OFFSEASON THREAD, VOL. REALLY HOT

dean456 · Post #741 » by **dean456** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 1:38 pm

Here's why I think a Mitchell trade happens and with us specifically.

Mitchell wants Miami, Ainge likes Herro, Utah going full rebuild and not looking to be competitive early.

In 2023 Utah have 4FRPs if they trade for ours.
- Utah 2023 FRP
- Unprotected FRP from BKN in Royce O'Neil trade (Not trading Mitchell there as they'd hope they'd be as bad as possible)
- Unprotected FRP from Minny
- Unprotected FRP from Miami if we trade.

And who knows what else they can get moving other guys for additional picks.

In 2024 they have traded their own FRP but it is top 10 protected. So likely they will want to still be bad enough to be top 10 in the lottery that season too.

So if we trade them Herro, Robinson, Yurt and a 19yo project with potential in Jovic, they are not going to be a competitive team for a while. Robinson will be in his final year in 2025 and has an early termination clause to get off his money.

No doubt by 2025 Minny will fall back into obscurity and their picks will be back in the lottery and they can then cash in on their 2025, 2026 Pick swap, 2027 and 2029 (top 5 protected) FRPs

dean456 · Post #742 » by **dean456** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 1:46 pm

Ainge gets to look good as the GM who helped his guy get to where he wanted to go and can now sell his genius plan for the Jazz's future stocking up all these picks going forward much like OKC did post Westbrook/PG trades.

SA37 · Post #743 » by **SA37** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 1:51 pm

BFRESH44 wrote:If your'e someone who truly understood the resources the Heat had at their disposal going into this off-season, you would've been more realistic as to how it most likely would've panned out initially. I don't think they anticipated losing Tucker, but hey, that's free agency. They'll be a contingency plan, be it someone internally, or possible a trade here down the line.

But all these pipe dream trade scenarios? Donovan Mitchell? KD etc etc. They all sound great. But you have to remember it takes two to tango.

Danny Ainge isn't trading Mitchell for anything short of a top 3 consensus draft prospect (like a Banchero or Jabari Smith), along with multiple draft picks/pick swaps. He's a 25 year old all star, with multiple years on the contract. Utah just got 4 unprotected first rounders for Gobert. Like be for real for a second.

And I'm sure the organization had checked in on Durant by now. But with 4 years and no outs on his contract? He's essentially available to 25 teams, and the Nets aren't making a deal unless it's exactly what they seek. And no, Lowry, Herro, the rights to Jovic, and every available pick we can trade isn't going to cut it. Hell, the Nets don't even have to make deal with anyone at all.

There's no perfect storm set up here I.E. the Shaq trade, July 2010, and Jimmy. And that's exactly what it takes for those situations to happen.

So I'd suggest you shift your minds towards Bam and Tyler showing significant growth. A more in shape and focused Lowry. Oladipo coming back twice the player, with a real off-season to work post his last knee procedure. Caleb Martin coming back. And Yurtserven, Highsmith, Smart, taking Gabe and Strus type leaps as those around the margin guys.

Because that's what it's gonna be, playas.

In fairness, Irving, Durant, and, likely, Mitchell are all available at varying prices. There are credible rumors about the Heat being very actively involved in trade discussions for Durant and Mitchell, and most posters understand acquiring Durant would cost Miami Bam and Herro + picks; getting Mitchell would require Lowry+Herro+picks, and there is at least a 50% chance Utah convinces Mitchell to give it a run with a new roster and no Gobert.

Durant is not available to 25 teams. You can exclude the ~15-17 teams that are rebuilding/retooling/would not be contenders even if they acquired Durant. You can exclude another ~5-7 teams that have nothing outside of their top player(s) (Dallas, Denver, Clippers, Memphis, Milwaukee). That basically leaves the Lakers (Davis + Westbrook), Philly (Harris + Maxey), Phoenix (Ayton + Bridges), Atlanta (Collins), Boston (Brown), Golden St (Wiggins + Wiseman), Toronto (Siakam + Anunoby), and Miami. The Lakers, Philly and likely Boston and Golden St are unlikely trading partners, leaving Phoenix, Miami, and Toronto as the most credible suitors.

I think it will be almost impossible for Miami to improve by adding Durant because it would likely cost Miami too many key players; I think a deal with Utah for Mitchell and 2-3 other vets (Conley, Bogdanovic, Clarkson, Gay) would make Miami a stronger team because Miami would end up with a "Big 3" of sorts and still have a very good supporting cast. Something like:

Bam - Dedmon - Yurt
Bogdanovic - Gay
Butler - Gay/Strus
Mitchell - Strus
Oladipo - Vincent

DrHeat · Post #744 » by **DrHeat** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:01 pm

An underrated factor here is what we gave up to get Lowry... Lowry salary is not the issue but Precious has been developing nicely in Toronto ( Even hitting some threes in actual games something Bam has not even attempted).. He would have added another young promising player to add to any packet. This is not even taking into account that we could have drafted Maxey.

I love that Miami front office makes wining now moves however that is also the reason we never have the assets when a star player becomes available.. Giving away so many picks for Dragic took us out of any significant trades from 2015-2021 along with some picks we gave away to get rid of terrible contracts. During that period several all NBA players became available in trade packages ( AD, Harden, Kyrie etc )

We just gave away a promising young player in Achiuwa for 36 y/o Kyle Lowry hence our assets are never enough

DrHeat · Post #745 » by **DrHeat** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:08 pm

DrHeat wrote:An underrated factor here is what we gave up to get Lowry... Lowry salary is not the issue but Precious has been developing nicely in Toronto ( Even hitting some threes in actual games something Bam has not even attempted).. He would have added another young promising player to add to any packet. This is not even taking into account that we could have drafted Maxey.

I love that Miami front office makes wining now moves however that is also the reason we never have the assets when a star player becomes available.. Giving away so many picks for Dragic took us out of any significant trades from 2015-2021 along with some picks we gave away to get rid of terrible contracts. During that period several all NBA players became available in trade packages ( AD,Kahwi, Harden, Kyrie etc )

We just gave away a promising young player in Achiuwa for 36 y/o Kyle Lowry hence our assets are never enough

Hallstar · Post #746 » by **Hallstar** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:13 pm

DrHeat wrote:An underrated factor here is what we gave up to get Lowry... Lowry salary is not the issue but Precious has been developing nicely in Toronto ( Even hitting some threes in actual games something Bam has not even attempted).. He would have added another young promising player to add to any packet. This is not even taking into account that we could have drafted Maxey.

I love that Miami front office makes wining now moves however that is also the reason we never have the assets when a star player becomes available.. Giving away so many picks for Dragic took us out of any significant trades from 2015-2021 along with some picks we gave away to get rid of terrible contracts. During that period several all NBA players became available in trade packages ( AD, Harden, Kyrie etc )

We just gave away a promising young player in Achiuwa for 36 y/o Kyle Lowry hence our assets are never enough

what he said....all of it

SoFlaKingReal · Post #747 » by **SoFlaKingReal** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:23 pm

A lot of us have been spoiled to the core by the Heat. There isnt a team in the league that hasnt made personnel mistakes. The reality is we are blessed to be in a position where only a championship matters. Most fans would love to even get to a Conference Finals, much less two in three years.

Sit back and enjoy the reality that you are a Heat fan because in another world you were born 3 hours north and root for the Magic.

puppa bear · Post #748 » by **puppa bear** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:28 pm

3ballbomber wrote:Pat must be tirelessly operating overtime behind the curtain. Working intricately w/ complex detail, coordinating w/ several teams to not only acquire a whale but to have a plan b & c in place in the event they all slip. Let's get it Riles, do work homie!

Read on Twitter

Durant’s camp is driving up the value of Lowry.

There’s a way that it can happen, but it involves us sending Morris as a S&T at the max we can while avoiding BYC (around $4.5m per year on a 3-year deal, only year 1 guaranteed), with all of our other sensible players (Herro/Robinson/Gabe/Yurt/Jovic/Highsmith). So Morris needs to play ball & Nets need to be willing to take that package over Lowry.

With Lowry going out we can keep Duncan out of it, and possibly two more of the min contracts.

Vertical Limit · Post #749 » by **Vertical Limit** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:33 pm

DrHeat wrote:
DrHeat wrote:An underrated factor here is what we gave up to get Lowry... Lowry salary is not the issue but Precious has been developing nicely in Toronto ( Even hitting some threes in actual games something Bam has not even attempted).. He would have added another young promising player to add to any packet. This is not even taking into account that we could have drafted Maxey.

I love that Miami front office makes wining now moves however that is also the reason we never have the assets when a star player becomes available.. Giving away so many picks for Dragic took us out of any significant trades from 2015-2021 along with some picks we gave away to get rid of terrible contracts. During that period several all NBA players became available in trade packages ( AD,Kahwi, Harden, Kyrie etc )

We just gave away a promising young player in Achiuwa for 36 y/o Kyle Lowry hence our assets are never enough

1000% agree… and its an important post for fans and even our front office to realize.

If we dont make that trade last year, the durant trade would have happened yesterday.

What did lowry do for us in the playoffs.. we would have gotten to the ECF without him this past season.. hell there are stats out there that our team performed better with Gabe Vincent on the floor..

HeatingUp3 · Post #750 » by **HeatingUp3** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:36 pm

We did overpaid Lowry and the Raptors and we screwed once again.

Spo COY · Post #751 » by **Spo COY** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:37 pm

Complete 180 for me and so many others w/ KD lol. July 2016 I hated him for leaving for GS. Then he went to BKN and it was like okay, cool. He got my respect.

LeBron and possibly KD in the span of 12 years. If Pat pulls this off, he's gotta get a statue too lol.

Flash4thewin · Post #752 » by **Flash4thewin** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:40 pm

dean456 wrote:Here's why I think a Mitchell trade happens and with us specifically.

Mitchell wants Miami, Ainge likes Herro, Utah going full rebuild and not looking to be competitive early.

In 2023 Utah have 4FRPs if they trade for ours.
- Utah 2023 FRP
- Unprotected FRP from BKN in Royce O'Neil trade (Not trading Mitchell there as they'd hope they'd be as bad as possible)
- Unprotected FRP from Minny
- Unprotected FRP from Miami if we trade.

And who knows what else they can get moving other guys for additional picks.

In 2024 they have traded their own FRP but it is top 10 protected. So likely they will want to still be bad enough to be top 10 in the lottery that season too.

So if we trade them Herro, Robinson, Yurt and a 19yo project with potential in Jovic, they are not going to be a competitive team for a while. Robinson will be in his final year in 2025 and has an early termination clause to get off his money.

No doubt by 2025 Minny will fall back into obscurity and their picks will be back in the lottery and they can then cash in on their 2025, 2026 Pick swap, 2027 and 2029 (top 5 protected) FRPs

I admire your persistence. Reality is no. He is under contract for 4 more years. You saw what Golbert got, so you need to at least match that price for them to even consider answering the phone. I love when people say we can wait it out.

In 4 years Butler might be retired, Pat might not be among us, and im not taking retired. That's reality guys. Remember with multiple picks they can be consolidated to get a higher pick. The market has set the price, if we want to hear another other than the dial tone or laughter we need to meet the price. Its like if the Lakers come offering Westbrick for Butler and Bam, we would laugh at that offer.

Post #753 » by **BFRESH44** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:47 pm

I know we’re not implying Precious friggin Achuiwa is the difference between a Durant deal being facilitated or not. Lmao.

goodboy · Post #754 » by **goodboy** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:51 pm

anybody

heater4life · Post #755 » by **heater4life** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:51 pm

Checking the forum while at work just waiting to see an explosion in pase count. Lol

Kobewade11 · Post #756 » by **Kobewade11** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 2:54 pm

Vertical Limit wrote:1000% agree… and its an important post for fans and even our front office to realize.

If we dont make that trade last year, the durant trade would have happened yesterday.

What did lowry do for us in the playoffs.. we would have gotten to the ECF without him this past season.. hell there are stats out there that our team performed better with Gabe Vincent on the floor..

This is you down below right? Mad that we didnt offer Herro for Lowry at the deadline a couple years back. Imagine what kind of laughable trade packages we’d have to put together right now had we done THAT. Complete joke.

Vertical Limit wrote:Ive told yall... Nunn is better at everything in basketball over Herro... we seriously didnt offer Herro to Toronto for Kyle Lowry... do you know how stupid of a decision that was? And how shocking that is to me...

Thats like if Riley didnt trade for Shaq because he really believes Odom was the next Magic Johnson.. (riley made the comparison before).. riley has gone soft... in 2004 he would have made the trade every time..

BlueHeat · Post #757 » by **BlueHeat** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 3:13 pm

Kobewade11 wrote:
Vertical Limit wrote:1000% agree… and its an important post for fans and even our front office to realize.

If we dont make that trade last year, the durant trade would have happened yesterday.

What did lowry do for us in the playoffs.. we would have gotten to the ECF without him this past season.. hell there are stats out there that our team performed better with Gabe Vincent on the floor..

This is you down below right? Mad that we didnt offer Herro for Lowry at the deadline a couple years back. Imagine what kind of laughable trade packages we’d have to put together right now had we done THAT. Complete joke.

Vertical Limit wrote:Ive told yall... Nunn is better at everything in basketball over Herro... we seriously didnt offer Herro to Toronto for Kyle Lowry... do you know how stupid of a decision that was? And how shocking that is to me...

Thats like if Riley didnt trade for Shaq because he really believes Odom was the next Magic Johnson.. (riley made the comparison before).. riley has gone soft... in 2004 he would have made the trade every time..

DAYUMM HE KEPT THE RECEIPTS!!

Vertical limit gonna have to delete his account now :lol:

greg4012 · Post #758 » by **greg4012** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 3:24 pm

SoFlaKingReal wrote:A lot of us have been spoiled to the core by the Heat. There isnt a team in the league that hasnt made personnel mistakes. The reality is we are blessed to be in a position where only a championship matters. Most fans would love to even get to a Conference Finals, much less two in three years.

Sit back and enjoy the reality that you are a Heat fan because in another world you were born 3 hours north and root for the Magic.

No way man! We need to dwell on trading Precious to beat out the market for Lowry since he got injured in the postseason.

Precious is a solid depth piece but he’s getting overrated IMO. The Raptors are on the market for every available center right now. I wonder why that is? Maybe bc they actually see Precious as a nice backup energy big and not a core piece to what they’re building.

We 100% would’ve been worse this season without that trade. Obviously Lowry flopped in the playoffs with his injury, but Heat fandom has gone overboard declaring injured Lowry to be all he has left to over.

Daffy · Post #759 » by **Daffy** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 3:24 pm

Kobewade11 wrote:
Vertical Limit wrote:1000% agree… and its an important post for fans and even our front office to realize.

If we dont make that trade last year, the durant trade would have happened yesterday.

What did lowry do for us in the playoffs.. we would have gotten to the ECF without him this past season.. hell there are stats out there that our team performed better with Gabe Vincent on the floor..

This is you down below right? Mad that we didnt offer Herro for Lowry at the deadline a couple years back. Imagine what kind of laughable trade packages we’d have to put together right now had we done THAT. Complete joke.

Vertical Limit wrote:Ive told yall... Nunn is better at everything in basketball over Herro... we seriously didnt offer Herro to Toronto for Kyle Lowry... do you know how stupid of a decision that was? And how shocking that is to me...

Thats like if Riley didnt trade for Shaq because he really believes Odom was the next Magic Johnson.. (riley made the comparison before).. riley has gone soft... in 2004 he would have made the trade every time..

Lmfao. No way.

greg4012 · Post #760 » by **greg4012** » Sat Jul 2, 2022 3:27 pm

Kobewade11 wrote:
Vertical Limit wrote:1000% agree… and its an important post for fans and even our front office to realize.

If we dont make that trade last year, the durant trade would have happened yesterday.

What did lowry do for us in the playoffs.. we would have gotten to the ECF without him this past season.. hell there are stats out there that our team performed better with Gabe Vincent on the floor..

This is you down below right? Mad that we didnt offer Herro for Lowry at the deadline a couple years back. Imagine what kind of laughable trade packages we’d have to put together right now had we done THAT. Complete joke.

Vertical Limit wrote:Ive told yall... Nunn is better at everything in basketball over Herro... we seriously didnt offer Herro to Toronto for Kyle Lowry... do you know how stupid of a decision that was? And how shocking that is to me...

Thats like if Riley didnt trade for Shaq because he really believes Odom was the next Magic Johnson.. (riley made the comparison before).. riley has gone soft... in 2004 he would have made the trade every time..

This is beautiful