RealGM

Which trio would you rather build a new team around and why?

Its always damn near impossible to pass up the team that has #23. He and Scottie already have the chemistry, then you give him the best PF in history, and makes the first big 3 an easy choice.

SydneyDean726 wrote:Its always damn near impossible to pass up the team that has #23. He and Scottie already have the chemistry, then you give him the best PF in history, and makes the first big 3 an easy choice.

yup...pretty much.

Drexler/Bird/Kareem.

Jordan/Pippen/Duncan, quite comfortably for me.

Replace Drexler with Kobe or Wade, and I feel it would be a much better comparison.

While the overall talent is similar, I think you get more out of Jordan/Pippen/Duncan. Far better defensively, and you'd have 2 stars that would be more than willing to defer to Jordan, so there'd be no role confusion offensively.

Drexler/Bird/Kareem don't have a defensive anchor. Pippen and Duncan - that's two defensive anchors. offensively Bird's team would've been better but not that much - after all there's a certain amount of usage for every player so it's not like their offensive strength is going to combine. see: Kobe and Shaq never being elite offensive team.

bastillon wrote:Drexler/Bird/Kareem don't have a defensive anchor.

Sorry, what?

Kareem wasn't a defensive anchor? He may not be the single greatest defender in the history of the league, but he was a very good defensive presence, anchor-worthy. I'll grant you the notion that the other trio is way better defensively because they're universally All-Defensive 1st Team fixtures and contains two DPOYs (screw Camby and Artest, they robbed Duncan of DPOYs and, especially Camby, didn't deserve the ones they won), but not that the second trio doesn't have a defensive anchor.

Drexler and Bird are similar in the sense that both are willing to ramp their shooting volume up or down based on the team. Bird is the clutch scorer, Kareem is the reliable and super-efficient half-court weapon, Drexler the engaging transition finisher. I think they'd have fantastic offensive chemistry.

Pippen and Duncan < Drexler and Kareem from the standpoint of offense, but of course Jordan (especially the assumed peak Jordan we'd have, sort of 91-93 MJ), we're talking about the single greatest perimeter scorer in league history, so that difference is overcome or at least marginalized next to their noticeably superior defense.

So yeah, can't argue, Jordan's trio wins this one.

youngcrev wrote:While the overall talent is similar, I think you get more out of Jordan/Pippen/Duncan. Far better defensively, and you'd have 2 stars that would be more than willing to defer to Jordan, so there'd be no role confusion offensively.

This. And Drexler feels like an appendage on that trio.

tsherkin wrote:

bastillon wrote:Drexler/Bird/Kareem don't have a defensive anchor.

Sorry, what?

Kareem wasn't a defensive anchor? He may not be the single greatest defender in the history of the league, but he was a very good defensive presence, anchor-worthy. I'll grant you the notion that the other trio is way better defensively because they're universally All-Defensive 1st Team fixtures and contains two DPOYs (screw Camby and Artest, they robbed Duncan of DPOYs and, especially Camby, didn't deserve the ones they won), but not that the second trio doesn't have a defensive anchor.

Kareem wasn't a defensive anchor.

DavidStern wrote:In previous thread several posters said something like that about KAJ: „excellent on both ends of floor”.

It’s not true and I’m going to show why.
No doubt KAJ was great OFFENSIVE player, but he wasn’t as good on defensive end. I’m not saying he was bad defender, but he definitely wasn’t defensive anchor like others great centers.
Lest look at teams DRtg below league average to see how good defensively were teams of some great centers like KAJ, Wilt, Hakeem, Robinson, Ewing and few others.

For reference point – the best teams all time (well, since 1974, because earlier data isn’t available) have below -8.0: SAS 2004, Celtics 2008, NYK 1993 and 1994. Using estimations we know that one Russell’s team (1964) have even better result: -9.2 (!). But usually your team is very good on defense if it have -4 or lower, since 1974 (without 2011 season) only 40 different teams have -5 or lower.

So now lets see how the best KAJ’s seasons looks and his 5 and 10 year defensive peaks in comparison with others (peak in this case = 5 or 10 straight years when team defense was the best in players career).


KAJ best years in terms of team defense are his first seasons, so calculations are based on estimations (except one season).
KAJ 5 year defensive peak (1970-1974): -2.4 (good result, but not very good or great)
KAJ 10 year peak (’72-’81): -1.4
KAJ first 5 seasons in LA (1976-1980): -0.4 (barley above average)
Looking at whole career his best season were 1974 with -4.1, then 1973 with -3.8 (estimated), then 1972 with -2.8 (also estimated) and that’s all what’s worth looking on, because rest of his career = result -1.6 or higher (usually around league average), he never, except these three seasons (’72-’74), was anchoring team to better defense than -1.6.

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defensive 5 years peaks, teams average drtg relatively to league average in these 5 years, estimations pre 1974

years   drtg   player
'61-'65   -7.7   Russell
'04-'08   -7.0   Duncan
'93-'97   -6.1   Ewing
'03-'07   -5.2   B. Wallace
'85-'89   -4.6   Eaton   
'98-'02   -5.6   D. Robinson
'96-'00   -3.9   Mourning
'87-'91   -3.4   Olajuwon
'70-'74   -2.4   KAJ
'64-'68   -2.1   Wilt



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defensive 10 years peaks

years   drtg   player
'60-'69   -6.3   Russell
'99-'08   -6.1   Duncan
'92-'02   -4.2   D. Robinson
'00-'09   -3.8   B. Wallace
'88-'97   -3.1   Ewing
'84-'93   -3.1   Eaton
'87-'96   -2.6   Olajuwon
'93-'00   -2.2   Mourning (only 8 seasons because of obvious reasons)
'64-'73   -1.9   Wilt
'72-'81   -1.4   KAJ




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how many times player's team have drtg relatively to league average lower than -2 and lower than -4; also added single season career high (team drtg relatively to LA)

>-2   >-4   career high   player
13   09   -9.2 in 1964   Russell
13   11   -8.8 in 2004   Duncan
07   06   -8.3 in 1993   Ewing
08   04   -7.5 in 2004   B. Wallace
11   08   -7.2 in 1999   D. Robinson
08   04   -6.3 in 1989   Eaton
06   01   -6.1 in 1997   Mouring
06   01   -6.1 in 1964   Wilt
08   03   -4.9 in 1994   Olajuwon
03   01   -4.1 in 1973   KAJ


So KAJ looks really bad in comparison with others:
– Not many good defensive teams. Only 3 times in his career drtg -2 or lower! Second (looking from the end) on the list are Wilt and Zo with 6 such seasons each (and Mourning did it in only 8 years!).

- His defensive peak, career year, also looks bad in comparison with others, his teams result (-4.1) is the worst of all these players and Hakeem with -4.9 is closest to him, but beats him badly in terms of consistency (8 seasons with drtg -2 or lower).

- Add to that very good Bastillon’s post from here: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1056693&start=60
KAJ’s teams defense with and without him, impact wasn’t too big, in 75 and 78 when he missed games his teams defense improved without him (!) Well, maybe I will quote Bastillon, because his English is better than mine:

but I stand by what I was arguing earlier - KAJ is overrated defensively. he was able to make a positive impact, but nowhere near all-time level and he's considered some all-time defender by many on this board. when he was missing games in 75 and 78, teams sucked offensively, but actually played BETTER defense. when he was changing teams in 75 neither Bucks nor Lakers felt a dramatic change in defensive efficiency. finally, even in his rookie year, there was no major defensive impact, considering all the changes outside of him (which were clearly positive - Dandridge, more health, stability on the roster - rarely changing starting lineups).

I don't see any compelling evidence to think that KAJ was a top-10 defender and actually he might not make the top-15 either.

PS
We all know that Russell was great defensively, but looking at data above we could see that Duncan also is amazing.

Kareem was a good defender but he's not a defensive anchor.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1056693

DavidStern wrote:Lets look at top 5 best defensive teams in a career for every center with great defensive reputation:

Hakeem (first number is DRtg below league average, second – season)
-4.9 1994
-4.7 1990
-4.0 1991
-3.0 1989
-2.8 1987

Robinson (only seasons without Duncan)
-4.6 1991
-4.1 1992
-4.1 1996
-3.9 1990

Eaton
-6,3 1989
-4,9 1988
-4,6 1987
-4,5 1985
-2,8 1991

Mourning
-6,1 1997
-3,8 1996
-3,3 1999
-3,1 2000
-3 1998

Mutombo
-5,1 1999
-4,4 1997
-4,2 2002
-4 1994
-1,7 1993

Ewing
-8,3 1993
-8,1 1994
-5,7 1997
-4,5 1995
-4,1 1996

Ben Wallace
-7,5 2004
-6,9 2007
-4,9 2005
-3,7 2003
-3,1 2006

Duncan (only seasons without Robinson)
-8,8 2004
-7,3 2005
-6,6 2006
-6,6 2007
-5,7 2008

Russell (data from Oliver’s book)
-9,2 1964
-8,3 1965
-7,5 1962
-7,2 1963
-6,6 1969

Wilt (data from Oliver’s book)
-6,1 1964
-3,6 1968
-3,5 1973
-2,9 1972
-2,2 1960

And now KAJ - unfortunately we don’t have data prior 1974, so 4 KAJ’s season’s are missing. But Elgee in POY threads showed us estimated DRtgs and Bucks with Jabbar weren’t nothing special on defense)
Abdul-Jabbar
-4,1 1974
-1,8 1987
-1,6 1981
-1,4 1986
-1,4 1982

So every center anchored multiple teams with at least -3 DRtg, every expect KAJ, who anchored only one great defensive team. So or he was the most unlucky great defensive center ever or he is overrated defender. Facts suggest that the second option is true.

tsherkin wrote:

bastillon wrote:this tool is still better than "no tool". anyway since you're here maybe you can criticize team DWS as an analytic tool ? you always seemed to have been a great advocate...

and what's your opinion on the results Stern and I presented ? it's your post actually that started that thread (I replied in another topic etc) so it'd be interesting to see your point of view.

I will return to this thread later, I don't have quite the time I need to address this topic. It's a good one and a deep one, and I want to give it proper time. Can't just wing it, sadly...

you never did!

bastillon wrote:Kareem missed 17 games in 75 and 20 games in 78... that provides us some valuable data:

75:

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      total    off     def

w/o   -4.59   93.18   97.76
with  +1.46  102.62  101.15

total - pt differential with/without Kareem
offense - pts scored with/without
def - pts allowed with/without

it's not the same as DRtg so pace could've been a factor... but still. team allowed LESS (3.4) pts without KAJ... significantly less. it's amazing how they sucked without Kareem offensively though (9.5 pts worse!).

78

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      total    off     def

w/o   -1.45  105.25  106.70
with  +4.00  111.92  107.92

a very similar story. KAJ missed games, team allowing LESS pts (1.2) but playing way better offense (6.7).

now that being said, there was also 75 trade:

75 Bucks (w/ KAJ) 19.4 DWS
76 Bucks (Elmore Smith) 19.0 DWS

75 Lakers (Elmore Smith) 14.7 DWS
76 Lakers (KAJ) 19.1 DWS

again, average DWS is 20.5.

you could argue that 75 Bucks weren't the best example because KAJ didn't play the full season... but when he did, his team was actually allowing MORE pts.

there's also Kareem's rookie year:

Bucks 69 - 14.6 DWS
Bucks 70 - 20.7 DWS

a better improvement, but still not all-time impressive. it bears mention, though, that these teams were completely different: of almost 20000 mins in 69 only 12000 were played by 69 players in 70. what this means, in simplier words, is that 40% of team was different. that's quite a major turnaround. it's hard to compare them.

but I stand by what I was arguing earlier - KAJ is overrated defensively. he was able to make a positive impact, but nowhere near all-time level and he's considered some all-time defender by many on this board. when he was missing games in 75 and 78, teams sucked offensively, but actually played BETTER defense. when he was changing teams in 75 neither Bucks nor Lakers felt a dramatic change in defensive efficiency. finally, even in his rookie year, there was no major defensive impact, considering all the changes outside of him (which were clearly positive - Dandridge, more health, stability on the roster - rarely changing starting lineups).

I don't see any compelling evidence to think that KAJ was a top-10 defender and actually he might not make the top-15 either.

bastillon wrote:I'm waiting for an answer from Kareem's supporters. there's a lot of evidence in this thread against his allegedly all-time defense. T-Sherkin ? TLAF ? Penbeast ? Doc ? could someone explain the results or interpret them ?

nobody answered.

bastillon wrote:nobody answered.

i mostly remember tsherkin asking for help at apbrmetrics, which i thought was a bitch move at the time...

I'd be actually interested in their responses.

bast, I totally forgot about that thread in the flurry of other things happening. I don't remember when that was.

Kareem was a good defender. I suppose if you mean was he truly an all-time great anchor compared to someone like Dream, the answer would be no, but if you're talking about a guy who was a dominant defensive rebounder and shot-blocker... that's impact defense right there.

The thing I notice most about that DavidStern thread is that the years it uses for DRTG below league average are stupid.

It's comparing the absolute apex points of the careers of the other guys to Kareem in his mid/late 30s, which is an awful and ridiculous point of comparison. No, Kareem in L.A. after he turned 33 was not a defensive anchor, but that's not really a relevant point to discuss. How he thought that was relevant is beyond me. Notice that the one season from the 70s he includes stands with the regular seasons from basically every other one of those guys? Remember that Kareem was 33 in the 80-81 season, so those other seasons he listed, Kareem was (in order) 39, 33, 38 and 34. What kind of foolishness is it to describe the defense of a man in his late 30s against the other guys in their late 20s and very early 30s?

DS is a good poster, but that's ridiculous.

nah, you must have misread what he said. his research showed Kareem's BEST defensive seasons (I mean from team's perspective) so the only reason why old Kareem was even there was prime Kareem not anchoring good enough defenses (he didn't have results pre-74 because B-R didn't publish estimations at the time).

but that post you were talking about was from that thread from a year ago. he didn't have the dataDavidStern has made another great post since then, the first one I've quoted (from the realGM top100 - #2).

the key here is this part:

KAJ best years in terms of team defense are his first seasons, so calculations are based on estimations (except one season).
KAJ 5 year defensive peak (1970-1974): -2.4 (good result, but not very good or great)
KAJ 10 year peak (’72-’81): -1.4
KAJ first 5 seasons in LA (1976-1980): -0.4 (barley above average)
Looking at whole career his best season were 1974 with -4.1, then 1973 with -3.8 (estimated), then 1972 with -2.8 (also estimated) and that’s all what’s worth looking on, because rest of his career = result -1.6 or higher (usually around league average), he never, except these three seasons (’72-’74), was anchoring team to better defense than -1.6.

anyhow, we got to the point where it is inevitable to say Kareem doesn't stack up to great defensive centers AT ALL. not only Dream, but Mourning, D-Rob, Eaton, Ben Wallace, Ewing, Duncan and Russell all have him beat comfortably.

that's by looking at what defenses he anchored i.e. defensive results on a team level.

now what's more intriguing is the fact that he can't be excused for having a crap defensive team around him, because they actually played BETTER defense in his absence and when he was changing team hardly any significant defensive impact was visible.

details: viewtopic.php?p=25146427#p25146427

if Kareem's teams weren't that good defensively and he didn't even make them that much better, how the hell can I say he was a defensive anchor ? well, I can't and that's why I won't. Kareem was an above average defender, as evidenced by his teams slightly improving with him on the court. but he was far away from being an impact defender like the great centers or even Pippen who is mentioned in this comparison.

Pippen anchored a better defense in both 94 and 95 than prime Kareem ever did, excluding '73 season (-3.6, -4.0). not to mention Pippen was ALWAYS playing on top notch defensive teams. now compare that to Kareem whose teams were -1.4 on average between '72 and '81 (best seasons defensively).

it's kind of tough to be an elite defender when you're doing that much work on offense, but either way, you can't really use that as an excuse when other great defenders excelled at both offense and defense. Kareem was known for slow transition defense and not getting out to contest shooters on pick and rolls and rotations. meanwhile guys like Hakeem or D-Rob would even block those outside shots. hello John Starks!

but the body of evidence that we're in possession as of right now, suggests rather a moderate defensive impact from Kareem and that's why I think he's overrated in that regard as he has always been considered as all time defensive anchor. I've seen TrueLAFan defend him as being actually better than Hakeem based on boxscore stats and his teammates being poor. that's a stretch, and a big one at that.

where does Kareem rank among all time defenders ? well he's above average so I guess you could compare him to a guy like Pau Gasol when he doesn't turn into soft mode. I believe Gasol's results are actually quite similar to Kareem's on a team level.

Yeah, I noticed that later on. Gonna have to go back-read, I've had a long day, lol. This is a topic that requires considerable consideration.

Tbh that thread and the other posts I've seen on it made me seriously reconsider how I looked at KAJ defensively. I always took it as a given he was a GOAT defender, but it seems the evidence doesn't back that up.