Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #15-#16 Spots

[70sFan]

Welcome to the new iteration of the greatest peaks project with the new format! This time, we will rank the greatest 25 peaks of the last 25 seasons:

2000/01 - 2024/25.

Just to remind the rules:

1. Official ballots must include 4 different player seasons (name + year) with the (at least short) explanation for each of them. We will conclude the 2 best peaks in this thread based on the results of the voting, using Kemeny method.

2. The thread will be open for 7 days (up to August 31st), unless the longer period will be necessary. I am open to make it longer, but we have to make it through all the threads and all the eras.

3. The participation criteria are the following:

1. Account creation before August 2024.
2. At least 100 posts on RealGM forums.

Of course I recommend everyone who doesn't meet the criteria to contribute on these threads without voting, that would help us adding you in the later stages of the project.

Remember to pick the year for your choices and please, provide all the seasons worth the place IN ORDER - that would help us to conclude the year for a winning player.

The criteria are up to you, but you need to briefly explain it for the rest of the voting panel. It is good to take into account the data from surrounding seasons to evaluate players, but remember to pick a specific season.

Deadline: 12:00 am Wednesday 22nd October

Here is the voting panel:

Spoiler:

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If anyone wants to join in, please let me know.

The list:


#1. 2008/09 LeBron James
#2. 2002/03 Tim Duncan
#3. 2022/23 Nikola Jokic
#4. 2016/17 Stephen Curry
#5. 2000/01 Shaquille O'Neal
#6. 2003/04 Kevin Garnett
#7. 2020/21 Giannis Antetokumpo
#8. 2005/06 Dwyane Wade
#9. 2016/17 Kawhi Leonard
#10. 2024/25 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
#11. 2010/11 Dirk Nowitzki
#12. 2008/09 Kobe Bryant
#13. 2014/15 Chris Paul
#14. 2013/14 Kevin Durant

[DraymondGold]

Assuming we vote in Nash (who was 3rd in the last thread) next at #15, I think we'll end up having the right #1-6 and the right #7-15, though the exact order may differ and the uncertainty/criteria are wide enough that a few other players may creep into peoples' ballots above #15. I think this would also be the same 1-6 and 7-15 that Thinking Basketball selected for their list, although again in a different order. There hasn't been as much discussion of their project as I would have thought now that it's wrapped up, although there has been some.

Personally, I'll probably have Harden, Embiid, and AD coming in around 16-18. I expect TMac and Luka to start getting traction in a few threads (maybe starting next thread or the thread after) and Manu/Draymond are already getting traction now. I personally don't have Manu or Draymond above Harden or AD in my mean interpretation (or Healthy Embiid, though people may differ on whether that exists at all or how to evaluate him based on his health issues), but they seem like the most likely "upset candidates" to get in a tier that I might disagree with. Not saying I don't see the arguments -- I do, and definitely think they deserve to be in the top 25. We never got much of the Nash vs Dirk discussion I was hoping for. Given all the Manu discussion last thread, maybe we could get more Nash/Harden/Embiid/AD discussion this thread? Fingers crossed!

It's also been nice to see the voting has been relatively stable (15 in the last thread, vs 17 in the first) and the discussion has been fairly active. Often there's a clear dropoff in activity after we vote in the first guys (~GOAT candidates roughly) and after we vote in the first tier (~top 10/15 candidates roughly), but here we're still getting plenty of traction. Overall, a very well planned and run project 70sFan!

[babyjax13]

Apologies for dropping off, it has been midterms and I teach at a Community College, so I had 220 exams to grade, and then 220 essays it has been a busy several weeks between that and a conference!

I am returning to my original list of honorable mentions to starter:
Giannis, 2018-2023: 2 MVPs, 1 championship, BPM from +8.5 to +11.5, 5 year VORP of 32.4
Kobe, 2005-2010: 1 MVP, 1 MVP runner up, 2 championships, BPM from +4.1 to +7.6, 5 year VORP of 30.7
Dirk, 2006-2011: 1 MVP, 1 championship, BPM from +3.4 to +8.3, 5 year VORP of 26.8
Garnett, 2003-2008: 1 MVP, 1 championship, BPM from +5.4 to +10.2, 5 year VORP of 38.0
Durant, 2009-2014: 1 MVP, 3 MVP runner ups, 0 championships, BPM from +4.9 to +10.2, 5 year VORP of 38.3
Shaq, 1999-2004: 1 MVP, 3 championships, BPM from +4.8 to +9.3, 5 year VORP of 31.8
Harden, 2014-2019: 1 MVP, 3 MVP runner ups, 0 championships, BPM from +6.6 to +11.0, 5 year VORP of 39.1

Other honorable mentions: Nash, Wade, SGA, Paul, Kawhi, Westbrook, AD, Kidd, Pau, Embiid, Rose

Bolded are the players that are left, so if I look at the same criteria and rule out some guys that don't seem to quite compete (AD, Pau, Rose):
Harden, 2014-2019: 1 MVP, 3 MVP runner ups, 0 championships, BPM from +6.6 to +11.0, 5 year VORP of 39.1
Nash, 2003-2008: 2 MVPs, 1 MVP runner up, 0 championships, BPM from +2.5 to +5.9, 5 year VORP of 22.6
Westbrook, 2014-2019: 1 MVP, 0 MVP runner ups, 0 championships, BPM from +4.7 to +9.3, 5 year VORP of 32.7
Kidd, 2001-2006: 0 MVP, 1 MVP runner up, 0 championships, BPM from +4.5 to +6.6, 5 year VORP of 25.3
Embiid, 2018-2023: 1 MVP, 2 MVP runner ups, 0 championships, BPM from +4.9 to +9.2, 5 year VORP of 23.0

Players I neglected to compare that I will go through later:
Luka
Dwight
Draymond
Manu

Other names that seem to be on the edges based on these criteria: Rose, Pierce, Davis, Pau, McGrady, Manu, Butler, Lillard, Irving, Tatum

We also run into the issue that there seems to be a pretty dramatic increase in BPM and VORP in the post-2010 era, likely a product of systems that leverage the advantages of teams best players better, so I don't think the differences between these players are as large as these metrics make them appear to be.

But I feel like I need to deal with the era issue with Nash and Kidd, because from a subjective standpoint I would have both over Westbrook.

[lessthanjake]

Since 2005 Nash, 2005 Ginobili, and 2018 Harden were on my ballot last time and didn’t get voted in, they’ll make my ballot this time too. But I’m really unsure about the final spot. My first instinct is to go with 2020 Anthony Davis, but I’m pretty open to a lot of guys. Draymond, Dwight, McGrady, Luka, Butler, and Embiid are all ones I’d definitely be considering. I’m open to arguments for them, and honestly am pretty open to arguments for guys that are not them as well.

[f4p]

Assuming we vote in Nash (who was 3rd in the last thread) next at #15, I think we'll end up having the right #1-6 and the right #7-15, though the exact order may differ and the uncertainty/criteria are wide enough that a few other players may creep into peoples' ballots above #15. I think this would also be the same 1-6 and 7-15 that Thinking Basketball selected for their list,

hmm, so everyone thought way outside the box and just came up with the same list as Ben Taylor? that doesn't seem ideal.

[Jaivl]

Assuming we vote in Nash (who was 3rd in the last thread) next at #15, I think we'll end up having the right #1-6 and the right #7-15, though the exact order may differ and the uncertainty/criteria are wide enough that a few other players may creep into peoples' ballots above #15. I think this would also be the same 1-6 and 7-15 that Thinking Basketball selected for their list,

hmm, so everyone thought way outside the box and just came up with the same list as Ben Taylor? that doesn't seem ideal.

Haven't heard the latest chapters, but on the TD/KD/Jokic one he put Duncan as #6 and he's #2 here, so... I don't know, man.

[f4p]

maybe we could get more Nash/Harden/Embiid/AD discussion this thread? Fingers crossed!

i'd be curious for more nash discussion that isn't just team ORtg based. his inclusion over harden (and frankly others) when harden seems to beat him in anything that isn't influenced by playing with dirk/amare/channing frye at center is a bit perplexing. at least if we're going to reward manu/draymond for being 4 time champions but then just squeeze nash in right ahead of them before we get to the other people without rings. i mean if he was just crushing RAPM or playoff RAPM lists, but he isn't. but that was also how it went in the Top 100 when he was even over someone with 3 championships like dwyane wade (to not just make it about harden and to include someone who did a lot of winning). or even now when he beats out 2005 manu, even from someone whose criteria is heavily weighted toward being the best player on the champion and 2005 manu was the best player on the champion but they don't beat out 2005 nash.

[f4p]

Assuming we vote in Nash (who was 3rd in the last thread) next at #15, I think we'll end up having the right #1-6 and the right #7-15, though the exact order may differ and the uncertainty/criteria are wide enough that a few other players may creep into peoples' ballots above #15. I think this would also be the same 1-6 and 7-15 that Thinking Basketball selected for their list,

hmm, so everyone thought way outside the box and just came up with the same list as Ben Taylor? that doesn't seem ideal.

Haven't heard the latest chapters, but on the TD/KD/Jokic one he put Duncan as #6 and he's #2 here, so... I don't know, man.

duncan at 6 seems wild. i think this place loves duncan too much and even i have 2003 duncan as probably #2 or at worst #3 after 2001 shaq. it's just such a complete regular season and postseason domination backed up by excellent box score and impact numbers and a carry job of mostly role players. like 2017 steph over 2003 duncan just seems like starting with the answer you want and working backwards to determine the evidence that matters (which ben does a lot with steph). 2017 steph isn't dreaming of doing what 2003 duncan did while 2003 duncan is cruising to a title with the 2017 warriors.

[lessthanjake]

Assuming we vote in Nash (who was 3rd in the last thread) next at #15, I think we'll end up having the right #1-6 and the right #7-15, though the exact order may differ and the uncertainty/criteria are wide enough that a few other players may creep into peoples' ballots above #15. I think this would also be the same 1-6 and 7-15 that Thinking Basketball selected for their list,

hmm, so everyone thought way outside the box and just came up with the same list as Ben Taylor? that doesn't seem ideal.

Seems like the ordering of the lists are pretty different, no? For instance, this board’s list is far higher on Duncan, far lower on Kobe, far higher on SGA, meaningfully lower on Durant, meaningfully lower on Shaq, higher on Dirk, bit higher on Jokic, etc. Meanwhile, just in terms of the list of players voted in, the 14 players we have voted in are not the top 14 players on the Thinking Basketball list (Nash makes their top 14 and SGA doesn’t). And it seems pretty unlikely that we will come out of this thread with the same players voted in as Ben Taylor had in his top 16, because I don’t really see McGrady getting traction yet and he was #16 on the Thinking Basketball list. Also, since I know this is really what you’re talking about, it seems pretty likely to me that Harden will get voted in higher than he was in the Thinking Basketball list, since they had him below Luka and McGrady and he’s getting traction here already and they aren’t.

[lessthanjake]

maybe we could get more Nash/Harden/Embiid/AD discussion this thread? Fingers crossed!

i'd be curious for more nash discussion that isn't just team ORtg based. his inclusion over harden (and frankly others) when harden seems to beat him in anything that isn't influenced by playing with dirk/amare/channing frye at center is a bit perplexing. at least if we're going to reward manu/draymond for being 4 time champions but then just squeeze nash in right ahead of them before we get to the other people without rings. i mean if he was just crushing RAPM or playoff RAPM lists, but he isn't. but that was also how it went in the Top 100 when he was even over someone with 3 championships like dwyane wade (to not just make it about harden and to include someone who did a lot of winning). or even now when he beats out 2005 manu, even from someone whose criteria is heavily weighted toward being the best player on the champion and 2005 manu was the best player on the champion but they don't beat out 2005 nash.

So the bolded is clearly directed at me. But someone’s criteria being “heavily weighted” towards something doesn’t mean it’s the only factor (note: I voted long ago for 2004 Garnett despite him not being the best player on the champion). And, I’ve explained my thinking about Nash to you already multiple times. You don’t like it because you value what box metrics say about Nash more than I do, while I value what large-sample RAPM says about him more (and those two things say meaningfully different things about him). We’ve talked about that. And the other thing is that, as I’ve explained to you, my eye test is super high on Nash. And I have more trust in my eye test on him than I usually do about players because I watched more of Nash than I’ve watched of virtually any other player in NBA history. I think it goes without saying that someone’s eye test is a valid aspect of their criteria, and that it is very reasonable to put more weight on it the more you’ve watched a player.

[eminence]

Draymond Vs Tatum for the top spot, looking at Nash/Harden next, leaning Nash.

Not anyone else I'm too interested in putting over Harden, feels like a little tier gap after the above 4, probably will have Manu lead off the next tier though.

[lessthanjake]

Draymond Vs Tatum for the top spot, looking at Nash/Harden next, leaning Nash.

Not anyone else I'm too interested in putting over Harden, feels like a little tier gap after the above 4, probably will have Manu lead off the next tier though.

I’m curious for more explanation on Tatum. I’m a big fan of the greatness of a superstar player leading an all-time-great team. And 2024 Tatum does fit that criteria. But Tatum just…wasn’t particularly good in the 2024 playoffs. I guess looking back at it, it’s really just the Finals he was rough in, but he wasn’t efficient throughout the playoffs and the Finals feel abnormally important to assessing that playoff run since their other opponents had major injuries. I feel like I’d probably be higher on Tatum than most (since I really do value leading an all-time great team, as well as good long-term RAPM, which he also has), but I’m finding it hard to get there with him, given that I know I came out of the 2024 playoffs not feeling impressed by him.

[eminence]

Draymond Vs Tatum for the top spot, looking at Nash/Harden next, leaning Nash.

Not anyone else I'm too interested in putting over Harden, feels like a little tier gap after the above 4, probably will have Manu lead off the next tier though.

I’m curious for more explanation on Tatum. I’m a big fan of the greatness of a superstar player leading an all-time-great team. And 2024 Tatum does fit that criteria. But Tatum just…wasn’t particularly good in the 2024 playoffs. I guess looking back at it, it’s really just the Finals he was rough in, but he wasn’t efficient throughout the playoffs and the Finals feel abnormally important to assessing that playoff run since their other opponents had major injuries. I feel like I’d probably be higher on Tatum than most (since I really do value leading an all-time great team, as well as good long-term RAPM, which he also has), but I’m finding it hard to get there with him, given that I know I came out of the 2024 playoffs not feeling impressed by him.

The opposition was weak, which there is no real substitution for. Best I can say is they were winning the series prior to major injuries (obviously not Butler who was just out, but the Heat were an 8 seed because they'd been dinged up all season), won all their series quite easily, and were the easy RS #1.

Tatum's play individually - not his best, but I also don't see some great failure here. His scoring - not near his best (and his best is below plenty of players still on the board), certainly still necessary and positive impact for Boston. And his scoring is not that big of a part of his game/impact*, especially in the short term**. Everything else, pretty damn good (I'd lean collectively slightly above his average RS play). Not 100% impact Tatum, but it felt like we got 90%.

I think he was the highest impact player in every series they played, with the strongest argument against him being Derrick White in Round 1 - that level of individual shooting efficiency is very very impactful, if irreplicable.

*In the realm of 1/3?

**In the long term if his scoring struggled teams would defend him differently and his playmaking would suffer, but I didn't/don't see any real evidence of that during the playoff run.

[Djoker]

I've been doing a bit of a deep dive into some numbers and one of the names is Dwight Howard. His impact metrics are really underwhelming. I mean really really underwhelming... Look at his peak from 2009 to 2011.

2008: 44th in xRAPM, 37th in RAPTOR, 28th in DARKO
2009: 43rd in xRAPM, 10th in RAPTOR, 17th in DARKO
2010: 5th in xRAPM, 5th in RAPTOR, 10th in DARKO, 3rd in LEBRON
2011: 5th in xRAPM, 5th in RAPTOR, 11th in DARKO, 2nd in LEBRON
2012: 3rd in xRAPM, 19th in RAPTOR, 11th in DARKO, 7th in LEBRON

2008-2010 3-year RAPM: 7th (best stretch)
2009-2011 3-year RAPM: 11th
2010-2012 3-year RAPM: 11th

2008-2012 5-year RAPM: 10th (best stretch)

But the playoff plus-minus situation is even more bizarre. His teams are always better when he sits. Now, of course, playoffs are noisy but we are talking large samples of games... even if we look past his peak it is ongoing.

Over 89 playoff games from 2007-2016, his team is 3.6 points/100 better when he sits on the bench.



I went in thinking he'd be easily top 20 on my list but honestly I think he won't be. He might even be in danger of missing out on the top 25 right now. Honestly the eye test when I watch him too... He seems very overrated as an offensive player. Only effective within 5 feet of the rim. He has some gravity ala Shaq but he's nowhere nearly as powerful or skilled. His footwork is awkward and leads to a lot of charges and fumbles. And then you analyze his atrocious passing. Like legitimately he might be the worst passer of any player on this list. I remember people thought he had a great series in 2011 against the Hawks watching his box score. The man had 3 assists and 33 turnovers in that series. An assist to turnover ratio of 0.09... Most impact metrics have him in the 30-60 range on offense, as in sub all-star level. People look at those Orlando teams and think wow Dwight inside sucking in the defense then 3pt shooters outside. Except he is a horrid passer. That team worked better with Gortat when Dwight was sitting on the bench in a pretty decent playoff sample. Like I can't wrap my head around all this. I don't want this to be a Dwight hate post but really I'm very low on him right now. I didn't buy the Draymond hype before but I probably have him over Dwight at this point.

[jalengreen]

Yeah Tatum's scoring sucked in the Finals (his jumper was cooked the entire postseason iirc), but he broke down the Mavs defense really well off of the dribble, drawing a lot of doubles and forced rotations. On defense, his versatility helped them stop the Luka-Gafford/Lively PNR that the Mavs feasted on throughout the playoffs.

Never really been a fan of his shot selection and it was no different then, but it's a good sign when your star sustains impact while in a shooting slump.

[Cavsfansince84]

I've been doing a bit of a deep dive into some numbers and one of the names is Dwight Howard. His impact metrics are really underwhelming. I mean really really underwhelming... Look at his peak from 2009 to 2011.

2008: 44th in xRAPM, 37th in RAPTOR, 28th in DARKO
2009: 43rd in xRAPM, 10th in RAPTOR, 17th in DARKO
2010: 5th in xRAPM, 5th in RAPTOR, 10th in DARKO, 3rd in LEBRON
2011: 5th in xRAPM, 5th in RAPTOR, 11th in DARKO, 2nd in LEBRON
2012: 3rd in xRAPM, 19th in RAPTOR, 11th in DARKO, 7th in LEBRON

2008-2010 3-year RAPM: 7th (best stretch)
2009-2011 3-year RAPM: 11th
2010-2012 3-year RAPM: 11th

2008-2012 5-year RAPM: 10th (best stretch)

But the playoff plus-minus situation is even more bizarre. His teams are always better when he sits. Now, of course, playoffs are noisy but we are talking large samples of games... even if we look past his peak it is ongoing.

Over 89 playoff games from 2007-2016, his team is 3.6 points/100 better when he sits on the bench.



I went in thinking he'd be easily top 20 on my list but honestly I think he won't be. He might even be in danger of missing out on the top 25 right now. Honestly the eye test when I watch him too... He seems very overrated as an offensive player. Only effective within 5 feet of the rim. He has some gravity ala Shaq but he's nowhere nearly as powerful or skilled. His footwork is awkward and leads to a lot of charges and fumbles. And then you analyze his atrocious passing. Like legitimately he might be the worst passer of any player on this list. I remember people thought he had a great series in 2011 against the Hawks watching his box score. The man had 3 assists and 33 turnovers in that series. An assist to turnover ratio of 0.09... Most impact metrics have him in the 30-60 range on offense, as in sub all-star level. People look at those Orlando teams and think wow Dwight inside sucking in the defense then 3pt shooters outside. Except he is a horrid passer. That team worked better with Gortat when Dwight was sitting on the bench in a pretty decent playoff sample. Like I can't wrap my head around all this. I don't want this to be a Dwight hate post but really I'm very low on him right now. I didn't buy the Draymond hype before but I probably have him over Dwight at this point.

Ya Dwight to me is a guy who gets overrated a bit or a lot for both his actual prime/peak(which was very short) and his career. Having said that, I was still considering him for my ballot while doing general research on a few guys and his finals in 09 is part of why I won't consider him any time soon. He just sort of disappeared offensively in their biggest series. Dwight in general is too much of a headcase. So I don't think I'll seriously consider him until the very end of this period. Good mention with the negative on/offs though which isn't in itself a huge deal to me but it's another thing to consider with him.

[f4p]

Draymond Vs Tatum for the top spot, looking at Nash/Harden next, leaning Nash.

Not anyone else I'm too interested in putting over Harden, feels like a little tier gap after the above 4, probably will have Manu lead off the next tier though.

I’m curious for more explanation on Tatum. I’m a big fan of the greatness of a superstar player leading an all-time-great team. And 2024 Tatum does fit that criteria. But Tatum just…wasn’t particularly good in the 2024 playoffs. I guess looking back at it, it’s really just the Finals he was rough in, but he wasn’t efficient throughout the playoffs and the Finals feel abnormally important to assessing that playoff run since their other opponents had major injuries. I feel like I’d probably be higher on Tatum than most (since I really do value leading an all-time great team, as well as good long-term RAPM, which he also has), but I’m finding it hard to get there with him, given that I know I came out of the 2024 playoffs not feeling impressed by him.

The opposition was weak, which there is no real substitution for. Best I can say is they were winning the series prior to major injuries (obviously not Butler who was just out, but the Heat were an 8 seed because they'd been dinged up all season), won all their series quite easily, and were the easy RS #1.

Tatum's play individually - not his best, but I also don't see some great failure here. His scoring - not near his best (and his best is below plenty of players still on the board), certainly still necessary and positive impact for Boston. And his scoring is not that big of a part of his game/impact*, especially in the short term**. Everything else, pretty damn good (I'd lean collectively slightly above his average RS play). Not 100% impact Tatum, but it felt like we got 90%.

I think he was the highest impact player in every series they played, with the strongest argument against him being Derrick White in Round 1 - that level of individual shooting efficiency is very very impactful, if irreplicable.

*In the realm of 1/3?

**In the long term if his scoring struggled teams would defend him differently and his playmaking would suffer, but I didn't/don't see any real evidence of that during the playoff run.

I feel like the Celtics losing to an 8th seed the year before and then getting worked over by the Knicks the year after even when Tatum was healthy should probably color the 2024 Tatum evaluation. As well as the fact that his 2022 playoff stats are just straight up not good either. Like nothing about 2024 Tatum's play suggests that another upset wasn't in the offing if he wasn't on an all time stacked team against all time terrible opponents. Especially the horrendous TS%. He probably had more space to work with than any modern star thanks to the Celtics 3 point shooting (from essentially everyone on the roster) and somehow was at 55%, when he could basically afford to be as choosy as he wanted to be with the Celtics opponents being so weak. The one opponent who wasn't weak dropped him to 50 TS%.

[One_and_Done]

This will be Luka and Nash for me quite comfortably. I'll need to mull who goes 3 & 4 out of guys like Butler, AD, Harden, and T-Mac. Ant and Tatum should start being discussed more too, they were guys in that Kobe tier that should still be coming up.

[Owly]

I've been doing a bit of a deep dive into some numbers and one of the names is Dwight Howard. His impact metrics are really underwhelming. I mean really really underwhelming... Look at his peak from 2009 to 2011.

2008: 44th in xRAPM, 37th in RAPTOR, 28th in DARKO
2009: 43rd in xRAPM, 10th in RAPTOR, 17th in DARKO
2010: 5th in xRAPM, 5th in RAPTOR, 10th in DARKO, 3rd in LEBRON
2011: 5th in xRAPM, 5th in RAPTOR, 11th in DARKO, 2nd in LEBRON
2012: 3rd in xRAPM, 19th in RAPTOR, 11th in DARKO, 7th in LEBRON

2008-2010 3-year RAPM: 7th (best stretch)
2009-2011 3-year RAPM: 11th
2010-2012 3-year RAPM: 11th

2008-2012 5-year RAPM: 10th (best stretch)

But the playoff plus-minus situation is even more bizarre. His teams are always better when he sits. Now, of course, playoffs are noisy but we are talking large samples of games... even if we look past his peak it is ongoing.

Over 89 playoff games from 2007-2016, his team is 3.6 points/100 better when he sits on the bench.



I went in thinking he'd be easily top 20 on my list but honestly I think he won't be. He might even be in danger of missing out on the top 25 right now. Honestly the eye test when I watch him too... He seems very overrated as an offensive player. Only effective within 5 feet of the rim. He has some gravity ala Shaq but he's nowhere nearly as powerful or skilled. His footwork is awkward and leads to a lot of charges and fumbles. And then you analyze his atrocious passing. Like legitimately he might be the worst passer of any player on this list. I remember people thought he had a great series in 2011 against the Hawks watching his box score. The man had 3 assists and 33 turnovers in that series. An assist to turnover ratio of 0.09... Most impact metrics have him in the 30-60 range on offense, as in sub all-star level. People look at those Orlando teams and think wow Dwight inside sucking in the defense then 3pt shooters outside. Except he is a horrid passer. That team worked better with Gortat when Dwight was sitting on the bench in a pretty decent playoff sample. Like I can't wrap my head around all this. I don't want this to be a Dwight hate post but really I'm very low on him right now. I didn't buy the Draymond hype before but I probably have him over Dwight at this point.

Not super into what the latest version of XRAPM is (I know an early version ... my impression from others has been wasn't labelled to clearly, and was box-only), think I've heard this is kind of RPM-ish which ... I think was kind of an impact/box hybrid from memory (maybe XRAPM had become that before the ESPN, RPM thing) ...

Where I'm going is if it's box-side he's a non-passer ... I get the feeling some have felt regressed from RAPM box-aggregates were too mean on Moses ... maybe, maybe, waxing optimistic you can argue Dwight is kind of that sort of player offensively plus better defense? IDK

The one thing I'd say in mitigation on the playoff impact is ... you're mainly trying to get to a big window to get a reasonable sample ... and peak-adjacent Dwight isn't around for a long time. There's three standout box years 09-11 where maybe you can extend that out a year either side. And in the extended 5-year window the RS Magic are 8 to 9.4 points better with him on the court in the RS. In that window he's the on-off team leader thrice ('08, '10, '11) and otherwise near the top (behind half-season, career half-year Nelson and Lewis in '09; 2nd to but far behind Ryan Anderson in '12). And per your own stats he isn't "bad" in the bigger picture impact stuff in that window. So even if we're saying it's underwhelming (and ... mileage may vary ... Kobe's in with some - at least by some sources - underwhelming impact-side stuff) as an anchor ... he's actually a very good player.

So if playoffs only provide a short, unstable sample for impact side stuff and peak-ish Howard only exists for a brief window ... how much value is there in those numbers - how confident are we in signal versus noise in terms of evaluating him as a player (moreso than a season) if the boxscore is still there.

But if someone's making the case for him off a productive, team successful '09 run ... and the team success is a big deal ... this does really undermine that because the team success in that run is notably coming with him off the court (-0.3 on, +12.4 off). And yes Gortat is a really good backup but if the point is team success and you weren't actually around in the successful bits ... yeah that's going to hurt.

And ultimately with so many really good players I do think I'd be inclined to agree that he might have to wait a bit because even if he's not "bad" even on the RS stuff (box or impact) he's not blow you away spectacular, elite level (and the more you weight concerns about limitations in passing, non-shooting, the worse that box-profile looks) and whilst there are some mitigations, the playoff ... at least being absent evidence of impact ... has to hurt those valuing the deep runs and probably give some doubt to others.

[jalengreen]

I’m curious for more explanation on Tatum. I’m a big fan of the greatness of a superstar player leading an all-time-great team. And 2024 Tatum does fit that criteria. But Tatum just…wasn’t particularly good in the 2024 playoffs. I guess looking back at it, it’s really just the Finals he was rough in, but he wasn’t efficient throughout the playoffs and the Finals feel abnormally important to assessing that playoff run since their other opponents had major injuries. I feel like I’d probably be higher on Tatum than most (since I really do value leading an all-time great team, as well as good long-term RAPM, which he also has), but I’m finding it hard to get there with him, given that I know I came out of the 2024 playoffs not feeling impressed by him.

The opposition was weak, which there is no real substitution for. Best I can say is they were winning the series prior to major injuries (obviously not Butler who was just out, but the Heat were an 8 seed because they'd been dinged up all season), won all their series quite easily, and were the easy RS #1.

Tatum's play individually - not his best, but I also don't see some great failure here. His scoring - not near his best (and his best is below plenty of players still on the board), certainly still necessary and positive impact for Boston. And his scoring is not that big of a part of his game/impact*, especially in the short term**. Everything else, pretty damn good (I'd lean collectively slightly above his average RS play). Not 100% impact Tatum, but it felt like we got 90%.

I think he was the highest impact player in every series they played, with the strongest argument against him being Derrick White in Round 1 - that level of individual shooting efficiency is very very impactful, if irreplicable.

*In the realm of 1/3?

**In the long term if his scoring struggled teams would defend him differently and his playmaking would suffer, but I didn't/don't see any real evidence of that during the playoff run.

I feel like the Celtics losing to an 8th seed the year before and then getting worked over by the Knicks the year after even when Tatum was healthy should probably color the 2024 Tatum evaluation. As well as the fact that his 2022 playoff stats are just straight up not good either. Like nothing about 2024 Tatum's play suggests that another upset wasn't in the offing if he wasn't on an all time stacked team against all time terrible opponents. Especially the horrendous TS%. He probably had more space to work with than any modern star thanks to the Celtics 3 point shooting (from essentially everyone on the roster) and somehow was at 55%, when he could basically afford to be as choosy as he wanted to be with the Celtics opponents being so weak. The one opponent who wasn't weak dropped him to 50 TS%.

Tatum was not healthy for all four losses in either of the Boston's 2023 or 2025 postseason exits btw. Got hurt on the literal first play of G7 against the Heat in 2023 and was clearly severely hobbled the rest of the way, and tore his Achilles against the Knicks when they were down 9 with 3 minutes to go in Game 4, ultimately putting them down 3-1.

Anyway he certainly could afford to be as choosy as he wanted to, but worth noting that he really wasn't. His efficiency drop wasn't in the context of a player who becomes choosy and *still* loses his efficiency. He maintained the same volume as usual. The jumpers just weren't falling (his finishing at the rim was still strong - 0.741 in the 2024 reg ssn, 0.739 in the playoffs). Fair to knock him for not being choosy, I never liked his shot selection, but we're not talking about flawless peaks at this point anyway