Bird vs. Steph vs. Magic

[migya]

sure but its an important data for measuring scorers. Curry is just the much better offensive player as a whole, and although Bird has the defensive edge, its not good enough.

So you can certainly say that Curry was a more efficient scorer than Bird. Volume 3pt shooting will do that for you, and it's even more pronounced in the playoffs. But what about playmaking? What about offensive rebounding? What about occupation of different spots and sets on the floor beyond just the off-ball? Steph does a little more POA stuff with a live dribble, for sure, but Bird was also quite capable in the post. There's stylistic difference in how they approach, and obviously Bird has some postseason concerns with his scoring, but is it that clear that Steph is really a "much better offensive player as a whole?" Or are we looking at positional differences and over-crediting the little dude who handles more?

Bird scored in many more ways than Curry. His post game drew defense and created for others also. Bird was more allround and his playmaking makes him the slightly better offensive player to me. I think Bird could've scored more but was a team player that knew that was the key to winning, maximising teammates and not himself.

[theonlyclutch]

Magic easily the best. Primary ball handler and led better offenses with different casts and in different systems. Bird is last. Not as good as a shooter or off-ball player as Steph, overrated defender, biggest playoff dropper.

Bird was a bigger playoff dropper

Yet somehow just a few posts above I gave Bird and Curry’s finals stats, which favor Bird.


Here it is again:

Found this interesting. Bird and Curry have played one minute difference in finals basketball. A single minute.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/larry-bird-3-pointers-made-per-game-in-the-finals

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=steph+curry%27s+3+point+percentage+in+the+finals

Stats favor Bird too, not bad for a playoff chocker.

So what finals stat there favors Bird over Curry? Scoring 4 points less on 5% less TS? Having roughly similar turnovers per game despite far less ball handling duty and ball pressure? If you're trying to use 3P% here that's based on 1.5 vs 11.5 3PA, and Bird's 3-pointers are inconceivablely more open than any of Curry's in the finals

[SNPA]

Bird was a bigger playoff dropper

Yet somehow just a few posts above I gave Bird and Curry’s finals stats, which favor Bird.


Here it is again:

Found this interesting. Bird and Curry have played one minute difference in finals basketball. A single minute.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/larry-bird-3-pointers-made-per-game-in-the-finals

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=steph+curry%27s+3+point+percentage+in+the+finals

Stats favor Bird too, not bad for a playoff chocker.

So what finals stat there favors Bird over Curry? Scoring 4 points less on 5% less TS? Having roughly similar turnovers per game despite far less ball handling duty and ball pressure? If you're trying to use 3P% here that's based on 1.5 vs 11.5 3PA, and Bird's 3-pointers are inconceivablely more open than any of Curry's in the finals

People can look for themselves and understand eras. Overall, those stats favor Bird.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Rank these 3 players at their peaks and all-time (whether that means a career value perspective or not is up to you): Larry Bird, Steph Curry, Magic Johnson

Yes
Yes
Yes.

Curry Bird and Magic with Jamal Wilkes, Norm Nixon, Cooper Rambis, Draymond, Klay, Parrish and Maxwell would be a great team.

Curry best shooter ever.

Bird more ferocious than the junkyard dog, creative garbage scorer and a better passer than Magic who could not get good point guard assist numbers because his dribble was not good enough to be the point guard.

Magic playing the Draymond role as a half court passer for Curry but Magic was so beautiful on the fast break with Norm Nixon, Wilkes and Cooper in 1982.

If 1982 Lakers were not the most beautiful basketball then 2016 Warriors were the most beautiful.

1984 Celtics beat a better Lakers team in the finals by beating the Lakers up on the offensive boards.

I watched 1979 Bird vs Magic NCAA finals as a teenager. Then I had Bird as my home team guy from rookie year to retirement which also gave me plenty of looks at Magic. Then I moved to Golden State and suffered through some bad Warrior years before getting Curry as my home team guy from rookie year to current.

I might be the most qualified guy to rank them but I head ranking them and they are close.

Here it is:
1 Curry at least while playing with Draymond and Klay and Iguodala in the Warriors passing attack. Draymond as the main passer letting Curry play off the ball was important. Iguodala passing with Draymond to keep the ball moving was important. Klay and Curry running a marathon around Bogut and Draymond screens was important because defenses lost their defensive assignments. Harrison Barnes corner 3s to provide floor spacing was nice. The Steve Kerr, Alvin Gentry, Luke Walton offense was nice.

2 Bird
Bird busted his butt so hard as the best player on his team that all his teamates also busted their butts. Talking about the 1984 Celtics who offensive rebounded their way to a championship. Bird was a great broken play garbage scorer but the shots did not fall for Bird every night. When Bird’s shots were not falling he would you with offensive rebounds and passing. Bird was a great team defender and a great man defender of power forwards but on a team with 3 great power forwards and no great small forwards somebody had to play out of position small forward on defense. It was usually Maxwell or McHale playing out of position small forward on defense. Bird could not defend good small forwards.

Bird was a better passer than Magic but Bird was not a good dribbler so Bird could not be the point guard.

3 Magic was great but Bird was better.


So Bird Magic and Curry with my fusion player teammates who have the best qualities of their 2016 Warriors, 1984 Celtics, 1982 Lakers selves. 1984 Bird was not much of a 3 point shooter and no 1982 Laker could shoot 3s.

Fusion best teamate 1, Parish, Rambis Bogut.
Bogut for screens and passing, Rambis for high energy and fast fast break trainer speed and Parrish for short jumpers, grit, Rebounds and blocks.

Fusion best teamate 2, Wlkes for synchronicity with Magic, fast break finishes, cuts to the basket and mid range and Klay for knowing how to play marathon running off screen chaos ball with Curry

Fusion best teamate 3, Cooper, Iguodala, Maxwell
3 great defenders. Cooper was fastest and had the great coopaloops, Iguodala all around genius and passer, Maxwell great fun squirming inside scorer and great offensive rebounder when needed.

Fusion best 4, Draymond and Harrison Barnes
Harrison Barnes for corner 3s, Draymond for great defense and to take a Magic like playmaker role when Magic sits.

Teamate 5 Norm Nixon a beutiful fast point guard. Magic and Norm may not have liked sharing the ball with each other but their sharing the ball with each other is was made the 1982 Lakers arguably the most beautifully ball ever.

Alternative, fuse Magic, Draymond, Harrison Barnes and Bird into 1 super player.
Fuse Curry and Nixon into one player letting Curry use Nixon’s speed.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Not at his offensive peak. Bird is nuetralish post 85-injury and 86 and a negative in 87.

I still would classify him as a strong plus in 85/86

I disagree but we are doing a tracking project for 86 bird that includes the defensive component (you know where) You should pull up.

I think about February of 1987 may have been the peak for all 3 of Bird, McHale and Ainge but coach KC Jones had no bench and overworked his starters and then McHale broke his foot and had to play the playoffs on a broken foot.

The best Laker team was 1987 but 1987 February Celtics plus 1986 Celtics Walton, Wedman and Ssichting for a bench would have beaten the 1987 Lakers.

Bird was quicker in 1984 but about February 1987 was the best offensive version of Bird.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Yet somehow just a few posts above I gave Bird and Curry’s finals stats, which favor Bird.


Here it is again:

Found this interesting. Bird and Curry have played one minute difference in finals basketball. A single minute.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/larry-bird-3-pointers-made-per-game-in-the-finals

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=steph+curry%27s+3+point+percentage+in+the+finals

Stats favor Bird too, not bad for a playoff chocker.

So what finals stat there favors Bird over Curry? Scoring 4 points less on 5% less TS? Having roughly similar turnovers per game despite far less ball handling duty and ball pressure? If you're trying to use 3P% here that's based on 1.5 vs 11.5 3PA, and Bird's 3-pointers are inconceivablely more open than any of Curry's in the finals

People can look for themselves and understand eras. Overall, those stats favor Bird.

The 2016 system worked beautifully for Curry but Curry worked beautifully for the system that was getting Klay open shots and getting Draymond assists passing to Curry, Klay and back door cutters. The system did not work as well in 2017 with KD clogging the right side 3 point arch where Dray, Bogut Curry and Klay did elaborate screens in 2016. And Harrison Barnes kept his defender glued to the corner 3 point line in 2016.

2016 was Curry’s peak until he got injured.

Do I mark Curry down for playing in a system that was perfect for him in 2016? You could not play that system without Draymond’s passing.

About February 1987 was Bird’s peak. Bird was quicker in 1984 and hit the offensive boards harder in 1984 but 1987 was Bird’s peak as a scorer and shooter. 1987 was also McHale’s peak and maybe Ainge’s peak. Unfortunately the team had no bench and coach KC Jones overplayed his starters and McHale had to play the playoffs on a broken foot.

As a guy who had Bird and Curry as my home team guys for their whole careers for their peaks I go 1 Curry, 2 Bird, 3 Magic.

Magic was most fun to watch playing with Nixon in 1982 but I am guessing that Magic peaked in 1987 playing with Worthy.

[OhayoKD]

I still would classify him as a strong plus in 85/86

I disagree but we are doing a tracking project for 86 bird that includes the defensive component (you know where) You should pull up.

I'd be very interested to see the results of that.

Tracking has gone much slower than excepted(largely due to my own laziness, other parties more than held up their side things), but here were the early returns:

For those who are curious, a half into the final round of 86, Bird is having a fantastic scoring game(16 points with 7 possessions, 1 technical)
Image

He is offering creative value but it's limited(2 Great OC, 12:40, 28:50)but he seems limited here(and thus far not much of anything seems to be happening off-ball):
Image

His defense(1 Decent DP, 46:30, 5 Minor Breakdowns, 53:20, 41:55, 26:55, 26:40, 12:30, 2 Moderate Breakdowns, 20:10, 20:35) isn't great
Image
Image

Here's the game for those who want to vet/comment

Second half tracking was pretty similar in terms of non-scoring but has not yet been vetted(my bad!) and of course I was supposed to do Hakeem but have given up about three separate times due to the difficulty of identifying who is who on the court.

My general impression from a much more casual watch of bird's playoff games is his defense turns nuetral post 85 injury and is negative by 87. That said, since I have a nice chunk of free-time right now(escape room plan was nixed), i'm going to do some off-ball specific tracking with two final games chosen for similar situation and result(high-assist-game in a double-digit closeout win vs an overmatched team). Could not find any full-game final game for Steph on youtube, so going to go with the first full-game I could find...



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Watch on YouTube

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(game 6, 1986)

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Watch on YouTube

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(game 6 2015) Play-in 2021

Two things will be counted.

1. Defenders taken out (DTOs) -> this is when a player entirely or near-entirely renders a defender unable to affect an offensive play themselves(excepting a reset)

2. Additional Defenders Affected (ADAs) -> this is when a player helps render a defender unable to affect an offensive play

Will be looking for these on non-baskets and on rebounds and will be counting the two as separate things. Will also count plays where there was an opportunity to take-advantage of a player's off-ball creation but the opportunity was passed on. Will not be looking for on-ball creation though I encourage any interested party to look for the same things with the ball. I also encourage any interested party to do their own tracking/vetting.

We'll start with Bird:

Possession 1
Mchale drive and miss.

Possession 2
Bird swaps defenders with a teammate to create a matchup advantage.

Possession 3
Bird steals and makes an outlet pass to Johnson who makes a pass to Mchale who scores shooting against two defenders.

Possession 4
Bird receives ball in post. Scores jumper over 1 defender.

Possession 5
Bird makes a basic read to Parish who wins free-throws with an upfake.

Possession 6
Dennis drives and scores following a basic read from Mchale.

Possession 7
Ainge makes a good read to Mchale who is blocked by Mcray.

Possession 8
Bird makes a good read to find Ainge open on the inbound. Ainge misses. Bird wins the rebound vs two defenders and converts for his second meaningful contribution.

Possession 9
Bird passes to Johnson from behind the basket who nearly takes out all 5 Houston defenders with an attempted outlet; the ball is batted away for Celtics ball.

Possession 10
Mchale receives inbound and tries to bang it in past multiple defenders and misses. Bird gets back early to play defense and is ignored by all 5 defenders,

Possession 11
Ainge picks up loose ball and scores

Possession 12
Bird makes a simple read to Johnson who takes out 2 defenders with a good read to Parish who then converts.

Possession 13
Bird knocks it to Johnson who draws free-throws of a 1 v 2 fastbreak.

Possession 14
Bird backscreens a rocket defender creating a delay which is not capitalised on(Bird cuts to recieve and fire a pass to Parish but the ball comes too late and Parish ends up shooting over a double and Celtics fail to secure an offensive board. Still this is Bird's first ADA. It is not a DTO as Bird still needs a teammate to make a read in order to take out the additional defender(that pass not coming quick enough is why little came out of it).

Possession 15
Bird makes a good read to Parish who converts passing over one defender and also briefly distracting #33 thereby ensuring the recipient to a pass he makes converts.

Possession 16
Bird steals and passes it to Ainge who finishes off the play.

Possession 17
Mchale picks up a loose ball and misfires. Rockets ball.

Possession 18
Bird picks up his second off-ball ADA catching a Rocket with a backscreen. Bird then cuts to receive a pass and makes a decent read to Mchale who exploits his defender cheating a bit(good placement by Bird) to turnaround and score.

Possession 19
Bird beats the attacker to catch Hakeem's airball and then takes out 2 defenders with a good read(and some manipulation) but Reid pokes the ball away.

Possession 20
Bird screens a couple defenders but the first play is resolved with a simple switch and he doesn't get enough physical impact to create anything on the second.

Possession 21
Bird exploits none of the Rockets paying him mind to cut back, get open, and complete a simple read for a Dennis Johnson brick.

Possession 22
Bird records his third off-ball ADA pulling a defender into his teammate thereby distracting second defender allowing Ainge to squeak by him with the ball on the baseline. Play ends a with Johnson airball.

Possession 23
Johnson brings it up and Hakeem intercepts his pass for a dunk.

Possession 24
Bird makes his own defender chase him without the but the Rocket's defenders successfully avoid each other and nothing comes off it besides maybe his own teammate getting confused. Hakeem steal

Possession 25
Bird makes his defender chase him again but is caught up to and sees his own pass attempt intercepted by Olajuwon.

Possession 26
Bird runs to get open and fires a decent pass to Mchale who bangs and upfakes to score on two defenders.

Possession 27
Bird works off-ball to receive a pass and draws a foul after getting past his defender. Inbound pass to Mchale who fires a jumper over a defender to extend the lead.

Possession 28
Bird gets open under the basket and converts.

Possession 29
Bird forces a jump-ball, wins a tip-off vs Hakeem, and hits the ball to Mchale. Bird then receives the ball at the edge of the paint, upfakes to get open, and wins free-throws on a shot-attempt.

Possession 30
Ainge finds Mchale on an inbound pass and Mchale misses a buzzer-beating jumper.

Possession 31
Johnson steals and brings it up. Bird gets the ball at the elbow and makes a simple pass to a teammate at the key. Tries to get in position for a rebound but is cut off. Dennis Johnson misses and Hakeem secures a contested rebound.

Possession 32
Bird waits in the corner before floating in with his defender, preventing him from interfering with the battle of the boards. Walton scores.

Possession 33
Bird tries to get separation using other defenders(does that alot) but is caught up to and bricks a jumper.

Possession 34
Bird with a decent outlet to Ainge who gives it to Mchale who tries to dunk over multiple defenders and fails.

Possession 35
Bird receives the ball in the mid-post and takes out 2 defenders with a good read to Dennis Johnson who wins free-throws on a potential layup.

Possession 36
Bird gets the ball. Mchale draws a foul while screening.

Possession 37
Bird makes a good entry pass to Mchale out of the inbound. Mchale converts.

Possession 38
Bird with a decent entry pass to Parish who misses. Mchale secures a rebound but misses.

Possession 39
Parish sets a screen. Bird capitalizes by driving and winning free-throws.

Possession 40
Ainge gets the ball to Bird in the backcourt for a 3 v 1. Bird passes it to Johnson who passes it back to Bird for a layup.

Final Tally: Bird

Over the course of the first 40 possessions, Bird gets 3 ADA's off-the-ball. (for those who want to vet I stopped tracking at 44:42). Notably, Bird's shooting and rebounding isn't really affecting anyone besides his own defender. When Bird doesn't have the ball, he is ignored by everyone who isn't his man. In fact, Bird takes advantage of this lack of concern(even from his own man) to get open and receive the ball several times...and the Rockets defense is rarely ever punished for it.

The damage Bird does offensively is done nearly exclusively on-the-ball and to the extent he is creating with his movement, he's mostly creating for himself.


But this is a comparison. And for a comparison to compare, we need a second party. Enter Steph.

Possession 1
Curry brings the ball up and gives it to Green. Wiggins drives, draws 3, and kicks-out to Bazemore who converts the wide-open look.

Possession 2
Curry brings the ball up, hands it off to Poole and tries to draw Brooks into Ja. Ja avoids the collision and stays on his man. Wiggins gets the ball and then shakes his defender to score.

Possession 3
Steph intercepts Ja's pass and launches a deep 3 which misses.

Possession 4
Green brings it up and gives it to Poole. At 2:04, not one, not two, but three additional defenders look at Steph anticipating him receiving a bounce pass. I will only count the one who physically moved towards Steph as an ADA giving Steph 1.

Possession 5
Steph hands the ball off and cuts back to receive the ball (Poole assists with a weak screen), and then takes out 2 defenders and helps a screener delay a third setting up Bazmore with a semi-contested 3 he bricks.

Possession 6
Steph occupies Brooks on the elbow. Wiggins turns it over.

Possession 7
Steph brings up the ball and takes advantage of two screens to get Jaren Jackson Jr. out of position. JJJ recovers well and the play fizzles out.

Possession 8
Steph brings it up, hands it off and uses a screen to get separation from Brooks. Unfortunately Steph steps out of bounds when he receives the pass. Memphis ball.

Possession 9
Steph brings up the ball and drives into traffic. The ball is deflected out of bounds(not actually but that's the ref's ruling).

Possession 10
Steph gets his 2nd off-ball ADA with Jaren Jackson Jr. moving in anticipation of Curry receiving the ball. While the final play had Curry taking out 2 defenders with the ball, had Poole not decided to pass to Steph(because of what he offers on-the-ball) and went another route, Curry's off-ball movement allowed him to do so without JJJ impeding him. Worth noting Wiggins Screen creates space for Steph, not other Warriors. Had Wiggins not set the screen, JJJ is probably even more compromised by Steph's movement thereby increasing the value of Steph's off-ball play(while also making it harder for Steph to make a more valuable on-ball player). With that in mind there's an argument for this being a DTO. Bazemore drives and draws a foul.

Possession 11
Steph knifes through Memphis' defense for a layup with an aid from a Bazemore screen.

Possession 12
Curry occupies Brooks. Wiggins draws two defenders and finds Draymond who converts the open jumper.

Possession 13
Draymond brings it up and dishes it to Bazemore who drives for a layup and misses.

Possession 14
Steph brings the ball up and draws a foul on Brooks with fancy dribbling. Anderson shoots and misses but we don't see what led to that.

Possession 15
Draymond brings the ball up, Steph touches JJJ and draws Brooks into a Dray screen before cutting for separation. Receives a quick pass from Draymond and bricks the 3. Anderson rebounds and converts.

Possession 16
Steph brings the ball up, gets seperation on a soft Draymond screen and gives it to Anderson whose pass is short. The ball is batted out of bounds by Ja and Anderson inbounds it to Draymond. Steph sets a back-screen on Draymond's man giving Dryamond time to find him at the key. Steph drives into traffic for a layup but misses.

Possession 17
Draymond brings it up, dribbles into traffic, and turns the ball over.

Possession 18
Steph pulls Brooks towards another defender leading to said defender momentarily losing Draymond. Steph then runs Brooks into Anderson getting himself free for a Draymond pass after which he takes out 2 defenders and pulls a third with a bounce pass for Draymond. He then rolls to the basket distracting Ja for his 3rd off-ball ADA. Draymond capitalizes finding Bazemore for an open 3. Swish

Possession 19
Curry gets the ball in the backcourt and tries to draw a foul on Brooks with a wayward shot-attempt. Fails

Possession 20
Curry gets the fourth ADA distracting Ja in the paint and then intercepting him with a screen to give Bazemore a shooting window. Curry then records his first off-ball DTO with 2 defenders moving and a third distracted because of the threat of Steph recieving the ball in space. Had Draymond decided to pass to Bazemore, he would be open thanks to Steph drawing 2 defenders off-ball. Instead he finds Steph who hits a middy after making Brooks crash into Jackson Jr. This is far and away the most valuable off-ball possession tracked so far.

Possession 21
Steph brings the ball up, draws 2 defenders, uses an Anderson screen to cut one out of the play and scores over the other from deep.

Possession 22
Curry gets the ball in transition and converts from deep.

Possession 23
Draymond brings it up and throws it to Poole. Poole converts a contested 3.

Possession 24
Steph drives into traffic and loses the ball.

Possession 25
Steph brings the ball up and draws free-throws with some foul-baiting.

(steph is subbed out, is back at 32:47)

Possession 26
Steph runs around the baseline to get the ball and then dribbles past 2 defenders before taking an additional 2 out with a pass to set-up an open dunk. Nothing really made off-ball but this is the most either Bird or Steph have created in a possession in this tracking.

Possession 27
Steph gets 2 ADAs as two extra Memphis defenders move towards Steph in anticipation of him potentially receiving a bounce pass from Anderson. Anderson could have exploited this by passing to a teammate but instead pings the ball off a Memphis defender looking for a home run.

Possession 28
Curry brings the ball up and gives it to Draymond. Two additional defenders look at Curry in anticipation of him receiving the ball (34:25) but as neither move towards him until after the ball leaves Draymond's hand, I will not count either as an ADA. After receiving the ball Steph does a behind the back to find a teammate and then draws an extra defender cutting to the basket. This will be counted an ADA giving Steph 7. As this happens the ball returns to Draymond. Instead of giving it to an open Andersen, Draymond tries to find Steph. Turnover.

Possession 29
Draymond intercepts a pass and runs the break before passing the ball to Moulder who pings it to Andersen for an open three. Miss.

Possession 30
Steph brings the ball up and turns it over with an ill-advised bounce pass.

Possession 31
Draymond brings the ball up and Steph helps him get a little separation by bumping Tilman. As Draymond drives to the basket, Steph also distracts Valanciunas ensuring help comes too late to prevent Draymond from scoring on Xavier. That's [b[ADA 8[/b].

Possession 32
Steph brings the ball up and uses the space generated by a Moulder screen to fire the ball to Bazemore who tries to drive to the basket but is blocked on his shot-attempt.

Possession 33
Curry gets his 9th off-ball ADA pulling a defender from the corner as he backcuts to the basket. He ultimately receives the ball and misses an ill-advised layup.

Possession 34
Pool brings the ball up and passes it to Draymond. Curry screens Wiggins defender and then cuts to the corner. Wiggins slides it to Steph who converts.

Possession 35
Draymond brings the ball up and plays it to Poole. It cycles back to Draymond. Poole bumps a defender, gets the ball, and drives and makes a contested jumper.

Possession 36
Curry gets the ball from Draymond in the backcourt and then drives into traffic(again), gets blocked, and misses the rebound.

Possession 37
Wiggins brings up the ball and fakes a shot-attempt before passing it to Green who swings it to Steph. Steph draws a foul. Inbound leads to a jumpball.

Possession 38
Curry hands it to Wiggins and then goes around the bassline to receive the ball from a Bazemore hand-off. Bazemore screens giving Steph the space to fire a shot. He misses. Warriors lose the rebound battle.

Possession 39
Wiggins takes advantage of a Bazemore screen to drive and score.

Possession 40
Draymond secures the board and gives it to Steph who drives, draws 2 defenders, and dishes it to Bazemore for an open 3. Misses.


Final Tally: Curry

Over the course of the first 40 possessions, Curry gets 9 ADA's and a DTO off-the-ball. (for those who want to vet I stopped tracking at 44:36). Even past his prime having lost some of that off-ball quickness and lacking comparable on-ball support, Curry was flatly far more influential without the ball with small movements immediately drawing attention from extra defenders. I would say this is a product of

A. Steph being a much much much better shooter
B. Steph being much quicker than Bird, necessitating an earlier start
C. Illegal defense making hedging much harder

Pair that with Steph simply being more active without the ball and the result is a chasm in value generated, even with Steph also being far more involved offensively on-ball. I did not track on-ball creation, but I imagine if someone did they would find Steph beating Bird in both on-ball ADAs and DTOs. As is Steph likely had the only play I'd classify as "great" creation from either taking out 4 defenders(2 via-ball handling) to set-up an open layup.

Iow:

He was far and away the best player on one of the three greatest teams in NBA history. Averaged 26/10/7 on 50/40/90 splits. INSANELY portable and crazy effective off-ball, but he could just as easily take over a game if necessary.

Magic easily the best. Primary ball handler and led better offenses with different casts and in different systems. Bird is last. Not as good as a shooter or off-ball player as Steph, overrated defender, biggest playoff dropper.

Off ball? Bird not only has gravity as a shooter he is a GOAT level passer, he sets screens and he rebounds. He is clearly the best off ball player of the bunch. Not to knock Steph’s brilliance as a three point shooter and gravity but all around he isn’t on Bird’s level off ball.

Yeah, no.

The idea of Bird as a highly valuable off-ball piece is an anachronistic concept conjured by looking at Bird's status as a shooter/off-ball player in-era and ignoring what it actually took to achieve that status in his time, or how defenses reacted to said status:

Not sure I agree with that, given Bird's touch passing and his own defensive draw as a shooter. Certainly not at the same range as Steph, but it's a little bit odd to treat Steph as if he's the only guy who drew a lot of coverage away from the ball and used his movement to leverage that for team offense.

Bird's defensive draw as a shooter was pretty much limited to his own defender. At any range where such draw would offer meaningful spacing, extra defenders were not moving towards him, cheating towards him, or even looking at him. Even with his own defender, his draw was much weaker. While Dillon Brooks is outright glued to Steph, if Bird was too removed form the play, his man would simply ignore him, and even when ignoring him he was not as closely attached. Functionally if Steph hung far away from the play, Brooks would also stay far away preventing any potential help. Can't say the same for Bird.

His cutting was a tool to gain separation from his own defender, but outside of when he managed to run into someone or run his defender into someone, he didn't do much to create separation for his teammates.

They are just not in the same stratosphere without the ball. I think players like Lebron and KG would be much more sensible comps, but even that might be generous considering the former is a much better roller and (at least 2013 onwards) spacer, the latter sets far more screens(really the bulk of bird's off-ball impact is colliding with other players), and both require significantly more defensive resources to reliably prevent offensive boards.

Simply put, Bird the great off-ball engine looks more like myth than reality to me.

[tsherkin]

My general impression from a much more casual watch of bird's playoff games is his defense turns nuetral post 85 injury and is negative by 87. That said, since I have a nice chunk of free-time right now(escape room plan was nixed), i'm going to do some off-ball specific tracking with two final games chosen for similar situation and result(high-assist-game in a double-digit closeout win vs an overmatched team). Could not find any full-game final game for Steph on youtube, so going to go with the first full-game I could find...

Thanks for following up!

Bird's defensive draw as a shooter was pretty much limited to his own defender.

In how many games and against how many teams have you confirmed that? Have you accounted for team defensive value? The Rockets were a 14th-ranked defense in 1986, albeit 2nd in the playoffs, and outside of Hakeem, not lauded over much for individual defensive efficacy. So one game goes only so far as describing such.

You're also comparing two games which are 40 years of strategy apart. Your own tracking suggests that Bird was looking to cut, so it's possible it was simply him improvising in the moment instead of having it be a major part of how the offense was constructed.

Simply put, Bird the great off-ball engine looks more like myth than reality to me.

So it's a start, anyway. As I said, there are still some issues with drawing the conclusion from the sample given and some factors for which must one account going forward. Interesting stuff, though!

[SNPA]

My general impression from a much more casual watch of bird's playoff games is his defense turns nuetral post 85 injury and is negative by 87. That said, since I have a nice chunk of free-time right now(escape room plan was nixed), i'm going to do some off-ball specific tracking with two final games chosen for similar situation and result(high-assist-game in a double-digit closeout win vs an overmatched team). Could not find any full-game final game for Steph on youtube, so going to go with the first full-game I could find...

Thanks for following up!

Bird's defensive draw as a shooter was pretty much limited to his own defender.

In how many games and against how many teams have you confirmed that? Have you accounted for team defensive value? The Rockets were a 14th-ranked defense in 1986, albeit 2nd in the playoffs, and outside of Hakeem, not lauded over much for individual defensive efficacy. So one game goes only so far as describing such.

You're also comparing two games which are 40 years of strategy apart. Your own tracking suggests that Bird was looking to cut, so it's possible it was simply him improvising in the moment instead of having it be a major part of how the offense was constructed.

Simply put, Bird the great off-ball engine looks more like myth than reality to me.

So it's a start, anyway. As I said, there are still some issues with drawing the conclusion from the sample given and some factors for which must one account going forward. Interesting stuff, though!

The analysis seems to be, in the pace and space era where he shoots over 10 3pters per game, Curry has defenses focused on his off ball movements as he tries to get open for a shoot. Ok. I think we all knew that. Now, let’s put Bird in the pace and space era shooting 10+ 3pters per game doing the same thing, teams leave him alone? No, obviously not.

I’ll also restate, there is more to playing off ball than shooting and shooting gravity. Lots more. Bird is better at basically all of it.

[tsherkin]

The analysis seems to be, in the pace and space era where he shoots over 10 3pters per game, Curry has defenses focused on his off ball movements as he tries to get open for a shoot. Ok. I think we all knew that. Now, let’s put Bird in the pace and space era shooting 10+ 3pters per game doing the same thing, teams leave him alone? No, obviously not.

I’ll also restate, there is more to playing off ball than shooting and shooting gravity. Lots more. Bird is better at basically all of it.

Certainly, Curry is very good at leveraging the threat of his shot via his off-ball movement. And Kerr's system further accents this.

And I agree, I think that forward in time where shooting 3s has become more commonplace, it's likely that teams pay more attention to a 40% 3pt shooter (something Bird managed 6 times in his career).

But I'm curious to see more detail here. My first impulse is indeed that teams weren't defending the 3 with the same vigor then as now because it was so new and so relatively unused. Even Bird never posted more than 3.3 3PA/g on a season. So they didn't really have a lot of time to adjust to the idea that they needed to defend in that way. Indeed, in 86 when that game was played, it was Bird's 4th season of 1+ 3PA/g... but only his first of 2+. It wasn't a really big deal for him to be behind the arc because it typically didn't account for a significant volume of shots. In 86, he had 32 games of > 2 3PA. And 7 of them with more than 4. So it's not like he was merrily bombing away there, nor that teams much realized they needed to be attacking him out there. They were very much more concerned with the post, shots around the rim, and how often he attacked at the elbow or along the baseline.

So it's an interesting space. And yeah, 40 possessions against 1 team whose D was largely defined by Hakeem Olajuwon means only so much, no matter how well they did on D in that particular postseason. Still, it's worth exploring.

I agree he likely would have shot many more 3s per game in today's environment, with an attendant difference in defensive attention. I still would like to see Bird compared to more in-era guys in terms of off-ball effect, though, since the comparison to Curry is like 30 years apart and in two very different offensive environments.

[lessthanjake]

I’m pretty skeptical of the utility of this sort of analysis, even though I actually agree that Steph > Bird.

There’s a few problems here:

1. The sample size being analyzed is *extremely* low. We really can’t draw any conclusion about any player from what happens in half a game. Heck, I don’t even think we could draw much of any conclusion from looking at several entire games. But certainly the sample here renders analysis of it pretty meaningless.

2. The analysis is very subjective. “Defenders Taken Out” and “Additional Defenders Affected” are not objective things. They are very subjective judgment calls based on vague criteria. And that becomes a particular issue when/if the person or people doing that analysis are specifically doing it to try to back up arguments that they have made and are continuing to make. When people want the results of subjective analysis to come out a certain way, they’re highly likely to see it that way when they do the analysis. I think that’s clearly a factor at play here, but even leaving that aside we are still talking about vague and highly subjective criteria being tallied. It’s quite likely that there’d be disagreement between people if others chose to spend the large amount of time to recreate the analysis themselves.

3. It seems fairly obvious to me that this sort of thing can’t really be validly compared across eras. There’s a lot of reasons why defenders would be “taken out of the play” less in the 1980s than in more recent eras. For one thing, it is obviously harder to “take a defender out of the play” in an era with way worse spacing, because defenders have less far to go to recover back to their man (or they recover the same distance, but to someone who likely isn’t dangerous from long range, so recovering effectively is way easier and the defender is never really “out of the play”). Furthermore, illegal defense rules at the time limited the kind of soft doubling that could be done, which made defenses a lot less likely to give up stuff where a defender is “taken out of the play.” Their options were much closer to just being either guard someone straight up or hard double them. Obviously, the hard double is an option, but when you largely take away the softer options, you end up with much more pure one-on-one man defense and therefore fewer instances of players taking someone other than their own defender “out of the play.” This is compounded even more when we are talking about off-ball doubling, which was basically not allowed. In other words, this is just trying to measure something that systematically happens more now due to rule changes. The rules back then made the game much more focused on just beating your defender. (Of course, all this stuff actually makes things easier for the offensive player back then, even if they’re less likely to “take defenders out of the play,” but that was counterbalanced by hand checking, worse spacing, etc.).

In other words, this analysis is tiny-sample analysis, using vague and subjective criteria, to measure something that cannot and should not be directly compared across the eras being discussed.

[OhayoKD]

My general impression from a much more casual watch of bird's playoff games is his defense turns nuetral post 85 injury and is negative by 87. That said, since I have a nice chunk of free-time right now(escape room plan was nixed), i'm going to do some off-ball specific tracking with two final games chosen for similar situation and result(high-assist-game in a double-digit closeout win vs an overmatched team). Could not find any full-game final game for Steph on youtube, so going to go with the first full-game I could find...

Thanks for following up!

Bird's defensive draw as a shooter was pretty much limited to his own defender.

In how many games and against how many teams have you confirmed that? Have you accounted for team defensive value? The Rockets were a 14th-ranked defense in 1986, albeit 2nd in the playoffs, and outside of Hakeem, not lauded over much for individual defensive efficacy. So one game goes only so far as describing such.

As far as direct off-ball tracking goes

-> 1986 finals game 1 (first half vetted)
-> 1987 ECF game 5 (vetted)
-> 1987 ECF game 1 (vetted)
-> First 40 percent of this game (not yet vetted)

This is the first time I/we have exclusively looked for off-ball creation though. The other games off-ball whatever was tracked along with on-ball creation. That said, for the other games pretty much all parties tracking/vetting agreed there was little to no off-ball creation for Bird(the first half of the 1986 game and the steal game actually had three different sets of eyes).

Sample-size is small and I'm not going to pretend hearsay of games not hard-tracked from me and other parties is anything definitive, but as you say, you have to start somewhere and I have yet to see anyone claiming Bird as a high-volume off-ball creator actually show a high frequency(or even bother to track the frequency at all) with tape. What I have seen are isolated plays posted.

This is also true with the other party play up as an off-ball buzzsaw. For Jordan pretty similar story in tracked-games
(1991 vs Pistons game 4, 1991 vs Pistons game 2, 1989 vs Pistons game 6, 1991 vs Sixers game 1, 1990 vs Pistons game 1 and 3) though none of those had specific off-ball creation tracking.

And again, like Bird, I have yet to see anyone making claims about Jordan as a volume-off ball creator post-tracking(or even a claim) of the frequency he was creating off-ball.

Same is true for Reggie but neither me or anyone i've vetted or tracked with has ever tracked his stuff.

You're also comparing two games which are 40 years of strategy apart. Your own tracking suggests that Bird was looking to cut, so it's possible it was simply him improvising in the moment instead of having it be a major part of how the offense was constructed.

This is fair to point out in an argument regarding potential translation but the scope of this conversation was era-relative I think. My claim is not "Bird was outpaced in terms of off-ball impact by his peers", it was "Bird's off-ball impact is not similar to Steph's" with a gesture towards this being true of the various hyped off-ball creators of that time period.

Final note I'll make. At least for that run, the Rockets defense(and overall to a degree) was historically impressive including vs both the Celtics and the Lakers:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107880378#p107880378

Spoiler:

It seems strange to say basically outside of a conference finals, they were about the same when that conference finals had a player in Hakeem be the best player on the court while playing essentially a +8 SRS juggernaut and his play primarily leading to a defeating win against a great team. Also note that Hakeem only played 68 games that year—Bulls with 82 games and 39 minutes of Jordan were marginally better than a Rockets team with only 68 games of Hakeem.

Here’s what the ‘85—‘87 Lakers did in the playoffs:

1985 Lakers vs.Suns: +18.7 NRtg, 124.6 ORtg
1985 Lakers vs. Blazers: +10.2 NRtg, 117.9 ORtg
1985 Lakers vs. Nuggets: 10.8 NRtg, 117.4 ORtg
1985 Lakers vs. Celtics: +2.5 NRtg, 112.3 ORtg

1986 Lakers vs. Spurs: +31.4 NRtg, 122.7 ORtg
1986 Lakers vs. Mavs: +5.1 NRtg, 119.7 ORtg
1986 Lakers vs. Rockets: -3.6 NRtg, 107.4 ORtg

1987 Lakers vs. Nuggets: +25.2 NRtg, 125.1 ORtg
1987 Lakers vs. Warriors: +10.5 NRtg, 121.7 ORtg
1987 Lakers vs. Sonics: +11.4 NRtg, 117.2 ORtg
1987 Lakers vs. Celtics: +4.3 NRtg, 118.4 ORtg

NOBODY could stop that Lakers offense—the 1985 Celtics slowed them a little, but the Rockets did something pretty extraordinary in 1986 that really doesn’t get celebrated enough. 1990 Jordan was of course amazing, and played great in the playoffs (though the 1990 Pistons aren’t in the same tier as this Lakers team—1990 pistons had some of the best health ever and were still a tier below that Lakers’ juggernaut), but 82 games, 39 mpg of a player basically at his peak producing that SRS (and then playinand seems to be swept away while what 1986 Hakeem did doesn’t seem to get the fanfare it should.

It wasn't replicated the next year, but there is no shortage of off and on-court explanations for that.

Simply put, Bird the great off-ball engine looks more like myth than reality to me.

So it's a start, anyway. As I said, there are still some issues with drawing the conclusion from the sample given and some factors for which must one account going forward. Interesting stuff, though!

Sure. Hopefully we can increase the sample for this sort of tracking. Thanks for reading!

[tsherkin]

Sample-size is small and I'm not going to pretend hearsay of games not hard-tracked from me and other parties is anything definitive, but as you say, you have to start somewhere and I have yet to see anyone claiming Bird as a high-volume off-ball creator actually show a high frequency(or even bother to track the frequency at all) with tape. What I have seen are isolated plays posted.

It's good to look, and to put data to the notion. Of course, it'll require era-based contextualizing and other players from the same period for point of comparison, but it's an intriguing start.

This is fair to point out in an argument regarding potential translation but the scope of this conversation was era-relative I think. My claim is not "Bird was outpaced in terms of off-ball impact by his peers", it was "Bird's off-ball impact is not similar to Steph's" with a gesture towards this being true of the various hyped off-ball creators of that time period.

Sure, but there's a sufficient distance in style of play across the intervening decades that I don't know if it's the best set up to make a clear point, you know?

Final note I'll make. At least for that run, the Rockets defense(and overall to a degree) was historically impressive including vs both the Celtics and the Lakers:

Well, as I noted, they 14th in the RS and 2nd in the PS. They turned it up to a huge degree.

Sure. Hopefully we can increase the sample for this sort of tracking. Thanks for reading!

Thanks for putting in the work. I'm looking forward to seeing more, it's good stuff. Even if I poke at the setup and the minutiae, I appreciate the effort going into it and the conversation coming out of it

[Throwawaytheone]

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[rk2023]

Magic/Curry
Bird (I have Bird a tier below those two on my pantheon)

[SNPA]

Great tracking by OhayoKD, I think it's cool and have done similar stuff myself.

Just want to point something out in general for others to keep in mind when trying to count up stuff like this:

The roster Bird has is widely regarded as one of the greatest supporting casts ever, perfect for creations because of it's versatility and having multiple methods of attack and proficient play finishers.

This play is a great demonstration of the Warriors roster. Starting at 4:40

Curry crosses half court and has 2 defenders following him, not committing to the trap but focusing on him already.
https://imgur.com/a/TBPGBTa

Then, he straight up gets tripled at the logo.
https://imgur.com/a/qcCiQoE

Curry reroutes the defense by using the Draymond screen at the edge of the court, creating a TON of spacing as he once more gets trapped.
https://imgur.com/a/zIDXBUZ

Then, the problems:
1- Kent Bazemore is not a real spacer. He shot a fine percentage but the defense does not respect him, so Ja Morant gives him a lot of space to be a more effective low man.

2- Draymond has literally 0 scoring talent at the rim or in the paint or really anywhere, and he does not trust himself to make a free throw. He knows this, so he doesn't roll hard, which is ultimately what allows JJJ to catch up.

3- Kevon Looney cannot do anything on offense. He cannot finish, post up, or capitilize on mismatches, so he's parked himself at the 3 point line and his defender is allowed to completely disrupt the play, not because of his defensive talent but because the offense is so deeply flawed.

If we replaced Draymond with a more competent roller, or replaced Looney with a stretch 5 or a normal big, or replaced Bazemore with a real spacer, suddenly this looks like Curry took 3 defenders out of a play and generated a wide open layup or 3 according to your system, but it fizzles out.


I know it doesn't affect the final conclusion since Curry won out, but even manual play tracking can underestimate players because of lacking context. This play goes from what would be a fantastic demonstration of gravity, on ball and off ball playmaking and offensive versatility to a play that "fizzles out because JJJ recovers well."

Spoiler:

I'm pretty sure that was the description of the possession in the original post, I checked like 3 times and there was a missing possession which really confused me but it doesn't really matter.

Bird with the greatest supporting cast is a weak argument IMO. In his own era Magic clearly had a better supporting cast (and weaker conference). In Curry’s era, KD is clearly the best number two. Klay/Draymond is close to McHale/Parrish too (considering eras).

Bird came in and his rookie year produced insane results. This is after dragging a talent deficient team to play against Magic in the final four. Bird elevates teams to an unbelievable degree. It’s not about his cast…it’s about him.

[Throwawaytheone]

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