Corey Kispert, Wizards Sniper.

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

How do we feel about this?

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=thompkl01&p1yrfrom=2013&player_id2=kispeco01&p2yrfrom=2022

At age 22, Kispert has been more efficient than Thompson was, but has taken almost 5 less shots per 36 minutes. Numbers are pretty similar outside of that.

Just need the guy to shoot more.

What am I looking at?

The good: they took the same number of 3pt shots/36mins - just over 6. The bad: Klay shot 40%, Kispert 34.5%.

The ugly: The raw figures from 2pt show Kispert (under 4) shooting less than half as much as Klay (over 8) - and then hitting 62% against 44% for Klay. But you need to dig into where those shots were from. (Maybe you do for the 3pters as well, but ... meh maybe not so urgently.) It's efficient if Kispert makes most of those shots from within 3ft. But he's not going to put up another 5 of those/36.

[nate33]

This came up in another thread but I wanted to post it here for the record:



https://synergysports.com/impacting-other-players-shot-quality/

[doclinkin]

Deni AND Corey. We should be so much better on Defense than this.

[FAH1223]

.

Just realized this thread title should be Bullets Sniper

Just fits so much better

[Frichuela]

Deni AND Corey. We should be so much better on Defense than this.

Indeed. Surprised about Corey being on this list, I guess it shows that, despite his obvious physical shortcomings, he is a high IQ player who can be a smart defender.

[payitforward]

Another thing it may show is that synergy's new SSQ stat hasn't been tested enough over a wide enough range of data to put much stock in.

The other half of the metric measures a player's effect on another player's offense: e.g. according to Whitehead Luka being on the court leads to Dwight Powell producing 6.4 more points per 100 shots. That's very cool.

Even better is that in 2017-18, when Luka wasn't on the court with him because he wasn't in the league yet, Powell made his FTs at 71.9%, while the following year, Luka's rookie year, Powell shot 77.2% from the charity stripe. Now, obviously Luka wasn't on the floor every minute Powell was -- so we have to assume that Luka Doncic's presence on the floor had an even more marked effect on Powell's accuracy from the line. Right?

Somebody should mention this to Todd Whitehead -- obviously, he needs to come up with a new stat, the SFTQ stat, to account for this significant effect a player being on the court can have on a teammate's efficiency from the charity stripe! Don't you agree?

[doclinkin]

We can sneer at opaque stat assessments all we want, but eyes-on evaluation suggests that whatever his defaults on defense (short arms, above average athleticism but nothing eye popping) the same vision and anticipation Kispert uses to make timely cuts and find spacing on offense are the skillset he uses to anticipate where to be on defense.

Is he a shut down defender? No, he is a skilled team defender, who was a key player on a Gonzaga team that consistently ranked top 5 in the NCAA on defense. Here on the Wiz his on/off numbers show him having a pretty neutral effect on defense. Opponents steal the ball less, turn it over less, shoot more assists, block fewer shots. But given that he was a rookie last year, to end up with a +5.8 on/off rating of points per 100 possessions, is pretty notable. Rookies are generally terrible on D. I think the new defensive changes have helped rookies more than any other class of player. I'd bet we see more Euro players coming into the league as solid defenders, since they allow more clutching and bumping over there.

Which calls up another point: Kispert on that chart may simply be a carryover of the Deni Avdija effect. Kispert shared the court with Deni for 845 minutes of the 1800 minutes he played last year. Deni had a positive effect on defense with pretty much every player he shared the court with. Deni earned his place on that chart. Maybe he also earned Kispert's place as well. But good for Corey for playing well with him. As I said, seems to me we should be better on this side of the ball, if we can develop the sort of team chemistry on D that these two seem to carry.

[payitforward]

I wasn't dinging Kispert. I used green font. I was just expressing amusement at the endless human desire to come with the final, single-number formula that resolves everything. Sort of like any number of stock market formulas.

I like Kispert a lot. & if he's a meaningfully plus defender in any way, that's great since it's a bonus: he wasn't drafted for his defense.

[dckingsfan]

...I like Kispert a lot. & if he's a meaningfully plus defender in any way, that's great since it's a bonus: he wasn't drafted for his defense.

This. I was pretty surprised by his defense last year - I thought he would be terrible. It will be interesting if he stays at that level.

I am not sure I completely by the defensive numbers thrown around here - but he ain't turrible… if somehow a miracle happened (our plan) and Deni started knocking down 3s at the .400 rate, well there you have it.

[closg00]

Slow off-season offering...

15. Washington Wizards
Original pick: Corey Kispert
Redraft pick: Davion Mitchell

Selecting Kispert at No. 15 was a safe pick for the Wizards to grab a sharpshooter -- and he played in 77 games as a rookie. So, clearly not a bad pick. But Mitchell is still on the board here, and with such a gaping need to add backcourt talent, they grab the Baylor product. He's a difference-maker on D who could function early on -- maybe right away -- as the No. 1 playmaking option.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/redrafting-the-2021-nba-draft-rockets-pick-evan-mobley-at-no-2-jalen-green-slips-to-magic-at-no-5/

[payitforward]

Nonsense! Davion Mitchell played 2076 minutes & put up absolutely horrible numbers across the board.

But, in any case, Mitchell was picked #9 in the real draft, so he wasn't an option at 15. Just b/c he's on the board in Kyle Boone's redraft, so what?

In fact, looking at Boone's whole redraft... it's fairly ridiculous to tell the truth! Above all, he seems to have no actual grasp of context. E.g. look at his description of pick #22, which he thinks the Lakers traded to Indiana -- & suggests that in a redraft, they'd make the pick not trade it. No, dummy: we traded it to Indiana for Holiday & the breath-taking opportunity to draft the extraordinary Isaiah Todd.

On top of which, he moves Brandon Boston -- taken #51 !! -- into R1. Despite the fact that he was a bad Freshman at Kentucky & a really bad rookie in the NBA.

As to Corey himself, in actual performance, he was comfortably in the top 10 rookies picked in the draft (among those who played 1000 minutes or more that is, to make the selection meaningful). Only Barnes, Mobley, Wagner, Moody, Reaves, Dosunmu & Jones had better rookie years than Kispert.

The first 4 were taken before Corey. No reason to regret taking Corey Kispert.

Which is not the same, of course, as saying that Tommy managed the draft well overall. He didn't.

For example, had we traded the #31 to OKC for the #34 & #36 we could have had 2 of the other 3 from the seven I listed above.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nonsense! Davion Mitchell played 2076 minutes & put up absolutely horrible numbers across the board.

But, in any case, Mitchell was picked #9 in the real draft, so he wasn't an option at 15. Just b/c he's on the board in Kyle Boone's redraft, so what?

In fact, looking at Boone's whole redraft... it's fairly ridiculous to tell the truth! Above all, he seems to have no actual grasp of context. E.g. look at his description of pick #22, which he thinks the Lakers traded to Indiana -- & suggests that in a redraft, they'd make the pick not trade it. No, dummy: we traded it to Indiana for Holiday & the breath-taking opportunity to draft the extraordinary Isaiah Todd.

On top of which, he moves Brandon Boston -- taken #51 !! -- into R1. Despite the fact that he was a bad Freshman at Kentucky & a really bad rookie in the NBA.

As to Corey himself, in actual performance, he was comfortably in the top 10 rookies picked in the draft (among those who played 1000 minutes or more that is, to make the selection meaningful). Only Barnes, Mobley, Wagner, Moody, Reaves, Dosunmu & Jones had better rookie years than Kispert.

The first 4 were taken before Corey. No reason to regret taking Corey Kispert.

Which is not the same, of course, as saying that Tommy managed the draft well overall. He didn't.

For example, had we traded the #31 to OKC for the #34 & #36 we could have had 2 of the other 3 from the seven I listed above.

YEAH, BUT ...

Do you remember Marquis Daniels?

I remember the same year Dwayne Wade was just a name I kept hearing about this guy who played for Marquette (I was obsessed over the numbers Steve Novak was putting up--AND I correctly predicted he'd stick in the NBA) ...

OF COURSE I LEARNED about the Wade guy ...

Back to Daniels... Marquis had a triple-double IIRC during March madness. I think he played at Auburn while Wade was at Marquette. Daniels was an undrafted free agent UFDA who stuck with the Mavericks. UNLIKE DAVION MITCHELL WHO BENEFITTED FROM THE SHINE BAYLOR GOT. All the national tv (see Jared Jeffries the year Indiana went far in the NCAAs). Mitchell skyrocketed past Jared Butler on draft night.

Butler and Mitchell now? Jared Butler. Davion (not Donovan) Mitchell. Mitchell and Butler who you got? I STILL LIKE BOTH

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Daniels? He was underutilized IMHO by Rick Carlisle the year Dallas went to the NBA Finals and lost.

VERY SIMILAR TO WHEN DEJUAN BLAIR WAS HEALTHY/FIT AND A 1ST OR 2ND YEAR PLAYER...he was foul prone but IMHO woefully underutilized by Greg Popovich one of the years SAN ANTONIO WAS GREAT BUT DID NOT WIN THE FINALS. BLAIR WAS EXACTLY WHO I THOUGHT HE WAS

(DENNIS GREEN, CROWN THE BEARS )

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

yEAH, i'M RANTING TODAY

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This came up in another thread but I wanted to post it here for the record:



https://synergysports.com/impacting-other-players-shot-quality/

wth

DOES THIS MEAN kISPERT SHOULD START AT SG AND NOT BEAL?

i'M GOOD WITH THAT

[nate33]

Watching this got me excited about Kispert again. He really was good over the 2nd half of last season.

Read on Twitter

I got a little Klay Thompson vibe with his effortless, quick release. Klay has a higher release point, though. He needs less room to get his shot off.

[badinage]

Watching this got me excited about Kispert again. He really was good over the 2nd half of last season.

Read on Twitter

I got a little Klay Thompson vibe with his effortless, quick release. Klay has a higher release point, though. He needs less room to get his shot off.

I mean, a guy who shoots 100% from 3 does make the heart beat faster, for sure …

[dobrojim]

(with apologies for slight thread hijack)

I'm pleased and looking forward to a season with a new broadcast team.
Cya JK.

[doclinkin]

Watching this got me excited about Kispert again. He really was good over the 2nd half of last season.

Read on Twitter

I got a little Klay Thompson vibe with his effortless, quick release. Klay has a higher release point, though. He needs less room to get his shot off.

Right. It made me wonder what his upside is, and if he can develop further, or is he just a quick fit as expected. If you look at his shooting %'s he improved every month with a true shooting % that rose from .436 to .667. Joke if you wanna, but if that trend continues he will eventually be shooting 1000%. Maybe more! TEN THOUSAND PERCENT, maybe. People are saying it might happen.

Of course maybe scouts had not yet figured out his game and adjusted, but still, he started like 30 games Feb-April and his shooting numbers only got more efficient.

Of course, his on/off numbers aren't great, since scoring is about all he does. I like him working on his flexibility to improve his defense this year. He also talked about working on his handle. It would be good if he was able to stay on the floor with a more complete game instead of being an Offensive sub only. Especially if he is a realistic contender at the shooting guard spot. As a forward his rebounding numbers are never going to be great, but his passing and free throw totals have room to get better.

[nate33]

Of course, his on/off numbers aren't great, since scoring is about all he does.

According to basketball reference, he had the 2nd best on/off numbers on the team behind only Harrell (and Gill, if you count his sub-500 minute season).