Re: Trade Talk (Part Eleven): 2022 Offseason Edition

[younggunsmn]

If the big market effect is a force field keeping out the best FA (especially on discount deals,) then the Gollum effect is a magnet pulling them in. Whichever force wins will decide our future.

I like this term "Gollum effect". It could be something we will need to count on 2-3 years down the road when we have 3 players making 95% of the cap. We need to win to reap the benefits though, looking good on paper isn't enough.
I think that means at least one finals trip, or ANT blowing up into a full fledged superstar.

[minimus]

Cant stop thinking that Tyus Jones on full MLE would be awesome PG for this roster... It would give stability in execution plus just enough shooting/scoring from PG position. For sure better defense than DLo, and better durability. Also might encourage Edwards to play more PnR with Gobert...

Another one is Brogdon...

I might be completely wrong though...

[moss_is_1]

Buying a pick doesn’t count against the cap, or count against the $5.785. It probably should.

So the amount of cash isn't affected by buying picks? Only in other deals? Or as long as it's just a straight up purchase of a pick it doesn't affect it?

[D1SGRUNTL3D]

Brogdon was had for cheap because he might net you 60 games next year.

Assuming DLo is gone next year, we’ll have to look into the Brogdon/Brunson route at the draft. Get any 4 year starting PG in the second round and cross our fingers he catches on quickly.

But I don’t know what we’re going to be looking at this time next year

[minimus]

Lakers bought 35 pick this year for cash. I hope we will be able to buy 2nd round pick every year.

[mthead2121]

Was thinking with all the guards the Bulls now have and now reports Wolves may be targeting Cousins or Dieng - I think a swap or Naz Reid for Ayo Dosunmu makes a lot of sense. We need more backup pg depth. We know Dlo will miss his usual 20 games. Having just little Mac as back up pg isn’t going to cut it. Seems like a perfect swap.

[fattymcgee]

Cant stop thinking that Tyus Jones on full MLE would be awesome PG for this roster... It would give stability in execution plus just enough shooting/scoring from PG position. For sure better defense than DLo, and better durability. Also might encourage Edwards to play more PnR with Gobert...

Another one is Brogdon...

I might be completely wrong though...

Tyus got $15M/yr to stay in Memphis, the MLE is only $10M.

[moss_is_1]

Was thinking with all the guards the Bulls now have and now reports Wolves may be targeting Cousins or Dieng - I think a swap or Naz Reid for Ayo Dosunmu makes a lot of sense. We need more backup pg depth. We know Dlo will miss his usual 20 games. Having just little Mac as back up pg isn’t going to cut it. Seems like a perfect swap.

Chicago isn't gonna trade Ayo, especially for Naz. He's a hometown guy and played well for them as a rookie.

[minimus]

Cant stop thinking that Tyus Jones on full MLE would be awesome PG for this roster... It would give stability in execution plus just enough shooting/scoring from PG position. For sure better defense than DLo, and better durability. Also might encourage Edwards to play more PnR with Gobert...

Another one is Brogdon...

I might be completely wrong though...

Tyus got $15M/yr to stay in Memphis, the MLE is only $10M.

Exactly. 15 but only for two years. Full MLE is around 44 / 4. Also it was mentioned that he wanted starting role.

[shrink]

Buying a pick doesn’t count against the cap, or count against the $5.785. It probably should.

So the amount of cash isn't affected by buying picks? Only in other deals? Or as long as it's just a straight up purchase of a pick it doesn't affect it?

I thought I heard this years ago, but I just tried to double-check it, and I can’t find anything, one way or another.

I don’t want to give you bad information, so I recant. Maybe?

[moss_is_1]

Buying a pick doesn’t count against the cap, or count against the $5.785. It probably should.

So the amount of cash isn't affected by buying picks? Only in other deals? Or as long as it's just a straight up purchase of a pick it doesn't affect it?

I thought I heard this years ago, but I just tried to double-check it, and I can’t find anything, one way or another.

I don’t want to give you bad information, so I recant. Maybe?

I thought it was weird there was a deal during the draft with $6m in cash, IIRC. So you might be right.

[winforlose]

A buddy suggested this trade to me (he doesn’t like big ball.) I personally would pass on it, but I have to admit it intrigued me enough to share.

Wolves out: KAT, Dlo
Wolves in: Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr, and maybe some picks

We didn’t narrow down the picks. I argued that if the market for Gobert is 4+ then KAT is worth at least 2 on top of the talent in the trade. He countered that we gave up less valuable players than Toronto. I will let you guys decide.

The idea was KAT is worth 2 of the guys and VanVleet is an upgrade over Dlo.

Starting lineup VanVleet, Trent, Ant, Siakam, Gobert.

Not sure either team makes this deal, again I wouldn’t, but it was a good enough idea that I thought I would bring it here.

Edit to include: I just looked at the contracts, and I am now even more against the idea. FVV and Trent are both player option next year.

[Chello1]

If the big market effect is a force field keeping out the best FA (especially on discount deals,) then the Gollum effect is a magnet pulling them in. Whichever force wins will decide our future.

I like this term "Gollum effect". It could be something we will need to count on 2-3 years down the road when we have 3 players making 95% of the cap. We need to win to reap the benefits though, looking good on paper isn't enough.
I think that means at least one finals trip, or ANT blowing up into a full fledged superstar.

The cap will be 50-60 million more by then if you look at most estimates.... Great trade!
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/salary_cap

[winforlose]

If the big market effect is a force field keeping out the best FA (especially on discount deals,) then the Gollum effect is a magnet pulling them in. Whichever force wins will decide our future.

I like this term "Gollum effect". It could be something we will need to count on 2-3 years down the road when we have 3 players making 95% of the cap. We need to win to reap the benefits though, looking good on paper isn't enough.
I think that means at least one finals trip, or ANT blowing up into a full fledged superstar.

The cap will be 50-60 million more by then if you look at most estimates.... Great trade!
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/salary_cap

I agree from the money side. The Dlo situation troubles me a little. I wish we had agreed to overpay before the trade. Dlo has SOO much leverage now. We cannot easily replace him and we cannot afford to lose him. Granted the market will take care of some of this problem, but I fear teams with cap space might decide to steal him. I think he is worth 22-25, but I would gladly pay him 30 to keep him happy and locked up. Of course this opinion is a direct result of going all in on Gobert.

[babyjax13]

I like this term "Gollum effect". It could be something we will need to count on 2-3 years down the road when we have 3 players making 95% of the cap. We need to win to reap the benefits though, looking good on paper isn't enough.
I think that means at least one finals trip, or ANT blowing up into a full fledged superstar.

The cap will be 50-60 million more by then if you look at most estimates.... Great trade!
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/salary_cap

I agree from the money side. The Dlo situation troubles me a little. I wish we had agreed to overpay before the trade. Dlo has SOO much leverage now. We cannot easily replace him and we cannot afford to lose him. Granted the market will take care of some of this problem, but I fear teams with cap space might decide to steal him. I think he is worth 22-25, but I would gladly pay him 30 to keep him happy and locked up. Of course this opinion is a direct result of going all in on Gobert.

I think D'Lo is a great fit on a team with Gobert, but he can definitely be replaced. There is always a starting caliber point guard available for cheap.

[winforlose]

The cap will be 50-60 million more by then if you look at most estimates.... Great trade!
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/salary_cap

I agree from the money side. The Dlo situation troubles me a little. I wish we had agreed to overpay before the trade. Dlo has SOO much leverage now. We cannot easily replace him and we cannot afford to lose him. Granted the market will take care of some of this problem, but I fear teams with cap space might decide to steal him. I think he is worth 22-25, but I would gladly pay him 30 to keep him happy and locked up. Of course this opinion is a direct result of going all in on Gobert.

I think D'Lo is a great fit on a team with Gobert, but he can definitely be replaced. There is always a starting caliber point guard available for cheap.

Please name 3 that we can sign for the MLE next year?

[babyjax13]

I agree from the money side. The Dlo situation troubles me a little. I wish we had agreed to overpay before the trade. Dlo has SOO much leverage now. We cannot easily replace him and we cannot afford to lose him. Granted the market will take care of some of this problem, but I fear teams with cap space might decide to steal him. I think he is worth 22-25, but I would gladly pay him 30 to keep him happy and locked up. Of course this opinion is a direct result of going all in on Gobert.

I think D'Lo is a great fit on a team with Gobert, but he can definitely be replaced. There is always a starting caliber point guard available for cheap.

Please name 3 that we can sign for the MLE next year?

Patrick Beverley, Reggie Jackson, Dennis Schroeder, maybe Austin Reaves/Coby White if they improve --- then whatever team ends up drafting a point guard in the lottery. Plus guys like Markelle Fultz, Ricky Rubio, Mike Conley, etc. who would probably be available for a reasonable price in a trade. None of them are better than D'Lo, but if he tries to extract too much there are options.

[winforlose]

I think D'Lo is a great fit on a team with Gobert, but he can definitely be replaced. There is always a starting caliber point guard available for cheap.

Please name 3 that we can sign for the MLE next year?

Patrick Beverley, Reggie Jackson, Dennis Schroeder, maybe Austin Reaves/Coby White if they improve --- then whatever team ends up drafting a point guard in the lottery. Plus guys like Markelle Fultz, Ricky Rubio, Mike Conley, etc. who would probably be available for a reasonable price in a trade. None of them are better than D'Lo, but if he tries to extract too much there are options.

Getting worse when you have a contending window is never a viable option. You yourself admit every name is worse than Dlo. I rest my case.

[babyjax13]

Please name 3 that we can sign for the MLE next year?

Patrick Beverley, Reggie Jackson, Dennis Schroeder, maybe Austin Reaves/Coby White if they improve --- then whatever team ends up drafting a point guard in the lottery. Plus guys like Markelle Fultz, Ricky Rubio, Mike Conley, etc. who would probably be available for a reasonable price in a trade. None of them are better than D'Lo, but if he tries to extract too much there are options.

Getting worse when you have a contending window is never a viable option. You yourself admit every name is worse than Dlo. I rest my case.

Getting worse depends on the periphery moves, too. For example...let's say D'Lo goes but you can swap Anderson for one of these guys, then use your full MLE on another player INSTEAD of resigning D'Lo and having only the taxpayer MLE. I think it would be pretty easy to turn Russell leaving into something lateral instead of getting worse, with an outlier possibility of getting better depending on what MLE deals are out there.

[winforlose]

Patrick Beverley, Reggie Jackson, Dennis Schroeder, maybe Austin Reaves/Coby White if they improve --- then whatever team ends up drafting a point guard in the lottery. Plus guys like Markelle Fultz, Ricky Rubio, Mike Conley, etc. who would probably be available for a reasonable price in a trade. None of them are better than D'Lo, but if he tries to extract too much there are options.

Getting worse when you have a contending window is never a viable option. You yourself admit every name is worse than Dlo. I rest my case.

Getting worse depends on the periphery moves, too. For example...let's say D'Lo goes but you can swap Anderson for one of these guys, then use your full MLE on another player INSTEAD of resigning D'Lo and having only the taxpayer MLE. I think it would be pretty easy to turn Russell leaving into something lateral instead of getting worse, with an outlier possibility of getting better depending on what MLE deals are out there.

1. Continuity matters. The more players you replace in a given year the more time it takes to rebuild it.

2. We don’t have a ton of trade assets to work with. Moving Anderson to get a PG around 10 mil now creates a need of another PF using the MLE and the guys available for 10 are probably not as good. Dlo is also relatively young with the possibility of improvement. Some of the guys on your list are older and more prone to serious injury. But, even accepting your premise we now need to use the MLE to replace Anderson, lost Dlo for nothing, and had the opportunity cost of not being able to keep Dlo and Anderson and use the MLE on someone new.

3. I am not 100% sure Dlo on a 30 mil puts us in the tax before we use the MLE. I cannot find good number about our current salary this year and next year after all our recent moves are factored in.