RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #4 - 1976-77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

[Dr Positivity]

1. Wilt Chamberlain 1967 (b. 1964 c. 1968)
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1977 (b. 1974 c. 1980)
3. Stephen Curry 2019 (b. 2017 c. 2015)

My view is that if the seasons are close I will go with the more modern ones, but I feel Wilt and Kareem are legitimately more dominant for their seasons than players like Curry, Duncan, Hakeem, Giannis, etc. with the comps being players like peak Lebron and Jordan. I actually respect the 1967 competition a bit more than 1977 and Wilt had to go through the greatest dynasty of all time who had a very good season that year.

Why 2019 Curry and not 2017 for your 1st choice?

I really value his play after Durant went down in that playoffs.

[letskissbro]

1. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

RS:
27.2 IA PTS/75 on +9.7 rTS%
13.3 REB
3.9 AST

PS:
31.2 IA PTS/75 on +13.7 rTS%
14.6 REB
3.4 AST

Top 3 offensive center ever and a strong defender. In his prime his scoring numbers rivaled Kevin Durant's in the regular season, only his efficiency actually held in the playoffs and against strong defenses. I don't think he was quite the creator that Shaq was volume-wise, but since he parked himself further from the block when setting up for a sky-hook and could more easily see over the defense at 7'2 he generated a higher percentage of high value assists with passes to cutters. To be honest I don't have the best feel for how good he was as a defender. I wanna say he was pretty great as a rim protector, and was enough to build a strong defense around with the right personnel. But his lack of strength and lesser defensive awareness compared to the top guys meant he wasn't the defensive floor raiser that Duncan or Hakeem were.

2. 2004 Kevin Garnett

3. 1967 Wilt Chamberlain

Will finish these later^

[falcolombardi]

1. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

RS:
27.2 IA PTS/75 on +9.7 rTS%
13.3 REB
3.9 AST

PS:
31.2 IA PTS/75 on +13.7 rTS%
14.6 REB
3.4 AST

Top 3 offensive center ever and a strong defender. In his prime his scoring numbers rivaled Kevin Durant's in the regular season, only his efficiency actually held in the playoffs and against strong defenses. I don't think he was quite the creator that Shaq was volume-wise, but since he parked himself further from the block when setting up for a sky-hook and could more easily see over the defense at 7'2 he generated a higher percentage of high value assists with passes to cutters. To be honest I don't have the best feel for how good he was as a defender. I wanna say he was pretty great as a rim protector, and was enough to build a strong defense around with the right personnel. But his lack of strength and lesser defensive awareness compared to the top guys meant he wasn't the defensive floor raiser that Duncan or Hakeem were.

2. 2004 Kevin Garnett

3. 1967 Wilt Chamberlain

Will finish these later^

I dont thinķ kareem lacked strenght

He looks really good strenght wise against bill walton in their 77 series

Bill couldnt do much to move kareem off his spots or back him down in offense, and if he could he didnt show it

[letskissbro]

1. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

RS:
27.2 IA PTS/75 on +9.7 rTS%
13.3 REB
3.9 AST

PS:
31.2 IA PTS/75 on +13.7 rTS%
14.6 REB
3.4 AST

Top 3 offensive center ever and a strong defender. In his prime his scoring numbers rivaled Kevin Durant's in the regular season, only his efficiency actually held in the playoffs and against strong defenses. I don't think he was quite the creator that Shaq was volume-wise, but since he parked himself further from the block when setting up for a sky-hook and could more easily see over the defense at 7'2 he generated a higher percentage of high value assists with passes to cutters. To be honest I don't have the best feel for how good he was as a defender. I wanna say he was pretty great as a rim protector, and was enough to build a strong defense around with the right personnel. But his lack of strength and lesser defensive awareness compared to the top guys meant he wasn't the defensive floor raiser that Duncan or Hakeem were.

2. 2004 Kevin Garnett

3. 1967 Wilt Chamberlain

Will finish these later^

I dont thinķ kareem lacked strenght

He looks really good strenght wise against bill walton in their 77 series

Fair enough. Mostly just comes down to awareness and motor then I guess.

[falcolombardi]

1. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

RS:
27.2 IA PTS/75 on +9.7 rTS%
13.3 REB
3.9 AST

PS:
31.2 IA PTS/75 on +13.7 rTS%
14.6 REB
3.4 AST

Top 3 offensive center ever and a strong defender. In his prime his scoring numbers rivaled Kevin Durant's in the regular season, only his efficiency actually held in the playoffs and against strong defenses. I don't think he was quite the creator that Shaq was volume-wise, but since he parked himself further from the block when setting up for a sky-hook and could more easily see over the defense at 7'2 he generated a higher percentage of high value assists with passes to cutters. To be honest I don't have the best feel for how good he was as a defender. I wanna say he was pretty great as a rim protector, and was enough to build a strong defense around with the right personnel. But his lack of strength and lesser defensive awareness compared to the top guys meant he wasn't the defensive floor raiser that Duncan or Hakeem were.

2. 2004 Kevin Garnett

3. 1967 Wilt Chamberlain

Will finish these later^

I dont thinķ kareem lacked strenght

He looks really good strenght wise against bill walton in their 77 series

Fair enough. Mostly just comes down to awareness and technique then I guess.

My impression of linited footage watching (admiteddly 1 game) tracking kareem and comparing him to the likes of 94 hakeem

Is that he was a strong rim protecting deterrent, decently mobile in general (ultra mobile for a 7'2 guy) although not as willing to step off the paint as a hakeem (maybe for era tactics, i understand he did it more with the bucks?) But more willing to move thab shaq

He also does a good job 1 vs 1 against walton without help and a sound defensive rebounder (also his lenght gives him a couple bull/unfair offensive rebounds too*)

My biggest grip was that i thought he lacked motor to go for loose balls or run in the fastbreak to help stop the basket the way a hakeem or russel or gsrnett would, stuff like that

There is a exemplar play where he and walton figgt flr a rebound in a blazer possesion the ball bounces semi slowly towards the sideliens and walton bust his ass off to save the ball, dive included. Kareem doesnt bother or another where every lakers pmayer runs to stop the fastbreak while kareem walks back

Those thinghs are probably not worth many points in practice but they probably add up to make a small dent in his defense

doesnt try to block as much as hakeem, for better or worse he plays a drop back play here and blazers burned lakers with reasonably open midrange jumpers althoufg they didnt dare attack the paint when he was there (which is what you want from your center first and foremost, specially at the time)

My best comparision to be honest is a worse rudy gobert, slightly less quick, slightly slower to rotate, leaves the paint less, less hustle efforts but probablt sinilar paint intimidation/protection

[falcolombardi]

Btw my pick is 77 jareem

1-1977 kareem. I think he is prolly the only player ever who would have an argument as a top 10 player all time in both ends of the courr

I dont think he is quite up there with the offensive goats who can create much more than him from the perimeter or up there with the defensive goats who have greatee defensive focus, quicker legs and reads, more versatility

But the fact he was a monster defender for his era, dpoy worthy, while being probably the best offensive player of his generation is just insane

He is a 2017 durant level scorer except he can do it without cheat code spacing/co star taking attention off him, and he compliments it with gobert esque defensive presence inside. I think he has one of the top 3 peaks of all time with a compelling case for first

2-1994 hakeem. I thought hard of the 3 goat tier 2 way big men left (duncan, wilt and hakeem) as well as the ultimate "mostly one way" player in russel who i see as the ultimate defense outlier in a way nobody comes close for offense (no curry, no magic, no nash)

Ultimately i decides to go with the player whose footage/skillset impressed me the most as one to build around

I could go either way with these four, but i think hakeem has a similar profile to duncan with a even more refined scoring skillset and better athletism, is likely that id they switched situations hakeem may have reached a level highee than duncan under pop (and i love and am ultra high on duncan so this is high credit)

Not the scorer kareem was (no center is, not even jokic or shaq) but an all time great one, speciallt in playoffs where his game is more resilient than most

He shares a lot of his profile with wilt and duncan so the difference is neglifible ans arbitrary and wilt passing success with the 67 sixers offense gives me pause. And i worry i am underating duncan (whose statistical profile matches hakee. And defensive/advanced stats resume speaks for itself) over havung the less flashy skillset

3- 2003 duncan, similar statistical profile to hakeem, goat lite plus-minus metrics, goat-lite floor raising season. I could rank wilt,duncan, hakeem and russel in any order. But i subjectively feel more confident in hakeem skillset and body among all 4. And have some doubts about wilt somewhat unpredictable attitude compared to duncan

Russel may be underated by me but is just hard for me to imagine his defense was so much better than the likes of hakeem or duncan to be bigger than the offense gap

and that wilt peak reaches higher heights than russel teams with somewhat comparable rosters makes me lean that while not as consistent/great of a career ( i have russel top 4 ever and wilt a tier below) wilr may have reached a slightly highwr level of inpact

[ardee]

1. 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon (HM: 1993, 1995)

Second best defensive center (and frankly player) of all time IMO behind Russell. He came the closest of anyone ever after Bill to combine elite vertical defense (which you have guys like Ewing and Howard specialize at) with elite horizontal defense (KG, Draymond). The other one is David Robinson, but Hakeem's much more resilient offensive game in the Playoffs creates the separation here.

The '95 Playoff run and his demolition of David Robinson is what gets talked about a lot, and rightly so, but I think what Hakeem did to Ewing on both ends in the '94 Finals is one of the most underrated big stage performances ever. He averaged 27/9/4 with 4 bpg on 56% TS while holding Ewing to 19/12/2 on 39% TS. That's -16 from his RS TS%. That may even be more impressive than the '95 matchup with Robinson who at least managed to score against 'Keem at a decent rate.

To be a guy who can go off for 30/15 on any night against elite opposition while simultaneously being a 5x5 threat is just insane, a monster on both ends who would dominate in any era.

2. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (HM: 1974, 1980)

The arguments in here, especially by 70sFan, have convinced me. His efficiency really was astounding when put into perspective, the rTS numbers are insane (+14 in the Playoffs on 35 ppg!).

I don't doubt he's superior to 'Keem on offense but I do think the defensive gap is bigger. While I also have gained a new appreciation for Kareem's defense (I always knew he was a positive obviously but as 70sFan has shown he's better even than that), I regard Hakeem as probably the second best defender of all time so Cap ends up at the 5th overall spot here for me.

3. 2003 Tim Duncan

I am going back and forth between him and Wilt and ultimately this vote may change for the next two threads. Haven't thought about it too much but I wanted to get the Hakeem vote in.

[ardee]

I will say I really do think this is too early for Curry.

We're looking at a guy here who when he achieved his highest regular season dominance was still capable of being pushed around and slowed down in the Playoffs (2016).

In 2017 his regular season impact dropped despite playing with more talent, and while that was his best Playoffs it's hard to take the numbers at face value given Durant's presence.

It wasn't until post-Durant injury in 2019, and then in the 2022 Playoffs, that we finally saw him develop a truly Playoff resistant offensive game, but by that point it was clear that he wasn't the same guy in the regular season. As a result I can't imagine putting him above guys like Hakeem, Kareem, Wilt, Duncan and Bird who put together crazy dominant seasons from start to finish, both RS and PS.

I actually think 2021 should be getting more consideration as his peak season. Similar RS dominance to 2016 but he was now strong and physical enough to deal with Playoff defenses as we saw in 2019.

[TheGOATRises007]

I will say I really do think this is too early for Curry.

We're looking at a guy here who when he achieved his highest regular season dominance was still capable of being pushed around and slowed down in the Playoffs (2016).

In 2017 his regular season impact dropped despite playing with more talent, and while that was his best Playoffs it's hard to take the numbers at face value given Durant's presence.

It wasn't until post-Durant injury in 2019, and then in the 2022 Playoffs, that we finally saw him develop a truly Playoff resistant offensive game, but by that point it was clear that he wasn't the same guy in the regular season. As a result I can't imagine putting him above guys like Hakeem, Kareem, Wilt, Duncan and Bird who put together crazy dominant seasons from start to finish, both RS and PS.

I actually think 2021 should be getting more consideration as his peak season. Similar RS dominance to 2016 but he was now strong and physical enough to deal with Playoff defenses as we saw in 2019.

There's a few metrics that have his 2017 RS above 2016.

[LA Bird]

Here are the results for round 4

Winner: 77 Abdul-Jabbar

There were 17 voters in this round: homecourtloss, SickMother, Dutchball97, Samurai, DraymondGold, Eddy_JukeZ, ChartFiction, Lou Fan, Proxy, capfan33, ceoofkobefans, 70sFan, Djoker, Dr Positivity, letskissbro, falcolombardi, ardee

A total of 26 seasons received at least 1 vote: 02 Duncan, 03 Duncan, 03 Garnett, 04 Garnett, 14 Durant, 15 Curry, 16 Curry, 17 Curry, 19 Curry, 19 Harden, 22 Curry, 62 Russell, 63 Russell, 64 Chamberlain, 64 Russell, 65 Russell, 67 Chamberlain, 68 Chamberlain, 71 Abdul-Jabbar, 72 Abdul-Jabbar, 74 Abdul-Jabbar, 77 Abdul-Jabbar, 80 Abdul-Jabbar, 93 Olajuwon, 94 Olajuwon, 95 Olajuwon

Top 5 seasons
77 Abdul-Jabbar: 1.000 (25-0)
67 Chamberlain: 0.960 (24-1), loses to 77 Abdul-Jabbar
74 Abdul-Jabbar: 0.920 (23-2), loses to 67 Chamberlain, 77 Abdul-Jabbar
03 Duncan: 0.880 (22-3), loses to 67 Chamberlain, 74 Abdul-Jabbar, 77 Abdul-Jabbar
17 Curry: 0.833 (20-4), loses to 03 Duncan, 67 Chamberlain, 74 Abdul-Jabbar, 77 Abdul-Jabbar

H2H record
77 Abdul-Jabbar vs 67 Chamberlain: 12-4
77 Abdul-Jabbar vs 74 Abdul-Jabbar: 14-0
77 Abdul-Jabbar vs 03 Duncan: 14-2
77 Abdul-Jabbar vs 17 Curry: 12-3
67 Chamberlain vs 74 Abdul-Jabbar: 7-5
67 Chamberlain vs 03 Duncan: 10-4
67 Chamberlain vs 17 Curry: 10-3
74 Abdul-Jabbar vs 03 Duncan: 7-5
74 Abdul-Jabbar vs 17 Curry: 5-4
03 Duncan vs 17 Curry: 8-6

[No-more-rings]

but I think what Hakeem did to Ewing on both ends in the '94 Finals is one of the most underrated big stage performances ever. He averaged 27/9/4 with 4 bpg on 56% TS while holding Ewing to 19/12/2 on 39% TS. That's -16 from his RS TS%. That may even be more impressive than the '95 matchup with Robinson who at least managed to score against 'Keem at a decent rate.

Also the Knicks had a 98.2 DRTG. I know DRTGs can’t be compared across eras, but that’s a defense that seems like it can probably stack up to any non-Russell led team. For what it’s worth it was -3.2 better than the next best defense in the league.

[No-more-rings]

I will say I really do think this is too early for Curry.

We're looking at a guy here who when he achieved his highest regular season dominance was still capable of being pushed around and slowed down in the Playoffs (2016).

In 2017 his regular season impact dropped despite playing with more talent, and while that was his best Playoffs it's hard to take the numbers at face value given Durant's presence.

It wasn't until post-Durant injury in 2019, and then in the 2022 Playoffs, that we finally saw him develop a truly Playoff resistant offensive game, but by that point it was clear that he wasn't the same guy in the regular season. As a result I can't imagine putting him above guys like Hakeem, Kareem, Wilt, Duncan and Bird who put together crazy dominant seasons from start to finish, both RS and PS.

I actually think 2021 should be getting more consideration as his peak season. Similar RS dominance to 2016 but he was now strong and physical enough to deal with Playoff defenses as we saw in 2019.

There's a few metrics that have his 2017 RS above 2016.

Well despite the metrics that would be obviously wrong.

[Dutchball97]

I will say I really do think this is too early for Curry.

We're looking at a guy here who when he achieved his highest regular season dominance was still capable of being pushed around and slowed down in the Playoffs (2016).

In 2017 his regular season impact dropped despite playing with more talent, and while that was his best Playoffs it's hard to take the numbers at face value given Durant's presence.

It wasn't until post-Durant injury in 2019, and then in the 2022 Playoffs, that we finally saw him develop a truly Playoff resistant offensive game, but by that point it was clear that he wasn't the same guy in the regular season. As a result I can't imagine putting him above guys like Hakeem, Kareem, Wilt, Duncan and Bird who put together crazy dominant seasons from start to finish, both RS and PS.

I actually think 2021 should be getting more consideration as his peak season. Similar RS dominance to 2016 but he was now strong and physical enough to deal with Playoff defenses as we saw in 2019.

There's a few metrics that have his 2017 RS above 2016.

Well despite the metrics that would be obviously wrong.

Curry's LEBRON is practically the same in 2015, 2016 and 2017. His 2016 is well clear of 2017 in RAPTOR and the boxscore stats (PER, TS%, WS/48 and BPM) but 2017 tops 2016 in both NPI and PI RAPM.

[ty 4191]

1. Wilt Chamberlain 1967 (b.1964 c. 1962)

Wilt, 1967, because of this:

Read on Twitter

2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1977 (b. 1974 c. 1980)

Kareem, for reasons 70'sFan has brilliantly expounded upon at length here.

3. Nikola Jokic 2022 (b. 2021, c. 2020)

People will probably laugh, but this is the greatest all-around season I've seen. Missing the team's two greatest players, by far, in Murrary and MPJ for the entire season, Jokic took a bunch of scrubs to 48 wins and a 5th Seed in the West. Probably no player in history could have taken (this year's) Nuggets to a victory over the fully healthy Warriors squad in the First Round this past season.

The league is far deeper and harder to dominate than it ever had been before. No Expansion since 2004 and a Fully Globalized NBA. Just look at these facts:







Consider: None of these guys would likely even be playing in the NBA prior to the 2010's!!

As far as Jokic's dominance, in the past 161 games (including the 2021 & 2022 Playoffs, dating back to the beginning of last season), Jokic has put up a slash line of:

27.0/12.3/7.9 (while leading all centers in steals by a huge margin) on .606 eFG% and +8.0 rTS% (while taking 596 threes as a Center).

--The only player in NBA history to put up a slash line of 27.0/12.3/7.9 in any single season is Oscar Robertson, all the way back in 61'-62', and he did it in a game that featured 127 possessions per game, playing 44 MPG.

--Jokic, on the other hand, has done this in a league averaging only 102 possessions per game, and while playing only 34 MPG.

And, Jokic has sustained this for the equivalent of two full seasons!!!

Single Season All Time Records set by Jokic this year, in the deepest and hardest to dominate NBA ever:
-Player Efficiency Rating
-Box Plus Minus

Great article on Jokic's all time great 2020-2021 Season. And, he only got that much better this year!!

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2944312-nikola-jokic-just-dominated-one-of-the-strongest-mvp-fields-ever

[ChartFiction]

1. 2016 Curry 1b. 2017 Curry

Massive relative TS% gap from rest of league. 67% to 54%. Leading PPG scorer to further amplify the effect of that. That difference is absurd but to do it on the perimeter is even more absurd. The big bang season to 'Curry's gravity'. 73 win season with a ridiculous .89 win pct. Unanimous MVP. Injured first/second round of playoff. Focus of every team on and off ball. You can say he choked in the finals but I see no shame in being 1 win away from a championship on top of the rest of the season and losing to prime LeBron and Kyrie. Greatest season of all time and this Curry wins you a championship 90/100 times.

2. 2019 Harden

Very tumultuous season for Rockets that was steadied by Harden. CP3 injured for third of the season. Melo starting and injured. Random players in and out of the lineup. Harden was a stabilizing force. Put together great RS and PS but ran into Warriors + Durant. Very arguably put up the best individual performance on the court that series. Prime Harden's Rockets ran into legendary teams every year and he was unfairly blamed for losses against teams that were just flatout better built.

3. 2014 Durant

Extremely impressive when WB was out. Felt like he was in a year where he could have turned up to any level at will. Ran into a .75 win Spurs team that went on to win the title against the Heat.

What makes Durant better than Wade and Kobe for you? What about Kareem, Duncan and Hakeem?

Durant is a player who could have ended up much higher in all time rankings if the dice rolled differently or if he had better intangibles, but ones in which he doesn't need if he's lucky enough. It's realistic he could have ended up as debatably the greatest of all time. He is on the bottom half of what his career could have turned out like in all time rankings and it's due to non-on court reasons.

Played with Westbrook. A player that others say is unplayable next to but Durant is amenable and skilled enough to make this work. He played well and performed well despite that, but stifled in both his own performance and his team performance, and I think in the worst way in regards to all time rankings. This fact being obfuscated by his own abilities in making this work.
Played with Steph, played great and won a championship but was discredited due to GS being too great.
Played with Kyrie who didn't want to play.

The two situations that help all time rankings the most are 1. seasons where players get to display individual greatness 2. championship teams surrounded by players he is the definitive driver of

He's never had either. 2014 was the closest to getting situation #1 playing alone when Westbrook was injured for two months. He showed over a two month stretch his peak individual form at his athletic peak, what could have been, and he won an MVP that year. Lead OKC to .73 win pct from December to February averaging 35/7.6/6.3 on 52.7/40/88 splits. You can argue that is a small statistical fluke. Certainly we've seen that in some players. But by my estimation, and the fact he did it immediately when called upon to do so, and what I've seen throughout Durant's career, I think those are truly realistic numbers of what he would have achieved in a more ideal construction for all time rankings. And when I say ideal, I don't mean unrealistically ideal. I mean the trajectory scenarios that most all time players end up in -- #1 then somewhere along the career #2.

This is his last stretch in his career to put himself in either a 1 or 2 situation. And it's unfortunate we have never seen Durant in situation 1 or 2 yet still and his athletic peak is far past him now.

I take peak to mean you give me a player, who's proven some ability over the year, and put him through an approaching-infinite amount of realistic roster constructions and an approaching-infinite amount of competition and run that simulation until you can capture the differences between players. And I like what I saw out of 2014 Durant to feel comfortable with him over the players you mentioned if I were to predict what those results would look like.

[LukaTheGOAT]

1. 2016 Curry 1b. 2017 Curry

Massive relative TS% gap from rest of league. 67% to 54%. Leading PPG scorer to further amplify the effect of that. That difference is absurd but to do it on the perimeter is even more absurd. The big bang season to 'Curry's gravity'. 73 win season with a ridiculous .89 win pct. Unanimous MVP. Injured first/second round of playoff. Focus of every team on and off ball. You can say he choked in the finals but I see no shame in being 1 win away from a championship on top of the rest of the season and losing to prime LeBron and Kyrie. Greatest season of all time and this Curry wins you a championship 90/100 times.

2. 2019 Harden

Very tumultuous season for Rockets that was steadied by Harden. CP3 injured for third of the season. Melo starting and injured. Random players in and out of the lineup. Harden was a stabilizing force. Put together great RS and PS but ran into Warriors + Durant. Very arguably put up the best individual performance on the court that series. Prime Harden's Rockets ran into legendary teams every year and he was unfairly blamed for losses against teams that were just flatout better built.

3. 2014 Durant

Extremely impressive when WB was out. Felt like he was in a year where he could have turned up to any level at will. Ran into a .75 win Spurs team that went on to win the title against the Heat.

What makes Durant better than Wade and Kobe for you? What about Kareem, Duncan and Hakeem?

Durant is a player who could have ended up much higher in all time rankings if the dice rolled differently or if he had better intangibles, but ones in which he doesn't need if he's lucky enough. It's realistic he could have ended up as debatably the greatest of all time. He is on the bottom half of what his career could have turned out like in all time rankings and it's due to non-on court reasons.

Played with Westbrook. A player that others say is unplayable next to but Durant is amenable and skilled enough to make this work. He played well and performed well despite that, but stifled in both his own performance and his team performance, and I think in the worst way in regards to all time rankings. This fact being obfuscated by his own abilities in making this work.
Played with Steph, played great and won a championship but was discredited due to GS being too great.
Played with Kyrie who didn't want to play.

The two situations that help all time rankings the most are 1. seasons where players get to display individual greatness 2. championship teams surrounded by players he is the definitive driver of

He's never had either. 2014 was the closest to getting situation #1 playing alone when Westbrook was injured for two months. He showed over a two month stretch his peak individual form at his athletic peak, what could have been, and he won an MVP that year. Lead OKC to .73 win pct from December to February averaging 35/7.6/6.3 on 52.7/40/88 splits. You can argue that is a small statistical fluke. Certainly we've seen that in some players. But by my estimation, and the fact he did it immediately when called upon to do so, and what I've seen throughout Durant's career, I think those are truly realistic numbers of what he would have achieved in a more ideal construction for all time rankings. And when I say ideal, I don't mean unrealistically ideal. I mean the trajectory scenarios that most all time players end up in -- #1 then somewhere along the career #2.

This is his last stretch in his career to put himself in either a 1 or 2 situation. And it's unfortunate we have never seen Durant in situation 1 or 2 yet still and his athletic peak is far past him now.

I take peak to mean you give me a player, who's proven some ability over the year, and put him through an approaching-infinite amount of realistic roster constructions and an approaching-infinite amount of competition and run that simulation until you can capture the differences between players. And I like what I saw out of 2014 Durant to feel comfortable with him over the players you mentioned if I were to predict what those results would look like.

If KD were to become this potential GOAT contenders I think he would have needed to be better defensively with his seem what GOAT level tools for that end, which would mean more defensive awareness. Not always an easy thing to be. Also KD is a fine passer bur it also wouldn't hurt if he could have become an all-time playmaker like some of other offensive engines.

[DraymondGold]

I was so impressed with 77 kareem that i tracked one of his games agaunst walton to show how nuts he a actually was

https://youtu.be/pPGW5mfqnho

Hi falcolombardi! I realized I replied to 70sFan's film analysis of Kareem but never yours. Just wanted to say thanks for breaking it down! It was a joy to watch

What makes Durant better than Wade and Kobe for you? What about Kareem, Duncan and Hakeem?

Durant is a player who could have ended up much higher in all time rankings if the dice rolled differently or if he had better intangibles, but ones in which he doesn't need if he's lucky enough. It's realistic he could have ended up as debatably the greatest of all time. He is on the bottom half of what his career could have turned out like in all time rankings and it's due to non-on court reasons.

Played with Westbrook. A player that others say is unplayable next to but Durant is amenable and skilled enough to make this work. He played well and performed well despite that, but stifled in both his own performance and his team performance, and I think in the worst way in regards to all time rankings. This fact being obfuscated by his own abilities in making this work.
Played with Steph, played great and won a championship but was discredited due to GS being too great.
Played with Kyrie who didn't want to play.

The two situations that help all time rankings the most are 1. seasons where players get to display individual greatness 2. championship teams surrounded by players he is the definitive driver of

He's never had either. 2014 was the closest to getting situation #1 playing alone when Westbrook was injured for two months. He showed over a two month stretch his peak individual form at his athletic peak, what could have been, and he won an MVP that year. Lead OKC to .73 win pct from December to February averaging 35/7.6/6.3 on 52.7/40/88 splits. You can argue that is a small statistical fluke. Certainly we've seen that in some players. But by my estimation, and the fact he did it immediately when called upon to do so, and what I've seen throughout Durant's career, I think those are truly realistic numbers of what he would have achieved in a more ideal construction for all time rankings. And when I say ideal, I don't mean unrealistically ideal. I mean the trajectory scenarios that most all time players end up in -- #1 then somewhere along the career #2.

This is his last stretch in his career to put himself in either a 1 or 2 situation. And it's unfortunate we have never seen Durant in situation 1 or 2 yet still and his athletic peak is far past him now.

I take peak to mean you give me a player, who's proven some ability over the year, and put him through an approaching-infinite amount of realistic roster constructions and an approaching-infinite amount of competition and run that simulation until you can capture the differences between players. And I like what I saw out of 2014 Durant to feel comfortable with him over the players you mentioned if I were to predict what those results would look like.

If KD were to become this potential GOAT contenders I think he would have needed to be better defensively with his seem what GOAT level tools for that end, which would mean more defensive awareness. Not always an easy thing to be. Also KD is a fine passer bur it also wouldn't hurt if he could have become an all-time playmaker like some of other offensive engines.

Second this. I think people tend to overrate scoring and underrate creation/playmaking on offense. For almost his entire career, KD's gotten the benefit of an All-star level playmaker or guard (first Westbrook, then Curry and Dray, then Harden and ~Kyrie). To KD's credit, he's certainly a good off-ball player who can be great as a play finisher. But he's definitely lacking on his passing and playmaking, which limits his overall ability as an offensive engine vs Curry/Bird/Magic/Shaq, etc. He certainly has the size and coordination for this level, but I wonder how much worse Basketball IQ holds him back vs the true GOAT offensive players and on the defensive end.

[ChartFiction]

Second this. I think people tend to overrate scoring and underrate creation/playmaking on offense. For almost his entire career, KD's gotten the benefit of an All-star level playmaker or guard (first Westbrook, then Curry and Dray, then Harden and ~Kyrie).

that timeline of surrounding players gave poor return in all time rank. There has not been a single season of kd's individual potential. most all time players have multiple. if there was, the framing of the teams you mentioned are completely different. for example, right now you look at his years with westbrook as a benefit to his career. i don't see how you can make the argument it was not a detriment. it would be framed as a statistical sacrifice with no return rather than the way you are framing it now. and things like westbrooks recent struggles with fit would see the lack of return as a failure of westbrook. imagine westbrook being paired with any of the established stars now, who did exhibit individual talent prior to his joining, and how we would view those failures purely as a westbrook one and as a sacrifice of the other star to be paired with him. rather than how you're framing it as a benefit to kd's ranking rather than a near 10 year, including most of his prime, sacrifice. a sacrifice most people in the all time rankings would not withstand and would likely fall even further behind kd in all time rankings.

kd will likely finish somewhere around 10-15 in most people's ranking. as far as healthy careers, this is the bottom half of possible iterations of his career.