Little Swaggy: The Kelly Oubre Jr Thread

[Braggins]

44.0/34.5/66.7 shooting splits
Higher fga per 36 than Miles and nearly on par with Rozier
1.1 assists in 26 mpg
-1.4 bpm

Was also basically the best year of his career in terms of shooting.

[Braggins]

Oubre had the highest 3pt attempts per 100 possessions of any player on the team last season. He was at 13.3 vs 11.6 for Rozier, 11.2 for LaMelo, 8.2 for PJ, and 6.8 for Hayward. He also had a higher % of his field goals taken from 3pt than anyone on the team.

Oubre is 33.1% from 3pt for his career with a season high of 35.2% and he took 3pt shots at literally twice the rate of Gordon Hayward, who has shoot 39.6% over the last three season. Rozier has shot 38.8% over the last three seasons. LaMelo was 38.9% last season. PJ is 37.5% for his career.

So, hes a below average 3pt shooter taking mostly 3pt shots and at a higher frequency than anyone on the team, with by far the worst assist rate and defensive +/- of anyone on the team.

[MPM]

Oubre had the highest 3pt attempts per 100 possessions of any player on the team last season. He was at 13.3 vs 11.6 for Rozier, 11.2 for LaMelo, 8.2 for PJ, and 6.8 for Hayward. He also had a higher % of his field goals taken from 3pt than anyone on the team.

Oubre is 33.1% from 3pt for his career with a season high of 35.2% and he took 3pt shots at literally twice the rate of Gordon Hayward, who has shoot 39.6% over the last three season. Rozier has shot 38.8% over the last three seasons. LaMelo was 38.9% last season. PJ is 37.5% for his career.

So, hes a below average 3pt shooter taking mostly 3pt shots and at a higher frequency than anyone on the team, with by far the worst assist rate and defensive +/- of anyone on the team.

I would love to get value for Oubre somehow. I knew he was a dice roll when we signed him - he's been a negative contributor his entire career - and we were all a bit blinded by what was a prolonged honeymoon period and his occasional offensive outbursts. Maybe - maybe - as some have suggested, Cliff can make him serviceable enough, but I'd rather swap him for someone with positive value - be it on or off the court. Still like the idea of Pat Bev.

[fatlever]

Oubre had the highest 3pt attempts per 100 possessions of any player on the team last season. He was at 13.3 vs 11.6 for Rozier, 11.2 for LaMelo, 8.2 for PJ, and 6.8 for Hayward. He also had a higher % of his field goals taken from 3pt than anyone on the team.

Oubre is 33.1% from 3pt for his career with a season high of 35.2% and he took 3pt shots at literally twice the rate of Gordon Hayward, who has shoot 39.6% over the last three season. Rozier has shot 38.8% over the last three seasons. LaMelo was 38.9% last season. PJ is 37.5% for his career.

So, hes a below average 3pt shooter taking mostly 3pt shots and at a higher frequency than anyone on the team, with by far the worst assist rate and defensive +/- of anyone on the team.

It's a shame, because he's so good when he attacks the rim.
He could be such a useful player if he just made a few adjustments to his game, all of which he has the skills and ability to do.
Pass more, take better shots, attack rim more, actually try to play defense beyond swiping for Steals

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[JMAC3]

Typically the more 3s you take the lower the effectiveness will be. Steph is a great example, he is easily the best shooter in the league, but only shot 38% last year. Why? because he was shooting so many his quality of look was not great.

If Oubre was put in a better role where he doesn't have to be the primary scorer on the 2nd unit and force shots. I think he could be a more effective 3pt shooter. More in range of 37% if we still play at a good pace and get him good quality looks either off orebs or transition threes.

PJ is a better percentage shooter, but because he plays the 4/5 I would bet he gets a lot more cleaner looks than Rozier or Oubre who are being guarded by much better perimeter defenders.

[yosemiteben]

Oubre was a starter for a while and was still a gunner. I don't think he can blame his spot on the rotation for that.

[JMAC3]

Oubre was a starter for a while and was still a gunner. I don't think he can blame his spot on the rotation for that.

He only started 13 games last year, pretty small sample size. Especially since most came with Rozier out of the lineup and he was filling into that role.

I guess most will never see eye to eye with me on this, but when you are on the court with McDaniels, Martin, Plumlee/PJ someone has to shoot the ball, I would rather have Oubre fire a three at 35% then have the ball in one of those guys hands with less than 5 seconds on the shot clock. We lacked scorers off the bench last year and it lead to Oubre and Rozier trying to play hero ball way too much.

[Rays Pompadour]

Oubre was a starter for a while and was still a gunner. I don't think he can blame his spot on the rotation for that.

He only started 13 games last year, pretty small sample size. Especially since most came with Rozier out of the lineup and he was filling into that role.

I guess most will never see eye to eye with me on this, but when you are on the court with McDaniels, Martin, Plumlee/PJ someone has to shoot the ball, I would rather have Oubre fire a three at 35% then have the ball in one of those guys hands with less than 5 seconds on the shot clock. We lacked scorers off the bench last year and it lead to Oubre and Rozier trying to play hero ball way too much.

Unfortunately, I don't see that changing much with last year's roster almost completely intact for 2022-23.

[JMAC3]

Unfortunately, I don't see that changing much with last year's roster almost completely intact for 2022-23.

I agree, just think it's important to understand roles. Oubre could go out and refuse to shoot so many threes and pass the ball and move the ball on offense, but that means tougher shots for other guys and now all of a sudden Cody Martin and McDaniels are being asked to do too much and no longer staring in their roles.

Martin and McDaniels are basically only shooting threes if they are wide open, if all of a sudden they are having to pull up from midrange, or finish over defenders in the paint at end of shot clock I think they all of sudden are way less effective.

Bouknight could be a nice offensive punch off bench if he gets more minutes this year, but not sure how that allows Martin and McDaniels to hit minute thresholds. Going to be lineup specific if we want more defense or scoring as unfortunately it doesn't seem like we have many reserve wings capable of doing both (not uncommon).

[Braggins]

Typically the more 3s you take the lower the effectiveness will be. Steph is a great example, he is easily the best shooter in the league, but only shot 38% last year. Why? because he was shooting so many his quality of look was not great.

If Oubre was put in a better role where he doesn't have to be the primary scorer on the 2nd unit and force shots. I think he could be a more effective 3pt shooter. More in range of 37% if we still play at a good pace and get him good quality looks either off orebs or transition threes.

PJ is a better percentage shooter, but because he plays the 4/5 I would bet he gets a lot more cleaner looks than Rozier or Oubre who are being guarded by much better perimeter defenders.

Hes been in the league for seven years and his 3pt% was bad even in the years where he was shooting fewer. His 3pt attempts per 100 in 20/21 for Golden State was 7.9 (vs 13.3 last season) and he shot 31.6%. Last season was his 2nd best 3pt% for a season and hes only hit 35% once in his career.

[fatlever]

JMAC
Think of all the possessions where the ball swung to Oubre, just as a means to keep the ball moving and as soon as the ball is headed his way, you can tell he is shooting. It didn't matter if the pass was at his feet, or if his defender was in his jersey, or if we had 18 secs left on the shot clock, or if a teammate was wide open, or if a drive was the better action. None of it mattered, Kelly gonna Kelly and Jack up a 3.

It was beyond frustrating. He has irrational confidence in his jumper because he knows he can get red hot where none of it matters. But even in the middle of his months long slump, he wouldn't change.

Was JB asking this of him? I doubt it.

Defensively, he was simply putrid most nights.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[JMAC3]

JMAC
Think of all the possessions where the ball swung to Oubre, just as a means to keep the ball moving and as soon as the ball is headed his way, you can tell he is shooting. It didn't matter if the pass was at his feet, or if his defender was in his jersey, or if we had 18 secs left on the shot clock, or if a teammate was wide open, or if a drive was the better action. None of it mattered, Kelly gonna Kelly and Jack up a 3.

It was beyond frustrating. He has irrational confidence in his jumper because he knows he can get red hot where none of it matters. But even in the middle of his months long slump, he wouldn't change.

Was JB asking this of him? I doubt it.

Defensively, he was simply putrid most nights.

Oubre is a guy that everyone wants to pin our problems on, you watch the game from a negative light and every defensive mistake or bad shot he takes it is seared into your brain based on the pre-existing notion that he is the reason we aren't good.

However, I promise you can watch anyone on the team on defense and if you watch every time they get scored on or point to the reason he allowed that team to score everyone is going to look like a bad defender. I have done it with everyone on this team including our best defender in Martin. I have watched him get bullied in the post, beaten off dribble, slow in rotations, foul a three point shooter all in a 5 min stretch.

Spencer Percy is the king of watching games looking for Miles Bridges defensive mistakes and posting them on twitter. Again, I promise you can do it for everyone on the team. We are giving up 115 points per game, it is not just 1 or even 2 guys fault.

I do not think Oubre is a great defender by any means, but he also isn't constantly attacked by teams bringing him into pick and rolls, posting him up etc... I think he can improve his team defense for sure.

[JMAC3]

Offensively he was 5th in fga, 3rd in fga per 36. Compared to 5th in scoring and 3rd in scoring per 36 (Excluded IT, because of lack of GP). Swear the way some of you talk he attempts 30 shots per game in 15 mpg.

He averaged 15 ppg on 54% EFG
Whereas Martin was 7.7 ppg on 55% EFG
McDaniels was 6.2 ppg on 56% EFG.

If you think they both can double their production and not see a large drop off in efficiency then maybe they are the answer, I just don't think either is very good on offense and would be exposed if they had to be a main offensive cog.

[JMAC3]

Without looking it up... how many 20+ point games do you think..

Cody Martin has in his 3 year career?
McDaniels has in his 3 year career?

and Oubre had this year?

I am just curious and the answers could be fun, dont cheat haha

[Braggins]

Offensively he was 5th in fga, 3rd in fga per 36. Compared to 5th in scoring and 3rd in scoring per 36 (Excluded IT, because of lack of GP). Swear the way some of you talk he attempts 30 shots per game in 15 mpg.

He averaged 15 ppg on 54% EFG
Whereas Martin was 7.7 ppg on 55% EFG
McDaniels was 6.2 ppg on 56% EFG.

If you think they both can double their production and not see a large drop off in efficiency then maybe they are the answer, I just don't think either is very good on offense and would be exposed if they had to be a main offensive cog.

Oubres career ts% is 54.2%. Its a bad thing that he was 3rd on the team in fga per 36. Thats the point. Its bad that a 33% career 3pt shooter was taking 3s at the highest rate of anyone on the team. He shouldn't be given the opportunity to be taking a bunch of shots on an NBA team that is trying to win because hes not a good shooter or scorer at this level.

No one thinks Martin and McDaniels wouldn't drop in efficiency if the doubled their shooting rate. I don't see what your point is. If they doubled how often they were taking shots it would be a bad thing for the same reason its bad for Oubre to be taking that many shots (because they are not good shooters or scorers). They are on the court for defense, which isn't the case for Oubre because hes even worse on defense than offense. If Martin and McDaniels stopped trying on defense and started jacking up shots every time they got the ball then they wouldn't be playable.

[JMAC3]

Offensively he was 5th in fga, 3rd in fga per 36. Compared to 5th in scoring and 3rd in scoring per 36 (Excluded IT, because of lack of GP). Swear the way some of you talk he attempts 30 shots per game in 15 mpg.

He averaged 15 ppg on 54% EFG
Whereas Martin was 7.7 ppg on 55% EFG
McDaniels was 6.2 ppg on 56% EFG.

If you think they both can double their production and not see a large drop off in efficiency then maybe they are the answer, I just don't think either is very good on offense and would be exposed if they had to be a main offensive cog.

Oubres career ts% is 54.2%. Its a bad thing that he was 3rd on the team in fga per 36. Thats the point. Its bad that a 33% career 3pt shooter was taking 3s at the highest rate of anyone on the team. He shouldn't be given the opportunity to be taking a bunch of shots on an NBA team that is trying to win because hes not a good shooter or scorer at this level.

No one thinks Martin and McDaniels wouldn't drop in efficiency if the doubled their shooting rate. I don't see what your point is. If they doubled how often they were taking shots it would be a bad thing for the same reason its bad for Oubre to be taking that many shots (because they are not good shooters or scorers). They are on the court for defense, which isn't the case for Oubre because hes even worse on defense than offense. If Martin and McDaniels stopped trying on defense and started jacking up shots every time they got the ball then they wouldn't be playable.

My point is that if Oubre shoots less like everyone wants, then someone has to shoot more. Even more now that we don't have Miles. So who is taking all these shots if it is not McDaniels and Martin?

I am all for putting out guys that can play defense, but they have to be able to score too. We can't have a lineup of Rozier, Martin, McDaniels, Thor and Mark Williams just out there playing defense and then everyone on other end of the floor scared to look at the rim other than Terry.

[luciano-davidwesley]

Without looking it up... how many 20+ point games do you think..

Cody Martin has in his 3 year career?
McDaniels has in his 3 year career?

and Oubre had this year?

I am just curious and the answers could be fun, dont cheat haha

I'm guessing the first two have none. BUT also that isn't their job, they don't get as many minutes as Oubre and both are much better defenders than Oubre and don't stop ball movement. It would be more Bouknight you'd be looking at to replace Oubre's offense, not those two.

Also Bouknight, Martin and McDaniels have some chance of improving as players but Oubre is too ingrained in his ways to improve or evolve as a player.

[Braggins]

My point is that if Oubre shoots less like everyone wants, then someone has to shoot more... So who is taking all these shots if it is not McDaniels and Martin?

I would have preferred Malik Monk

[JDR720]

Oubre can be our #1 scoring option when he is hot.

But when he isn't, he shouldn't even be played. He doesn't do anything else at an even average level. And his defense doesn't exist.

His shots should go to Melo, Rozier, Gordon and pretty much anyone else who can score efficiently. Pre-Miles debacle, we had five 15-20ppg scorers. It isn't like we rely on Oubre or he brings something that other players on the team don't.

[fatlever]

@jmac
The difference is effort. It's the bare minimum a player can do on defense. If cody gets scored on or beat, it's almost never a lack of effort.

Oubre on the other hand had numerous plays every game of jogging out to close on shooters, jogging back on defense, swiping at the ball while his man went past him, feet in concrete.

That's why he is so frustrating because his problems are all within his control to fix.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM Forums mobile app