Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals

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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#101 » by ShootersShoot » Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:05 am

QingJames wrote:
Roger Murdock wrote:
QingJames wrote:
Siakam missed 14 games.
Anunoby missed 34 games.
Vanvleet missed 17 games.
Trent missed 12 games.

Tell me more about this injury luck and lack of missed games? As you say, they had no depth, and their best three players missed a combined 65/246 possible games. That's more than a quarter of the season. Yet they managed to eke out almost 50 wins with lots of missed time and no depth. They're a lock to beat that 44.5 line, which assumes that they are a worse team than last year even though their youth has a year to improve and they have more depth.


Did you follow last season? Thats barely anything. Most starters missed 15 games last year. The only rotation player who missed an unusual amount of time last year for the Raptors was Anunoby and hes the 4th best guy on the team.

Heat: Butler missed 25. Adebayo 26. Lowry 19. Herro 16.
Bulls: LaVine missed 15. Ball missed 47. Caruso missed 41. PWill missed 60.
Cavs: Garland missed 14. Allen missed 26. Mobley missed 13. Lauri missed 21. Sexton missed 71.
76ers: Missed 61 games out of Harden/Simmons, Embiid missed 14, Green missed 21
Bucks: Giannis missed 15 games, Jrue missed 15, Middleton 16, Portis 10, Allen 16, Pat 17, Lopez 69

You get it. A starter missing 10-15 games last year was par for the course. Raptors had it easy, sans a bit longer hold out from OG.


Seems like it was all pretty comparable among teams' top players to me, with the exception of Miami who seems to have suffered a longer duration of missed top among their top 4 than other teams.

Don't really rate guys like Sexton, who Cleveland was almost certainly better without, or roleplayers like Connaughton and Green. I didn't include guys like Birch who missed 27 games or Dragic, who made it clear he wasn't interested in playing for the team, or Precious who missed 10. Also, you admit that the Raps had **** depth so not really sure how you can say a team like Chicago had worse luck with injuries to their roleplayers when the Raptors went without quality bench players the entire season.

Those guys missing time is obviously less important than a team's top 3-4 players, and it seems like the Raptors top 3 guys missed as much or more combined time than all those other teams you listed except for Miami.

Chicago: LaVine + DeRozan + Vucevic = 30 missed games.
Miami: Butler + Adebayo + Lowry = 70 missed games.
Cleveland: Garland + Allen + Mobley = 53 missed games.
Philly: Embiid + Maxey + Simmons/Harden (weird to equivocate this with injury luck when Simmons' missed time had nothing to do with injuries or luck but w/e) = 82 missed games.
Milwaukee: Giannis + Jrue + Middleton = 46
Toronto: Siakam + Anunoby + Vanvleet = 65 Missed games.

So seems to me that the Raptors were right in line with 'bad injury luck' that other teams had last year to their top players. Again, if you want to quibble about roleplayers I'll just say that not having roleplayers is worse than losing roleplayers for 15-40 games.


Raps have more well rounded 4th/5th starters..injuries to other teams' 4th-6th guys would dramatically lower their depth, making it worse than the raps situation. Most teams 4th/5th guys are not nearly as good as trent/barnes. Any argument over the rap's lack of depth is nullified a bit when we consider that their 4th/5th guys were relatively healthy.

Trent/Barnes missed 20 games total
Lonzo/caruso missed 88 games total. Thats not even counting patrick williams who missed 65 games.
Brook lopez alone missed 69 games
Rubio alone missed 47 games. You may not rate sexton, but losing both him and rubio decimated their back court rotation. Losing a 20ppg scorer for 70 games is not a loss?
Herro/Strus missed 30 games on top of their big three missing more games than the raps big three you highlighted.
Hawks had a good amount of injuries as well. Their 2nd-4th best players (collins,bogs,hunter) missed 76 games total.
Sixers had a lot of turnover and they were without BS until the harden trade. They also lost danny green for the season to ACL. Ben missed 50ish games and green missed 20 plus playoffs.

So essentially the raps top 5 missed 85 games. All of the other teams highlighted definitely missed more than that from their top 5. Now, with that said, were the raps luckier than other eastern teams? Maybe just against the bulls, cavs, and possibly the bucks.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#102 » by SpreeS » Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:08 am

pj0tr wrote:I don't think the Suns win 64 games again, but if their O/U is at 52.5...

53-29 certainly seems doable for them.

I do not think that the Suns will be the top seed in the west next year, but I certainly think they'll be good enough for a top 4 seed.


One of these team won’t be TOP4

GSW/PHO/MEM/DEN/LAC
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#103 » by AussieCeltic » Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:41 am

SpreeS wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
Roger Murdock wrote:
Appreciate the vote of confidence in my postings, but its objectively true most teams, especially competing for playoffs in the East, had considerably worse injury luck than the Raps last season.


Here is a good graph.


Read on Twitter


This is very bad graph and confusing everyone

8 man rotation

PHO (Paul, Booker, Bridges, Crowder, Ayton, Payne, Shamet, Cam) missed 125 games

GSW (Curry, Klay, Wiggs, Green, Looney, Poole, Payton, Porter) missed 149 games

DEN (Murray, Barton, Porter, Gordon, Jokic, Green, Rivers, Morris) missed 210 games

TOP3 man rotation

PHO (Paul, Booker, Ayton) missed 55 games

GSW (Curry, Klay, Green) missed 104 games

DEN (Jokic, Porter, Murray) missed 163 games


No it isn’t. Pretty basic… the size of the circle represents the total games lost based on win shares. So if star/impact players missed more games, the circle that represents them will be larger eg Clippers and Suns having largest circles. The X and Y graphs represent wins and total games lost.

These are real numbers. Just because you don’t agree where your team is, doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#104 » by SpreeS » Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:26 am

AussieCeltic wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
Here is a good graph.


Read on Twitter


This is very bad graph and confusing everyone

8 man rotation

PHO (Paul, Booker, Bridges, Crowder, Ayton, Payne, Shamet, Cam) missed 125 games

GSW (Curry, Klay, Wiggs, Green, Looney, Poole, Payton, Porter) missed 149 games

DEN (Murray, Barton, Porter, Gordon, Jokic, Green, Rivers, Morris) missed 210 games

TOP3 man rotation

PHO (Paul, Booker, Ayton) missed 55 games

GSW (Curry, Klay, Green) missed 104 games

DEN (Jokic, Porter, Murray) missed 163 games


No it isn’t. Pretty basic… the size of the circle represents the total games lost based on win shares. So if star/impact players missed more games, the circle that represents them will be larger eg Clippers and Suns having largest circles. The X and Y graphs represent wins and total games lost.

These are real numbers. Just because you don’t agree where your team is, doesn’t mean it’s wrong.


This is wrong chart. Did they use Klay's WS stat after missed 2.5y? Really? How they count PHO bigs (Ayton, Saric, Kamisky, McGee, Biyombo, Smith) missed total WS? If they are all healthy only Ayton + one big would see playing time. Also bigs WS >>> guards WS, this adv stats doesnt show real impact for smaller players. WS/48 shows you how bigs are protected by this stats.

Kaminsky .228
Ayton .203
McGee .201
Biyombo .170
Cam .156
Smith .137

Curry .173
Green .131
Poole .126
Wiggs .105
Klay .091

Look at Curry and Paul WS and WS/48

Curry 63g 8.0ws .173ws/48
Paul 65g 9.4ws .210ws/48

These players are in different stratospheres
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#105 » by AussieCeltic » Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:33 am

SpreeS wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
This is very bad graph and confusing everyone

8 man rotation

PHO (Paul, Booker, Bridges, Crowder, Ayton, Payne, Shamet, Cam) missed 125 games

GSW (Curry, Klay, Wiggs, Green, Looney, Poole, Payton, Porter) missed 149 games

DEN (Murray, Barton, Porter, Gordon, Jokic, Green, Rivers, Morris) missed 210 games

TOP3 man rotation

PHO (Paul, Booker, Ayton) missed 55 games

GSW (Curry, Klay, Green) missed 104 games

DEN (Jokic, Porter, Murray) missed 163 games


No it isn’t. Pretty basic… the size of the circle represents the total games lost based on win shares. So if star/impact players missed more games, the circle that represents them will be larger eg Clippers and Suns having largest circles. The X and Y graphs represent wins and total games lost.

These are real numbers. Just because you don’t agree where your team is, doesn’t mean it’s wrong.


This is wrong chart. Did they use Klay's WS stat after missed 2.5y? Really? How they count PHO bigs (Ayton, Saric, Kamisky, McGee, Biyombo, Smith) missed total WS? If they are all healthy only Ayton + one big would see playing time. Also bigs WS >>> guards WS, this adv stats doesnt show real impact for smaller players. WS/48 shows you how bigs are protected by this stats.

Kaminsky .228
Ayton .203
McGee .201
Biyombo .170
Cam .156
Smith .137

Curry .173
Green .131
Poole .126
Wiggs .105
Klay .091

Look at Curry and Paul WS and WS/48

Curry 63g 8.0ws .173ws/48
Paul 65g 9.4ws .210ws/48

These players are in different stratospheres


Sorry not WS but VORP.

No stat is perfect but I believe it’s a pretty fair representation.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#106 » by nomansland » Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:15 am

AussieCeltic wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
No it isn’t. Pretty basic… the size of the circle represents the total games lost based on win shares. So if star/impact players missed more games, the circle that represents them will be larger eg Clippers and Suns having largest circles. The X and Y graphs represent wins and total games lost.

These are real numbers. Just because you don’t agree where your team is, doesn’t mean it’s wrong.


This is wrong chart. Did they use Klay's WS stat after missed 2.5y? Really? How they count PHO bigs (Ayton, Saric, Kamisky, McGee, Biyombo, Smith) missed total WS? If they are all healthy only Ayton + one big would see playing time. Also bigs WS >>> guards WS, this adv stats doesnt show real impact for smaller players. WS/48 shows you how bigs are protected by this stats.

Kaminsky .228
Ayton .203
McGee .201
Biyombo .170
Cam .156
Smith .137

Curry .173
Green .131
Poole .126
Wiggs .105
Klay .091

Look at Curry and Paul WS and WS/48

Curry 63g 8.0ws .173ws/48
Paul 65g 9.4ws .210ws/48

These players are in different stratospheres


Sorry not WS but VORP.

No stat is perfect but I believe it’s a pretty fair representation.


Yeah I think it's pretty reasonable as well. If you're missing rotation players and also missing their subs it means you're playing guys like Campazzo and Bryn Forbes. You have to take that into account. It's not all about the starters or top 8.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#107 » by SpreeS » Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:30 am

AussieCeltic wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
No it isn’t. Pretty basic… the size of the circle represents the total games lost based on win shares. So if star/impact players missed more games, the circle that represents them will be larger eg Clippers and Suns having largest circles. The X and Y graphs represent wins and total games lost.

These are real numbers. Just because you don’t agree where your team is, doesn’t mean it’s wrong.


This is wrong chart. Did they use Klay's WS stat after missed 2.5y? Really? How they count PHO bigs (Ayton, Saric, Kamisky, McGee, Biyombo, Smith) missed total WS? If they are all healthy only Ayton + one big would see playing time. Also bigs WS >>> guards WS, this adv stats doesnt show real impact for smaller players. WS/48 shows you how bigs are protected by this stats.

Kaminsky .228
Ayton .203
McGee .201
Biyombo .170
Cam .156
Smith .137

Curry .173
Green .131
Poole .126
Wiggs .105
Klay .091

Look at Curry and Paul WS and WS/48

Curry 63g 8.0ws .173ws/48
Paul 65g 9.4ws .210ws/48

These players are in different stratospheres


Sorry not WS but VORP.

No stat is perfect but I believe it’s a pretty fair representation.


What can I say...VORP is derivative stat from BPM, which doesn't correspond to today's reality. How did they count Kaminsky 4.9bpm 0.3vorp, who played 9 games? This is almost Curry impact from the last season or Green/Klay total missed VORP :D :D :D
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#108 » by Blacksheep25 » Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:35 pm

Roger Murdock wrote:I’m unsure how to quantify it exactly but some teams got railroaded all at once.

Cavs had a lot of injuries the first half of the season but they were mostly when other teams weren’t healthy and they were a bit spaced out.

Then end of year we were basically down Sexton + 2 of Allen / Mobley / Garland at all times and when 3/4 of your best players are out every game winning is impossible.


For some reason no one is mentioning Rubio when his injury was the most devastating. The Cavs had the best point differential in the league and highest odds to be the one seed because they had already played the toughest part of their schedule. Ricky went down, and every game was a dogfight against even bad teams.

He was a legitimate perfect fit and force multiplier to guys like Love and Osman actually being useful. His absence is why Garland had to play so many minutes. We were blowing teams out with Ricky, and then everyone had to play major minutes for eek out 2 point wins. We had one guy in the team who could dribble after his injury.

The minute he went down, I started cheering for a lottery pick because he was that important to them. Thrilled they resigned him and hope he is healthy after all star break. He finally found his perfect fit with the Cavs.

Anyone who watched the Cavs every game like I did hated to see Sexton go down, and hope he has a great year, but him going down is what allowed Ricky to get more minutes and it was straight uphill. Now you could argue those extra minutes were why he got hurt. Iirc, he was playing like 38 minutes that night he tore his ACL because Garland was out and if Sexton was there, it wouldn’t have been necessary. But Rubio was a far bigger loss. Crippling.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#109 » by Kampuchea » Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:01 pm

Toronto - under, I think they take a big step back this year
Mil - Over
Sac - Over
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#110 » by NYPiston » Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:04 pm

The over on 31.5 for Sacramento is easy money. It's the Kings so you never know but I can't see any way that roster is less than a 35 win team if mostly healthy.

Maybe a homer pick but I think the Pistons are a 30+ win team. Cade is THAT good, the league will recognize that fact this season.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#111 » by Appostis » Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:30 pm

I gotta put money on Toronto.

Safe bet as a over. Same thing every year
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#112 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:06 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:Sports leagues promoting gambling is so gross.


Why? It's literally what drives american sports. Half the country either gambles through fantasy leagues and/or NCAA brackets and there's a reason it's so popular.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#113 » by sp6r=underrated » Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:16 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:Sports leagues promoting gambling is so gross.


Why? It's literally what drives american sports. Half the country either gambles through fantasy leagues and/or NCAA brackets and there's a reason it's so popular.


Because industrialized gambling is (i) bad for the economy, article below describes impact of casinos on local economies;

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

(ii) an addictive product
(iii) extremely harmful (financial ruin, divorce, suicide, etc) for a subset of users.

There is a reason these sited gives you upto hundred of dollars in free money to sign up. They know how addictive their product is for a subset of users. And the advertisements are all designed to get as many into the sportsbooks, so the books can identify the addicts and bleed them dry. An industry that runs on identifying and creating addicts and then taking every last dollar is gross.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#114 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:19 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:Sports leagues promoting gambling is so gross.


Why? It's literally what drives american sports. Half the country either gambles through fantasy leagues and/or NCAA brackets and there's a reason it's so popular.


Because industrialized gambling is (i) bad for the economy, article below describes impact of casinos on local economies;

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

(ii) an addictive product
(iii) extremely harmful (financial ruin, divorce, suicide, etc) for a subset of users.

There is a reason these sited gives you upto hundred of dollars in free money to sign up. They know how addictive their product is for a subset of users. And the advertisements are all designed to get as many into the sportsbooks, so the books can identify the addicts and bleed them dry. An industry that runs on identifying and creating addicts and then taking every last dollar is gross.


Most things that are fun have negative side effects. Be it cake, alcohol, smoking anything, auto racing (legal or street)....or gambling. That's just part of the human condition. Sports drive a HUGE amount of their popularity off of gambling. It makes no sense to not get a piece of the pie when people will profit off it with or without you.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#115 » by sp6r=underrated » Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:22 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Why? It's literally what drives american sports. Half the country either gambles through fantasy leagues and/or NCAA brackets and there's a reason it's so popular.


Because industrialized gambling is (i) bad for the economy, article below describes impact of casinos on local economies;

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

(ii) an addictive product
(iii) extremely harmful (financial ruin, divorce, suicide, etc) for a subset of users.

There is a reason these sited gives you upto hundred of dollars in free money to sign up. They know how addictive their product is for a subset of users. And the advertisements are all designed to get as many into the sportsbooks, so the books can identify the addicts and bleed them dry. An industry that runs on identifying and creating addicts and then taking every last dollar is gross.


Most things that are fun have negative side effects. Be it cake, alcohol, smoking anything, auto racing (legal or street)....or gambling. That's just part of the human condition. Sports drive a HUGE amount of their popularity off of gambling. It makes no sense to not get a piece of the pie when people will profit off it with or without you.


Since this is a non-political board I'll end the discussion with agree to disagree.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#116 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:23 pm

AussieCeltic wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
AussieCeltic wrote:
No it isn’t. Pretty basic… the size of the circle represents the total games lost based on win shares. So if star/impact players missed more games, the circle that represents them will be larger eg Clippers and Suns having largest circles. The X and Y graphs represent wins and total games lost.

These are real numbers. Just because you don’t agree where your team is, doesn’t mean it’s wrong.


This is wrong chart. Did they use Klay's WS stat after missed 2.5y? Really? How they count PHO bigs (Ayton, Saric, Kamisky, McGee, Biyombo, Smith) missed total WS? If they are all healthy only Ayton + one big would see playing time. Also bigs WS >>> guards WS, this adv stats doesnt show real impact for smaller players. WS/48 shows you how bigs are protected by this stats.

Kaminsky .228
Ayton .203
McGee .201
Biyombo .170
Cam .156
Smith .137

Curry .173
Green .131
Poole .126
Wiggs .105
Klay .091

Look at Curry and Paul WS and WS/48

Curry 63g 8.0ws .173ws/48
Paul 65g 9.4ws .210ws/48

These players are in different stratospheres


Sorry not WS but VORP.

No stat is perfect but I believe it’s a pretty fair representation.


Sorry that Denver bubble is way too small...
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#117 » by PeteyPablo » Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:20 pm

During the 2021-2022 season , as has been documented many times - LA Clippers' Kawhi Leonard missed all 82 games plus 2 play in games. During the first three months of the season Paul George and team were in the top 4 seeds of the Western Conference. Once George went out with an elbow injury , Clippers slipped down to the 5th ,6th, 7th seed, ultimately ending the season with the 8th seed ( Play Ins were after the fact ). There were many close games that if they had a closer ( Kawhi or George ) who could muster up a bucket or get to the free throw line in the last minute of the game , they could have ended up with 50 wins last season versus the 42 they actually finished with. There were some good things that came about like giving playing time to their young guys and having a year to gel. Now they have added Roger Covington, Norman Powell, John Wall and Kawhi Leonard. 50 plus wins are reasonable to get even with load managing - barring any major injuries.
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#118 » by Ballerhogger » Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:27 pm

MemphisX wrote:
Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter

Of course we’re not listed yet . Very smart Vegas :lol:
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#119 » by Beethoven » Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:45 pm

If Lakers are listed at anywhere near 30 I'll take the over
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Re: Early Vegas 2022-23 NBA Win Totals 

Post#120 » by YogurtProducer » Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:39 pm

mademan wrote:44.5 for Raps is incredible value

Yeah not sure how a young team whose improved their roster since the start of the last season and won 48 games last year is at 44.5.
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