Where did Jokic rank defensively among starting centers last season?

[MyUniBroDavis]

ESPN rpm changed their formula so it’s no longer public and it’s honestly in the same category as raptor even if it’s not that bad, it’s still pretty bad.

It’s not as if you can point to a stat and say X is a definitive ranking, luck adjusted RAPM is usually something I like in context, even if the luck adjustment can be questionable at times, but Jokic’s issue is that his defense has been all time bad for 3 playoff runs in a row more than his regular season defense, and then of course there’s just evaluating a players skillset, I made a post on it in the peaks project but yeah there’s an argument for jokic as a pretty great regular season defender but the issues are with him being targetable in playoff matchups. Raw on-off data used in context, just actually knowing how they play etc etc

I think had jokic played in a different era this may be a non issue, and it’s not that the teams should be expected to be a good defense with him per say, but his 2020-2022 defense by most metrics have been a positive throughout, while his playoff defense otoh based on everything seems to be closer to unplayably bad in that span.

While it’s fair to say that maybe he changes that trend, it would be one thing if that was just the Warriors series, but this has been like the third year in a row where it’s been a clear issue

If you tell me player X is an all time great RS defender, the bill russell of his time, and then reverts to a league average defender in the playoffs, that’s a 60th percentile defender ish to me. If Gobert was genuinely exposed in certain matchups I’d lower him a crazy amount (he’s good in any matchup just his impact can be lowered a lot). Likewise the other way around also applies, which is why I still think guys like giannis, embiid, Dray and healthy AD are the best among defenders in the league probably

You said he has been bad defensively 3rd year in the row. Can you explain your opinion in: Utah series, Clipps series, Lakers series 3 years ago, and Portland series 2 years ago.

Am I missing something? The only time Denver didn't underperform defensively was in LAC series, but it's not like they shut down Clippers offense either. Jazz, Lakers and Portland all destroyed Nuggets defense.

On/off

2020
Vs Utah
120.4 off rtg 125.5 def rtg. 263 minutes
102 off rtg 99.4 def rtg. 78 minutes

Vs Clippers
112 off rtg 108.9 def rtg. 264 minutes
91.3 off rtg 100.6 def rtg. 72 minutes

Vs Lakers
109.8 off rtg 117.7 def rtg. 167 minutes
116.4 off rtg 115.2 def rtg. 73 minutes

2021
Vs Portland
121.6 off rtg. 124.5 def rtg. 211 minutes
121.1 off rtg. 110.5 def rtg. 87 minutes

Vs suns
103.2 off rtg. 121.8 def rtg. 134 minutes
112.3 off rtg. 119.8 def rtg. 58 minutes

2022
Vs Warriors
110.0 off rtg. 122.5 def rtg. 171 minutes
120.6 off rtg. 111.1 def rtg. 69 minutes

So like, I think the issue for me is two things

First, he is consistently a negative defensively for them. As good as he’s been in the playoffs in only 1 series in the past 3 years have they overall won the minutes hes been in the floor, and in 4/6 series they’ve won the non jokic minutes, mainly based off defense

Two, I can kind of excuse being a negative in defense when it’s a case like 2016 bron vs the raptors, when it’s a case of they played elite D with him off the floor and elite D with him on the floor as well, but that really isn’t the case here, they’ve fairly consistently been a league worst type defense with Jokic on the floor while only the suns series and the Lakers series they were on that scale.

I can get saying maybe this is a noise thing sure, which is why in the peaks project I said this is a we need more data kind of thing, but it’s 6 series in a row now with the latest one being probably the worst in this regard since Mitchell went off, and if this continues it’s worth re-evaluating his defense if it’s such a negative in the postseason

Mainly he just sucks in space and defending the rim in space, if he gets position he’s good and he’s great at drop coverage and honestly decent at blitzing, but teams that know how to draw out a blitz and have the personnel to do so, essentially can force out a switch and attack him, really hurt him and a lot of teams can do that now

I don’t think he’d be such a negative in other eras and we have seen other guys that aren’t bad defenders for typical centers be unplayable bad defensively in certain matchups as well, so this isn’t a jokic thing only, but it would help if he was a great rim protector to mitigate it. Like think of how much gobert’s impact defensively drops in some matchups despite him being relatively switchy and and obviously his rim protection go crazy


Another thing that isn’t a negative but probably overstates stuff is I know jokic varies his p and r defense a bit and has freedom to do so, which will boost his RS a bit, which is fine but most teams just kind of run the same p and r coverage throughout, other than like the heat and bucks who practice other coverages rather than heavy gameplan for it.

It’s not a negative at all but we kind of see how much some team and players improve when they start varying coverages more (AD especially) which is why I don’t really care about RS defense if you’re able to make the playoffs pretty easily. Otoh it’s a positive he can do so at a pretty high level off his bball iq alone

There are eras where jokic remains a strong positive in the playoffs even with weak ish rim protection, and maybe he does better next run, it just hasn’t panned out that way as of yet, but he has good iq and good hands and decent positioning so there’s obviously a pathway towards that

[BelgradeNugget]

ESPN rpm changed their formula so it’s no longer public and it’s honestly in the same category as raptor even if it’s not that bad, it’s still pretty bad.

It’s not as if you can point to a stat and say X is a definitive ranking, luck adjusted RAPM is usually something I like in context, even if the luck adjustment can be questionable at times, but Jokic’s issue is that his defense has been all time bad for 3 playoff runs in a row more than his regular season defense, and then of course there’s just evaluating a players skillset, I made a post on it in the peaks project but yeah there’s an argument for jokic as a pretty great regular season defender but the issues are with him being targetable in playoff matchups. Raw on-off data used in context, just actually knowing how they play etc etc

I think had jokic played in a different era this may be a non issue, and it’s not that the teams should be expected to be a good defense with him per say, but his 2020-2022 defense by most metrics have been a positive throughout, while his playoff defense otoh based on everything seems to be closer to unplayably bad in that span.

While it’s fair to say that maybe he changes that trend, it would be one thing if that was just the Warriors series, but this has been like the third year in a row where it’s been a clear issue

If you tell me player X is an all time great RS defender, the bill russell of his time, and then reverts to a league average defender in the playoffs, that’s a 60th percentile defender ish to me. If Gobert was genuinely exposed in certain matchups I’d lower him a crazy amount (he’s good in any matchup just his impact can be lowered a lot). Likewise the other way around also applies, which is why I still think guys like giannis, embiid, Dray and healthy AD are the best among defenders in the league probably

You said he has been bad defensively 3rd year in the row. Can you explain your opinion in: Utah series, Clipps series, Lakers series 3 years ago, and Portland series 2 years ago.

Am I missing something? The only time Denver didn't underperform defensively was in LAC series, but it's not like they shut down Clippers offense either. Jazz, Lakers and Portland all destroyed Nuggets defense.

Maybe you are missing something. In Utah series Denver's defense was terible before Gary Harris come back from injury. After that their defense was good. Jokic was there before and after, one good POA defender made all difference. In game 7 Utah scored 78 pts. In Clippers series their defense was good. In Lakers series I wouldn't even comment, election year in US, BLM, kneeling and all of that, LeBron as good citizens got the ring, while Jokic was in foul trouble whole series because of offensive fouls. Whenever Denver had solid defensive guards their defense wasn't a problem. Last year they went against Curry and Klay with Barton and Morris on defense and still played 3 competitive games

[70sFan]

You said he has been bad defensively 3rd year in the row. Can you explain your opinion in: Utah series, Clipps series, Lakers series 3 years ago, and Portland series 2 years ago.

Am I missing something? The only time Denver didn't underperform defensively was in LAC series, but it's not like they shut down Clippers offense either. Jazz, Lakers and Portland all destroyed Nuggets defense.

Maybe you are missing something. In Utah series Denver's defense was terible before Gary Harris come back from injury. After that their defense was good. Jokic was there before and after, one good POA defender made all difference. In game 7 Utah scored 78 pts. In Clippers series their defense was good. In Lakers series I wouldn't even comment, election year in US, BLM, kneeling and all of that, LeBron as good citizens got the ring, while Jokic was in foul trouble whole series because of offensive fouls. Whenever Denver had solid defensive guards their defense wasn't a problem. Last year they went against Curry and Klay with Barton and Morris on defense and still played 3 competitive games

I mean, MyUniBroDavis just posted numbers and they don't look good at all. Denver defense has been bad in the playoffs for the last 3 years and they are actually better when Jokic isn't on the floor. Sample of size isn't massive, so I don't want to take it for granted, but it would be nice to show any counterarguments if you feel different.

You said me to look at these series and Jokic didn't look good in any of them (on defense strictly, he's been amazing offensively). Again, maybe I am missing something but your reply doesn't show anything that could fundamentally change my view on this subject.

[BelgradeNugget]

You said he has been bad defensively 3rd year in the row. Can you explain your opinion in: Utah series, Clipps series, Lakers series 3 years ago, and Portland series 2 years ago.

Am I missing something? The only time Denver didn't underperform defensively was in LAC series, but it's not like they shut down Clippers offense either. Jazz, Lakers and Portland all destroyed Nuggets defense.

On/off

2020
Vs Utah
120.4 off rtg 125.5 def rtg. 263 minutes
102 off rtg 99.4 def rtg. 78 minutes

Vs Clippers
112 off rtg 108.9 def rtg. 264 minutes
91.3 off rtg 100.6 def rtg. 72 minutes

Vs Lakers
109.8 off rtg 117.7 def rtg. 167 minutes
116.4 off rtg 115.2 def rtg. 73 minutes

2021
Vs Portland
121.6 off rtg. 124.5 def rtg. 211 minutes
121.1 off rtg. 110.5 def rtg. 87 minutes

Vs suns
103.2 off rtg. 121.8 def rtg. 134 minutes
112.3 off rtg. 119.8 def rtg. 58 minutes

2022
Vs Warriors
110.0 off rtg. 122.5 def rtg. 171 minutes
120.6 off rtg. 111.1 def rtg. 69 minutes

So like, I think the issue for me is two things

First, he is consistently a negative defensively for them. As good as he’s been in the playoffs in only 1 series in the past 3 years have they overall won the minutes hes been in the floor, and in 4/6 series they’ve won the non jokic minutes, mainly based off defense

Two, I can kind of excuse being a negative in defense when it’s a case like 2016 bron vs the raptors, when it’s a case of they played elite D with him off the floor and elite D with him on the floor as well, but that really isn’t the case here, they’ve fairly consistently been a league worst type defense with Jokic on the floor while only the suns series and the Lakers series they were on that scale.

I can get saying maybe this is a noise thing sure, which is why in the peaks project I said this is a we need more data kind of thing, but it’s 6 series in a row now with the latest one being probably the worst in this regard since Mitchell went off, and if this continues it’s worth re-evaluating his defense if it’s such a negative in the postseason

Mainly he just sucks in space and defending the rim in space, if he gets position he’s good and he’s great at drop coverage and honestly decent at blitzing, but teams that know how to draw out a blitz and have the personnel to do so, essentially can force out a switch and attack him, really hurt him and a lot of teams can do that now

I don’t think he’d be such a negative in other eras and we have seen other guys that aren’t bad defenders for typical centers be unplayable bad defensively in certain matchups as well, so this isn’t a jokic thing only, but it would help if he was a great rim protector to mitigate it. Like think of how much gobert’s impact defensively drops in some matchups despite him being relatively switchy and and obviously his rim protection go crazy


Another thing that isn’t a negative but probably overstates stuff is I know jokic varies his p and r defense a bit and has freedom to do so, which will boost his RS a bit, which is fine but most teams just kind of run the same p and r coverage throughout, other than like the heat and bucks who practice other coverages rather than heavy gameplan for it.

It’s not a negative at all but we kind of see how much some team and players improve when they start varying coverages more (AD especially) which is why I don’t really care about RS defense if you’re able to make the playoffs pretty easily. Otoh it’s a positive he can do so at a pretty high level off his bball iq alone

There are eras where jokic remains a strong positive in the playoffs even with weak ish rim protection, and maybe he does better next run, it just hasn’t panned out that way as of yet, but he has good iq and good hands and decent positioning so there’s obviously a pathway towards that

One question. If they lose 3 games by 20 pts and win 4 by 5 they win series right. Chack results of games in those series and you will find all answer to you need to know. By this metrics it looks like if Nuggets didn't have Jokic in Jazz, Clipps or Portland series they would have swept them and maybe won some champions by now.

[BelgradeNugget]

Am I missing something? The only time Denver didn't underperform defensively was in LAC series, but it's not like they shut down Clippers offense either. Jazz, Lakers and Portland all destroyed Nuggets defense.

Maybe you are missing something. In Utah series Denver's defense was terible before Gary Harris come back from injury. After that their defense was good. Jokic was there before and after, one good POA defender made all difference. In game 7 Utah scored 78 pts. In Clippers series their defense was good. In Lakers series I wouldn't even comment, election year in US, BLM, kneeling and all of that, LeBron as good citizens got the ring, while Jokic was in foul trouble whole series because of offensive fouls. Whenever Denver had solid defensive guards their defense wasn't a problem. Last year they went against Curry and Klay with Barton and Morris on defense and still played 3 competitive games

I mean, MyUniBroDavis just posted numbers and they don't look good at all. Denver defense has been bad in the playoffs for the last 3 years and they are actually better when Jokic isn't on the floor. Sample of size isn't massive, so I don't want to take it for granted, but it would be nice to show any counterarguments if you feel different.

You said me to look at these series and Jokic didn't look good in any of them (on defense strictly, he's been amazing offensively). Again, maybe I am missing something but your reply doesn't show anything that could fundamentally change my view on this subject.

Numbers show that Nuggets are better with him off the floor, so it means they would have beaten those teams easier witouth him, right. For some strange reason in every PO series Nuggets get blown away in at least 2 games before Malone makes some adjustments finaly. So again if you play 48 minutes par game and win 4 games by 1 po each, and lose 3 games by 20 you will be -57 in +-, your off/deff rating will be bad, but you win series. In POs games are like tennis in 3 sets, point diferencijal in each set is not important, just number of sets won. So if you accept that he is the best RS defender in the NBA as some advanced stats show, I will accept that he is unplayable defensively in POs. But the truth is somewhere in between you need context with stats

[BelgradeNugget]

One question to everyone. Some people declared Gobert unplayable in POs because some teams forced switching him on guards that exploited those machups. Utah for some strange reason didn't help him in those situations. Whenever center swiches on guard, guard switches on center, right? What happens when Curry switches on Jokic. Will he be left alone on the post? Is he unplayable now? Or help will come. Why is ok to help guard on center but not to help center on guard?

[MyUniBroDavis]

One question to everyone. Some people declared Gobert unplayable in POs because some teams forced switching him on guards that exploited those machups. Utah for some strange reason didn't help him in those situations. Whenever center swiches on guard, guard switches on center, right? What happens when Curry switches on Jokic. Will he be left alone on the post? Is he unplayable now? Or help will come. Why is ok to help guard on center but not to help center on guard?

So there’s validity to the claim that the defense isn’t as bad in the second half of series, in that scale 3 are really all timers in that regard (jazz/Portland/suns), the Clippers series was a large negative still but they just did well both on and off, the Lakers series is a positive and the Warriors series is a mild negative

At the same time now we’re dealing with such small sample sizes as series it’s hard to make much of it, on one hand you can argue 2021 was his bad defensive year

Otoh, cutting a series in half both, is a bit much at least when we are talking about defense going from horrendous to below average (I think there’s more validity if it’s figuring something out and becoming elite, vs become playable)

And in terms of on off data and stuff like that taking individual 2-3 game samples is to the point where a single run either way effects it so much, for example game by game he’s a huge positive defensively in g3 a huge negative in g4 and a mild negative in g5.

And from a series to series basis in at least two of the series, we have the famous Clippers collapse, and the Lakers notoriously dont adjust on offense (and aren’t really a team that can attack jokic outside of Him not being able to guard AD anyway without any guards that attack drop or switches very well), their adjustment is more stopping teams from packing the paint which isn’t really something that concerns jokic all too much

As a whole even taking second half data it’s a situation where he struggled against the r teams he faced that had quick guards that attack p and r coverages well and you can’t drop against it, it looks a bit better against the Warriors but it’s hard to put stock into it given the context was so volatile and at the end of the day if we want to look at net rtg literally like that (we shouldn’t) we then have 3 games where he’s unplayably bad defensively 1 where he’s great and 1 where he’s relatively neutral (-0.9).

I don’t think that makes much sense, like I said maybe I could vouch for it if it’s a situation where he becomes like, a good defender to a fantastic one as the series goes on, but him going from horrendous to below average isn’t going to change my opinion all too much, especially when contextually I feel it’s more so what his opponents didn’t do rather than what malone did do, at least in 2020

Otoh, I’m not calling jokic the worst defender in nba history in the playoffs, I’m saying as it stands he’s a solid to great defender in the RS and ages been a substantial negative one in the playoffs, especially in certain matchups. Otoh, if he played like, the bucks, I’d assume it’s not as apparent (might be a bad example)

Also centers are harder to hid defensively, since they usually have the burden to help in the first place, Curry is bad on switches too but he’s pretty good at other areas and historically has made up for it, and beyond that it’s not to the same extent where it jumps out of the screen or his results noticeably are bad, and he’s really good at forcing guys to help whereas jokic on an island gets blown by directly a more

I don’t call Gobert unplayable more so his impact is lessened, but it’s the nature of modern nba that non versatile switchy defenders aren’t as impactful in the playoffs as in the regular season, even this Gobert whose an all time talent in so many ways this heavily effects him