Grade the draft

[mcfly1204]

I heard an interesting comp for Ochai earlier this morning...

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[JonFromVA]

I heard an interesting comp for Ochai earlier this morning...

lol, well, they both may end up learning something about playing the SF position from LeBron while being his primary backup.

[toooskies]

Can you expand on that?

Agbaji has one year of 40% shooting in college and not the peripheral stats to back it up. Harris had three years of 40+% shooting. He was an elite level shooter coming out of school.

Consistency in college is nice, but so is year to year improvement.

Where they ended up after 4 years, it's almost a clean sweep across the board for Ocahi over Joe including stuff like FG%, 3pt makes, 3pt%, free throw%, team role, team winning.

Kansas also had a much higher SOS score and the gap between them remains when we look at conference play where Kansas's SOS only got stronger.

And while this is deeper than I care to dive, I think how they got their looks is very important when comparing shooters.

But there are no guarantees, we're going to have to see.

Year-over-year improvement may just be the manifestation of physical advantages at the college level (i.e. more athleticism to gain separation) that will disappear at the pro level.

Harris played for one of the slowest teams at the end of the 40-second shot clock era, you need to recalibrate your clean sweep. Harris wins in 3p makes, assists, steals, turnovers per 100 possessions. Harris had better career FT%, career 3p%, career TS%, had a bigger role freshman through junior years (scoring more points/100p in his junior year than Agbaji his senior year), and was co-lead on a team that made its first #1 seed since the early 80s and first Sweet 16 since the early 90s.

And again, I'm not saying Agbaji can't be good, worse players have gotten much much better. I just don't see one season of great 3-point shooting as proof that he's going to have a short-term shooting impact at the pro level. It's easy to look at Davion Mitchell. It's easy to look at Dylan Windler. It's easy to look at Joe Harris, for that matter, to see that it's not a skill that translates right away.

I do agree though-- Agbaji is running his own race. Outliers happen. I just don't expect any rookie to be ready to play at the NBA level.

[JonFromVA]

Agbaji has one year of 40% shooting in college and not the peripheral stats to back it up. Harris had three years of 40+% shooting. He was an elite level shooter coming out of school.

Consistency in college is nice, but so is year to year improvement.

Where they ended up after 4 years, it's almost a clean sweep across the board for Ocahi over Joe including stuff like FG%, 3pt makes, 3pt%, free throw%, team role, team winning.

Kansas also had a much higher SOS score and the gap between them remains when we look at conference play where Kansas's SOS only got stronger.

And while this is deeper than I care to dive, I think how they got their looks is very important when comparing shooters.

But there are no guarantees, we're going to have to see.

Year-over-year improvement may just be the manifestation of physical advantages at the college level (i.e. more athleticism to gain separation) that will disappear at the pro level.

Harris played for one of the slowest teams at the end of the 40-second shot clock era, you need to recalibrate your clean sweep. Harris wins in 3p makes, assists, steals, turnovers per 100 possessions. Harris had better career FT%, career 3p%, career TS%, had a bigger role freshman through junior years (scoring more points/100p in his junior year than Agbaji his senior year), and was co-lead on a team that made its first #1 seed since the early 80s and first Sweet 16 since the early 90s.

And again, I'm not saying Agbaji can't be good, worse players have gotten much much better. I just don't see one season of great 3-point shooting as proof that he's going to have a short-term shooting impact at the pro level. It's easy to look at Davion Mitchell. It's easy to look at Dylan Windler. It's easy to look at Joe Harris, for that matter, to see that it's not a skill that translates right away.

I do agree though-- Agbaji is running his own race. Outliers happen. I just don't expect any rookie to be ready to play at the NBA level.

Yes, ultimately if projecting college stats and traits to the pros was reliable, we'd see a lot fewer draft mistakes. No doubt why Altman relies a lot on character and work-ethic, because a hard worker and team player is far more likely to reach their ceiling for your team. He's also big on drafting guys with Team USA experience, presumably because it's a chance to see some of the best players in an age group go up against each other and get feedback from the coaches and players that worked with them.

I would point out that the NCAA 3pt line was pushed out to the international distance starting in 2019 and Ochai continued to increase his 3pt% by 30% or more each season.

I'll also add that a lack of year to year improvement should be seen as a red flag. Yes, a player may peak out at different ages physically, but mental improvement should be ongoing. Either way, we're not looking at players who were getting their points bullying their way in the paint, so there's that.

[mcfly1204]

I heard an interesting comp for Ochai earlier this morning...

lol, well, they both may end up learning something about playing the SF position from LeBron while being his primary backup.

I'd take a consistent Sasha?!

[gflem]

I heard an interesting comp for Ochai earlier this morning...

lol, well, they both may end up learning something about playing the SF position from LeBron while being his primary backup.

I'd take a consistent Sasha?!

"My offense is my defense"! Remember that quote from Sasha? Agbaji HAS to be more than just a consistent Sasha.

[mcfly1204]

lol, well, they both may end up learning something about playing the SF position from LeBron while being his primary backup.

I'd take a consistent Sasha?!

"My offense is my defense"! Remember that quote from Sasha? Agbaji HAS to be more than just a consistent Sasha.

I loved that quote... And I agree, he has to be more than a consistent Sasha. That said, Pavs had those games where he was just a **** killer.

[KuruptedCav]

I don’t have the highest of hopes for Agbaji, seniors are seniors for a reason. But, if I learned nothing else from 2013, it’s that 1) character can’t be taught and 2) sometimes the count isn’t in your favor so you choke up and get on base.

If Agbaji is a cost-controlled role player for a number of years, there are far worse outcomes.


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[mcfly1204]

I don’t have the highest of hopes for Agbaji, seniors are seniors for a reason. But, if I learned nothing else from 2013, it’s that 1) character can’t be taught and 2) sometimes the count isn’t in your favor so you choke up and get on base.

If Agbaji is a cost-controlled role player for a number of years, there are far worse outcomes.

[JonFromVA]

I don’t have the highest of hopes for Agbaji, seniors are seniors for a reason. But, if I learned nothing else from 2013, it’s that 1) character can’t be taught and 2) sometimes the count isn’t in your favor so you choke up and get on base.

If Agbaji is a cost-controlled role player for a number of years, there are far worse outcomes.

I'm concerned too that Agbaji wasn't lighting up the NCAA from an earlier age, but he was so raw he was expected to red-shirt as a freshman and somehow won Bill Self over even though at that point he didn't even have shooting to fallback on.

That he needed all that development and got it before stepping on an NBA floor is a good thing.

But nobody is confusing him with a future superstar like has happened in the past with Seniors who've dominated the NCAA tourney, we just need his primary skills to convey (shooting, off-ball movement, defense) and we've got what we were hoping to get and anything we can get beyond that through further development is gravy.

Heck, Jimmer Fredette a college super star drafted 10th was kind of an NBA bust, but his shooting actually did convey. What if he was 6'6" with length, much better athleticism, and some ability to play D? I'm imagining things turn out better for him.

I guess I'm hoping Danny Green (someone who was tall enough, shot well enough, and was athletic enough to have a solid career as a 3&d) is Ochai's floor in the NBA. I'm expecting his development to continue and not get derailed from becoming content sitting on the bench as a young player (character + work ethic) and I'm hoping he becomes a far more dynamic player.

But until we see him against NBA level competition, I admit I've got my fingers crossed.

[toooskies]

I don’t have the highest of hopes for Agbaji, seniors are seniors for a reason. But, if I learned nothing else from 2013, it’s that 1) character can’t be taught and 2) sometimes the count isn’t in your favor so you choke up and get on base.

If Agbaji is a cost-controlled role player for a number of years, there are far worse outcomes.

I'm concerned too that Agbaji wasn't lighting up the NCAA from an earlier age, but he was so raw he was expected to red-shirt as a freshman and somehow won Bill Self over even though at that point he didn't even have shooting to fallback on.

That he needed all that development and got it before stepping on an NBA floor is a good thing.

But nobody is confusing him with a future superstar like has happened in the past with Seniors who've dominated the NCAA tourney, we just need his primary skills to convey (shooting, off-ball movement, defense) and we've got what we were hoping to get and anything we can get beyond that through further development is gravy.

Heck, Jimmer Fredette a college super star drafted 10th was kind of an NBA bust, but his shooting actually did convey. What if he was 6'6" with length, much better athleticism, and some ability to play D? I'm imagining things turn out better for him.

I guess I'm hoping Danny Green (someone who was tall enough, shot well enough, and was athletic enough to have a solid career as a 3&d) is Ochai's floor in the NBA. I'm expecting his development to continue and not get derailed from becoming content sitting on the bench as a young player (character + work ethic) and I'm hoping he becomes a far more dynamic player.

But until we see him against NBA level competition, I admit I've got my fingers crossed.

Oh, long-term I'm fine with Agbaji's prospects as an NBA player. He'll probably be in the league a long time as long as he can stay focused and be a hard worker, and by all reports he'll be those things.

But plenty of people are talking about him like he's going to fix the immediate needs of the Cavs' starting lineup his rookie year. That's not how it works for the vast majority of 4-year college players. Optimistically he adjusts by the all-star break, but realistically I don't think there will be an impact before year 2 or 3, and we should expect guys like Okoro and Windler to fight hard for their rotation spots.

[mcfly1204]

But plenty of people are talking about him like he's going to fix the immediate needs of the Cavs' starting lineup his rookie year. That's not how it works for the vast majority of 4-year college players. Optimistically he adjusts by the all-star break, but realistically I don't think there will be an impact before year 2 or 3, and we should expect guys like Okoro and Windler to fight hard for their rotation spots.

I guess I don't quite follow you here. Isn't that part of the reason why teams draft 4 years guys, because they are more "NBA ready".

[toooskies]

But plenty of people are talking about him like he's going to fix the immediate needs of the Cavs' starting lineup his rookie year. That's not how it works for the vast majority of 4-year college players. Optimistically he adjusts by the all-star break, but realistically I don't think there will be an impact before year 2 or 3, and we should expect guys like Okoro and Windler to fight hard for their rotation spots.

I guess I don't quite follow you here. Isn't that part of the reason why teams draft 4 years guys, because they are more "NBA ready".

"NBA ready" is self-sustaining myth.

A successful 4th year player probably has a physically developed body and a knowledge of fundamentals that help them succeed at the college level. They're almost certainly not a "raw" prospect. But if a player's game is dictated by those physical advantages over a typical player or their fundamentals help them stay average-to-good at the college level, it may obscure the fact that they don't have enough actual talent to succeed in the NBA.

We don't see college seniors massively outperforming their draft position in their rookie years just because they're "NBA ready". They are almost never ROYs (Brogdon excepted) and typically don't play any better than guys drafted around them that are younger, unless that younger guy is explicitly "raw".

But them being older DOES create the expectation that they can play right away. They probably have a fundamentals advantage on day 1, and day 30, and maybe even day 60 over the guy who only has a year of college/G-League experience. But even college seniors have adjustment periods that can last years, especially with things like estimating how open your window to shoot is, or how quick an all-star is when guarding them. Perimeter shooting and defense are often the last things to translate.

(Not enough data on the college line at FIBA distance to know whether that will help the shooting translate sooner.)

[JonFromVA]

But plenty of people are talking about him like he's going to fix the immediate needs of the Cavs' starting lineup his rookie year. That's not how it works for the vast majority of 4-year college players. Optimistically he adjusts by the all-star break, but realistically I don't think there will be an impact before year 2 or 3, and we should expect guys like Okoro and Windler to fight hard for their rotation spots.

I guess I don't quite follow you here. Isn't that part of the reason why teams draft 4 years guys, because they are more "NBA ready".

I think I get his point. While there's a chance Agbaji can step in, take a starter's spot, and make an immediate impact ... most successful players taken in that area of the draft (even Seniors) entering the league on a good team take a slower path.

Or maybe like Okoro last year, he plays big minutes, but is only asked to focus on specific areas such as playing D and shooting wide open shots. JBB isn't necessarily going to re-design his offense around Ochai's talents unless Ochai forces the matter with his play.

But we're allowed to dream ...

[KuruptedCav]

But plenty of people are talking about him like he's going to fix the immediate needs of the Cavs' starting lineup his rookie year. That's not how it works for the vast majority of 4-year college players. Optimistically he adjusts by the all-star break, but realistically I don't think there will be an impact before year 2 or 3, and we should expect guys like Okoro and Windler to fight hard for their rotation spots.

I guess I don't quite follow you here. Isn't that part of the reason why teams draft 4 years guys, because they are more "NBA ready".

Sometimes, but generally it’s for their floor.

The jump to the NBA is just that big regardless of age, school, experience; that when the returns come is always suspect.


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