Now, the voting:
I have a very serious issue with Jokic vs Shaq (two clear options in my ballot for top 2). I tracked significant number of games for both players and I am well aware of their limitations.
First of all, I think the logical conclusion is that Jokic is a significantly better offensive player. On one hand, you have the GOAT passing center with elite outside game and probably the best touch in the paint among all volume scorers in the league history. The guy has no clear weaknesses and is absurdly good at what he's doing.
I analyzed Jokic's 2023 and 2024 postseason games (31 - without one game from 2024 Lakers series, apologies but couldn't find it) in terms of his individual scoring game. He's just insane as a P&R player, he could do basically everything in two-man game - play as a roll-man, P&P partner, hand-off wizard and even as a ball-handler. His unbelievable floater made him a threat on a catch even in this below-FT-line range where most bigs are useless:
Of course he was more than cabale to perform more advanced moves from that position:
Taking all P&R screening possessions into consideration, my sample shows him finishing his shots at ridiculous 62 FG% and this number includes 3P shots and midrange pops as well, just insane efficiency for a screener that doesn't play rim running alley-oop finisher role.
Of course, the main problem with Jokic rolling to the basket is his creation ability, as he can find any way to beat your from that position:
Jokic is also very underrated as a slasher, because most people don't associate slashing with his slow, methodical game. My sample shows Jokic with around 3 FGA on drives, finishing them at 57 FG% - which is excellent for a bigman playing in the postseason. I mean, you can't stop 6'11 270 lbs guy with such a light footwork:
Even in all these little things, Joker's abilities are very valuable. Jokic is a good offensive rebounder, although his finishing ability on putbacks is a little lower than I thought - I have him at 2.4 FGA on ~55 FG% which is good, but not amazing. He's amazing in transition, getting around 0.9 FGA on basically 90 FG%. Having a bigman that can run the break like a guard is a very rare advantage even in today's league:
I was a little surprised in terms of his ISO post game abilities. My data shows him at 4.9 FGA on 51 FG%, which is excellent but actually quite far from GOAT level. Again, sample is small and he faced some elite defensive bigs during this 2 years stretch, but still - 51% is not incredible in terms of historical abilities.
Interestingly, Jokic took more shots from the right block (as a right-handed player, it's quite unusual) - around 64% of his post shots comes from the right side. His two go-to moves there are short fadeaway to the middle (13/21 sampled shots):
or he countered that with baseline hook (12/21):
Interestingly, Jokic took 10 left handed hooks to the middle in my sample and he only made 3 of them. It could be a relative weakness in his game, as he rarely uses his off-hand.
On the left block, he usually went with a typical right handed jumphook to the middle (9/19).
There are two problems with Jokic that forced me to push him outside top 2:
1. Scoring regression in postseason
2. Inside defense
I think we all know the 2nd concern...
Spoiler:
I want to take a closer look to the 1st point though.
A lot of people view Jokic as a playoff raiser, but the last 2 seasons made me question that. Let's take a look at the very basic boxscore stats:
2022-25 Jokic in RS: 28.1 pp75 on +9.1 rTS%, 2.74 AST/TOV ratio, 9.1 ORB%, +3.5 rORtg
2022-25 Jokic in PS: 27.3 pp75 on +5.2 rTS%, 2.31 AST/TOV ratio, 9.2 ORB%, +3.0 rORtg
The drop isn't drastic, but it is noticeable. It is especially important when you take a closer look at how Jokic did against top 5 defenses in the league:
2022 vs GSW: 33.8 pp75 on +8.9 rTS%, 1.21 AST/TOV ratio, 11.6 ORB%, +8.0 rORtg
2024 vs MIN: 28.7 pp75 on +3.9 rTS%,2.29 AST/TOV ratio, 9.0 ORB%, -4.4 rORtg
2024 vs LAC and OKC: 24.7 pp75 on +2.3 rTS%, 2.03 AST/TOV ratio, 5.7 ORB%, +1.2 rORtg
This is not a massive sample of size, but it's 4 series nonetheless and outside of the 2022 GSW series (which was very uncompetitive), Jokic struggled a lot in the rest of the series both from individual and team perspective. His ridiculous efficiency is gone, he's more turnover prone and his team doesn't end up with great results. Of course it's hard to really blame Jokic here, as he doesn't have top tier supporting cast, but we are still nitpicking at this level.
On the other side of the spectrum, we have Shaq who usually dominated great defensive teams:
2003 Shaq in RS: 30.5 pp75 on +6.9 rTS%, 1.16 AST/TOV ratio, 11.5 ORB%, +4.6 rORtg
2001 vs SAS: 27.8 pp75 on +6.6 rTS%, 0.71 AST/TOV ratio, 11.3 ORB%, +17.6 rORtg
2001 vs PHI: 29.0 pp75 on +7.0 rTS%, 1.20 AST/TOV ratio, 15.7 ORB%, +10.6 rORtg
2002 vs SAS: 23.0 pp75 on -1.0 rTS%, 1.07 AST/TOV ratio, 9.0 ORB%, +4.0 rORtg
2002 vs NJN: 35.0pp75 on +12.5 rTS%, 1.07 AST/TOV ratio, 11.4 ORB%, +17.4 rORtg
2003 vs SAS: 26.5 pp75 on +10.2 rTS%, 1.05 AST/TOV ratio, 16.7 ORB%, +2.9 rORtg
Yeah, he had a very rough series against the Spurs in 2002, but other than that he looked fantastic. Some of these numbers are hard to believe in.
Taking that into account and reading all the writeups in this thread, I decided to push 2001 Shaq ahead of Jokic on my list just barely ahead of Jokic. I just trust his postseason dominance a little bit more. I have plenty of concerns with Shaq's defense, but I can't deny that he was the key part of two successful defenses in his career (2001 and 2002, NOT 2000). Interestingly, Jokic teams were also quite decent in the last 3 postseasons, but not on 2000-02 Lakers level.
The last two spots goes to KG and Curry. I don't have enough time to go in details of my KG preference, but I will just say quickly that Steph simply doesn't have as good RS + PS season as 2004 Garnett and it's not an outlier season for KG, as I view 2003 as basically the same for him. I do think that Steph with a healthy 2016 run would be probably higher than Garnett.
1. 2000/01 Shaquille O'Neal
2. 2023/24 Nikola Jokic (HM: 2022/23)
3. 2003/04 Kevin Garnett (HM: 2002/03)
4. 2016/17 Stephen Curry (HM: 2015/16, 2014/15, 2021/22)
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/55097805/692371530.0.jpg)
