2009 Lebron Conference Finals Defensive Tracking: Death by Dwight?
Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2025 5:30 am
Losing finalist Lebron last month
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=116276149#p116276149
Losing Conference Finalist Lebron today
An interesting claim popped up in the 2009 RPOY:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2433040
The 2009 Cleveland Cavaliers performed, statistically, like an all-time offense facing the #1 ranked defense, anchored by Dwight Howard: Officially voted DPOY and voted so unanimously by 2024 Retro POY voters. Yet Cleveland still lost thanks to the defense, which was great in the regular-season, and even better in the previous two rounds, collapsing dramatically under the weight of Dwight Howard and red-hot shooting. With Lebron’s 2009 ECF gaining traction as the best anyone has ever played on the back of what he did offensively; it seems fair to question what he offered defensively, being 2nd in DPOY voting both among official and RPOY voters, during what was still, overall, an underperformance relative to Cleveland’s regular-season.
To start answering this I’m going to bring back the Full version of the defensive tracking system we’ve used on three-players so far, including Lebron himself.
Here are the countables we’re going to use:
There is a great deal more grey area here than with the creation stuff I think. Vetting and perhaps some discussion on what should be counted or not counted is welcomed. If you just want to see the numbers you can control+F for “Tally and Analysis”.
Let’s begin.
Possession 1 - 1:55
Lebron spends the most time guarding an opposing ball-handler, picking up Alston from the back-court. He spends basically the rest of the possession as Cleveland’s backline big, including a few seconds where he’s parked on Dwight on an island. Think he’s at least a co-primary on the perimeter and paint here. You could argue for Varejoa on both fronts too (contests the shot, fronts Dwight, hovers around or at the paint for most of the possession though he never is really “near” the basket).
(Lebron - 1 PP, 1 PPD)
Possession 2 - 2:50
Lebron picks up Alston from half-court again. Alston throws the ball left and Lebron watches 3 of his teammates deal with the attack from the right
Possession 3 - 12:43
Alston drives on Lebron again and Lebron deflects his pass to another Magic player. Alstan runs to the other side and Lebron chases along the baseline before repositioning by the basket to deter any pass attempt at a rolling Dwight . The ball is then thrown to an unmarked Alstan who Lebron comes out and contests. Alston misses. This is clear cut.
(Lebron - 2 PPD, 1 EPPD)
Possession 4 - 16:55
Lebron picks up Alston again. Alston gives it to Hedo who lobs it right to Dwight for a basket. Lebron’s the primary here by default, presumably spending the most time guarding an opposing ball-handler (we miss the start of the possession). Maybe Co considering it’s probably more important to guard Hedo’s lob (Remember, usage=/ efficacy).
(Lebron - 3 PPD)
Possession 5 - 17:21
Lebron picks up Alston who swings the ball to the other side. Lebron then drops back to potentially help on Dwight, briefly watching him 1 on 1 as Igauskas shuffles towards Hedo.
Possession 6 - 18:00
Lebron gets his first IA as Alston uses a Dwight screen to dribble it towards the more crowded, Lebron-less side (1). Varejao gets in the way and Lebron gets around the screen in time to bat-away a pass attempt. Varejo gets the takeaway on the inbound. Seems fair to consider Lebron a co-primary here.
(Lebron - 4 PPD, 2 EPPD)
Possession 7 - 19:10
Lebron has little involvement as the attack develops but helps secure Cleveland ball on the rebound.
Possession 8 - 20:00
Lebron watches from around the free-throw line as the play develops.
Possession 9 - 20:20
Lebron gets his 2nd IA (2) as Alston turns and swings it with Dwight setting a screen to prevent Lebron from chasing. With Lebron not in between the basket and the ball-handler on either, both avoidances so far would qualify as “weak”. Lebron is there to help when Hedo drives. Hedo passes it to familiar foe Alston who Lebron funnels into Varejao.
Possession 10 - 21:20
Lebron starts on Alston, issuing instructions to two teammates. When Alston passes it off Lebron relocates at the edge of the paint. He shuffles to cover a potential pass attempt to Hedo. He then goes to the freethow line offering a second body vs Dwight and then creeps towards Lewis in case Lewis burns his man (He doesn’t).
Possession 11 - 21:50
Lebron is the last to get back and watches from the weak side as Dwight burns Ilgauskas for a layup.
Possession 12 - 22:25
Lebron follows Dwight into the paint as Magic break. Varejao switches onto him as Alston fires and swishes.
(Lebron, 2 PP)
Possession 13 - 26:20
Lebron picks up Alston again and gets around a Dwight screen to stay connected giving Alston no option facing traffic but to kick it out. Alston makes a great read and his teammate converts.
(Lebron - 5 PPD, 3 EPPD)
Possession 14 - 26:49
Alston on Lebron again and again Dwight screens to get Alston some daylight. Lebron gets around the screen and Alston bounces it to Dwight who rejected by Varejoa with Ilgauskas also helping.
(Lebron - 6 PPD)
Possession 15 - 27:52
When we cut from Craig Sager Lebron is in the paint with Alston. Alston curls outside to get the ball and Lebron follows. Dwight screens Lebron again and this time it works with Lebron getting stuck and being late to contest. Alston misses.
(Lebron - 7 PPD, 1 IPPD)
Possession 16 - 28:09
Lebron starts on Alston who passes it off, runs towards Hedo as he receives the ball open at the corner, and then helps on Dwight who gets the ball from Alston. Lebron helps Varejao force Dwight to the floor but Varejoa is called for a foul. Lebron starts facing Jaimeson on the inbound. Think he should count as a co-primary here.
(Lebron - 8 PPD)
Possession 17 - 29:22
Lebron picks up a foul trying to pressure Lewis in the backcourt. Lebron stays on Lewis as he brings the ball towards the key and then passes it off. Lebron follows him off-ball and watches Dwight lay-it-in.
(Lebron - 9 PPD)
Possession 18 - 30:30
Cavs are caught off-guard with an outlet. Lebron gets back and covers an attacker at the basket in case Lewis gets off a shot or pass. Lewis is fouled.
Possession 19 - 31:59
Alston brings the ball up again and Lebron picks him up. Alston lobs it to Hedo on the other side who throws it to Lewis who is blocked. PPD again, though mostly by default.
(Lebron - 10 PPD)
Possession 20 - 32:30
Anthony Johnson brings the ball up and Lebron picks him up. Johnson swings it to Hedo and Lebron retreats to the paint, deterring a potential Hedo-Dwight connection right under the basket. Dwight leaves the paint to get open and Lebron repositions towards the far-side. Lebron then exploits Dwight dealing with 2 Cavs (primarily Varejao) to reject his shot weakside. All considered I think that’s enough to be considered a co-primary even though, for the block specifically, Varejoa contributed more.
(Lebron - 3 PP, 1 EPP)
Possession 21 - 34:06
The ball is inbounded to Johnson. Lebron picks him up. Johnson throws it to Hedo. Lebron briefly covers two Orlando players before settling on Johnson when he receives the ball. Johnson swings the ball to Pietrus in the corner who drives inside. Lebron helps and Pietrus turns the ball over with an errant pass.
(Lebron - 11 PPD, 4 EPPD)
Possession 22 - 34:31
Hedo throws an outlet to Pietrus who charges towards the basket. Lebron goes for the chasedown block but comes up short.
(Lebron - 4 PP)
Possession 23 - 35:12
Lebron hangs around the top of the key.
Possession 24 - 23:43
Lebron watches from the top of the key as Marshall forces a deflection.
(Lebron goes to the bench)
(Lebron comes back at 49:56)
Possession 25 - 51:30
Lebron picks up Alston who throws it to Hedo. Hedo is fouled. Alston gets the ball again on the inbound and Johnson screens Lebron and rolls. Varejao switches but Lebron doesn’t follow Johson instead goes for the steal and misses. He also forces Varejao to take the long way to Johnson who takes advantage of the space to drive and kick it out to the elbow. Instead of picking up a wide-open Alston, Lebron goes after already-covered Hedo giving Alston acres to drive and dish. Orlando scores.
(Lebron - 12 PPD, 2 IPPD)
Possession 26 - 56:39
Picks up Alston as he brings the ball up. After Alston swings it Lebron slips to the basket where he waits on an island on a vacated paint-area discouraging Hedo from throwing it to Gortat. Instead Hedo throws the ball to Alston in the corner. Lebron leaves the paint to cover and Orlando capitalises throwing as Alston swings it to Lewis who drives and lays it in.
(Lebron - 5 PP, 2 EPP, 13 PPD)
Possession 27 - 57:24
First possession where Lebron is used as a full-on bigman with Lebron spending all the possession in the paint and most of it near the basket. Maybe in response to Ilgauskas being diced on the previous play? Hedo hits a jumper over Big Z.
(Lebron - 6 PP, 13 PPD)
Possession 28 - 57:58
Lebron starts the possession as a backline big waiting near the basket. Like 2 plays ago, he runs to Alston when he’s thrown the ball. This time Alston drives himself but Lebron funnels him into Ilgauskas forcing a bad pass. Ball goes out. On the inbound Varejao goes down on a pick and Lebron comes up to guard his man, funnelling him into Ilgauskas.
(Lebron - 7 PP, 14 PPD, 5 EPPD)
Possession 29 - 1:04:01
Alston brings the ball up again. Lebron picks him up again. Alston passes it off and Lebron watches the rest of the play from the free-throw line.
Possession 30 - 1:07:59
Alston vs Lebron starts the possession again. Lebron gives instructions to his teammates and then switches to Lewis who he then shadows on a drive before Lewis fakes a shot vs Ilgauskas and throws it to Hedo who converts the jumper.
(Lebron - 15 PPD)
Possession 31 - 1:08:51
Lebron retreats along the weak side as Lewis drives and picks up Gortat closing any potential passing window. Lewis turns it over.
Possession 32 - 1:09:53
Lebron watches Hedo drive on Mo-Williams for free-throws.
Possession 33 - 1:11:17
Lebron spends the most time in the paint and near the basket,deterring a potential feed to a rolling Gortat. He hangs there until Lewis gets at which point Ilgauskas takes over. Lebron waits behind Varejao in case he gets beat. Lewis pulls up and converts.
(Lebron - 8 PP)
Possession 34 - 1:11:48
Lebron spends a bit of time as the Cavs sole paint-defender before moving to contest an Alston jumper. Alston misses and Lebron returns to the paint. Hedo gets the ball and clanks a jumper.
Possession 35 - 1:12:34
Lebron picks up Alston and hounds him, even as Gostat sets a pick. Unfortunately Ilgauskas is too slow to reach a rolling Gortat and Alston is able to get off a pass leading to an easy dunk with 1 second left in the half.
(Lebron - 16 PPD)
Possession 36 - 1:34:43
Lebron picks up Alston who tosses it to Lewis. Lebron keeps watch from the edge of the paint and then comes to the basket to meet Dwight, deterring a potential pass from Hedo. Instead Turkoglu throws it to Alston in the corner and Lebron follows. Alston throws it to Lewis and Lebron returns to watch Dwight. Lewis drives and misses but Dwight beats Lebron for the putback. A valiant effort considering the matchup but this tracking system does not curve for position.
(Lebron 9 PP - 1 IPP)
Possession 37 - 1:35:20
Orlando break. Lebron chases Hedo into traffic and Hedo passes it off. Hedo gets the ball again and Lebron locks him down, pushing him towards the side-line and poking the ball out of bounds. On the inbound Lebron picks up Alston who gives it to JJ Reddick who gets fouled. On the second inbound Lebron is stationed at the edge of the paint as a secondary paint-protector. Dwight posts-up, drives, and throws a hook over Ilgauskas that neither Lebron or Varajao are able to retrieve.
(Lebron - 17 PPD, 6 EPPD)
Possession 38 - 1:36:57
Reddick brings the ball up and is fouled. Alston gets the ball on the rebound and Lebron picks him up. Dwight sets a screen, buying Alston time to get a shot off as Lebron contests late. Alston converts.
(Lebron - 18 PPD, 3 IPPD)
Possession 39 - 1:37:47
Lebron picks up Alston who bounces the ball to Dwight. Dwight then bodies Ilgauskas for space only to be rejected by Lebron on the weakside. Very effective secondary paint-protection but that is outside the scope of what’s being counted.
(Lebron - 19 PPD)
Possession 40 - 1:38:42
Lebron turns the ball over and then races back for a chase down block. He comes short.
(Lebron - 10 PP)
Tally and Analysis
Paint-Protection - Lebron
Perimeter Defense - Lebron
During Lebron’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 10 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 2 and ineffective in 1. Lebron also was given 18 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 3. Additionally, Lebron was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Lebron averaged, 0.25 PPs, 0.05 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.45 PPDs, 0.15 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.
During his first 40 possessions of the 2007 Finals, I gave Lebron 5 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Lebron also was given 16 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 9 and ineffective in 3. Additionally Lebron was given 9 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Lebron averaged, 0.125 PPs, 0.075 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.4 PPDs, 0.225 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.225 IAs
For comparison here is how the other two players tracked with this system faired:
Here’s how other players fared in terms of Paint-usage (only Duncan and Drob (1999 finals) had efficacy tracked)
While it’s possible this stretch of basketball is just an outlier, without a dramatic dip in performance in the other 11 halves of basketball uncovered, Lebron playing “distinctively negative” defense seems like a tough sell, with the implication Lebron was a low-usage defender not aligning with what is currently on tape. Lebron looks like his team’s most relied-upon perimeter defender while simultaneously being one of their most relied upon paint-protectors: a safe top 3 and depending on interpretations maybe top 2. With what was physically observed and counted it looks like a much better showing in terms of both efficacy and usage than what I tracked for one Jason Kidd: inside and out. Kidd does have a reputation as having intangible impact as a defensive floor-general, but that is currently outside of the scope of these trackings.
A comparison with the 2007 outing isn’t as clear cut with Lebron grading out higher in paint and perimeter usage in 2009 but having more of those plays deemed “effective” in 2007. San Antonio also far more blatantly making a point of avoiding him (A record breaking 9 IAs vs 2). That said, I think I’d have to favor 2007 as more “productive” with Lebron having a much more difficult primary assignment, being a much bigger focus of San Antonio’s offense, and having a lower-ratio of “co-primary” to outright primary plays. Lebron’s 2 IAs here were both “weak”, while there were IAs for Lebron which were accrued during plays the Spurs reset their offense multiple times to avoid Parker vs Lebron. While I think the numbers correctly reflect that Lebron was used alot more as a paint-protector, it’s worth noting he didn’t outright stop anyone at the paint strong-side. In the 40 possessions tracked for 2007 Lebron, that occurred twice. I think 2009 Lebron is also a bigger benefactor of “shorter” or “ensemble” possessions where what is required to be considered a primary or co-primary is lower. That said, there are points in favor of the 2009 tape. For one, Lebron’s “ineffective” plays are less severe/excusable. There is no equivalent of the IPP Lebron racked in 2007 by just not bothering to jump to stop someone smaller on a fast break. The sole IPP Lebron racked up for the 2009 tracking would probably be an extremely high-value possession facing almost any other matchup. There were also two near-home runs for 2009 Lebron in his two failed chasedown blocks.
Moreover, despite me thinking 2007 Lebron was more “productive” defensively over the 40 possessions tracked, if I only had these 80 defensive possessions to go off, I would probably favor 2009 Lebron for a series. While I think 2007 Lebron did more facing the Spurs, I would expect 2009 Lebron to be capable of replicating what 2007 Lebron did to the Spurs guards on the perimeter while offering more in the paint and being less error-prone.
The 97 Hakeem comparison is largely philosophical with Hakeem clearly outdoing Lebron inside and the reverse being true outside, Hakeem did rack up more total primaries (PPs+PPDs).
As a paint-protector Lebron looks pretty good relative to other tracked wings. He’s not too far off the current record for PPs (15). Wonder if he would get closer to or hit those marks if we looked at teams more starved for paint-protection. I might look at Lebron’s usage on the 2016 Cavs or 2013 Heat down the line.
On deck is Jordan: Expanding the sample for assessing him as a rim-protector and looking at what he offers outside. I’m especially curious how many IAs he racks up. By reputation opposing offenses made a point of avoiding direct confrontation similar to what we saw 2007 Lebron. This system also has yet to be applied to a high-stock guard. I’m particularly curious how he looks in comparison to Kidd.
Miscellaneous
Differentiated between “weak”’ and “strong” IAs as promised though I’d want to see more examples of them being a high-volume phenomena (like with 2007 Lebron) before I commit to listing the two separately
If I do start making it an “official” thing here is what distinguishes strong and weak:
Will probably want to give this a test-run at some point
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=116276149#p116276149
Losing Conference Finalist Lebron today
An interesting claim popped up in the 2009 RPOY:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2433040
eminence wrote:First point I'd qualify as disagreement - I see more problems with Brons play than just one scoring matchups. LeBron was well below his normal defensive impact vs Orlando in '09. And struggled in more areas offensively than just scoring vs the Celtics (TOV issues, and as the far and away primary ballhandler, it's at least partially on him if none of the rest of the team gets going - his playmaking was more limited than Robinsons ever was - in terms of percent of impact). Injury context is an explanation for why poor play occurs, it doesn't (at least for me) change anything in evaluating that play itself.
...
I 'acknowledged' that LeBron didn't have the energy (or the capability) to be a primary rim protector. Not that he couldn't/shouldn't have been better defensively, a pretty notable difference. I expected a lot more from him - for perspective, I grade it similarly to Melo's concurrent series vs the Lakers, which is, a distinct negative.
The 2009 Cleveland Cavaliers performed, statistically, like an all-time offense facing the #1 ranked defense, anchored by Dwight Howard: Officially voted DPOY and voted so unanimously by 2024 Retro POY voters. Yet Cleveland still lost thanks to the defense, which was great in the regular-season, and even better in the previous two rounds, collapsing dramatically under the weight of Dwight Howard and red-hot shooting. With Lebron’s 2009 ECF gaining traction as the best anyone has ever played on the back of what he did offensively; it seems fair to question what he offered defensively, being 2nd in DPOY voting both among official and RPOY voters, during what was still, overall, an underperformance relative to Cleveland’s regular-season.
To start answering this I’m going to bring back the Full version of the defensive tracking system we’ve used on three-players so far, including Lebron himself.
Here are the countables we’re going to use:
Spoiler:
There is a great deal more grey area here than with the creation stuff I think. Vetting and perhaps some discussion on what should be counted or not counted is welcomed. If you just want to see the numbers you can control+F for “Tally and Analysis”.
Let’s begin.
Possession 1 - 1:55
Lebron spends the most time guarding an opposing ball-handler, picking up Alston from the back-court. He spends basically the rest of the possession as Cleveland’s backline big, including a few seconds where he’s parked on Dwight on an island. Think he’s at least a co-primary on the perimeter and paint here. You could argue for Varejoa on both fronts too (contests the shot, fronts Dwight, hovers around or at the paint for most of the possession though he never is really “near” the basket).
(Lebron - 1 PP, 1 PPD)
Possession 2 - 2:50
Lebron picks up Alston from half-court again. Alston throws the ball left and Lebron watches 3 of his teammates deal with the attack from the right
Possession 3 - 12:43
Alston drives on Lebron again and Lebron deflects his pass to another Magic player. Alstan runs to the other side and Lebron chases along the baseline before repositioning by the basket to deter any pass attempt at a rolling Dwight . The ball is then thrown to an unmarked Alstan who Lebron comes out and contests. Alston misses. This is clear cut.
(Lebron - 2 PPD, 1 EPPD)
Possession 4 - 16:55
Lebron picks up Alston again. Alston gives it to Hedo who lobs it right to Dwight for a basket. Lebron’s the primary here by default, presumably spending the most time guarding an opposing ball-handler (we miss the start of the possession). Maybe Co considering it’s probably more important to guard Hedo’s lob (Remember, usage=/ efficacy).
(Lebron - 3 PPD)
Possession 5 - 17:21
Lebron picks up Alston who swings the ball to the other side. Lebron then drops back to potentially help on Dwight, briefly watching him 1 on 1 as Igauskas shuffles towards Hedo.
Possession 6 - 18:00
Lebron gets his first IA as Alston uses a Dwight screen to dribble it towards the more crowded, Lebron-less side (1). Varejao gets in the way and Lebron gets around the screen in time to bat-away a pass attempt. Varejo gets the takeaway on the inbound. Seems fair to consider Lebron a co-primary here.
(Lebron - 4 PPD, 2 EPPD)
Possession 7 - 19:10
Lebron has little involvement as the attack develops but helps secure Cleveland ball on the rebound.
Possession 8 - 20:00
Lebron watches from around the free-throw line as the play develops.
Possession 9 - 20:20
Lebron gets his 2nd IA (2) as Alston turns and swings it with Dwight setting a screen to prevent Lebron from chasing. With Lebron not in between the basket and the ball-handler on either, both avoidances so far would qualify as “weak”. Lebron is there to help when Hedo drives. Hedo passes it to familiar foe Alston who Lebron funnels into Varejao.
Possession 10 - 21:20
Lebron starts on Alston, issuing instructions to two teammates. When Alston passes it off Lebron relocates at the edge of the paint. He shuffles to cover a potential pass attempt to Hedo. He then goes to the freethow line offering a second body vs Dwight and then creeps towards Lewis in case Lewis burns his man (He doesn’t).
Possession 11 - 21:50
Lebron is the last to get back and watches from the weak side as Dwight burns Ilgauskas for a layup.
Possession 12 - 22:25
Lebron follows Dwight into the paint as Magic break. Varejao switches onto him as Alston fires and swishes.
(Lebron, 2 PP)
Possession 13 - 26:20
Lebron picks up Alston again and gets around a Dwight screen to stay connected giving Alston no option facing traffic but to kick it out. Alston makes a great read and his teammate converts.
(Lebron - 5 PPD, 3 EPPD)
Possession 14 - 26:49
Alston on Lebron again and again Dwight screens to get Alston some daylight. Lebron gets around the screen and Alston bounces it to Dwight who rejected by Varejoa with Ilgauskas also helping.
(Lebron - 6 PPD)
Possession 15 - 27:52
When we cut from Craig Sager Lebron is in the paint with Alston. Alston curls outside to get the ball and Lebron follows. Dwight screens Lebron again and this time it works with Lebron getting stuck and being late to contest. Alston misses.
(Lebron - 7 PPD, 1 IPPD)
Possession 16 - 28:09
Lebron starts on Alston who passes it off, runs towards Hedo as he receives the ball open at the corner, and then helps on Dwight who gets the ball from Alston. Lebron helps Varejao force Dwight to the floor but Varejoa is called for a foul. Lebron starts facing Jaimeson on the inbound. Think he should count as a co-primary here.
(Lebron - 8 PPD)
Possession 17 - 29:22
Lebron picks up a foul trying to pressure Lewis in the backcourt. Lebron stays on Lewis as he brings the ball towards the key and then passes it off. Lebron follows him off-ball and watches Dwight lay-it-in.
(Lebron - 9 PPD)
Possession 18 - 30:30
Cavs are caught off-guard with an outlet. Lebron gets back and covers an attacker at the basket in case Lewis gets off a shot or pass. Lewis is fouled.
Possession 19 - 31:59
Alston brings the ball up again and Lebron picks him up. Alston lobs it to Hedo on the other side who throws it to Lewis who is blocked. PPD again, though mostly by default.
(Lebron - 10 PPD)
Possession 20 - 32:30
Anthony Johnson brings the ball up and Lebron picks him up. Johnson swings it to Hedo and Lebron retreats to the paint, deterring a potential Hedo-Dwight connection right under the basket. Dwight leaves the paint to get open and Lebron repositions towards the far-side. Lebron then exploits Dwight dealing with 2 Cavs (primarily Varejao) to reject his shot weakside. All considered I think that’s enough to be considered a co-primary even though, for the block specifically, Varejoa contributed more.
(Lebron - 3 PP, 1 EPP)
Possession 21 - 34:06
The ball is inbounded to Johnson. Lebron picks him up. Johnson throws it to Hedo. Lebron briefly covers two Orlando players before settling on Johnson when he receives the ball. Johnson swings the ball to Pietrus in the corner who drives inside. Lebron helps and Pietrus turns the ball over with an errant pass.
(Lebron - 11 PPD, 4 EPPD)
Possession 22 - 34:31
Hedo throws an outlet to Pietrus who charges towards the basket. Lebron goes for the chasedown block but comes up short.
(Lebron - 4 PP)
Possession 23 - 35:12
Lebron hangs around the top of the key.
Possession 24 - 23:43
Lebron watches from the top of the key as Marshall forces a deflection.
(Lebron goes to the bench)
(Lebron comes back at 49:56)
Possession 25 - 51:30
Lebron picks up Alston who throws it to Hedo. Hedo is fouled. Alston gets the ball again on the inbound and Johnson screens Lebron and rolls. Varejao switches but Lebron doesn’t follow Johson instead goes for the steal and misses. He also forces Varejao to take the long way to Johnson who takes advantage of the space to drive and kick it out to the elbow. Instead of picking up a wide-open Alston, Lebron goes after already-covered Hedo giving Alston acres to drive and dish. Orlando scores.
(Lebron - 12 PPD, 2 IPPD)
Possession 26 - 56:39
Picks up Alston as he brings the ball up. After Alston swings it Lebron slips to the basket where he waits on an island on a vacated paint-area discouraging Hedo from throwing it to Gortat. Instead Hedo throws the ball to Alston in the corner. Lebron leaves the paint to cover and Orlando capitalises throwing as Alston swings it to Lewis who drives and lays it in.
(Lebron - 5 PP, 2 EPP, 13 PPD)
Possession 27 - 57:24
First possession where Lebron is used as a full-on bigman with Lebron spending all the possession in the paint and most of it near the basket. Maybe in response to Ilgauskas being diced on the previous play? Hedo hits a jumper over Big Z.
(Lebron - 6 PP, 13 PPD)
Possession 28 - 57:58
Lebron starts the possession as a backline big waiting near the basket. Like 2 plays ago, he runs to Alston when he’s thrown the ball. This time Alston drives himself but Lebron funnels him into Ilgauskas forcing a bad pass. Ball goes out. On the inbound Varejao goes down on a pick and Lebron comes up to guard his man, funnelling him into Ilgauskas.
(Lebron - 7 PP, 14 PPD, 5 EPPD)
Possession 29 - 1:04:01
Alston brings the ball up again. Lebron picks him up again. Alston passes it off and Lebron watches the rest of the play from the free-throw line.
Possession 30 - 1:07:59
Alston vs Lebron starts the possession again. Lebron gives instructions to his teammates and then switches to Lewis who he then shadows on a drive before Lewis fakes a shot vs Ilgauskas and throws it to Hedo who converts the jumper.
(Lebron - 15 PPD)
Possession 31 - 1:08:51
Lebron retreats along the weak side as Lewis drives and picks up Gortat closing any potential passing window. Lewis turns it over.
Possession 32 - 1:09:53
Lebron watches Hedo drive on Mo-Williams for free-throws.
Possession 33 - 1:11:17
Lebron spends the most time in the paint and near the basket,deterring a potential feed to a rolling Gortat. He hangs there until Lewis gets at which point Ilgauskas takes over. Lebron waits behind Varejao in case he gets beat. Lewis pulls up and converts.
(Lebron - 8 PP)
Possession 34 - 1:11:48
Lebron spends a bit of time as the Cavs sole paint-defender before moving to contest an Alston jumper. Alston misses and Lebron returns to the paint. Hedo gets the ball and clanks a jumper.
Possession 35 - 1:12:34
Lebron picks up Alston and hounds him, even as Gostat sets a pick. Unfortunately Ilgauskas is too slow to reach a rolling Gortat and Alston is able to get off a pass leading to an easy dunk with 1 second left in the half.
(Lebron - 16 PPD)
Possession 36 - 1:34:43
Lebron picks up Alston who tosses it to Lewis. Lebron keeps watch from the edge of the paint and then comes to the basket to meet Dwight, deterring a potential pass from Hedo. Instead Turkoglu throws it to Alston in the corner and Lebron follows. Alston throws it to Lewis and Lebron returns to watch Dwight. Lewis drives and misses but Dwight beats Lebron for the putback. A valiant effort considering the matchup but this tracking system does not curve for position.
(Lebron 9 PP - 1 IPP)
Possession 37 - 1:35:20
Orlando break. Lebron chases Hedo into traffic and Hedo passes it off. Hedo gets the ball again and Lebron locks him down, pushing him towards the side-line and poking the ball out of bounds. On the inbound Lebron picks up Alston who gives it to JJ Reddick who gets fouled. On the second inbound Lebron is stationed at the edge of the paint as a secondary paint-protector. Dwight posts-up, drives, and throws a hook over Ilgauskas that neither Lebron or Varajao are able to retrieve.
(Lebron - 17 PPD, 6 EPPD)
Possession 38 - 1:36:57
Reddick brings the ball up and is fouled. Alston gets the ball on the rebound and Lebron picks him up. Dwight sets a screen, buying Alston time to get a shot off as Lebron contests late. Alston converts.
(Lebron - 18 PPD, 3 IPPD)
Possession 39 - 1:37:47
Lebron picks up Alston who bounces the ball to Dwight. Dwight then bodies Ilgauskas for space only to be rejected by Lebron on the weakside. Very effective secondary paint-protection but that is outside the scope of what’s being counted.
(Lebron - 19 PPD)
Possession 40 - 1:38:42
Lebron turns the ball over and then races back for a chase down block. He comes short.
(Lebron - 10 PP)
Tally and Analysis
Paint-Protection - Lebron
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Perimeter Defense - Lebron
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During Lebron’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 10 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 2 and ineffective in 1. Lebron also was given 18 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 3. Additionally, Lebron was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Lebron averaged, 0.25 PPs, 0.05 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.45 PPDs, 0.15 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.
During his first 40 possessions of the 2007 Finals, I gave Lebron 5 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Lebron also was given 16 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 9 and ineffective in 3. Additionally Lebron was given 9 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Lebron averaged, 0.125 PPs, 0.075 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.4 PPDs, 0.225 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.225 IAs
For comparison here is how the other two players tracked with this system faired:
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Here’s how other players fared in terms of Paint-usage (only Duncan and Drob (1999 finals) had efficacy tracked)
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While it’s possible this stretch of basketball is just an outlier, without a dramatic dip in performance in the other 11 halves of basketball uncovered, Lebron playing “distinctively negative” defense seems like a tough sell, with the implication Lebron was a low-usage defender not aligning with what is currently on tape. Lebron looks like his team’s most relied-upon perimeter defender while simultaneously being one of their most relied upon paint-protectors: a safe top 3 and depending on interpretations maybe top 2. With what was physically observed and counted it looks like a much better showing in terms of both efficacy and usage than what I tracked for one Jason Kidd: inside and out. Kidd does have a reputation as having intangible impact as a defensive floor-general, but that is currently outside of the scope of these trackings.
A comparison with the 2007 outing isn’t as clear cut with Lebron grading out higher in paint and perimeter usage in 2009 but having more of those plays deemed “effective” in 2007. San Antonio also far more blatantly making a point of avoiding him (A record breaking 9 IAs vs 2). That said, I think I’d have to favor 2007 as more “productive” with Lebron having a much more difficult primary assignment, being a much bigger focus of San Antonio’s offense, and having a lower-ratio of “co-primary” to outright primary plays. Lebron’s 2 IAs here were both “weak”, while there were IAs for Lebron which were accrued during plays the Spurs reset their offense multiple times to avoid Parker vs Lebron. While I think the numbers correctly reflect that Lebron was used alot more as a paint-protector, it’s worth noting he didn’t outright stop anyone at the paint strong-side. In the 40 possessions tracked for 2007 Lebron, that occurred twice. I think 2009 Lebron is also a bigger benefactor of “shorter” or “ensemble” possessions where what is required to be considered a primary or co-primary is lower. That said, there are points in favor of the 2009 tape. For one, Lebron’s “ineffective” plays are less severe/excusable. There is no equivalent of the IPP Lebron racked in 2007 by just not bothering to jump to stop someone smaller on a fast break. The sole IPP Lebron racked up for the 2009 tracking would probably be an extremely high-value possession facing almost any other matchup. There were also two near-home runs for 2009 Lebron in his two failed chasedown blocks.
Moreover, despite me thinking 2007 Lebron was more “productive” defensively over the 40 possessions tracked, if I only had these 80 defensive possessions to go off, I would probably favor 2009 Lebron for a series. While I think 2007 Lebron did more facing the Spurs, I would expect 2009 Lebron to be capable of replicating what 2007 Lebron did to the Spurs guards on the perimeter while offering more in the paint and being less error-prone.
The 97 Hakeem comparison is largely philosophical with Hakeem clearly outdoing Lebron inside and the reverse being true outside, Hakeem did rack up more total primaries (PPs+PPDs).
As a paint-protector Lebron looks pretty good relative to other tracked wings. He’s not too far off the current record for PPs (15). Wonder if he would get closer to or hit those marks if we looked at teams more starved for paint-protection. I might look at Lebron’s usage on the 2016 Cavs or 2013 Heat down the line.
On deck is Jordan: Expanding the sample for assessing him as a rim-protector and looking at what he offers outside. I’m especially curious how many IAs he racks up. By reputation opposing offenses made a point of avoiding direct confrontation similar to what we saw 2007 Lebron. This system also has yet to be applied to a high-stock guard. I’m particularly curious how he looks in comparison to Kidd.
Miscellaneous
Differentiated between “weak”’ and “strong” IAs as promised though I’d want to see more examples of them being a high-volume phenomena (like with 2007 Lebron) before I commit to listing the two separately
If I do start making it an “official” thing here is what distinguishes strong and weak:
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Will probably want to give this a test-run at some point
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