Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 (Villanova)

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Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 (Villanova) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:22 am

How it works
Simple ballot system: 3 votes/ballots [3-2-1 point system]. The "source" with the most points will take the spot.

It looks like interest in this project is limited, so I'm not going to have a designated time-limit for each place [though I don't want to leave each open for 4-5 days]; we'll probably aim for something in the neighborhood of 48 hours each, but we'll see.
This may be one of those projects that fizzles out quick due to lack of interest, but I'm hoping at least 2-3 people will come along with me for it.
There will be no approval of participants; anyone can pop in at any time to vote/contribute, even on a sporadic or part-time basis. No "arguments" will be required to accompany votes, though a list of notable players from each source being voted for is encouraged.....this will help jog memories, as well as stimulate conversation (and may help clarify the "source" in some rare cases where it is ambiguous). Hopefully we'll pick up some participants along the way.

How you want to consider those universities/sources (in terms of considerations of total players vs quality of players, etc) is entirely up to you [though others may wish to debate your selection criteria].

I'm hoping to make it out to around the top 20 [or so] "sources" of all-time for pro [NBA/ABA/BAA/NBL] players, but we'll see.


The "Talent Sources"
We are going to include non-university sources, as to do otherwise just leaves too many relevant players on the table.
Besides, it occurred to me that when scrutinizing the resulting list, one can just mentally exclude the non-university sources [I'll even colour-code those differently to make it easier], and what's left is an ordered list of the universities (as well as an ordered list of other sources)......two birds, right?
The source can be of the following three types:

a) (an American) University/College - if they played even one year at the university, that will be designated the default "source" of that pro player. If a player played at multiple universities, you can mentally factor that in to consideration for ALL universities played at, give preference to the university he had his BEST years at, or to the university he played LONGER at.....whatever; up to you.

b) a Non-USA Country (if not subject to "a" above) - This one is only to be considered a potential source IF they did not attend an American university. Examples would be guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, or Nikola Jokic.......their country of origin is considered the "source".
Someone like Hakeem Olajuwon, otoh, would be considered from the University of Houston [and not Nigeria].

In the event of using this designation, we may have individuals where consensus on just WHERE a player is "from" is debatable. Tony Parker is a good example: born in Belgium to an American father and Dutch mother, but raised in France (confusing already, right?). But most of us consider Tony from France [he played for their national team, too], as that's where he grew up.

And to me, that's what it's more about: where they grew up (rather than where they were born (or the nationality of his parents)). There may end up being a player for whom the "source" country is ambiguous and debatable; but we'll cross that bridge as we come to it (and again: that's why it's good to give at least a partial list of WHO you have in mind when placing a vote, so we can debate things like this as needed).

c) an American Highschool Zone - Self-explanatory: this is for American players who did NOT have a college career, but rather went straight to pro.
Having just "USA" as a single source for all American players who did NOT attend a university is just too great a source......it ends up blowing away all the competition at this point (we've just seen too many great players out of highschool now, it holds too much of a sample-size advantage over any American university).
So I've opted to break it up into three zones, which are as follows....

The East Coast Zone - This includes all states that actually make up part of America's eastern coastline [including Washington D.C. simply because it basically resides within Maryland]. That is: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticutt. Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland [including D.C.], Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

The East-Central Zone - This includes the states west of our "East Coast Zone", but east of [or inclusive of, in one case] the Missouri River. That is: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Missouri.

The Western Zone - All the states that are left: Texas, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii.


That's 14 states in the East Coast Zone, 16 in the East-Central Zone, and 20 in the Western Zone.
If you want to know why I broke them up in this manner, I wanted zones that had some geographical rhyme or reason, but also zones that had similar overall population.....
The East Coast Zone has a population of just over 108 million by recent census.
The East-Central Zone has just under 102 million.
The Western Zone has just over 119 million.

So the Western Zone has the largest population, BUT that's only by recent census. If we jumped back 60-70 years ago, that was not at all the case. Nearer the start of BAA/NBA history, the Western Zone would have been the LEAST populous zone. The population of states like California, Arizona, Nevada, and even Texas have really taken off in more modern eras.
Basketball also started out East, and spread west more gradually. So I intentionally made it the largest zone [today] to compensate somewhat for that consideration, while still having some manner of geographical demarkation to go with.

Gimme' your top 3 picks [in order] for the #25 spot.....

1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. East Coast Zone (highschool)
6. Duke
7. Georgetown
8. East-Central Zone (highschool)
9. Michigan State
10. Wake Forest
11. Houston
12. Ohio State
13. Indiana
14. LSU
15. Arizona
16. Texas
17. Michigan
18. UCONN
19. Marquette
20. Georgia Tech
21. Spain
22. USC
23. Illinois
24. DePaul

Spoiler:
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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:23 am

Titles (as top 3)
San Francisco - 11 (Bill Russell; additional titles for KC Jones and Bill Cartwright, but likely not as top-3 players)
France - 4 (Tony Parker)
Minnesota - 2 [3?] (Kevin McHale - 2, [Kleggie Hermsen - 1?? with '48 Bullets]; NOTE: McHale does have a 3rd, and Mychal Thompson has two with the Lakers; Whitey Skoog won two with the early 50's Lakers, too; and Don Carlson won two with the 40s/50s Lakers.....just none as top-3 players; lots of BAA/NBA titles represented here, though)
Villanova - 2 (Kyle Lowry - 1, Paul Arizin - 1; additional title for Chris Ford, but likely not top-3 player)
Notre Dame - 2 (Bill Laimbeer)
Cincinnati - 1 (Oscar Robertson)
Western Zone - 1??? (Tyson Chandler on '11 Mavs??)
Serbia - 0
St. John's - 0
Louisiana Tech - 0

Total WS
Notre Dame - 769.0
Minnesota - 751.0
Villanova - 710.2
St. John's - 664.0
Cincinnati - 564.3
Louisiana Tech - 469.6
San Francisco - 429.2
France - 396.7
Western Zone - 317.8
Serbia - 275.9

Total Players (Mean WS)
Notre Dame - 60 (12.8)
St. John's - 55 (12.1)
Villanova - 52 (13.7)
Minnesota - 50 (15.0)
Cincinnati - 39 (14.5)
San Francisco - 25 (17.2)
Serbia - 24 (11.5)
France - 21 (18.89)
Louisiana Tech - 9 (52.2)
Western Zone - 9 identified so far (35.31)

Score [the one I'd previously shared]
Notre Dame - 333.52
St. John's - 315.62
Minnesota - 306.45
Louisiana Tech - 299.29
Villanova - 287.39
Cincinnati - 260.39
France - 206.80
San Francisco - 195.83
Western Zone - 155.11
Serbia - 154.86

All-Star Selections
Cincinnati - 20
Minnesota - 19
Louisiana Tech - 19
Villanova - 19
St. John's - 17 [admittedly, several are from the 1950s]
San Francisco - 17
Notre Dame - 15
France - 9
Serbia - 5
Western Zone - 3

MVP's
San Francisco - 5
Serbia - 2
Louisiana Tech - 2
Cincinnati - 1
Notre Dame/Western Zone/Villanova/France/St. John's/Minnesota - 0 each


Regarding France's numbers [newly added this thread]:
31 players are listed as born in France on bbref......but on closer exam you find several grew up in America and went to American universities. A few others grew up in France, but then attended American universities, most showing dramatic improvement while in that NCAA program. The one exception is Yakhouba Diawara, who entered Pepperdine in his early 20's, playing two seasons there [without showing notable improvement, by the numbers]; so I've credited the second half only of his meager NBA career to France.
Plus there's Tony Parker---who's not listed among those 31 because he was born in Belgium, but we know he's a product of France.

btw, found one more player to be credited to the East Coast Zone: William Howard. Born in France, but grew up in Maryland, came to NBA out of highschool. Played just 2 games in his NBA career. :-?

France is interesting: some nice talent at the top in Tony Parker and Rudy Gobert, followed up with Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, Evan Fournier (plus Ian Mahinmi and Alexis Ajinca). But it fairly well falls off a cliff after that. Their weighted avg WS is pretty strong (49.79), and their mean is decent as you can see above. The median WS is just 2.4, though, as there are 10 players with basically non-existent careers ranging from -0.5 to 1.1 WS.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:27 am

Looking at it, I'm sort of glad you guys came together on DePaul. They do have an impressive list of careers for the mid-20s:

George Mikan, Mark Aguirre, Terry Cummings, Rod Strickland.

And then at least a handful of fair/good role players: Wilson Chandler, Ty Corbin, Quentin Richardson, Kevin Edwards, Bobby Simmons, Dave Corzine (and 38 total players).

Decent pick; if I went back, I'd probably swap them in at least as my 3rd pick.
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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#4 » by jalengreen » Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:46 am

Hoping to get a chance to take a closer look but in case I don't, tentatively going with my implied ballot from last time of 1. Villanova 2. Minnesota 3. Cincinnati
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#5 » by trex_8063 » Sat Jul 23, 2022 1:34 am

I will vote a similar ballot as jalengreen (just a different top-heavy candidate as my 3rd ballot):

1. Villanova
2. Minnesota
3. San Francisco


Notre Dame looking strong too; Louisiana Tech not far off [perhaps France, too].
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#6 » by falcolombardi » Sat Jul 23, 2022 1:38 am

I am honestly considering germany but other thab dirk most of its players went to american schools

If i give them partial credit for those careers they may be a surprisingly strong pick but i am not sure of doing that
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#7 » by falcolombardi » Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:09 am

Notredame

total of nba players: 59 ( high)

mvp level players: 0? (low) (dantley?)

notable all star level players: 1 (low) adrian dantley

Borderline stars: laimbeer, wooldridge?

Also motable guys as austin carr, kelly tripucka or joe kleine

Total win shares: 769 (high)

Vs

France

total of nba players: 40 ( mid) (per real gm database)

mvp level players: 0? (low)

notable all star level players: 3 ( mid) (parker, gobert, noah)

Notable players: batum, diaw,

Total win shares: 396 (low)

Vs

Minnesota

total of nba players: 48 ( mid)

mvp level players: 1? (Mid) (Mchale)

notable all star players: 1 ( low) lou hudson

Notable players: bobby jackson, archie clark any other?

Total win shares: 751 (high)

Vs

Cincinnati

total of nba players: 38 ( mid)

mvp level players: 1 (Mid) (Oscar)

notable all star level players: 2 ( mid) van exel?, twiman

Notable high end players:nick van exel? lance stephenson?

Total win shares: 564 (mid)

Vs

DePaul

total of nba players: 37 ( mid)

mvp level players: 1 (Mid) (Mikan)

notable all star players: 1 ( mid) ( terry cummings,mark aguirre, rod strickland)

Notable players: tyrone corbin, quentin richardson, etc

Total win shares: 615 (high)

Vs

San Francisco

total of nba players: 24 ( low)

mvp level players: 1 (Mid) (Russel)

notable all star players: 1 ( low) ( Kc jones)

Notable players: Bill Cartwright

Total win shares: 429 (mid)

Vs

St John's

total of nba players: 48( mid)

mvp level players: 0 (low)

notable all star players: 5 ( high) ( Max Zalofzky, metta world peace, marj jackson, Dick McGuire, chris mullin)

Notable players: tyrone corbin, quentin richardson, etc

Total win shares: 664 (high)

Vs

Villanova

Total of nba players (50) (high)

Mvp level players (1) (mid) (paul arizin)

All star level players (1) (low) (kyle lowry)

Notable players: mikal bridges, dante cunningham, randy foye, etc

Total win shares 710 (high)

Vs

Serbia

Total of nba players (24) (low)

Mvp level players (1) (mid) (jokic)

All star level player (2) (mid) (peja stojakovic, divac)

Notable players: Bogdanovic, bjelica

Total win shares 275 (mid)

Vs

Lousiana tech

Total nba players (9)

Mvp level players (1) (mid) (Karl malone)

All star level players (1) (low) (paul millsap)

Notable players: Pj Brown

Total win shares 469 (mid)

Vs

Germany

Total nba players (somewhere between 10-30, not sure how many are usa schooled) is on the low end regardless

Mvp level players (1) (mid) dirk nowitsky

All star level players (0) (low)

High end players (2) if we stretch a bit the definition of notable. Dennis schroeder and maxi clever and isaac harstentein are their most notable guys

As great as dirk is the lack of high end or total depth of talent is weak, they may beat davidson/lousiana tech with depth (maybe) but not san francisco
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#8 » by falcolombardi » Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:17 am

I am gonna pick between france, st johns, villanova, minnesota, cincinatti, notre dame and san francisco

Serbia feels like they cannot come yet until france is off the table (if jokic had a full career by now i may put them over france, it will be interesting if serbia with jokic overcomes france or france with wenbayama overcomes spain and luka)

San francisco has the best player but is the weakest after top 2

St johns has the best 3-5 but the weakest top 2

If i had to choose between st johns really nice top 5 and san francisco incresible top 1 and great top 2 i woulf go st johns by the smallest margin

So i have st johns> san francisco already

Minnesota, notredame and villanova win shares stand out, which is always a good proxy for overall depth. Even if the impact of a player like dantley may(?) be lowet than his win shares there is no doubt it still stands out

So those 3 have a tie breaker right off the bat
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#9 » by falcolombardi » Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:24 am

Cincinatti lacks notable names after top 3, france does after top 3-4 (forgot noah was usa schooled)

Cincinatti has oscar who is a level ahead of france guys so even if france is a bit bettee off in spots 3-5 i rake cinci over them (also win shares edge helps as another tiebreaker)

I will compar3 cincy with the minny/notre/villanova trio then look at st johns vs all 4
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#10 » by falcolombardi » Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:30 am

Minnesota although it has a win shares advantage doesnt seem to have too nuch of a depth edge in talent over cinci. Bobby jacksom is a nice 4th best player but not too big a of a needle mover

I prioritize top players over win shares so by the smallest edge i feel the oscar>Mchale edge is biggee for me than the win shares edge

So i move cinci already over minnesota

Next up is notre dame who has good but not great players after dantley. So by the same reasoning i also have to put cincy over them too

Next is villanova who has a top player who also loses to oscar in arizin, but srguably by a smaller margin that dantley (arizin has a solid case as the best player in the nba at a point between mikan and russel)

I like lowry but i dont know if he is better than twyman for era. And both lack huge namea after that. Players like mikal too short careers yet to mpve the chains much

So by a really short margin cincy over villanova for me too

That leaves me with how to rank st johns and how to rank the minny/villanova/notre dame trio
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#11 » by falcolombardi » Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:01 am

I prefer st johns top 5 over france top 4 here

And where cincy has the weaker(?) 3rd player but by far the best player in comparisions to minny/notre/villa

St johns argument is that they have the weaker top 1 but the better 3-5

I think arizin (short prime, unfortunate circunstances with the military service), mchale (short'ish prime) and dantley (questionable impact signals compared to his production as a scorer) are less of a big deal than oscar

So those 3 having one of those is not as big of a edge as oscar. I feel like having significative all-star'ish depth is a bigger deal than not having their single one "legit" star

So i can see myself voting st johns 2nd for this round

As for third i am not actually convinced tony parker/gobert are -not- in the level of dantley/mchale/arizin careers.

But the win shares and total player gap is much more massive than with cincy or st johns to the point is much mpre significant here for me

On the -other- end. Parker/gobert may be the strongest 2nd best player here over hudson (?)/laimbeer/lowry (or maybe not)

Regardless i feel france falls just the teeniest bit short of those 3. But they are a interesting match vs san francisco

For minny/villa/notre? I am not sure if dantlet was as impactful as arizin or even mchale due to some queationable signals here (consistently being on weak offenses) but his numbers are just monstrous for a long ass time compared to them so if i see him as even close to arizin impact the longevity edge would pyt dantlet over for me

So i would go

1-cincinati
2-st johns
3-notre dame

For now, i am unsure how to evaluate dantley still as a player so i am open to be convinced or brought down on him impact wise

This is a guy with arguably better scoring stats than michael jordan but who was frequently of awful offenses and when he went to a good team they won rings without him (granted aguirre was great too and 88 pistons were more than title worthy so this part worries me less)
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Re: Top NBA Talent Sources of All-Time: #25 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:42 am

Final scores:

Villanova - 6 pts
Minnesota - 4 pts
Cincinnati - 4 pts
St. John's - 2 pts
Notre Dame - 1 pt
San Francisco - 1 pt

Nova takes it. I'll put the next up. You guys tell me when you've had enough....
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire

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