Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 - 1985-86 Larry Bird

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ty 4191
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#81 » by ty 4191 » Thu Jul 14, 2022 5:20 pm

70sFan wrote:It shows that Wilt was versatile, but it doesn't show that he's portable across eras.


What makes you think he isn't portable across eras?

70sFan wrote:That's not true, Wilt lifted weights before he came to the NBA.


I said lifting weights seriously, and bodybuilding. He only started bodybuilding in 1969 into 1970 to rehab his knee. That, and, he started playing volleyball for the first time ever in 1969, also, to rehab his knee.

70sFan wrote:f it's a wash for Wilt, why isn't it for others?


Because the normal rules the apply to everyone else in NBA history don't apply to him.

Why? Because he's the greatest athlete that ever set foot on a basketball court. Who else was drafted seriously by the NFL AND put up near olympic times in track and field AND was a world class beach volleyball player? Everything the guy tried, he was amazing at.

Can you imagine Kareem or Shaq high jumping 6'6" in college and throwing a shot put 56 feet, while running: a sub-eleven second 100m, a forty-nine second 400m in “baggy sweats”, and a 1:58.3 second 800m?

70sFan wrote:Why are you so focused on stats lines? PER might be the worst all-in-one metric available.


What would you prefer we use, to be objective, to directly compare a player from, say, 1962, to a player in 2022? Your subjective perceptions are completely fraught with bias and your own personal jaundice/bent on the game. At least metrics are objective.

What makes PER the "worst all in one metric available? What's a better metric to compare players from 50+ years apart?

70sFan wrote:Giannis himself posted 29.4/11.7/5.8 for two straight seasons (including playoffs) on 58.2 eFG% and basically as good PER as Jokic. Just the fact that we have one player in the same period posting similar stats shows that Jokic isn't "massive outlier historically".
70sFan wrote:
Nobody in history has ever put up 27/12/8 for two straight years. This makes it historically unique in that nobody has ever been this well rounded on offense.

Probably, yes. Do you disagree, and if so, why?

Yes, I disagree. I don't think it's reasonable to conclude that the best players ever all played in the last 5 years.


That's not what I said at all. I said, if it's even remotely close, we should go with the player that player in the stronger/deeper league. What's so difficult to understand about this statement?

Records and numbers and performance in sport are only as valid and worthy as the strength of competition they were put up against.

Answer this one for me: ~25% of the players in 2022 in the NBA were internationally born. Less than 1% of the players were international born in 1980. How many Americans that would have been playing in 1980 have been displaced by better (international) players in today's NBA?

How many All Stars? How many top 10 players are internationally born the last 5 years?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#82 » by 70sFan » Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:53 pm

ty 4191 wrote:What makes you think he isn't portable across eras?

I don't think you got my point. I said that Wilt being portable across various roles in his era doesn't equal him to be portable across eras.

I think that Wilt is portable, but we can't say that for sure.

I said lifting weights seriously, and bodybuilding. He only started bodybuilding in 1969 into 1970 to rehab his knee. That, and, he started playing volleyball for the first time ever in 1969, also, to rehab his knee.

Fair enough, I believe that he changed his training program after the injury. His body looked a bit different in the later part of his career.

Because the normal rules the apply to everyone else in NBA history don't apply to him.

I'd say that normal rules don't apply to any ATG player.

Why? Because he's the greatest athlete that ever set foot on a basketball court. Who else was drafted seriously by the NFL AND put up near olympic times in track and field AND was a world class beach volleyball player? Everything the guy tried, he was amazing at.

Can you imagine Kareem or Shaq high jumping 6'6" in college and throwing a shot put 56 feet, while running: a sub-eleven second 100m, a forty-nine second 400m in “baggy sweats”, and a 1:58.3 second 800m?

Bill Russell was comparably elite T&F athlete, do you have the same criteria for him?

I think that someone like Shaq wouldn't accomplish similar T&F success, but he was talented in other physical aspects.

What would you prefer we use, to be objective, to directly compare a player from, say, 1962, to a player in 2022? Your subjective perceptions are completely fraught with bias and your own personal jaundice/bent on the game. At least metrics are objective.

Objective stats that resonate far better with impact and winning.

What makes PER the "worst all in one metric available? What's a better metric to compare players from 50+ years apart?

Different kind of plus/minus data, tracking data etc. I don't like all-in-one metrics at all, but they could be a start for conversation. I dislike BPM, but it's much better than PER.

Nobody in history has ever put up 27/12/8 for two straight years. This makes it historically unique in that nobody has ever been this well rounded on offense.

Why should we be impressed with 27/12/8? Is 29/11/6 worse? How about 31/16/5?

That's not what I said at all. I said, if it's even remotely close, we should go with the player that player in the stronger/deeper league. What's so difficult to understand about this statement?

I understand that, but I don't consider all of them "remotely close".

Records and numbers and performance in sport are only as valid and worthy as the strength of competition they were put up against.

Then don't put Wilt to a high standard and don't quote his records/numbers/accomplishments. After all, he did that against vastly inferior and smaller talent pool.

Answer this one for me: ~25% of the players in 2022 in the NBA were internationally born. Less than 1% of the players were international born in 1980. How many Americans that would have been playing in 1980 have been displaced by better (international) players in today's NBA?

Exchaning 25% of the league for better players would be a big difference, but it's not something that makes league incomparable.

How many All Stars? How many top 10 players are internationally born the last 5 years?

I'd say Jokic, Giannis and Embiid are international top 10 players from the last 5 years.

LeBron didn't become obsolete when the league started growing their international talent. James remained the best player in the league until he got caught with injuries. You can say the same with Durant to a lesser degree.

I just ask you to be consistent - do not put Wilt in the highest tier if you think he played against weak competition.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#83 » by Lou Fan » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:20 pm

Glad to see Bill is finally in I'll start participating again soon my computer was broken and I just got it back. Thinking Curry will be my pick here if I have the time to get a vote in.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#84 » by letskissbro » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:46 pm

1. 2004 Kevin Garnett
(2003)

KG is arguably the most ahead of his time player ever and I think that peaking in the most defensive environment in NBA history on a team practically void of talent suppressed his raw box score numbers and his all-around game, and has led to him becoming underrated even on this board. Because he was the lone offensive threat on his team most of the time he was forced to take more low percentage shots than other stars when he could've been mixing his midrange game with playing closer to the basket and rolling to the rim. I don't want to unfairly assign guys new attributes based on speculation but it isn't hard to believe that with better coaching he'd be taking more 3s instead of foot on the line-2s which would've been a huge boost to his efficiency.

I'm a really big fan of his IQ and all-around skillset. Versatility is what I value the most in basketball and KG was probably the #2 most versatile player ever. He was an elite passer, midrange shooter, and one of the 5 or so best defenders ever. He's maybe the most switchable, low mistake defender ever and he quarterbacked his teams by calling out rotations, an extremely underrated value-add. He essentially combined the best attributes of a stretch big and a wing, two of the most valuable role player archetypes in the modern game, resulting in a matchup proof player who I think has the best intangibles ever. This bears out in his impact stats where 04 is pretty unanimously a top 3 season on record and he's 2nd only to LeBron in career RAPM in the 21st century.

In the postseason where he catches a lot of flack for dropping off, his numbers remained elite and again, 2nd to only LeBron, indicating the enormous value of these intangibles. In fact by RAPM he actually improved, and that's with him missing the playoffs during what should've been the best years of his career.

https://public.tableau.com/views/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021/PostseasonRAPM1997-2021?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no#2

Even if this drop off is as large as his raw box score numbers suggest, I'm less inclined to penalize him for it as I am guys like Steph Curry or Karl Malone, as he brings much more to the table in other areas of the game. Really he shouldn't even be asked to be the offensive engine anyways and would be best suited playing an offensive #2, defensive #1 type role where his resiliency would improve.

In an optimized NBA I have 0 doubt about his impact translating whereas I don't know if guys like Duncan or Shaq would've been as effective, offensively and defensively. I would actually go as far as to say KG's in my top 5 for peaks but keeping up with this project requires a lot of time invested so my participation has been kinda spotty and I haven't been able to make the case for him.


2. 1986 Larry Bird
(1985)

Tier 2 offensive player ever (just below the Jordan, LeBron, Magic tier) while being a solid defender for his time. I was probably lower on Bird compared to others before this year but watching Jokic this season has really put into perspective how dominant of a player he was.

3. 1994 David Robinson (?)
(95, 96)

Honestly I'm stuck between Robinson, Magic, Steph and Giannis for this spot. I could be swayed in any direction really. Decided to put Robinson's name down for the mean time because I wanna emphasize early on that he deserves serious consideration for being ranked this highly. All indications are that he's an APM monster like KG and LeBron. His regular season impact is legit GOAT tier and that shouldn't be brushed off so easily considering he was playing under less than ideal situations in his prime. 11th might be underselling him.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#85 » by LukaTheGOAT » Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:07 pm

SickMother wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:From 2005-10, the Suns with Steve Nash on the court without Marion and Stoudemire put up a 117.5 ORtg (a +10.5 rORtg) with a +3.6 NRtg.

With both Marion and Stoudemire on the court, and Nash off, the team had a +1.8 rORtg with a -2.7 NRtg.

In terms of offense only evaluation, few have been as exceptional as Nash.

His box-score metrics but impact data that does not utilize the box-score are handily in Nash's favor. I believe Nash did a lot on O that the box-score does not necessarily capture, like being a more aggressive and exploitative passer, as well as navigating in traffic for transitions, that ultimately led to Nash having the better offenses than just about anyone. If we are to assume that a PG's main duty is to produce the best possible offense, Nash did just that.

15 Yr Adjusted RAPM has Nash second only to Lebron- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-R9RXLp6eYuRcptQIQVTBIkLrxvrTCfLh_WB2P-DBwE/edit#gid=0

Scaled 2 Yr APM has Nash with the highest offensive peak of everyone in the data ball era at 6.3 (CP3 is not in the top 8).

Nash also has the highest offensive peak according to Multi-Year PI RAPM and Single Year NPI RAPM
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/11181n4avq5wefk/AAAZ4muMkVh3aNDYIzq_NNHEa?dl=0

NPI: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/11181n4avq5wefk/AAAZ4muMkVh3aNDYIzq_NNHEa?dl=0
Multi-Year: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AAAUkNkDUG0KWeewPZbnwS2ja?dl=0

Nash also leads in 19-year RAPM (which catches the downside of his career)
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Unless you believe that multiple different versions of RAPM created by different people are missing something, I think Nash in terms of pure offensive production could be placed among the greats.That combined with Nash leading better regular season and playoff offenses makes me feel as if Nash.

In terms of PS resilience:

Per an estimate done by a member of the Thinking Basketball Discord:

The Suns with Steve Nash on the court in the PS had a rORTG from 05-07 of +17.6, +11.48, and +9.6 respectively.

The 05-07 Suns have the greatest 3 year stretch of PS offense ever.


Great breakdown of Steve's offense, what do those same numbers say about his defense?

By DWS, DBPM and DRtg he is markedly behind both Magic/Steph...

Career
Magic: 45.2 DWS | 1.6 DBPM | 104 DRtg
Curry: 32.7 DWS | 0.3 DBPM | 107 DRtg
Nash: 16.1 DWS | -1.3 DBPM | 111 DRtg

Peak Season Bests
Magic: 4.8 DWS | 3.3 DBPM | 98 DRtg
Curry: 4.1 DWS | 1.7 DBPM | 101 DRtg
Nash: 2.1 DWS | 0.3 DBPM (only positive season of career) | 105 DRtg


There is little doubt in my mind Nash and Magic were better defenders than Nash. I moreso, was just talking about Nash in terms of offensive brilliance.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#86 » by ty 4191 » Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:39 pm

70sFan wrote:I just ask you to be consistent - do not put Wilt in the highest tier if you think he played against weak competition.


I don't think Wilt played against relatively weak competition. All his best years came in a league with 9 teams, and no ABA. That's probably not a weak league.

Can you imagine a drawing pool of the entire US putting all their best players onto only 9 teams (not 23 or 30, as in later eras)? How strong would the competition be, then?

WIlt's % of games played against HOFers, his % of games against ATG defenses in the playoffs, and his % of games against ATG teams speaks to the fact that he had brutal competition.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#87 » by DraymondGold » Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:53 pm

Further Skill Comparison: Magic vs Curry
70sFan wrote:We can look at other years though, to conclude that Magic was consistently great against elite defensive competition. That was my point, we shouldn't stick to one year in such comparisions. The bigger sample, the better.
Let me address this first, since this might be a somewhat fundamental disagreement.

Question: What do we mean by peak? A 1 year sample? 2-3 year sample? or a 4-5+ year sample? To me, a peak is anywhere between 1-3 years, while a prime is 4-5+ years. To you, it sounds like a peak might be 4-5+ years (87-91 is 5 years... including 86 makes it 6). Which is perfectly okay! But we're discussing different things if I only look at 1-3 year samples and you only do 4-5 year samples.

If we take 5+ year samples, I'm more amenable to your suggestion that Prime Magic beats Prime Curry on offense (e.g including a comparison of 90/91 Magic offense vs 22 Curry offense)... But If we stick to samples of 3 years or less, I think the data supports Peak Curry when healthy over Peak Magic, at least to me.

As a reminder, this project is supposedly a '1 year' sample. That's not to say we can't ever look at years that are further out -- like you say, they provide more context and give us insight into different situations (e.g. healthy prime Curry without Durant in 2022 might give us more info about Curry's resilience). But the further out we go, the more cautious I am of taking averages (of impact metrics, team performance, opponents faced, etc.), because then we're more likely to be conflating prime comparisons with peak comparisons.

1. Scoring / Shooting: Curry >> Magic.
70sFan wrote: Maybe I didn't specify well what I meant by that, because I never argued that Curry is "just a better shooter" than Magic. He's significantly better, tiers ahead. Everybody knows that :wink: The question is how much of a value it has in comparison to Magic's advantages.
Haha, glad I figured you didn't really mean "just a better shooter" :lol: But yeah I'm glad you clarified the point. And agreed, the question then becomes who has more value.

70sFan wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:It's true that Magic does have the passing advantage, like y'all suggest. But Curry's more of an outlier with shooting than Magic is with passing. Curry's still an all-star level passer in his own right -- I'd argue he's a better passer than 87 Magic's 21% 3 point shooting (though to be clear this comparison doesn't apply era context).
I think Magic was all-star level shooter in 1987. You just can't look at three point shooting from that era as an indicator of shooting ability. Magic didn't take threes, it's pointless to provide three point efficiency to draw conclusion of his shooting ability. He was already excellet FT shooter that later became all-time great one at very high volume. I remember one tracking numbers from Magic's prime games (can't find it now) suggesting that his midrange shooting efficiency is top tier as well, which resonates well with my impression from watching his games.
Good points! I agree Magic's 3 Point volume is low, and we need to apply league context. So let's look at their relative shooting percentages:

87 Magic
rTS% +6.4% (playoff +6.9%)
rFT% +8.5%
r3P% -9.6%

17 Curry:
rTS% +7.2% (playoff +11.8%)
rFT% +12.6%
r3P% +5.3 (with immense volume and difficulty advantage over league average)

87-89 Magic:
rTS% +7.4% (playoff +7.4)
rFT% +10.6%
r3P% -3.9%
Inflation Adjusted Pts/75: 21.8

15-17 Curry:
rTS% +10.1% (playoff +8.7 with playoff injury)
rFT% +14.7%
r3P% +8.2%
Inflation Adjusted Pts/75: 29.5

Over a 3 year sample, Curry beats Magic by: 3.5 rTS%, 4.1 rFT%, 12.1 r3P%, and 7.7 Pts/75 relative to their league, and these advantages remain in their peak playoff performances. Magic's a good shooter and a good scorer. But Curry's the GOAT shooter and an all-time scorer. Curry >> Magic in shooting and scoring, even relative to era.


2. Creation: Magic > Curry, but Curry closes much of the Gap
70sFan wrote:
This offball skill also helps Curry close the creation gap. Curry's the GOAT off-ball movement creator, the GOAT perimeter gravity player, an all-time playmaker with hockey assists, an all-time screen setter among guards.

It certainly helps, but the question is - does it close the creation gap? I'm not sure we can say that certainly.

As much as I love subtle skills in basketball, I don't think Curry's screen setting ability is important in this discussion :D
Does Curry's superior screening single-handedly close the creation gap? Of course not :lol: But it's not about Curry's individual off-ball skills... it's about the culmination of his off-ball creation closing the creation gap far more than Magic can close the scoring gap.

I think we have to ask ourselves: Why does Curry consistently create better shots for his teammates and improve his teammates' efficiency more than older LeBron, Harden, Jokic, Luka, Westbrook, and older Chris Paul, whether we're looking at a 1-year peak or a 5 Year prime? Where does this playmaking come from?

Curry's an all-star level passer, but it's clearly not passing. So that's where the culmination of all the little forms of creation come into play, where Curry is consistently all-time to GOAT level in these skills. He's constantly near the top of the league in guards' Screening Assists, at just under 1 per game. He's constantly near the top of the league in Secondary/Hockey Assists, at just over 1 per game. And per manal tracking, he has multiple off-ball movement assists and gravity-dragging assists per game. This says nothing about the subtler cases where Curry's presence makes it harder for opponents to double, help on, or close out on Curry's teammates.

Per my film study earlier in this project: in the 2017 Finals, Curry drew the primary attention of at least 2 defenders on 62% of possessions where he was involved (34/55), and his teammates' points were made easier by this 89% of the time (34/38 points benefited from the attention Curry drew).
Per NBA Tracking Data: In the 2018 Finals, Curry received double teams 2000% more (that's two-thousand times more) than KD.
Additional Film Study here:
Spoiler:
KD pre-Curry goes until 1:45. Skip to 1:45 to see Curry's impact.
[url][/url]
And remember: None of these examples are captured by the traditional box score, so people who just look at assist numbers or box-score only metrics are likely underrating Curry's playmaking. But they would show up in more advanced stats. For example 2017 Curry improved his teammates' scoring efficiency by almost twice as much as the next best playmaking star in the league in LeBron.

I think if people aren't considering Curry a possible top 5 playmaking offensive engine of all time, they're seriously underrating Curry. To be clear, I still have Magic as the superior playmaker, largely from his volume advantage as a playmaker. But Curry is Tier 1 All Time in terms of playmaking efficiency, and I think these advanced stats/film analysis support that the playmaking gap is smaller than the scoring gap, at least to me.
Sources:
Spoiler:
1. 1-Year peak Teammate shot improvement: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-stephen-curry-mvp/
2. 5 Year Prime teammate shot quality improvement: https://synergysports.com/explaining-synergy-shot-quality/
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3. My 2017 Finals film study: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100386706#p100386706
4. 2018 Finals Tracking Data: NBAlogix (paywall) / Clutchpoints
5. Curry vs LeBron efficiency stats are in source 1

3. Overall Impact: Curry > Magic
70sFan wrote: I also have problems comparing specific skills regarded separately from themselves. Magic's offense wasn't so impressive strictly because of his passing game. You have to combine all of his size, ball-handling, foul drawing ability, post game, agressiveness to get an idea why he's so special. The same thing applies to Curry actually - his shooting alone wouldn't turn him into GOAT-level offensive player either. I just think Magic's overall package proved to be more dangerous, while being extremely portable as well.

Magic's passing isn't strictly attached to him being ball-dominant though. As I said, Magic played with ball-dominant players in his career and it didn't stop him from giving his team massive boost. Magic was a capable off-ball player, of course not in Curry's league but his passing brings enormous value even without dominating the ball.

I also don't agree that passing doesn't fit well next to other creators. Having more creators is always extremely beneficial for a team. I don't think it's proven that two shooters are necessarily more impacful than two creators.
Good point that we have to look at the whole package, not just individual skills! To me, that's what I'm doing when I'm looking at the metrics. For example, if we look at their ScoreVal + PlayVal (to approximate combined scoring and playmaking value):
3-year Regular Season: 15-17 Curry's 4.2 >87-89 Magic's 3.3.
Peak Playoffs: 17 Playoff Curry's +4.3 > 87 Playoff Magic's +3.7.
And like I've mentioned, the other 1-3 year metrics favor Curry (see below or my Ballot on page 1). I also still feel confident about this after the film study, though we do seem to disagree here. Would you recommend a different way to look at their wholistic value?

70sFan wrote: Quite a lot of people recently believe that Curry's shooting is enough to put him ahead of any player, but I want strong evidences for that. Curry didn't anchor better offensive teams than Magic. He looks top tier in imapct metrics, but the little we have from Magic shows him just as spectacular.
A) The point that "Curry didn't anchor better offensive teams than Magic" isn't quite true. The 2017 Warriors were a better relative offensive team than any Magic-led offense ever. And they faced better playoff defenses than peak 1987 Magic. And remember: this world-beating offense is only present with Curry, and tracks far more closely with Curry's minutes than with any other star's. They were better than the 86 Celtics with just Curry on and all 3 stars off, while they were worse than the 2022 Cavs for the reverse situation. But you're right, in larger 5-year samples, Magic's non-peak Lakers are a better relative offense than Curry's non-peak Warriors.

B) When you say "Magic... [is] just as spectacular" by the data... are we sure that's true?

Pure Impact Metrics: Curry >= Magic, though we're missing some of Magic's data. Curry's playoff-only PIPM is higher, and this applies for a 3-year playoff sample (17-19 Curry's 8th all time > 15-17 Curry (with injury) 17th all time > 87-89 Magic's 18th). Curry's estimated prime WOWY is higher (1st all time > 5th all time). 85 Magic's 41-game sample regular season RAPM edges out 2017 Curry's regular season, though 88 Magic's 54-game sample regular season RAPM falls behind 2017 Curry's regular season, and many people argue Curry's 2016 regular season was better.

Box-metrics: Curry >> Magic. What about box models of plus minus data? Curry again has the advantage, and the stronger advantage in the playoffs. 2017 Curry's higher than 1987 Magic in postseason Backpicks BPM, BR’s Postseason BPM, and WS/48. (I can't seem to convince people that PER is a bad stat... so if you can't beat em, join em: 2017 Curry's PER is higher than 1987 Magic's PER too). Magic never beat Curry's 2017 playoff numbers in Backpicks BPM, BR’s Postseason BPM, and WS/48, or PER.

And remember, Curry is Top 2 All Time in regular season AuPM, postseason AuPM, on/off, ESPN’s RPM, and RAPOR +/-. I think your point that Magic's non-peak Prime years may surpass Curry statistically certainly has a case. But peak for peak, in 1/2/3 year samples, I'm not sure the data supports the idea that Magic is just as spectacular as Curry.

Anyway, that's why I have Curry > Magic on offense. And since the film study shows they're similar on defense, I think this explains why Curry has the overall higher impact metrics. Let me know where y'all disagree!
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#88 » by DraymondGold » Thu Jul 14, 2022 11:51 pm

4. Portability: Magic vs Curry
70sFan wrote:Unlike LeBron, Magic proved consistently that his style of play was very scalable and portable with various different roles.

I really haven't seen any strong evidence suggesting that Curry is more impactful or more portable offensively than Magic. I have seen Curry-led team struggling a lot offensively in 2021 when he played his usual role. Magic transitioned from Showtime fastbreak into slow, grinding HC style in the 1990s effortlessly.
I tend to agree that Magic might be more scalable than LeBron, but I want to be careful here. I think we may be using the same words to talk about different things.

(My definition of) Value: How much they help the team win (either their team or some 'average team)
(My definition of) Resilience: How that value changes with better opponents
(My definition of) Scalability/Portability: How that value changes with better teammates [i.e. how value changes for ceiling raising > floor raising]
(Perhaps your definition of?) Scalability/Portability: How that value changes with different teammates

I prefer to try to rate how much a player helps a team win a championship. Other considerations are absolutely valid, this is just what I personally care about. You'll probably face good opponents and probably need good teammates to win a championship, so this context (which I'm calling resilience and scalability respectively) is important to consider, rather than just flat value.

It's possible in your definition of scalability/portability (e.g. how players value changes fitting on any other team), Magic fairs just as well as Curry. But as teammates get better, certain skills are going to slightly decrease in value.

For example, if we have lots of ball-dominant iso scorer on a team, there won't be as much time or opportunities for these ball dominant scorers vs if each iso scorer had their own offense they could lead alone. Someone's scoring value is going to have to decrease. But not all skills decrease as much as ball-dominant iso scoring when surrounded by better teammates. This skill analysis is how I tend to evaluate portability/scalability.

So what skills retain the most value with good teammates?
Scalability tier: Spacing ~ Finishing ~ Passing > (non spacing/passing) Creation > Iso Scoring
Scalability tier (other skills): Off ball > on ball. Defense is also very scalable (though off-ball defense > on-ball defense).
*Qualifier: this is not to say high portability skills are inherently more valuable on a good team... it's just that they lose less value when in a ceiling-raising role vs a floor-raising role. For example, it's possible that spacing is worth +0.25 on a bad team and+ 0.5 on a good team vs iso scoring which might be +1 on a bad team and +.75 on a good team.

I've argued Curry's skills lose less value next to star teammates than Magic's do. Thinking Basketball's given a similar argument. That doesn't necessarily mean Curry's better (for example, Curry could go from +6.0 on a bad team to +6.25 on a good one, while Magic could go from 6.5 on a bad team to +6.26 on a good one)... but it's at least important to consider.

4a. So who's more Scalable? In my definition of scalability, I'd argue Curry > Magic. I'm not sure using your definition, but I'd be open to arguments favoring Magic.

Most Scalable Skill 1: Spacing. Curry >> Magic in absolute terms, and relative to era.
I shouldn't need to the defend this much, haha, but you can see my previous post for details if you'd like.

Most Scalable Skill 2: Finishing. I'd argue Curry > Magic.
70sFan wrote: Why do you think Curry is a better finisher?
To me, the ability to finish a play on offense relies a lot on scoring (preferably scoring that benefits from other teammates / other creators).

I think Curry's scoring advantage speaks for itself haha :lol: Curry's an astronomically superior 3 point shooter (including in finishing roles like off-ball relocation or catch and shoot 3s). He's also a superior cutter and scorer at the rim: in Thinking Basketball's Greatest Peaks episode on Curry (see 18:50), Curry has a good argument as a Tier 1/Tier 2 rim scorer all time among point guards, which is better than Magic. These are better finishing skills.

Most Scalable Skill 3: Passing. Magic >> Curry.
Like spacing, I shouldn't need to defend this much haha :lol:

You argued that passing works well with other creators:
70sFan wrote:I also don't agree that passing doesn't fit well next to other creators. Having more creators is always extremely beneficial for a team. I don't think it's proven that two shooters are necessarily more impacful than two creators.
Point taken! This is true, so perhaps I underrated Magic there. I think what I was more worried about than Magic's passing alone was the necessity for it to be on-ball, which brings us to...

Most Scalable Skill 4: Off-ball offense. Curry > Magic.
Again, this shouldn't need much justification. Curry's pretty much the consensus GOAY off-ball offensive player. Though you do offer some compelling arguments for Magic:
70sFan wrote: Magic's passing isn't strictly attached to him being ball-dominant though. As I said, Magic played with ball-dominant players in his career and it didn't stop him from giving his team massive boost. Magic was a capable off-ball player, of course not in Curry's league but his passing brings enormous value even without dominating the ball.
This might be true that Magic's underrated as a off-ball player. But he still has much more ball-dominant skills/tendencies than the GOAT off-ball offensive player.

Most Scalable Skill 4: Defense (especially team defense / off-ball defense). Curry ~ Magic.
I've argued they're similar in their era (I've argued Magic would lose more today if you care about time machine, though you've pushed back there). Regardless, both of their strengths as defenders are team defense / off-ball, so I see no major portability/scalability advantage here.

Medium Scalable Skill 5: Creation (non-passing/spacing). Curry > Magic.
See my Creation section in the previous post :D

In sum: You're right that Magic might be underrated off-ball and show good portability with his clear passing advantage, but Curry as a huge advantage in Spacing, a sizable advantage Finishing and off-bal, and a clear advantage in (non passing/spacing) creation. To me, if scalability is fitting next to better and better star teammates, Curry wins out.

Though if we take your definition instead, Magic may have an argument.

Addressing a few of your Scalability Counters:
Counter 1: LeBron as a case study.
70sFan wrote:I mean, we have seen another player who isn't close to Curry shooting-wise surpassing Curry's value in the very same era. LeBron isn't really a better shooter than Magic and a lot of advanatges he has over Steph are identical to the ones Magic possesses.
Good point! LeBron does beat Curry in raw value. But then again, Jordan beats Magic. Just because LeBron beats Curry doesn't mean Curry isn't over other Magic at his peak in either raw value or scalability.

Your point about LeBron being stylistically similar to Magic is interesting. It's true that there's some similarities as more heliocentric (or photo-heliocentric) stars and with their on-ball passing. And it's possible that Magic may the scalability edge over LeBron.

But there's problems with taking the LeBron comparison as reason for Magic being over Curry from raw value or scalability. From Raw Value: LeBron's scoring advantage over Magic is massive, and the Defensive advantage over Magic is astronomical, so LeBron's raw value beats Magic too. From scalability: LeBron is clearly less scalable than Curry (not to say he's worse... just that he's less scalable), so the fact that Magic might be LeBron in scalability doesn't mean he's necessarily over Curry.

Counter 2: Who cares about Scalability, what about their actual value?
I've argued Curry's skills lose less value next to star teammates than Magic's do. Thinking Basketball's given a similar argument, and while you've pointed out those rankings are arbitrary, they're based on a similar skill analysis to the one above.

You're right that this doesn't necessarily mean Curry's better on good teams (for example, Curry could go from +6.0 on a bad team to +6.25 on a good one, while Magic could go from 6.5 on a bad team to +6.26 on a good one)... but this analysis suggests Curry at least loses less value next to better teammates than Magic, which is at least 1 contextual factor to consider. For an analysis on what their actual value is (not how it changes with teammates), we'd have to go back to my previous post for a more wholistic impact assessment.

If you prefer a different definition for scalability (e.g. value floor raising > ceiling raising), that would be valid. Or if you don't care about how value changes with different teammates, and just care about who has more value in the context they had, that would also be valid! But those would be different discussions, at least from the one I was having.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#89 » by DraymondGold » Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:03 am

5. Opponents Faced: Magic vs Curry
70sFan wrote:
Thanks for posting these! It's true that Magic on average faced higher defensive opposition than Curry over the course of his prime. And Prime Magic's teams' offensive numbers look great! But I think there's a few things that limit the effectiveness of this argument, at least to me.

A) Curry faced harder defenses at his peak: If we just look at the peak year we're discussing (87 vs 17), Curry's team offense was far more successful against far more difficult average defenses (and remember: Curry's team's offenses were only world-building when Curry was on the court).

We can look at other years though, to conclude that Magic was consistently great against elite defensive competition. That was my point, we shouldn't stick to one year in such comparisions. The bigger sample, the better.

B) Kerr was defense-first: he consistently followed the Popovitch approach of preferring defense-first players over offense-first players. Once Draymond's shot fell off after the 17 Playoffs, the Warriors' best lineup contained 2 non-shooting and non-major scoring threats. Iguodala and Draymond were clearly defensive first guys, whose best offensive skills were their intelligence and their creation. This was going into 2018, when opposing teams (e.g. 18 Rockets) put a priority on having 4+ shooters at once.

So how did these lineups remain so offensively potent? It's pretty clear that Curry's shooting, gravity, and off-ball movement enables Draymond and Iguodala to remain as offensively passable as they were. The film study supports this (e.g. all of Draymond's short-roll passing would be null without the doubles demanded only by Curry and not Klay/KD) and the data supports this (again, the Warriors are only world-beaters with Curry on). This is more of the scalability I mentioned earlier.

That's a good point, but does it explain quite a big difference in actual results? Remember, Magic in 1988-90 period played with wahsed up Kareem or Thompson's father at center, both of whom were bad offensive players at this point. AC Green wasn't bad, but he wasn't a shooter or creator either. For all limitations of Green or bench Warriors players, Curry still had Durant on his side - who was significantly better than any player Magic played with in 1987-91 period.

Magic played mostly with finishers who had no creation ability (outside of Worthy, but he wasn't a great creator either). They didn't have that much of a shooting either, although Scott/Cooper combo certainly helps. The fact that Lakers were GOAT level offensively shows that Magic also boosted good, but limited rosters to the highest level.
Here, we get back to my first question in my last post. What are we considering peak and what are we considering prime?

To me, a peak is anywhere from 1-3 Years. Prime is 4-5+ years. For this debate, we're supposed to be arguing 1 Year peak, and in 1 Year Peak, Curry's team had a better relative offense against harder relative defensive opponents.

It's absolutely true that in a larger sample size (e.g. comparing 1990 or 1991 vs 2019 or 2022), Magic's team's offense comes out over Curry's. And it's true that Magic's teammates by 1990 were more washed up compared to 2019 Curry's (though I'd argue there isn't a difference if we account for the 2019 playoff injuries to KD, Klay, Looney, Cousins, Iguodala). But to me, 1990 would be Magic's 4th year after his true peak in 1987... at that point, we'd be debating prime not peak. To me, the data supports Prime Magic's offense > Curry but Peak Curry's Offense > Magic, for the smaller 1-3 year sample.

Like you say, we can still use 1990 to inform our contextual understanding of 1987. For example, you might argue: "we saw how Magic played a more ball-dominant role in 1990 with a worse team, and his team still had success, so this shapes how I think 1987 Magic might play with worse teammates." You might make a similar argument for Curry like this: "We saw Curry's playoff resilience without KD using the improvements in skill he developed after the 2016 playoff run, so this shapes my opinion of Curry's resilience without KD in 2017." But to me, we shouldn't be taking these players' offensive metrics or their teams' metrics in 1990/1991/2022 as an argument for exactly how much value they had in 1987 or 2017.

70sFan wrote:
C) Peak Curry' still faced far better teams than Peak Magic did. I appreciate the numbers you gave 70sFan! Let me update them to include both the regular season and the playoffs:
Spoiler:
Ordered by average playoff opponent:
1991 Magic’s average playoff opponent: +6.13 (Magic lost)
1990 Magic’s average playoff opponent: +4.70 (Magic lost)
1989 Magic’s average playoff opponent: +4.65 (Magic lost; not adjusted to playoffs)
2017 Curry's average playoff opponent: +4.59 (Curry won)
2022 Curry's average playoff opponent: +4.57 (not adjusted to playoffs)
2016 Curry’s average playoff opponent: 4.26
2018 Curry’s average playoff opponent: 4.1
2019 Curry’s average playoff opponent: +3.95
2015 Curry’s average playoff opponent: +3.4
1985 Magic’s average playoff opponent: +3.17
1988 Magic’s average playoff opponent: +2.88 (not adjusted to playoffs)
1987 Magic's average playoff opponent: +1.53
1986 Magic’s average playoff opponent: +1

Ordered by average playoff defense faced:
1990 Magic’s average opponent defense: -3.80 (Magic lost; not adjusted to playoffs)
2022 Curry's average opponent defense: -2.80 (Curry won; not adjusted to playoffs)
1988 Magic’s average opponent defense: -2.20 (Magic won; not adjusted to playoffs
1991 Magic’s average opponent defense: -1.85 (Magic lost)
2018 Curry’s average opponent defense: -1.18
1989 Magic’s average opponent defense: -1.13
2017 Curry's average opponent defense: -1.04
2015 Curry’s average playoff opponent: -0.97
1985 Magic’s average opponent defense: -0.73
2019 Curry’s average opponent defense: -0.50
2016 Curry’s average opponent defense: -0.10
1987 Magic's average opponent defense: +1.07
1986 Magic’s average opponent defense: +1.99
In literally every single one of Curry's prime playoff years, he faced better average opponents than peak 1987 Magic. The same is true if we take a 3 year peak for Magic from 1986-1988. If we just look at defensive rating, every year Curry won he was facing a harder defense than 1985-1987 Magic.

It's true that Magic's average opponent and opposing defenses got tougher from around 88/89-91. But you'll notice that's when Magic's team started losing... Magic never won in the years he faced harder defenses or harder average opponents than Curry. And remember: Magic's average opponent numbers are slightly overrated vs Curry's, because Magic only played 3-game series in the first round. If we just look at hardest opponent, the 2017 Cavs were a harder opponent than any team Magic ever beat from 1985-1991.


Thanks for more detalied numbers :)

To be completely fair, Magic got injured in 1989 finals which destroyed Lakers chance of winning the title. In contrast, Kawhi got injured in 2017 WCF, so the numbers clearly overstate Warriors opponents strength in 2017.
. Glad you liked them! :) There's other injuries I could mention too :wink: Curry's injury in 2016 Playoffs reduced both his numbers and his team's numbers in what might have been his true peak. Together with Draymond's suspension and Bogut's injury (and other contextual factors), I'd argue Curry's 2016 title chances were dented by quite a bit, just like 1989 (though I'm glad you brought 89 Magic's injury -- that's important context). Curry was also injured in 2018. In 2019, Curry was relatively healthy, but the Warriors had KD/Klay/Looney/Cousins/Iguodala injured at various points.

You mention Kawhi's 2017 injury making their 2017 playoff opponents easier. That's absolutely true! But estimates of the impact of Kawhi's injury to the Warriors' opponent SRS put the "injury-adjusted playoff opponent SRS" at around +3.53. Even adjusting for only Curry's opponent injuries, 2017 Curry still faced a harder playoff route than 1985 Magic, 1986 Magic, 1987 Magic, and 1988 Magic. This is true whether we go by average opponent or hardest opponent (not sure how it changes defensive rating specifically).

Magic also benefited from opponent injuries. For example, in the 1987 Walton couldn't play at all, and McHale was nursing an ankle injury throughout the entire finals.

70sFan wrote:Either way, it looks that overall Magic faced slightly better defensive competition in 1987-91 vs Curry in 2015-22, but Curry faced better teams on average. I don't think the gap is that significant.
For Primes, I tend to agree!

If I were to go slightly more granular:

1 Year Peak Average Opponent: 2017 Curry > 2017 Curry (adjusting for opponent injuries) > 1987 Magic > 1987 Magic (adjusting for opponent injuries)
1 Year Peak Hardest Opponent beaten: 2017 Curry > 1987 Magic > 1987 Magic (adjusting for opponent injuries)
1 Year Peak Opponent Defense: 2017 Curry > 1987 Magic (not sure about adjusting for opponent injuries)

3 Year Peak Average Opponent: Curry > Magic (this holds for either 15-17 or 17-19 Curry even when accounting for opponent injury)
3 Year Peak Hardest Opponent beaten: Curry > Magic
3 Year Peak Opponent Defense: Magic > Curry (Curry had harder average if we take 17-19, Magic had harder average if we take Curry 15-17, Magic faced the harder opposition in 1989 regardless).

5 Year Prime Average Opponent: 87-91 Magic > 15-19 Curry > 86-90 Magic
5 Year Prime Hardest Opponent beaten: 15-19 Curry > 86-90 Magic (though Magic lost to harder playoff opponents Curry's hardest opponent, the 17 Cavs).
5 Year Prime Opponent Defense: 86-90 Magic > 15-19 Curry

Anyway, I think the crux of our disagreement stems from how long to consider peak, and how much to incorporate Prime data when considering peak. In smaller samples like 1-3 years, I think Curry comes out on top. In larger 4-5+ year samples (which you consider either peak or relevant to peak, while I consider them prime), I think Magic comes out on top.

6. Time Machine Argument
And to reiterate, Curry was playing at a time of more complex and optimized offensive/defensive schemes (per Doctor MJ) and a massive increase in the talent pool (almost 10x as many international players per Ty 4191).

I know that, but I don't use time machine or era comparisons arguments too much. You see me voting for Mikan recently after all :wink:
I do indeed! :lol: And that's perfectly valid, to each their own. Perhaps I should take a closer look at Mikan's metrics/film to make sure I'm not missing something...

In some ways, I sort of find this project similar to the MVP discussion. Everyone has slightly different criteria! What I appreciate about this discussion is that most people are willing to discuss their criteria and consider alternatives, quite unlike the media's MVP discussion.

On a different note, I hope I haven't been harping on Curry too much. When you start voting for the same player for numerous ballots in a row, you're faced with a conundrum... do you just copy-paste the same arguments without further discussion? Try to offer additional evidence/discuss more with people in the hopes of convincing some? Or just give up, assume people can't change their minds on said player, and focus on discussing the other people? I've tried to go the 2nd route (I tend to hope everyone here is willing to consider a different perspective, me included!) -- I just hope I didn't do this at the cost of too much discussion of other players like Russell/Duncan, etc.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#90 » by homecourtloss » Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:08 am

DraymondGold wrote:I think we have to ask ourselves: Why does Curry consistently create better shots for his teammates and improve his teammates' efficiency more than older LeBron, Harden, Jokic, Luka, Westbrook, and older Chris Paul, whether we're looking at a 1-year peak or a 5 Year prime? Where does this playmaking come from?


Good contributions as per usual!

About the quoted: do you have definitive numbers to support this claim?
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#91 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:19 am

70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Let me first do an analysis and see if I can spot the outlier using a seemingly unrelated number.

Shaq 0
Kareem 0
Wilt 0
Duncan 0
Hakeem 0
Russell 2
Jokic 40

I think we can all spot the outlier here, and can probably tell right away this has something to do with the draft.

The number represents the number of draft choices teams made where they picked someone other than the player in question before that player got picked.

It's interesting that Russell shows up here as the only other big man that an NBA team dared to pass up, given that he certainly represents a considerably greater innovation in the game than any of the 0's in the gang. It's a bit of a fluke , because the Celtics famously arranged for this to happen, and Russell just led his college team to back to back titles in college - aka, the only thing that mattered back then - and that much of the conversation as to why teams wouldn't pick him involved race.

Now, with Jokic, clearly there's an argument here that something huge that has to be considered in Jokic being an international player who didn't come to play college in the US. But I think we all have to honest with ourselves when we answer the following question:

Would we have seen Jokic as an all-time great level NBA prospect if he spent a year in college? 2? 4? What would he have had to do at the college level to convince you that he'd be able to thrive to astonishing scale he has today?

I think you underestimate how big of an impact Jokic not playing in college had for the draft choice. Most scouts didn't have a good knowledge about his game when he came in and it's visible when you read their scouting reports after all these years. I don't understand why, but Americans always thought that somehow watching young player in college can give you a better graps at his potential than looking at his development in Europe. I think had Jokic been an American and play in the US high school and college would improve his final finish in draft significantly.

Another thing regarding Jokic is that his physical profile isn't very promising. Let's be honest, most scouts ignore actual basketball skills, looking for the highest physical potential available. I don't say it's fair, I have a lot of concerns about scouting system (especially almost a decade ago), but that's the fact. I wouldn't say that race has anything to do with it, but Jokic being relatively unathletic and not in great shape certainly didn't help him.


Oh I was trying to make clear that I understood that college would have helped a great deal, but let's be real here:

When was the last time a white player got drafted first?

Answer: Andrea Bargnani. And the effect of Bargnani, along with Darko, was to severely damage both white prospects and European prospects going forward...which had everything to do with why Luka slid to the #3 slot despite largely playing like an American helio and dominating Europe at an early age.

When you add in that Jokic was not visibly athletic, and excelled at the game in such an unusual way, I think you're fooling yourself if you think him playing in college was going to be the thing that made him be a Shaq/Duncan level prospect. More realistically, nothing was going to convince NBA people of this other than him doing it in the NBA.

And to the extent we're agreeing - because you're saying this stuff - just remember the central point here is this:

If all these other guys were able to be acknowledged as a #1 level prospect, then that means they weren't that different from the scout's wet dream of the time was, which means they weren't all utterly unique snowflakes.

Jokic is almost certainly the least likely prospect to become an MVP in NBA history, and that's not just some fluke thing. It had to do with how different his outlier gifts are compared to the outlier gifts of these other players.

70sFan wrote:
I am skeptical there's anything he could have done that would have convinced NBA GM's that he could scale whatever success he had in college to the pros like he has. And yeah, race is a thing here, but it ain't the only thing, not by a long shot. What NBA team sets out and says "Y'know, let draft a guy who kinda plays like Walton so we can play one of those beautiful old-timey pivot-passer offenses!"? None of them, and not because no one ever thought of it before, but because it died a long time ago. Yet Jokic is such a colossal outlier of a talent, that he essentially forced it's re-birth (though credit to Malone and the Nuggets for running with it).


I don't think it changes anything I said though. Jokic basically plays 1970s center role on offense, previously representated by Walton, Cowens, Unseld, Lacey and other all-stars from that era. He took it to another level with his scoring repertoire and shooting, but it's not something he invented out of nowhere.


I didn't say he originated it. I've been pretty explicit about the roots in the 1920s that first let to this style of play.

The point is that no NBA team wanted to play this way in 2014 when Jokic was drafted. This wasn't a thing where they asked him to play like Bill Walton. It was a thing where he just started doing his thing, and the coach adapted the scheme around Jokic. I'd hope the coach was thinking about Walton (would be great if he was thinking about Dehnert too, but who knows), but none of that changes the fact that this was something the Nuggets did in reaction to having Jokic on their team playing and impressing.

I should take the opportunity though to pick your brain on the '70s 70sFan.

I'm certainly aware that there were centers back then more known for their passing than centers came to be known in the '80s & '90s, but I've always had the impression that philosophically Jack Ramsay's Blazer offense was pretty distinct from the rest. I'm getting the impression now that you would not agree with this.

What are you thoughts?

70sFan wrote:
All this to say, I think it's pretty clear that Jokic is more unusual than these other cases, and attempts to say "but they are all unique in their own way!" just get in the way of doing some analysis that's really worth doing. Jokic's emergence is the most out-of-left-field rise of an all-time great the NBA has probably ever seen, and that's precisely why understanding the ingredients of that rise in particular are so fundamentally interesting.

I didn't want to imply that Jokic isn't unique. In fact, I wouldn't argue when you say he's more unique than other players already voted in, but that's not my point. My point is that you can have a pretty good view on what works in contemporary era, until some amazing talent arrives and destroys everything you believed was true. I'm quite positive that you wouldn't say that role can work in modern era before Jokic came in. I'm quite sure that Walton wouldn't be a top tier prospect in the 2010s, like he was in reality. So isn't that proving my point - that we don't really know which elite player would work today and which not?

By the way, just because people recognise Shaq's talent more than Jokic's, it doesn't mean that Jokic is more unique. As I mentioned, quite a few center played similar role to Jokic throughout the history, mostly in 1970s. We have seen successful bigs playing similar role in the 2000s as well - Gasol bros and Divac are the best examples. Jokic took it to another level with his shooting and scoring repertoire, but it's not something that has never been seen before. In comparison, we've never seen anyone playing like Shaq before or since. We haven't seen even a poor man's Shaq versions before or after his retirement. He was easier to appreciate because of his physical profile, but he wasn't easier to replicate.

Nobody could ever imagine a player becoming the best offensive force in the league strictly by being big, strong and using it to a full advantage. Shaq didn't have a shooting touch, couldn't score outside of 10 feet consistently and wasn't a strong defender. It sounds like a disaster in any era, but he made it work.


The scale of Shaq's talent maybe as much of an outlier or more than Jokic, but he did what he did by taking the basic stuff that was done before, and doing it with a combination of power and agility that was unmatched, rather than doing something that people weren't looking for him to do.

And the same would have been true if he were born in earlier eras. He immediately stuck everybody as "Fitting the mold, but possibly with more talent than ever before", and that's a very different thing than Jokic.

Now, it's within the realm of possibility that in decades to come everyone will start to look for more Jokics, and that they'll find others who can do it as well as Jokic considerably more easily than they can find guys who can be better Shaqs than Shaq. At that point, calling Jokic "unique" wouldn't be the best word to use, but what I'm trying to get at now is the surprise associated with Jokic's rise which is so unprecedented in NBA history, and the fact that there's far more to it than simply him not playing in college.

Re: Divac & Gasol Brothers, Jokic different by "shooting and scoring repertoire". So, I have 2 thoughts here.

1. Do you not see a difference in Jokic's speed and creativity in action selection? Were Jokic simply this good of a shooter and scorer, teams may build around him, but they wouldn't build around him in the style that they have. It's a style built around his decision making more so than his scoring capacity, and to me it seemed to just bubble up whenever Jokic was on the court right from the start of his career. When a guy makes decisions so quickly once he gets the ball, his presence cannot help but shape your style.

2. However, even I were to grant comparable rapid/ingenious playmaking capacity with these European bigs, it then raises the question:

So why didn't they develop into a scheme that looks like the Jokic Nuggets around them? Pau Gasol was the focal point of the Grizzlies. Those Grizzlies didn't look like these Nuggets. Should they have? If they should have, then what we're talking about here with Jokic is him being a spearhead for the (re)emergence type of big that - however much you and I might point to past examples of it - was not being viewed as a viable option until Jokic came in and did his thing.

70sFan wrote:
The "just fine" conclusion, to me, blocks further analysis.

I'll go out on a limb and say you're not trying to say that you whole-heartedly believe that a player's ability to add value across different eras stays precisely the same. (2.5 sigma then, 2.5 sigma now!) or that it can be properly estimated just by some scaling value based on some kind of talent skill/factor. Probably rather more like you'd expect something within a certain range of variance to be very likely.

But how are you thinking through the game when you say, "Eh, they'll probably do just fine"? You're not.

By contrast, if you actually try to project a player into a different context where you know specific things are different, you're actively thinking about basketball and developing the models in your brain...which is to me the goal of the analyses we do here.

I'm not looking to suggest that you, 70sFan, don't think through the game. I know you do because I've seen your video work, and your descriptions of what you've gleaned from it. You're an active student of the game...but I would suggest that here you're missing an additional opportunity to study the game if you don't try to model and project as you do your rankings.

I think you focused way too much on my last sentence here. I didn't say that we should just decide that all great players would be great, no matter what. My point is that you focus on why certain players (mostly bigs) wouldn't be so good today, but being too narrow minded in this approach can lead you to wrong conclusions. Some of these players could bring skills or abilities on the court that would be amplified by modern game in a way that wasn't possible back when they played.

I don't say that all of them would translate effortlessly to 2022 NBA. I have quite a lot of concerns about Shaq for example. At the same time though, we shouldn't ignore that Shaq was just outlier among outliers and he might not only overcome obstacles created in a new environment, but even thrive in it after adjustments. I wouldn't bet on it, but we shouldn't be too strong about our completely hypothetical approach. I also disagree that all of them would see a rapid decrease of impact in modern game, but that's not my actual point here.

As a reminder, I don't think anyone would say that Jokic or Giannis would be hyper successful in modern era, but they are :wink: \


My friend, I don't think I focused too much on those words, because everything you're doing here is still refraining from taking a stand. Humility when projecting from one era to the next is a virtue, but actually refusing to project from one era to the next when you're in a situation where it's an obvious thing to try to do, is effectively punting on a subject you're not always punting on, which leads us to ask why, when doing ranking, you're not applying everything you bring to the table. Is it because you seeing being proactively wrong as something of a great analytic sin while being passively wrong is not? Is it because you love the styles played in earlier eras and are not interested in contributing to the perception of their obsolescence?

Then there's the whole that most folks here are not going to rank George Mikan like a candidate for #1 or anywhere close to it. How can that be justified without some use of era projection? I realize many will point to the idea of increasing talent pool, but I think realistically the reason why we're so sure of the increasing talent pool, is because of the superstar talent we've witnessed come of age in the eras after, and the certainty that these players would get the better of Mikan if they played in the same league. If this can be done with Mikan? Why shouldn't it be done as a matter of course?

Again, you're bringing plenty to the table 70sFan and I love reading your posts. But even if you bringing 90% of your game to the table on a thing is more than 100% for most of us, you're still not bringing your whole bag.

70sFan wrote:
Can you be wrong when you model? Of course, because you're always going to be wrong no matter what you do. You're going to have stuff you think you know that is not so. The question is only whether you can work to paint a more accurate picture over time, by whatever means you can gain traction with.


I agree and that's why we shouldn't stop at our models and we also should take into account what actually happened. Maybe Shaq would be a scrub today, who knows? Is it fair to judge him that way though, when we have no evidences of this being true?

I think we need to find balance, time machine argument is always interesting but in the end, it's only a projection of our philosophical view on the game. I find it often useful, but it shouldn't be the deciding point of our analysis.[/quote]

To your initial questions here:

Leaving aside the hyperbole of the "scrub" comment, what constitutes "evidence" for you in this project? What are you relying upon when you have to compare guys who never played against each other?

Re: only a projection of our philosophical view on the game. Let me tweak that:

It's only a projection of our schema of what we know and how we think about the game.

My last question to you would be: What makes you say your approach here is something different?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#92 » by DraymondGold » Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:30 am

homecourtloss wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:I think we have to ask ourselves: Why does Curry consistently create better shots for his teammates and improve his teammates' efficiency more than older LeBron, Harden, Jokic, Luka, Westbrook, and older Chris Paul, whether we're looking at a 1-year peak or a 5 Year prime? Where does this playmaking come from?


Good contributions as per usual!

About the quoted: do you have definitive numbers to support this claim?
Aww, thanks :D And I sure do! Though perhaps I shouldn't have hidden them away in links that are themselves hidden by a spoiler tag haha. :lol:

1 Year Peak: Curry +7.3% (1st in league) >> older LeBron +3.9% (2nd in league) > peak Westbrook +2.5% (3rd in league)
[Metric: teammates' shooting percentage improvement when a star is on court vs when they're off. Sample: among top players in 2017]
5 Year Peak: Curry +0.07 (1st in league) > Trae Young +0.06 (2nd in league) > Nikola Jokic +0.06 (3rd in league) > LeBron James +0.05 (4th in league)
[Metric: teammates' increased pts/shot when a star is on vs off, aided by tracking data. Sample: 2018-2022]

To be clear, these are "Playmaking Efficiency" measures as opposed to "Playmaking volume." It wouldn't shock me if some of the other top playmakers had better "playmaking volume," and you can certainly argue those players over Curry from a Playmaking Volume perspective (though we can't just count assists here -- we'd need to include screening/secondary assists/gravity etc.). But to reiterate, Curry's playmaking efficiency is seriously GOAT level.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#93 » by ceoofkobefans » Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:46 am

SickMother wrote:01 Erving 75-76: 28.7 PER | .569 TS% | 110 TS+ | 17.7 WS | .262 WS/48
01 Erving 75-76 Playoffs?!?: 32.0 PER | .610 TS% | 3.7 WS | .321 WS/48
[a peak so high the NBA absorbed a whole other league to get this guy under their banner. Doctor turned in a top tier regular season, then followed it up with one of thee largest postseason efficiency increases of all time.]

02 Magic 86-87: 27.0 PER | .602 TS% | 112 TS+ | 15.9 WS | .263 WS/48
02 Magic 86-87 Playoffs?!?: 26.2 PER | .607 TS% | 3.7 WS | .265 WS/48
[topped the league in assists with career best scoring volume en route to 65-17 regular season, 8.32 SRS & a smooth 15-3 postseason cruise. Peak Magic Showtime.]

03 Larry 85-86: 25.6 PER | .580 TS% | 107 TS+ | 15.8 WS | .244 WS/48
03 Larry 85-86 Playoffs?!?: 23.9 PER | .615 TS% | 4.2 WS | .263 WS/48
[went back & forth on who to place higher between Magic & Larry, but ultimately gave the edge to Johnson on the strength of a stronger regular season.]



Julius Erving this High is crazy I can’t lie. Really don’t see what how you’re so high on him. Yea he has some really good playoff numbers but he’s never come close to replicating this in the ABA (his NBA numbers are noticeably worse than his ABA numbers) and even when ignoring that is he really better in the ABA than Magic bird or A lot of other people were in the NBA?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#94 » by OhayoKD » Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:14 am

70sFan wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:1. Portability: Curry > Magic
Hi y'all! I think "Curry is a better shooter" is underselling it by a bit haha. Curry's the GOAT shooter, and one of the greatest outliers in any NBA skills ever, and it just happens to be one of the most valuable offensive skills ever, and one of the most portable skills ever.

And this advantage isn't small either. Magic's 3P% is 20.5% in 1987 (and 21% from 86-88). To be clear, Magic did show that he could improve as a 3 point shooter in 89-91, but he didn't yet have that improvement for the peak year we're arguing, or even the surrounding years.

Maybe I didn't specify well what I meant by that, because I never argued that Curry is "just a better shooter" than Magic. He's significantly better, tiers ahead. Everybody knows that :wink: The question is how much of a value it has in comparison to Magic's advantages. Quite a lot of people recently believe that Curry's shooting is enough to put him ahead of any player, but I want strong evidences for that. Curry didn't anchor better offensive teams than Magic. He looks top tier in imapct metrics, but the little we have from Magic shows him just as spectacular.

I mean, we have seen another player who isn't close to Curry shooting-wise surpassing Curry's value in the very same era. LeBron isn't really a better shooter than Magic and a lot of advanatges he has over Steph are identical to the ones Magic possesses. Unlike LeBron, Magic proved consistently that his style of play was very scalable and portable with various different roles.


Lebron has provided jordan level impact without spacing multiple times, has won rings with three different teams playing three very different styles of ball while having atg impact at every postition on the floor(except for center). How is Magic more "scalable/portable with various different roles"?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#95 » by falcolombardi » Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:32 am

DraymondGold wrote:4. Portability: Magic vs Curry
70sFan wrote:Unlike LeBron, Magic proved consistently that his style of play was very scalable and portable with various different roles
. [/quote]

[b][i]For example, if we have lots of ball-dominant iso scorer on a team, there won't be as much time or opportunities for these ball dominant scorers


I've argued Curry's skills lose less value next to star teammates than Magic's do.

But there's problems with taking the LeBron comparison as reason for Magic being over Curry from raw value or scalability. From Raw Value: LeBron's scoring advantage over Magic is massive,


I've argued Curry's skills lose less value next to star teammates than Magic's do.

If you prefer a different definition for scalability (e.g. value floor raising > ceiling raising), that would be valid.
Or if you don't care about how value changes with different teammates, and just care about who has more value in the context they had, that would also be valid! But those would be different discussions, at least from the one I was having.


So some questions right off the bat

RE: magic vs lebron

Unrelated but i am unsure why you think magic is much more "scalable" than lebron here

If your definition of scalable is related to how much they dominate the ball then both of them are primarily ballhandlers with solid but not huge spacing/spot up shooting value, but lebron adds more value in the defensive end

That is the most portable of all skills even if sometiems portability is only talked about with regards to shooting and offense movement and some small but additive with thinghs like being a lob threat or a stronger cutting threath

RE: On-ball creators losing value next to other ones

You mention that if there are multiple isolation scorers their value will be reduced but that feels a bit like saying that a center loses offensive value ifhe shares the paint with other 2 centers. Is the truth but no decently built team should worry about having more than 3 iso scorers at most in their team construction.

A smart team will realize they dont need 4 on-ball creators for 1 ball and will look to have 2 main ballhandler options as a goal, a 3rd one when possible is nice to have but not a huge priority

We have seen how effective having more than one creator is. both when they share the court (stamina preservation, one being doubled) and by staggering them with bench units so having more than 1 creator or more than 1 scorer who can create his scoring is a great thingh to have.

RE: magic losing more value next to better teammates

You think magic and curry have comparable defense so is clear you are talking about offensive value

Does the fact magic led the greatest offensive dinasty of all time not make us question this? He has stronger offenses when playing with talented teanmates than curry does. If magic with talent has better offenses than curry with talent is curry really the better ceiling raiser here?

You have mebtioned how much better warriors were with curry alone than with durant alone or how the warriors with curry are almost as godd as the warriors with curry and durant.

Is not that the evidence always used to diminish lebron portability? That offenses with him and wade were not much better off than with lebron alone? Why does curry not get the same treatment here? (I wouldnt agree but for consistency sake)

I would consider both reasonings dumb btw, just pointing it out

RE: lebron scoring volume vs magic

So lebron and jordan score way more than magic or nash, yet when we look at offensive impact metrics and team offense results is actually not clear at all the former are the clearly better offensive players

While is a good indicator i dont thin raw scoring + creation production is a 1:1 indicator of offensive impact. Not all creation is captured by assists nor is all creation worth the same

RE: TLDR

i dont think we can really say magic is less portable with offensive talent or less of a ceiling raiser than curry based only on theory when we have saw both play with talented offensive teammates and magic did it better relative to era

The whole analysis seems to prioritize theory over data to a strong degree when the player who created better offenses when playing with talent is assumed by default to be the worse ceiling raiser amd less scalable players.

I also find it a bit odd (not so much for magic case as lebron one) that defense is rarely considered as part of ceiking raising but that is a different discussion
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#96 » by SickMother » Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:44 am

ceoofkobefans wrote:Julius Erving this High is crazy I can’t lie. Really don’t see what how you’re so high on him. Yea he has some really good playoff numbers but he’s never come close to replicating this in the ABA (his NBA numbers are noticeably worse than his ABA numbers) and even when ignoring that is he really better in the ABA than Magic bird or A lot of other people were in the NBA?


How much worse was Erving's 1975-76 ABA competition compared to what 1963-64 Russell or 1966-67 Wilt who already made the list faced?

Of course Erving never replicated those numbers, 75-76 was his peak. But he came close plenty of times, leading the league in PER, Win Shares, WS/48 & BPM numerous times in the regular/post season throughout both his ABA & NBA careers...

PER
RS: 73, 74, 75, 76, 80
PS: 72, 74, 76, 82

Win Shares
RS: 74, 75, 76
PS: 72, 74, 76, 77, 82

WS/48
RS: 74, 75, 76, 81, 82
PS: 72, 74, 76

BPM
RS: 74, 75, 76, 80, 81, 82
PS: 74, 76

Erving could score with volume & efficiency, he rebounded, he defended, his size & athleticism on the wing play in any era. Before Magic & Larry "saved" the NBA, Julius was the most exciting thing on the hardwood & his high flying style paved the way for things to come.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#97 » by ceoofkobefans » Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:28 am

Erving just doesn’t compare to those 2 offensively which really makes the difference.

You don’t get that much worse in the middle of your prime 1 year after your peak because of regression lol especially with a better situation. I’m not denying that he’s not great he’s just not this tier of player. Idek if I’d take him over Russ or Barkley let alone 2 guys with t10 peak arguments.

Julius was an all time scorer but he’s not much better than bird who’s a significantly better playmaker and is much more portable than Erving is. Magic isn’t much more portable than Erving but he the gap in their O is bigger than gap between bird and Erving.

Dr J benefitted from playing in a weaker league but again I dont even think he’s better in the ABA than they are in the NBA.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#98 » by SickMother » Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:24 am

ceoofkobefans wrote:Erving just doesn’t compare to those 2 offensively which really makes the difference.


Offensively, peak Erving is pretty close to Magic (3-3) & beats Bird (5-1)...

75-76 Erving
RS: 11.7 OWS | 8.1 OBPM | 116 ORtg
PS: 2.8 OWS | 11.8 OBPM | 128 ORtg

86-87 Magic
RS: 12.1 OWS | 7.5 OBPM | 124 ORtg
PS: 2.6 OWS | 7.3 OBPM | 129 ORtg

85-85 Bird
RS: 9.6 OWS | 6.6 OBPM | 117 ORtg
PS: 2.7 OWS | 7.2 OBPM | 117 ORtg

Defensively, peak Erving is about even with Bird (2-3-1) & beats Magic (5-1)....

75-76 Erving
RS: 6.0 DWS | 2.5 DBPM | 97 DRtg
PS: 0.8 DWS | 2.2 DBPM | 103 DRtg

85-86 Bird
RS: 6.2 DWS | 2.1 DBPM | 99 DRtg
PS: 1.5 DWS | 2.6 DBPM | 103 DRtg

86-87 Magic
RS: 3.8 DWS | 1.3 DBPM | 106 DRtg
PS: 1.1 DWS | 2.1 DBPM | 107 DRtg

Add it all up & Dr. J is 8-4 vs Magic and 7-4-1 vs Bird.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#99 » by DraymondGold » Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:46 am

Re: Doctor MJ and 70s Fan's discussion of positions and centers, I don't have too much to add, but I thought I'd mention a fun fact that might be relevant:

Thinking Basketball did a study that found Big Men overall have declined in plus minus value and have also lost resilience in the playoffs. There's a clear trend from the dead-ball era (97-04) to the start of the 3 point revolution (05-15) to today (16-20+), where Centers lose average value and drop more in the playoffs in each era. Guards and wings on the other hand have been increasing in both overall value and playoff resilience.

Now if we're to hypothesize...
On offense: people have obviously realized shooting is valuable, especially if paired with playmaking (and this combination tends to be found in non-bigs, though of course this is a trend and not an absolute rule).
On defense: there's an increasing strategy of aggressively picking on defensive liabilities in the playoffs, and more often than not, these players with liabilities are big men who can't guard the perimeter more often than the small player who can't guard the big when there's help defense (the mismatch that generates the open 3 is usually better offense than the mismatch that generates the post-up shot, though again this is a trend and not an absolute rule)
____________
falcolombardi wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:4. Portability: Magic vs Curry
70sFan wrote:Unlike LeBron, Magic proved consistently that his style of play was very scalable and portable with various different roles
. [/quote]

[b][i]For example, if we have lots of ball-dominant iso scorer on a team, there won't be as much time or opportunities for these ball dominant scorers


I've argued Curry's skills lose less value next to star teammates than Magic's do.

But there's problems with taking the LeBron comparison as reason for Magic being over Curry from raw value or scalability. From Raw Value: LeBron's scoring advantage over Magic is massive,


I've argued Curry's skills lose less value next to star teammates than Magic's do.

If you prefer a different definition for scalability (e.g. value floor raising > ceiling raising), that would be valid.
Or if you don't care about how value changes with different teammates, and just care about who has more value in the context they had, that would also be valid! But those would be different discussions, at least from the one I was having.


So some questions right off the bat

RE: magic vs lebron

Unrelated but i am unsure why you think magic is much more "scalable" than lebron here

If your definition of scalable is related to how much they dominate the ball then both of them are primarily ballhandlers with solid but not huge spacing/spot up shooting value, but lebron adds more value in the defensive end

That is the most portable of all skills even if sometiems portability is only talked about with regards to shooting and offense movement and some small but additive with thinghs like being a lob threat or a stronger cutting threath
Hi! Perhaps I should have clarified, but I meant to say I was talking about offensive scalability rather than overall scalability -- you're right that LeBron's defense would remain with better teammates, so I'm glad you pointed that out!

And I'm not married to the idea that Magic's must be much more scalable than LeBron. I do think there are times when LeBron is less scalable (2009/2010 for instance), but there are times when LeBron is slightly more scalable, and Magic's advantage isn't huge there. I just haven't looked into the data or the film specifically on Relative Shooting and off-ball play (vs LeBron) to reject 70sFan's argument that Magic was better in those two areas. Magic might not be, but I hadn't looked closely enough or seen enough counter-evidence yet to doubt 70sFan's summary.

falcolombardi wrote:RE: On-ball creators losing value next to other ones

You mention that if there are multiple isolation scorers their value will be reduced but that feels a bit like saying that a center loses offensive value ifhe shares the paint with other 2 centers. Is the truth but no decently built team should worry about having more than 3 iso scorers at most in their team construction.

A smart team will realize they dont need 4 on-ball creators for 1 ball and will look to have 2 main ballhandler options as a goal, a 3rd one when possible is nice to have but not a huge priority

We have seen how effective having more than one creator is. both when they share the court (stamina preservation, one being doubled) and by staggering them with bench units so having more than 1 creator or more than 1 scorer who can create his scoring is a great thingh to have.
Good points! And I'm glad you brought this up. To my eye, the data supports that we even start getting diminishing returns with just 2 on-ball / ball-dominant players. And there's absolutely teams that have 2 ball-dominant players.

Let's take LeBron and Wade as an example. From 2012-2014:
Team SRS without wade: 57-win pace. --> Team SRS with wade: 59-win pace by
Team relative Offense without wade: +8.5. --> Team relative Offense with wade: +7.9.
LeBron's Pts/75 without Wade: ~32.7 --> LeBron's Pts/75 with Wade: ~ 24.5 (by-eye estimate from looking at graph)
LeBron's rTS% without Wade: +8.8%. --> LeBron's rTS% with Wade: +7%
LeBron's APM also dips when playing with Wade and the Heat. [Sources: Thinking Basketball's Greatest Peaks LeBron video, and Backpicks Goat #3 LeBron article]
So: in all these metrics, the only one that improved by adding Wade to LeBron was the team's win, and they only improved by a 2-win pace.... Meanwhile, the offense got slightly worse, LeBron's scoring took a massive dip that remained in the playoffs, LeBron's efficiency actually got worse despite the lower volume, and LeBron's plus-minus estimates got worse. That's a pretty bad case of diminishing returns for a team that was touted as saying they'd win "Not one, not two not three..." but 8 championships! And it's not like it was all talk -- plenty of fans and media people thought the same thing.

The question is... why? Why are there these diminishing returns? Sure, credit to LeBron for being so good without Wade, but why weren't they world-beaters when they added Wade? Sure, Wade got older and more injury prone, but still... was he so old that the offense should get worse with him and LeBron on the court?

The answer that makes the most sense to me is my interpretation of scalability. This suggests that some skillsets retain more value next to better teammates. To be clear, creation is more scalable than iso scoring, but off-ball skills, spacing, shooting, and defense tend to be most scalable. We can find similar cases of diminishing returns in the statistics when we look at other ball-dominant players and ball-dominant scorers being paired up.

falcolombardi wrote:RE: magic losing more value next to better teammates

You think magic and curry have comparable defense so is clear you are talking about offensive value

Does the fact magic led the greatest offensive dinasty of all time not make us question this? He has stronger offenses when playing with talented teanmates than curry does. If magic with talent has better offenses than curry with talent is curry really the better ceiling raiser here?
. Ah, here we come back to the sample size issue. Because Magic actually didn't lead the greatest offensive team of all time, in either 1-year or 2-year samples. Curry's best regular season offense beats any regular season offense Magic ever led, even relative to league. And Curry's best postseason offense beats any postseason offense Magic ever led, even relative to league. Where Magic's teams catch up to Curry and pass them (in relative offense) is once we stop looking at 1/2/3 year peaks and start looking at 4/5/6 year primes.

For those larger samples, if you want to blame Curry, fine. If you're swayed by the contextual arguments I made (A B and C in one of my replies to 70sFan), also fine. But for peaks, Curry led a greater relative offense than Magic, which I think supports the portability point.

falcolombardi wrote:You have mebtioned how much better warriors were with curry alone than with durant alone or how the warriors with curry are almost as godd as the warriors with curry and durant.

Is not that the evidence always used to diminish lebron portability? That offenses with him and wade were not much better off than with lebron alone? Why does curry not get the same treatment here? (I wouldnt agree but for consistency sake)
. Love this question. Seriously! I appreciate the call for consistency. Let me explain how I see it, and let me know if you think I'm being inconsistent. Here's how I think about it:

Curry and LeBron's teams are both great with just them on the court as the lone star, especially on offense. Cool, so I'm guessing these LeBron and Curry guys are pretty good!

When LeBron's fellow stars come on, many of LeBron's individual metrics drop quite a bit. The scoring and efficiency both drop, with a particularly large scoring drop. There's also a drop in wholistic metrics (e.g. APM).
When Curry's fellow stars come on, Curry's individual metrics are far less clear. The scoring drops, but it's over 40% less of a drop than LeBron, and the efficiency actually improves with the smaller volume. There's also less of a clear drop in wholistic metrics.
Hmm... this Curry guy seems to fit better next to good teammates than LeBron's. At least, his individual stats suggest that. What about team performance?

When LeBron's fellow stars come on, his team improves by 2 wins. Wait... 2 wins?? That's it?!?
When Curry's fellow stars come on, his team improves from +10.81 (still better than the 86 Boston Celtics) to +17 (significantly% better than the 1996 Bulls!)
That's crazy! I didn't think any team would even get close to +15 in my lifetime, much less +17. How do they keep getting so good?

So yeah, since Curry's teams are only good when he's on the court, I tend to think Curry's the "special sauce" that makes it work (which is why I give him such credit for his team's performances). But we still see far fewer diminishing returns next to great teammates compared to other stars in his era, I tend to credit him for his portability too. Let me know if this seems inconsistent!

falcolombardi wrote:RE: lebron scoring volume vs magic

So lebron and jordan score way more than magic or nash, yet when we look at offensive impact metrics and team offense results is actually not clear at all the former are the clearly better offensive players

While is a good indicator i dont thin raw scoring + creation production is a 1:1 indicator of offensive impact. Not all creation is captured by assists nor is all creation worth the same
. So true! :D

falcolombardi wrote:RE: TLDR

i dont think we can really say magic is less portable with offensive talent or less of a ceiling raiser than curry based only on theory when we have saw both play with talented offensive teammates and magic did it better relative to era

The whole analysis seems to prioritize theory over data to a strong degree when the player who created better offenses when playing with talent is assumed by default to be the worse ceiling raiser amd less scalable players.

I also find it a bit odd (not so much for magic case as lebron one) that defense is rarely considered as part of ceiking raising but that is a different discussion
I think I've explained why I disagree. It's not just theory -- there's plenty of evidence to support it. As to whether you're convinced by the evidence, that's up to you. Let me know if you disagree with anything!
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #9 

Post#100 » by ardee » Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:33 am

1. 1986 Larry Bird (HM: 1987)

Well ahead of his time, probably the first stretch 4 ever who just happened to play on a team with Parish and McHale so he played the 3. He anchored one of the top 3 teams of all time (along with the '96 Bulls and '17 Warriors) with probably a top 5 offensive peak and was still a positive defender overall (watch the 1986 Finals, Bird's help on Hakeem was a pretty big difference maker imo).

2. 1987 Magic Johnson (HM: 1990)

I think I've been underrating him recently. The '87 Lakers had a 115.6 ORtg in an era where the 3 wasn't really used much, the highest of all time for the next thirty years until it was finally matched by the... 2017 Warriors. Let me reiterate: it wasn't until Kevin Durant joined a 73 win team that was already arguably the GOAT shooting team that we saw a team that scored as well as the '87 Lakers. And we know at this point it was 100% Magic's team, so his impact really was massive.

3. 2017 Steph Curry (2015, 2016, 2021)

Very difficult choice here. But I went back and read what Doctor MJ said in 3rd place vote for Steph in the #1 thread: essentially, that Curry has shaped this new era of play in the NBA starting from 2015, and I realized he really did have a point. For someone to do that, they really do need to be having some crazy high impact. Wilt had the lane widened, NCAA Kareem had the dunk outlawed, Shaq had teams loading up on seven foot stiffs just for the 6 fouls they represented. These are all guys whose on court impact created seismic shifts in the way the game around them was played.

Curry in general is just a very difficult player to evaluate because he doesn't have a "perfect" season, and I still don't trust his impact as much as 2 way bigs like Hakeem/Duncan, but this is enough for me to have him here.

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