How should 2020 Anthony Davis be viewed?

[letskissbro]

Wanted to kind of use this thread as sort of a prelude to the peaks project before AD's name starts to come up.

By the eye test and the box score he looked to be around an MVP level player in the regular season but the impact stats didn't really bear that out at all. The Lakers were weirdly slightly better with him off the court that season (not that I would take that at face value at all). And although his defense seemed to be around DPOY level, LA's better defensive lineups seemed much more closely tied to LeBron's minutes than his.

Then the playoffs come around and that flips. He's a lot more spry with his movements and his shot creation is better, he goes from a fringe DPOY level defender by just the eye to an all time great one with the numbers to back it up, he shoots like Dirk from midrange and 3, and even his passing out of doubles vastly improves. He goes up a tier in pretty much all departments, which I think was largely facilitated by him playing more minutes at center. Even if the shot making was a fluke, everything else felt very real. AD has a history of upping his game in the playoffs so it's not like it was exactly out of character for him. My guess is that similar to Kawhi he avoids going pedal to the floor in the RS because he's so injury prone.

I was fully on board with AD being better than Giannis after the playoffs (even while making the mental note that his shot probably wasn't real) and while I've gone back on that since, every time I go back and re-watch his highlights from the bubble I can't help but feel like I'm watching one of the very best players ever. Those playoffs were the closest anyone has ever come to overshadowing playoff LeBron and if he would've proven it wasn't a one-off in the following seasons he'd pretty easily be in contention for like a top 5-10 peak ever.

So on the high end you take his postseason at face value, shot included, and have a case for a top 5-10 peak ever. Or you could use his following seasons to write that year off as a fluke, which I don't think is fair since he's been injured or out of shape since then. I land somewhere in the middle but it's definitely one of the hardest seasons for me to rate personally.

[sp6r=underrated]

I'm in the one year wonder camp were he played markedly above his normal level. Everyone's shooting in the bubble was markedly better and his abnormally so. There is no reason for me to think it was sustainable. And the abnormal shooting is really what upped him up so much. All of a sudden you made him a Dirk level shooter which of course warps everything

[No-more-rings]

I thought he had life easy with Lebron garnering more of the defensive attention. Not to discredit him, but it's nice to see people have a more realistic view of him 2 years later. At the time people we had a few people comparing his playoff run to guys like Tim Duncan and Hakeem.

[f4p]

I still think he benefits too much from being next to Lebron to call it an all-time peak. Yes, AD actually has very impressive playoff numbers so it can't solely be attributed to Lebron, but AD's game (at least at that point) seems tailor made to benefit from Lebron. He's almost certainly the most perfect fit for Lebron that he's ever had. Lebron runs the show and gets everyone where they need to be, AD did a superb job hitting his jumpers (unsustainably, but he did it) and finishing from Lebron's attention and still got some of his own shots. And obviously, the Lakers played amazing defense with him probably being the biggest reason. So certainly an amazing playoff run but too conveniently next to Lebron for me to call it an all-time peak.

AD has a good case to have had a better playoff run over Lebron but I think that's partially because Lebron quickly got the sense that the Lakers outclassed their opponents (once the Clippers and Bucks got upset) and he never shifted out of 2nd gear until Game 5 of the Finals. I think he was basically content to let AD go off and and use himself as a "break glass in case of emergency" guy. Finals MVP would have been interesting if the Lakers win in 5. I think Lebron was clearly the straw that stirred the drink and, even if Davis was slightly outplaying him, Lebron should have won it because he had an extra gear if needed. Is it fair to AD to give Lebron credit for the effort Lebron wasn't putting in? Maybe not, but by year 17 of Lebron's career, I'm not sure he needed to prove it and we all knew the reason no one was worried about the Lakers winning was because Lebron was there to make sure it didn't happen. Although I do think in either Game 3 or 4 Lebron seemed to start stat hunting in a way that made it seem like he definitely wasn't going to just concede Finals MVP (and for legacy reasons, he definitely should not have). And then Jimmy Butler made the Finals at least a tiny bit exciting and Lebron broke the glass case and sealed it for himself.

[Eagle4]

Aberration. That long break in between is what allowed AD to remain "spry" in the playoffs. His body just isn't built for the vigors of a long NBA season + deep post season run. Great player but tends to lack the assertive because he himself knows he's fragile and thus you constantly see him shy away from contact, much to the dismay of Lakers fans. That lack of aggressiveness and durability is what put the Giannis/AD debates to bed finally. If AD had even 75% of Giannis' motor then you're looking at a top 3-4 player but alas AD doesn't possess it.

[Statlanta]

I think he was the best player that year. I didn't have the leadership qualities of LeBron but he out performed everyone when it came to the playoffs. He was never an awful playoff performer so it's not inconcievable he could put up good numbers.

That said I wouldn't rank any of the last 3 seasons very high on the All-Time Peaks(Jokic, Antetokoumnpo, Curry, Davis) due to the pandemic and the extenuating circumstances that lead to the basketball played during this period.

[Jaivl]

A fluke. Not really influenced by LeBron IMO, just outlier shooting accuracy.

I still think he benefits too much from being next to Lebron to call it an all-time peak. Yes, AD actually has very impressive playoff numbers so it can't solely be attributed to Lebron, but AD's game (at least at that point) seems tailor made to benefit from Lebron. He's almost certainly the most perfect fit for Lebron that he's ever had. Lebron runs the show and gets everyone where they need to be, AD did a superb job hitting his jumpers (unsustainably, but he did it) and finishing from Lebron's attention and still got some of his own shots.

That's not really what happened.

Davis created most of his offense, he just happened to shoot 60% so people think LeBron must have created for him. Not the case.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Yeah AD Had series where he created his own offense and series where he was more off ball, he was great at both. The idea that Lebron is some sort of perfect partner for AD is overstated

I view it as I did before, an ATG playoff run in terms of level of play that was definately an outlier performance

There’s a weird idea that current players are all overrated, at the same time based on Giannis not getting any real traction yet on the peaks project despite having probably the best non lebron playoff run since 2011 there’s definately a pedestal we put older players on

Like since the three point era started we’ve had a few all time runs, that not a single one is probably gonna make top 15 except curry’s is kind of wild. The potential for two way impact runs is substantially lower today anyways so not crediting people for having those is odd to me

[homecourtloss]

I think he was the best player that year. I didn't have the leadership qualities of LeBron but he out performed everyone when it came to the playoffs. He was never an awful playoff performer so it's not inconcievable he could put up good numbers.

That said I wouldn't rank any of the last 3 seasons very high on the All-Time Peaks(Jokic, Antetokoumnpo, Curry, Davis) due to the pandemic and the extenuating circumstances that lead to the basketball played during this period.

He has an argument for the playoffs, but he doesn’t for the entire season as impact wise, LeBron was the driver of their regular season success and was their most impactful defensive player at the age of 35 while being the primary offense initiator which is pretty much unprecedented at that age.

2020 March 31st before the bubble:

LeBron On, AD off, 777 minutes: 113.5 ORtg, 103.0 DRtg, +10.3 [DRtg equivalent to 2nd best in the NBA], points differential equivalent to an all-time teams’.

AD ON, LeBron off, 572 minutes: 111.9 ORtg, 114.4 DRtg, -2.5 [DRtg equivalent to 28th in the NBA], points differential like that of a lottery team.

RPM:

James, +9.58 (6th on offense, 4th on defense; before the “formula change,” James had a historic RPM)
Davis, +2.53

RAPM:

James, +3.5 (5th overall, 32nd on offense, 4th on defense)
Davis, +.60 (130th overall, 240th on offense, 105 on defense)

Wanted to kind of use this thread as sort of a prelude to the peaks project before AD's name starts to come up.

By the eye test and the box score he looked to be around an MVP level player in the regular season but the impact stats didn't really bear that out at all. The Lakers were weirdly slightly better with him off the court that season (not that I would take that at face value at all). And although his defense seemed to be around DPOY level, LA's better defensive lineups seemed much more closely tied to LeBron's minutes than his.

What’s wild is that they were actually +6.1 per 100 possessions with AD off court. That’s…that’s crazy. Grizzlies were +6.4 per 100 with Morant off court this year. By and large, AD’s impact metrics for someone with his skillset and potential are incredibly underwhelming. You’re right about the defensive lineups being tied to LeBron:

2020 Lakers’ DRtg when player is on court:

THT: 111.2
Rondo: 107.3
KCP: 107.2
AD: 106.4
Howard: 106.4
Green: 106.0
McGee: 105.7
Kuzma: 105.2
Dion: 105.0
Bradley: 104.0
Morris: 103.4
Daniels: 102.7
Cook: 102.5
Caruso: 101.0
Dudley: 98.4

DRtgs for LeBron Pairs:

James + Cook: 90.8 (11.7 better with LeBron)
James + Rondo: 100.1 (7.2 better with LeBron)
James + Caruso: 95.1 (5.9 better with LeBron)
James + Kuzma: 99.8 (5.4 better with LeBron)
James + Davis: 103.2 (3.2 better with LeBron)
James + KCP: 104.2 (3.0 better with LeBron)
James + Howard: 104.5 (1.9 better with LeBron)
James + Green: 104.7 (1.3 better with LeBron)
James + Bradley: 103.1 (.9 better with LeBron)
James + Morris: 102.5 (.9 better with LeBron)
James + McGee: 105.2 (.7 better with LeBron)
James + Daniels: 102.6 (.1 better with LeBron)
James + Dudley: 102.1 (3.7 worse with LeBron)

Then the playoffs come around and that flips. He's a lot more spry with his movements and his shot creation is better, he goes from a fringe DPOY level defender by just the eye to an all time great one with the numbers to back it up, he shoots like Dirk from midrange and 3, and even his passing out of doubles vastly improves. He goes up a tier in pretty much all departments, which I think was largely facilitated by him playing more minutes at center. Even if the shot making was a fluke, everything else felt very real. AD has a history of upping his game in the playoffs so it's not like it was exactly out of character for him. My guess is that similar to Kawhi he avoids going pedal to the floor in the RS because he's so injury prone.

Pretty much most of this. Everything else other than midrange shooting on heavy contests did feel sustainable, i.e., the fluidity of movement, the fluidity of his jumper, his aggressiveness on putbacks. His individual defensive contest numbers actually decrease a bit in the playoffs, but his rotational and lineup value goes up.

Regular season: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203076/defense-dash?Season=2019-20
Post season: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203076/defense-dash?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Playoffs

Against ISO: .71 PPP (83rd percentile) in the regular season, 1.02 (31st percentile) in the playoffs.
Against spot ups: .95 (69th percentile) in the regular season, .87 (81st percentile) in the playoffs.
Against post ups: .67 (91st percentile) in the regular season, .92 (73rd percentile) in the playoffs

He paired really, really well offensively with Rondo on court (118 ORtg with LeBron off court) in offense creation, grabbed more offensive rebounds and was VERY aggressive in scoring off of ORebs, i.e., 1.20 points per possession off of putbacks in the regular season vs 1.40.

[Cavsfansince84]

I think he was the best player that year. I didn't have the leadership qualities of LeBron but he out performed everyone when it came to the playoffs. He was never an awful playoff performer so it's not inconcievable he could put up good numbers.

That said I wouldn't rank any of the last 3 seasons very high on the All-Time Peaks(Jokic, Antetokoumnpo, Curry, Davis) due to the pandemic and the extenuating circumstances that lead to the basketball played during this period.

I think overall LeBron was better. AD was slightly better up until he got that minor injury during the finals. LeBron is the one who finished off the Heat along with Rondo.

[RCM88x]

I think outside of his hot shooting streak he gets very overrated on both ends. Certainly a borderline top 5 player but to me his complete lack of playmaking or ball handling ability keeps him out of the best player conversation.

No idea what's happened to him after the bubble, hard to think of a similar situation where a player has dropped off this hard in recent history.

[sp6r=underrated]

I think outside of his hot shooting streak he gets very overrated on both ends. Certainly a borderline top 5 player but to me his complete lack of playmaking or ball handling ability keeps him out of the best player conversation.

No idea what's happened to him after the bubble, hard to think of a similar situation where a player has dropped off this hard in recent history.

A combination of things caused his breakdown:

1. He is highly susceptible to minor but chronic injuries. This has caused him to miss more and more time. The missed results an on-court rust and a reluctance to go all out.

2. He accomplished his career objectives. He was the #1 rated High School. He picked the most blue blood of programs to attend for one and dones, Kentucky. He was the #1 pick in the draft. He made All-NBA teams/Defensive teams with the small market team that drafted him. He signed max contracts and demanded a trade to the two glamour* cities. He got his way to the marquees franchise in the NBA. He won a title in his first year with a great playoffs.

It'd be normal to have a motivation dropoff at that point. Really the abnormal thing are the guys like Lebron who keep their motivation going long after they have no sensible reason to do so.

3. The 2021 and 2022 campaigns are not nearly the outliers we think they are. If you look at his resume you'll see quite a few seasons similar to 2021 and 2022. He was never as consistent year to year as the generational big that preceded him like Hakeem, Robinson, Duncan, KG and others. Heck even though he missed time due to injuries Shaq was still more on-court effective than Davis in the down seasons. Nor was he as consistently effective as the ones after him.

The decline we are seeing is smaller than we realized and then should be seen as more normal. In a lot of ways he's closer to a T-Mac than the guys we pegged him too.

* I know he put Milwaukee on the list too. But that was just to deflect criticism. He was LA/NYC or bust.

[SK21209]

I think we're seeing that his shooting in the bubble is the statistical outlier. I think he'll bounce back and shoot better next season than he has the last two, but its unrealistic to expect him to get back to the bubble shooting numbers.

That said, I reject the idea that AD's 2020 season in general was aberration or a "one-year-wonder" situation. His 2014-2015 season with the Pelicans might be his best overall season (30.8 PER, .274 WS/48, 8.9BPM). As a whole, 2020 is probably one of his three best seasons but its definitely not some peak that he's never approached otherwise. If not for the shortened offseason after the bubble, I'm pretty sure he follows up the bubble performance with a year about as strong as 2020.

The problem is he came into the 2021 season not physically prepared and has had horrible injury luck ever since. The injury stuff these last two seasons have been incredibly frustrating but there has been some revisionist history about him being extremely injury prone. In 2020 he played 62/71 regular season games and every playoff game. In 2019 he played 56 games in a season where he demanded a trade and was held out of games. He played 75 games in each of 2017 and 2018. His first 4 years he played 64, 67, 68 and 61 games, respectively, which isn't awesome by any means but not Zion or early-Embiid levels of never playing in games (which is how he's talked about a lot). It also isn't a Yao Ming situation where its obvious his body just can't hold up to the rigors of an NBA season, most of the injuries have just been unlucky. This past year he missed 17 games because LeBron fell into his leg, spraining his MCL, and another 18 when he landed on Gobert's foot. 90% of the players in the league would have gotten just as hurt had those things happened to them.

[Heej]

It's easier to shoot in a quiet empty gym. Also it was just a perfect storm type year for AD. Right now I kinda just have it as a fluke type year for him but it's well within his talent level to have another run close to that

[No-more-rings]

It's easier to shoot in a quiet empty gym.

There were cardboard cutout fans lol.

[Heej]

It's easier to shoot in a quiet empty gym.

There were cardboard cutout fans lol.

That's actually hilarious forgot about that

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think he was the best player that year. I didn't have the leadership qualities of LeBron but he out performed everyone when it came to the playoffs. He was never an awful playoff performer so it's not inconcievable he could put up good numbers.

That said I wouldn't rank any of the last 3 seasons very high on the All-Time Peaks(Jokic, Antetokoumnpo, Curry, Davis) due to the pandemic and the extenuating circumstances that lead to the basketball played during this period.

He has an argument for the playoffs, but he doesn’t for the entire season as impact wise, LeBron was the driver of their regular season success and was their most impactful defensive player at the age of 35 while being the primary offense initiator which is pretty much unprecedented at that age.

2020 March 31st before the bubble:

LeBron On, AD off, 777 minutes: 113.5 ORtg, 103.0 DRtg, +10.3 [DRtg equivalent to 2nd best in the NBA], points differential equivalent to an all-time teams’.

AD ON, LeBron off, 572 minutes: 111.9 ORtg, 114.4 DRtg, -2.5 [DRtg equivalent to 28th in the NBA], points differential like that of a lottery team.

RPM:

James, +9.58 (6th on offense, 4th on defense; before the “formula change,” James had a historic RPM)
Davis, +2.53

RAPM:

James, +3.5 (5th overall, 32nd on offense, 4th on defense)
Davis, +.60 (130th overall, 240th on offense, 105 on defense)

Wanted to kind of use this thread as sort of a prelude to the peaks project before AD's name starts to come up.

By the eye test and the box score he looked to be around an MVP level player in the regular season but the impact stats didn't really bear that out at all. The Lakers were weirdly slightly better with him off the court that season (not that I would take that at face value at all). And although his defense seemed to be around DPOY level, LA's better defensive lineups seemed much more closely tied to LeBron's minutes than his.

What’s wild is that they were actually +6.1 per 100 possessions with AD off court. That’s…that’s crazy. Grizzlies were +6.4 per 100 with Morant off court this year. By and large, AD’s impact metrics for someone with his skillset and potential are incredibly underwhelming. You’re right about the defensive lineups being tied to LeBron:

2020 Lakers’ DRtg when player is on court:

THT: 111.2
Rondo: 107.3
KCP: 107.2
AD: 106.4
Howard: 106.4
Green: 106.0
McGee: 105.7
Kuzma: 105.2
Dion: 105.0
Bradley: 104.0
Morris: 103.4
Daniels: 102.7
Cook: 102.5
Caruso: 101.0
Dudley: 98.4

DRtgs for LeBron Pairs:

James + Cook: 90.8 (11.7 better with LeBron)
James + Rondo: 100.1 (7.2 better with LeBron)
James + Caruso: 95.1 (5.9 better with LeBron)
James + Kuzma: 99.8 (5.4 better with LeBron)
James + Davis: 103.2 (3.2 better with LeBron)
James + KCP: 104.2 (3.0 better with LeBron)
James + Howard: 104.5 (1.9 better with LeBron)
James + Green: 104.7 (1.3 better with LeBron)
James + Bradley: 103.1 (.9 better with LeBron)
James + Morris: 102.5 (.9 better with LeBron)
James + McGee: 105.2 (.7 better with LeBron)
James + Daniels: 102.6 (.1 better with LeBron)
James + Dudley: 102.1 (3.7 worse with LeBron)

Then the playoffs come around and that flips. He's a lot more spry with his movements and his shot creation is better, he goes from a fringe DPOY level defender by just the eye to an all time great one with the numbers to back it up, he shoots like Dirk from midrange and 3, and even his passing out of doubles vastly improves. He goes up a tier in pretty much all departments, which I think was largely facilitated by him playing more minutes at center. Even if the shot making was a fluke, everything else felt very real. AD has a history of upping his game in the playoffs so it's not like it was exactly out of character for him. My guess is that similar to Kawhi he avoids going pedal to the floor in the RS because he's so injury prone.

Pretty much most of this. Everything else other than midrange shooting on heavy contests did feel sustainable, i.e., the fluidity of movement, the fluidity of his jumper, his aggressiveness on putbacks. His individual defensive contest numbers actually decrease a bit in the playoffs, but his rotational and lineup value goes up.

Regular season: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203076/defense-dash?Season=2019-20
Post season: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203076/defense-dash?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Playoffs

Against ISO: .71 PPP (83rd percentile) in the regular season, 1.02 (31st percentile) in the playoffs.
Against spot ups: .95 (69th percentile) in the regular season, .87 (81st percentile) in the playoffs.
Against post ups: .67 (91st percentile) in the regular season, .92 (73rd percentile) in the playoffs

He paired really, really well offensively with Rondo on court (118 ORtg with LeBron off court) in offense creation, grabbed more offensive rebounds and was VERY aggressive in scoring off of ORebs, i.e., 1.20 points per possession off of putbacks in the regular season vs 1.40.

Looking at their 2020 PS play

2020 Lebron

Inflation Adjusted 28 pts per 75, rTS% of 9.2%
AuPM/G-6
Backpicks BPM-9.37
RAPTOR-10.3
PIPM-6.5
BPM-10.6
S0ciety's metric (user on this board)-8.1


2020 AD

Inflation Adjusted 27.8 pts per 75, rTS% of 10.1%
AuPM/G-4.5
PIPM-5.9
Backpicks BPM-7.09
RAPTOR-12.5
BPM-8.7
S0ciety's metric-6.8

I think it is fair to say AD scored a little better than Lebron, but I think it is close. Lebron ran their offense and was arguably the best overall playmaker in the PS, along with being among the best scorers.

The gap between Lebron and AD in playmaking and overall creation for teammates is likely larger than the gap AD has over Lebron as a defender. Not only did Lebron lead the league in assists per game, but he was #1 in PlayVal (estimate of playmaking value) and had Ball Index‘s highest grade in playmaking for 2020. It was possibly an all-time playmaking season. Davis' offensive value largely came from 1 on 1 isolation which is insanely valuable for bailing out a stagnated offense so I think it depends how you weight certain variables.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think outside of his hot shooting streak he gets very overrated on both ends. Certainly a borderline top 5 player but to me his complete lack of playmaking or ball handling ability keeps him out of the best player conversation.

No idea what's happened to him after the bubble, hard to think of a similar situation where a player has dropped off this hard in recent history.

A combination of things caused his breakdown:

1. He is highly susceptible to minor but chronic injuries. This has caused him to miss more and more time. The missed results an on-court rust and a reluctance to go all out.

2. He accomplished his career objectives. He was the #1 rated High School. He picked the most blue blood of programs to attend for one and dones, Kentucky. He was the #1 pick in the draft. He made All-NBA teams/Defensive teams with the small market team that drafted him. He signed max contracts and demanded a trade to the two glamour* cities. He got his way to the marquees franchise in the NBA. He won a title in his first year with a great playoffs.

It'd be normal to have a motivation dropoff at that point. Really the abnormal thing are the guys like Lebron who keep their motivation going long after they have no sensible reason to do so.

3. The 2021 and 2022 campaigns are not nearly the outliers we think they are. If you look at his resume you'll see quite a few seasons similar to 2021 and 2022. He was never as consistent year to year as the generational big that preceded him like Hakeem, Robinson, Duncan, KG and others. Heck even though he missed time due to injuries Shaq was still more on-court effective than Davis in the down seasons. Nor was he as consistently effective as the ones after him.

The decline we are seeing is smaller than we realized and then should be seen as more normal. In a lot of ways he's closer to a T-Mac than the guys we pegged him too.

* I know he put Milwaukee on the list too. But that was just to deflect criticism. He was LA/NYC or bust.

T-Mac delt with several injuries that possible aged him quickly.

Nonetheless,

AD from 15-22 averaged per 75 possessions an Inflation Adjusted (rTS%)

15: 27.6 pts (5.7%)
16: 26.3 pts (1.8%)
17: 28.9 pts (2.7%)
18: 28.1 pts (5.6%)
19: 27.4 pts (4%)
20: 26.7 pts (4.1%)

Then in 21 and 22

21: 24.3 pts (-2.0%)
22: 23.7 pts (0.9%)

This is just his scoring decline, not even taking into account he looks much sprier and lighter on his feet. The drop in his movement is startling for someone his age. He isn't nearly the same athlete. This decline isn't normal whatsoever. The only star who maybe never suffered a major injury to decline by so much, so quickly is maybe Moses Malone.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I think outside of his hot shooting streak he gets very overrated on both ends. Certainly a borderline top 5 player but to me his complete lack of playmaking or ball handling ability keeps him out of the best player conversation.

No idea what's happened to him after the bubble, hard to think of a similar situation where a player has dropped off this hard in recent history.

A combination of things caused his breakdown:

1. He is highly susceptible to minor but chronic injuries. This has caused him to miss more and more time. The missed results an on-court rust and a reluctance to go all out.

2. He accomplished his career objectives. He was the #1 rated High School. He picked the most blue blood of programs to attend for one and dones, Kentucky. He was the #1 pick in the draft. He made All-NBA teams/Defensive teams with the small market team that drafted him. He signed max contracts and demanded a trade to the two glamour* cities. He got his way to the marquees franchise in the NBA. He won a title in his first year with a great playoffs.

It'd be normal to have a motivation dropoff at that point. Really the abnormal thing are the guys like Lebron who keep their motivation going long after they have no sensible reason to do so.

3. The 2021 and 2022 campaigns are not nearly the outliers we think they are. If you look at his resume you'll see quite a few seasons similar to 2021 and 2022. He was never as consistent year to year as the generational big that preceded him like Hakeem, Robinson, Duncan, KG and others. Heck even though he missed time due to injuries Shaq was still more on-court effective than Davis in the down seasons. Nor was he as consistently effective as the ones after him.

The decline we are seeing is smaller than we realized and then should be seen as more normal. In a lot of ways he's closer to a T-Mac than the guys we pegged him too.

* I know he put Milwaukee on the list too. But that was just to deflect criticism. He was LA/NYC or bust.

T-Mac delt with several injuries that possible aged him quickly.

Nonetheless,

AD from 15-22 averaged per 75 possessions an Inflation Adjusted (rTS%)

15: 27.6 pts (5.7%)
16: 26.3 pts (1.8%)
17: 28.9 pts (2.7%)
18: 28.1 pts (5.6%)
19: 27.4 pts (4%)
20: 26.7 pts (4.1%)

Then in 21 and 22

21: 24.3 pts (-2.0%)
22: 23.7 pts (0.9%)

This is just his scoring decline, not even taking into account he looks much sprier and lighter on his feet. The drop in his movement is startling for someone his age. He isn't nearly the same athlete. This decline isn't normal whatsoever. The only star who maybe never suffered a major injury to decline by so much, so quickly is maybe Moses Malone.

He just tried to build muscle and it didn’t work out lol, he’ll be fine next year if we get Kyrie especially

[sp6r=underrated]

I think outside of his hot shooting streak he gets very overrated on both ends. Certainly a borderline top 5 player but to me his complete lack of playmaking or ball handling ability keeps him out of the best player conversation.

No idea what's happened to him after the bubble, hard to think of a similar situation where a player has dropped off this hard in recent history.

A combination of things caused his breakdown:

1. He is highly susceptible to minor but chronic injuries. This has caused him to miss more and more time. The missed results an on-court rust and a reluctance to go all out.

2. He accomplished his career objectives. He was the #1 rated High School. He picked the most blue blood of programs to attend for one and dones, Kentucky. He was the #1 pick in the draft. He made All-NBA teams/Defensive teams with the small market team that drafted him. He signed max contracts and demanded a trade to the two glamour* cities. He got his way to the marquees franchise in the NBA. He won a title in his first year with a great playoffs.

It'd be normal to have a motivation dropoff at that point. Really the abnormal thing are the guys like Lebron who keep their motivation going long after they have no sensible reason to do so.

3. The 2021 and 2022 campaigns are not nearly the outliers we think they are. If you look at his resume you'll see quite a few seasons similar to 2021 and 2022. He was never as consistent year to year as the generational big that preceded him like Hakeem, Robinson, Duncan, KG and others. Heck even though he missed time due to injuries Shaq was still more on-court effective than Davis in the down seasons. Nor was he as consistently effective as the ones after him.

The decline we are seeing is smaller than we realized and then should be seen as more normal. In a lot of ways he's closer to a T-Mac than the guys we pegged him too.

* I know he put Milwaukee on the list too. But that was just to deflect criticism. He was LA/NYC or bust.

T-Mac delt with several injuries that possible aged him quickly.

Nonetheless,

AD from 15-22 averaged per 75 possessions an Inflation Adjusted (rTS%)

15: 27.6 pts (5.7%)
16: 26.3 pts (1.8%)
17: 28.9 pts (2.7%)
18: 28.1 pts (5.6%)
19: 27.4 pts (4%)
20: 26.7 pts (4.1%)

Then in 21 and 22

21: 24.3 pts (-2.0%)
22: 23.7 pts (0.9%)

This is just his scoring decline, not even taking into account he looks much sprier and lighter on his feet. The drop in his movement is startling for someone his age. He isn't nearly the same athlete. This decline isn't normal whatsoever. The only star who maybe never suffered a major injury to decline by so much, so quickly is maybe Moses Malone.

Look at the fluctations in his BPM for the box score and RAPM (admittedly +/- is more noisy year to year) and compare it to bigs primes. You see much larger fluctuations as I stated. Focusing on ppg when NBA scoring is exploding is misleading. His passing numbers go way up in 21/22.