Porzinga! Kristaps Porzingis appreciation thread.

[DCZards]

Me too. It's not like anyone would question whether it's great for Porzingis to play the way he did in his first game as a Wizard -- of course it is! &, obviously, it's not the first outstanding game he's had in his career -- & I bet it won't be the last one either!

But the best guide to how he'll play in the future, overall, is how well he has played in the past, overall. I.e. it's extremely unlikely that an NBA player in his 7th year in the league will start having an impact on wins/losses that's much different from what it's been in his first 10,000 minutes.

Doesn't mean it can't happen! Here's hoping your vision comes true!

Players having a different impact on wins/losses when they change teams happens more often than you probably realize. The league is full of players whose impact on wins/loses (for both good and bad) has changed significantly when they change teams, have a different role, play with new teammates, and play for a different coach in a different system.

Hey, PIF, I just want to leave this right here. It’s an exchange we had about 3 weeks ago.

[prime1time]

Porzingis will be a good player for us, but with a few tweaks he has the potential to be great. He's not a good enough shooter to live by the jumper but that is precisely how he plays. To often Porzingis settles for an outside jumper when he should be fighting to get closer to the rim and get an easier look. If Porzingis is willing to do a little extra work, he should be able to find 8 to 10 easy points a game just by being active. Rudy Gobert averages 16 ppg and all he does is be active. Porzingis on the other hand is only averaging 19.4 ppg on a very low 45% from the field and 29.4% from 3. Porzingis should be able to give you everything high energy bigs give you and more. Beal's style of play should mesh more with Porzingis offensive strengths than Luka Doncic's did. The key for Porzingis is finding easy buckets and getting to the free-throw line. As an 86.1% we want Porzingis on the free-throw line as much as possible.

I know health is a concern, but just talking about his ability, size and skill level, Porzingis is oozing with potential. With just a couple of tweaks, Porzingis could be in the conversation for the 3rd best center in the league after Jokic and Embiid.

Since coming to the Wizards Porzingis has averaged 22.9 ppg/8.8 rbs/2.9 asst/1.5 blks/.7 steals. In addition he's averaging 6.8 FTA at 86.7% and 36.7% from 3 on 4.6 attempts. This is precisely what we need from him. The FT attempts and the solid shooting. Since coming to the Wizards Porzingis has a PER of 27.8! Obviously the question for Porzingis is can he stay healthy. But Porzingis is the kind of big man you need in the modern NBA. He can pick and pop. He can draw ft's and attack smaller defenders. He can protect the rim. He can knock down FT's. His ability to shoot not only stretches the floor but it also lifts the main rim protector. His presence has opened up all the backdoor cuts for easy layups.

With Rui, Kispert and Avdija each improving, we have the chance to be a very effective team next year. But we need to find a PG. I think Sato should be the pg off the bench.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Freaking Beast. This is like the time the Wizards traded Kwame Brown and acquired Caron Butler in a way...

Reward acquired NOW we know Definitely outweighs risk of traded asset(s) but both parties are potentially happy with the deal

About the only concern is the health and availability of kristaps porzingis

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

KP's numbers individual stats have been terrific in 10 games and just under 300 minutes so far.

PER of 28.

TS% of 62%.

Porzingis has been a revelation!

I'm amazed at how good of a post scorer he is. Basically, the offense is him setting screens at the high post until there's a switch. Once there's a switch, Porzingis posts up and the ball swings around to Porzingis down low. And Porzingis is pretty much automatic in the post against any non-center. He is also a good enough passer that defenses have to pay attention to all the back door cutting so they have a hard time doubling Porzingis. And Porzingis is also good as a roller.

I had thought Porzingis would be utilized as a pick-and-pop stretch 5, but I was totally wrong. Wes Jr. has really figured out how to weaponize him.

In 14 games now, Porzingis' per 36 numbers are:
28.1 points
10.7 rebounds
3.1 assists
1.6 blocks
0.8 steals
1.6 turnovers
.600 TS%

The combination of his heavy usage (31.6%) and his extremely low turnover% (8.2%) has been a godsend for the offense. The offense finally has a purpose: get it to Porzingis and let everyone else play off of him. And that has opened everything up for his teammates. The Wizards ORtg prior to the arrival of Porzingis was 109.5. The ORtg has been 114.7 since Porzingis' arrival.

Things have even been better since the insertion of Sato into the starting lineup. Sato really knows how to get Porzingis the ball. With Sato starting, the ORtg is 117.3. The defense has been terrific with Sato too. The DRtg in the 5 games with Sato starting is 107.8. (In the previous 60 games, the DRtg was 117.3.)

Read on Twitter

Lord have mercy that dude has some long-ass legs

[9 and 20]

Greatest picture I've ever seen. His legs go up to Kutcher's neck. Like a couple of mismatched nerds on date night. Zingus has been awesome for us though. Can't believe we got to dump Bert as part of the trade. Double win for us.

[doclinkin]

Greatest picture I've ever seen. His legs go up to Kutcher's neck. Like a couple of mismatched nerds on date night.

I mean not that I'm looking but where is Kutcher's other hand? Because something is going on with the big Zinger that is pointing right at the little fella.

[payitforward]

Given that Kristaps Porziņģis is one of the most unusual basketball players in the NBA, it seems almost certain that who he is & how he plays will come to define the Washington Wizards going forward. For that reason & many others, it seems to me that he should have a thread separate from & different from the one we created to announce & discuss Tommy's trade for him -- & the odd circumstances around that trade.

[payitforward]

KP has played 17 games in our uniform, & we've gone 7-10 in that stretch. Not the way you'd like to start, but not unexpected either -- given the suddenness of his arrival & the improvisatory way he needed to be made part of the team. Neither that record nor even the way he played can be thought of as predictive of the future.

All the same, it's worth discussing how he played & how he might take a central role from the get-go next season.

He played well. No one doubts that. But, can we be a little more concrete? No doubt there's more to a player than the numbers he puts up, but... well, they do count -- & they provide a good place to start. So I'm going to compare the numbers he put up for us to those of a known good Center -- Karl-Anthony Towns. I'll use Towns's career numbers but, as I say, KP's numbers only with us.

I'll start with everything but scoring & get to scoring later. These'll be per 40 minute numbers:

Defensive boards:
Towns - 9.75
KP -- 9.33

Offensive boards:
Towns -- 3.5
KP -- 3.17

Assists:
Towns -- 3.58
KP -- 4.17

Turnovers:
Towns -- 3.8
KP -- 2.8

Blocks:
Towns -- 1.58
KP -- 2.08

Steals:
Towns -- .92
KP -- 1

Fouls:
Towns -- 4
KP -- 4.08

Overall, that's pretty close -- but the edge is clear, & it goes to KP.

How about scoring?

Points:
Towns -- 27.1
KP -- 31.4

Total Scoring %:
Towns -- .624
KP -- .606

Usage:
Towns -- 26.8%
KP -- 31.4%

KP has been less efficient with us than Towns has been on his career -- in fact, his TS% with us has been about average for an NBA Center. But... that's on extremely high usage! You'd expect TS% to drop on that level of usage.

Thus, once again, I'm comfortable giving KP the edge over KAT in scoring as well.

Now, let's recall -- I'm comparing Porzingis in 17 games with us (479 minutes total) to KAT over a long career (16,450 minutes). So, I'm not really comparing the two players in a fair way. If I compared these same sets of numbers on each player's career, KAT would be way way way ahead of KP in productivity. Something pretty much anyone would expect.

What I'm doing instead is taking a look at what KP has done as a Wizard so far against the backdrop of a known career level that's quite high. Thus, objectively, we can see that he's put up really good numbers for us so far. & if he keeps it up next season... that will be fantastic!

[nate33]

I don't know if it's worth it to point out a trend in such a small sample size, but it may have some small significance that the Wizards went 6-5 in their last 11 games with Porzingis after going 1-5 in their first 6 games. If you write off those early losses as growing pains as the team learned an entirely new offensive system, it may be evidence that the team can be pretty successful with Porzingis as the focal point of the offense. Those 6 wins included ones against Golden State, Dallas and Minnesota. And none of them involved Beal or Kuzma. (NatP4 would surely point out that the win streak started the moment Kuzma left the lineup.)

The point differential in all 17 games involving Porzingis was almost breakeven if not for that disastrous 42 point loss to Boston.

[payitforward]

(thanks for merging, nate -- I'd forgotten about this thread, which had been oddly quiet)
I don't think that 7-10 record requires any explanation. I.e. no need to "write off" any games. Main point is that KP played well.

One thing I would like to know is the effect of his presence on the numbers put up by other guys on the team. I.e. per-40-minute numbers for, say, Rui in games where KP played. Note that I don't exactly mean per-lineup numbers. Just overall.

There's not enough data to work with that any real knowledge could emerge -- but the information would be interesting on its own. Give us an idea of what to be looking for when the season starts.

Also, it's pretty important to keep in mind that the numbers KP put up in those 17 games were far far better than he has ever done over a season. Don't want to get too giddy! (All the same, & without question, it was a great trade!)

[payitforward]

I don't know if it's worth it to point out a trend in such a small sample size, but it may have some small significance that the Wizards went 6-5 in their last 11 games with Porzingis after going 1-5 in their first 6 games. If you write off those early losses as growing pains as the team learned an entirely new offensive system, it may be evidence that the team can be pretty successful with Porzingis as the focal point of the offense....

Especially if the rest of the league hasn't yet had time to come up to speed on the changed team. & in a stretch of end-of-season games few of which mattered much.

Better to win than lose, all the same -- but not evidence of anything.

...Those 6 wins included ones against Golden State, Dallas and Minnesota. And none of them involved Beal or Kuzma. (NatP4 would surely point out that the win streak started the moment Kuzma left the lineup.)...

Irrelevant for sure -- but Kuzma's got to go all the same!

...The point differential in all 17 games involving Porzingis was almost breakeven if not for that disastrous 42 point loss to Boston.

Whoa... hold on there pardner! If we write off the biggest loss differential, gotta write off the biggest win differential as well! You know that!

[nate33]

Porzingis was the 4th best center in the league at reducing opponent FG% at the rim.

Read on Twitter

[doclinkin]

Daniel Gafford looks like 8th best. Or top 10 anyway. Not bad. Better than Draymond, Mobley, Turner and... is that Brandon Clarke at the top? Who is it.

[dobrojim]

Porzingis was the 4th best center in the league at reducing opponent FG% at the rim.

Read on Twitter

You'd need a 3D cube but it would be interesting to see offense factored in.

[prime1time]

It's really not a stretch to say that the most important player on the Wizards this year is Porzingis. A healthy Porzingis is arguably the best player the Wizards have had for the last 20 years. His BPM was 5.6 in the small stretch of games he played. Higher than Wall, Beal and Arenas in their best season. His combination of 3-point shooting, drawing fouls and protecting the rim gives the Wizards a player who, when healthy, is a 2nd tier center, behind only the most elite centers in the league. When you go back and look at tape of the season, you see just how impactful Porzingis is. He punishes smaller defenders and draws fouls in the low post. He shoots over defenders in the mid post. He forces the opposing teams rim protector to step out to the 3-point line creating lanes for drives and cuts. There is no way to relevance for this team that does not include Porzingis staying healthy. With that being said, I do not expect Porzingis to play back-to-backs and I expect an overall heavy dose of load management. Obviously, this will have ramifications. Including the need for a competent 3rd big. Something that we do not currently have.

[nate33]

It's really not a stretch to say that the most important player on the Wizards this year is Porzingis. A healthy Porzingis is arguably the best player the Wizards have had for the last 20 years. His BPM was 5.6 in the small stretch of games he played. Higher than Wall, Beal and Arenas in their best season. His combination of 3-point shooting, drawing fouls and protecting the rim gives the Wizards a player who, when healthy, is a 2nd tier center, behind only the most elite centers in the league. When you go back and look at tape of the season, you see just how impactful Porzingis is. He punishes smaller defenders and draws fouls in the low post. He shoots over defenders in the mid post. He forces the opposing teams rim protector to step out to the 3-point line creating lanes for drives and cuts. There is no way to relevance for this team that does not include Porzingis staying healthy. With that being said, I do not expect Porzingis to play back-to-backs and I expect an overall heavy dose of load management. Obviously, this will have ramifications. Including the need for a competent 3rd big. Something that we do not currently have.

Over a small sample size, all of this is correct. Porzingis, over 19 games, was literally better than anyone we've had in the past decade. (I don't think he was more impactful than Arenas, even if BPM says he was.)

The question is, is this just a small sample size fluke coupled with a lack of opponent scouting? Or did Wes Jr. figure out a truly sustainable way of weaponizing Porzingis in a manner that will translate to winning (provided he has enough talent around him)? I'm anxious to find out.

If the Wizards have moderate success this season, I expect Porzingis to be the reason, much more so than Beal.

[Kanyewest]

Beal's best stretch over 2019 - 20+ games


https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01/gamelog/2020#523-545-sum:pgl_basic
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01/gamelog-advanced/2020/#524-545-sum:pgl_advanced

I calculate a BPM of 5.827

John Wall's best stretch in the 2016-17 season in December over 20+ games

I calculate a 5.82

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/walljo01/gamelog-advanced/2017/#438-462-sum:pgl_advanced



Porzingis numbers

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01/gamelog/2020#523-545-sum:pgl_basic

[mhd]

Our entire future rests on KP.

[FAH1223]

Our entire future rests on KP.

It’s #SoWizards to rely on a talented player who can’t stay healthy.

But yep, he’s the key to actually being a solid team.

One thing about KP.. through the injuries, the guy has definitely put in the work to transform his body. I just hope experience and load management will get 60 games out of him.

But if not, we will be terrible and keep our pick.

[prime1time]

Beal's best stretch over 2019 - 20+ games


https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01/gamelog/2020#523-545-sum:pgl_basic
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01/gamelog-advanced/2020/#524-545-sum:pgl_advanced

I calculate a BPM of 5.827
John Wall's best stretch in the 2016-17 season in December over 20+ games

I calculate a 5.82

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/walljo01/gamelog-advanced/2017/#438-462-sum:pgl_advanced



Porzingis numbers

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01/gamelog/2020#523-545-sum:pgl_basic

I was comparing Porzingis to a Wall’s and Beal’s season BPM. Your point is valid nonetheless.