So who's gonna be MVP next year?

[Ein Sof]

I assume it won't be Jokic again... right? Voter fatigue and all that?

Nobody's won it 3x in a row in over 35 years so you'd expect it to happen again eventually but... there's probably a good reason it hasn't yet.

So who's it gonna be?

Giannis?

Embiid?

Morant???

Gimme your hot takes.

[Bank Shot]

I'll go with Giannis. I think it has to be someone fairly close to Jokic's level. I agree Jokic won't win because of voter fatigue but I doubt that the media would be fine with giving the MVP to someone not even in his stratosphere if he's doing his usual thing. Jokic not getting a third with someone like Morant winning would be ridiculous.

I don't think Luka has the horses around him to get it and I'll believe Embiid stays healthy two years in a row when I see it. I'm pretty sure Jokic is going to finish second.

[penbeast0]

Kristen Porzingis when he and Brad Beal lead the Wizards to the best record in the league, though there is a danger that he and Beal split the vote and a lesser player like Giannis or Luka get in. (Hey, you asked for a hot take, this is literally a steaming pile of a take!)

[Ein Sof]

I'll go with Giannis. I think it has to be someone fairly close to Jokic's level. I agree Jokic won't win because of voter fatigue but I doubt that the media would be fine with giving the MVP to someone not even in his stratosphere if he's doing his usual thing. Jokic not getting a third with someone like Morant winning would be ridiculous.

Yeah I mean a highly athletic guard on a winning team would NEVER be awarded MVP over a superior back-to-back MVP player

[Doctor MJ]

I agree with you that it will be very, very hard for Jokic to win the MVP again this season, or really any future year unless his team wins a title. By contrast, I think Curry & Giannis are "ripe" for another MVP after their titles, and other previous champs (LeBron, Kawhi, KD) are in a similar boat. I think Embiid and Doncic are also ripe to voted MVP.

All of that is just speaking to the perceptions of voters, not talking about basketball context.

Jokic might have a very favorable basketball context, and I'm pulling for that. I'd love so much to see Jokic (presumably with Murray & Porter stepping up) lead a team to a title. If the year goes magically enough, might be enough to get him the MVP this year, but more likely such a year would set him up for a future MVP.

I do think Curry & Giannis are likely in quite favorable context as well, and one of the big questions will be whether either of them and their teams would truly "go for it". I think the MVP last year was there for the taking for Giannis, but he's transitioned to a time where he's way more focused on the playoffs.

Older players like LeBron, KD & Curry, I feel like would be more likely to go for the MVP if they're close with most of the season in the books. For each of them, they'd likely see it as their last good chance to get another MVP, and I think all are focused on their legacies, even if they show us that focus very differently.

I think Kawhi stands alone as someone who feels "underrated by the MVP" to this point in his career. While it's really by choice on his part with the way he takes time off in the regular season, if he puts up a traditional MVP-type year, I think voters will feel confident giving him the nod.

Embiid & Doncic represent the contingent where the basketball world is used to seeing them as possibly the best player on the planet, and so an MVP will feel appropriate. As I say that, Embiid has the risk of missing his window. Much of the arguments for Embiid the past few years has come with a confidence that if he brings it all together, his team would clearly become a top tier contender, but the team still hasn't gotten past the 2nd round and Embiid is now 28 years old. He could probably still win the MVP with a less elite team performance if Harden is seen as a major disappointment and the rest of the contenders are flawed, but I think voters were very ready to do that last year while Simmons was a millstone around the 76ers' collective neck, and will be less inclined to do it if Harden seems good.

Doncic on the other hand might have a shot at the MVP even if he can't lead his team to a Top 4 seed. With the loss of Brunson, I expect we're going to see the success of the team really be more tied to Doncic's presence on the court. If he can take a step forward and make a serious argument that the team is better than the previous year (W-L% will probably be the big thing here, but I'll certainly be looking at SRS and other more specific things), people will be ready to give him the MVP if no one else has the right sort of dream season.

You bring up Ja, but I'd say at this point he's in a lower category where people will be reluctant to give him the MVP this year. Could still happen - if he has the best stats leading the best team in the league, that'll certainly do the trick - but I felt the buzz wave of Ja peaked & crashed with his subsequent injuries and the continued success his team had without him.

Beyond all those guys, I think the only other guy who seems like he should be in the conversation based on last year is Tatum. People will be reluctant to vote for him in a way they aren't with Giannis, Curry, LeBron, KD, Kawhi, Embiid, or Doncic, but if the Celtics are clearly the best team and Tatum is clearly the star of the team, he's probably going to be a strong contender.

Forced to rank likelyhood right at this moment:

1. Giannis - likely good health, likely only getting better, probably the best chance to be among the top contenders, proven ability to play at an MVP level of impact if it's important.

2. Curry - high ceiling, low floor. If the Warriors are able to keep playing like they did at the start of last year and late playoffs last year, and Curry's able to put up impressive numbers all year, there will be a big sentimental pull for him. But it's an old team that's had major injury issues everyone of the last 4 seasons.

3. Kawhi - high ceiling, low floor, again. The whole league feels like the Kawhi-PG-Lue Clipper team is scary as hell, but could just as easily have another season waiting on Kawhi to decide he's ready to play.

4. Doncic - feel like he's going to put up massive numbers next year. After that playoff run, it's easy to see how the buzz could snowball.

5. Embiid - we know how prone to injury he is, and we know how much uncertainty there can be on a Doc Rivers team trying to prove it belongs with the very best, but still a major candidate.

[Ron Swanson]

I'll go with Giannis. I think it has to be someone fairly close to Jokic's level. I agree Jokic won't win because of voter fatigue but I doubt that the media would be fine with giving the MVP to someone not even in his stratosphere if he's doing his usual thing. Jokic not getting a third with someone like Morant winning would be ridiculous.

I don't think Luka has the horses around him to get it and I'll believe Embiid stays healthy two years in a row when I see it. I'm pretty sure Jokic is going to finish second.

I mean, if Morant makes another legitimate leap and puts up great box and impact numbers while the Grizzlies win 55+ games, why would this be ridiculous? I think it's really difficult for an older player to win the award these days based on how prevalent load management has become. Luka's going to probably be in my Top-5 less because I think he'll be the best player and more because I think the media has been absolutely clamoring to give it to him the past 2-years, and he fits the easiest criteria (monster counting stats + sole star on his team).

I'd be 100% fine giving it to Jokic for a 3rd time if he has another statistical season like the last two and the Nuggets win 55-60 games. Also anticipating a huge Jayson Tatum boost from the casual fanbase and pundits, but I doubt he's going to have the numbers to sway the more educated voters who look beyond the box score.

Giannis
Luka
Jokic
Embiid

Probably still my Top-4 right there. I think Embiid wants the award more than people think. For a darkhorse candidate, I think Trae might actually be a solid choice.

[parsnips33]

Here's a hot take - AD

If Lakers put a good season together, AD bounces back in terms of health, and LeBron drops his scoring volume a bit, I think he could have a shot

Not necessarily a better shot than Luka, Steph, etc. but more than people might think

[cpower]

clearly Jokic --- imagine his team ended up with 4th seed in the west

[JulesWinnfield]

I buy the voter fatigue thing with Jokic to some degree, but I don’t think it’s as much of an issue today as it would have been 10-15 years ago. It absolutely is a factor but I don’t think he’s disqualified off the bat. I think the MVP voting is more analytic driven than ever, and if Jokic has the best numbers he is going to have a chance. Not to mention that Denver figures to be really really good this year if they stay healthy and have a chance to have the best record in the West if not the league with Murray and Porter JR. back.

I wouldn’t rule him out. I actually don’t think voter fatigue has been a big thing for a while. Rose was not as good as Lebron in 2011 but I don’t think that was as much a voter fatigue thing as it was that the expectations for Miami were insane and no one saw them winning fewer games than Chicago, people though that team could win 70 games and 57 felt disappointing.

Jokic, Giannis, Luka are a clear top 3 to me in no particular order. I would comfortably bet on one of those 3 winning and you can have the rest of the field

[CharityStripe34]

1. Embiid (Outwardly wants it, motivated, Sixers possible bounce-back season)
2. Luka (Motivated, tasted a deep playoff run, may make a mini-leap)
3. Gianni (Generational superstar, will finish top 3-4 every season in his prime)
4. Jokic (See: Greek Freak)
5. Morant (Similar reasoning to Luka, may make a mini-leap and is most exciting player)

Honorable mentions: Curry, Tatum

[atlantabbq99]

Curry..... MVP usually goes to a player on the team that has the most wins. All the young guys on GSW have one year experience now winning a championship. GSW will still have there big three and are set to have the best bench in the NBA.

GSW will be the #1 seed in the west and Curry will benefit from that and get another MVP.

The only thing now that can stop Curry Klay and Green are injuries.

[Dr Positivity]

I'm going to say Embiid breakthrough after multiple 2nd place, and I expect big Harden season to get a strong record, although perhaps if it's too big it will hurt Embiid's chances

Doncic has his best season but not sure if he wins enough games, has a chance though

And Jokic is possible just because Denver could have a top seed year

A sleeper other than Morant would be Young who could put up some big offensive stats and it's plausible the Hawks new team works out after underperformance last year.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Jokic won't win it if it's close.
On the other hand, if Denver has the best record, he keeps his personal stats and the rest of the tier 1 guys are not close in terms of team success he will win it again.

___
Sent from my Nokia 3210 using RealGM mobile app

[eminence]

I actually think Jokic will have a pretty good shot if his squad is healthy and at the top of the league - the story will be - 'see, we all knew he could do this and now he's doing it'.

Embiid would be my first pick for contender. Kawhi another very worthy mention.

Bucks don't seem to go hard enough in the RS any more for me to have Giannis real high. Curry would seem likely to face the same problem. Luka... I'm not seeing the team there for it, I think they take at least a half step back this season, and that's an unlikely recipe for MVP. Tatum doesn't seem to have the rep for it even if I can see it.

Gobert/Zion are my sleeper picks.

[falcolombardi]

There is 0 chances jokic wins again

Voters will never give the award 3 times in a row to a guy who left the playoffs early

[sp6r=underrated]

I don't see Jokic as viable. The NBA is so playoff centric in its thinking that I think voters are going to treat him with skepticism until the Nuggets go on another deep run.

Nor do I think Kawhi is viable. His MVP award share is awfully low but it is a product of how he treats the RS. He treats with as much regard as Hinkie did for maintaining plausible deniability about intentionally losing games: none at all. I doubt the NBA or its stakeholders wants that rewarded.

Old Guard with no shot: Durant (enters season with immense ill will), Lebron (voter fatigue, LA being irrelevant, graded to a much higher standard than other players), Harden (dropped off from MVP level)

I go with Luka, Embiid and Giannis as most likely. Ja is the darkhorse if he breaks out further given how important he'll be to the NBA going forward. Zion if New Orleans is cinderalla. Hat tip to eminence, I like this call, alot.

[sp6r=underrated]

There is 0 chances jokic wins again

Voters will never give the award 3 times in a row to a guy who left the playoffs early

Yup, he'd have to put up insane stats that are somehow better than last year and have the Nuggets pushing 70+ and I'd still think there would be significant resistance.

[RCM88x]

I think Morant will be a favorite if the Grizz are the #1 seed and he misses relatively few games. His style seems like it would really appeal to MVP voters.

Embiid is probably the "next guy in line" if you want to look at it that way but I just don't know if he'll play enough or if the 6ers will be good enough.

[trex_8063]

Kristen Porzingis when he and Brad Beal lead the Wizards to the best record in the league, though there is a danger that he and Beal split the vote and a lesser player like Giannis or Luka get in. (Hey, you asked for a hot take, this is literally a steaming pile of a take!)

Kristen Porzingis? Is that Kristaps's sister?


My hot-take: Jokic 3peat! (it being a 3peat [despite voter fatigue] is what makes it a hot take)

[falcolombardi]

Temptatively luka doncic or joel embiid