Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #11 - 2016-17 Stephen Curry

[MyUniBroDavis]

That giannis haa defensive impact metrics not too far off garnett in a era you consider much more unforgiving to defensive bigs doesnt give you some doubt about whether garnett really would have more defensive impact than giannis today?

I mean for all garnett is ideally built for today game he -still- would be playing a era less ideal for him (defensively). No matter how we slice it even for the likes of russel, garnett and hakeem it would harser to defend in the modern spacing era

Is almost impossible that garnett absolute defensive impavt today wouldnt drop, and giannis already looks close to him in defensive impact per stuff like regular season defense (the 19 and 20 bucks being close to garnett 08 celtics) and has monster impact in defense

This is with the agreement is tougher to anchor a defense now than before for a big man (data taken from unibrodavis posts)


2020 bucks
G 99.6 in 2020 (-7.9 net) (110.6 league avg)

1999 Spurs
David Robinson 92.0 (-2.4) (102.2 league avg)

2004 pistons
Wallace 94.8 (-2.0 net) (102.9 league avg)

2004 Spurs
Duncan 92.1 (-5.4 net) (102.9 league abg)

2005 Spurs
Duncan 94.5 (-8.9 net) (106.1 league avg)

2008 Celtics
Garnett 97.3 (-4.1 net) (107.5 league avg)

2014 pacers
Hibbert 98.9 (-2.9 net) (106.7 league avg)

Or

Regular defensive RAPM
2019 Giannis ranked 2nd behind PG
2020 Giannis ranks 1st by a lot

Regular luck adjusted defensive RAPM
2019 Giannis ranked 1st by a lot
2020 Giannis ranks 1st by a lot

Or

2019 -7.1 playoff league avg def rtg
2020 -2.8 playoff league avg def rtg
2021 -6.7 playoff league avg def rtg
2022 -7.4 playoff league avg def rtg

Not really sure what to say with the first set of data, glad you followed it up with the other samples.

With the RAPM & DRtg data, I see that you're focusing on the defensive RAPM of Giannis in 2019 & 2020, but leaning on 2021 & 2022 to make it look like there's a consistent trend of the Bucks having a comparably effective defense in the playoffs.

You're doing this because Giannis and the Bucks' best defensive regular season was also the year they got torched in the playoffs by the Miami Heat.

This is something in some ways really parallels the peak season debate with Curry, and so I kinda empathize here, but that also means I feel like you need to answer the questions analogous to those I've given my assessment on pertaining to Curry.

So:

What do you think happened to the Bucks against the Heat?
What do you think they changed in their approach after that (if anything)?
Do you think they've gotten better after that?
Why haven't they been able to be more than a middling (RS) defense after that?

I’d like to note the bucks were weird with playoff adjustments and REALLY refused to not run drop in the playoffs (which isn’t a giannis thing anyways). I’m not as sure with 2021 although I’d assume so, but in know 2022 they were running a lot of pick and roll coverages in the RS rather than just auto dropping, THATS not neccessarily the best thing to do in the RS but it means you’re prepared to do so in the playoffs (Miami does this too).

With giannis I think it’s more so his defensive data in 2019 is really good, in 2020 it’s historically good relative to his peers (I think it might be the best ever? Not sure though). We also see a decent sample of the team without him, although not definitive in any sense they were a bit better than league average in the 20 games he missed 2019 and 2020 (I think 16 of those games were with their guys there).

His defensive impact drops with the bucks defense the next two years, and while in 2022 they deployed him more involved as the roll man defender rather than as a helpside guy, which he wasn’t bad at at all but it’s not taking advantage of his talents, the defense boosts up in the playoffs and at least net rtg data stuff really point at him being the reason why on their main rotation

Otoh, his tracking data looks closer to 2019 than 2020, tracking data has faults though, but I do think if the assumption is giannis steps it up in the playoffs, and while I do think there are other factors at play the bucks defense clearly isn’t reflected by their regular season, then if you err on the side that he’s his 2020 self (an oversimplification) then he should be a tier 1A defender

On Green, I feel green is underrated for his playoff defense, but I generally have IQ and versatility as being more important on defense in the playoffs, and I think Green has the best defensive iq in nba history by quite a bit (russell better relatively speaking but that’s pretty much it). So as high as I am on giannis I’m not against draymond being a better defender in the situations they are in, quarterback draymond hits different.

I think 2019 and 2020 are relevant in the sense of, if you take the position that Giannis took off RS defensively (relatively speaking) in 2021 and 2022 those two years demonstrate what he is capable of. Otoh, the bucks being a middling RS defense while clearly being a hyper elite one come playoff time, at least over the 35 games in 2021 + 2022, with giannis’s stuff looking really good, is also important to consider

I’m not 100% convinced he’s as good as his 2020 self, there’s an argument for both sides or even beyond but if I thought he was I probably throw him in as a top 5 peak, but I’m pretty content with him being a strong DPOY caliber defender

On gobert, I feel the “Gobert exposed” narrative is overrated but I do think there are teams and ways to plan around him in the playoffs more easily because stuff is more targetted there

[falcolombardi]

That giannis haa defensive impact metrics not too far off garnett in a era you consider much more unforgiving to defensive bigs doesnt give you some doubt about whether garnett really would have more defensive impact than giannis today?

I mean for all garnett is ideally built for today game he -still- would be playing a era less ideal for him (defensively). No matter how we slice it even for the likes of russel, garnett and hakeem it would harser to defend in the modern spacing era

Is almost impossible that garnett absolute defensive impavt today wouldnt drop, and giannis already looks close to him in defensive impact per stuff like regular season defense (the 19 and 20 bucks being close to garnett 08 celtics) and has monster impact in defense

This is with the agreement is tougher to anchor a defense now than before for a big man (data taken from unibrodavis posts)


2020 bucks
G 99.6 in 2020 (-7.9 net) (110.6 league avg)

1999 Spurs
David Robinson 92.0 (-2.4) (102.2 league avg)

2004 pistons
Wallace 94.8 (-2.0 net) (102.9 league avg)

2004 Spurs
Duncan 92.1 (-5.4 net) (102.9 league abg)

2005 Spurs
Duncan 94.5 (-8.9 net) (106.1 league avg)

2008 Celtics
Garnett 97.3 (-4.1 net) (107.5 league avg)

2014 pacers
Hibbert 98.9 (-2.9 net) (106.7 league avg)

Or

Regular defensive RAPM
2019 Giannis ranked 2nd behind PG
2020 Giannis ranks 1st by a lot

Regular luck adjusted defensive RAPM
2019 Giannis ranked 1st by a lot
2020 Giannis ranks 1st by a lot

Or

2019 -7.1 playoff league avg def rtg
2020 -2.8 playoff league avg def rtg
2021 -6.7 playoff league avg def rtg
2022 -7.4 playoff league avg def rtg

Not really sure what to say with the first set of data, glad you followed it up with the other samples.

With the RAPM & DRtg data, I see that you're focusing on the defensive RAPM of Giannis in 2019 & 2020, but leaning on 2021 & 2022 to make it look like there's a consistent trend of the Bucks having a comparably effective defense in the playoffs.

You're doing this because Giannis and the Bucks' best defensive regular season was also the year they got torched in the playoffs by the Miami Heat.

This is something in some ways really parallels the peak season debate with Curry, and so I kinda empathize here, but that also means I feel like you need to answer the questions analogous to those I've given my assessment on pertaining to Curry.

So:

What do you think happened to the Bucks against the Heat?
What do you think they changed in their approach after that (if anything)?
Do you think they've gotten better after that?
Why haven't they been able to be more than a middling (RS) defense after that?

I’d like to note the bucks were weird with playoff adjustments and REALLY refused to not run drop in the playoffs (which isn’t a giannis thing anyways). I’m not as sure with 2021 although I’d assume so, but in know 2022 they were running a lot of pick and roll coverages in the RS rather than just auto dropping, THATS not neccessarily the best thing to do in the RS but it means you’re prepared to do so in the playoffs (Miami does this too).

With giannis I think it’s more so his defensive data in 2019 is really good, in 2020 it’s historically good relative to his peers (I think it might be the best ever? Not sure though). We also see a decent sample of the team without him, although not definitive in any sense they were a bit better than league average in the 20 games he missed 2019 and 2020 (I think 16 of those games were with their guys there).

His defensive impact drops with the bucks defense the next two years, and while in 2022 they deployed him more involved as the roll man defender rather than as a helpside guy, which he wasn’t bad at at all but it’s not taking advantage of his talents, the defense boosts up in the playoffs and at least net rtg data stuff really point at him being the reason why on their main rotation

Otoh, his tracking data looks closer to 2019 than 2020, tracking data has faults though, but I do think if the assumption is giannis steps it up in the playoffs, and while I do think there are other factors at play the bucks defense clearly isn’t reflected by their regular season, then if you err on the side that he’s his 2020 self (an oversimplification) then he should be a tier 1A defender

On Green, I feel green is underrated for his playoff defense, but I generally have IQ and versatility as being more important on defense in the playoffs, and I think Green has the best defensive iq in nba history by quite a bit (russell better relatively speaking but that’s pretty much it). So as high as I am on giannis I’m not against draymond being a better defender in the situations they are in, quarterback draymond hits different.

I honestly feel like nitpicking giannis amd bucks defense over 2020 playoffs is like nitpicking curry and warriors offense over 2016 playoffs

And while i dont necesarrily disagree with green being a better playoffs defender than giannis

The bucks actually have a better defensive run in 19-22 (both regular season amd playoffs) than warriors did in 15-19 and is not like green didnt play with great defensive talent too

[MyUniBroDavis]

Not really sure what to say with the first set of data, glad you followed it up with the other samples.

With the RAPM & DRtg data, I see that you're focusing on the defensive RAPM of Giannis in 2019 & 2020, but leaning on 2021 & 2022 to make it look like there's a consistent trend of the Bucks having a comparably effective defense in the playoffs.

You're doing this because Giannis and the Bucks' best defensive regular season was also the year they got torched in the playoffs by the Miami Heat.

This is something in some ways really parallels the peak season debate with Curry, and so I kinda empathize here, but that also means I feel like you need to answer the questions analogous to those I've given my assessment on pertaining to Curry.

So:

What do you think happened to the Bucks against the Heat?
What do you think they changed in their approach after that (if anything)?
Do you think they've gotten better after that?
Why haven't they been able to be more than a middling (RS) defense after that?

I’d like to note the bucks were weird with playoff adjustments and REALLY refused to not run drop in the playoffs (which isn’t a giannis thing anyways). I’m not as sure with 2021 although I’d assume so, but in know 2022 they were running a lot of pick and roll coverages in the RS rather than just auto dropping, THATS not neccessarily the best thing to do in the RS but it means you’re prepared to do so in the playoffs (Miami does this too).

With giannis I think it’s more so his defensive data in 2019 is really good, in 2020 it’s historically good relative to his peers (I think it might be the best ever? Not sure though). We also see a decent sample of the team without him, although not definitive in any sense they were a bit better than league average in the 20 games he missed 2019 and 2020 (I think 16 of those games were with their guys there).

His defensive impact drops with the bucks defense the next two years, and while in 2022 they deployed him more involved as the roll man defender rather than as a helpside guy, which he wasn’t bad at at all but it’s not taking advantage of his talents, the defense boosts up in the playoffs and at least net rtg data stuff really point at him being the reason why on their main rotation

Otoh, his tracking data looks closer to 2019 than 2020, tracking data has faults though, but I do think if the assumption is giannis steps it up in the playoffs, and while I do think there are other factors at play the bucks defense clearly isn’t reflected by their regular season, then if you err on the side that he’s his 2020 self (an oversimplification) then he should be a tier 1A defender

On Green, I feel green is underrated for his playoff defense, but I generally have IQ and versatility as being more important on defense in the playoffs, and I think Green has the best defensive iq in nba history by quite a bit (russell better relatively speaking but that’s pretty much it). So as high as I am on giannis I’m not against draymond being a better defender in the situations they are in, quarterback draymond hits different.

I honestly feel like nitpicking giannis amd bucks defense over 2020 playoffs is like nitpicking curry and warriors offense over 2016 playoffs

I think the bucks did have some issues with their lack of adjustments and I think they took untill giannis got hurt to make some adjustments (I can’t remember if it was on defense or on offense).

In any case giannis much more the type to follow the gameplan then be like “imma guard this guy coach” which might be a negative to some but it’s a whatever for me tbh

[falcolombardi]

I’d like to note the bucks were weird with playoff adjustments and REALLY refused to not run drop in the playoffs (which isn’t a giannis thing anyways). I’m not as sure with 2021 although I’d assume so, but in know 2022 they were running a lot of pick and roll coverages in the RS rather than just auto dropping, THATS not neccessarily the best thing to do in the RS but it means you’re prepared to do so in the playoffs (Miami does this too).

With giannis I think it’s more so his defensive data in 2019 is really good, in 2020 it’s historically good relative to his peers (I think it might be the best ever? Not sure though). We also see a decent sample of the team without him, although not definitive in any sense they were a bit better than league average in the 20 games he missed 2019 and 2020 (I think 16 of those games were with their guys there).

His defensive impact drops with the bucks defense the next two years, and while in 2022 they deployed him more involved as the roll man defender rather than as a helpside guy, which he wasn’t bad at at all but it’s not taking advantage of his talents, the defense boosts up in the playoffs and at least net rtg data stuff really point at him being the reason why on their main rotation

Otoh, his tracking data looks closer to 2019 than 2020, tracking data has faults though, but I do think if the assumption is giannis steps it up in the playoffs, and while I do think there are other factors at play the bucks defense clearly isn’t reflected by their regular season, then if you err on the side that he’s his 2020 self (an oversimplification) then he should be a tier 1A defender

On Green, I feel green is underrated for his playoff defense, but I generally have IQ and versatility as being more important on defense in the playoffs, and I think Green has the best defensive iq in nba history by quite a bit (russell better relatively speaking but that’s pretty much it). So as high as I am on giannis I’m not against draymond being a better defender in the situations they are in, quarterback draymond hits different.

I honestly feel like nitpicking giannis amd bucks defense over 2020 playoffs is like nitpicking curry and warriors offense over 2016 playoffs

I think the bucks did have some issues with their lack of adjustments and I think they took untill giannis got hurt to make some adjustments (I can’t remember if it was on defense or on offense).

In any case giannis much more the type to follow the gameplan then be like “imma guard this guy coach” which might be a negative to some but it’s a whatever for me tbh

I dont disagree, but we could say the same about warriors and curry in 2016, cavs found weak points of their offense (such as ignoring weak shooters and constant prrssure curry) and warriors didnt know how to counter back

(Imo it had a lot to do with a mobile big wing and a mobile small big like lebron and thompson being ideally suited to defend a smaller team like warriors inside and outside)

Just like i think bucks struggles in 2020 vs heat can be explained by a hot shooting team taking advantage of their tactical rigidity

Both 16 curry and warriors offense and 20 giannis and bucks defense were historically good offenses and defense that got rivals well prepared to exploit and expose their weak points

Both of which arguably got fixed next seasons (although durant joining kinda made warriors and curry fixing them ppintless for a while lol)

We shouldnt let those single bad series define giannis defense or curry offense top much

[capfan33]

It's not possible, because 2013 James is already in

Should have said 3 point revolution onwards lol, I def count 2013 bron as before that. Honestly I’m really not high on 2013 lebron at all, I’m in a minority on this but I don’t think of it as a top 5 lebron season

Saw this strand of the last thread and wanted to continue the conversation.

Obviously, I've taken a stand from the first thread in the project and then made other statements that are pushing people toward taking current players more seriously, so my perspective - or "bias" if you'd rather call it that - right now is pretty clear.

I'll add further that the fact that the only current player to get voted in so far, specifically got voted in for a year that occurred before the most dramatic shift in play is an interesting wrinkle here. "We'll take modern players seriously, just so long as we can pick a year from before modern tactics."

But let me say two things that are not so antagonistic:

1. I think it's often a challenge to know how to stack up current players with older players, and it's understandable if the general response is one we could call "conservative". Putting a current player in a position we might later consider "too high" is something we all would like to avoid, and would like to avoid more than a mistake in the opposite direction. We don't want to be prisoner's of the moment we're in.

2. The paradigm shift that has occurred is leaving everything in particular flux. When we did this project in 2012 (which I think was the first of these, but if someone remembers one from further back, please say something), it was no surprise that MJ & Shaq would be 1 & 2. They'd generally been considered the two top modern peaks for more than a decade at that point - Shaq's peak was recognized as a rival to MJ's while it was happening. Yes there was a cross-era debate between those two and Russell & Wilt (who got the 3rd & 4th spot respectively), but while we talked about how the game had changed between the eras, we were still largely thinking about the 3-point shot being of minor consequence in the grand scheme of things.

And now we know that doesn't work any more. Since that time, recognizing we're in the midst of the largest revolution in the sport since the coming and consequences of the big man, it's made it much less clear how we should approach cross-era comparisons, and it's really highlighted a difference between two criteria that previously seemed largely the same: a) adjusting for era by a general sense of era quality, and b) adjusting for era primarily through projecting players across era.

All this to say: While I might look like I'm wagging my finger at people saying "You're doing it all wrong silly!", truly, what we're trying to do is tough, and I understand people taking a different approach than myself. Heck, I always reserve the right to change my approach over time myself.

To me the most important thing right now is that people are recognizing the conundrum and grabbling with the implications earnestly.

For me personally I have a hard time ranking players from the last 10ish years because of how goofy offensive numbers have become and also because I do think it's a bit hard putting things in their proper historical context so close to when they happened. Curry is a notable exception to this, but for Giannis and Jokic specifically I find it hard to rank them. And I do think being an outlier in the current globalized state of the game is impressive in a way that needs to be accounted for in some manner.

I'm also pleasantly surprised that we've already had so much discussion around era and how that's affecting our view of certain players. I think that when you take this whole player analysis thing to it's logical conclusion you have to seriously stop and think about the evolution the game has undergone and how that has affected players. It's no different than how the quality of a player's teammates, coaching, front office and injury luck affect their careers, era is clearly a significant factor.

And yes, we can't perfectly account for era, but that's true of player evaluation generally, it's an imperfect exercise. I'm not going to pretend that my player rankings, which do take into account era, are even half as accurate as I would hope for them to be. Really more than anything else I'm trying to be mindful of the significance that era has. Like most things in life, it's about the process not the result and I'm glad more poeple are engaging in the process in such a productive manner.

[falcolombardi]

The more i discuss giannis the more i feel line switching my picks

Gonna change them

1-george mikan 1950 (1951, 1949)
2- giannis antetokoumpo 2021 (2019)
3- Stephen curry 2015 (2017, 2019)

HM

4- Kevin garnett 2004 (2008)

[capfan33]

So obviously lack of highly rated modern players in lists such as this or the Top 100 Players Project is beginning to stand out. For example in this list, there are multiple seasons from the 60s, 80s, 90s, and early 2000s in the top 10 including a 17 year stretch from 86 to 2003 that apparently has 6 of the top 10 seasons of all time. Yet there's only one season from the last 19 years in the top 10 and that was LeBron's 2013 season which happened almost a decade ago. I simply find it hard to believe that players are now peaking lower given the greatly increased 3 point shooting skills and the larger talent pool of international prospects.

One area of bias that I've noticed is that a lot of thought is given to how older players would be able to adapt to and dominate the modern game. But very little thought is given to how modern players would essentially break older eras. For example, watching the late 90s Bulls, one thing that immediately stands out is that opposing teams were forced to guard Rodman standing on the 3 point line due to the illegal defense rules. If Steph Curry were playing in the 90s, he would never see the type of defense that the Cavs used to contain him in the 2016 finals by helping off of Harrison Barnes every single play. Who knows what kind of mind-boggling numbers Curry would be able to put up if he were operating with as much space as Jordan or Pippen were on those Bulls teams.

For me when it comes to these time-machine arguments I'm not straight transporting a player to or back from an era, I'm assuming they were born x number of years earlier or later and grew up with the training standards/information of that era. Modern players in the 60s would only be able to break the game if they had the unfair advantage of having grown up 40 years later with 40 years of advancements in the game, medicine, etc. But that doesn't make any sense. At the end of the day when it comes to the time machine argument, the 3 basic ingredients that need to be considered is a players raw skill/talent, work ethic/desire, and luck, independent of outside factors like when they were born.

[capfan33]

Not really sure what to say with the first set of data, glad you followed it up with the other samples.

With the RAPM & DRtg data, I see that you're focusing on the defensive RAPM of Giannis in 2019 & 2020, but leaning on 2021 & 2022 to make it look like there's a consistent trend of the Bucks having a comparably effective defense in the playoffs.

You're doing this because Giannis and the Bucks' best defensive regular season was also the year they got torched in the playoffs by the Miami Heat.

This is something in some ways really parallels the peak season debate with Curry, and so I kinda empathize here, but that also means I feel like you need to answer the questions analogous to those I've given my assessment on pertaining to Curry.

So:

What do you think happened to the Bucks against the Heat?
What do you think they changed in their approach after that (if anything)?
Do you think they've gotten better after that?
Why haven't they been able to be more than a middling (RS) defense after that?

I’d like to note the bucks were weird with playoff adjustments and REALLY refused to not run drop in the playoffs (which isn’t a giannis thing anyways). I’m not as sure with 2021 although I’d assume so, but in know 2022 they were running a lot of pick and roll coverages in the RS rather than just auto dropping, THATS not neccessarily the best thing to do in the RS but it means you’re prepared to do so in the playoffs (Miami does this too).

With giannis I think it’s more so his defensive data in 2019 is really good, in 2020 it’s historically good relative to his peers (I think it might be the best ever? Not sure though). We also see a decent sample of the team without him, although not definitive in any sense they were a bit better than league average in the 20 games he missed 2019 and 2020 (I think 16 of those games were with their guys there).

His defensive impact drops with the bucks defense the next two years, and while in 2022 they deployed him more involved as the roll man defender rather than as a helpside guy, which he wasn’t bad at at all but it’s not taking advantage of his talents, the defense boosts up in the playoffs and at least net rtg data stuff really point at him being the reason why on their main rotation

Otoh, his tracking data looks closer to 2019 than 2020, tracking data has faults though, but I do think if the assumption is giannis steps it up in the playoffs, and while I do think there are other factors at play the bucks defense clearly isn’t reflected by their regular season, then if you err on the side that he’s his 2020 self (an oversimplification) then he should be a tier 1A defender

On Green, I feel green is underrated for his playoff defense, but I generally have IQ and versatility as being more important on defense in the playoffs, and I think Green has the best defensive iq in nba history by quite a bit (russell better relatively speaking but that’s pretty much it). So as high as I am on giannis I’m not against draymond being a better defender in the situations they are in, quarterback draymond hits different.

I honestly feel like nitpicking giannis amd bucks defense over 2020 playoffs is like nitpicking curry and warriors offense over 2016 playoffs

And while i dont necesarrily disagree with green being a better playoffs defender than giannis

The bucks actually have a better defensive run in 19-22 (both regular season amd playoffs) than warriors did in 15-19 and is not like green didnt play with great defensive talent too

I'm curious if any of you guys have thought's on this, but it seems to me that Giannis has had ridiculously well-constructed teams around him for the past few years and perhaps that's made him look better on both sides of the ball than the average ATG.

Of course, most of these guys were discussing have played on stacked teams but what generally has stood out to me in my limited study of Giannis is how good the rosters around Giannis have been, and moreover how well those casts have complemented his specific skillset. Just a thought.

[falcolombardi]

I’d like to note the bucks were weird with playoff adjustments and REALLY refused to not run drop in the playoffs (which isn’t a giannis thing anyways). I’m not as sure with 2021 although I’d assume so, but in know 2022 they were running a lot of pick and roll coverages in the RS rather than just auto dropping, THATS not neccessarily the best thing to do in the RS but it means you’re prepared to do so in the playoffs (Miami does this too).

With giannis I think it’s more so his defensive data in 2019 is really good, in 2020 it’s historically good relative to his peers (I think it might be the best ever? Not sure though). We also see a decent sample of the team without him, although not definitive in any sense they were a bit better than league average in the 20 games he missed 2019 and 2020 (I think 16 of those games were with their guys there).

His defensive impact drops with the bucks defense the next two years, and while in 2022 they deployed him more involved as the roll man defender rather than as a helpside guy, which he wasn’t bad at at all but it’s not taking advantage of his talents, the defense boosts up in the playoffs and at least net rtg data stuff really point at him being the reason why on their main rotation

Otoh, his tracking data looks closer to 2019 than 2020, tracking data has faults though, but I do think if the assumption is giannis steps it up in the playoffs, and while I do think there are other factors at play the bucks defense clearly isn’t reflected by their regular season, then if you err on the side that he’s his 2020 self (an oversimplification) then he should be a tier 1A defender

On Green, I feel green is underrated for his playoff defense, but I generally have IQ and versatility as being more important on defense in the playoffs, and I think Green has the best defensive iq in nba history by quite a bit (russell better relatively speaking but that’s pretty much it). So as high as I am on giannis I’m not against draymond being a better defender in the situations they are in, quarterback draymond hits different.

I honestly feel like nitpicking giannis amd bucks defense over 2020 playoffs is like nitpicking curry and warriors offense over 2016 playoffs

And while i dont necesarrily disagree with green being a better playoffs defender than giannis

The bucks actually have a better defensive run in 19-22 (both regular season amd playoffs) than warriors did in 15-19 and is not like green didnt play with great defensive talent too

I'm curious if any of you guys have thought's on this, but it seems to me that Giannis has had ridiculously well-constructed teams around him for the past few years and perhaps that's made him look better on both sides of the ball than the average ATG.

Of course, most of these guys were discussing have played on stacked teams but what generally has stood out to me in my limited study of Giannis is how good the rosters around Giannis have been, and moreover how well those casts have complemented his specific skillset. Just a thought.

Not as good or complementary as curry ones in 17 and 18 tho

and imo not better than curry ones in 15 and 22. Green is a better player than an average of jrue/bledsoe and klay comparable to middleton with iggy~brook

Regardless i am comparing defwnsive casts around green and giannis

All thinghs being equal i think giannis defense cast may be a equal to a bit better than draymond but green doesnt havr to worry about leading the offense

[MyUniBroDavis]

I’d like to note the bucks were weird with playoff adjustments and REALLY refused to not run drop in the playoffs (which isn’t a giannis thing anyways). I’m not as sure with 2021 although I’d assume so, but in know 2022 they were running a lot of pick and roll coverages in the RS rather than just auto dropping, THATS not neccessarily the best thing to do in the RS but it means you’re prepared to do so in the playoffs (Miami does this too).

With giannis I think it’s more so his defensive data in 2019 is really good, in 2020 it’s historically good relative to his peers (I think it might be the best ever? Not sure though). We also see a decent sample of the team without him, although not definitive in any sense they were a bit better than league average in the 20 games he missed 2019 and 2020 (I think 16 of those games were with their guys there).

His defensive impact drops with the bucks defense the next two years, and while in 2022 they deployed him more involved as the roll man defender rather than as a helpside guy, which he wasn’t bad at at all but it’s not taking advantage of his talents, the defense boosts up in the playoffs and at least net rtg data stuff really point at him being the reason why on their main rotation

Otoh, his tracking data looks closer to 2019 than 2020, tracking data has faults though, but I do think if the assumption is giannis steps it up in the playoffs, and while I do think there are other factors at play the bucks defense clearly isn’t reflected by their regular season, then if you err on the side that he’s his 2020 self (an oversimplification) then he should be a tier 1A defender

On Green, I feel green is underrated for his playoff defense, but I generally have IQ and versatility as being more important on defense in the playoffs, and I think Green has the best defensive iq in nba history by quite a bit (russell better relatively speaking but that’s pretty much it). So as high as I am on giannis I’m not against draymond being a better defender in the situations they are in, quarterback draymond hits different.

I honestly feel like nitpicking giannis amd bucks defense over 2020 playoffs is like nitpicking curry and warriors offense over 2016 playoffs

And while i dont necesarrily disagree with green being a better playoffs defender than giannis

The bucks actually have a better defensive run in 19-22 (both regular season amd playoffs) than warriors did in 15-19 and is not like green didnt play with great defensive talent too

I'm curious if any of you guys have thought's on this, but it seems to me that Giannis has had ridiculously well-constructed teams around him for the past few years and perhaps that's made him look better on both sides of the ball than the average ATG.

Of course, most of these guys were discussing have played on stacked teams but what generally has stood out to me in my limited study of Giannis is how good the rosters around Giannis have been, and moreover how well those casts have complemented his specific skillset. Just a thought.

I think the two things you get when it comes to the team around you are strong fit or strong talent. Strong fit needs to have great coaching (while not diminishing him from being potentially a GOAT level offensive big for example, post centric offenses like the nuggets this past year require strong finishers and an understanding of how to counter help from the baseline or from the wing, which the Nuggets do good in) while strong talent can sometimes overcome poor coaching and poor fit (2020 Lakers in many regards offensively don’t make sense around AD, but ofc they have bron and they’re overall dominance puts them up there).

The bucks roster defensively fit around giannis, giannis is maximized as a helpside guy so having good pick and roll defensive combos is great

Offensively there’s a lot of talent for sure, but jrue + giannis as a pick and roll duo is a bit clunky in that drop coverage just makes sense against it, although Middleton and Giannis seem like a pretty strong duo, dropping doesn’t work on Middleton, although switching might be a bit of an issue against it.

The shooting around him otoh is pretty great, dropped off a bit in the playoffs though. Coaching was an issue till 2021 and 2022, I wouldn’t say they’re the best but I’d say they’re decent in that regard more defensively

Supporting casts in general are more aligned with top tier talent now fit wise so I don’t see it as too damning honestly, he has a strong cast and had strong impact.

[jalengreen]

I'm curious if any of you guys have thought's on this, but it seems to me that Giannis has had ridiculously well-constructed teams around him for the past few years and perhaps that's made him look better on both sides of the ball than the average ATG.

Of course, most of these guys were discussing have played on stacked teams but what generally has stood out to me in my limited study of Giannis is how good the rosters around Giannis have been, and moreover how well those casts have complemented his specific skillset. Just a thought.

I think that's fair. Brook Lopez in particular sticks out as a great fit on both sides with Giannis and they surround him with guys that can shoot and an elite POA defender in Holiday and a formidable iso scorer in Middleton. The shooting drop-off in the postseason should be mentioned, though - that's fairly significant.

I think the same of Curry, though. Someone mentioned (in this thread or another) how Draymond is like the absolute perfect player to pair with Curry, and I fully agree with that. As a fan of Lillard's, I've always wished that he'd have a player like Draymond on his team. And of course it's not just Dray but he stands out to me.

It's an interesting thing to consider because the system that maximizes the impact of different players is not constant vary. I don't think the roster construction and offensive system that maximizes the impact of James Harden is the same as the roster construction and offensive system that maximizes the impact of Steph Curry, as a random example. Is it worth considering which system/roster construction is easier to build around a player when assessing their peak impact and/or careers overall? Or their scalability to different types of roster constructions and systems? I'm not sure how much thought to put into that. It does seem that most of these ATGs had a point in their career in which their value was optimized, so I'm not sure it should be something to dock value from them for.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I’m probably thinking AD at some point pretty soon

Particularly with full runs I’m weighing playoffs far more, especially in a situation like his where they could have been an 8th seed with absolutely no difference in outcome and HCA erased

His regular season does pale in comparison in many ways, mostly from fit and coaching issues, while his playoffs to me are on par with the top 5-10 for me, so somewhere in the 15 range seems good. In terms of level of play it’s a tier 1 level playoff run with him using his secondary skillset as his primary one.

Him vs Jokic is interesting to me, but while I don’t 100% believe in Jokic’s defensive concerns it’s enough for me to say that I’d take bubble AD over playoff Jokic pretty easily. The gap between RS Jokic and RS AD is bigger, but i guess if we’re talking in SRS terms I’m taking a +3 RS and +10 playoff guy over a +10RS and a +7 playoffs

I’m probably going to rank Kobe quite high too, since I really think he dominates other eras and just wasn’t in a great time for his archetype of player.

Garnett above both of them, probably a few more above Kobe too, Dr.J and Walton too altho idk much about them but my assumption is they should be higher. KD and Kawhi probably between 15-20

[falcolombardi]

I’m probably thinking AD at some point pretty soon

Particularly with full runs I’m weighing playoffs far more, especially in a situation like his where they could have been an 8th seed with absolutely no difference in outcome and HCA erased

His regular season does pale in comparison in many ways, mostly from fit and coaching issues, while his playoffs to me are on par with the top 5-10 for me, so somewhere in the 15 range seems good. In terms of level of play it’s a tier 1 level playoff run with him using his secondary skillset as his primary one.

Him vs Jokic is interesting to me, but while I don’t 100% believe in Jokic’s defensive concerns it’s enough for me to say that I’d take bubble AD over playoff Jokic pretty easily. The gap between RS Jokic and RS AD is bigger, but i guess if we’re talking in SRS terms I’m taking a +3 RS and +10 playoff guy over a +10RS and a +7 playoffs

I’m probably going to rank Kobe quite high too, since I really think he dominates other eras and just wasn’t in a great time for his archetype of player.

Garnett above both of them, probably a few more above Kobe too, Dr.J and Walton too altho idk much about them but my assumption is they should be higher. KD and Kawhi probably between 15-20

How you feeling about nash and wade btw, i am wondering about them a lot at this stage.

[jalengreen]

Just noticed the large gap (in ranking, I suppose the actual margins aren't that large at that point in a peaks project) between Westbrook (#25) and Harden (#35). Sorta random to bring that up now but that kinda surprised me because my instinct would be that peak Harden would be higher.

[DraymondGold]

#1.) Oscar Robertson (Pick a year) -> Triple Double Machine.

#2.) 1995 David Robinson

#3.) 2017 Stephen Curry

Hi mdonnelly1989, glad to see you joining the conversation Just so you know, I think you need to have at least 1 sentence of reasoning for each player, so you might want to add some details/explanation to get your vote counted!

____________
Since Garnett Curry and Giannis were the top 3 in the last thread, let me compare them!

Here's Garnett vs Giannis vs Curry by the stats:

Spoiler:

Plus minus data
Ai. AuPM: 16/17 Curry > 04 Garnett > 19/20/21 Giannis
Aii. Postseason AuPM: 17 Curry > 04 Garnett > 21 Giannis
Bi. Goldstein RAPM: Garnett > Curry > Giannis
Bii. Goldstein RS/Playoff PIPM: Curry > Garnett > Giannis
C. Fivethirtyeight’s Overall RAPTOR +/-: Curry >> Giannis. Note: this is a per 75 stat. If we do per season volume, Curry rise and KD rise, but per season Raptor rewards long playoff runs.
 No Garnett Numbers
D. Bball-Index’s LEBRON: (19/20 Regular Season Giannis) > Curry > (21/22 Giannis) (no Garnett numbers)
E. DARKO: Curry > Giannis (no Garnett Numbers)
F. WOWY: Curry >> Garnett (No Giannis numbers)
G. Additional plus minus stats: ESPN’s RPM: Curry > Giannis > Garnett
H. Additional plus minus stats: Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: Curry > Garnett > Giannis


Box score-based data
Ii. Backpicks BPM: Curry >> Giannis > Garnett
Iii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: Curry > Giannis > Garnett
Ji. BR’s BPM: Curry > Giannis > Garnett
Jii. BR’s Postseason BPM: Giannis > Curry > Garnett

The data supports: Curry >> KG and Giannis.
16/17 Curry is clearly over 21/22 Giannis by the data: Curry beats Giannis in 12/13 of the all-in-one metrics we have.
16/17 Curry is clearly over 04 Garnett by the data: Curry beats Garnett in 10/11 of the all-in-one metrics we have.

We discussed this last time, but I wanted to bring it up again incase anyone wanted to join the conversation. Happy to discuss more if people have more comments!
Resilience Concerns for Giannis: tl;dr 1) Massive scoring decline, particularly an efficiency decline in midrange/free throw/3 point shooting. 2) Giannis doesn't improve enough in his best series compared to Curry. 3) Despite offensive improvement in 21/22, he still declines more against better defenses than other peaks, likely because they can take away his rim attempts. 4) Personally, I don't see the defense as enough to make up for the offensive drop.

1) Scoring Decline: In literally every prime playoff, Giannis has had a scoring decline, and scoring is his best offensive trait:
in 2019 playoffs: Massive drop in scoring (-2.2 pts/75 drop, -6.8% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2020 playoffs: Drop in scoring (-2.2 pts/75 drop, -1.4% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2021 playoffs: Drop in scoring (-0.5 pts/75 drop, -3.3% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2022 playoffs: Massive drop in scoring (-1.3 pts/75 drop, -6.8% rTS efficiency drop)

There's a clear shooting decline from the free throw line, long midrange, and 3 point line, and a rim-scoring decline against tougher defenses Giannis has declined in Free Throw percentage in literally every playoff run, at an average of -9.2%. Why? Here's my hypothesis: Certain high-motor players (e.g. Westbrook) show a 3 point / free throw decline if they're exerting extra offensive / defensive energy and don't get the chance to calm down before taking the shot. This might be true for Giannis. Let's say, entirely hypothetically of course, in Giannis' best playoff run the fans were counting down his Free Throw shooting to make sure he got it off on time... that might cause a decline in shooting, not that something like that would ever happen

2) Giannis doesn't improve enough in his best series: In the last thread, people mentioned Giannis improves vs Curry in Giannis best playoff series. Maybe he does! But is it enough?

2017 Curry's 2 best series: 28.3 pts/75, +13.0 rTS%, 4.32 ScoreVal. 7.1 ast/75, 10.9 Box Creation, 2.0 PlayVal. 9.4 AuPM, 9.2 BPM
2021 Giannis' 2 best series: 31.6 pts/75, +5.9 rTS%, 2.50 ScoreVal. 4 ast/75, 7.7 Box Creation, 1.2 PlayVal. 6.3 AuPM, 6.5 BPM

Of course Giannis has the defensive advantage, but the offense is a landslide in Curry's favor, and the all-in-one metrics are too. You might argue the defense doesn't get captured in the all-in-one metrics, but AuPM/BPM also underrate Curry's off-ball impact/off-ball creation.

Curry wins in literally every one of these stats if we compare their performance vs the 19 Raptors.

3) Despite improvements, 21/22 still loses more against top defenses than other Peaks. Does Giannis' offense and resilience improve in 21/22? Sure! For example, the scheme has changed to have Giannis more off-ball and with more spacing around him. But... he still doesn't show great resilience.

Well, let's look at his offensive peak in 21/22 playoffs:
-Against bottom 10 defenses (21 Nets, 21 Hawks, 22 Bulls): -0.0 ScoreVal, -0.1 pts75, -1.5 rTS%
-Against other top 10 defenses (21 Miami, 21 Suns, not including 22 Celtics): +0.1 Scoreval, -0.2 pts/75, -4.5 rTS%
-Against all Top 10 defenses (21 Miami, 21 Suns, 22 Celtics): -1.1 ScoreVal, -0.5 pts/75, -6.9 rTS%
So Giannis has shows small decline in volume and efficiency against bad defenses, a large decline in efficiency against top defenses even if we don't include the Celtics, and an all-time decline in efficiency if we don't filter out the Celtics. Here's my hypothesis: Giannis' ranged shooting (midrange/free throw/3 point shooting) gets worse in the playoffs, possibly due to increased effort/motor on both ends, regardless of opponent. The greater scoring dip against better defenses is because better defenses can better take away his rim attempts in the half court. It's worth noting that the Bucks as a whole also show a greater decline against better teams than other Greatest Peak players' teams, so I tend to think Giannis' resilience disadvantage does impact team results. Question for people: Are we sure we're not biased for Giannis' resilience just because of a single playoff series vs Suns?

4) Defense: I'm also unconvinced that the defense is enough to make up for it. There's two factors that people have argued against in this thread:
-Does Giannis play in a worse era for defense? This is absolutely true! And his defense would definitely improve in a worse era (though I tend to think his offense would decline). But like Doctor MJ has said, Garnett and Russell are certainly at least at the same level of defensive athleticism, while they're vastly superior mentally. I tend to give them the nod. Hakeem might have less mobility than Giannis (not sure about who's smarter -- open for suggestions!), but Hakeem is the superior man defender and rim protector. Adjusting for era isn't quite enough to put Giannis in that top tier of defenders, to me at least.
-In 2021/2022, was he coasting? 2020 was certainly his best regular season defense. Let's grant that he was just coasting in 2021 and 2022. I do see a slight decline in motor and athleticism, but let's say he makes up for it with better BBIQ. Well, if people aren't downgrading 21 Giannis for coasting in the regular season, I hope they're consistent with other players who showed less regular season value and improved in the playoffs.

Giannis vs Garnett:
Peak Garnett and Giannis are far closer. They're tied 5-5 in the stats I had above. Interestingly, Giannis wins all 4 box metrics and ESPN's RPM, while Garnett wins every other stat based on plus minus data (AuPM, PS AuPM, RAPM, PS PIPM, CORP). To me, this is likely because Garnett has more defensive value that doesn't get captured in the box score than Giannis.

So let's consider some contextual factors.
Scalability: Garnett > Giannis. He's a far better shooter and spacer, passer, general facilitator, and overall off-ball player (though Giannis has gotten better off-ball over the years, which is lovely to see! )

Resilience: I've argued both Garnett and Giannis have resilience issues. I definitely don't think any player has an extreme advantage here. In 2008, with a good fitting team, Garnett did show better resilience than Giannis has shown in my opinion, but Garnett didn't show it at his peak. Let's call it a tie, but I certainly don't think Giannis has the clear advantage here.

Health: Not much of a factor. Garnett was slightly healthier throughout his prime, but in 2021 Giannis wasn't too impacted by injury (credit to him! very glad his finals weren't impacted )

Defense missing in the stats: Garnett > Giannis. Giannis definitely had more impact in his own era, and I'm skeptical Giannis would be a better defender than Garnett in either era (though he would improve back in the 2000s!). Garnett's' bigger boost from the box-stats to the plus-minus stats adds credence that his defensive impact is bigger.

Team Fit limiting stats/success: Garnett > Giannis. The 2021 Bucks were certainly a better built team than Garnett's 2004 team. Garnett was definitely more limited by a poor situation.

Time machine: Garnett > Giannis. I'd say Garnett improves more today: his horizontal defense is GOAT-level, and his passing and spacing would be even more valuable. Meanwhile, Giannis' defense would improve in the past, but with stricter dribbling rules and less spacing in the half-court, I'm worried he'd be facing "build a wall" defenses more often.

Anyway, that's why I personally have Curry > Garnett > Giannis. To be clear: I love Giannis' peak, and I definitely think it has an argument for top 20. His athleticism is great, and those transition and defensive highlights are something to behold. But I just can't see Giannis over Garnett or especially Curry. Let me know where y'all disagree!

[Proxy]

11. 2017 Stephen Curry(explained in every thread since thread #3 but I could copy paste if needed) (2016)
12. 2004 Kevin Garnett(same as Steph, explained in every thread since #3 ) (2003)
13.1977 Bill Walton


One of the more portable big men(in his era and possibly even era to era for a time machine argument) OAT. All-time bigman passer that rarely missed opportunities in the halfcourt due to his insanely quick processing speed and court vision, also a good outlet passer. Decent post scorer and mid range shooter, good lob threat that offers vertical spacing, and a pretty active off ball player(very good cutter and the shooting threat added layers there with his lob potential too and made him pretty flexible) adding another dynamic from stressing defenses from that as well. He averaged a solid 18.7 points per 75 on 109 TS+ from 1977-1978.

Walton's main weaknesses to me on offense were passing on the move/off the dribble(I think this improved a bit in Boston) and I don't think he had the ability to really ramp up his scoring rate that much like other players around this level if he was asked to, but i'd still call him one of the best center playmakers ever, maybe even #2 behind Jokic depending on how much setting up teammates with passing and pace managing is valued - I don't think of him as a very strong creator but I think his knack for hitting tight windows more consistently than most players i've ever seen made up for it alot, rly similae to Jokic in some ways. I imagine he'd still be fairly resilient due to how hard to stop most things he did outside of post scoring were on offense but i'm just not entirely sure which is part of why I haven't voted him in for top 10, I can't see him being that much better offensively than anyone being argued rn besides Russell - if he's even better offensively in the first place.


Extremely switchable center for the era, super active help defender(maybe one of the most active i've seen even) especially in passing lanes, very good post defender, fine shot blocker and also an all-time defensive rebounder. Overall just a VERY strong paint protector in general but i'd also say the rules of the era helped him reach heights of defensive impact he probably would not have in future ones(ex: spacing and lack of 3 point line) and helping him get to possibly one of the top 5-10 ish relative to era defensive peaks of all time.

Defense stuff:
95.6 DRTG with him and a full rotation
102.9 DRTG with him as the only missing player in 26 games from 77-78(+7.3 difference)


All this added up to him looking like one of the most impactful players ever, and I think the impact was mostly felt on defense. In the games he played in from 1977-1978 the Blazers played as a shocking +8.5 SRS(and a 64 ish win pace). These are some of the more impressive results from any team ever really and it was a 9.7 SRS difference from the 26 games he didn't play in(!) - helping him boast the highest WOWY score of all time(+9.1) which even factors in sample size to determine how impressive a sample should look.

Explanation behind WOWY score:
https://backpicks.com/2016/08/24/i-historical-impact-wowy-score-update/
https://backpicks.com/metrics/wowy-data/

The 1978(and 1977 to some degree) Blazers were also extremely dominant when "healthy", playing at a +9.4 SRS level when the next best teams in the league in that 1974 - 1979 span were cracking like 6 to 6.5 SRS levels at best and parity was much higher.

https://backpicks.com/2016/07/18/top-healthy-teams-in-nba-history/



Fwiw Walton almost even beat out 1977 Kareem(who was voted as the 4th best peak) in the retro POY voting for 1977(.872 shares to .817 shares, and others like Doctor MJ have mentioned how they believe he even has an argument to be the more valuable player when healthy, and his indicators in the very small sample we have kinda hint at that possibly, which was touched on a little in the original thread.
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1042101

I am SIGNIFICANTLY less confident in this pick compared to others and I might still change it to someone else I consider to be in this next tier of like 10 different players(i'm thinking Oscar, Jerry, KD, Kobe, Giannis, Jokic, Wade, Drob, Dirk, or Julius rn - maybe Mikan but I have so little confidence in myself making a strong argument for him), but his direct comparisons to Kareem in the same year, who was on my ballot since the 3rd thread just gave me the slight edge when thinking about my third spot.

The main three problems to me are health and sample size, he missed so many games and only has one deep playoff run under his name in his prime so part of me thinks it's just unfair to place him so highly. As well as the fact that his impact footprint could just be due to the Blazers being specifically mega dependent on him, and it is possible he would be a much less impactful player on other teams - though I doubt it because I think his skillset would fit extremely well on basically every team of that era and like I said, I think he's probably one of the more portable players ever.

Otoh he does seem to have been potentially very valuable in his post prime on the 1986 Celtics if that could be used to support the idea of him being a possibly very high value player in other situations in his short prime. Sansterre made this argument during his top 100 teams OAT project and honestly I can sort of buy it:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2068382

There are alot of games missing because the YouTube nuke lately so I don't have a bunch of the games I have saved to post, but some channels should still have a few games from the 1977 series against the Lakers, and some from the 1977 finals as well at least if you try looking enough, maybe someone else could help there.

Watch on YouTube

[falcolombardi]

Hot take: i am seriously considering dwayne wade already

He is arguably the last player after hakeem and duncan (and barrt now that i remember him) who "carried" a modrrate talent team to a ring

[DraymondGold]

11. 2017 Stephen Curry(explained in every thread since thread #3 but I could copy paste if needed) (2016)
12. 2004 Kevin Garnett(same as Steph, explained in every thread since #3 ) (2003)

Yep, I know what you feel like!

13.1977 Bill Walton ... I am SIGNIFICANTLY less confident in this pick compared to others and I might still change it to someone else I consider to be in this next tier of like 10 different players(i'm thinking Oscar, Jerry, KD, Kobe, Giannis, Jokic, Wade, Drob, Dirk, or Julius rn - maybe Mikan

Yeah around this time the tiers start getting larger and less clear. Which makes it interesting! I personally have Wade/Dirk/Erving lower, but I'm higher on Robinson who I have right in this tier.

Couple questions for you (or for others if they want to join):
1. Why do you have Walton > Robinson?
2. Why Oscar > West (or the other perimeter stars, like KD/Kobe/Erving)?

Personally, I have Curry then Garnett at the top of this group (actually I have them in the tier before this ). Other comparisons:
-I have Robinson > Walton.
-The (hyper-limited) data we have suggests Oscar > West, but I wonder if West's Scalability/Time Machine/Resilience advantage is enough to put West first.
-The data also suggests KD >= Kobe, but it's pretty close. KD has the scalability advantage, while Kobe is more resilient and I'd argue KD benefited from a better fitting team. Another tough choice.
-KD/Kobe vs Oscar/West: The data does favor KD/Kobe > Oscar/West, primarily from the box-score stats, but I wonder how much older perimeter players are unfairly discounted by the box-score stats. Perhaps it's an accurate evaluation of guard value in that era, but you'd have to think Oscar/West would do better in more perimeter-centric era. I don't think it's enough to take Oscar/West over the top peaks we're still considering (over Curry/Garnett), but it might be enough to push them in contention with KD/Kobe.
-Of course, it's great to have a ranking for the big men and the perimeter players separately, but the next question is how players compare across position (e.g. Robinson/Walton vs KD/Kobe). I wonder whether the fact that it's easier to compare similar positions is part of what biased us to vote 6 Big Men in a row from peak #3 to peak #8... hopefully we can do more cross-position comparisons in this next tier!

Side note: Moses/Erving are definitely not at the top by the stats we have, but I haven't gotten a chance to compare how they look vs the lower end of the next tier yet. Hopefully soon though!

[capfan33]

I'm curious if any of you guys have thought's on this, but it seems to me that Giannis has had ridiculously well-constructed teams around him for the past few years and perhaps that's made him look better on both sides of the ball than the average ATG.

Of course, most of these guys were discussing have played on stacked teams but what generally has stood out to me in my limited study of Giannis is how good the rosters around Giannis have been, and moreover how well those casts have complemented his specific skillset. Just a thought.

I think that's fair. Brook Lopez in particular sticks out as a great fit on both sides with Giannis and they surround him with guys that can shoot and an elite POA defender in Holiday and a formidable iso scorer in Middleton. The shooting drop-off in the postseason should be mentioned, though - that's fairly significant.

I think the same of Curry, though. Someone mentioned (in this thread or another) how Draymond is like the absolute perfect player to pair with Curry, and I fully agree with that. As a fan of Lillard's, I've always wished that he'd have a player like Draymond on his team. And of course it's not just Dray but he stands out to me.

It's an interesting thing to consider because the system that maximizes the impact of different players is not constant vary. I don't think the roster construction and offensive system that maximizes the impact of James Harden is the same as the roster construction and offensive system that maximizes the impact of Steph Curry, as a random example. Is it worth considering which system/roster construction is easier to build around a player when assessing their peak impact and/or careers overall? Or their scalability to different types of roster constructions and systems? I'm not sure how much thought to put into that. It does seem that most of these ATGs had a point in their career in which their value was optimized, so I'm not sure it should be something to dock value from them for.

With the shooting drop-off in particular I do wonder if the Bucks supporting cast drop-off is more pronounced than the average supporting cast for a star player. The idea of role players shooting worse in the playoffs is a pretty common one, I don't think is a problem unique to the Bucks, its more a question of how the Bucks compare to other teams in that regard.

And yea, just generally the rosters around Giannis have looked pretty ridiculous to me. Lopez might actually be the ideal fit next to Giannis on both sides of the ball, 7-foot 5s that can protect the rim and stretch the floor are rare to say the least and ideal ceiling raisers. Holiday has long been one of the best 2-way players in the NBA, has arguably been the best perimeter guard defender in the NBA and Middleton perfectly complements Giannis in his ability to create individual offense in the postseason, which also isn't the easiest skillset to find. Not to mention guys like Portis and Connaughton who are excellent role players. The roster just seems to be close to ideal in every way around him.

[f4p]

Not as good or complementary as curry ones in 17 and 18 tho

and imo not better than curry ones in 15 and 22. Green is a better player than an average of jrue/bledsoe and klay comparable to middleton with iggy~brook

Regardless i am comparing defwnsive casts around green and giannis

All thinghs being equal i think giannis defense cast may be a equal to a bit better than draymond but green doesnt havr to worry about leading the offense

nothing can top how perfect curry's rosters have been for him (at least amongst great teams). if curry is one half of an amulet, then draymond green is the other half. both benefit hugely from each other. green drafted by the hornets would probably be someone we hardly talked about. their D wouldn't suit him and his offensive talents without curry wouldn't seem so important. and curry without an all time defender to give all his title teams the best defense in the league and to perfectly run the offense, both halfcourt and transition, wouldn't look as good. then throw in klay being the perfect offensive #2 and a guy like iggy to basically the draymond-lite. and that's not even mentioning KD being like the ideal type of PF for their system, while also being insanely talented.

giannis has had some nice teammates that allow them to arguably look great by measures like SRS in 2019 and 2020, but jrue has enough offensive limitations and the team as a whole relies on giannis for everything to a point that i wouldn't put them up their with the fit that the warriors are.