Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 (LSU)

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Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 (LSU) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:05 pm

How it works
Simple ballot system: 3 votes/ballots [3-2-1 point system]. The "source" with the most points will take the spot.

It looks like interest in this project is limited, so I'm not going to have a designated time-limit for each place [though I don't want to leave each open for 4-5 days]; we'll probably aim for something in the neighborhood of 48 hours each, but we'll see.
This may be one of those projects that fizzles out quick due to lack of interest, but I'm hoping at least 2-3 people will come along with me for it.
There will be no approval of participants; anyone can pop in at any time to vote/contribute, even on a sporadic or part-time basis. No "arguments" will be required to accompany votes, though a list of notable players from each source being voted for is encouraged.....this will help jog memories, as well as stimulate conversation (and may help clarify the "source" in some rare cases where it is ambiguous). Hopefully we'll pick up some participants along the way.

How you want to consider those universities/sources (in terms of considerations of total players vs quality of players, etc) is entirely up to you [though others may wish to debate your selection criteria].

I'm hoping to make it out to around the top 20 [or so] "sources" of all-time for pro [NBA/ABA/BAA/NBL] players, but we'll see.


The "Talent Sources"
We are going to include non-university sources, as to do otherwise just leaves too many relevant players on the table.
Besides, it occurred to me that when scrutinizing the resulting list, one can just mentally exclude the non-university sources [I'll even colour-code those differently to make it easier], and what's left is an ordered list of the universities (as well as an ordered list of other sources)......two birds, right?
The source can be of the following three types:

a) (an American) University/College - if they played even one year at the university, that will be designated the default "source" of that pro player. If a player played at multiple universities, you can mentally factor that in to consideration for ALL universities played at, give preference to the university he had his BEST years at, or to the university he played LONGER at.....whatever; up to you.

b) a Non-USA Country (if not subject to "a" above) - This one is only to be considered a potential source IF they did not attend an American university. Examples would be guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, or Nikola Jokic.......their country of origin is considered the "source".
Someone like Hakeem Olajuwon, otoh, would be considered from the University of Houston [and not Nigeria].

In the event of using this designation, we may have individuals where consensus on just WHERE a player is "from" is debatable. Tony Parker is a good example: born in Belgium to an American father and Dutch mother, but raised in France (confusing already, right?). But most of us consider Tony from France [he played for their national team, too], as that's where he grew up.

And to me, that's what it's more about: where they grew up (rather than where they were born (or the nationality of his parents)). There may end up being a player for whom the "source" country is ambiguous and debatable; but we'll cross that bridge as we come to it (and again: that's why it's good to give at least a partial list of WHO you have in mind when placing a vote, so we can debate things like this as needed).

c) an American Highschool Zone - Self-explanatory: this is for American players who did NOT have a college career, but rather went straight to pro.
Having just "USA" as a single source for all American players who did NOT attend a university is just too great a source......it ends up blowing away all the competition at this point (we've just seen too many great players out of highschool now, it holds too much of a sample-size advantage over any American university).
So I've opted to break it up into three zones, which are as follows....

The East Coast Zone - This includes all states that actually make up part of America's eastern coastline [including Washington D.C. simply because it basically resides within Maryland]. That is: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticutt. Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland [including D.C.], Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

The East-Central Zone - This includes the states west of our "East Coast Zone", but east of [or inclusive of, in one case] the Missouri River. That is: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Missouri.

The Western Zone - All the states that are left: Texas, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii.


That's 14 states in the East Coast Zone, 16 in the East-Central Zone, and 20 in the Western Zone.
If you want to know why I broke them up in this manner, I wanted zones that had some geographical rhyme or reason, but also zones that had similar overall population.....
The East Coast Zone has a population of just over 108 million by recent census.
The East-Central Zone has just under 102 million.
The Western Zone has just over 119 million.

So the Western Zone has the largest population, BUT that's only by recent census. If we jumped back 60-70 years ago, that was not at all the case. Nearer the start of BAA/NBA history, the Western Zone would have been the LEAST populous zone. The population of states like California, Arizona, Nevada, and even Texas have really taken off in more modern eras.
Basketball also started out East, and spread west more gradually. So I intentionally made it the largest zone [today] to compensate somewhat for that consideration, while still having some manner of geographical demarkation to go with.

Gimme' your top 3 picks [in order] for the #14 spot.....

1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. East Coast Zone (highschool)
6. Duke
7. Georgetown
8. East-Central Zone (highschool)
9. Michigan State
10. Wake Forest
11. Houston
12. Ohio State
13. Indiana

Spoiler:
Doctor MJ wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

jalengreen wrote:.

falcolombardi wrote:.

Colbini wrote:.

giordunk wrote:.
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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:07 pm

Boy....
Big 10 represent! (recently, anyway)

Taken 9th, 12th, and 13th; Michigan has to figure in pretty soon, too.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:09 pm

Total WS
Arizona - 974.3
Michigan - 897.7
UCONN - 828.9
Georgia Tech - 797.7
Notre Dame - 769.0
Texas - 746.6
Illinois - 695.9
Marquette - 671.9
LSU - 670.1
Spain - 537.9
France - 396.7
Western Zone - 317.8
Serbia - 275.9

Total Players (Mean WS)
Arizona - 62 (15.7)
Michigan - 62 (14.5)
Notre Dame - 60 (12.8)
LSU - 50 (13.4)
Illinois - 46 (15.1)
Marquette - 43 (15.6)
Georgia Tech - 41 (19.5)
UCONN - 39 (21.3)
Texas - 37 (20.2)
Spain - 28 (19.21)
Serbia - 24 (11.5)
France - 21 (18.89)
Western Zone - 9 identified so far (35.31)

Score [the one I'd previously shared]
Arizona - 414.89
Michigan - 360.12
UCONN - 359.22
LSU - 336.28
Notre Dame - 333.52
Georgia Tech - 326.66
Illinois - 324.78
Texas - 318.60
Marquette - 311.79
Spain - 237.13
France - 206.80
Western Zone - 155.11
Serbia - 154.86

All-Star Selections
LSU - 36
Marquette - 30
Texas - 27
Illinois - 24 (6 were ABA All-Stars [also a few from early 1950's; but otoh Illinois also claims Derek Harper, Eddie Johnson, Nick Anderson, and Kendall Gill.......who were all dubiously snubbed their entire careers)
UCONN - 22
Michigan - 18
Georgia Tech - 18
Notre Dame - 15
Spain - 11
France - 9
Arizona - 6 (although note they have Mike Bibby, Richard Jefferson, Jason Terry, and DeAndre Ayton......all of whom have had at least 1 or 2 All-Star level seasons, even if they weren't recognized; Iggy only got one, too)
Serbia - 5
Western Zone - 3

MVP's
LSU - 3
Serbia - 2
Texas - 1
Michigan/Arizona/UCONN/Georgia Tech/Notre Dame/Spain/Western Zone/Illinois/Marquette/France - 0 each


Regarding Spain's figures:

Doncic was obviously already a very promising young player from a very young age growing up in Slovenia. But then he largely played in Spain from the age of 13 onward before entering the NBA. So I'm "crediting" Spain with all except his rookie season.

Serge Ibaka grew up in the Republic of Congo, and was a promising national prospect by age 16-17. They moved when he was 17, and he then played two seasons in Spain [one in a sort of junior semi-pro league, one in an actual pro league]. So I'm crediting Spain with a chunk of his early career, including what might be the bulk of his prime: '10-'16 [seven seasons, all his time in OKC].

EDIT: Edited Spain's numbers to reflect at least partial careers of multiple players born in other countries, but who played SOME in pro league of Spain prior to NBA.


Regarding France's numbers [newly added this thread]:
31 players are listed as born in France on bbref......but on closer exam you find several grew up in America and went to American universities. A few others grew up in France, but then attended American universities, most showing dramatic improvement while in that NCAA program. The one exception is Yakhouba Diawara, who entered Pepperdine in his early 20's, playing two seasons there [without showing notable improvement, by the numbers]; so I've credited the second half only of his meager NBA career to France.
Plus there's Tony Parker---who's not listed among those 31 because he was born in Belgium, but we know he's a product of France.

btw, found one more player to be credited to the East Coast Zone: William Howard. Born in France, but grew up in Maryland, came to NBA out of highschool. Played just 2 games in his NBA career. :-?

France is interesting: some nice talent at the top in Tony Parker and Rudy Gobert, followed up with Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, Evan Fournier (plus Ian Mahinmi and Alexis Ajinca). But it fairly well falls off a cliff after that. Their weighted avg WS is pretty strong (49.79), and their mean is decent as you can see above. The median WS is just 2.4, though, as there are 10 players with basically non-existent careers ranging from -0.5 to 1.1 WS.


Among foreign country sources, Spain still looks like the top candidate (unless putting huge stock in Jokic and his two MVP's).
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#4 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:26 pm

giordunk wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
giordunk wrote:We're not in Spain/Serbia territory yet?


Not yet imo until we get past marquette/indiana/LSU/texas/maybe arizona

This is my comparision from the last thread to give you a idea about spain (imo the strongest foreign country pick)

total of nba players: 62 ( High)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 2 ( low) (Iguodala, arenas)

Borderline stars 4 (mid): ayton(really short career handicap), richard jefferson, terry, bibby

Total win shares:974(high)

Vs

lousiana

total of nba players: 47 ( mid)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (shaq, petit)

notable all star careers: 2 ( low) (shaq, petit)

Borderline stars 3 (mid): simmons*(longevity)abdul rauf(?), maravich(?)

Total win shares: 670 (mid)

Vs

Ohio

total of nba players: 48 ( mid)

mvp level players: 1 (mid) (havlicek)

notable all star careers: 3 ( mid) (Havlicec, lucas, neil johnston,redd)

Borderline stars 2 (low): derek anderson(?) arnie risen

Total win shares: 965 (high)


Vs

Indiana

total of nba players: 77 ( high)

mvp level players: 1? (Mid) (isiah thomas)

notable all star careers: 4 (mid) (thomas, walt bellamy, tom van arsdale(?), george mcginnis)

Borderline stars 4 (mid): dick van arsdale, eric gordon oladipo, anunoby

Total win shares: 950 (high)

Vs

Marquette

total of nba players: 41 ( mid)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (wade, butler?)

notable all star careers: 4 ( mid) (wade, butler, maurice lucas?)

Borderline stars 1 (low): doc rivers?

Total win shares: 670 (mid)

Vs

Spain

total of nba players: 20( low)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star careers: 3 ( mid) (pau, marc, luka)

Borderline stars 2 (low): rubio?, ibaka?

Total win shares: 400 (low)

?


All Spanish/ACB

I'm sure Spain + ACB has more than 20? (I'm just listing random names as well based on Wikipedia dive for ACB players - not saying all these players are relevant, but the college numbers are quite inflated as well)

Using either the criteria that they are Spanish, or the last team the played for before joining the NBA was an ACB team

Gasol
Gasol
Rubio
Doncic
Sergio Rodriguez
Ibaka
Luis Scola
Rudy Fernandez
Mirotic
Maciej Lampe
Usman Garuba
Stanley Roberts
Raul Lopez
Mickael Gelabale
Alex Abrines
Jorge Garbajosa
Tiago Splitter
Salah Mejri
Anderson Varejao
Mario Hezonja
Rodions Kurucs
Leandro Bolmaro
Juancho Hernangomez
Willie Hernangomez
Victor Claver
Santi Aldama
Andres Nocioni
Pablo Prigioni
Marcelo Huertas
Mirza Teletovic
Tomas Satoransky
Gustavo Ayon
Facundo Campazzo
Walter Tavares
Arvydas Sabonis
Walter Herrmann

I guess you can make the argument that some of these guys were already playing pros before they were in the NBA (like Luis Scola) but the thread says pro talent so there's no reason why ACB shouldn't be included (especially if it seems like the BAA and NBL are included in the OP) and if you're including ACB as a pro league then the entire Spain/Serbia (or ex Yugo countries) should completely wipe out all but the most elite American universities.

I also think depending on how you want to count Yugoslavia, or ex-Yugoslavia countries (don't see why we don't call it ex-Yugoslavia if you can lump Ohio and Philadelphia in the same high school zone) then Sabonis, Jokic, Doncic, Petrovic, Divac, Stojakovic, Radja Kukoc wipe out the IU all-time team.


What do you guys think aboyt giordunk points about acb and yugoslavia?
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#5 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:42 pm

giordunk wrote:.

falcolombardi wrote:What do you guys think aboyt giordunk points about acb and yugoslavia?



Thank you for the heads up giordunk. I'd have missed some of those guys. Many of them [born in Spain] I did not credit intentionally, because they often moved to America [or sporadically elsewhere] and were largely raised there, often attending American universities too.

But I'd missed numerous players (mostly born in Argentina) who spent substantial time in Spanish pro leagues before entering the NBA. As such I've added 11 players (*only partial careers for them unless otherwise indicated, as mentoring would have occurred in multiple nations) to Spain's numbers:

Nikola Mirotic
Andres Nocioni
Pablo Prigioni
Luis Scola
*Tiago Splitter (crediting his full career to Spain)
*Tomas Satoransky (crediting full career to Spain)
Anderson Varejao
Stanley Roberts
Mirza Teletovic
Facundo Campazzo
Salah Mejri

I just ignored Maciej Lampe, as his career would need to be split between at least two places, and it's an insignificant -0.2 WS career. For all others listed I had already rendered a judgment I was satisfied with.

The changes bring Spain's total players to 28, and bumps their total WS up a fair bit (edited post #3 above). Doesn't necessarily move their rank much among the sources I'd listed.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#6 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:50 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
giordunk wrote:.

falcolombardi wrote:What do you guys think aboyt giordunk points about acb and yugoslavia?



Thank you for the heads up giordunk. I'd have missed some of those guys. Many of them [born in Spain] I did not credit intentionally, because they often moved to America [or sporadically elsewhere] and were largely raised there, often attending American universities too.

But I'd missed numerous players (mostly born in Argentina) who spent substantial time in Spanish pro leagues before entering the NBA. As such I've added 11 players (*only partial careers for them unless otherwise indicated, as mentoring would have occurred in multiple nations) to Spain's numbers:

Nikola Mirotic
Andres Nocioni
Pablo Prigioni
Luis Scola
*Tiago Splitter (crediting his full career to Spain)
*Tomas Satoransky (crediting full career to Spain)
Anderson Varejao
Stanley Roberts
Mirza Teletovic
Facundo Campazzo
Salah Mejri

I just ignored Maciej Lampe, as his career would need to be split between at least two places, and it's an insignificant -0.2 WS career. For all others listed I had already rendered a judgment I was satisfied with.

The changes bring Spain's total players to 28, and bumps their total WS up a fair bit (edited post #3 above). Doesn't necessarily move their rank much among the sources I'd listed.


If we are dividing credit that way shouldnt we give high school zones credit for players who went to a college? At least the one and done guys?

Seems like if we want to be consistent we should either

A) Give highschool zones partial credit for one and done guys

B) Give the last pre nba place (acb, italian league, etc) all the credit
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#7 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:19 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
If we are dividing credit that way shouldnt we give high school zones credit for players who went to a college? At least the one and done guys?

Seems like if we want to be consistent we should either

A) Give highschool zones partial credit for one and done guys

B) Give the last pre nba place (acb, italian league, etc) all the credit


You're free to do either. For myself, I'm going to make small mental adjustments [from the numbers I've posted] for some universities, countries, etc; but I don't have the inclination to figure all the numbers to each highschool zone, etc, in the manner you're suggesting. It would just take too much time/work. I cut corners in the manner I've previously indicated; it does get quite tedious otherwise.

But if you want to within your own calculations and considerations, by all means.

Such accounting would give a huge advantage to the highschool zone: basically every NCAA player [of dozens [or hundreds] of universities] came from one of those THREE zones. If we give partial credit for nearly every NBA player that's played to one of the just THREE zones, there's a good chance they'd be #1, 2, and 3, respectively.

I recognize that the way I've done it curves things against foreign countries [relative to universities] somewhat; again, I'll maybe try to make a mental adjustment.

fwiw, even if I gave Spain FULL credit for the careers of guys like Anderson Varejao, Mirza Teletovic, etc......it doesn't make them the favourite [by the numbers]. It does make them more competitive against some of the lower tier candidates, though.

I think the favourite at this stage is still someone among the Arizona, LSU, Michigan, UCONN, [other?] group.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#8 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:48 pm

Another formulation ("score") utilizing WS and total player data; places a bit more weight on "top heavy" sources, in particular sources with big weighted avg WS.
Will include (in parentheses) the last three that have been voted in, just for comparison:

"New Score"
Arizona - 973.56
(Ohio State - 921.77)
(Indiana - 899.59)
Michigan - 866.14
(Houston - 853.09)
UCONN - 847.51
Notre Dame - 804.90
LSU - 793.36
Georgia Tech - 782.18
***Louisiana Tech - 780.32 (haven't included this source yet, but just putting it out there)
Illinois - 771.91
Texas - 762.18
***St. John's - 758.68 (another that I haven't previously included)
Marquette - 744.02
Spain - 587.14
France - 518.26
Serbia - 404.16
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#9 » by jalengreen » Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:50 am

Ballot last time around was 1. LSU 2. Indiana 3. Texas. I'm sticking with LSU at the top and remain high on Texas at this stage so I'm strongly considering them at #2.

There are multiple schools to consider at #3. Arizona, UConn, Marquette, maybe USC or Michigan as longer shots, I don't know. I'll tentatively go with 1. LSU 2. Texas 3. Arizona but I'm still considering a change at that #3 spot. Perhaps I should be giving more attention to the international sources here as well?
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#10 » by falcolombardi » Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:26 am

I may ve a bit too busy tomorrow and have not made my mind yet

If i am late for voting my temptative picks are 1-LSU, 2-Texas, 3-Marquette

Will post reasoning later
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:22 pm

OK, I'll throw in my tentative picks; switching the order just slightly from the last thread.
I am, as per discussion we've had previously, hedging toward the sources with good depth of quality.....

1. Arizona
2. Michigan
3. UCONN


Top HM: LSU.

I'd had UCONN ahead of Michigan last round, but I've reconsidered (for the time being). I looked at the top half-dozen players from EACH source, and I like UCONN's top six marginally better, mostly because I think more of Ray Allen's career than Chris Webber's.

For transparency, I designated the "top six" from UCONN as Ray Ray, Rip Hamilton, Clifford Robinson, Caron Butler, Rudy Gay, Kemba Walker.
From Michigan, I thought it was probably CWebb, Glen Rice, Rudy T, Juwan Howard, Jamal Crawford, and Jalen Rose.

But then I like Michigan's extended depth more. UCONN's really only got 5-6 more somewhat relevant players, and then we're into a bunch of replacement level guys, etc.
Michigan still has Cazzie Russell, Campy Russell, Ricky Green, Terry Mills, Tim Hardaway Jr, Jordan Poole, Duncan Robinson, Loy Vaught, Roy Tarpley, Caris LeVert, Gary Grant, etc. So I've opted to switch them.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #14 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:47 pm

Scores as of now:

LSU - 6 pts
Texas - 4 pts
Arizona - 4 pts
Michigan - 2 pts
Marquette - 1 pt
UCONN - 1 pt
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