What is Curry's Peak Year?

[mdonnelly1989]

It seems like there is a lot of difference.

I have a hard time giving his Peak Year 2016 and 2017 considering who he was surrounded by. Having KD & Klay.

It's not take anything away from those years. They are great, but it's really difficult to tell just how good they were considering.

I thought he played the best stretch of his career in 2020/2021 the last few months.

And then his best playoffs was this year.

Best regular season by a LONG shot was 2015.

So I'm up in the air about which year was his peak.

[parsnips33]

I think he looked best in '21, even with the team missing the playoffs

I think the added skill and mental resilience he's added on over the course of his career more than offset any losses in athleticism

[mdonnelly1989]

I think he looked best in '21, even with the team missing the playoffs

I think the added skill and mental resilience he's added on over the course of his career more than offset any losses in athleticism

I'd also probably give it to 2021. Given that the Big 3 played almost no playing time during the regular season together.

And Curry shined his best in the playoffs when it mattered most (especially in the finals) with as least help he's ever had.

[jalengreen]

I think he looked best in '21, even with the team missing the playoffs

I think the added skill and mental resilience he's added on over the course of his career more than offset any losses in athleticism

I'd also probably give it to 2021. Given that the Big 3 played almost no playing time during the regular season together.

And Curry shined his best in the playoffs when it mattered most (especially in the finals) with as least help he's ever had.

you guys are talking about different seasons. 2021 curry missed the playoffs

[f4p]

Weird how 2016 is winning this poll but people keep voting for 2017 in the peaks project. Confirms my suspicion that people want a curry season up high but know 2016 playoffs keep it from happening so they default to 2017. I picked 2016 because 2017 was too easy and he was still scary in 2016 while struggling. The run up through the OKC double bang game might be top 3 ever.

[Outside]

It seems like there is a lot of difference.

I have a hard time giving his Peak Year 2016 and 2017 considering who he was surrounded by. Having KD & Klay.

KD was not on the Warriors until 2016-17.

It's not take anything away from those years. They are great, but it's really difficult to tell just how good they were considering.

Actually, on/off data for the KD years shows that Curry had a significantly greater positive impact than Durant.

Since 2016-17, in the regular season and playoffs combined, Golden State is plus-1.3 points per 48 minutes with Durant on the floor and Curry off. It's plus-12.1 points per 48 minutes with Curry on the floor and Durant off. Both sample size are well over 2,000 minutes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andybailey/2019/05/12/stephen-curry-not-kevin-durant-is-the-golden-state-warriors-best-player/?sh=234fb5a37b23

I thought he played the best stretch of his career in 2020/2021 the last few months.

And then his best playoffs was this year.

Best regular season by a LONG shot was 2015.

Regarding that last sentence, I have no idea where you get this, unless you mean 2015-16, because that season was one of the great peaks of all time.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html

Regarding the PS, there are cases for multiple seasons being his best. Picking this recently completed season as his best leans heavily on his finals performance, which was exceptional, and while he was very good throughout the playoffs, he wasn't at that level in prior series.

The Denver series was the first time he had played in a month after sustaining a foot injury when Marcus Smart rolled up on his leg, and he came off the bench for four of the five games while playing on a minutes restriction.

In the second round against Memphis, he was pedestrian by his standards -- 26.0 pts, 4.8 reb, 5.8 ast, 56.8 TS%. He was better in some categories against Dallas in the WCF, but still not exceptional for him -- 23.8 pts, 6.6 reb, 7.4 ast, 58.9 TS%.

He was obviously great in the finals against Boston, but the PS is all four series, not just the finals. Other seasons have a good argument for being his best PS overall. For some reason, his 2015 PS gets dismissed, but it was really, really strong. 2017 is another great contender but gets downplayed because of Durant.

2019 has an exceptionally strong case, with Durant out after game 5 against Houston except for 12 minutes in game 5 of the finals. With Durant out, Curry led GS to a series-clinching win against the Rockets when he famously went scoreless in the first half and then scored 33 in the second half to lead them to a comeback win. He absolutely dismantled Portland in the WCF in a sweep despite Portland having double-digit leads in the second half of games 2-4. In the finals against Toronto, he was great even though they lost. When they got Durant, they became a top-heavy team that lacked the quality depth that characterized their "strength in numbers" years, and with Durant out, the load fell on Curry, and he produced. Klay getting hurt in the finals in addition to Durant was just too much to overcome. If Klay didn't tear his ACL in game 6 -- they were up five with 2:22 to go when Klay went out -- it likely goes to a game 7 where they would've had a decent shot. But because they didn't win the title, that PS run by Curry doesn't get the recognition it deserves.

The PS contenders for me:

2015 - 28.3 pts, 5.0 reb, 6.4 ast, 1.9 stl, 3.9 tov, 60.7 TS%, .228 WS/48
2017 - 28.1 pts, 6.2 reb, 6.7 ast, 2.0 stl, 3.4 tov, 65.9 TS%, .272 WS/48
2019 - 28.2 pts, 6.0 reb, 5.7 ast, 1.1 stl, 3.0 tov, 62.0 TS%, .185 WS/48
2022 - 27.4 pts, 5.2 reb, 5.9 ast, 1.3 stl, 2.6 tov, 60.6 TS%, .203 WS/48

Of course, that's just the box score stats, and there's more to assessing overall play beyond that.

So I'm up in the air about which year was his peak.

Which is where a lot of people are with Curry. 2015-16 was a transcendent RS, clearly his best, but his knee injury in the first game of the PS robbed us of what could have been an all-time great overall season, RS plus PS. He has always been a decent defender during the Warriors run under Kerr, but he is definitely better now. He is stronger than ever, which he uses to his benefit both on offense and defense. He's gotten smarter and more experienced with each season, which benefits his play and his team in subtle ways. The fact is that Curry has been a consistently stellar player for so long that it's difficult to pick a single season.

[Cavsfansince84]

Weird how 2016 is winning this poll but people keep voting for 2017 in the peaks project. Confirms my suspicion that people want a curry season up high but know 2016 playoffs keep it from happening so they default to 2017. I picked 2016 because 2017 was too easy and he was still scary in 2016 while struggling. The run up through the OKC double bang game might be top 3 ever.

I agree its sort of shoehorned in simply because its his best playoffs(unless you prefer 2022).

[DraymondGold]

Happy to discuss more, but thought I'd start by pasting some of the Greatest Peaks posts on the topic.

In short:
-Pros as he got older after 2016: a) better postseason health, b) better resilience (e.g. defense, decision making, dribbling, lower turnover, more accurate passing), c) better scalability (better balance of fitting as a ceiling raiser on super teams).
-Cons as he got older after 2016: a) some decline in athleticism (particularly speed/burst), b) some decline from 2015/2016 shooting (though he returned to that shooting form at times in 2017 and in 2021, and was still GOAT-tier shooter in other years), c) some decline in strategic advantage relative to the league (other teams and other stars started shooting more 3s after him)

Longer answer: What improvements did he make after 2016?
I certainly see the arguments for 2016 Curry. If he had a healthy playoffs (or if you only care about players' chances of getting injured in a season, rather than whether they actually got injured or not), I could see 2016 Curry > 2017 Curry. Still, I'd argue he actually improved skill-wise from 2016 to 2017 (and onward). Here are the changes I see from 2016 to 2017:
1. Postseason health: people mention this of course. If you take a more probabilistic approach to injury (e.g. partially docking every season based on perceived chance of injury, rather than fully docking injured seasons and not docking healthy seasons), I could definitely see you taking 2016 > 2017. I think it's hard to estimate injury probabilities though, and since this is a 1 year peak project, I just go with the simple route: 2017 was healthy, so he doesn't get docked! If we're just looking at skill improvements, I think 2017 was slightly better at pacing himself through the regular season (a la 2013 LeBron vs 2009, 1977 Kareem vs 1972/71), which helped him improve his chances of being fresh and healthy in the postseason.
2. Improved resilience: increased weight and strength allows for better defense and better ability to take contact on and off ball. Slightly improved decision making allows for slightly fewer boneheaded turnovers and more consistent (but less flashy) passes / shot selection (Athletic Alchemy mentioned he noticed this in his film study at some point ~2017). Slightly tighter handle (which would continue to improve and show noticeable results by 2022).
3. Improved scalability: I have Curry as the GOAT portable/scalable player, and he's certainly still all-time scalable in 2016. However, the actual act of adjusting to Durant forced Curry to improve even more without the ball and be even more efficient with his on ball usage.

I think I also have fewer concerns with the 2017 regular season: I see 2017 regular season Curry as just as good as 2016 regular season Curry, though definitely less valuable. By good, his actual goodness as a player (irrespective of team context); value is more context-dependent.

Why did he seem to lose value in the 2017 Regular Season?
Unlike any other player in the top... 20 peaks? 30 peaks?... Curry had an all-time player join his team during his 2ish-year peak. Do people really not expect there to be an adjustment period? I've provided in-depth statistical evidence and film evidence that showed that Curry was just as good a player in 2017 Regular season. He just lost value. Why? He intentionally took (too much of) a step back to prioritize making KD comfortable. Curry and numerous Warriors players have confirmed this interviews. This shows a kind of Cultural Leadership advantage makes me more willing to give a pass for 2017 than intentional coasting, but that's just me.
Evidence that 2017 Regular Season Curry was just as good of a player as 2016 Regular Season Curry (just with a slump from taking a step back to help KD) here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100321960#p100321960 and here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100359184#p100359184

What about 21/22?
By 2021/2022, he had noticeably better defense, decision making, passing, handle, and resilience. I still take 2017 (and healthy 2016) because of his athleticism (specifically his speed/quickness) and his overall impact metrics. Like other people have said though, if the 2022 regular season ended up just being a cold spell (not an actual decline in shooting due to age/motor/athleticism/increased effort elsewhere), then 2021/2022 might also have an argument at his peak. But I'd need to see next year to see.

Connection to other players:
I think a larger question is how do you balance changing performances that differ in the regular season vs the postseason? Take LeBron: his regular season and postseason value all vary in 2009, 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2017 (his normal possible peak years). People prioritize regular season vs postseason, value within a context vs general goodness, etc. all in different ways. Of course, some years are generally more commonly considered a peak year than others, but it's always possible that if you change the criteria you might end up choosing a different year as a peak. I think the same discussion of criteria applies here.

[capfan33]

It seems like there is a lot of difference.

I have a hard time giving his Peak Year 2016 and 2017 considering who he was surrounded by. Having KD & Klay.

KD was not on the Warriors until 2016-17.

It's not take anything away from those years. They are great, but it's really difficult to tell just how good they were considering.

Actually, on/off data for the KD years shows that Curry had a significantly greater positive impact than Durant.

Since 2016-17, in the regular season and playoffs combined, Golden State is plus-1.3 points per 48 minutes with Durant on the floor and Curry off. It's plus-12.1 points per 48 minutes with Curry on the floor and Durant off. Both sample size are well over 2,000 minutes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andybailey/2019/05/12/stephen-curry-not-kevin-durant-is-the-golden-state-warriors-best-player/?sh=234fb5a37b23

Everyone with a brain knows Curry was the more impactful player and the driver of those teams, but it's still undeniable that it was a unique situation where Curry and his team were essentially playing the game on easy mode. And I think that's where the reservations are coming from, at least for me.

[Outside]

It seems like there is a lot of difference.

I have a hard time giving his Peak Year 2016 and 2017 considering who he was surrounded by. Having KD & Klay.

KD was not on the Warriors until 2016-17.

It's not take anything away from those years. They are great, but it's really difficult to tell just how good they were considering.

Actually, on/off data for the KD years shows that Curry had a significantly greater positive impact than Durant.

Since 2016-17, in the regular season and playoffs combined, Golden State is plus-1.3 points per 48 minutes with Durant on the floor and Curry off. It's plus-12.1 points per 48 minutes with Curry on the floor and Durant off. Both sample size are well over 2,000 minutes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andybailey/2019/05/12/stephen-curry-not-kevin-durant-is-the-golden-state-warriors-best-player/?sh=234fb5a37b23

Everyone with a brain knows Curry was the more impactful player and the driver of those teams, but it's still undeniable that it was a unique situation where Curry and his team were essentially playing the game on easy mode. And I think that's where the reservations are coming from, at least for me.

I can understand that. Another way to look at it is that the team with Durant, particularly the 2016-17 team, was the pinnacle of basketball, and while you can look at Curry’s performance then as "easy mode," it was Curry’s nature as arguably the most accommodating and complementary superstar ever that allowed the team to reach the highest level of excellence. That can be considered the foremost example of a player as a ceiling raiser, and I would argue that is something to be valued highly, even more than one of the many heliocentric carry jobs to a title that we've seen, including Curry’s performance this year in the finals.

[Jaivl]

2016, 2017 and 2021 are the clear contenders for me, I usually run with 2017.

[The-Power]

Curry is just a curious case as he has had a lot of regular season and playoff success, but there is not that one year in which everything fell perfectly into place like it did for a lot other players with the best peaks in NBA history.

2014-15
Very good RS, and very good PS. But he was clearly not yet at his peak in terms of ability (defense, resilience, decision-making, off-ball ability).

2015-16
GOAT-level RS, but subpar PS for him mostly due to lackluster Finals performance, and some injury issues.

2016-17
Very good RS but not at 2016 levels, and great PS. To me, it's not a knock that they steamrolled the league because that is insanely difficult to do even with a lot of talent and they were only the GOAT team because of Curry. But there was not this one ‘overcoming adversity’ series that often contributes to a player's peak case.

2017-18
Great RS but limited by injuries, and subpar PS due to coming back from injury mid-playoffs.

2018-19
Good but not great RS, very good but not consistently great PS.

2020-21
Arguably his second best RS, but unfortunately missed the PS as the 8th seed due to the inaugural play-in tournament. Has an argument for peak-ability season but it cannot be his overall peak without a playoff run to back it up imo.

2021-22
Subpar RS by his standards due to injuries and a shooting slump (though still great impact), one of his best PS with an incredible legacy-defining Finals series.

Combine 2016 RS with 2017 PS, or 2021 RS with 2022 PS and you'd get into the GOAT-range in terms of peak. I think the 2016-2017 mix would have had GOAT production but the 2021-2022 would have been at the apex in terms of resilience. But alas, these seasons cannot be combined for a one-year peak. I'd probably pick 2017 as Curry's peak all things considered, although I'm not convinced that he wasn't an even better player in 2021 (I think it's tougher to make this argument for 2022 with a slight decline physically although it's possible especially when your main concern is playoff resilience).

He's not likely to have a peak season next year due to load management and him likely losing a bit more athletically as he'll be another year older – but I still have a tiny bit of hope that he'll combine the 2021 RS with the 2022 PS (even if it does not end in a title this time), which would arguably make it peak Curry. That would, of course, be entirely unprecedented at his age but one can dream as a Warriors and Curry fan haha.

[Colbinii]

His career is shaping up like LeBrons where he doesnt have a standard or set-in-stone Peak.

[Onus]

I don't understand how the Durant years can be considered easy mode yet Shaq and Kobe's team can be considered comparable and some may even pick them, but shaq and kobe don't get docked for being on easy mode as well?

[Dutchball97]

Why would anyone have 2021? It wasn't his best regular season and the Warriors didn't even make the play-offs.

[Cavsfansince84]

I don't understand how the Durant years can be considered easy mode yet Shaq and Kobe's team can be considered comparable and some may even pick them, but shaq and kobe don't get docked for being on easy mode as well?

Mainly because Shaq and Kobe weren't being complimented with a dpoy and an all time great 3 pt shooter who is also a solid defender. I agree though that its something worth mentioning.

[SickMother]

I don't understand how the Durant years can be considered easy mode yet Shaq and Kobe's team can be considered comparable and some may even pick them, but shaq and kobe don't get docked for being on easy mode as well?

There's two things at play, the nature of how KD joined an already elite GSW team is always going to be a factor & then KD/Curry were much more 1A/1B than Shaq/Kobe were. Three year splits for regular season & playoffs...

Durant: 25.8 rPER | .640 rTS% | 33.9 rWS | .229 rWS/48 | 7.1 rBPM | +9.3 rO/O
Durant: 26.2 pPER | .642 pTS% | 9.0 pWS | .242 pWS/48 | 8.3 pBPM | +8.7 pO/O

Curry: 25.4 rPER | .643 rTS% | 31.3 rWS | .228 rWS/48 | 7.0 rBPM | +15.6 rO/O
Curry: 23.8 pPER | .623 pTS% | 8.8 pWS | .210 pWS/48 | 7.1 pBPM | +12.3 pO/O

Shaq: 30.2 rPER | .580 rTS% | 46.8 rWS | .264 rWS/48 | 8.4 rBPM | +12.2 rO/O
Shaq: 29.3 pPER | .562 pTS% | 12.1 pWS | .238 pWS/48 | 7.5 pBPM | +16.5 pO/O

Kobe: 23.2 rPER | .547 rTS% | 34.7 rWS | .199 rWS/48 | 4.8 rBPM | +3.7 rO/O
Kobe: 21.3 pPER | .527 pTS% | 8.4 pWS | .167 pWS/48 | 4.9 pBPM | +4.7 pO/O

[capfan33]

I don't understand how the Durant years can be considered easy mode yet Shaq and Kobe's team can be considered comparable and some may even pick them, but shaq and kobe don't get docked for being on easy mode as well?

Lmao there's very few situations that are remotely comparable to the Warriors with KD and I'm not sure why you would pick Shaq-Kobe's Lakers specifically. They were a pretty top-heavy team with a good but not great supporting cast around them, not the greatest defender of his generation and arguably the 2nd greatest shooter ever spearheading the cast.

I think the closest analogy I can think of to the KD Warriors is probably the 80s Celtics/Lakers or maybe the 69 Lakers in theory, but even those teams don't come close to matching the absurd foursome that the Warriors had.

[parsnips33]

Why would anyone have 2021? It wasn't his best regular season and the Warriors didn't even make the play-offs.

Because he was much better controlling the ball/offense and defensively than 2016. Less able to blow by guys off the dribble, but had added so much to his off-ball game at that point that he was arguably a more dangerous scorer off versatility alone

And yeah they missed the playoffs, but in any year before 2021 they would have got in as an 8th seed

[Warriors Analyst]

Why would anyone have 2021? It wasn't his best regular season and the Warriors didn't even make the play-offs.

The Warriors were on sixth seed pace with Curry healthy. They went 1-8 in the games he missed. It is what it is.

After Steph came back from the bruised (fractured) tailbone, he averaged... 36.9 points a game on 49/44/90 shooting splits with 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists a game to end the season. Steph was shooting 14.8 threes during that stretch. On top of that, the Warriors went on a 15-5 run to end the season with a rotation of Steph/Bazemore/Wiggins/Green/Looney and a three-man bench of Poole, Mychal Mulder, and Juan Toscano-Anderson. I think it's hard to understand just how impressive Steph was during that stretch unless you were watching the games and watching him drag a lottery-level supporting cast out of the bottom half of the western conference standings.

In that final stretch of the season, Steph and the Warriors beat the 76ers on the road (49 points on 10/17 shooting from deep for Steph), the Nuggets before the ACL tear to Murray (32/8/3 for Steph on 11/18 shooting), the #1 seed Jazz (36 points for Steph), the Phoenix Suns, and Memphis Grizzlies (46 points, 7 boards, and 9 assists). There was also a 47-point game in a close loss to the Celtics on the road where JTA, who'd been a key part of the rotation, got concussed chasing after a loose ball. During that stretch, Steph had 6 games with 10+ made threes. That's more threes than the next closest player with 10+ threes made in a game, Klay Thompson, who only has 5 such games.

Two of the players in that Warriors' late-season rotation, Bazemore and Mulder, were either in the G-League last season or getting consistent DNP's. JTA played only 60-ish games this past season, many of which were mostly garbage time minutes. Objectively, it was pretty crazy to watch Steph lay waste to quality opponents with an objectively bad team around him. Mind you, that team played over its head because they played in total deference to Steph/Dray's two-man game, but it was still crazy to watch.

I don't think I'd take the 2020-21 version of Steph over peak 2016 Steph, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't have to give it some consideration. I am inclined to think that the 2020-21 version of Steph dropped into the 2016 Finals and with the same MCL recovery would actually figure out how to beat the Cavs.