1. 2004 Kevin Garnett- Led the league in PER, WS, and BPM while also being the best defensive player in the league with absolutely insane on/off stats. +21 in the RS and +26 in the postseason. Unheard of.
2. 2021 Giannis Anteokounmpo- Great numbers with DPOY-caliber defense and stepped it up more and more as the stage got bigger capped off with 50 and 14 with 5 blocks on .749 TS% in Game 6 of the Finals.
3. 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon- Led a weak supporting cast to a championship behind an all-time great defensive season, ultimately dominating Patrick Ewing 1-on-1 in the Finals, scoring 8 more PPG on less shots.
1. 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon - Although I do think his individual value might've been higher in 93 and the gauntlet in the play-offs in 95 also presents an intriguing option for Hakeem's peak but 1994 seems the highest level across the entire season. Overall I have Hakeem's 94 season as nearly identical to Duncan's 03 season. I only just put Duncan ahead because I was more convinced of his offensive impact with their defense being pretty much a wash.
2. 1964 Bill Russell - Tough call for which Russell season I was going for but 1964 is the best defensive season ever. I was initially leaning towards 1965 because he had comparable defensive impact but had more success on the offensive end but his overall impact was pretty much the same in these two years. What was the deciding factor was the dominance in the play-offs. In other early-mid 60s seasons the Celtics sometimes faced teams that were hampered by injuries and if they were healthy it wasn't uncommon for it to be a very close series. In 1964 Russell's Celtics beat both guys who ended ahead of him in MVP voting (Oscar and Wilt) at full strength in 5 games.
2b. 1965 Russell
2c. 1962 Russell
3. 1986 Larry Bird - I was really tempted to go with Bird a bit earlier to be honest. Since the Celtics were both a top 3 offense and defense his impact isn't as immediately visible as with the defensive bigs ahead of him. By 1986 Bird was slowing down on defense and with guys like Parish, McHale, Dennis Johnson and Walton on the team it's hard to give Bird all the credit on that front. Offensively he also got help of course but he did carry a much bigger load, while being the clear leader on that end. Bird was the clear MVP in the regular season and kept up that level throughout the play-offs on the way to a dominant title. The Celtics didn't have to go up against any superteams but they did face strong competition in every round.
1. 1993 Hakeem Ultimately going Hakeem because he's likely the 2nd greatest defensive player ever. Not entirely convinced by his offense, while I think his scoring was very resilient and consistent, he wasn't a great passer and I think may have benefitted from the advanced spacing the Rockets incorporated more than other players on this list. With that being said, he consistently elevated his game in the playoffs in a way few players have and despite his playmaking limitations that has significant value. Moreover, I don't think anyone below him here has a great argument other than KG, I think it's definitely time for Hakeem to get in.
2. 2017 Curry This is where everything starts to get very hazy, as I think 4-5 guys are essentially a coinflip here. Ultimately, I went with Curry in 2017 albeit I'm not convinced at all by it. It came down to Curry, Bird and KG to me. KG is someone I really struggle to rank, some of the recent posts have made me reconsider his case. While I love his versatility and IQ, I just can't put him in yet due to his scoring limitations. I just feel that no matter how good KG is at other aspects of basketball, he needs a very good to elite perimeter scorer next to him to be able to win a title, and I think that's a relatively high bar to clear to the point where I can't justify putting him in quite yet. As for Bird, I think Curry is similar to Bird but better at what Bird does best in terms of off-ball portability and offensive scalability.
3. 1986 Bird The smartest basketball player ever IMO and probably the best passer ever pass for pass (very close with Magic). Whenever I watch highlights of him I see him do something new or creative and it really is incredible to witness just how far ahead of his opponents he was on both ends of the floor. I love his skillset because of how well it plays next to anyone, and how he makes any offense gel incredibly well. His scoring ability is definitely somewhat questionable in the playoffs, but this wasn't as much an issue from 84-86 outside of the bar fight games in 85, and the impact metrics we have of his offense in the playoffs suggest that from 84-88 he had plenty of impact regardless of his scoring numbers. His defense keeps him from being higher, but one of the highest offensive peaks ever.
iggymcfrack wrote:1. 2004 Kevin Garnett- Led the league in PER, WS, and BPM while also being the best defensive player in the league with absolutely insane on/off stats. +21 in the RS and +26 in the postseason. Unheard of.
2. 2021 Giannis Anteokounmpo- Great numbers with DPOY-caliber defense and stepped it up more and more as the stage got bigger capped off with 50 and 14 with 5 blocks on .749 TS% in Game 6 of the Finals.
3. 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon- Led a weak supporting cast to a championship behind an all-time great defensive season, ultimately dominating Patrick Ewing 1-on-1 in the Finals, scoring 8 more PPG on less shots.
Can't go wrong with any of these all-time great seasons. The two-way stuff is what makes them all incredible.
I would also add 1986 Larry Bird as one of the greatest peaks ever. A crafty player on defense and an absolute master offensive player between his scoring, shooting and brilliant passing.
How do people feel about 1975 Rick Barry?
"Wes, Hill, Ibaka, Allen, Nwora, Brook, Pat, Ingles, Khris are all slow-mo, injury prone ... a sandcastle waiting for playoff wave to get wrecked. A castle with no long-range archers... is destined to fall. That is all I have to say."-- FOTIS
1. 2017 Steph Curry 1b. 2016 Curry 2. 1986 Bird 3. TBD, will edit later. Likely either Russell, Garnett, or Hakeem.
1. Reasoning for Curry: In short, I think by the data, Curry clearly outperforms Hakeem.
1a. Curry >> Hakeem:
Spoiler:
Plus-minus based stats: Ai. AuPM: 2017 Curry > 1994 Hakeem Aii. Postseason AuPM: (no data for peak Hakeem. 2017 Curry 2nd all time) Bi. Goldstein RAPM / Historical Square2020 RAPM: (no data for peak 93-95 Hakeem. Partial data in 85/88/91/96 and full data in 97 are far below Curry, who’s 7th all time). Bii. Goldstein Playoff PIPM (3 years for sample size): 2017 Curry (8th all time) > 1994 Hakeem Additional plus minus stats: C. on/off: (no data available for Hakeem. Curry 1st all time) Additional plus minus stats: D. WOWY: 1993-1995 Hakeem > 2016-2017 Curry (not sure about full prime WOWY. I brought in 16 Curry because Ben hasn't finished publishing Curry's mid/post-2017 WOWY numbers yet). Additional plus minus stats: E. ESPN’s RPM: (no data for Hakeem. 16 Curry 2nd all time) Additional plus minus stats: F. Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: 2017 Curry > 1994 Hakeem (healthy 2016 Steph Curry and 1993 Hakeem tied 4th all time)
2017 Curry beats 1994 Hakeem 4/4 of our most trusted stats, 4/4 playoff-only stats, and by 9/10 stats total. If we add 2016 Curry and either 1993 or 1994 Hakeem (whichever helps Hakeem more), Curry beats Hakeem in 8/10 stats with 1 tie. The only stats Hakeem ties or beats Curry in are WOWY (which is famously noisy and missing data for Curry) and CORP (which is Ben Taylor's personal evaluation). In the four of the stats that aren’t old enough for Hakeem, Curry is at least 2nd all time in three of them. In short: I don't think there's any statistical argument for Hakeem > Curry.
1b. Curry >= Duncan, Shaq, Kareem by the impact metrics (see previous posts for details).
1c. Curry > Russell:
Spoiler:
Plus-minus based stats: Ai. AuPM: [No Russell data. 2016 Curry would be 2nd all time, 2017 Curry (4th all time)] Aii. Postseason AuPM: [No Russell data. 2017 Curry (2nd all time)] Bi. Goldstein RAPM / Historical Square2020 RAPM: (no Russell data. 2017 Curry (7th all time)) Bii. Goldstein Playoff PIPM (3 years for sample size): (no Russell data. 2017 Curry 8th all time) Additional plus minus stats: C. on/off: (No Russell data. 2017 Curry (1st all time) Additional plus minus stats: D. WOWY: Russell > Curry (sample incomplete for Curry) Additional plus minus stats: E. ESPN’s RPM: (No Russell data. 2016 Curry would be 2nd all time. 17 Curry 6th all time) Additional plus minus stats: F. Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: (2016 Healthy Curry would be 4th all time) > 2017 Curry (8th all time) > 1962-1964 Russell (10th all time)
Box score-based data Gi. Backpicks BPM: (2016 Curry 2nd all time) > 2017 Curry (15th all time) > (65 Russell not top 20 all time) > (62-64 Bill Russell) Gii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: 2017 Curry (6th all time) > 1962/64/65 Russell Additional box score stats: Hi. BR’s BPM: (No Russell data. 2016 Curry would be 3rd all time) Additional box score stats: Hii. BR’s Postseason BPM: (No Russell data. 2017 Curry 13th all time) Additional box score stats: Ii. WS/48: (2016 Curry 3rd all time) > 1964 Russell > 2017 Curry > (1962 Russell) Total WS: (2016 Curry) > 1964 Russell > 1962 Russell) > 2017 Curry Additional box score stats: Iii. Postseason WS/48: (1965 Russell) > 2017 Curry > (1962 Russell) > 1964 Russell
In preferred stats, Curry wins 2/2. Playoff-only stats are tied 1-1 while in total stats we have, Curry wins 4-2. The only stats where Russell is ahead is WOWY (which is missing much of Curry's data), and WS/48, which is the least trusted stat here. If we expand the years (16 for curry and any year in 62-65 for russell), Curry still wins 4-2. 16/17 Curry is also top 2 all time in 4/8 of the stats we don’t have for Russell, and top 10 all time in 7/8 of the stats we don’t have for Russell.
1d. Curry > Bird
Spoiler:
Plus-minus based stats: Ai. AuPM: [No Bird data. 2016 Curry would be 2nd all time, 2017 Curry (4th all time)] Aii. Postseason AuPM: [No Bird data. 2017 Curry (2nd all time)] Bi. Goldstein RAPM / Historical Square2020 RAPM: 2017 Curry (7th all time) > 1986 Bird (~20th all time, but small sample) Bii. Goldstein Playoff PIPM (3 years for sample size): 2017 Curry (8th all time) > 1986 Bird (9th all time) Additional plus minus stats: C. on/off: (No Bird data. 2017 Curry (1st all time) Additional plus minus stats: D. WOWY: Bird > Curry (sample incomplete for Curry) Additional plus minus stats: E. ESPN’s RPM: (No Bird data. 2016 Curry would be 2nd all time. 17 Curry 6th all time) Additional plus minus stats: F. Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: (2016 Healthy Curry would be tied 4th all time) > 2017 Curry (8th all time) > 1986 Bird (11th all time)
Box score-based data Gi. Backpicks BPM: (2016 Curry 2nd all time) > 1986 Bird (10th all time) > 2017 Curry (15th all time) Gii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: 1986 Bird (4th all time) > 2017 Curry (6th all time) Additional box score stats: Hi. BR’s BPM: (2016 Curry 3rd all time) > (1987 Bird 17th all time) > 1986 Bird > 2017 Curry Additional box score stats: Hii. BR’s Postseason BPM: 1986 Larry Bird > 2017 Curry (13th all time) Additional box score stats: Ii. WS/48: (2016 would be Curry 3rd all time) > 1986 Bird > 2017 Curry Total WS: (2016 Curry) > 1986 Bird > 2017 Curry Additional box score stats: Iii. Postseason WS/48: 2017 Curry > 1986 Bird
1986 Bird and 2017 Curry are tied 2-2 in our more trusted stats and in playoff-only stats, so it's clearly close. If we include less-trusted stats, 1986 Bird beats 2017 Curry 6-4. But: If we look at a larger sample (2016 for Curry and either 1985 or 1987 for Bird, whichever helps Bird more), Curry dominates in 7/10 stats. 16/17 Curry is also top 2 all time in all 4 stats that don’t have data for Bird.
1e. Counter to Curry 1: Did better fit allow Curry to put up better stats than Hakeem and Duncan? Not enough to matter. The team around Steph did have an optimal fit, and the team was dominant. But the data seems to suggest the team's dominance was primarily driven by Curry. The other all stars obviously helped the team win, but superstars' individual stats usually decline when they have better teammates, because the better teammates take on-ball time away from the superstar. Instead, Curry's numbers seem as dominant as ever. This indicates Curry's GOAT-level ceiling raising ability.
From 2017–2019 (larger sample to give more stable values), here's the net rating with each of the stars on or off: -All 4 stars on: +17. (that's 20% better than the 1996 Chicago Bulls across 3 seasons!) -Only Klay off: +15.64. -Only KD off: +13.54 (still better than the 96 Chicago Bulls even with KD off) -Only Draymond off: +12.77 -Only Steph on, all 3 other stars off: +10.81 -Only Steph off: +1.94 With all 3 other all stars off, and just Steph on, the 17-19 Warriors have a better net rating than the 16 Warriors, 13 Heat, 2000 Lakers, 91 Bulls, 87 Lakers, or 86 Celtics. With all 3 all stars on, and just Steph off, the 17-19 Warriors are worse than this season's 2022 Cavs. This pattern remains in the playoffs (more info below).
1f. Counter to Curry 2: Did Hakeem and Duncan have better resilience to justify them over Curry? No. I would agree that the other all time peaks might be more resilient than Curry. But is do they improve enough to be better than him? I'm not sure... Curry's playoff decline almost entirely correlates with postseason health. Per Per BPM and AUPM, Curry actually improves in the playoffs when he's healthy. Even if the others improve more in the playoffs, the difference isn't significant enough for them to catch up to Curry (e.g. Shaq's career +0.67% improvement vs Curry's career +0.57% improvement), particularly when 2017 Curry outperforms his opponents per the above statistics. More in depth discussion of Curry's Resilience here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100017661#p100017661
1g. Counter to Curry 3: Did Curry face sufficiently weak playoff opponents to allow his postseason success? Here are the average playoff opponents' Overall SRS (playoff + regular season SRS) for some relevant teams: 1995 Rockets' opponents: +6.3 (Hardest opponent: Jazz and Spurs at +7.8) 2004 Rockets' opponents: +5.09 (hardest opponent: Lakers at +7.6) [note: partial regular season SRS for this stat] 1994 Rockets' opponents: +4.73 (hardest opponent: Knicks at +6.48) [note: regular season SRS for this stat] 2017 Warriors' opponents: +4.59 (hardest opponent: Cavs at +9.5) 2003 Spurs' opponents: +4.45 (hardest opponent: Mavs at +7.5) 1991 Bulls' opponents: +4.1 (hardest opponent: Lakers at +8.1) [note: added for context] 1986 Celtics' opponents: +2.77 (hardest opponent: Rockets at +7.4) 1987 Lakers' opponents: +1.53 (hardest opponent: Celtics at +5.3) So without counting for opponent injury, 2017 Curry's average playoff opponents were better the opponents of 2003 Tim Duncan, 1991 Jordan, 1986 Larry Bird, or 1987 Magic Johnson. If we downgrade Curry for facing injured opponents (without downgrading injuries faced by anyone else), Curry still had harder playoff opponents than Bird or Magic (see Sansterre's Warriors article for details). The 2017 Cavs were statistically a better opponent than any opponent faced by 1994-95 Hakeem, 2004 Garnett, 2003 Duncan, 1991 Jordan, 1986 Bird, or 1987 Magic. Source for opponent SRS: Basketball Reference, Sansterre's Top 100 Teams: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2012241.
This overall opponent difficulty does not account for the disproportionate defensive attention that Curry faced. For example, in the 2018 Finals, Curry faced double teams more than 20x more (that's 2000% more) than Durant. (Source: Nbalogix and Clutch Points. 2017 Finals is locked behind a paywall)
1h. Counter to Curry 4: Does health matter? Maybe. Curry was healthy throughout the entire 2017 season, which is one of the reasons I take 2017 over 2016. However, if you want to dock Curry for being a health risk (even though he stayed healthy this season), that's understandable.
1i. Counter to Curry 5: Should we have 2016 Curry > 2017 Curry? I certainly see the arguments for 2016 Curry. If he had a healthy playoffs (or if you only care about players' chances of getting injured in a season, rather than whether they actually got injured or not), I could see 2016 Curry > 2017 Curry. Still, Doctor Mj and I have argued before that Curry actually was a better player in 2017. Specifically, I see him improving in his health, resilience (e.g. better strength, decision making, and handle), and scalability. I'm not concerned by that his decline in metrics from 2016 to 2017 show a decline in skill -- Curry openly admitted in interviews that mentally, he took too much of a step back and and got into a small slump when trying to accommodate KD. This shows good leadership and chemistry. Once he figured out how to play alongside KD, metrics / the eye test / player interviews all say 2017 Curry returned to 2016 form by the end of the 2017 regular seasons. More discussion on 2017 Curry > 2016 be found here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100017661#p100017661
2. Reasoning for Bird: What about Bird against the competition of KG or Hakeem?
Spoiler:
Hakeem vs Duncan vs KG vs Bird: Plus-minus based stats: Ai. AuPM: 2004 KG (3rd all time) > 2003 Duncan (7th all time) > 1994 Hakeem (9th all time) Aii. Postseason AuPM: 2003 Duncan (3rd all time) > 2004 Garnett (12th all time) [No older players] Bi. Goldstein RAPM / Historical Square2020 RAPM: 2004 Garnett (1st all time) > 2003 Duncan (3rd all time) > Bird (~20th all time, but small sample) > Hakeem (~20th all time, small sample) Bii. Goldstein Playoff PIPM (3 years for sample size): 2003 Duncan (1st all time) > 1986 Bird (9th all time) > 1994 Hakeem (16th all time) > 2004 Garnett (20th all time) Additional plus minus stats: C. on/off: 2003 Duncan > 2004 Garnett [no older players] Additional plus minus stats: D. WOWY: Garnett > Duncan = Hakeem > Bird Additional plus minus stats: E. ESPN’s RPM: (2005 Duncan) > 2004 Garnett (7th all time) > 2003 Duncan (8th all time) Additional plus minus stats: F. Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: (1993 Hakeem) > 2004 Garnett (5th all time) > (2002 Duncan) > 2003 Duncan (9th all time) > 1986 Larry Bird > 1994 Hakeem (would be 14 all time)
Box score-based data Gi. Backpicks BPM: 1986 Bird (10th all time) > 2004 Garnett (15th all time) > (1993 Hakeem 17th all time) > (2002 Duncan 20th all time) > 2003 Duncan > 1994 Hakeem Gii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: 1986 Bird (4th all time) > 2003 Duncan (tie 6th all time) > 1967 Wilt (12th all time) > 1994 Hakeem (13th all time) > (1993 Hakeem) > 2003/04 Garnett Additional box score stats: Hi. BR’s BPM: 2004 Garnett (13th all time) > 1986 Bird > (2004 Duncan) > 2003 Duncan > (1993 Hakeem) > 1994 Hakeem Additional box score stats: Hii. BR’s Postseason BPM: (2002 Duncan would be 8th all time) > 2003 Duncan > 1986 Larry Bird > (1993 Hakeem) > 1994 Hakeem > 2004 Garnett [No Russell, Will] Additional box score stats: Ii. WS/48: 2004 Garnett > (2002/04 Duncan) > 2003 Duncan > 1986 Larry Bird > (1993 Hakeem) > 1994 Hakeem Total WS: 2004 Garnett > (2002 Duncan) > 2003 Duncan > (1993 Hakeem 93) > 1986 Larry Bird > 1994 Hakeem Additional box score stats: Iii. Postseason WS/48: 2003 Duncan > 1986 Larry Bird > (1993 Hakeem) > 1994 Hakeem > 2004 Garnett
Bird > KG: 2004 KG and 1986 Bird are tied 4 stats to 4, but Bird’s up 3-1 in our most trusted stats, and Bird leads in 4/4 playoff-only stats.
Bird > Hakeem: 86 Bird beats 94 Hakeem in 4/4 of the most trusted stats, 4/4 of the playoff-only stats, and 9/10 of the total stats. If we add 93 Hakeem to the mix, 86 Bird still wins in 8/10 total stats (or 7/8 if you prefer total WS over WS/48).
Any contextual factors (1. Scalability, 2. Resilience, 3. Health, 4. Defense not captured in impact metrics, 5. Team Fit exaggerating/limiting impact, 6. Time machine.)? Bird is definitely more scalable and performs better in a time machine to today the Hakeem (though it's close for KG). KG doesn't have a resilience advantage, and Hakeem's Resilience advantage isn't enough to make up the difference according to playoff-only stats. Overall, the contextual factors aren't enough in KG or Hakeem's favor to make up for Bird's clear impact advantage.
3. Thoughts on Russell vs KG vs Hakeem
KG ~ Hakeem: 2004 KG beats 1994 Hakeem by 3-2 in the most trusted stats, by 7-4 in total stats, but Hakeem wins in all 4 playoff-only stats. If we add 1993 Hakeem to the mix, KG wins by 6-5 total stats. If you change the per 100 stats to per game, 93 Hakeem overtakes 04 Garnett in BP’s BPM. It’s clearly close, with KG having a slight advantage statistically and clear advantage in portability. Still, the Hakeem’s resilience pushes his playoff value up and makes it close.
Russell ~ Hakeem (with Hakeem again being below Curry, Duncan, Bird)
Spoiler:
Wilt > Hakeem ~ Russell. Plus-minus based stats: Ai. AuPM: 1994 Hakeem (9th all time) [No older players] Aii. Postseason AuPM: [No older players] Bi. Goldstein RAPM / Historical Square2020 RAPM: > Hakeem (~20th all time, small sample) [No Russell, Will] Bii. Goldstein Playoff PIPM (3 years for sample size): 1994 Hakeem (16th all time) [No Russell, Will] Additional plus minus stats: C. on/off: [no older players] Additional plus minus stats: D. WOWY: Russell > Wilt > Hakeem Additional plus minus stats: E. ESPN’s RPM: [No older players] Additional plus minus stats: F. Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: (1993 Hakeem) > 1967 Wilt (7th all time)> 1962-1964 Russell (10th all time) > 1994 Hakeem (would be 14 all time) > (1964 Wilt) >= (1965 Russell)
Box score-based data Gi. Backpicks BPM: 1967 Wilt (8th all time) > (1993 Hakeem 17th all time) > (1964 Wilt) > (65 Russell) > 1994 Hakeem > (62-64 Bill Russell) Gii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: 1967 Wilt (12th all time) > 1994 Hakeem (13th all time) > (1993 Hakeem) > (1965 Bill Russell) > (1964 Wilt) > 1962/64 Russell (not top 20) Additional box score stats: Hi. BR’s BPM: (1993 Hakeem not top 20) > 1994 Hakeem [No Russell, Will] Additional box score stats: Hii. BR’s Postseason BPM: (1993 Hakeem) > 1994 Hakeem [No Russell, Will] Additional box score stats: Ii. WS/48: (1964 Wilt would be 1st all time) > 1967 Wilt (10th all time) > 1964 Russell > (1993 Hakeem) > (1965 Russell) > (1962 Russell) > 1994 Hakeem. WS/Game: (1964 Wilt) > 1967 Wilt > 1964 Russell > (1993 Hakeem) > (1965 Russell) > 1994 Hakeem > (1962 Russell) Additional box score stats: Iii. Postseason WS/48: (1964 Wilt) > (1965 Russell) > (1962 Russell) > 1967 Wilt > (1993 Hakeem) > 1994 Hakeem > 1964 Russell. Russell ~ Hakeem: As for 1994 Hakeem vs peak Russell (what year?), it’s much closer. 62 and 65 Russell barely edge out 94 Hakeem in these stats, while 64 Russell equals 94 Hakeem in these stats. If we look at a larger sample (62/64/65 Russell vs 93-95 Hakeem), they’re tied 3-3 in these stats. Do the contextual factors help us decide? 1. Scalability. Russell's clearly the more scalable player. His passing and willingness to be the "glue guy" and do "whatever it takes" on offense scales better than Hakeem's preference for ball-dominant iso scoring 2. Resilience: ? Not sure who wins here. Traditional narratives favor Hakeem as improving more in the playoffs. That said, I personally just don't know enough about how Russell changed in the playoffs. The playoff-only stats aren't conclusive. I would be inclined to say Hakeem improved more, but Russell's team had a 10-0 record in Game 7s and a 22-0 record in elimination games (https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/l81hr6/its_pretty_well_known_that_bill_russell_was_210/). That's just crazy! 3. Health. N/A 4. Defense: Are any of the metrics underrating their defense? Possibly, but I tend to say this favors Russell > Hakeem. The fact that Russell is so high above the rest in WOWY (our only plus/minus-like stat for him), while being clearly a step below in the Box Plus Minus stats makes me wonder whether BPM underrates Russell. Russell’s value comes from the defensive end more than any other all-time peak, and BPM stats tend to underrate defense, especially when we’re lacking Russell’s defensive box stats. Our more advanced stats for Hakeem that should capture defensive value better (RAPM, PIPM) don't make him seem tremendously underrated here. 5. Fit. Hard to know, given the era differences. 6. Time machine. Hakeem > Russell. I think Russell would clearly be the better defender in any era by a bit, but Hakeem's offensive advantage in future eras is pretty strong. Russell would have to change his game a fair bit, modeling it after some combination of Giannis (in transition and as a roll-man) or Draymond (with half-court passing at the elbow), and overall greatly improving his scoring efficiency. Could he do it? Well, he is Bill Russell... he was a GOAT (or near-GOAT) level athlete and basketball mind. But it's far from a given that this transition would work, or that it would work well enough to close the gap with Hakeem offensively. Let me know if people have arguments for Hakeem vs Bill Russell! I'd love to hear people's thoughts.
KG ~ Russell:
Spoiler:
Plus-minus based stats: x Ai. AuPM: 2004 KG (3rd all time) [No older players] x Aii. Postseason AuPM: 2004 Garnett (12th all time) [No older players] x Bi. Goldstein RAPM / Historical Square2020 RAPM: 2004 Garnett (1st all time) [No older players] x Bii. Goldstein Playoff PIPM (3 years for sample size): 2004 Garnett (20th all time) [No older players] x Additional plus minus stats: C. on/off: 2004 Garnett [no older players] Additional plus minus stats: D. WOWY: Russell > Garnett x Additional plus minus stats: E. ESPN’s RPM: 2004 Garnett (7th all time) [no older players] Additional plus minus stats: F. Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: 2004 Garnett (5th all time) > 1962-1964 Russell (10th all time) > (1965 Russell)
Box score-based data Gi. Backpicks BPM: 2004 Garnett (15th all time) > (65 Russell) > (62-64 Bill Russell) Gii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: (1965 Bill Russell) > 1962/64 Russell (not top 20) > 2003/04 Garnett x Additional box score stats: Hi. BR’s BPM: 2004 Garnett (13th all time) [no older players] x Additional box score stats: Hii. BR’s Postseason BPM: 2004 Garnett [no older players] Additional box score stats: Ii. WS/48: 2004 Garnett > 1964 Russell > 1965 Russell > 1962 Russell Total WS: 2004 Garnett > 1964 Russell > 1965 Russell > 1962 Russell Additional box score stats: Iii. Postseason WS/48: (1965 Russell) > (1962 Russell) > 1964 Russell > 2004 Garnett
KG and Russell are tied 1-1 in trusted stats and 3-3 in total stats. Russell wins in 2/2 postseason only stats. KG is top 3 all-time in 2 of the more trusted stats which we don’t have for Russell. Does context help? Russell is clearly more resilient at his peak. Both players have value (primarily defensive) that would be missed in box-only metrics, though Russell may improve more here. Both are healthy at their peak. KG performs much better if we value scalability and the time machine argument to the modern era. KG also had much worse fit at his peak, which may limit his impact metrics.
Both are close statistically, with lots of stats missing for Russell. The argument for Russell relies on his resilience. The argument for KG relies on portability and the time machine argument, while arguing that his poor postseason performance was caused by atrocious fit, rather than an inherent lack of skill on his part. There’s some evidence for this, since 2001 and 2008 both have better postseason metrics than 2004, but it’s hard to know just how much better the 2004 postseason would be with better fit. All in all, there’s high uncertainty for both players, and I’m not sure who to go with.
Not planning on voting, as yet, but I have to throw my hat in the ring for Jokic.
Why is it that seemingly nobody here considers how much deeper and stronger the NBA is today, vs. previous decades? Can anyone answer that one?
Nikola Jokic, 2022:
People will probably laugh, but this is the greatest all-around season I've seen. Missing the team's two greatest players, by far, in Murray and MPJ for the entire season, Jokic took a bunch of scrubs to 48 wins and a 6th Seed in the West. Probably no player in history could have taken (this year's) Nuggets to a victory over the fully healthy Warriors squad in the First Round this past season.
The league is far deeper and harder to dominate than it ever had been before. No Expansion since 2004 and a Fully Globalized NBA. Just look at these facts:
Consider: None of these guys would likely even be playing in the NBA prior to the 2010's!!
As far as Jokic's dominance, in the past 161 games (including the 2021 & 2022 Playoffs, dating back to the beginning of last season), Jokic has put up a slash line of:
27.0/12.3/7.9 (while leading all centers in steals by a huge margin) on .606 eFG% and +8.0 rTS% (while taking 596 threes as a Center).
--The only player in NBA history to put up a slash line of 27.0/12.3/7.9 in any single season is Oscar Robertson, all the way back in 61'-62', and he did it in a game that featured 127 possessions per game, playing 44 MPG.
--Jokic, on the other hand, has done this in a league averaging only 102 possessions per game, and while playing only 34 MPG.
And, Jokic has sustained this for the equivalent of two full seasons!!!
Jokic's defense was dramatically improved this year, also:
1. Russell 1964. I wouldn't be human to not include my first favorite player, watching Russell play is what got me interested in playing basketball. The GOAT defensive player having his best defensive season, setting the all-time record of 16 DWS that season; a number that just dwarfs the number put up by any player in history not named Russell. Led the league with 24.7 reb/game, 4th highest ever (behind 3 Wilt seasons). And while it is his defense that gets him this high, he also averaged 15 pts/game and finished 7th in the NBA with 4.7 assists/game. 2. Hakeem 1994. I could see the argument that his RS may have been a tad better in 93, but his 94 PS is what makes the difference for me. One of the key factors was his Finals performance in 94 against Ewing and the Knicks in which he scored 26.9 ppg compared to 23.1 ppg in his WCF loss to the Sonics. Just a tremendous 2-way player.
3. Doctor J 1976. Yes, it was in the ABA. The final year of that league before the merger in 77 and at that point, the ABA was loaded with future Hall of Famers such as David Thompson, Artis Gilmore, George Gervin, Bobby Jones and Dan Issel. No plumbers or milkmen in that group. And Dr J put up one of the best all-around seasons ever. Led the league in scoring at 29.3 ppg. Fifth in rebounding at 11.0 rpg. Seventh in assists at 5.0 apg. Third in steal at 2.5 spg. Seventh in blocks at 1.9 bpg. Tenth in field goal percentage at .507% and sixth in 3-point % at 33%. And led the league in PER, Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, WS/48, Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and Usage %. Off the top of my head, the only other player who dominated across that many aspects of the game might be 51 Mikan but we don't have any idea what his blocks or steal numbers were and I'd guess that the competition level in the 76 ABA was higher than the 51 NBA.
ty 4191 wrote:Not planning on voting, as yet, but I have to throw my hat in the ring for Jokic.
Why is it that seemingly nobody here considers how much deeper and stronger the NBA is today, vs. previous decades? Can anyone answer that one?
I have been using it as a tiebreaker but when someone dominated their older league more than the current player has I'd consider that as cancelling it out.
No doubting Jokic's offensive peak, however I consider his defense the biggest problem in a playoff series of anyone in contention for top 10, and has directly contributed to being on the wrong side of some playoff series routs. Despite Curry's defense only being average it's easier to cover it at PG. Furthermore while Jokic has been great in the playoffs including against the champion in 2022, I still prefer when someone has done it over a longer playoff run than he had in 2021 and 2022.
I can see the argument for Jokic against any old player, however I'm leaning towards putting Curry and Giannis over him, so it'd be 3rd at best.
Context: Game 5 of the 2017 Finals. The 2017 Cavs are not the best defense, but their overall playoff performance was great. By overall SRS (which account for playoff improvements from a coasting LeBron), the 2017 Cavs were better than any opponent faced by peak Russell, peak Bird, peak Hakeem, or peak Garnett.
This is around Curry’s 2nd-4th worst game out of 9 in the Conference Finals and Finals by +/- data and BPM (which are admittedly noisy on 1 game samples), so it’s far from his best game. Link:
Qualifier about terminology: I said Curry was “doubled” whenever there were 2 defenders who dedicated their primary attention and positioning to stop Curry, at the cost of leaving another Warrior open. Many of these are really hard hedges, where Curry’s primary defender goes over the screen, and the secondary defender ignores the screener to stop the Curry 3 or drive. Regardless of what we call it, the point I’m trying to make is that the defense prioritizes stopping and is willing to leave Curry’s teammates open to do so.
[1st quarter] Defense: 0:37 Okay help defense by Curry to make shot harder
1:10 Curry makes the free throw
Defense: 2:20 Great point of attack defense on irving, forces the turnover with help
Offense: 3:17 Subtle: Curry’s gravity pulls Love to him, not Klay. gets Klay Thompson the open 3 off the positioning mistake by JR
Offense: 4:07 Great off ball ankelbreaker. Gets a good look but misses
Defense: 4:35 Curry forced to zone 2 shooters. Prevents pass to the better shooter, but Cavs motion generate a good look.
Offense: 4:54 Curry KD pick and roll, Curry doubled and KD left open. Good look, KD misses
Offense: 6:25 first Curry offensive mistake. Curry’s dribble stripped, turnover
6:30 KD bad pass, stolen by LBJ
Offense: 9:15 Curry doubled, good pass to roll man, but can’t make the shot at the rim
Offense: 10:12 Curry doubled, generates open 3 point shot.
10:35 Meaningless shot from behind the basket in dead time lol. Makes foul shots
Offense: 11:15: quick pass and offbal movement generates good look Offense: 11:20: Curry doubled, pass to open Durant 3, who misses
Offense: 11:40 Curry doubled, good pass to thompson with inside position
Defense: 12:55 good defense from Curry, helps and gets the steal on LeBron.
Offense: 13:00 Defense leads to transition offense. Iso Curry gets around defender and makes the shot, with 1-3 defenders by him.
Offense: 14:25 Curry KD pick and roll, Curry soft doubled. (really a soft hedge) Then KD iso
Offense: 15:20 Curry rebound. Curry iso blows by defender, makes shot at rim
Offense: 17:00 takes long 3, misses
Offense: 17:45 Curry soft double, gets around defender and makes scoop layup
Offense: 18:07 Curry doubled, steps out of bounds, turnover. Offensive mistake
Defense: 18:40 good curry defense. Goes for steal because he knows Draymond can cover. Recovers position and forces into help defense
18:50 pushed off ball, no call.
Offense: 20:00 Curry doubled, gets some separation but misses shot
Offense: 22:03 Curry great off ball movement, completely loses his defender. Good look, draws foul. makes 2/3 free throws f
25:09 Makes 2/2 free throws for 12 points in 1st quarter.
Defense: 27:48 Active off-ball defense. Communicates, prevents screen from being disruptive, then gets in good help position near rim.
Offense: 35:44 Soft double on Curry, good pass gets KD open, forces recovery from worse man defender. KD makes shot
Offense: 37:53 Curry faces the 3 defender “wall” near the logo
Offense: 39:30, Curry KD pick and roll. First time Curry’s not doubled, and he makes the long 3.
Offense: 42:15 Curry’s 3 point gravity lets him blow by defender. Makes floater
Defense: 43:30 Goes for steal, but misses 3 point shooter makes it. Probably shouldn’t have gambled - Defensive mistake.
Offense: 43:44 Curry doubled once, doubled again, great pass to Draymond for the open corner 3
Defense: 44:05 Curry targeted on defense once, again, but it wastes almost all the shot clock and they don’t get anything. Last second shot misses, Curry rebound
Offense: 44:20 Curry doubled. HIs gravity gets KD an open 3. KD misses,
Offense: 44:30 Curry gets the rebound. Curry’s Doubled again, KD’s open again, this time it’s a made 3
Defense: 44:45 Curry’s defense forces kyrie baseline and into help defense. Kyrie miss.
Curry makes the technical free throw
49:10 not curry but this is funny - David West defends the referee, Cavs make the open 3 lol
Offense: 51:30 Classic Warriors play. Curry doubled on perimeter, good pass to rolling Dray, hockey assist to Iguodala
Offense: 51:53 Curry fantastic vision and execution with the crosscourt pass to KD for an open transition layup
52:15 makes free throws
Defense: 54:39 Curry loses rebound fight to kyrie, leads to open 3. Deffensive Mistake.
Offense: 54:50 Gets a good look shot for the 2-for-1
Offense: 55:18 Curry doubled, good pass generates the open dunk
6 doubles, 1 soft double
…[3rd quarter]
Offense: 57:34 small detail: Curry’s 3 point threat forces the switch to be easy, which gives KD the mismatch height advantage. They don’t easily switch if Curry’s not the 3 point threat he is.
Offense: 58:24 Curry KD pick and roll early in the shot clock. This catches LeBron out of position as he tries to help on Curry, and the fact that it’s so quick in the shot lock forces 2 defenders to stop middle penetration. Curry good pass to KD roll man, then hockey assist to an open Klay 3 pointer Note: compare these last two plays to how ineffective and slow the Cavs have been trying to mismatch hunt on Curry. Getting a mismatch switch onto Curry takes so much longer, wastes so much more shot lock, seems much less effective
Offense: 59:10 Curry Kd pick and roll. Curry’s doubled, gets middle penetration which forces help defense, then quick pass to draymond for the open 3. Miss, which leads too…
Offense: 59:19 offensive rebound Curry. Some Curry iso but they double him; bad pass to our Kd, relocation 3 attempt but good defense; Curry Zaza pick and roll and again gets curry doubled, for an open Klay 3 point attempt
Defense: 1:00:55 Cavs try to mismatch hunt on Curry, and even get Lebron switched onto Curry. It takes from 14 seconds to 2.5 Seconds before they get a good look, and get bailed out by a tough 3
Offense: 1:01:20 Curry doubled, great pass to Dray for a great look
Defense: 1:01:50 Cavs spend 17 seconds trying to mismatch hunt on Curry before they get anything (slightly contended 3), which LeBron rebounds and puts back
Offense: 1:03:15 Curry doubled, generates fairly open 3, which they make
Defense: 1:03:35 Curry klay unnecessary switch gives Cavs a good look. Mistake.
Offense: 1:03:46 curry iso, gets good look. 2nd defender pays him some attention but mostly stays on Durant
Offense: 1:04:03 Curry doubled, good pass to roll man, potential hockey assist to Dray but they miss the rim attempt
Offense: 1:04:50 Curry pick and roll, gets mismatch scores
Offense: 1:05:56 Curry drive gets fouled, makes both free throws. Noice how when the Cavs go on a run, the Warriors go full Curry. This matches the pattern you’d see in future years too (e.g. against the 2018 Rockets)
Defense: 1:08:28 Curry great man defense against Kyrie forces the miss.
Offense: 1:10:10 Curry KD pick and roll, Curry doubled, good pass, gets durant a good look near the basket
Offense: 1:11:20 Curry Kd pick and roll, Curry doubled, pass to Durant, Durant gets good look after short iso
Offense: 1:12:12 Curry doubled, thinks about driving, doubled again, and gets Klay the open look
Offense: 1:15:40 Curry doubled, pass to roll man, but bad 2nd pass/reception prevents the layup.
Defense: 1:16:14 Curry switches onto Lebron. Great strength to hold him back, with help ready. LeBron passes out, they try to pass back but Curry sneaks into the passing lane for the steal. In transition: fouled, puts them into penalty
1:17:00 makes free throws.
Offense: 1:18:35 Curry doubled, attracts the 3rd defender, great pass to McCaw. Generates a layup attempt, and Warriors get the putback
Offense: 1:19:45 Curry occupies 3 defenders. Later doubled, pass to McCaw with inside position, and he makes the layup
Offense 1:20:40 Curry doubled, ball knocked loose. One of the first times Curry doesn’t get the pass. Curry recovers it, 4-5 defenders near him, makes the pass to the open layup but the buzzer sounds.
12 doubles
…[4th quarter]
Offense: 1:29:22 Curry occupies 3-4 defenders, great look away pass through the defenders for the open Iguodala dunk
Offense: 1:31:35 Curry drives past his defender, gets the layup through 2 more defenders doubling him.
Offense: 1:32:10 Curry KD pick and roll, Curry doubled, pass to Durant, KD makes the shot over the smaller help defender
Defense: 1:32:32 Curry pretty good man defense, Kyrie with better offense, help defense works.
Offense: 1:33:04 Curry gets good look, but misses
Defense: 1:33:20 Good positioning for the long rebound off the 3
Offense: 1:34:54 Curry iso on Love, briefly doubled, gets by. Contact to Curry’s head, no call, Curry makes it anyway
Offense: 1:35:15 Curry off ball movement in transition gets position for open layup. Good pass from Durant and the Warriors are up by 14
Defense: 1:35:25 Curry sneaks into passing lane to get the steal. Good steal without gambling
Defense: 1:38:20 Curry a split second behind JR’s off ball movement. foul on JR smith for free throws. Mistake.
Offense: 1:39:25 Curry draymond pick and roll, curry doubled, pass to Dray, hockey assist for the iguodala dunk
Offense: 1:40:37 Curry good look, misses.
Offense: 1:41:10 Curry Kd disagree on the play. KD calls for an iso, Curry gives in, KD fumbles it once, twice, then is out of position in transition on the Irving defense
Offense: 1:41:40 Crowd starts to celebrate, Curry iso. Crazy dribble move and Curry’s shot seals the deal.
note: 4 doubles + 1 soft double this quarter
Takeaways: Possessions I tracked where Curry was actively involved: 55 offensive possessions, 20 defensive possessions
Curry’s offense demands tremendous defensive attention which drives the Warriors' GOAT-level offense: I think people underestimate just how much defensive attention Curry demands. Two or more defenders left another Warriors open to focus on Curry in ~30-34 out of these 55 possessions, in the form of hard doubles, soft doubles, hard hedges, triple/quadrouple teams and defensive walls. That’s more than 50% of offensive possessions when Curry was actively involved! I’m not sure if KD received even 5 doubles when Curry was on the court.
In these possessions, the Warriors scored 38 points (for 1.12 points/possession), with 34 of them clearly aided by the double. Of the 16 possessions that didn’t generate points, only 3 ended with mistakes -- the other 13 generated good looks (and we might expect more of these good looks to go in if we took a larger sample). These possessions don’t even include subtler cases where Curry’s off-ball gravity help generate an open look, such as at 3:17.
Does Curry overperform in this game? I’d argue no. As I said at the top, this is far from Curry’s best game in the playoffs. And this kind of defensive attention is commonplace for Curry over KD. In the 2018 Finals, Curry was doubled 2000% more often than KD (Yes, you read that right.. two-thousand percent more than KD).
Broader picture: The 2017 Warriors are commonly considered the greatest offensive playoff team of all time. People usually credit Durant for this. I think we should question this assumption. Durant’s scoring did help when Curry was on the bench, but the film analysis shows Curry is clearly the driver of the offense. The plays are run through Curry and the open looks are generated predominantly by Curry.
People like to say that Curry’s a defensive liability. I see him as a positive. In the 20 possessions where Curry was heavily involved, he made 5 mistakes (2 fouls, 1 rebounding miss, 1 unnecessary gamble, 1 unnecessary switch). Curry played good defense in the other 15 possessions, including 10 where he directly contributed to the end of the possession (e.g. 4 forced turnovers or good steals without gambling and 4 cases of good man defense leading to a miss). The Cavs did not benefit that much hunting Curry in isolation; they got good looks in some plays, but just as they often wasted a lot of time forcing the switch and were left with a late-clock heave.
Dr Positivity wrote:I can see the argument for Jokic against any old player, however I'm leaning towards putting Curry and Giannis over him, so it'd be 3rd at best.
Why would you take Curry and Giannis over Jokic 2020-2021 through 2021-2022 (including the playoffs)?
As I've said, I think Curry is particularly challenging because different seasons stand out depending on how you look at them. I'm not particularly interested in defending to the death that '16-17 is his best year, but it does represent him being fundamentally solid throughout the year while also being the MVP of the greatest team in history.
And while I don't think I'm going to sway many people on that "greatest team" thing who are just focused on "did you win the chip?" and "how little help did you have?", I would emphasize that being the MVP of the best team ever is something that normal sports people would generally see as a really big deal.
I'll switch over to the first chip as it's my perception that that's more what people are focused on and there are good reasons why they are. Honestly, I don't have any reason to think that Olajuwon just learned how to do the things he did in '94-95 that year, despite the fact that that post-season is where we saw it all in its full glory, and I do think that at this stage of his career the Dream was losing a bit of his defensive dreaminess each year.
3. Magic Johnson '86-87
Just going to list the season that I think everyone would pick here and focus more on the comparison with Larry Bird ('85-86). I go back and forth on these two.
I think that if you take Bird's offensive and defensive peaks together, he probably gets the nod over Magic, but Bird's offensive assurance rose as his motor dropped. You could say some of the same stuff for Magic, but the impact of his defensive motor in those early years wasn't like Bird's.
I've said many times on these boards that Bird is a guy who seems like he might have the most impressive collection of basketball talents we've ever seen. His shooting ability combined with his seemingly supernatural anticipation, court awareness, and improvisational ability anywhere on the court with or without the ball, seems like an unmatched combo.
But in the end, I feel like Magic exceled more at solving the game. Taking control, and then making the efficient play with it. And moreover, this wasn't just team context. This was what Magic insisted upon, and in doing so effectively became the first helio among modern players.
Wanted to add:
I think Julius Erving in '75-76 has a strong case over frankly all the people I have on my ballot. I'm a bit more in love with Magic & Bird's game than Dr. J at this point, but '75-76 was a hell of a year.
Beyond that, probably Kevin Garnett & Bill Russell are the next guys on my mind.
With Garnett something holding him back is my interpretation of Peak as having to do with your actual effectiveness on the floor, and while Garnett was absolutely an MVP worthy player in '03-04, I think he could have been considerably more valuable with more sophisticated coaching tactics on both sides of the floor.
With Russell I've talked about my concerns and I'm honestly not sure when I'll end up picking him. It's possible I'll have him over Garnett, but it's also possible there are other players I haven't mentioned I'll put ahead of him. Breaks my heart, because I respect Russell's achievements so much, but this is what I get when I try to honor the progression of the game.
01 Erving 75-76: 28.7 PER | .569 TS% | 110 TS+ | 17.7 WS | .262 WS/48 01 Erving 75-76 Playoffs?!?: 32.0 PER | .610 TS% | 3.7 WS | .321 WS/48 [a peak so high the NBA absorbed a whole other league to get this guy under their banner. Doctor turned in a top tier regular season, then followed it up with one of thee largest postseason efficiency increases of all time.]
02 Magic 86-87: 27.0 PER | .602 TS% | 112 TS+ | 15.9 WS | .263 WS/48 02 Magic 86-87 Playoffs?!?: 26.2 PER | .607 TS% | 3.7 WS | .265 WS/48 [topped the league in assists with career best scoring volume en route to 65-17 regular season, 8.32 SRS & a smooth 15-3 postseason cruise. Peak Magic Showtime.]
03 Larry 85-86: 25.6 PER | .580 TS% | 107 TS+ | 15.8 WS | .244 WS/48 03 Larry 85-86 Playoffs?!?: 23.9 PER | .615 TS% | 4.2 WS | .263 WS/48 [went back & forth on who to place higher between Magic & Larry, but ultimately gave the edge to Johnson on the strength of a stronger regular season.]
Dr Positivity wrote:I can see the argument for Jokic against any old player, however I'm leaning towards putting Curry and Giannis over him, so it'd be 3rd at best.
Why would you take Curry and Giannis over Jokic 2020-2021 through 2021-2022 (including the playoffs)?
For myself, in a nutshell, defense.
I voted Curry over Jokic this year for POY because I'm just more confident in my ability to build a great playoff team on both sides of the floor with Curry than Jokic.
With Giannis, I won't say I'm super-confident that I can build a great playoff offense with him, but I do see him as one of the three great playoff defenders I've seen in the current age (along with Green & AD), and that goes a long way.
EDIT: As I say that though, I think you could make an argument that '86 Bird and any Magic year would struggle to make great playoff defenses today too. It's possible I should have Jokic ahead of them.
Dr Positivity wrote:I can see the argument for Jokic against any old player, however I'm leaning towards putting Curry and Giannis over him, so it'd be 3rd at best.
Why would you take Curry and Giannis over Jokic 2020-2021 through 2021-2022 (including the playoffs)?
For myself, in a nutshell, defense.
I voted Curry over Jokic this year for POY because I'm just more confident in my ability to build a great playoff team on both sides of the floor with Curry than Jokic.
With Giannis, I won't say I'm super-confident that I can build a great playoff offense with him, but I do see him as one of the three great playoff defenders I've seen in the current age (along with Green & AD), and that goes a long way.
EDIT: As I say that though, I think you could make an argument that '86 Bird and any Magic year would struggle to make great playoff defenses today too. It's possible I should have Jokic ahead of them.
Could you articulate your concerns with building a great playoff team on both sides of the floor with Jokic?
Edit: Btw, on a somewhat theoretical level, I see it as a possibility that if you want to build the best possible offense you would choose Jokic as your first pick (both because he occupies the center position where the standard for offensive output is lower (also leaving the more valuable offensive positions free for valuable contributors) as well as because I believe his playstyle can accommodate perfectly almost any ancillary talent. Therefore, there might be more leeway concerning his supposedly problematic defense.
Dr Positivity wrote:I can see the argument for Jokic against any old player, however I'm leaning towards putting Curry and Giannis over him, so it'd be 3rd at best.
Why would you take Curry and Giannis over Jokic 2020-2021 through 2021-2022 (including the playoffs)?
For myself, in a nutshell, defense.
I voted Curry over Jokic this year for POY because I'm just more confident in my ability to build a great playoff team on both sides of the floor with Curry than Jokic.
With Giannis, I won't say I'm super-confident that I can build a great playoff offense with him, but I do see him as one of the three great playoff defenders I've seen in the current age (along with Green & AD), and that goes a long way.
EDIT: As I say that though, I think you could make an argument that '86 Bird and any Magic year would struggle to make great playoff defenses today too. It's possible I should have Jokic ahead of them.
I think Bird would actually be fine if he played the 4 largely (could even guard some 3s). Not too concerned about him.
Dr Positivity wrote:I can see the argument for Jokic against any old player, however I'm leaning towards putting Curry and Giannis over him, so it'd be 3rd at best.
Why would you take Curry and Giannis over Jokic 2020-2021 through 2021-2022 (including the playoffs)?
While I still think Giannis has some notable limitations in the playoffs with his offense, he has improved quite a bit in that regard the last few years. His series against the Celtics vaunted D without Middleton especially is quite impressive. And as such, I think his offensive limitations aren't as bad as Jokic's defensive limitations in the playoffs.
Curry has been inconsistent but at his best he's still a gamebreaker offensively in a way that even Jokic isn't and is ok defensively at a less important position.
Although this arguably isn’t his peak on O or D I think it’s his best combination of scoring playmaking defense and portability. Hakeem’s RS metrics don’t look the best but he’s one of the biggest PO risers ever and his multi year PO metrics (I prefer multi year over single year metrics in the PO) look significantly better and they make a top 4 placement look much more reasonable. In 1994 he was a much more willing passer and didn’t miss very many basic reads like he did in the previous years (and made the occasional advanced read as well) and he was a great scorer as always and while he regressed as a defender he was still very clearly and all time defender and I don’t know how many defensive seasons there are better than 94 Hakeem outside of his own and BR’s. He was also a better Off ball player and more willing off the ball in 1994. I would like to watch a little bit more film to confirm if I’m overrating him but I think that 4 is a very fair spot for his peak
8. 2016 Steph Curry
Now you can use 17 as his peak if you’re gonna tax 16 for the PO injury but 16 clearly has better shot making and the years aren’t much different everywhere else. 16 Steph curry is a clear t4 offensive peak ever. What makes Steph such an amazing player is that he gives you the best off ball movement ever while being the greatest shooter ever and him being an elite on ball player makes not only his offense the most unique style ever but also how defenses have to guard him. He’s being doubled at half court and you have to keep 2 guys on him regardless of if he has the ball which makes shot creating for him very easy (**** he’s creating shots without ever touching the ball). Being the best off ball creator ever while still being elite on the ball makes him a t10 playmaker Imo and I don’t even need to go into how he’s a t10 scorer ever. The 30 PPG on +10 rTS (and being 1 of 2 players ever to lead the league in scoring rate and efficiency) speaks for itself. While he isn’t an elite defender he has a good motor (which is crazy for how active he is on the ball) and has good off ball awareness. He’s a very solid team defender but would get “hunted” on the ball due to how good the rest of the warriors defenders were. I feel like him being a slight + on D is very fair. I like the 8 spot for him but could see him in the tier up or down depending on how high you are on his scoring and defense (and how much you value on ball playmaking)
9. 1986 Larry Bird
Larry bird has a very interesting playstyle. He’s one of the few ATG players to prefer off ball to on ball (and with good reason as he’s one of the best off ball movers ever). He’s one of the pioneers of the 3ball and one of the best shooter of the 20th century. Bird’s an elite scorer (averaged 25 IA PTS/75 on +4.1 rTS in the RS from 84-87) that garnered a lot of attention from the defense thanks to him being one of the best floor spacers of the entire decade (took the second most 3PA from 80-89 despite missing almost the entire 89 season). Bird didn’t have a very good handle and wasn’t athletic so he didn’t apply much rim pressure but he had a deep bag and was really good at faking out defenders and getting open jumpers that way. He was much better off the ball than on and new where to go to get open even tho he wasn’t athletic he was very smart. Although he’s elite as a His best trait is easily his passing ability (specifically his touch passing). Where he lacked in applying rim pressure as a scorer he made up for with his elite rim passing. He was great at finding cutters and rollers and was able to hit passes through tight windows easily. While bird doesn’t have the same gravity as most other all time greats, his all time passing vision was able to help him still be a top 10 playmaker ever as he was able to essentially create advantages where there weren’t any with his passes. Defensively this certainly isn’t his peak but he’s still good. Bird was a really solid post defender and was used more as a weakside rim protector / interior help defender since he was too slow to guard most perimeter players but he was a really solid interior defender. The Celtics generally had good defenses and he was a contributor to those (although clearly not the teams best defender)
Bird does have a bit of a reputation as a playoff dropper because of years like 85 and 87 where he had playoff injuries but i think he retains his regular season value mostly. I could see him over Steph depending on how good you think his O is (or if you’re low on Steph) but I could also see him below the guys in my 10-12 range.
Dr Positivity wrote:I can see the argument for Jokic against any old player, however I'm leaning towards putting Curry and Giannis over him, so it'd be 3rd at best.
Why would you take Curry and Giannis over Jokic 2020-2021 through 2021-2022 (including the playoffs)?
I think Jokic is level with Curry on offense at best (I'd still go Curry), and defensively I see him a bigger issue than Curry. Maybe in the regular season Jokic had bigger defensive impact than Curry, but I still don't love him in a playoff series against guards trying to take advantage of him on that end.
Giannis and Jokic would otherwise but close I just like that Giannis put together a sample size of 4 rounds of games in his playoff run while Jokic was 1 series and a sweep 2nd round last year, and 5 games this year.
Dr Positivity wrote:I can see the argument for Jokic against any old player, however I'm leaning towards putting Curry and Giannis over him, so it'd be 3rd at best.
Why would you take Curry and Giannis over Jokic 2020-2021 through 2021-2022 (including the playoffs)?
I think Jokic is level with Curry on offense at best (I'd still go Curry), and defensively I see him a bigger issue than Curry. Maybe in the regular season Jokic had bigger defensive impact than Curry, but I still don't love him in a playoff series against guards trying to take advantage of him on that end.
Giannis and Jokic would otherwise but close I just like that Giannis put together a sample size of 4 rounds of games in his playoff run while Jokic was 1 series and a sweep 2nd round last year, and 5 games this year.
What is the statistical evidence for curry>jokic offensively in 2022?
