86 Magic Assist-Tracking: What was the Ceiling of Creation in the 80s?

[OhayoKD]

On my last film-tracking adventure I looked at a high-assist game from one Larry Bird:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2405443
Bird graded out surprisingly low.

In the comments, the following hypothesis was posited:

Spoiler:

One conclusion from this is that perhaps assists in past eras were less valuable in general because of these differences. And that might actually be the case (I’d have to think more about it), but the value of a player is relative to their era, so a player who provides less playmaking in a lower-playmaking era might actually be more valuable as a playmaker than a player who provides more playmaking in a higher-playmaking era. Just some food for thought.

Was Bird’s potentially less valuable assists an era-product? To scratch at that, and because Magic has been on my bucket list for a while now, I’m going to track Magic’s assist-quality vs the same defensive comp.

For the uninitiated, here’s what was(and what will be) counted:

1. Defenders taken out (DTOs) -> this is when a player entirely or near-entirely renders a defender unable to affect an offensive play themselves(excepting a reset)

2. Additional Defenders Affected (ADAs) -> this is when a player helps render a defender unable to affect an offensive play

Will be looking for these on non-baskets and on rebounds and will be counting the two as separate things. Will also count plays where there was an opportunity to take-advantage of a player's off-ball creation but the opportunity was passed on. Will not be looking for on-ball creation though I encourage any interested party to look for the same things with the ball. I also encourage any interested party to do their own tracking/vetting.

…

I will also be qualitatively judging “creations” as either “Great”, “Good”, “Decent’, or “Weak”.

I have chosen 1 game for each player and will look at the first 40-possessions of each.

Also, in order cover what I perceived as a gap in my previous tracking, we’ll be counting something else:

Spoiler:

5. The value of compromised defenders is not linear

This is particularly pertinent with players who are creating more via volume(alot of assists) as opposed to efficiency (high DTO-per assist). There are more players can reliably take out their own man than players who can reliably take out 2 defenders and there are more players who can reliably take out 2 men than there are players who can capitalize on opportunities to take out 3 and so on. DTO is basically assuming all “defenders taken out” are created equal, inflating the assist/creation quality of players who are doing lots of replaceable things vs players doing less hard to replace things. If this tracking is representative, Bird who took out multiple defenders in only 4 of his 13 assists might be a beneficiary of this. Accordingly, I might start counting Extra Defenders Taken Out (EDTO) with future tracking.

EDTOs are defenders you take out who aren’t primarily responsible for guarding you. Please note that in a possession where a player makes multiple passes, EDTOs will not be counted for taking out a guy who is primarily guarding that player a second time. Nor will they be counted if a new defender taken out happens to be your guy.

With that out of the way, let’s break out the tape:

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Watch on YouTube

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Assist 1 - 1:30

Magic bounces the ball to Worthy, bypassing his defender, gets it back, and then fires an overhead that bypasses his man again in addition to helping create a little bit of separation for James Worthy against his. Nothing mind-blowing here though I’ll note shorter players may have some trouble with that 2nd pass. Decent

Assist 2 - 1:49

Magic finds Scott with an outlet taking out 3 defenders. Great (feels generous but that is how I graded what was basically the same play from Bird last time)

Assist 3 - 2:00

Magic takes out his own guy setting up a contested jumper. Weak

Assist 4 - 2:10

Magic drives past one defender and then baits premature jumps from 2 more, while also freezing a 4th by seemingly going up for a shot. In actuality this is all to set-up a pass to a jumping Kareem. Jabbar predictably converts. Great

Assist 5 - 2:21

Magic initiates a give and go at the elbow, cuts to the elbow, receives the ball, along with a triple team, and dumps it off to Kareem for a wide open dunk. Magic may well be the only player in the league who can pull hit splay off so it’s gonna have to be a Great from me.

Assist 6 - 3:55

Magic brings the ball up in transition and swings it to Cooper taking out 2 defenders. Cooper converts the open jumper. Decent

Assist 7 - 4:09

Magic threads the needle firing the ball past 4 defenders to find Kareem open for a dunk. Great

[b]Assist 8 - 4:20

Magic gets the ball near the basket in transition, draws 3 defenders, and dumps it to Scott for an easy layup. Not everyone is drawing 3 defenders there but that’s a pretty easy pass. Good

Assist 9 - 4:40

Magic helps get one defender out of the way with a hand-off and then throws the ball past his own man to set-up a post-mismatch for Kareem. Decent

Assist 10 - 4:53

Magic lobs it past his own man to Kareem. Kareem then does Kareem things. Weak

Assist 11 - 5:04

Magic bonuses it past his own man to Kareem. Kareem then does Kareem things. Weak

Assist 12 - 5:38

Hard to make out what’s happening given the camera angle, but Magic gets the ball at the elbow and lobs it to Kareem for a dunk. The pass itself takes out 2 defenders and a screen from one of Magic’s teammates takes out a third. Good

Assist 14 - 6:54

Magic passes past his own man to find Kareem. Kareem then does Kareem things. Weak

Assist 15 - 7:05

Magic throws it over 2 defenders to find Kareem. Kareem converts facing a defender. Decent

Assist 16 - 7:23

Magic throws it past his own man to find Kareem. Magic gets the ball back, draws a second defender and throws it past both to find Rambis wide open. He also does well to slip it past a Sampson preoccupied with Jabbar. He also also also does well to get the guy closest to Rambis walking off in the wrong direction by looking the other way. That’s 4 DTO’s, 2 EDTO’s, and 1 ADA. Needless to say, Great.

Assist 17 - 9:22

Magic floats it past 3 defenders to set-up Scott with a wide-open layup. Great

Assist 18 - ???

There’s one play which ends with a Kareem dunk but we don’t see anything but the dunk(It might be a replay?). There’s another play(9:13) where someone not named Magic scores but the announcer calls the person passing to him Worthy and I can’t tell who it is. Assuming the latter play is actually Magic(as this is a Magic highlight video) Magic takes out 2 defenders and my grade would be “decent”. If anyone can verify this is Magic or find me the 18th assist, I would be grateful. For now, I’m excluding this play.

Tally and Analysis

For Magic’s 17 tracked assists, I gave him 37 DTOs, 19 EDTOs, and a total of 3 ADAs giving Magic a total of 40 defenders affected; This also gives Magic per-assist rates of 2.2 defenders taken out, 1.1 extra defenders taken out, and 2.4 total defenders affected.

For comparison, over 13 tracked assists, the Bird-man had 16[/n] DTOs, [b]7EDTOs[/b], and 9 ADAs for a total of 25 defenders affected and per-assist rates of 1.2 defenders taken out, .54 extra defenders taken out, and 1.9 total defenders affected.

Here is a record of how other players tracked with the current process fare(excluding EDTOs):

Spoiler:

For a comparative frame, Hakeem, per-assist, had 2.3 DTOs and 2.9 defenders affected in HOU-LAC game 5 and HOU-SEA game 7(93, 12 total assists). Over 8 assists in the first game of the 2009 ECF I had Lebron with 2.4 DTOs per assist and 3 defenders affected on average. Over 8 on video Jordan assists in the 5th game of the 1991 finals, I gave Jordan, per assist, 1.5 DTOs and 1.9 total defenders affected on average.

In general Magic looks quite good here. On top of clearing everyone mentioned in quantity, by these proxies, the quality of his creation looks pretty close to the top. He lags somewhat if you strictly look at ADAs(I’d consider this a proxy for secondary or tertiary creation) but that seems a result of him just taking out defenders completely thereby rendering them ineligible to be counted as ADAs (that’s a good thing). I also have a hunch ADAs are higher for perimeter players in eras of greater spacing.

Magic looks even better in comparison to his rival, nearly doubling him in DTO and outright doubling him in EDTOs. If this is representative, I’d say the consensus of Bird being better until 87 is probably worth challenging as a substantial part of it seems to be built on the concept that Bird’s lower time of possession made his assists more valuable. An idea I have yet to see be supported meaningfully via film or data.

Additionally, with Magic and Hakeem doing well so far, I would at least be suspicious of era explaining Bird’s low marks entirely. While the sample is too small to be definitive, I think what has been tracked so far hints at an alternative explanation:

Spoiler:

1. Was there a path to frequent high-quality creation in the 80’s outside of slashing and post-play?

Touched on this earlier but illegal defense seems like a pain for anyone trying to draw multiple defenders significantly removed from the basket. While Bird’s limitations as a slasher have been covered when scrutinizing his scoring, I haven’t seen anyone (outside of this site) examine how this weakness might affect Bird’s effectiveness creating offense for others.

3 of the plays Magic takes out 3 defenders or more occur when Magic is driving or receives the ball near the basket. One of those plays has Magic taking out the defense simply with his manipulation of the ball, and then passing. Perhaps, then, an adage is in order: “He who controls the ball controls the opposing defense…especially in the 80’s”. Bird cannot slash like Magic can, cannot finish at the rim like Magic can, and cannot handle the ball like Magic can. Maybe that is why, thus far, it seems like he can’t create, like Magic can.

Of course the sample is too small to say these things with certainity. Seeing if this trend holds with players like Nash, Westbrook, Harden, and Steph may be worthwhile. I’m also interested in seeing if the tracking done with Hakeem is anomalous: Are bigs, perhaps because the threat they offer inside, free of this adage? I think Kareem (or perhaps even Hakeem again in the context of the 80’s Rockets) would be helpful studies.

I’ll end this by copy and pasting my caveats list from the last thread:

Spoiler:

1. Quantity matters too

Bird averaged 9 assists this finals so even if this sample is representative, this doesn’t stop Bird from creating more than players who generate higher quality assists but register less of them.

2. What isn’t counted

While Bird scoring poorly here aligns with some of the per-possession tracking we’ve done
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=114250252#p114250252

alot is left out when you only look at plays featuring assists:

Secondary creation, the effect a player has as a ball-handler, rebounding gravity, and creation which is not capitalized on are not captured here.

If you have multiple teammates who can do alot themselves (mchale, parish, to a degree ainge), your contributions may be more likely to end in scores. Bird’s total creation may be overrepresented by whatever he is creating in the plays he records an assist relative to players with less fortunate context:


Any sort of off-ball creation would not show up(unless it occurs alongside an assist-play) and while I’m skeptical how much is there
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=114336565#p114336565
a truly holistic appraisal would account for that as well.

3. Misses/Turnovers

A benefit of working off-ball is you have less opportunity to turn the ball over. A con is you have less opportunity to draw extra defenders thereby “missing” potential passing windows. Neither shows up if you’re just tracking assist-plays.

4. Era/Team Context

Alot of the “decents” I gave Bird make me wonder if I was being unfair with the “weaks” i gave other plays where primary difference was Bird’s teammates being found more open. The right personnel can give you more opportunities to create:

Great tracking by OhayoKD, I think it's cool and have done similar stuff myself.

Just want to point something out in general for others to keep in mind when trying to count up stuff like this:

The roster Bird has is widely regarded as one of the greatest supporting casts ever, perfect for creations because of it's versatility and having multiple methods of attack and proficient play finishers.

This play is a great demonstration of the Warriors roster. Starting at 4:40

Curry crosses half court and has 2 defenders following him, not committing to the trap but focusing on him already.
https://imgur.com/a/TBPGBTa

Then, he straight up gets tripled at the logo.
https://imgur.com/a/qcCiQoE

Curry reroutes the defense by using the Draymond screen at the edge of the court, creating a TON of spacing as he once more gets trapped.
https://imgur.com/a/zIDXBUZ

Then, the problems:
1- Kent Bazemore is not a real spacer. He shot a fine percentage but the defense does not respect him, so Ja Morant gives him a lot of space to be a more effective low man.

2- Draymond has literally 0 scoring talent at the rim or in the paint or really anywhere, and he does not trust himself to make a free throw. He knows this, so he doesn't roll hard, which is ultimately what allows JJJ to catch up.

3- Kevon Looney cannot do anything on offense. He cannot finish, post up, or capitilize on mismatches, so he's parked himself at the 3 point line and his defender is allowed to completely disrupt the play, not because of his defensive talent but because the offense is so deeply flawed.

If we replaced Draymond with a more competent roller, or replaced Looney with a stretch 5 or a normal big, or replaced Bazemore with a real spacer, suddenly this looks like Curry took 3 defenders out of a play and generated a wide open layup or 3 according to your system, but it fizzles out.


I know it doesn't affect the final conclusion since Curry won out, but even manual play tracking can underestimate players because of lacking context. This play goes from what would be a fantastic demonstration of gravity, on ball and off ball playmaking and offensive versatility to a play that "fizzles out because JJJ recovers well."

I'm pretty sure that was the description of the possession in the original post, I checked like 3 times and there was a missing possession which really confused me but it doesn't really matter.

On the other hand having teammates who do alot themselves may take away opportunities for you to be impactful. It might be worthwhile tracking Bird with weaker scoring talent around him in years like 81 and 84 to see if he “takes over” so to speak. Granted, Bird being unable to retain the same playmaking value on a better team would work against one of his most oft-cited strengths (scalability).

Illegal defense also makes doubling players significantly harder offering less opportunities for a playmaker to create without a similar drop in oppurtunity(or maybe even an increase) to make the final pass, potentially lowering assist quality.

With the Retro POY in mind, I think I may focus on 80’s Hakeem next. With Hakeem as the preeminent two-way force of the era, a two-way tracking may be in order.

[lessthanjake]

On my last film-tracking adventure I looked at a high-assist game from one Larry Bird:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2405443
Bird graded out surprisingly low.

In the comments, the following hypothesis was posited:

Spoiler:

One conclusion from this is that perhaps assists in past eras were less valuable in general because of these differences. And that might actually be the case (I’d have to think more about it), but the value of a player is relative to their era, so a player who provides less playmaking in a lower-playmaking era might actually be more valuable as a playmaker than a player who provides more playmaking in a higher-playmaking era. Just some food for thought.

Was Bird’s potentially less valuable assists an era-product? To scratch at that, and because Magic has been on my bucket list for a while now, I’m going to track Magic’s assist-quality vs the same defensive comp.

Since you quoted me here, I’ll note the following:

I would assume that virtually anyone would agree that Magic Johnson’s playmaking is superior to Larry Bird’s playmaking. Even people who think Bird was better than Magic overall (which I am not one of) would surely agree with that. Magic Johnson is very arguably the best playmaker in history and was definitely an outlier in his own era! I don’t really think what Magic was doing establishes any sort of reasonable baseline for what the era was like in general, in terms of the value of playmaking. If anything, this sort of analysis perhaps just gives us more reason to value what Magic was doing. I get that you’ve titled this as being about the “ceiling” of creation in the 1980s, and that ceiling certainly is Magic Johnson, but I think there’s good reason to think that that ceiling was just further above the rest of the pack than the ceiling in other eras. Indeed, Magic Johnson is the one top-tier all-time great who really is in that top-tier primarily on the basis of incredible playmaking (i.e. he wasn’t an absolutely elite scorer, defender, etc.), which I think is indicative of how much of an outlier his playmaking was.

If you went and did similar analysis of other great playmakers in that era that were not Magic Johnson—guys like Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Mark Jackson, Terry Porter, etc.—and found similar things to what you saw with Magic, then that would start to get more interesting IMO, as it relates to what the era was really like in general. Of course, there’s still other inherent issues with this sort of analysis (the sample sizes are tiny, the evaluations involve a healthy dose of subjectivity, etc.), and those issues are very significant IMO. But even if we accept the general usefulness of this sort of analysis, I don’t think an analysis of Magic Johnson’s playmaking can really be very informative about a baseline of the value of playmaking in that era. I suspect analysis of other playmakers from the era would end up validating the general point I made that you quoted in the OP—and I imagine you probably do too, since, for instance, I believe you’re a skeptic of the value of Stockton’s playmaking (though I might be misremembering who posted what on that, so feel free to correct me).

[OhayoKD]

On my last film-tracking adventure I looked at a high-assist game from one Larry Bird:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2405443
Bird graded out surprisingly low.

In the comments, the following hypothesis was posited:

Spoiler:

One conclusion from this is that perhaps assists in past eras were less valuable in general because of these differences. And that might actually be the case (I’d have to think more about it), but the value of a player is relative to their era, so a player who provides less playmaking in a lower-playmaking era might actually be more valuable as a playmaker than a player who provides more playmaking in a higher-playmaking era. Just some food for thought.

Was Bird’s potentially less valuable assists an era-product? To scratch at that, and because Magic has been on my bucket list for a while now, I’m going to track Magic’s assist-quality vs the same defensive comp.

Since you quoted me here, I’ll note the following:

I would assume that virtually anyone would agree that Magic Johnson’s playmaking is superior to Larry Bird’s playmaking. Even people who think Bird was better than Magic overall (which I am not one of) would surely agree with that. Magic Johnson is very arguably the best playmaker in history and was definitely an outlier in his own era! I don’t really think what Magic was doing establishes any sort of reasonable baseline for what the era was like in general, in terms of the value of playmaking. If anything, this sort of analysis perhaps just gives us more reason to value what Magic was doing. I get that you’ve titled this as being about the “ceiling” of creation in the 1980s, and that ceiling certainly is Magic Johnson, but I think there’s good reason to think that that ceiling was just further above the rest of the pack than the ceiling in other eras. Indeed, Magic Johnson is the one top-tier all-time great who really is in that top-tier primarily on the basis of incredible playmaking (i.e. he wasn’t an absolutely elite scorer, defender, etc.), which I think is indicative of how much of an outlier his playmaking was.

If you went and did similar analysis of other great playmakers in that era that were not Magic Johnson—guys like Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Mark Jackson, Terry Porter, etc.—and found similar things to what you saw with Magic, then that would start to get more interesting IMO, as it relates to what the era was really like in general. Of course, there’s still other inherent issues with this sort of analysis (the sample sizes are tiny, the evaluations involve a healthy dose of subjectivity, etc.), and those issues are very significant IMO. But even if we accept the general usefulness of this sort of analysis, I don’t think an analysis of the playmaking of Magic Johnson’s playmaking can really be very informative about a baseline of the value of playmaking in that era. I suspect analysis of other playmakers from the era would end up validating the general point I made that you quoted in the OP—and I imagine you probably do too, since, for instance, I believe you’re a skeptic of the value of Stockton’s playmaking (though I might be misremembering who posted what on that, so feel free to correct me).

FWIW, I'm planning to do Isiah tracking as he becomes more relevant during the late 80's.

I believe part of my skepticism on Stockton was rooted in what he wasn't doing as a ball-handler. Isiah, at least by reputation, is more active with the ball so I guess comparing the two could work as a test.

[penbeast0]

I think this is one of the most interesting studies I've seen here. Stockton and Isiah is probably the most interesting head to head comp I can think of with only the Magic v. Bird one you've done or Oscar v. West as similarly contentious.

[OhayoKD]

I think this is one of the most interesting studies I've seen here. Stockton and Isiah is probably the most interesting head to head comp I can think of with only the Magic v. Bird one you've done or Oscar v. West as similarly contentious.

Not as contenious I guess, but I am half-way done with paint-protection stuff with mchale, parish, bird, hakeem, and sampson. Will see if I can get it in before the 86 poy thread opens