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99 Finals Defensive Tracking: Twin Tower Twin Tracking

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2024 10:32 pm
by OhayoKD
Last week we looked at a one tower Houston team
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2423017

Now we’re trying twins.

Unlike last time we are specifically keying in on rim-protection. Limited time and personal skepticism about either being the most used perimeter defender on a notable degree of possessions is why we’re returning to roots. That said, I'm going to list the perimeter defense inputs anyway in-case anyone wants to give a whirl looking for those on the tracked possessions, be it for Drob, Duncan, or a less regarded teammate.

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Going to track the first 40-possessions including possessions where Duncan plays and Drob does not and vice versa while keeping a cumulative tally as well as a “Drob and Duncan are on the court” tally.

Here are the countables were tracked across the previous thread:
Spoiler:
Paint-Protection. A lot of ink has been spilled arguing for it as the singularly most important component of an individual defender’s ability to help his team prevent the other guys from scoring. It’s also an aspect of the game that is poorly quantified, especially pre-data ball. Blocks are by and large the primary measure people use, but a look at usage (rim-load, measured by PPs (Primary Protections)) reveals that even players who offer very little rim-protection can be made to look like centerpieces if one limits their evaluation to counting how often contact is made with the ball:
viewtopic.php?t=2387572

That said, I think rim-load has a glaring blind-spot. What if the reason a player is used as a paint-protector…because the opponent wants them to be used as one?

Corzine and Oakley both were the primary or co-primary paint protectors on a boatload of possessions above. But is Corzine’s relativity to Oakley there the Bull’s doing, or their own? Jokic spends alot of time defending the paint, even compared to other bigs. Is he a great rim-protector? Or is he just being hunted by opposing offenses?

To answer these queries, I present the latest product of Eye-Test, Inc:

Irrational Avoidances (IA).

The following conditions must be met to rack up an Irrational Avoidance…

1) More of your team’s defenders are on the opposing side of the floor for a sequence (There can be multiple sequences per possession)
2) Despite this the attacker/attacking team chooses to attack the side with more defenders
3) This decision is made after a reset or in the half-court/semi-transition

Note, “the floor” here really describes the area of space a set of defenders covers, not the literal floor. Additionally the sides are determined using the vantage point of the initial ball-handler. If you can imagine a symmetric line being drawn from the ball-handler’s POV to the basket…being to the left or right of said line determines what side you’re on. I will also exclusively look at how a sequence starts.

A “sequence” ends whenever there is a pause in the ball-handlers movement or the possession finishes.

EPP - Effective primary protections - This is when a PP is deemed effective
IPP - Ineffective Primary Protections - This is when a PP is deemed ineffective

PPDs - Primary Perimeter defendings - This credits a player as the primary or co-primary perimeter defender for a possession

EPPD - Effective Primary Perimeter defendings - When a PPD is deemed effective
IPPD - Ineffective Primary Perimeter defendings - When a PPD is deemed ineffective



There is a great deal more grey area here than with the creation stuff I think. Vetting and perhaps some discussion on what should be counted or not counted is welcomed. If you just want to see the numbers you can control+F for “Tally and Analysis”.

Let’s begin.


Possession 1 - 3:50

Like with Hakeem I’m not really sure I should be using “closer to the basket” as a tiebreaker against rim-protectors who are potentially more useful on the perimeter but that has been a factor in tracking for as long as I’ve been tracking this. (David Robinson - 1 PP)

Possession 2 - 4:50

Duncan is the last man between the ball-handler and the rim for a big chunk of he possession and successfully walls Johnson off. Johnson throws it to Dudley who Robinson is late to contest and fouls.

(Duncan - 1 PP, 1 EPP, Robinson - 2 PP, 1 IPP)

Possession 3 - 6:32

Robinson spends the most time(though not much) in the paint and by the basket. Duncan secures a rebound over an onrushing center.

(Duncan - 2 PP, 2 EPP, Robinson - 3 PP)

Possession 4 - 8:15

Neither.

Possession 5 - 8:45

Robinson is the only person back in the paint by the time the turnover occurs.


(Robinson - 4 PP)


Possession 6 - 9:25

Duncan spends the most time in the paint but Robinson swaps with him to go near the basket when the defense sets.

(Duncan - 3 PP, Robinson 5 PP)

Possession 7 - 10:10

Duncan is posted up against at the edge of the paint, contests a shot, and tries and fails to secure a rebound. Robinson spends the most time near the basket and fails to seal off his man on the rebound.

(Duncan - 4 PP, 1 IPP, Robinson - 6 PP, 2 IPP)

Possession 8 - 10:55

Robinson picks up the first IA (1). Duncan and Drob spend the possession in the paint. Drob spends it closer to the basket while Duncan tries to block a shot fails to secure a rebound vs a center Drob fails to seal off before lining up against said center in anticipation of a potential rebound.

(Duncan - 5 PP, 2 IPP, Robinson - 7 PP, 3 IPP)

Possession 9 - 12:17

Robinson is in the paint the most, by the basket the most, and the last line of defense on Sprewell’s drive. On the inbound Robinson hovers at the basket and catches a missed shot.

(Robinson - 8 PP, 1 EPP)

Possession 10 - 12:59

Duncan spends the most time in the paint and near the basket mostly guarding the opposing center before helping contest a miss in the paint. Think that equates to substantially more usage than Drob winning a rebound over the aforementioned center but there’s grey area there.

(Duncan - 6 PP, 3 EPP)

Possession 11 - 13:17

Neither

Possession 12 - 13:52

Duncan spends the possession in the paint, a big chunk at the basket, tries and fails to secure a rebound, successfully forces a miss at the basket and watches as Robinson seals off his center to start a San Antonio attack. This is an edge case for me but I think Robinson can be seen as a co-primary for doing more to potentially discourage Ward from driving earlier in the possession.

(Duncan - 7 PP, Robinson - 9 PP, 2 EPP)

Possession 13 - 15:00

Robinson spends more time near the basket and is the bigger deterrent for a potential drive mid-way through the possession. Duncan does the bulk of the work securing a board vs the Knicks center and also spends the possession in the paint. Wouldn’t really make sense to count Drob as a co-primary in the previous possession and not count Duncan as a co-primary in this one.

(Duncan - 8 PP, 4 EPP, Robinson - 10 PP, 3 EPP)

Possession 14 - 15:20

Usage is not efficacy. Duncan is the only one in the paint and in position to potentially contest Sprewell during the fast break. He is also too slow to react and allows an easy dunk.

(Duncan - 9 PP, 3 IPP)

Possession 15 - 15:51

Robinson spends the most time in the paint and nearly all of the possession near the basket. Duncan picks up sprewell, prevents him from driving to the basket and contests well even though the jumper goes in. Fwiw, this is the first time all game I’d count one of the two tracked towers - Duncan, as the Spurs primary perimeter defender.

(Duncan - 10 PP, 5 EPP, Robinson - 11 PP)

Possession 16 - 16:18

Duncan is the first player back in the paint on the fast break and the only player in Sprewell’s vicinity which technically would make him the Spurs primary perimeter defender as well. Doesn’t even get so much as a hand up though.

(Duncan - 11 PP, 4 IPP)

(Robinson goes to the bench)

Possession 17 - 18:30

Duncan spends the most time in the paint and as much time as anyone else near the basket handling the Knicks center.

(Duncan - 12 PP)

Possession 18 - 19:25

Malik Rose is the primary.

Possession 19 - 20:50

Malik Rose is the primary again.

Possession 20 - 22:24

Duncan gets his first IA(1) with the bounce pass coming to the side with 3 defenders not named Duncan. Similar situation to 97 Hakeem where the Spurs leave the basket area empty assuming Duncan can cover if anything goes wrong. Duncan hangs closer to the basket rather than the edge of the paint. As I didn’t count Hakeem as the primary there I won’t count Duncan as one here.

Possession 21 - 23:50

Duncan helps some boxing out but he’s last to the paint and Rose is the clear primary.

Possession 22 - 23:38

Duncan spends the most time in the paint and near the basket and is the only player left between Houston and the basket, contesting his jumper well when Ellie is burned.

(Duncan - 13 PP, 4 EPP)

Possession 23 - 25:00

The Spurs leave the space under the basket empty again. Duncan spends the most time in the paint and secures a rebound with no one challenging him.

(Duncan - 14 PP)

Possession 24 - 25:30

Duncan gets back to the paint first, lingers there for the rest of the possession and beats a center for a rebound with another attacker lingering.

(Duncan - 15 PP, 5 EPP)

Possession 25 - 26:00

Duncan is more on the perimeter and it doesn’t go well.

(Robinson comes back, Duncan exits)

On the first inbound Robinson is closest to the basket with all the other spurs leaving the paint empty. On the second inbound he’s at the perimeter like Duncan was and Elliot is the last line and successfully stops an attempt at the rim and forces a turnover. Overall tough to say anyone but Elliot is the primary for this three-possesion long possession.

Possession 26 - 28:09

Possibly the best defensive possession any Spur has had all game. Robinson spends the possession near the basket watching the center, discourages multiple potential passes, helps on a post-up, helps stuff one drives, pressures a player into a miss at the basket, and then stops a second drive helping force a turnover.

(Robinson - 12 PP, 4 EPP)

Possession 27 - 29:23

Elliot is the primary.

Possession 28 - 30:40

Robinson is the last to come back and the play is basically over when he enters the paint.

(Duncan comes back in)

Possession 29 - 32:30

Duncan gets back first, spends the most time in the paint, and the most time near the basket and stops his man from challenging Robinson. Robinson spends a bunch of time in the paint and secures a rebound on an island against the opposing center

(Robinson - 13 PP, 5 EPP, Duncan - 16 PP)

Possession 30 - 33:00

Duncan spends the possession in the paint and the most time near the basket, coming to the basket to meet a potential Johnson drive. Robinson also spends the possession in the paint and beats out Camby to secure a rebound on a missed free-throw

(Duncan - 17 PP, Robinson - 14 PP, 6 EPP)

Possession 31 - 34:40

Neither.

Possession 32 - 36:40

Neither

Possession 33 - 38:14

Robinson spends the most time in the paint and is the closest to the basket and fights the opposing center for a board. He loses that battle but a teammate covers.

(Robinson - 15 PP, 4 IPP)

Possession 34 - 39:41

Duncan starts the possession under the basket, helps on a post-up, hurries back to the basket to pre-empting a dunk attempt and then forces the opposing center out of the paint before sealing him off to help his team secure the rebound. 2nd best defensive possession I’ve tracked for either I think. See an argument for it as the best.

(Duncan - 18 PP, 5 EPP)

Possession 35 - 40:22

Duncan is the closest to the basket but isn’t asked to do anything with Sprewell hitting a jumper early.

(Duncan - 19 PP)

Possession 36 - 41:00

Duncan is nearest to the basket and there to cover if Drob is blown by. Moot because Elliot shoots before Drob can get there.

(Duncan - 20 PP, Robinson - 16 PP)



Possession 37 - 42:48

Duncan soars over his man to grab a rebound. Rose would probably be co-primary

(Duncan - 21 PP, 6 EPP)

Possession 38 - 43:00

Neither.

Possession 39 - 43:50

Robinson spends the most time in the paint and near the basket. He also takes the center out of the play allowing Duncan an easy rebound.

(Robinson - 17 PP, 7 EPP)

Possession 40 - 43:40

Could just repeat my description from the last possession except someone other than Duncan gets the rebound.

(Robinson 18 PP, 8 EPP)

Tally and Analysis

Overall

Spoiler:
Robinson:
-> 18 PPs
-> 8 EPPs
-> 4 IPPs
-> 1 IA

Duncan:
-> 21 PPs
-> 6 EPPs
-> 4 IPPs
-> 1 IA


Both Towers on the Court

Spoiler:
Robinson:
-> 17 PPs
-> 8 EPPs
-> 4 IPPs
-> 1 IA

Duncan:
-> 17 PPs
-> 4 EPPs
-> 4 IPPs
-> 0 IAs


During the Spurs’ first 40 defensive possessions, I gave Duncan, 21 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 4. Robinson was given 16 PPs as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 8 and ineffective in 6. Both had an irrational avoidance. When they shared the court Duncan and Robinson had 17 PPs each with Duncan being deemed effective in 4 and Robinson being deemed effective in 8. Both were deemed ineffective in 4. Robinson additionally had 1 IA

Over 37 possessions Duncan averaged .57 PPs, 0.16 EPPs, 0.11 IPPs, and 0.03 IAs.

Over 31 possessions Robinson averaged 0.58 PPs, 0.26 EPPs, 0.13 IPPs. 0.032 IAs.

For comparison, here’s how other tracked bigs fared (Rim-load was the only “stat” tracked for Ewing):
Spoiler:
During Hakeem’s first 40 possessions[Game 1, 97 WCF], I gave him, 27 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 13 and ineffective in 7. Hakeem also was given 4 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Additionally Hakeem was given 4 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Hakeem averaged, 0.675 PPs, 0.325 EPPs, 0.175 IPPs, 0.1 PPDs, 0.075 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.1 IAs.

Over 22 Possessions in the final game of the 94 ECSF vs Chicago, Ewing had 13 PPs and 3 IAs giving him, per possession, .59 PPs and 1.4 IAs. Perimeter usage and Efficacy, along with Paint efficacy were not tracked.


Across the board Hakeem fares better than either in the paint-stuff managing a higher clip of usage, effective plays, and a lower clip of ineffective plays over more possessions. Not tracked for these two, but I’d also say he was significantly more involved and effective as a perimeter defender than either.

My tracking suggests Ewing seemed to have similar usage on a team lacking an elite defensive big which I’d say reflects favorably for the Spur’s Twin Towers.

While, in this tracking, Duncan is, to my surprise, used more, he is also, to my surprise, seemingly more prone to messing up, less prone to high-value usage, and generally had an easier assignment in the paint. He was more active by my eye, by my eye but in terms of efficacy he and Robinson seemed like a mix bag. Per-Possession I’d say Robinson comes out looking significantly better and if this was how every single game the two played went I’d probably prefer Robinson slightly on that end despite the minutes disparity.

Both had what I’d consider their best defensive possessions without the other though by what was counted Duncan benefitted a little bit more.

IAs again drop with two elite defensive bigs sharing the floor. Makes sense I guess: What’s the point of dealing with more defenders when you’ll have to deal with a tower either way.

Both look like very valuable defenders, though if I was only working on this alone, I probably wouldn’t consider either a real DPOY candidate in most years. Neither really took over during the tracking defensively the way Hakeem did when Barkley went out in 97, and when Sampson went out in 86.


Will end this by copy and pasting the caveats noted from previous tracking:
Spoiler:
Usage =/ Effectiveness

Sampson and Walton were used as paint-protectors alot. But being used a lot doesn’t necessarily mean you’re doing that well. Sampson got burned, not overpowered, but outmaneuvered by the shadow of Bill Walton multiple times. Almost every time he went up against Mchale, Bird, Parish, or Waton, he was rendered a non or minute-factor.

Hakeem on the other hand, nearly always getting something positive engagement against opposing bigs and yielding some of the most valuable returns possible (multiple strong side blocks). As impressively, he largely maintained that efficacy despite his usage spiking with Sampson out.

Mchale was also pretty effective despite often taking the particularly difficult assignment of dealing with Hakeem.

Walton was a mixed-bag and I’m genuinely curious to what, if any, degree that high usage is a product of opposing teams seeing him as a liability in space.I’d say Bird mostly was ineffective as the primary rim-protector though it’s perhaps unfair to judge him too harshly here considering he was playing that role in near hopeless situations like 3 v 1s.

Ultimately for this sort of tracking to be truly comprehensive, I’ll need to be able to count proxies for efficacy, not simply volume/usage. Speaking of

IAs need rethinking

I was expecting them to occur much more frequently. Instead we have just a few instances to extrapolate from. Part of this expectation is noticing a fair-share of IA’s when I did a bit of creation-tracking for Lebron in the first game of the 2007 finals.

Them practically being non-existent here could speak to a variety of factors. Here are some potential explanations.

Mobile defenders render avoidance pointless

For an IA to occur, a player must decide to face more defenders rather than a particular defender. If the defender being avoided is excellent at covering ground, going tgrough a more crowded route may be less likely to offer you the avoidance you seek.

Good defensive teammates hurt
If you are wary of defenders on the side opposite to the player as well, is it worth shifting?

It’s possible the ideal scenario for IA accumulation is one where a player isn’t timely or capable of help and is surrounded by terrible rim-protectors.

I may need to lighten the conditions for what’s being counted. While I’m not going to use it much for analysis, I still plan on counting them for future defensive tracking ventures to see how different circumstances affect them.


Like I said last week, assist watching Isiah/Stockton and more rim-load tracking for Chicago is on my to-do list. Like I also said last week the to-do list also has applying the system used with 97 hakeem to another player. Thinking 2007 Lebron since I already have all the possessions I’d be tracking time-stamped and I suspect IAs have more use with big and strong wings who aren’t helping at the rim a bunch.

Re: 99 Finals Defensive Tracking: Twin Tower Twin Tracking

Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2024 1:11 pm
by penbeast0
Thanks for doing this. I know there is subjectivity but some of that comes out with a larger sample size and as long as you are consistent, it is another way to evaluate this subject which has been a topic for years.