Bill Simmons' "Trade Value List", 2022 edition

[Godymas]

Tyrese Haliburton is way too low, he probably only put him there because Domas Sabonis was the trade that got it done irl, but Haliburton is a potential franchise PG on a rookie contract, better than Maxey, definitely better than Herb Jones even if Jones still has potential. Haliburton is literally 2 years into the league and he's playing like an All Star. Also Haliburton is YOUNGER than Herb Jones.

Desmond Bane is too low, Bane plays at an All Star level, he's built but stretches the floor at an elite level, dude's gonna make an All Star team, has All NBA potential. I'd value Bane over guys like Brunson, Marcus Smart

[Almond2Oak]

The list makes virtually no sense outside of Top 5, unles you’re entire premise is not winning as a franchise. In no terms am I not trading Tatum for Bron. Long term Tatum is value is “higher” but idgaf, it’s about the now. If I put Bron on this current C’s team, do I have a better odds of winning a title? Same goes for Suns, I’ll dump Booker in a Qk minute for Bron or a healthy Kawahi…. How the hell AD is even where he is makes negative 0.00 sense. The reality is, this list is a hot take on a hot plate due to so many things.

[leolozon]

The list makes virtually no sense outside of Top 5, unles you’re entire premise is not winning as a franchise. In no terms am I not trading Tatum for Bron. Long term Tatum is value is “higher” but idgaf, it’s about the now. If I put Bron on this current C’s team, do I have a better odds of winning a title? Same goes for Suns, I’ll dump Booker in a Qk minute for Bron or a healthy Kawahi…. How the hell AD is even where he is makes negative 0.00 sense. The reality is, this list is a hot take on a hot plate due to so many things.

I would never trade Tatum or Booker for Lebron or Kawhi, and I'm pretty sure most people think the same. If Kawhi was healthy it could be a conversation.

[Almond2Oak]

The list makes virtually no sense outside of Top 5, unles you’re entire premise is not winning as a franchise. In no terms am I not trading Tatum for Bron. Long term Tatum is value is “higher” but idgaf, it’s about the now. If I put Bron on this current C’s team, do I have a better odds of winning a title? Same goes for Suns, I’ll dump Booker in a Qk minute for Bron or a healthy Kawahi…. How the hell AD is even where he is makes negative 0.00 sense. The reality is, this list is a hot take on a hot plate due to so many things.

I would never trade Tatum or Booker for Lebron or Kawhi, and I'm pretty sure most people think the same. If Kawhi was healthy it could be a conversation.

The point is to win, in his current state. Do you believe Booker is leading the Suns to a title or Bron. He’s failed to do so multiple years now with an aging CP3. He’s now losing Ayton, replacing him with nothing. If I put Bron on Suns roster last year, who’s going further? Same as a healthy 2x champ in KL. Yes Booker value is higher because he’s younger and will generate a longer profit margin but does Booker get you a ring or a spot at the table? Nothing is guaranteed but short term results are better then long term “value”… ‘ceiling’ is another word for unemployed. Simmons is valuing things that don’t matter and it’s why he won’t win a title with this logic.

[leolozon]

The list makes virtually no sense outside of Top 5, unles you’re entire premise is not winning as a franchise. In no terms am I not trading Tatum for Bron. Long term Tatum is value is “higher” but idgaf, it’s about the now. If I put Bron on this current C’s team, do I have a better odds of winning a title? Same goes for Suns, I’ll dump Booker in a Qk minute for Bron or a healthy Kawahi…. How the hell AD is even where he is makes negative 0.00 sense. The reality is, this list is a hot take on a hot plate due to so many things.

I would never trade Tatum or Booker for Lebron or Kawhi, and I'm pretty sure most people think the same. If Kawhi was healthy it could be a conversation.

The point is to win, in his current state. Do you believe Booker is leading the Suns to a title or Bron. He’s failed to do so multiple years now with an aging CP3. He’s now losing Ayton, replacing him with nothing. If I put Bron on Suns roster last year, who’s going further? Same as a healthy 2x champ in KL. Yes Booker value is higher because he’s younger and will generate a longer profit margin but does Booker get you a ring or a spot at the table? Nothing is guaranteed but short term results are better then long term “value”… ‘ceiling’ is another word for unemployed. Simmons is valuing things that don’t matter and it’s why he won’t win a title with this logic.

I don't think that Lebron is leading the Suns to a title. The odds of him doing that next year aren't worth losing Booker for potentially 10+ years.

I think that Simmons is right on that and I'm pretty sure you are one of the few who would trade Tatum or Booker for Lebron.

[dhsilv2]

I don't listen to podcasts so once he went exclusively to podcasting he completely fell of the map for me.

1. Are his podcasts a big deal in the podcasting world?
2. Are they as lazy as this column?

I don't even know why he wrote it.

his podcasts are the foundations of the ringer which he sold for a quarter billion dollars...I'd say he's doing pretty well.

[Almond2Oak]

I would never trade Tatum or Booker for Lebron or Kawhi, and I'm pretty sure most people think the same. If Kawhi was healthy it could be a conversation.

The point is to win, in his current state. Do you believe Booker is leading the Suns to a title or Bron. He’s failed to do so multiple years now with an aging CP3. He’s now losing Ayton, replacing him with nothing. If I put Bron on Suns roster last year, who’s going further? Same as a healthy 2x champ in KL. Yes Booker value is higher because he’s younger and will generate a longer profit margin but does Booker get you a ring or a spot at the table? Nothing is guaranteed but short term results are better then long term “value”… ‘ceiling’ is another word for unemployed. Simmons is valuing things that don’t matter and it’s why he won’t win a title with this logic.

I don't think that Lebron is leading the Suns to a title. The odds of him doing that next year aren't worth losing Booker for potentially 10+ years.

I think that Simmons is right on that and I'm pretty sure you are one of the few who would trade Tatum or Booker for Lebron.

Next year is a different year… the Suns are going nowhere next year. The whole premise isn’t that year or the other year. If I took Bron after his bubble run, put him in PHX with the current roster Booker had these past 2… is PHX in the finals? You and Simmons are valuing worth over X/decades opposed to winning now. It’s great Booker might get 10 more AS nods… are those worth more than a title? Winners win. KL & LBJ both have rings on their fingers. Booker has a SEC ring in a drawer and a 40-0 tee stashed away.

[dhsilv2]

The list makes virtually no sense outside of Top 5, unles you’re entire premise is not winning as a franchise. In no terms am I not trading Tatum for Bron. Long term Tatum is value is “higher” but idgaf, it’s about the now. If I put Bron on this current C’s team, do I have a better odds of winning a title? Same goes for Suns, I’ll dump Booker in a Qk minute for Bron or a healthy Kawahi…. How the hell AD is even where he is makes negative 0.00 sense. The reality is, this list is a hot take on a hot plate due to so many things.

There is not one GM in the the league today that would even consider a Lebron for Tatum trade. Not 1! And that means they're in significantly different tiers!

[QingJames]

If Jayson Tatum is an untouchable, then Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are “Completely and Utterly Untouchable”

Tatum is way better than both those guys, though.

[sp6r=underrated]

God damn!

I knew he had money but nothing like that. What does he talk about on his podcast?

The reason I ask is I stopped reading him as I found him very repetitive and frankly that he was out of things to say. Is it still strictly gambling, pop culture, hoops/football.

I'm curious to see his audience demos. I started reading him when I was in college. I'm solidly middle aged now. Is it olds like me listening or has he found a way to appeal to current college bros

That’s definitely the majority of it, yeah. He has a lot of good guests though. All the top sports analysts come on and then he’ll get A-list celebrities once in a while like a Matt Damon or a Kevin Durant. I’d imagine his audience is mostly people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s that have been listening to him for a while but I’m sure there’s a spectrum. I listen to a lot of podcasts while I play online poker and he and Zach Lowe are easily my 2 favorite podcasts that aren’t…. (cough) pro wrestling.

Bill is good for what he does with BS podcast I'm pretty new as as big fan of The Ringer pods like : Mismatch, Ringer NBA show, Raja Bell/Logan, The Watch,Ringer Verse, The Rewatchles etc The Ringer has as you say a lot of the best NBA analyst,other guests from The Athletic, Espn,SI etc
Zach Lowe,The Athletic, their NBA people are the only NBA podcasts on the Ringer level imo. He has built so much more than BS show, even legendary reporter like Jackie Mcmullen has left Espn, joined The Ringer, has her own pod.
He is a great interviewer, terrific host, I rate him, his different shows in top 3 podcasts out there and I have never read his articles.

He's a very shrewd guy. He start writing on AOL and turned that into an ESPN gig. He then switched over to writer to editor of its own website. Then he switched over entirerly to podcasts. He also created a documentary series.

He's shown an ability to anticipate trends beforehand, adjust with the times.

[TwitterFingers]

How’s he going to determine trade value for guys that have never played an nba game? I get it that those guys have actual trade value, but when you’re comparing NBA players, which is what Simmons is doing, how are you going to rate a guy that has never played an actual game with a seasoned vet?

[iggymcfrack]

The list makes virtually no sense outside of Top 5, unles you’re entire premise is not winning as a franchise. In no terms am I not trading Tatum for Bron. Long term Tatum is value is “higher” but idgaf, it’s about the now. If I put Bron on this current C’s team, do I have a better odds of winning a title? Same goes for Suns, I’ll dump Booker in a Qk minute for Bron or a healthy Kawahi…. How the hell AD is even where he is makes negative 0.00 sense. The reality is, this list is a hot take on a hot plate due to so many things.

All the impact stats say Tatum was better than LeBron last season on a per minute basis, he’s much more durable, and there’s a very good chance he makes a mini-leap from age 23 to 24. LeBron on the other hand is turning 38 next season and likely to decline while also making a higher salary. Even for one year only, Tatum gives the C’s a better chance to win than LeBron with the incredible defensive intensity he provides night after night.

I do agree that LeBron’s a little undervalued on the list and should be ahead of guys like Zach Lavine and Donovan Mitchell who are never going to win you anything, but your Tatum comparison is pretty absurd. If anything, Tatum should be higher on the list. I’d put him ahead of Curry and Ja for sure.

[Mike87]

I glanced at it briefly and a lot of inconsistencies. Trae at 17 and Ja at 5 even though both on max deals? For a lot of the young guys, its only a matter of time before they're on max contracts which it doesn't seem like he's taking into account. Edwards and Cade at 8 and 15 with Ball at 33?

[dhsilv2]

The point is to win, in his current state. Do you believe Booker is leading the Suns to a title or Bron. He’s failed to do so multiple years now with an aging CP3. He’s now losing Ayton, replacing him with nothing. If I put Bron on Suns roster last year, who’s going further? Same as a healthy 2x champ in KL. Yes Booker value is higher because he’s younger and will generate a longer profit margin but does Booker get you a ring or a spot at the table? Nothing is guaranteed but short term results are better then long term “value”… ‘ceiling’ is another word for unemployed. Simmons is valuing things that don’t matter and it’s why he won’t win a title with this logic.

I don't think that Lebron is leading the Suns to a title. The odds of him doing that next year aren't worth losing Booker for potentially 10+ years.

I think that Simmons is right on that and I'm pretty sure you are one of the few who would trade Tatum or Booker for Lebron.

Next year is a different year… the Suns are going nowhere next year. The whole premise isn’t that year or the other year. If I took Bron after his bubble run, put him in PHX with the current roster Booker had these past 2… is PHX in the finals? You and Simmons are valuing worth over X/decades opposed to winning now. It’s great Booker might get 10 more AS nods… are those worth more than a title? Winners win. KL & LBJ both have rings on their fingers. Booker has a SEC ring in a drawer and a 40-0 tee stashed away.

Simmons is trying to assess TRADE VALUE! That means what the GM MARKET will pay for player. That means he's trying to make this assessment based on what the NBA GM's would actually do.

NBA GM's want to keep their jobs and they want the team to make money, as much money as possible over a reasonable time horizon. Does lebron make the celtics better vs Tatum? Most likely no he doesn't. Maybe he gives them one year with a marginally higher probability, but even then the long term RIO would still be massively negative. That said he might be the worst possible player to use here for your idea.

So unless you are an actual NBA GM who has a completely different view than the other 29 GM's and I'm just not aware of your style yet. You're simply wrong. Your "logic" here isn't how a GM would think and as such it's illogical from a trade value stand point.

Trade value isn't simply "best player" this year. Never has been and never will be.

[dhsilv2]

That’s definitely the majority of it, yeah. He has a lot of good guests though. All the top sports analysts come on and then he’ll get A-list celebrities once in a while like a Matt Damon or a Kevin Durant. I’d imagine his audience is mostly people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s that have been listening to him for a while but I’m sure there’s a spectrum. I listen to a lot of podcasts while I play online poker and he and Zach Lowe are easily my 2 favorite podcasts that aren’t…. (cough) pro wrestling.

Bill is good for what he does with BS podcast I'm pretty new as as big fan of The Ringer pods like : Mismatch, Ringer NBA show, Raja Bell/Logan, The Watch,Ringer Verse, The Rewatchles etc The Ringer has as you say a lot of the best NBA analyst,other guests from The Athletic, Espn,SI etc
Zach Lowe,The Athletic, their NBA people are the only NBA podcasts on the Ringer level imo. He has built so much more than BS show, even legendary reporter like Jackie Mcmullen has left Espn, joined The Ringer, has her own pod.
He is a great interviewer, terrific host, I rate him, his different shows in top 3 podcasts out there and I have never read his articles.

He's a very shrewd guy. He start writing on AOL and turned that into an ESPN gig. He then switched over to writer to editor of its own website. Then he switched over entirerly to podcasts. He also created a documentary series.

He's shown an ability to anticipate trends beforehand, adjust with the times.

Don't forget Grantland which was the best sports website on the planet that he started under ESPN. Sure it might not have been a huge cash cow, but it was likely breaking even while giving ESPN legit credibility in terms of real journalism in the sports world. Throw in multiple best selling books along the way!

[dhsilv2]

I glanced at it briefly and a lot of inconsistencies. Trae at 17 and Ja at 5 even though both on max deals? For a lot of the young guys, its only a matter of time before they're on max contracts which it doesn't seem like he's taking into account. Edwards and Cade at 8 and 15 with Ball at 33?

Ja's cap is about 9 mil for next season before it jumps. Young is already at the 30 level. So that's a HUGE difference if we trade right now! I think many also see Ja has having the higher ceiling though that's completely subjective I'd assume.

[ReddoverKobe]

The list makes virtually no sense outside of Top 5, unles you’re entire premise is not winning as a franchise. In no terms am I not trading Tatum for Bron. Long term Tatum is value is “higher” but idgaf, it’s about the now. If I put Bron on this current C’s team, do I have a better odds of winning a title? Same goes for Suns, I’ll dump Booker in a Qk minute for Bron or a healthy Kawahi…. How the hell AD is even where he is makes negative 0.00 sense. The reality is, this list is a hot take on a hot plate due to so many things.

I'm going to guess if we had a poll like 90% of the people would hard disagree with you

[Ruma85]

If Jayson Tatum is an untouchable, then Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are “Completely and Utterly Untouchable”

Tatum is way better than both those guys, though.

Way better then, B.i is very questionable.

[Ruma85]

I think Houston would trade Green or Jabari, Chicago would trade Lavine, Toronto would trade Siakam (8 years older), Milwaukee would trade Jrue (12 years older!), Pelicans would trade Ingram, each for LaMelo Ball. I also don't get why Bill values Cade 15 and LaMelo 33 when LaMelo has higher scoring upside at the same size/passing ability. Because of 1 extra year on contract

Good lord ingram for ball

[Ruma85]

jokic is a better player than luka (though it is very close). but does luka get points for being younger, perhaps?

Of course Luka gets points for being younger, but the point is, it’s not close. The difference in PER between Jokic and Luka is the same as the difference between Luka and Jalen Brunson, and Jokic effects the game much more in ways that aren’t measured by the box score. Luka has a loooooong way to go to ever be as good as Jokic is right now.

Luka just took down the Suns team that swept Jokic last year.

Nuggets lost in 5 to the warriors.