2025 Minor League/Prospects Discussion Thread

[polo007]

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[GoRapstheoriginal]

I don't even know what to say. Nate is cursed.

[bluerap23]

FuKc

Well, I still fall back on Manoah as an unexpected surprise last season. As long as you get a Manoah for every Pearson you are ok.

[Schad]

Hell, if you get a Manoah for every three Pearsons, you're doing good. Pitching prospects are fragile and unpredictable, and it really sucks (worth noting that the person it sucks most for is the pitching prospect, who obviously isn't choosing to have their arm fall to pieces).

[DelAbbot]

Dustin McGowan vibes from Pearson

[Ado05]

Pretty much any hope I had of Pearson providing any value to the big league team is gone. Shame.

[Schad]

A couple of the high A guys who are probably not prospects are doing interesting things nonetheless. Future Hall of Famer Davis Schneider has shown a bit of a power/walk combination, but the high-ish Ks are a significant problem. Jays are using him as a superutility guy, and he's probably doing enough to find some time at New Hampshire this year if they believe he has any chance of being a bench player later.

Addison Barger has real power and a chance to play SS, and his K rate (while still quite bad) has improved from 32.8% last year to 26.6% this season. That's still fairly bad, but he might sneak into our top 30 on the combination of power/possible position on the defensive matrix.

[Fairview4Life]

Whatever happened to all of AA’s $1000 draft signings?

[Schad]

Whatever happened to all of AA’s $1000 draft signings?

That worked out pretty well, all things considered. The three players that the Jays signed for basically nothing in order to free slot money (to sign Rowdy Tellez) were:

- Kendall Graveman ($5000, 8th round). Part of the Donaldson trade, weirdly gained a bunch of velocity and is now a high-leverage reliever for the White Sox.

- Chad Girodo ($5000, 9th round). Had a cup of coffee with the Jays, appears to have retired after 2018.

- Garrett Custons ($1000, 10th round). Was never really expected to play pro ball because he had mandatory service in the Air Force. Played a summer of rookie league, and then was off to the USAF. He's still there; appears that he was a budget analyst for several years, and now directs a cell of AFWERX, which is some sort of public-private partnership:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/garrett-custons-b5704188?trk=public_profile_samename-profile

[Cyrus]

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He's basically following the same trajectory as the other highly touted at one point Julian Merryweather, sooner or later, we may cut bait and just get something out of him, but we sure could have used him now with all the injuries, and 3/5th of starters forgetting how to pitch.

[Randle McMurphy]

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He's basically following the same trajectory as the other highly touted at one point Julian Merryweather, sooner or later, we may cut bait and just get something out of him, but we sure could have used him now with all the injuries, and 3/5th of starters forgetting how to pitch.

Looks like McGowan 2.0 more than anything to me. There's little point in cutting bait on him (it's not like anybody is going to give anything of value for him right now). Just wait to see if he ever is healthy enough to contribute anything at the MLB level.

[Cyrus]

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He's basically following the same trajectory as the other highly touted at one point Julian Merryweather, sooner or later, we may cut bait and just get something out of him, but we sure could have used him now with all the injuries, and 3/5th of starters forgetting how to pitch.

Looks like McGowan 2.0 more than anything to me. There's little point in cutting bait on him (it's not like anybody is going to give anything of value for him right now). Just wait to see if he ever is healthy enough to contribute anything at the MLB level.

Oh I agree, I don't think we should trade him, cause his value is alltime low. But we could really have used him if he wasn't so unlucky, it's not even like pitching injuries, the most random injuries and stuff ever.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

Our 11th round pick in 2021, Trenton Wallace, is putting up silly numbers in Dunedin, with a 50:11 K:BB in 35.2 IP and an ERA of 1.26. More silly: he got roughed up a bit in his first two appearances, but has an ERA of 0.56 since, including 0 runs over his last 5 appearances (21 IP).

Wouldn't start working on the Cooperstown bust just yet though. He's old for the level, and if there's one type of pitcher that tends to overperform in the low minors, it's pitchability lefties with advanced mixes. And he appears to be a junkballer par excellence: while I think that it might partially be Gameday struggling to identify pitches (otherwise, he averages 91.3 mph on his FB and 88.3 mph on his CH, which is...odd), it appears that he throws his slider more than anything else.

By the way, I just discovered the trick to finding MiLB data on Baseball Savant. Others might already know it, but:

- Open the box score on MiLB. So, for Dunedin's game, it'd be this:

https://www.milb.com/gameday/blue-jays-vs-mighty-mussels/2022/06/28/670334#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=670334

- Go to Baseball Savant. Open a game at random from the scores at the top:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=663045

- Replace the six-digit game ID for the MLB game with the MiLB game you want. Which for the above example would give you this:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=670334

Voila, possibly spurious pitch and batted ball info. Isn't available for all games (I can't open Vancouver's game from this evening) but it seems to be available for most.

[Balki-B]

Probably an overpay to move Groshans+Kirk for a clean 8th or 9th inning man, but I’d do it.

It's an extreme overpay, particularly because relievers are so volatile. There are really only a handful of relievers in baseball that are reliably top-tier late innings guys year-on-year, and teams that have made a habit of overpaying trying to get those guys generally get really bad outcomes.

The Rockies over the past few years are a prime example: in one offseason they signed a lot of proven late-innings guys, and for the more than $100m they spent, they got sub-replacement-level performance.

https://thecomeback.com/mlb/the-colorado-rockies-106-million-bullpen-signings-are-a-disaster.html

This did not age well.

It is clear however that the bullpen has holes that haven't been filled. I would be in a much better headspace if they added 1 (maybe 2) swing-and-miss arms. Groshans or Orelvis as a premium? Call me crazy again, but I'd do it, Schad!

[Schad]

Probably an overpay to move Groshans+Kirk for a clean 8th or 9th inning man, but I’d do it.

It's an extreme overpay, particularly because relievers are so volatile. There are really only a handful of relievers in baseball that are reliably top-tier late innings guys year-on-year, and teams that have made a habit of overpaying trying to get those guys generally get really bad outcomes.

The Rockies over the past few years are a prime example: in one offseason they signed a lot of proven late-innings guys, and for the more than $100m they spent, they got sub-replacement-level performance.

https://thecomeback.com/mlb/the-colorado-rockies-106-million-bullpen-signings-are-a-disaster.html

This did not age well.

It is clear however that the bullpen has holes that haven't been filled. I would be in a much better headspace if they added 1 (maybe 2) swing-and-miss arms. Groshans or Orelvis as a premium? Call me crazy again, but I'd do it, Schad!

It's still entirely true. Bullpens are incredibly volatile; the Orioles lead the AL in reliever fWAR...not only did they have an atrocious bullpen last year (an ERA of 5.70!), but their entire bullpen is being paid less than $10m collectively. Jorge Lopez is the most expensive member, at $1.5m. Their 'pen consists almost entirely of castoffs and non-prospects.

Trading Orelvis for an 'established' reliever remains as bad an idea as it ever did.

[vaff87]

It's an extreme overpay, particularly because relievers are so volatile. There are really only a handful of relievers in baseball that are reliably top-tier late innings guys year-on-year, and teams that have made a habit of overpaying trying to get those guys generally get really bad outcomes.

The Rockies over the past few years are a prime example: in one offseason they signed a lot of proven late-innings guys, and for the more than $100m they spent, they got sub-replacement-level performance.

https://thecomeback.com/mlb/the-colorado-rockies-106-million-bullpen-signings-are-a-disaster.html

This did not age well.

It is clear however that the bullpen has holes that haven't been filled. I would be in a much better headspace if they added 1 (maybe 2) swing-and-miss arms. Groshans or Orelvis as a premium? Call me crazy again, but I'd do it, Schad!

It's still entirely true. Bullpens are incredibly volatile; the Orioles lead the AL in reliever fWAR...not only did they have an atrocious bullpen last year (an ERA of 5.70!), but their entire bullpen is being paid less than $10m collectively. Jorge Lopez is the most expensive member, at $1.5m. Their 'pen consists almost entirely of castoffs and non-prospects.

Trading Orelvis for an 'established' reliever remains as bad an idea as it ever did.

I mean, the guy said he would trade Kirk and Groshans for an established reliever.

Kirk has become one of the most valuable players in the game.

That trade would quickly look like the RA Dickey trade.

[Schad]

Or, take a look at the Angels. They committed over $90m to proven relievers in the offseason, signing Raisel Iglesias, Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera and Archie Bradley. That outlay has gotten them a 'pen with the 6th-worst FIP and 9th-worst fWAR in baseball, and none of the four have been particularly good. Don't spend big on relievers.

I mean, the guy said he would trade Kirk and Groshans for an established reliever.

Kirk has become one of the most valuable players in the game.

That trade would quickly look like the RA Dickey trade.

Yikes, I had forgotten the Kirk part of that. Yeah, trading one of the most valuable players in baseball for a setup guy is a bad look.

[vaff87]

Or, take a look at the Angels. They committed over $90m to proven relievers in the offseason, signing Raisel Iglesias, Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera and Archie Bradley. That outlay has gotten them a 'pen with the 6th-worst FIP and 9th-worst fWAR in baseball, and none of the four have been particularly good. Don't spend big on relievers.

And Archie Bradley just broke his elbow trying to join a brawl.

[dagger]

Eric Pardinho still has life. Two clean innings with 3K today at Dunedin, augers well for moving up a level or two over the balance of the MiLB season. He's still just 21.