CBSSPORTS: NBA offseason winners and losers

[BNM]

NBA offseason winners and losers

Winner: Portland Trail Blazers
I'm not sure if I like Anfernee Simons more than Jalen Brunson. I think, at this moment, I would take Brunson because he's a playoff defender. But it's close. So why do I think the $100 million Portland gave Simons over four years is a win but consider the $104 million that the Knicks gave Brunson over the same amount of time to be a loss? Simple: Simons doesn't have to be the best player on the Blazers. He's got Damian Lillard for that.

Frankly, Simons doesn't have to be the Blazers' second-best player either. They just traded for Jerami Grant. Simons is a potential future star but he doesn't have to carry that burden right away.

Then late on Thursday night, or early Friday morning in the east, the Blazers stole Gary Payton II from the Warriors for $28 million over three years. Payton is awesome. Portland fans are going to fall in love with him. He's an elite defender and a special cutter and floor runner. He can hit corner 3s. Portland had to address its defense, and Grant and Payton are two huge additions in that regard.

The Blazers are still looking at small lineups and to say they're defensively deficient in the backcourt would be an understatement. They really need one more move, and it needs to be a good one, and I think Joe Cronin will get it done. I think it's clear this regime intends to keep the pedal down.

[Norm2953]

Remember CBS also had Holmgren going sixth when he went second

[DusterBuster]

I think all things considered, the Blazers have had a strong - if unspectacular- off-season. All the pieces the team has picked up seem to be good fits with what Billups wants to do. Whether that translates into a playoff team or more… unconvinced, but you never know. No one had the Warriors as title contenders again this year, let alone winning it. So small moves can make a big difference and the balance of the team seems to be a lot better (if you consider Grant to be a full time PF)

[BlazersBroncos]

I think all things considered, the Blazers have had a strong - if unspectacular- off-season. All the pieces the team has picked up seem to be good fits with what Billups wants to do. Whether that translates into a playoff team or more… unconvinced, but you never know. No one had the Warriors as title contenders again this year, let alone winning it. So small moves can make a big difference and the balance of the team seems to be a lot better (if you consider Grant to be a full time PF)

Yep. Given what we were working with I am happy with this off-season. At the very least this will be a team that doesn’t roll over, it’s meaningless if your a talented defender like RoCo when you don’t also play with fire.

Billups and CO have been prioritizing fire and effort.

[monopoman]

I think the Gary Payton II pickup was a huge deal, if he can develop to be even 75% or so of the defender his father was I could see that being a slam dunk contract. He likely won't ever be anywhere near the scorer his father was, but he definitely has been taught the value of defense from his father.

I also like who we grabbed with the 7th pick the Blazers have done well taking long shot picks that have higher upside. Simons for instance would have likely been a top 3 pick if he went to a major college instead of the IMG Academy. Little was also a bit of a high upside pick and that also has paid off well. Crap you can even roll the clock back to CJ and Lillard there was speculation that them coming from smaller schools would mean they wouldn't pan out in the NBA.

[BlazersBroncos]

I think the Gary Payton II pickup was a huge deal, if he can develop to be even 75% or so of the defender his father was I could see that being a slam dunk contract.

GP2 was by all advanced metrics a better defender last season than any season from his fathers career. I dont think many Blazers fans understand just how good he is on defense. But all that defensive talent hinges on finding ways to ensure he isnt a net negative on offense.

GSW did that by rotating him to corners for 3's, playing him in the dunkers spot, having him cut off screens and fill the wings on the break. We need to use him like that. He isnt a ballhandler, he isnt a passer, he isnt a traditional guard at all. He is closer to Derrick Jones JR as an offensive player than any guard in this league.

GSW unlocked him to a non-negative effect on offense and the payoff was huge on defense.

[monopoman]

I think the Gary Payton II pickup was a huge deal, if he can develop to be even 75% or so of the defender his father was I could see that being a slam dunk contract.

GP2 was by all advanced metrics a better defender last season than any season from his fathers career. I dont think many Blazers fans understand just how good he is on defense. But all that defensive talent hinges on finding ways to ensure he isnt a net negative on offense.

GSW did that by rotating him to corners for 3's, playing him in the dunkers spot, having him cut off screens and fill the wings on the break. We need to use him like that. He isnt a ballhandler, he isnt a passer, he isnt a traditional guard at all. He is closer to Derrick Jones JR as an offensive player than any guard in this league.

GSW unlocked him to a non-negative effect on offense and the payoff was huge on defense.

We do have two guards already taking a ton of shots so that will help, while he will need to hit some shots here he won't be asked to try to score 20 points a game or something.

[DusterBuster]

I think the Gary Payton II pickup was a huge deal, if he can develop to be even 75% or so of the defender his father was I could see that being a slam dunk contract.

GP2 was by all advanced metrics a better defender last season than any season from his fathers career. I dont think many Blazers fans understand just how good he is on defense. But all that defensive talent hinges on finding ways to ensure he isnt a net negative on offense.

GSW did that by rotating him to corners for 3's, playing him in the dunkers spot, having him cut off screens and fill the wings on the break. We need to use him like that. He isnt a ballhandler, he isnt a passer, he isnt a traditional guard at all. He is closer to Derrick Jones JR as an offensive player than any guard in this league.

GSW unlocked him to a non-negative effect on offense and the payoff was huge on defense.

I'm really interested to see what he brings. I think he has the opportunity to be a super underrated pickup. Probably mid-July talking here, but I do think the Blazers could be a Top 10.... defensive squad next season. I really think the team will be greatly improved defensively just with the current makeup of the squad and Billups' focus on that end of the ball.

[monopoman]

I think the Gary Payton II pickup was a huge deal, if he can develop to be even 75% or so of the defender his father was I could see that being a slam dunk contract.

GP2 was by all advanced metrics a better defender last season than any season from his fathers career. I dont think many Blazers fans understand just how good he is on defense. But all that defensive talent hinges on finding ways to ensure he isnt a net negative on offense.

GSW did that by rotating him to corners for 3's, playing him in the dunkers spot, having him cut off screens and fill the wings on the break. We need to use him like that. He isnt a ballhandler, he isnt a passer, he isnt a traditional guard at all. He is closer to Derrick Jones JR as an offensive player than any guard in this league.

GSW unlocked him to a non-negative effect on offense and the payoff was huge on defense.

I'm really interested to see what he brings. I think he has the opportunity to be a super underrated pickup. Probably mid-July talking here, but I do think the Blazers could be a Top 10.... defensive squad next season. I really think the team will be greatly improved defensively just with the current makeup of the squad and Billups' focus on that end of the ball.

Having a coach that is going to call that crap out will help, I think Stotts either let that **** go or the players just stopped listening as well. I saw CJ and Dame play better defense about 4 or so years ago, so even that "horrid pairing of defenders" were actually doing a better job then. Now Dame and Simons are not superb defenders but with a coach that is going to really make guys take responsibility I think they could be average or better on that end.

This is especially true in a prove it season that Dame is going to have here, even Simons has to prove a bit also since he got that big dump truck of money.

[BNM]

GP2 was by all advanced metrics a better defender last season than any season from his fathers career. I dont think many Blazers fans understand just how good he is on defense. But all that defensive talent hinges on finding ways to ensure he isnt a net negative on offense.

GSW did that by rotating him to corners for 3's, playing him in the dunkers spot, having him cut off screens and fill the wings on the break. We need to use him like that. He isnt a ballhandler, he isnt a passer, he isnt a traditional guard at all. He is closer to Derrick Jones JR as an offensive player than any guard in this league.

GSW unlocked him to a non-negative effect on offense and the payoff was huge on defense.

I'm really interested to see what he brings. I think he has the opportunity to be a super underrated pickup. Probably mid-July talking here, but I do think the Blazers could be a Top 10.... defensive squad next season. I really think the team will be greatly improved defensively just with the current makeup of the squad and Billups' focus on that end of the ball.

Having a coach that is going to call that crap out will help, I think Stotts either let that **** go or the players just stopped listening as well. I saw CJ and Dame play better defense about 4 or so years ago, so even that "horrid pairing of defenders" were actually doing a better job then. Now Dame and Simons are not superb defenders but with a coach that is going to really make guys take responsibility I think they could be average or better on that end.

This is especially true in a prove it season that Dame is going to have here, even Simons has to prove a bit also since he got that big dump truck of money.

POR's best defensive year under Stotts was 2017-2018 when they ranked 8th in Def Rtg. That was Nurk's first full season with the team. For most of the season, they hovered around 6th in Def Rtg, but slipped a bit over the last month when Moe Harkless and then Ed Davis missed some games due to injuries.

POR's top 10 in minutes that season were:

CJ
Dame
Nurk
Chief
ET
Napier
Connaughton
Ed Davis
Moe
Zach Collins

Those guys all played over 1000 minutes during the regular season and no one else played more than 500. So, those 10 were the ones responsible for a top 8 defense.

It's a little hard to project what our rotation will be, with so many new players and the possibility of injuries, but let's say it maps something like this, in terms of minutes:

CJ -> Ant
Dame -> Dame
Nurk -> Nurk
Chief -> Grant
ET -> Hart
Napier -> Payton
Connaughton -> Nas
Ed Davis -> Eubanks
Moe -> Winslow
Zach Collins -> Watford

And, of course:

Stotts -> Chauncey

At the guard, the top 3 look similar defensively, with Payton being >> defensively than Napier.

At forward, I think we will be better. Not that Chief, Moe, etc. were bad, but Grant, Nas and Winslow are very good defenders.

The problem I see, defensively, is replacing Ed Davis and Zach Collins with Drew Eubanks and Trendon Watford.

Overall, a slight edge the current squad. There has been a clear effort to target defensive players and we have a defensive minded coach. Guys like Payton, Winslow, Nas and Hart seem like Chauncey guys. We should be better on the perimeter, but I worry about rim protection and our bigs being targeted in the pick and roll.

[mighty_duck]

POR's best defensive year under Stotts was 2017-2018 when they ranked 8th in Def Rtg. That was Nurk's first full season with the team. For most of the season, they hovered around 6th in Def Rtg, but slipped a bit over the last month when Moe Harkless and then Ed Davis missed some games due to injuries.

I think the 2017-18 was an outlier. The following year we had almost the same main cast, and our defense didn't fair as well.

Advanced stats didn't like Nurk's defense last year either. It could be just a new coach's defensive schemes not meshing well. Or it could be the effects of injuries and years of ~300 pounds on those knees slowing him down. Probably a combination of both.

And with Dame and Simons sharing court time against the opposition's best guards, I see a lot of pain in our defensive future.

If we don't get a quality defensive backup big, we would be looking at bottom 10 defense.

[BNM]

POR's best defensive year under Stotts was 2017-2018 when they ranked 8th in Def Rtg. That was Nurk's first full season with the team. For most of the season, they hovered around 6th in Def Rtg, but slipped a bit over the last month when Moe Harkless and then Ed Davis missed some games due to injuries.

I think the 2017-18 was an outlier. The following year we had almost the same main cast, and our defense didn't fair as well.

Advanced stats didn't like Nurk's defense last year either. It could be just a new coach's defensive schemes not meshing well. Or it could be the effects of injuries and years of ~300 pounds on those knees slowing him down. Probably a combination of both.

And with Dame and Simons sharing court time against the opposition's best guards, I see a lot of pain in our defensive future.

If we don't get a quality defensive backup big, we would be looking at bottom 10 defense.

I think the biggest difference will come from having a lock down point of attack defender in Payton. Honestly, I think the last time we had someone comparable was Greg Anthony. Pre-injury Wes Matthews was good against larger guards, like Harden, but not quick enough to stay in front of smaller, quicker point guards.

Being able to stop opponents' offense at the point of attack was something sorely lacking during the Olshey/Stotts era (I blame Olshey more than Stotts due to poor roster construction).

It's also vitally important in the current NBA, with so many high scoring PGs. Payton gives us that, and it's why I'd like to see Dame's and Ant's minutes staggered as much as possible. With Dame and Ant both on the floor together, it will be the same old porous perimeter defense we had with Dame and CJ.

And if you can't stop the ball at the point of attack, it puts a lot of pressure on your bigs, more than we can endure, given our lack of mobile rim protectors.

Edit: I also think you are overlooking the loss of Ed Davis from 2017-18 to 2018-19. Ed's lost minutes were replaced by Meyers Leonard and eventually Enes Kanter - two very weak defending bigs who are pretty useless defending the pick and roll.

[Wizenheimer]

POR's best defensive year under Stotts was 2017-2018 when they ranked 8th in Def Rtg. That was Nurk's first full season with the team. For most of the season, they hovered around 6th in Def Rtg, but slipped a bit over the last month when Moe Harkless and then Ed Davis missed some games due to injuries.

I think the 2017-18 was an outlier. The following year we had almost the same main cast, and our defense didn't fair as well.

not an outlier as much as a significant roster difference. The "almost the same cast" reboot had a giant hole though and that was Ed Davis. He was a very underrated defender. In 17-18, Davis + Zach was the rotation tandem; they fit extremely well together defensively. The following season, Olshey tried to make the tandem Meyers + Zach; then Kanter + Zach. Both of those tandems were crap defensively. Harkless missing 22 games had an impact as well

And with Dame and Simons sharing court time against the opposition's best guards, I see a lot of pain in our defensive future.

it was Dame & CJ shariing court time when Portland had the 8th best defense. Dame + Simons isn't any significant departure defensively from Dame + CJ. What matters is the supporting cast

If we don't get a quality defensive backup big, we would be looking at bottom 10 defense.

I was not impressed, at all, with the defense Eubanks played. He might not be as bad as Kanter, but if he's better, it's not by much. So I'm not happy with him as the only backup big. I would have preferred somebody with more mobility who is capable of switching onto players on the perimeter. Of course, those kind of guys are more coveted than guys like Eubanks

on the other hand, it has become more and more a perimeter league. Few teams carry more than one traditional C like Nurk and teams go small more often than they go big. With Payton-Hart-Winslow the Blazers have the best trio of perimeter defenders they have had in the Dame era. And Grant is an underrated defender. And Billups is the coach, not Stotts. I think Portland can be better than average on defense. Maybe not top-10, but that's not out of reach either.