89 Jordan Assist-Tracking: A Peek at Point-MJ

[OhayoKD]

Last-time on Assist-Watchers, we watched the assists of one Magic Johnson.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2411062

Now we’ll look at another MJ. The one who plays shooting guard. But with a twist. He’s playing PG!

Towards the end of the 1988-1989 season the Bulls shifted Jordan to PG starting a stretch dubbed “Archangel” where Jordan averaged 11 assists as the Bulls PG. After a promising start the Bulls ultimately went 13-11 ending the season having lost 8 of their final 10 games. Accordingly Jordan’s point-duties were scaled back in the postseason…up until
https://youtu.be/uNi_3ex83ts?t=57

This so happens to be the game we’re about to track. Unfortunately the highlight videos I found shared several irregularities (missing assists, non-assists, cuts right after passes, ect) so I’ll be using footage of the full game for this tracking. We’re going to count all the same stuff we counted in the previous thread:

Spoiler:

1. Defenders taken out (DTOs) -> this is when a player entirely or near-entirely renders a defender unable to affect an offensive play themselves(excepting a reset)

2. Additional Defenders Affected (ADAs) -> this is when a player helps render a defender unable to affect an offensive play

Will be looking for these on non-baskets and on rebounds and will be counting the two as separate things. Will also count plays where there was an opportunity to take-advantage of a player's off-ball creation but the opportunity was passed on. Will not be looking for on-ball creation though I encourage any interested party to look for the same things with the ball. I also encourage any interested party to do their own tracking/vetting.

…

I will also be qualitatively judging “creations” as either “Great”, “Good”, “Decent’, or “Weak”.

I have chosen 1 game for each player and will look at the first 40-possessions of each.

Also, in order cover what I perceived as a gap in my previous tracking, we’ll be counting something else:
[spoiler]

5. The value of compromised defenders is not linear

This is particularly pertinent with players who are creating more via volume(alot of assists) as opposed to efficiency (high DTO-per assist). There are more players can reliably take out their own man than players who can reliably take out 2 defenders and there are more players who can reliably take out 2 men than there are players who can capitalize on opportunities to take out 3 and so on. DTO is basically assuming all “defenders taken out” are created equal, inflating the assist/creation quality of players who are doing lots of replaceable things vs players doing less hard to replace things. If this tracking is representative, Bird who took out multiple defenders in only 4 of his 13 assists might be a beneficiary of this. Accordingly, I might start counting Extra Defenders Taken Out (EDTO) with future tracking.

EDTOs are defenders you take out who aren’t primarily responsible for guarding you. Please note that in a possession where a player makes multiple passes, EDTOs will not be counted for taking out a guy who is primarily guarding that player a second time. Nor will they be counted if a new defender taken out happens to be your guy.

As always vetting is encouraged.

Let’s begin:

(1:01, Pippen goes out)

Assist 1 - 3:19

Jordan gets free at the elbow, receives the ball, goes towards the free-throw line and takes out two defenders with a jump-pass to find Grant with plenty of work to do. He also distracts Laimbeer giving Grant an opening to go to squeeze into. It’s not a difficult pass(especially for bigger players) but Jordan’s scoring threat demanding a double inside is what creates this opportunity. I also think he had a more valuable read available to him at 3:17 but both seeing that window and hitting that target are tough asks for Jordan. Decent

Assist 2 - 3:30

Jordan brings the ball up and finds hodges at the elbow taking his own guy out. Hodges does the rest. Weak

Assist 3 - 6:50

Jordan drives past his own man and hands it to Sellers. He then screens out Seller’s defender giving him 2 DTOs leading to a wide-open jumper. Clever. Good

Assist 4 - 7:52

Jordan drives to the elbow drawing a double. He finds Sellers at the top of the key taking out his own guy and delaying Seller’s man to create a window for Sellers to get to the paint and hit a jumper. Decent

Assist 5 - 10:09

Jordan gets the ball at the top key, drives past his own guy, passes it around a second, and distracts a third with some manipulation to create an open layup for Grant. Good

[b[Assist 6[/b] - 28:48

Jordan receives the ball back-court, takes a few steps forward and throws it to Hodges who converts a semi-contested jumper. Hodges’ defender is distracted by Jordan giving Hodges a bit of extra time to get the shot off. Credit for the accurate pass, I don’t think everyone throws it that nicely but it’s not a great look and Jordan does very little to the opposing defense. Weak

Assist 7 - 36:15

Jordan gets the ball for a 2 v 1 with Hodges who does a give and go. Jordan waits till the defenders cheats his direction to find Hodges for a wide-open layup taking out the Pistons last defender. Jordan’s gravity and speed on the break helps create about as easy as a shot as you get so I’ll grade it as Decent

Assist 8 - 46:30

Jordan leads the break drawing two defenders and distracting a third to set-up Hodges (again). Good

Assist 9 - 56:15

Jordan gets the ball mid-post and takes it in drawing a double and distracting Aguire allowing Davis to convert a wide open layup. Probably his best assist so far, leveraging his unique threat at the rim, his handles, and his hops to make an easy look very few other players in the league would while displacing 3 defenders. It’s a very good assist but as I’ve called these sorts of plays “good” for others tracked, I’ll have to be consistent and call this one Good as well.

Assist 10 - 58:10

Jordan drives to the FT-line from the elbow distracting Cartwright’s man before taking out his own with a shot-attempt questionably revised as a pass. (I think?) Decent.

Assist 10 - 1:10:50

Jordan goes in drawing a double. He kicks it out to Paxson who converts an open three. Good

Assist 11 - 1:15:00

Jordan runs the break driving and drawing a double and distracting Laimbeer. Jordan finds Paxson wide open in the corner. Paxson converts. Good.

Assist 12 - 1:20:45

Jordan gets the ball at the elbow drawing a triple and then taking out 2 defenders with a kick-out to Paxson who converts an open jumper. Good

Assist 13 - 1:29:53

Jordan goes to the elbow, is doubled and fires overhead to take out both and set-up an open dunk. Jordan also freezes and takes out Laimbeer. Great


Tally and Analysis

For Jordan’s 13 tracked assists, I gave him 21 22 DTOs, 910 EDTOs, and 8 ADAs giving MJ a total of 2829 defenders affected; This also gives Jordan per-assist rates of 1.61.7 defenders taken out, 0.70.8 extra defenders taken out, and 2.2 total defenders affected.

For a comparison to other perimeter contemporaries, over 13 tracked assists(86 Finals Game 1), Bird had 16 DTOs, 7 EDTOs, and 9 ADAs for a total of 25 defenders affected and per-assist rates of 1.2 defenders taken out, .54 extra defenders taken out, and 1.9 total defenders affected.

For Magic’s 17 tracked assists(86 WCF Game 1), I gave him 37 DTOs, 19 EDTOs, and a total of 3 ADAs giving Magic a total of 40 defenders affected; This also gives Magic per-assist rates of 2.2 defenders taken out, 1.1 extra defenders taken out, and 2.4 total defenders affected.

Here is a record for how other players(or other versions of the same player) have fared using this tracking-process (excluding EDTOs):

Spoiler:

For a comparative frame, Hakeem, per-assist, had 2.3 DTOs and 2.9 defenders affected in HOU-LAC game 5 and HOU-SEA game 7(93, 12 total assists). Over 8 assists in the first game of the 2009 ECF I had Lebron with 2.4 DTOs per assist and 3 defenders affected on average. Over 8 on video Jordan assists in the 5th game of the 1991 finals, I gave Jordan, per assist, 1.5 DTOs and 1.9 total defenders affected on average.

Jordan looks about on-par with what I expected here, snuggling in between Bird and Magic in terms of quality. He’s closer to Bird than Magic in DTOs and EDTOs but closer to Magic than Bird in terms of total affected defenders. He isn’t leveraging elite anticipation to make home-run plays the way Lebron and Magic do, and he isn’t exerting the same degree of gravity as dominant post-bigs(or Lebron), but he’s a good ball-handler and dangerous inside which allows him to reliably draw extra defenders at a solid clip. As this is assist-specific tracking, the frequency he is wasting or capitalizing on these opportunities isn’t captured (or the frequency at which his teammates waste or capitalize), but if representative then it’s probably fair to say Jordan is a very good but not elite creator (at least among all-time players) with the likes of Lebron and Magic comfortably grading out better in terms of quality as well as volume(Magic’s advantage on the latter front being much larger than Lebron).

Jordan does a little better here than he did in 1991 by what’s being counted and my impression is that what was counted undersells the gap - The 1991 Lakers were a much weaker defense than the 89 Pistons and I’d say the defense helped Jordan create there in a way it didn’t here - but it’s not looking dramatically different. It’ll be interesting to see if pre-triangle Jordan maintains, loses, or expands his advantage vs triangle MJ as the sample increases(will probably be 93 Jordan in the near future). It’s also worth noting that the game I tracked for 1991 had 2 missing assists in the video I used. If, like with this game, the missing assists tended to be lower quality(thereby not highlight-worthy), the gap might be a little bigger.

No outlets, no lobs, and no skip passes. All the edtos come from drive and kick or drive and throw to adjacent teammate. In terms of passing diet, Hakeem is most similar: less driving but triple-teams replace double-teams. Lebron, Magic, and Bird all seemed to have significantly more variety with how they took out defenders.


I’ll end this by copying and pasting the caveats from the last couple of threads. The subject’s Bird, but all of this applies here too I think

Spoiler:

1. Quantity matters too

Bird averaged 9 assists this finals so even if this sample is representative, this doesn’t stop Bird from creating more than players who generate higher quality assists but register less of them.

2. What isn’t counted

While Bird scoring poorly here aligns with some of the per-possession tracking we’ve done
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=114250252#p114250252

alot is left out when you only look at plays featuring assists:

Secondary creation, the effect a player has as a ball-handler, rebounding gravity, and creation which is not capitalized on are not captured here.

If you have multiple teammates who can do alot themselves (mchale, parish, to a degree ainge), your contributions may be more likely to end in scores. Bird’s total creation may be overrepresented by whatever he is creating in the plays he records an assist relative to players with less fortunate context:


Any sort of off-ball creation would not show up(unless it occurs alongside an assist-play) and while I’m skeptical how much is there
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=114336565#p114336565
a truly holistic appraisal would account for that as well.

3. Misses/Turnovers

A benefit of working off-ball is you have less opportunity to turn the ball over. A con is you have less opportunity to draw extra defenders thereby “missing” potential passing windows. Neither shows up if you’re just tracking assist-plays.

Isiah vs Stockton intrigues me and is something multiple posters here have expressed interest in. Might be on deck (though I’ve said this before). Would also be the first time this process is applied to non-MVPs.

[tsherkin]

Isiah vs Stockton intrigues me and is something multiple posters here have expressed interest in. Might be on deck (though I’ve said this before). Would also be the first time this process is applied to non-MVPs.

All tracking stuff is welcome, because it offers a different way to look at things. A proper examination of Stockton's playmaking is something I am personally very interested to see.

This one ended up about as I expected. Jordan was never really known as a high-end playmaker, but as a good one. Apart from the odd person bringing up "point MJ," people primarily discuss his scoring or his defense. It's not even a major point of separation between Jordan and someone like Kobe. You could even argue that McGrady was a better playmaker, so this lines up with a lot of other descriptions of that element of his game. Good, but non-elite despite that stretch of volume production.

[SHAQ32]

It's not even a major point of separation between Jordan and someone like Kobe.

[tsherkin]

It's not even a major point of separation between Jordan and someone like Kobe.

Ah, the crappy stealth-quote, lol.

[HauschkaEST]

This is a strange thread. The year he played point for a chunk of the season, Jordan was a superb playmaker.
If he had more practice at the point, I have no doubt that he would have become an elite passer.
One simply needs to watch the 1991 finals, where he took the reins to understand this.
Where he excelled was being able to find bigs inside, which is considerably difficult with a clogged lane.

A (likely biased) analysis of one game can't change this.
From what I've seen from this forum, there's a cult-like attempt to prop up LeBron James and tear down Michael Jordan.
It's bizarre.

By the way, can someone explain why new members must wait four days to post on the general forum but can post
here immediately?

[KembaWalker]

This is a strange thread. The year he played point for a chunk of the season, Jordan was a superb playmaker.
If he had more practice at the point, I have no doubt that he would have become an elite passer.
One simply needs to watch the 1991 finals, where he took the reins to understand this.
Where he excelled was being able to find bigs inside, which is considerably difficult with a clogged lane.

A (likely biased) analysis of one game can't change this.
From what I've seen from this forum, there's a cult-like attempt to prop up LeBron James and tear down Michael Jordan.
It's bizarre.

By the way, can someone explain why new members must wait four days to post on the general forum but can post
here immediately?

get used to it buddy, this is a organized thing (like, they have organized discord servers and alt accts on VPNs just to push this stuff..its very weird)
the mods know about it, have discussed it with them in DMs but they won't/can't get a handle on it or are involved

realgm is only good in the team specific boards if your teams is active or the OT boards. everywhere else is just offsite organized trolling for the most part

[OhayoKD]

This is a strange thread. The year he played point for a chunk of the season, Jordan was a superb playmaker.
If he had more practice at the point, I have no doubt that he would have become an elite passer.
One simply needs to watch the 1991 finals, where he took the reins to understand this.

You're talking about this series?
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2404639

If by elite passer you mean not on par with 22 year old Lebron, sure I guess.

A (likely biased) analysis of one game can't change this.

How about the actual results of that whole stretch:

Spoiler:

lebron archangel (2010), 11-0 +8 net with starters(- mo williams) that went on a 15-win pace trying to win
jordan archangel, (1989), 13-11, +2 net, with a team that won 27 tanking before he got there

Huh, who would have thought. Similar assists =/ similar impact when one of the players draws more defensive attention, finds windows quicker, and wastes said windows at a much lower clip.

From what I've seen from this forum, there's a cult-like attempt to prop up LeBron James and tear down Michael Jordan.
It's bizarre.

Yes, the bizarre practice of actually watching games instead of the box-score.

By the way, can someone explain why new members must wait four days to post on the general forum but can post
here immediately?

Because this cult isn't all that gatekeepy. Shame

[Djoker]

This is a strange thread. The year he played point for a chunk of the season, Jordan was a superb playmaker.
If he had more practice at the point, I have no doubt that he would have become an elite passer.
One simply needs to watch the 1991 finals, where he took the reins to understand this.
Where he excelled was being able to find bigs inside, which is considerably difficult with a clogged lane.

A (likely biased) analysis of one game can't change this.
From what I've seen from this forum, there's a cult-like attempt to prop up LeBron James and tear down Michael Jordan.
It's bizarre.

By the way, can someone explain why new members must wait four days to post on the general forum but can post
here immediately?

With all due respect, elite passer is quite a bit of an exaggeration. MJ was certainly a good solid passer and he showed that especially in 1991 but he wasn't elite. Elite is reserved for Magic, Bird, Jokic... those kind of guys. Lebron is a better passer than Jordan too although I don't quite see him on par with those guys in the first group.

Jordan made up for his non-elite passing by just leveraging his scoring to a huge degree. You had to double and triple to stop him from going off and he often had to make very basic "Rondo assists" and his teammates would still be open because he attracted a ton of attention. That's why he's a very high volume playmaker from 1989-1993 (by say Box Creation tracked by Thinking Basketball) even though he's definitely not an elite passer. Guys also don't become elite passers. They can become more willing passers but court vision doesn't just magically improve by more than just a very slight margin.

[OhayoKD]

This is a strange thread. The year he played point for a chunk of the season, Jordan was a superb playmaker.
If he had more practice at the point, I have no doubt that he would have become an elite passer.
One simply needs to watch the 1991 finals, where he took the reins to understand this.
Where he excelled was being able to find bigs inside, which is considerably difficult with a clogged lane.

A (likely biased) analysis of one game can't change this.
From what I've seen from this forum, there's a cult-like attempt to prop up LeBron James and tear down Michael Jordan.
It's bizarre.

By the way, can someone explain why new members must wait four days to post on the general forum but can post
here immediately?

With all due respect, elite passer is quite a bit of an exaggeration. MJ was certainly a good solid passer and he showed that especially in 1991 but he wasn't elite. Elite is reserved for Magic, Bird, Jokic... those kind of guys. Lebron is a better passer than Jordan too although I don't quite see him on par with those guys in the first group.

Not seeing it for Bird here. Lebron can throw it further and faster and more accurately and sees and fires on openings as quickly(is probably quicker with the latter).

Jordan made up for his non-elite passing by just leveraging his scoring to a huge degree. You had to double and triple to stop him from going off and he often had to make very basic "Rondo assists" and his teammates would still be open because he attracted a ton of attention.

Excepting Bird, neither offensive results/overall results(paticularly from his arch-angel stretch) nor tracking(I don't think box-creation qualifies) from anyone seems to bear this out. Jordan isn't at a gravity advantage in regard to Lebron or Magic. Probably at a disadvantage compared to the former

Guys also don't become elite passers. They can become more willing passers but court vision doesn't just magically improve by more than just a very slight margin.

Probably true.

[Lost92Bricks]

Why are there no threads like this about Lebron.

Why the vendetta against Jordan and 90's stars on this board.

[AEnigma]

Why are there no threads lie this about Lebron.

Why the vendetta against Jordan and 90's stars on this board.

Maybe because we are running a Retro Player of the Year project that happens to have been covering 1989 and 1990 this week. Or is that not conspiratorial enough for you.

[Lost92Bricks]

Maybe because we are running a Retro Player of the Year project that happens to have been covering 1989 and 1990 this week. Or is that not conspiratorial enough for you.

It's been going on longer than this project and you know it.

Y'all are picking at his career in every way. There are rarely any positive threads on here about MJ.

You can make these assist tracking, discrediting type threads about every player. But you focus on him.

[AEnigma]

Maybe because we are running a Retro Player of the Year project that happens to have been covering 1989 and 1990 this week. Or is that not conspiratorial enough for you.

It's been going on longer than this project and you know it.

Y'all are picking at his career in every way. There are rarely any positive threads on here about MJ.

You can make these assist tracking, discrediting type threads about every player. But you focus on him.

Is that “focus” on Jordan at the supposed exclusion of every player a coherent reason why the OP links to the same being done for Bird and Magic?

[Lost92Bricks]

Is that “focus” on Jordan at the supposed exclusion of every player a coherent reason why the OP links to the same being done for Bird and Magic?

Why is there no vendetta against players from the 2000's and 2010's.

[Amares]

Why are there no threads like this about Lebron.

Why the vendetta against Jordan and 90's stars on this board.

I saw various tracking for Bird, Magic, LeBron, Jordan, Hakeem, so either you missed them or just don't like results and how it really was with Jordan. Also probably it's about him currently due to:
a) RPOTY project being in 1988-1991 phase
b) Years of hearing about how he was greatest defender in the league or how could he be the greatest playmaker (if he only wanted) due to his triple double series and so many assists in 1991 finals

It's always good to check what was the reality and what just a narrative

[homecourtloss]

Is that “focus” on Jordan at the supposed exclusion of every player a coherent reason why the OP links to the same being done for Bird and Magic?

Why is there no vendetta against players from the 2000's and 2010's.

Y'all are picking at his career in every way. There are rarely any positive threads on here about MJ.

You can make these assist tracking, discrediting type threads about every player. But you focus on him.

See what’s funny and ironic is that “LeBron something something (usually pejorative in nature)” threads discrediting every facet of his career and game and personal things, threads that “pick on him,” abound on this site and their quantity dwarf any about Jordan or other ‘80’s players, but you (and others here) didn’t notice/care/overlooked those threads because you agreed with them/saw them as evident truth/etc., but are upset now because there are a few threads where anyone dares discuss the hagiographied one in ways other than hagiography.

Also, if we’re talking about the 2000s and 2010s, then add on the hundreds and hundreds of threads about Kobe.

[lessthanjake]

Why are there no threads like this about Lebron.

Why the vendetta against Jordan and 90's stars on this board.

I saw various tracking for Bird, Magic, LeBron, Jordan, Hakeem, so either you missed them or just don't like results and how it really was with Jordan. Also probably it's about him currently due to:
a) RPOTY project being in 1988-1991 phase
b) Years of hearing about how he was greatest defender in the league or how could he be the greatest playmaker (if he only wanted) due to his triple double series and so many assists in 1991 finals

It's always good to check what was the reality and what just a narrative

I think this is a bit naive, because it is obvious that some of the tracking was done to prop up certain players (LeBron, Hakeem, and Magic), while some of it was done to tear down other players (Jordan and Bird). If you told me what poster was doing the tracking and what players they did, I could’ve absolutely told you what the general results of the tracking would be for each player before ever seeing it. It’s a subjective exercise being done by someone with a very strong ideological agenda.

Of course, one could argue that, even if the tracking is agenda-driven, the fact that it was done for several players means that Lost92Bricks is wrong that things are focused on Jordan. That’s perhaps a fair point, but even that is a bit naive. Ultimately, the views here are largely downstream of Jordan/LeBron. Let’s take Magic and Bird. Why is propping up Magic and tearing down Bird downstream of a Jordan/LeBron argument? Well, you’ll see these same people arguing that Magic was a heliocentric offensive player like LeBron while Bird was a more off-ball-focused player like Jordan, and that Magic being better offensively than Bird is basically proof of concept that LeBron’s playstyle is more effective and proven than Jordan’s. So these people feel like Magic being superior offensively to Bird fits their narrative about LeBron and Jordan. With Hakeem, it’s just in large part about portraying a contemporary of Jordan as being very close to him (or even better). And this isn’t really me speculating. If you pay attention to what people say across threads, you can see that these arguments about these other players do, in fact, carry through to their Jordan/LeBron arguments, and also that Jordan/LeBron arguments are, by far, the primary focus of these posters. While this post will probably elicit a snarling response or two from certain posters, I really don’t think it’s rocket science to clearly infer what’s going on.

All that said, I don’t think you need to have an agenda to come to the conclusion that Magic Johnson was a better playmaker than Bird or Jordan. So I don’t think it’s all completely off-base, though obviously an inherently subjective exercise being done by an ideologue will basically always just confirm that person’s priors, and indeed that’s typically the point of the exercise.

[EmpireFalls]

I like looking at this stuff and wish more discussion was play-by-play focused with film breakdown. It appears there is some bias seeping through, but that’s expected for the territory. Really the only way to have an actual fair discussion is to sit and watch side by side and get real time takes.

I’d say MJ’s shotmaking ability goes a little underdiscussed in this particular exercise though.

[AEnigma]

Love how so much of the response to these threads devolves into meta-commentary on “ideology” rather than offer any legitimate engagement with the time-stamped film review itself. So much easier to obliquely attack perceived biases of others than to justify your own.

[OhayoKD]

Why are there no threads like this about Lebron.

Why the vendetta against Jordan and 90's stars on this board.

I saw various tracking for Bird, Magic, LeBron, Jordan, Hakeem, so either you missed them or just don't like results and how it really was with Jordan. Also probably it's about him currently due to:
a) RPOTY project being in 1988-1991 phase
b) Years of hearing about how he was greatest defender in the league or how could he be the greatest playmaker (if he only wanted) due to his triple double series and so many assists in 1991 finals

It's always good to check what was the reality and what just a narrative

I think this is a bit naive, because it is obvious that some of the tracking was done to prop up certain players (LeBron, Hakeem, and Magic), while some of it was done to tear down other players (Jordan and Bird). If you told me what poster was doing the tracking and what players they did, I could’ve absolutely told you what the general results of the tracking would be for each player before ever seeing it. It’s a subjective exercise being done by someone with a very strong ideological agenda.

The way one argues that tape is being interpreted unfairly due to bias is by highlighting instances of uneven treatment/judgment. Writing a three paragraph accusation which doesn't attempt this says more about your own biases than mine.

I like looking at this stuff and wish more discussion was play-by-play focused with film breakdown. It appears there is some bias seeping through, but that’s expected for the territory. Really the only way to have an actual fair discussion is to sit and watch side by side and get real time takes.

I’d say MJ’s shotmaking ability goes a little underdiscussed in this particular exercise though.

See above.

I have posted the video and I have posted the time-stamps. Currently the singular example of someone going through the assists and disagreeing with a specific judgment came in the Bird thread, where the poster argued I was too generous with an assist i graded for someone I am apparently screwing over.

My agenda or bias really does not matter unless it actually adversely affects the interpretation of the film, and I have provided all that one needs to vet my tracking for such adverse effects. Those who are too lazy to engage in such a process, are admitting they are also too lazy to have a valuable opinion on the bias or lackthereof present here.