Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16-17 (Texas, Michigan)

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Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16-17 (Texas, Michigan) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:42 pm

How it works
Simple ballot system: 3 votes/ballots [3-2-1 point system]. The "source" with the most points will take the spot.

It looks like interest in this project is limited, so I'm not going to have a designated time-limit for each place [though I don't want to leave each open for 4-5 days]; we'll probably aim for something in the neighborhood of 48 hours each, but we'll see.
This may be one of those projects that fizzles out quick due to lack of interest, but I'm hoping at least 2-3 people will come along with me for it.
There will be no approval of participants; anyone can pop in at any time to vote/contribute, even on a sporadic or part-time basis. No "arguments" will be required to accompany votes, though a list of notable players from each source being voted for is encouraged.....this will help jog memories, as well as stimulate conversation (and may help clarify the "source" in some rare cases where it is ambiguous). Hopefully we'll pick up some participants along the way.

How you want to consider those universities/sources (in terms of considerations of total players vs quality of players, etc) is entirely up to you [though others may wish to debate your selection criteria].

I'm hoping to make it out to around the top 20 [or so] "sources" of all-time for pro [NBA/ABA/BAA/NBL] players, but we'll see.


The "Talent Sources"
We are going to include non-university sources, as to do otherwise just leaves too many relevant players on the table.
Besides, it occurred to me that when scrutinizing the resulting list, one can just mentally exclude the non-university sources [I'll even colour-code those differently to make it easier], and what's left is an ordered list of the universities (as well as an ordered list of other sources)......two birds, right?
The source can be of the following three types:

a) (an American) University/College - if they played even one year at the university, that will be designated the default "source" of that pro player. If a player played at multiple universities, you can mentally factor that in to consideration for ALL universities played at, give preference to the university he had his BEST years at, or to the university he played LONGER at.....whatever; up to you.

b) a Non-USA Country (if not subject to "a" above) - This one is only to be considered a potential source IF they did not attend an American university. Examples would be guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, or Nikola Jokic.......their country of origin is considered the "source".
Someone like Hakeem Olajuwon, otoh, would be considered from the University of Houston [and not Nigeria].

In the event of using this designation, we may have individuals where consensus on just WHERE a player is "from" is debatable. Tony Parker is a good example: born in Belgium to an American father and Dutch mother, but raised in France (confusing already, right?). But most of us consider Tony from France [he played for their national team, too], as that's where he grew up.

And to me, that's what it's more about: where they grew up (rather than where they were born (or the nationality of his parents)). There may end up being a player for whom the "source" country is ambiguous and debatable; but we'll cross that bridge as we come to it (and again: that's why it's good to give at least a partial list of WHO you have in mind when placing a vote, so we can debate things like this as needed).

c) an American Highschool Zone - Self-explanatory: this is for American players who did NOT have a college career, but rather went straight to pro.
Having just "USA" as a single source for all American players who did NOT attend a university is just too great a source......it ends up blowing away all the competition at this point (we've just seen too many great players out of highschool now, it holds too much of a sample-size advantage over any American university).
So I've opted to break it up into three zones, which are as follows....

The East Coast Zone - This includes all states that actually make up part of America's eastern coastline [including Washington D.C. simply because it basically resides within Maryland]. That is: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticutt. Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland [including D.C.], Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

The East-Central Zone - This includes the states west of our "East Coast Zone", but east of [or inclusive of, in one case] the Missouri River. That is: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Missouri.

The Western Zone - All the states that are left: Texas, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii.


That's 14 states in the East Coast Zone, 16 in the East-Central Zone, and 20 in the Western Zone.
If you want to know why I broke them up in this manner, I wanted zones that had some geographical rhyme or reason, but also zones that had similar overall population.....
The East Coast Zone has a population of just over 108 million by recent census.
The East-Central Zone has just under 102 million.
The Western Zone has just over 119 million.

So the Western Zone has the largest population, BUT that's only by recent census. If we jumped back 60-70 years ago, that was not at all the case. Nearer the start of BAA/NBA history, the Western Zone would have been the LEAST populous zone. The population of states like California, Arizona, Nevada, and even Texas have really taken off in more modern eras.
Basketball also started out East, and spread west more gradually. So I intentionally made it the largest zone [today] to compensate somewhat for that consideration, while still having some manner of geographical demarkation to go with.

Gimme' your top 3 picks [in order] for the #16 spot.....

1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. East Coast Zone (highschool)
6. Duke
7. Georgetown
8. East-Central Zone (highschool)
9. Michigan State
10. Wake Forest
11. Houston
12. Ohio State
13. Indiana
14. LSU
15. Arizona

Spoiler:
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jalengreen wrote:.

falcolombardi wrote:.

Colbini wrote:.

giordunk wrote:.
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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:43 pm

This one might be open until Sunday, btw. I'm going to be off the grid for a few days beginning tomorrow afternoon.
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Re: Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:08 am

Titles (as top 3)
Marquette - 4 (DWade - 3, Maurice Lucas - 1)
France - 4 (Tony Parker)
Spain - 2 (Pau Gasol)
Texas - 2 (Kevin Durant)
Georgia Tech - 2 (Chris Bosh)
Notre Dame - 2 (Bill Laimbeer)
UCONN - 1 [2??] (Ray Allen, [Richard Hamilton??])
Michigan - 1 (Glen Rice)
Western Zone - 1??? (Tyson Chandler on '11 Mavs??)
Illinois - 1??? (Red Kerr on '55 Nationals??)
Serbia - 0

Total WS
Michigan - 897.7
UCONN - 828.9
Georgia Tech - 797.7
Notre Dame - 769.0
Texas - 746.6
Illinois - 695.9
Marquette - 671.9
Spain - 537.9
France - 396.7
Western Zone - 317.8
Serbia - 275.9

Total Players (Mean WS)
Michigan - 62 (14.5)
Notre Dame - 60 (12.8)
Illinois - 46 (15.1)
Marquette - 43 (15.6)
Georgia Tech - 41 (19.5)
UCONN - 39 (21.3)
Texas - 37 (20.2)
Spain - 28 (19.21)
Serbia - 24 (11.5)
France - 21 (18.89)
Western Zone - 9 identified so far (35.31)

Score [the one I'd previously shared]
Michigan - 360.12
UCONN - 359.22
Notre Dame - 333.52
Georgia Tech - 326.66
Illinois - 324.78
Texas - 318.60
Marquette - 311.79
Spain - 237.13
France - 206.80
Western Zone - 155.11
Serbia - 154.86

All-Star Selections
Marquette - 30
Texas - 27
Illinois - 24 (6 were ABA All-Stars [also a few from early 1950's; but otoh Illinois also claims Derek Harper, Eddie Johnson, Nick Anderson, and Kendall Gill.......who were all dubiously snubbed their entire careers)
UCONN - 22
Michigan - 18
Georgia Tech - 18
Notre Dame - 15
Spain - 11
France - 9
Serbia - 5
Western Zone - 3

MVP's
Serbia - 2
Texas - 1
Michigan/UCONN/Georgia Tech/Notre Dame/Spain/Western Zone/Illinois/Marquette/France - 0 each


Regarding Spain's figures:

Doncic was obviously already a very promising young player from a very young age growing up in Slovenia. But then he largely played in Spain from the age of 13 onward before entering the NBA. So I'm "crediting" Spain with all except his rookie season.

Serge Ibaka grew up in the Republic of Congo, and was a promising national prospect by age 16-17. They moved when he was 17, and he then played two seasons in Spain [one in a sort of junior semi-pro league, one in an actual pro league]. So I'm crediting Spain with a chunk of his early career, including what might be the bulk of his prime: '10-'16 [seven seasons, all his time in OKC].

EDIT: Edited Spain's numbers to reflect at least partial careers of multiple players born in other countries, but who played SOME in pro league of Spain prior to NBA.


Regarding France's numbers [newly added this thread]:
31 players are listed as born in France on bbref......but on closer exam you find several grew up in America and went to American universities. A few others grew up in France, but then attended American universities, most showing dramatic improvement while in that NCAA program. The one exception is Yakhouba Diawara, who entered Pepperdine in his early 20's, playing two seasons there [without showing notable improvement, by the numbers]; so I've credited the second half only of his meager NBA career to France.
Plus there's Tony Parker---who's not listed among those 31 because he was born in Belgium, but we know he's a product of France.

btw, found one more player to be credited to the East Coast Zone: William Howard. Born in France, but grew up in Maryland, came to NBA out of highschool. Played just 2 games in his NBA career. :-?

France is interesting: some nice talent at the top in Tony Parker and Rudy Gobert, followed up with Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, Evan Fournier (plus Ian Mahinmi and Alexis Ajinca). But it fairly well falls off a cliff after that. Their weighted avg WS is pretty strong (49.79), and their mean is decent as you can see above. The median WS is just 2.4, though, as there are 10 players with basically non-existent careers ranging from -0.5 to 1.1 WS.


Among foreign country sources, Spain still looks like the top candidate (unless putting huge stock in Jokic and his two MVP's).
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Re: Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16 

Post#4 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jun 30, 2022 3:43 pm

Well, I suppose I'll pitch my tentative picks before I fall off the grid for awhile.

1. Michigan
2. UCONN
3. Georgia Tech


Sticking with my two picks from the last round on the top. The third spot was between Georgia Tech, Texas, Notre Dame, and Illinois for me. All have reasonably good combos of depth and stars [some a little higher on one or the other than the others]. Marquette maybe on the outside, along with Spain and a couple others.

Georgia Tech's top 3 is not too shabby against the likes of Michigan and UCONN [among others]: Chris Bosh, Mark Price, Stephon Marbury.
They follow that up with a number of pretty good role players [some even borderline All-Stars briefly]: Kenny Anderson, Dennis Scott, Thaddeus Young, Jarret Jack, John Salley, Derrick Favors, Jon Barry, and 6-8 more guys who managed to carve out journeyman role player careers for themselves.
I think it was 18 total All-Star selections are represented here. Two NBA titles as a top 3 player on the team [Bosh]; Price was a top 3 player [arguably a 1a/1b] on a couple of really good Cleveland teams that were just a tiny step below contender level.
Reserve the right to switch, but they look pretty strong for this stage.
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Re: Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16 

Post#5 » by falcolombardi » Fri Jul 1, 2022 3:53 am

I leave my temptative picks in case i miss deadline, will post my reasoning later

Edit: reasoning posted later
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Re: Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16 

Post#6 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jul 3, 2022 3:58 am

Marquette

total of nba players: 41 ( mid)

mvp level players: 2 (high) (wade, butler?)

notable all star careers: 3 ( mid) (wade, butler, maurice lucas?)

Borderline stars 1 (low): doc rivers?

Total win shares: 670 (mid)

Vs

Texas

total of nba players: 38 ( mid)

mvp level players: 1 (mid) (durant)

notable all star careers: 3 ( mid) (durant, aldridge, slater martin)

Borderline stars 1 (low): pj tucker? Jarret allen?

Total win shares: 747 (mid*) my high cut-off point is 750

Vs

arizona

total of nba players: 62 ( High)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 2 ( low) (Iguodala, arenas)

Borderline stars 4 (mid): ayton(really short career handicap), richard jefferson, terry, bibby

Total win shares:974(high)

Vs

Uconn

total of nba players: 37 ( mid)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 1 ( low) ray allen

Borderline stars 4 (mid): kemba walker, cliff robinson,emeka okafor, richard hamilton

Total win shares:360(low)

Vs

Spain

total of nba players: 20( low)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star careers: 3 ( mid) (pau, marc, luka)

Borderline stars 2 (low): rubio?, ibaka ?

Total win shares: 400 (mid)

Vs

michigan

total of nba players: 59 ( High)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 2 ( mid) (webber, tomjamovich)

Borderline stars 1 (glen rice)

Total win shares (897) (high)



Total win shares: 897 (high)

Vs

Georgia tech

total of nba players: 40 ( mid)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star level players: 2 ( mid) (bosh, mark price

Borderline stars (marbury)

Total win shares: 797 (high)
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Re: Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16 

Post#7 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jul 3, 2022 4:06 am

So there are essentially two groups

The "top heavy" marquette and texas and the "depth heavy" michigan and arizona

I see uconn, spain and georgia a step below right now. Uconn has less depth that it seems at first glance (really low win shares) and only ray allen had a "true" star career of their top guys

I see georgia as solid but lacking the impressive depth of arizona or the impressive top guys of marquette or texas, their depth is npt much mpre than the latter two for example

And spain may be -low key- my favorite of the 3, with underated depth once you include the acb liga guys and the better top 3 of this group

The top heavy vs depth heavy battle happens again

I have been clear i value top end talent heavily, but i try to use it more as a tie breaker when is close and i consider this very close

Michigan win shares advantage is fairly sizable, 300 win shares~ dont come off a bunch of unremarkable careers but their top end talent is jusr a lot less impressive too career wise

Gun to my head i would lean into the top and then michigan 3rd

I have wade career close to durant and butler over aldridge so this is a wash for me, but i see marquette next top 2 guys a bit ahead of texas, then texas with better

Since the actual top end talent is so comparable (even if Marquette is a bit better 3-4) amd then texas has a edge in deptg talent and stuff like win share AND the mosr impressive career among the two as a sort of tiebreaker (durant) i lean texas here
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Re: Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16 

Post#8 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jul 3, 2022 4:14 am

1-texas
2-marquette
3-Michigan
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Re: Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16 

Post#9 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jul 3, 2022 4:22 am

penbeast0


giordunk


Jalengreen


Thoughts before voting ends? I think if nobody else votes we wont get a winner lol me and trex have completelt different votes
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Re: Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16 

Post#10 » by jalengreen » Sun Jul 3, 2022 5:11 am

oops

sticking with texas as i have been, haven't much reason to change. i'm conflicted for #2, though... i do have a preference for top-end talent right now, but that doesnt mean i'd rank cincinnati or san francisco over arizona, so it's possible for me to have michigan over one top-heavy school in marquette but not over texas. and i think that's where i'd lean towards here. although i think ill have time to reconsider for the next thread.

1. texas
2. michigan
3. marquette
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Re: Top Pro Talents Sources of All-Time: #16 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jul 4, 2022 2:45 pm

Oh my; we have our first tie:

Michigan - 6 pts
Texas - 6 pts
Marquette - 3 pts
UCONN - 2 pts
Georgia Tech - 1 pt

As a tie-breaker, we'll use H2H, which would give it to Texas [as you both had Texas as your #1 pick].
To keep things moving right along, I'm going to instantly bestow Michigan with 17th place, too; and we'll just move straight on to #18 (as participation is so scant for this project).
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