Offseason Plan

[NatP4]

Jalen Smith looks like an absolute steal. Wonder if he would have interest in coming back to his hometown area. One peak at the on/off numbers shows that he was ranked 2nd on the pacers. Specifically had a huge impact defensively.

I would probably throw 6 million per at him. Becoming a total stud and would be a great fit at the 4 for us. Shot the lights out from 3pt range in Indy. 37% on 5.5 attempts per36.

I’m not sure how S&Ts work, but could we offer Rui to Indy in exchange for signing Smith to a multi year deal? Or just figure out a way to sign him outright without giving up Rui

Sign Jalen Smith somehow
Sign Tyus Jones with the full MLE
Sign Dunn to a minimum contract.
Figure out how to send Kuzma and/or Pope elsewhere in exchange for dead cap+2023 1st round pick. Maybe Portland for Bledsoe?

[Menace2Sobriety]

Jalen Smith is an UFA w/out bird rights I believe. PHX declined to pick it up before trading him to Indy. Indy also doesn’t have the cap space to resign him outright before ~$5M or something.

[nate33]

I remember advocating for a Dunn signing after the 2019-2020 season. He averaged 10.6 points 5.3 rebounds 4.9 assists 2.9 steals with only 1.9 turnovers on 51% TS. That was while playing about 25 minutes a game and over 1200 minutes on the year. Raptor had him at a +2.5, good for the 18th ranked player in the East. I peaked at the on/off numbers for the Bulls that year and it looks like he actually ranked 1st overall on the team for guys that played atleast 1000 minutes. Everyone knows he atleast brings elite defense. Seems like the shooting eventually comes around with those guys later in their careers, and they become actual two way players. Still just turned 28.

Again, no idea what has happened in the last couple of years, haven’t followed, but before that, he was seemingly becoming a really good player. You could do a lot worse for a vet min 3rd string guard.

Yeah, he looked like a useful role player by his 4th season in Chicago, although poor-shooting guards can sometimes make an offense totally unworkable.

He went to Atlanta and flamed out there. They had good depth at guard with Trey, Bodganovic, Huerter, Lou Williams, and Rondo, so Dunn never played. That summer, he was traded to Memphis as salary filler and Memphis promptly cut him. He did nothing most of last year until Portland picked him up in March. He posted respectable numbers in Portland, but it was straight up, non-stop, wall-to-wall garbage time as Portland shamelessly tanked for the rest of the year. I don't think the numbers have any meaning. Portland went 1-15 over their final 16 games losing by an average margin of 20. (They were 1-13 in games involving Dunn).

[NatP4]

Right, so maybe we look at him as a MLE/partial MLE candidate+the appeal of bringing him back to the DC area.

Look to move Kuzma in a deal for a guard instead of signing Tyus Jones to the MLE, but I love Jones. Maybe Memphis would do a S&T for Jones?

Home run scenario is somehow getting both Tyus+Jalen Smith and moving Kuzma.

[80sballboy]

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[FAH1223]

Wizards talk here starts at 35 minutes or so

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Main points according to Jake

- Beal is going to get paid. Him declining his option tells you that's happening. If he wants to request a trade, he can later. But all signs point to him returning. If he really wants to leave to a contending situation, he'd opt in and get a trade. Jake is going to make more calls on it this coming week.

- The veteran PG: They like Johnny Davis but he will not be playing PG and Brad isn't going to be starting PG. Tyus Jones buzz is real. Malcom Brogdon talk is a possibility and that the Wizards were never going to use their lotto pick to get him. They were never going to pay a lot to get him. Kuzma and KCP coming up in different talks. Kuzma was used to dangle to trade up to #4 with Sacramento.

[9 and 20]

Thanks for the rundown. Wiz really need to trade both Kuz and KCP. All their young guys play the same positions as these 2, and on top of that, both Kuz and KCP will be hunting for new contracts next year. Montrezl was in that position last year and Wes couldn't manage it - what happens when we have two vets trying to get paid.

Between Beal, Davis, Kispert, Rui, and Deni, there aren't going to be a lot of minutes left for Kuz and KCP. If you can combine those two and get a real upgrade at point guard (maybe Brogdon, and Indy reroutes Kuz and KCP for picks?) and then spend the MLE on another Kuz or KCP-level player, then you might have something. That something still won't be in the top half of east, but at least we'd be better than a borderline play-in team.

Also leaves open the option of trading everyone at midseason if all of the above is wrong and they're garbage again (Beal plays even worse, Zingus gets hurt, young guys don't take a step forward, etc. - probably the more likely outcome, tbh).

[payitforward]

I think someone will pay Tyus Jones. He's good. Or, if MLE money would get him, then Memphis will keep him.

We should *certainly* have found a way to get Kennedy Chandler. When your team is a shambles, i.e. you suck, it's a good idea to bring in cheap young talent with potential. Apparently our FO thinks we are a deep & talented team.

[payitforward]

Oh man... are we really at the point where someone will think about the availability of Kris Dunn as a potential solution to a problem? Wow... that is too sad for words.

[payitforward]

Thanks for the rundown. Wiz really need to trade both Kuz and KCP. All their young guys play the same positions as these 2, and on top of that, both Kuz and KCP will be hunting for new contracts next year. Montrezl was in that position last year and Wes couldn't manage it - what happens when we have two vets trying to get paid.

Between Beal, Davis, Kispert, Rui, and Deni, there aren't going to be a lot of minutes left for Kuz and KCP. If you can combine those two and get a real upgrade at point guard (maybe Brogdon, and Indy reroutes Kuz and KCP for picks?) and then spend the MLE on another Kuz or KCP-level player, then you might have something. That something still won't be in the top half of east, but at least we'd be better than a borderline play-in team.

Also leaves open the option of trading everyone at midseason if all of the above is wrong and they're garbage again (Beal plays even worse, Zingus gets hurt, young guys don't take a step forward, etc. - probably the more likely outcome, tbh).

Wait... if Indy is going to reroute Kuz & KCP for picks, why in h#ll don't WE reroute them for picks? Maybe if we did that, we could actually make a start towards rebuilding this team.

[AFM]

Oh man... are we really at the point where someone will think about the availability of Kris Dunn as a potential solution to a problem? Wow... that is too sad for words.

Got a better idea?
I'm not being an ass, genuinely curious. The draft is over so the time for kicking our feet and screaming about not trading the #10 for the #12 and 30 r2 picks is over. All we have left is our assets.
If this team is smart theyll trade KCP Kuzma and Rui for a decent PG. They obviously arent tanking, and with a healthy brad and a healthy Porzingis I think we're just a little too good to tank anyway. So it's either 9th seed or make a move and try to at least rid ourselves of the reputation of the Kings East.

[9 and 20]

Thanks for the rundown. Wiz really need to trade both Kuz and KCP. All their young guys play the same positions as these 2, and on top of that, both Kuz and KCP will be hunting for new contracts next year. Montrezl was in that position last year and Wes couldn't manage it - what happens when we have two vets trying to get paid.

Between Beal, Davis, Kispert, Rui, and Deni, there aren't going to be a lot of minutes left for Kuz and KCP. If you can combine those two and get a real upgrade at point guard (maybe Brogdon, and Indy reroutes Kuz and KCP for picks?) and then spend the MLE on another Kuz or KCP-level player, then you might have something. That something still won't be in the top half of east, but at least we'd be better than a borderline play-in team.

Also leaves open the option of trading everyone at midseason if all of the above is wrong and they're garbage again (Beal plays even worse, Zingus gets hurt, young guys don't take a step forward, etc. - probably the more likely outcome, tbh).

Wait... if Indy is going to reroute Kuz & KCP for picks, why in h#ll don't WE reroute them for picks? Maybe if we did that, we could actually make a start towards rebuilding this team.

It makes no sense to pay Beal $50 mil a year and trade Kuzma and KCP for picks that might help the team 3 or 4 years down the road. If we re-sign Beal, we have to at least try to win now, otherwise signing him is just a waste.

I'd much rather trade Beal and Kuz and KCP. After trading Beal, I think the next best option might be just to let him walk and then trade KCP and Kuz - at least then we'd tank hard and maybe take on some bad contracts for more draft picks and go full OKC.

They're not going to do any of that and they're going to hand Beal his bread and end up picking number 9 again next year.

[Dat2U]

Thanks for the rundown. Wiz really need to trade both Kuz and KCP. All their young guys play the same positions as these 2, and on top of that, both Kuz and KCP will be hunting for new contracts next year. Montrezl was in that position last year and Wes couldn't manage it - what happens when we have two vets trying to get paid.

Between Beal, Davis, Kispert, Rui, and Deni, there aren't going to be a lot of minutes left for Kuz and KCP. If you can combine those two and get a real upgrade at point guard (maybe Brogdon, and Indy reroutes Kuz and KCP for picks?) and then spend the MLE on another Kuz or KCP-level player, then you might have something. That something still won't be in the top half of east, but at least we'd be better than a borderline play-in team.

Also leaves open the option of trading everyone at midseason if all of the above is wrong and they're garbage again (Beal plays even worse, Zingus gets hurt, young guys don't take a step forward, etc. - probably the more likely outcome, tbh).

Wait... if Indy is going to reroute Kuz & KCP for picks, why in h#ll don't WE reroute them for picks? Maybe if we did that, we could actually make a start towards rebuilding this team.

It makes no sense to pay Beal $50 mil a year and trade Kuzma and KCP for picks that might help the team 3 or 4 years down the road. If we re-sign Beal, we have to at least try to win now, otherwise signing him is just a waste.

I'd much rather trade Beal and Kuz and KCP. After trading Beal, I think the next best option might be just to let him walk and then trade KCP and Kuz - at least then we'd tank hard and maybe take on some bad contracts for more draft picks and go full OKC.

They're not going to do any of that and they're going to hand Beal his bread and end up picking number 9 again next year.

There's no situation where Beal just walks. No contender has cap room to pursue him. That's why Kyrie has no leverage in his situation and quiet as kept, if the Wizards wanted to play a little hard ball, they could, simply because where would Beal go? He's not taking the mid-level.

[Dat2U]

Oh man... are we really at the point where someone will think about the availability of Kris Dunn as a potential solution to a problem? Wow... that is too sad for words.

Got a better idea?
I'm not being an ass, genuinely curious. The draft is over so the time for kicking our feet and screaming about not trading the #10 for the #12 and 30 r2 picks is over. All we have left is our assets.
If this team is smart theyll trade KCP Kuzma and Rui for a decent PG. They obviously arent tanking, and with a healthy brad and a healthy Porzingis I think we're just a little too good to tank anyway. So it's either 9th seed or make a move and try to at least rid ourselves of the reputation of the Kings East.

OKC was focused on getting an extra pick (as they did from NY) not trading one. I don't think the 12 & 30 was in play.

[payitforward]

Oh man... are we really at the point where someone will think about the availability of Kris Dunn as a potential solution to a problem? Wow... that is too sad for words.

Got a better idea?
I'm not being an ass, genuinely curious. The draft is over so the time for kicking our feet and screaming about not trading the #10 for the #12 and 30 r2 picks is over. All we have left is our assets....

& there you have the problem. It's our assets -- how few & bad they are -- that create the reason for kicking & screaming.

If this team is smart theyll trade KCP, Kuzma and Rui for a decent PG....

It's not whether we're smart. It's whether there's a team dumb enough to give us a good PG for those 3 players. The answer, as far as I can tell, is no. & it's no surprise either.

They obviously arent tanking, and with a healthy brad and a healthy Porzingis I think we're just a little too good to tank anyway. So it's either 9th seed or make a move and try to at least rid ourselves of the reputation of the Kings East.

We don't have the slightest shot at the 9th seed -- not unless some unforeseeable & significant changes happen this off season.

We were 12th in the East last season, & our record was nowhere near that of the 10th team. & don't forget that we started 10-3. Then we went 25-44. Our record wasn't better after the Porzingis trade.

Even if we do better than the Knicks, which is possible but by no means something one can predict, & even if Brooklyn falls apart, we still wouldn't sniff 9.

Then there's the fact that Indy improved themselves at the deadline & just had a pretty good draft. Look at their roster & tell me they aren't more talented than the Wizards. It'll be no surprise if they glide right by us.

Not to mention that Detroit just had what looks like an extremely good draft. They actually are rebuilding. I don't know that they'll pass us this year, although they might depending on how hard we fall, but they look likely to be better than us pretty soon & for a while.

Please understand, I'm not a hater -- & certainly not a Brad hater! He's a good guy & has had an outstanding career. I want him to return to form.

& I could be wrong too! In fact, if Porzingis has a full, healthy season at a level higher than any he's ever had, if Brad returns to his best form, if Kuzma has another step in him & takes it, if Deni continues to develop at the pace he's set, if Corey takes a step of the kind Deni took last year, if Rui has a similar jump, if KCP doesn't decline further, if Johnny Davis has a good rookie year, & if a few other good things happen... we could have .500 season.

But, that's nothing. Here's what is best of all: if Todd & Carey become all-stars -- we'll win the title. I'll put money on it!

[80sballboy]

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[NatP4]

Seems like Jones at 4 years 40 million would be a steal for what he brings. Probably one of the better leaders/locker room guys in the entire league. Plays a winning game, brings structure to both ends of the court. Great culture fit with Beal, great mentor for Davis.

[pcbothwel]

PIF... Why are you so hyperbolic?

1) Beal isnt some 30+ y/o player that had a brief prime (I.e. 1 season) that clearly stands out that I reference. No, Beal is 28 and before last year had a 13k minute / 5 year period that he was an AS caliber guard. Assuming a return to that form with no serious injury and under 30 isnt some pie in the sky wishful thinking, but actually far more statistically likely than further regression.

2) You are overselling the necessary improvement for KP. Yes, he needs to be healthier but we can also be fine with just getting 60-65 games from him in the regular season. Also, you cannot gloss over the role change from a pick and pop stretch 5 to being more of a decision maker in the high post. If he truly thrives there then it opens up our potential as a team and a nightly matchup. Jimmy Butler is clearly a step slower than he was 6-7 years ago and his shooting is downright awful, but he is still a great defender and highly efficient and productive. How? He went from becoming a perimeter scorer & defender at the 2/3 to more of a playmaking role and guarding 3/4's.

3) Deni/Kispert/Rui: While neither has shown to be a franchise player, all 3 have shown to be nice glue guys/rotational pieces in the near term that can do well as 4th options. So long as Rui & Kispert continue to hit 3's and not be terrible defenders, then I think we can get by. Deni is really the wild card, but I see no reason to think he wont at least make marginable improvements.

4) LAC finished above .500 last year with Jackson, Mann, Kennard, Zubac, and Coffey as their top 5 in minutes. If you take Beal over the last 3-5 years with some this new version of KP, then we are much more in the Toronto/Chicago ~48 win territory. You want to argue that there is a clear gap between the top 3-5 teams in the league and what Im stating above...fine. But dont act like everything needs to break right for this team to be .500.

[pcbothwel]

Seems like Jones at 4 years 40 million would be a steal for what he brings. Probably one of the better leaders/locker room guys in the entire league. Plays a winning game, brings structure to both ends of the court. Great culture fit with Beal, great mentor for Davis.

Completely agree. I know PIF's assertion that signing him as a FA means he is at market value and therefore no longer a plus given his contract. But because of the soft cap structure in the NBA, players that are worth a few million more than the MLE often get crunched.
Jones has no positional versatility and can really only start next to a high usage guard. Plenty of teams would pay the MLE for that, but the few teams that would be willing to pay a little more than that simply dont have the cap space and cant be hard capped with a SnT. I could very well be wrong, but doubtful

[DCZards]

PIF... Why are you so hyperbolic?

1) Beal isnt some 30+ y/o player that had a brief prime (I.e. 1 season) that clearly stands out that I reference. No, Beal is 28 and before last year had a 13k minute / 5 year period that he was an AS caliber guard. Assuming a return to that form with no serious injury and under 30 isnt some pie in the sky wishful thinking, but actually far more statistically likely than further regression.

2) You are overselling the necessary improvement for KP. Yes, he needs to be healthier but we can also be fine with just getting 60-65 games from him in the regular season. Also, you cannot gloss over the role change from a pick and pop stretch 5 to being more of a decision maker in the high post. If he truly thrives there then it opens up our potential as a team and a nightly matchup. Jimmy Butler is clearly a step slower than he was 6-7 years ago and his shooting is downright awful, but he is still a great defender and highly efficient and productive. How? He went from becoming a perimeter scorer & defender at the 2/3 to more of a playmaking role and guarding 3/4's.

3) Deni/Kispert/Rui: While neither has shown to be a franchise player, all 3 have shown to be nice glue guys/rotational pieces in the near term that can do well as 4th options. So long as Rui & Kispert continue to hit 3's and not be terrible defenders, then I think we can get by. Deni is really the wild card, but I see no reason to think he wont at least make marginable improvements.

4) LAC finished above .500 last year with Jackson, Mann, Kennard, Zubac, and Coffey as their top 5 in minutes. If you take Beal over the last 3-5 years with some this new version of KP, then we are much more in the Toronto/Chicago ~48 win territory. You want to argue that there is a clear gap between the top 3-5 teams in the league and what Im stating above...fine. But dont act like everything needs to break right for this team to be .500.

+1