: No title, peaked statistically on non contenders in Philadelphia. Incredible efficiency plus rebounding and assists gives him good statistical production outside of PPG. Finishes top 5 in PPG 3 times and no higher than 4th.
Overrated reasons: 1 Finals as the man, questionable defense.
Analysis: Underrated due to no title, his best years coming on weaker teams, and very good ratio of non-PPG to PPG production.
John Stockton
Underrated reasons: No title, no Finals as the man, outstanding ratio of non-PPG to PPG production with his assists, efficiency, defense/steals, his peak seasons came before the Finals
Overrated reasons: 2 Finals
Analysis: Rates as underrated with a bullet by this method
David Robinson
Underrated reasons: No title or Finals as the outright man, elite non PPG production in defense, rebounding, passing, efficiency.
Overrated reasons: 2 titles and Finals, somewhat PPG friendly player who finishes top 5 in scoring three times and 1st once.
Analysis: Slightly underrated due to his non-PPG stat and not getting credit as the alpha for 99.
Kevin Garnett
Underrated reasons: No title or Finals during his Minnesota prime including missing the playoffs during one of his best years (2005). Elite non-PPG production with rebounding, assists, elite defense, quality efficiency. After 04 where he finishes 3rd in PPG, never finishes above 9th.
Overrated reasons: Has a title as the best player (though not credited for it as much as others) and another Finals.
Analysis: Underrated due to not making the Finals and limited playoff series wins overall in Minnesota, elite non PPG production.
Overall: No surprise that Kobe gets hurt the most doing this exercise, and it's not so great for Dirk and Moses either. Oscar, Barkley, Garnett, Robinson look good as players with mega statistical seasons in non Finals seasons most of their prime and Oscar could get top 10 consideration. But the real winner is Stockton who hits almost every checkmark of a low PPG player who's incredible in the other areas for his position, and lacking team success points, with no title and his only 2 Finals coming after his statistical prime. It's surprising ESPN rated him all the way at 18
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