Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[NatP4]

The team will absolutely get shredded if you start a lineup of Morris-Beal-Barton-Kuzma-Porzingis. That is one single plus defender in Porzingis. You would lack rebounding and any kind of help/team defense at the 3/4 spots.

Deni is without a doubt one of the top 3 or 4 best players on the team, with upside to get even better. He should be starting and playing 30+ minutes a night.

Morris-Beal-Avdija-Kuzma-Porzingis is where you start, 20-25 games in, you trade Kuzma and Barton away, Deni takes a big leap in efficiency and becomes the new starting 4, Davis plays his way into rotation minutes. You get here eventually:

Morris Wright
Beal Kispert
(Traded for wing) Davis
Avdija Rui
Porzingis Gafford

I’m interested to see what wing player we can get for Kuzma+Barton+picks.

[NatP4]

I wonder if Dallas would be interested in a Barton or Kuzma for Finney-Smith swap. He would fit really nicely on the wing with Avdija/Rui. Maybe Dallas likes Kuzma next to Wood+slightly younger than DFS.

I really like this:

Morris Wright
Beal Davis
DFS Kispert
Avdija Rui
Porzingis Gafford

[nate33]

I don't think we'll see a Wright/Advija combo in the starting lineup for that reason. Teams will just sink in and dare them to take shots they'll likely pass on.

Wright has shot 39% from behind the arc over the last 2 seasons. If anything, I think their skill set is complementary because Avdija's playmaking can help compensate for Wright's lack thereof.

[Dat2U]

I don't think we'll see a Wright/Advija combo in the starting lineup for that reason. Teams will just sink in and dare them to take shots they'll likely pass on.

Wright has shot 39% from behind the arc over the last 2 seasons. If anything, I think their skill set is complementary because Avdija's playmaking can help compensate for Wright's lack thereof.

He made a total of 44 3s last year. Is that really a 3pt threat? To me when you shoot so few, a high % is fluky because it only takes one bad stretch to wreck your percentage. Wright sounds like a passive shooter who ocassionally takes them because he's wide open. That's not a guy that's spacing the floor. Morris is a much bigger threat as a volume 3 pt shooter, as he is a guy defenses will want to account for which is why Morris starts IMO.

[Frichuela]

I don't think we'll see a Wright/Advija combo in the starting lineup for that reason. Teams will just sink in and dare them to take shots they'll likely pass on.

Wright has shot 39% from behind the arc over the last 2 seasons. If anything, I think their skill set is complementary because Avdija's playmaking can help compensate for Wright's lack thereof.

He made a total of 44 3s last year. Is that really a 3pt threat? To me when you shoot so few, a high % is fluky because it only takes one bad stretch to wreck your percentage. Wright sounds like a passive shooter who ocassionally takes them because he's wide open. That's not a guy that's spacing the floor. Morris is a much bigger threat as a volume 3 pt shooter, as he is a guy defenses will want to account for which is why Morris starts IMO.

Agreed. But if we start Morris we need to start Deni at SF. Otherwise, a Morris-Beal-Barton combo is gonna get murdered defensively. The other option is Rui for Deni at SF…but we all know about his team defensive lapses…

[doclinkin]

Picking over shot charts to see complementary styles, I'd like to see:

Morris -- above average everywhere except the left corner three. no-mistake ballhandler. needs help on defense. penetrate and dish attacker. Maybe his numbers drop when wide open shots are not hand delivered to him by the Joker, but still, he knows how to play with a high post Big.

Kispert -- not a ballhandling guard, but strong shooting from the right side (47% from right corner 3), smart cuts to the basket. Decent team defender even if he is not a shut down guy.

Deni -- secondary ballhandler, distributor, solid defender positions 2-4. Good team defender and man-on. Playmaking from the screening position, the relay man and hockey assist guy. It would help if Deni could develop a solid mid-range jumper when left alone. He has shot slightly better with the straightaway 3 at the top of the key. If he develops a reliable shot from there then he is a weapon to fill in behind Morris when teams load up to stop the pick and roll/backdoor game.

Rui -- 1-on-1 defender to slow opponent's best option. Incandescent scoring from 3, especially on the left side (over 50% on 60 shots last year). Park him on that side to draw the 2nd big away from the paint, then back door them to death with Kispert. Rui doesn't need to move much, unless he and Morris develop chemistry on some signal that tells him when to crash the paint to catch and crush it.

Porzingis -- scoring down the middle on high post pick and roll, or roll and pull up from mid, solid on pick and pop 3 from the elbow extended. Defensive deterrent when established on the low block.

We would struggle on rebounding unless someone has found a way to motivate Rui, or if Deni has gotten stronger. But there are scoring options at 4 positions, space for Monte to drive and dish, opportunities for Deni/Corey to play the screen and cut game, and for Rui to be spoon fed at positions where he can feast.

Maybe we only see this configuration if Quarterbillion Beal is taking a rest day. But still, I can see the motion and plays for this set.

[nate33]

I don't think we'll see a Wright/Advija combo in the starting lineup for that reason. Teams will just sink in and dare them to take shots they'll likely pass on.

Wright has shot 39% from behind the arc over the last 2 seasons. If anything, I think their skill set is complementary because Avdija's playmaking can help compensate for Wright's lack thereof.

He made a total of 44 3s last year. Is that really a 3pt threat? To me when you shoot so few, a high % is fluky because it only takes one bad stretch to wreck your percentage. Wright sounds like a passive shooter who ocassionally takes them because he's wide open. That's not a guy that's spacing the floor. Morris is a much bigger threat as a volume 3 pt shooter, as he is a guy defenses will want to account for which is why Morris starts IMO.

Wright averaged 4.3 3PAs per 36 two years ago and 2.9 3PAs per 36 last year on 40% and 38% shooting respectively.

I don't see why that's notably worse than Morris who averaged 4.0 3PAs per 36 two years ago and 5.0 3PAs per 36 last year on 38% and 39.5% shooting respectively.

[wall_glizzy]

Wright has shot 39% from behind the arc over the last 2 seasons. If anything, I think their skill set is complementary because Avdija's playmaking can help compensate for Wright's lack thereof.

He made a total of 44 3s last year. Is that really a 3pt threat? To me when you shoot so few, a high % is fluky because it only takes one bad stretch to wreck your percentage. Wright sounds like a passive shooter who ocassionally takes them because he's wide open. That's not a guy that's spacing the floor. Morris is a much bigger threat as a volume 3 pt shooter, as he is a guy defenses will want to account for which is why Morris starts IMO.

Wright averaged 4.3 3PAs per 36 two years ago and 2.9 3PAs per 36 last year on 40% and 38% shooting respectively.

I don't see why that's notably worse than Morris who averaged 4.0 3PAs per 36 two years ago and 5.0 3PAs per 36 last year on 38% and 39.5% shooting respectively.

I mean, the sample of actual attempts over those two seasons is about ~450 for Morris vs. ~285 for Wright, and that's with Monte missing half the season in 2020-21. Monte also had a further two seasons prior to that of very similar numbers. I'm not super concerned about Wright's percentages, per se, but there's room to wonder about his efficacy as a floor spacer.

Thomas Bryant was a classic example of this - a strong percentage shooter who nevertheless operated on such low volume that he didn't really affect the defense at all - if the cost of fully ignoring a perimeter player is likely to be no more than a single made three, it's probably a worthwhile trade-off to have that player's defender sagging way into the paint to help on drives all game. And of course, if leaving Bryant wide open leads to him hanging out on the perimeter even more, i.e. away from the rim where he's much more effective, all the better.

So anyway, the question is not so much whether any given Delon Wright attempt has a good chance to go in so much as whether he can shoot enough threes (at his decently-proven hit rate) to command the defense's respect and provide sufficient floor spacing to bolster lineups with a couple unequivocal non-shooters like Deni. I'm not particularly worried about it, but it's certainly easier said than done to elevate the open look or two a defense might give up in the course of a game to more and better-contested shooting while keeping the same percentages.

[payitforward]

I don't understand why this is a compelling question, or how any definitive answer to "who should start at PG" can be given based on either guy's 3pt % alone.

We need to get 2200-2300 minutes out of each of these guys. Why? Because they are among the most reliably productive players we have. &, because if we do that, we can control Beal's minutes so that he too is at about 2300 minutes.

That's easier if we start Monte Morris at PG. A secondary effect of that choice is to allow Kispert to play the 3, which is his natural position.

Why it isn't obvious how good a player Monte Morris is, I just don't understand. Again: last season he started at PG for a much much much better team than the Wizards. He was extremely effective. As he had been in previous years.

We traded with Denver to acquire Monte Morris. We wanted to acquire him, so that he could start for us at PG. I expect him to be even better with us than he was at Denver.

The best part is that, because Delon Wright is so good (& he is -- he's very good), we should have quite a strong 3-guard rotation. If Bradley Beal returns to his earlier level of productivity, that is.

[dckingsfan]

Either way - this is why this thread is the most important thread of the upcoming season. Who Wes plays and how he adjusts as the season progresses will dictate the season. In some respects it will dictate the future - which youngsters he plays for example.

[WallToWall]

I look forward to seeing a lineup of Wright, Beal, Avdija, Kuzma, Porzingus. It has the potential of having two reasonably good 1-on-1 defenders in the lineup. That lineup could probably outscore more other teams starting 5. On paper, a bench of Morris, Kispert, Barton, Hachimura, Gafford is a strong bench. One thing we still lack is bangers in the paint, we need at least one, and I dont consider Gibson to be the answer. Aside from KP, we lack height. I think our 6'10 guys are more like 6'9. Our rebounding number will be better than last year, predicting just above average numbers for rebounds. I'll be keeping an eye on league stats for the combination of altered + blocked shots, as I think we have good potential to be top 6 if we stay healthy. Health is a concern given history of Porzingus, Beal, Hachimura, and Gafford.

[nate33]

Aside from KP, we lack height. I think our 6'10 guys are more like 6'9.

Wright is 6-5 which is tall for a PG
Beal is 6-4 which is a little small for a SG
Avdija is 6-9 which is tall for a SF
Kuzma is 6-9.5 which is average for a PF
Porzingis is 7-3 which is tall for a center

I don't think height is much of an issue.

[payitforward]

A slightly different look at minutes, starting with guard.

Last year, @6200 minutes were played at guard by KCP (who played some at the 3), Dinwiddie, Neto, Holiday, Ish & Sato, all of whom are gone.

On the assumption that Brad plays a whole season, let's assume that only 5200 of those minutes need to be replaced. If Morris & Wright play about 4600 of those minutes, that would leave room for Johnny Davis to pick up 700-900 minutes as a rookie.

Does that make sense as a framework?

[nate33]

A slightly different look at minutes, starting with guard.

Last year, @6200 minutes were played at guard by KCP (who played some at the 3), Dinwiddie, Neto, Holiday, Ish & Sato, all of whom are gone.

On the assumption that Brad plays a whole season, let's assume that only 5200 of those minutes need to be replaced. If Morris & Wright play about 4600 of those minutes, that would leave room for Johnny Davis to pick up 700-900 minutes as a rookie.

Does that make sense as a framework?

Kispert and/or Barton will probably play some guard minutes too.

[WallToWall]

A slightly different look at minutes, starting with guard.

Last year, @6200 minutes were played at guard by KCP (who played some at the 3), Dinwiddie, Neto, Holiday, Ish & Sato, all of whom are gone.

On the assumption that Brad plays a whole season, let's assume that only 5200 of those minutes need to be replaced. If Morris & Wright play about 4600 of those minutes, that would leave room for Johnny Davis to pick up 700-900 minutes as a rookie.

Does that make sense as a framework?

It is more likely that he will get 350-450 mins, with most of those minutes coming later in the season. There are at least 2 others ahead of him in the depth chart. Given whatever ailment he is currently battling, and being a rookie, I’d expect they bring him along slowly.

[payitforward]

When's the last time a rookie taken as high as #10 got no more than the 350-400 minutes?

[doclinkin]

I will say I do like the ways Tommy has improved the squad this year.
The team is starting to seem like a good fit for Wes' style.

In Morris, Wright, Barton we added outside shooting.
(In limited attempts even Taj Gibson hit nearly 40% of his 3's last year. 60% from the left corner).

We added passing in Morris, Wright. Likewise an overlooked aspect of Will Barton's game is passing. He regularly put up 6+ assists last year, averaging 4 a game, against 2 TO's. He's solid in the pick and roll. Yeah it helps that he was passing to Jokic but he has a 2:1 asst/TO ratio over his career.

Spacing and ball movement. Player movement. Find the open guy. Hit the open shots. Get open. Opening everything else up by inverting the court with face-up bigs who can handle a bit or hit from range, or both. When things are clicking I expect we can play a smart scheme that is fun to watch and that the players enjoy. The ball won't stick with any one guy but should pop around the court to find the smart shot.

[dckingsfan]

I will say I do like the ways Tommy has improved the squad this year.
The team is starting to seem like a good fit for Wes' style.

In Morris, Wright, Barton we added outside shooting.
(In limited attempts even Taj Gibson hit nearly 40% of his 3's last year. 60% from the left corner).

We added passing in Morris, Wright. Likewise an overlooked aspect of Will Barton's game is passing. He regularly put up 6+ assists last year, averaging 4 a game, against 2 TO's. He's solid in the pick and roll. Yeah it helps that he was passing to Jokic but he has a 2:1 asst/TO ratio over his career.

Spacing and ball movement. Player movement. Find the open guy. Hit the open shots. Get open. Opening everything else up by inverting the court with face-up bigs who can handle a bit or hit from range, or both. When things are clicking I expect we can play a smart scheme that is fun to watch and that the players enjoy. The ball won't stick with any one guy but should pop around the court to find the smart shot.

I can't disagree that we improved offensively (even if it is marginally or maybe more that that depending on 2022 Beal). How about the other side of the ball?

[Dat2U]

The team will absolutely get shredded if you start a lineup of Morris-Beal-Barton-Kuzma-Porzingis. That is one single plus defender in Porzingis. You would lack rebounding and any kind of help/team defense at the 3/4 spots.

I don't see a problem with this when I keep seeing footage of Wembamyama looking KD'esque at 7-5.

[DCZards]

I will say I do like the ways Tommy has improved the squad this year.
The team is starting to seem like a good fit for Wes' style.

In Morris, Wright, Barton we added outside shooting.
(In limited attempts even Taj Gibson hit nearly 40% of his 3's last year. 60% from the left corner).

We added passing in Morris, Wright. Likewise an overlooked aspect of Will Barton's game is passing. He regularly put up 6+ assists last year, averaging 4 a game, against 2 TO's. He's solid in the pick and roll. Yeah it helps that he was passing to Jokic but he has a 2:1 asst/TO ratio over his career.

Spacing and ball movement. Player movement. Find the open guy. Hit the open shots. Get open. Opening everything else up by inverting the court with face-up bigs who can handle a bit or hit from range, or both. When things are clicking I expect we can play a smart scheme that is fun to watch and that the players enjoy. The ball won't stick with any one guy but should pop around the court to find the smart shot.

I can't disagree that we improved offensively (even if it is marginally or maybe more that that depending on 2022 Beal). How about the other side of the ball?

Deni seems on track to becoming one of the best defenders in the game.

Wright and Davis are upgrades defensively. We’ll miss KCP’s D though.

KP’s shotblocking improves our interior D. Gibson will help on that end of the court to some extent.