Comparing our future outlook to every team in the NBA

[nate33]

I forgot which podcast I was listening to, maybe it was Lowe's but basically Beal's catch and shoot 3s were money when he had Wall on the team. Pull up 3s are abysmal but that was probably a result of him being the guy and having to do everything with bad teammates around him. He's 29, historically, the length of his contract still covers his prime years. Will be he worth $60 mil? Probably not, neither would Devin Booker or any of these guys making that kind of money. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and think with better point guard play his 3 point shooting will be better.

That's just it. Beal's decline in 3-point shooting isn't just because he has to take more shots off the dribble. Even his open catch-and-shoots are much worse. Here is his progression in catch-and-shoot 3's over the past 7 seasons. The first number is # attempts, the second is percentage:

2021-22 - 2.7 - .296
2020-21 - 3.3 - .387
2019-20 - 4.4 - .382
2018-19 - 4.1 - .368
2017-18 - 3.9 - .430
2016-17 - 5.0 - .421
2015-16 - 3.3 - .387

This isn't overall 3-point percentage. This is only catch-and-shoots. It shouldn't matter all that much who is passing him the ball. Wall should theoretically get him more attempts, but Beal shouldn't shoot all that much better just because Wall is doing the passing. Either way, the drop off in 2021-22 is unrelated to Wall. Shooting 29% on catch-and-shoots is Westbrook-tier bad. Frankly, shooting in the high 30's like the last 4 seasons isn't really that great either. It's barely passable. KCP, for example, shot 42% each of the last two years. Terry Rozier shot 46%, 43% and 39% in his last 3 seasons. That's what normal shooting guards are supposed to do.

But back to the Cavs/Bulls, etc, at the end of the day none of them are a top 6 team in the East. We're just rearranging chairs on the titanic here, they're all in that play in conversation.

The Bulls might make Top 6. And Cleveland is at least in the 6-8 range while also being led by guys under age 25.

[payitforward]

It's great to see people being positive, predicting really good things.

I find it incomprehensible -- I mean really really strange -- but it's still great. & I'd be happy for it to turn out that I am all wrong.

There's no doubt that Morris & Wright are positive additions. &, rightly or wrongly, I just can't see Barton as significantly worse (or better) than KCP.

Otherwise, to predict any improvement at all, you have to assume that KP will be an altogether different factor than he has ever been in his career, & why would anyone think that will happen. & you have predict that Beal will return to mid-career form. Hope so, & anything's possible. But, is that what usually happens? No.

[barelyawake]

The sin of this franchise, and frankly the fans help in this nonsense, is management’s inability to recognize who is a star and who isn’t soon enough to get draft picks out of them. We hold on to everyone with an ounce of upside left with a hope, ney fervent and desperate prayer, that they will blossom and stay for cheap. How come fans can tell you who has the possibility to develop and who doesn’t long before management? There needs to be a formula that weighs work ethic, determination, speed, skills, mental acuity, handsize, dexterity, level-headedness, IQ, court vision, so one can explain that if Kwame can’t hold the ball, he isn’t going to be a star. The moment he says he doesn’t know how to make Mac and cheese (or whatever he said), you start making calls to trade him. Stop trying to develop role players before you’re done tanking. Highlight them and trade them for picks.

We all know this…

That said, I think we’ll be better than you think.

[payitforward]

No one can make Mac & Cheese better players.

[Kanyewest]

I forgot which podcast I was listening to, maybe it was Lowe's but basically Beal's catch and shoot 3s were money when he had Wall on the team. Pull up 3s are abysmal but that was probably a result of him being the guy and having to do everything with bad teammates around him. He's 29, historically, the length of his contract still covers his prime years. Will be he worth $60 mil? Probably not, neither would Devin Booker or any of these guys making that kind of money. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and think with better point guard play his 3 point shooting will be better.

That's just it. Beal's decline in 3-point shooting isn't just because he has to take more shots off the dribble. Even his open catch-and-shoots are much worse. Here is his progression in catch-and-shoot 3's over the past 7 seasons. The first number is # attempts, the second is percentage:

2021-22 - 2.7 - .296
2020-21 - 3.3 - .387
2019-20 - 4.4 - .382
2018-19 - 4.1 - .368
2017-18 - 3.9 - .430
2016-17 - 5.0 - .421
2015-16 - 3.3 - .387

This isn't overall 3-point percentage. This is only catch-and-shoots. It shouldn't matter all that much who is passing him the ball. Wall should theoretically get him more attempts, but Beal shouldn't shoot all that much better just because Wall is doing the passing. Either way, the drop off in 2021-22 is unrelated to Wall. Shooting 29% on catch-and-shoots is Westbrook-tier bad. Frankly, shooting in the high 30's like the last 4 seasons isn't really that great either. It's barely passable. KCP, for example, shot 42% each of the last two years. Terry Rozier shot 46%, 43% and 39% in his last 3 seasons. That's what normal shooting guards are supposed to do.

But back to the Cavs/Bulls, etc, at the end of the day none of them are a top 6 team in the East. We're just rearranging chairs on the titanic here, they're all in that play in conversation.

The Bulls might make Top 6. And Cleveland is at least in the 6-8 range while also being led by guys under age 25.

BTW, Lowe made the point of throwing last season out the window. In the broader context he was alluding to if Beal didn't have to generate most of the offense as a primary ball handler, then perhaps he would have more energy and be more effective on his shots if he was a 2nd or 3rd option on another team. With Westbrook, Beal was essentially a 39% 3 point shooter.

I agree though a point of emphasis this offseason for Beal should be his 3 point shooting where he was much better earlier in his career.

[barelyawake]

No one can make Mac & Cheese better players.

No idea what that means, but it simply takes common sense to know that a leader needs to be observant, street smart and wise beyond his years. The moment you know your “franchise savior” is the opposite, you trade him before anyone else finds out. It’s really that simple. We make excuses. Other franchises trade their top picks a year or two after they draft them, despite having great stats. That would be unthinkable to us. Because they don’t see it as a two for one. You get to tank for a higher pick, plus the picks you trade for.

We want the illusion of hope, so as to sell tickets. That’s it.

[J-Ves]

Obviously our long term outlook is abysmal but as long as we hold on to our draft picks there is always that faint glimmer of hope.

Looking at this season I doubt I go much above a 35 win prediction. KP is injury prone, Beal showed signs of regression, the lead guard position looks to be on the weak side again, and I’m not particularly bullish on any of our young’uns making the “leap”. We are last in the league in hope per 48 I fear.

[nate33]

BTW, Lowe made the point of throwing last season out the window. In the broader context he was alluding to if Beal didn't have to generate most of the offense as a primary ball handler, then perhaps he would have more energy and be more effective on his shots if he was a 2nd or 3rd option on another team. With Westbrook, Beal was essentially a 39% 3 point shooter.

I can understand this narrative, but I don't really believe it. Beal shot 37-38% on catch-and-shoot 3's in the two seasons before Westbrook, when Wall wasn't playing. And in the season he played alongside Westbrook, he shot 30.8% from 3-point range when alongside Westbrook, and 38.8% without him. (These numbers are for all 3-pointers. I don't know of a way to break down catch-and-shoot 3's with and without Westbrook.)

Basically, there is no explanation whatsoever for Beal's collapse in 3-point shooting last season. It's not teammates; it's not that he took more shots off the dribble. He just shot worse... a lot worse. Maybe it's just a fluke aberration that will spring back to normal this year. But as PIF said above, that's not what usually happens with players as they age past their prime. The prudent prediction is that this decline is real.

[doclinkin]

BTW, Lowe made the point of throwing last season out the window. In the broader context he was alluding to if Beal didn't have to generate most of the offense as a primary ball handler, then perhaps he would have more energy and be more effective on his shots if he was a 2nd or 3rd option on another team. With Westbrook, Beal was essentially a 39% 3 point shooter.

I can understand this narrative, but I don't really believe it. Beal shot 37-38% on catch-and-shoot 3's in the two seasons before Westbrook, when Wall wasn't playing. And in the season he played alongside Westbrook, he shot 30.8% from 3-point range when alongside Westbrook, and 38.8% without him. (These numbers are for all 3-pointers. I don't know of a way to break down catch-and-shoot 3's with and without Westbrook.)

Basically, there is no explanation whatsoever for Beal's collapse in 3-point shooting last season. It's not teammates; it's not that he took more shots off the dribble. He just shot worse... a lot worse. Maybe it's just a fluke aberration that will spring back to normal this year. But as PIF said above, that's not what usually happens with players as they age past their prime. The prudent prediction is that this decline is real.

I blame COVID. Beal got it what, 3 times? A jumpshooter who doesn't have his wind, does not have his legs, loses his shot. At the level of a top athlete a slight drop off in ability makes all the difference. COVID messes with recovery, weight room, cardio, stamina, etc.

That plus the rules changes that affected every combo guard and undersized PG in the league. Players who relied on the threat of a foul for the space to get their shot off all saw a drop in efficiency last year. Even Stef. Beal complained to the refs more than anybody last year, plays that normally would be called as a foul on the opponents were met with silence, a few were called as offensive fouls on the attacker. Defenders had a party all year, clutching and grabbing and hacking and swiping. Beal had no counter. Three point shooters were suddenly crowded off their spots with no fear of a leg kick that would convert a miss into a 3pt trip to the FT line.

[payitforward]

Beal's 3pt % has been dropping for a while, which renders the COVID explanation a bit suspect. That said, we'll see what happens this season.

[Kanyewest]

Beal's 3pt % has been dropping for a while, which renders the COVID explanation a bit suspect. That said, we'll see what happens this season.

The drop from open catch and shoot 3s is quite significant

2021-22 - 2.7 - .296
2020-21 - 3.3 - .387
2019-20 - 4.4 - .382
2018-19 - 4.1 - .368
2017-18 - 3.9 - .430
2016-17 - 5.0 - .421
2015-16 - 3.3 - .387

Even his 3 point percentage of 30% is lower than his previous worse by 5%.

Granted who knows the primary reason for his 3 point drop. Maybe he hasn't been working it on it enough and focusing enough. Conditioning could be an issue not only from Covid but exerting more energy on defense. Or perhaps the Dinwiddie pairing was terrible.

[payitforward]

So... last year we were 12th in the EC, with only Indiana, Detroit & Orlando behind us. Where will we wind up this coming season?

Well, the Knicks were #11 with only two more wins than the Wizards. I suppose that if they continue to be just as bad as last year (despite Brunson & whoever else they add) there is a slight chance we would pass them in the standings. It's worth noting, however, that on the season they were only down .1 of a point per game to the league. We were down 3.4 points.

Above them, in the 10th spot, was Charlotte. We were 8 games behind them. Plus, they are a team on the way up. We have zero chance of passing them in the standings. Not even if Miles Bridges is out of the picture altogether.

While it should be obvious that we are not getting past Cleveland, Chicago, Atlanta,Toronto, Milwaukee, Philly, Boston or Miami, it does seem possible that Brooklyn would fall through the floor. Thus, there is the slight chance that if both NY teams really crater we might manage to get all the way up to the dizzying height of the 10th spot in the conference.

OTOH, the two teams right behind us last year, Indiana & Detroit, are in rapid rebuild mode. I'd say it's close to even odds that one of the two passes us this season, & it's not out of the question altogether that both of them finish with better records than ours. Thus, we might wind up in the 14th spot, with only Orlando below us.

So, the possible range looks like 10th-14th. The likely range looks like 11th-13th. &, in the end, 12th seems the most probable spot for us to wind up.

The good news is that it's probably going to be a couple of years before Orlando passes us, & we take up residence at the absolute bottom of the East for a few seasons in a row. Or, hey, maybe they won't get better, & we actually never become the worst team in the league! Wouldn't that be great?