Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #11 - 2016-17 Stephen Curry

[ardee]

Random: does anyone else feel like there's no way to actually give every player the respect he deserves?

I remember doing a peaks project in 2012 for the first time and it felt kinda straightforward. Now, it's been 10 years since, and there have been so many amazing players since then who will likely definitely feature in the project (Durant, Curry, WB, Harden, Kawhi, Davis, Giannis, Jokic, Luka for starters), that it feels like no matter what someone is gonna get snubbed and look like he got a lower ranking than he deserved.

yeah every time someone brings up someone who isn't in my top 3 in a given thread, i'm like "oh yeah, that guy". like i figured i would have 77 walton pretty high and now i'm trying to figure out where to squeeze him in and i want to get wade and garnett in at some point, but then i haven't put a jokic/giannis/curry season in and then i realize i have no idea what to do with guys like west and oscar. and apparently i should be thinking about 76 erving.

1-10 were hard enough. I can think of legit 15+ guys who all have an 11-20 case.

Off the top of my head, in no particular order,

Walton
Curry
Kobe
Wade
Dirk
West
Oscar
Erving
Moses
Jokic
Giannis
Westbrook
Durant
Kawhi
Barkley
CP3
Nash
Ewing
Robinson
Davis

Some of them are clearly better than the others but I don't think it's at all unreasonable to say all of them at least have a case for the bottom end of 11-20.

It's crazy to me because I am fairly confident in how I rank my ATL, but with this project after the top 10 it's such a crapshoot.

[ardee]

Love that you're bringing him up. I haven't forgotten about him, and I think you can make an argument he should have gone in long ago. To me the Kareem vs Walton argument is not open and shut.

I suppose though I wasn't looking to try to argue for him before Giannis among the bigs. Again not saying the case is open and shut Giannis > Walton, but Giannis has a really solid case and I suppose I'd just be really surprised if many people put Walton with his limited minutes even in his biggest seasons, ahead of him.

If I'm being honest with you, it takes a while for me to be comfortable ranking relatively newer guys over older legends. That's just how I view the game I guess. Even with Walton's limited sample size, the time that has elapsed since then ensures we have a very good grasp on his impact.

So with someone like Giannis, I'm just hesitant. I don't think that in 2009 anyone was saying LeBron just had the GOAT regular season. We said he was great, sure, but it took some time before we realized HOW great. So when I see guys like Giannis and Jokic shattering advanced stat records in the last few years I acknowledge that yeah they may actually be as good as the numbers suggest but it's going to take a bit for me to trust that's the case, moreso out of respect for the previous generations (I think this is what you were talking about with Curry).

Edit: also, what about Jokic vs Walton?

Jokic with his passing initially was basically a supercharged Walton offensively but in the last few years has gained a scoring game that IMO by itself should be comparable in impact to Walton's defense.

Jokic vs Walton is a great debate. Without question Jokic has the advantage on offense and Walton on defense.

The thing I've been pondering recently is how solid Jokic looked defensively this year until the playoffs. While Walton is certainly quicker (and surely seems longer) than Jokic, every truly big big man is getting exploited in the playoffs nowadays. While Walton would handle it better than Jokic, how much better? If we could say that Walton would be the best defender in the playoffs today, then I'd be comfortable ranking him ahead of Jokic.

On the other hand, we might actually be able to say that a fit Jokic back in the '70s would be fundamentally solid against all the attacks of the day. He'd of course still not be as good as Walton, but it's possible that even in the '70s Jokic would be better overall.

I think Jokic is highly likely to be considered better than peak Walton given enough time, but it's one of those comparisons where we just need some years to pass to allow our perception of him to marinate enough for us to fully trust him enough to make that assessment. As I said above, just the way perception of Curry has changed after this past year as well.

[ceoofkobefans]

8. 2016 Steph Curry

Now you can use 17 as his peak if you’re gonna tax 16 for the PO injury but 16 clearly has better shot making and the years aren’t much different everywhere else. 16 Steph curry is a clear t4 offensive peak ever. What makes Steph such an amazing player is that he gives you the best off ball movement ever while being the greatest shooter ever and him being an elite on ball player makes not only his offense the most unique style ever but also how defenses have to guard him. He’s being doubled at half court and you have to keep 2 guys on him regardless of if he has the ball which makes shot creating for him very easy (**** he’s creating shots without ever touching the ball). Being the best off ball creator ever while still being elite on the ball makes him a t10 playmaker Imo and I don’t even need to go into how he’s a t10 scorer ever. The 30 PPG on +10 rTS (and being 1 of 2 players ever to lead the league in scoring rate and efficiency) speaks for itself. While he isn’t an elite defender he has a good motor (which is crazy for how active he is on the ball) and has good off ball awareness. He’s a very solid team defender but would get “hunted” on the ball due to how good the rest of the warriors defenders were. I feel like him being a slight + on D is very fair. I like the 8 spot for him but could see him in the tier up or down depending on how high you are on his scoring and defense (and how much you value on ball playmaking)


10. 2008 Kobe Bryant

I know this is probably going to be controversial on this forum since he’s usually fringe t15 on peak lists around here (due to what seems like RS impact metrics). Most Impact metrics generally do have him around the fringe t15 range (like 13-17ish) but Kobe is one of the biggest PO risers ever. Here’s 08-10 Kobe from the RS to PO (biggest peak PO sample we have without 2 first round exits skewing results).

(Box numbers are IA/75)
RS
28.3 PTS
5.3 AST
5.8 TRB
3 TOV
+1.8 rTS
+5.3 BBR BPM (+3.9/g)
+5 BP BPM/g (+6.7/100)
+4.1 AuPM/g (+5.5/100)
+5.96 RAPTOR (+4.4/g)

PO
30.5 PTS
5.6 AST
5.8 TRB
3 TOV/75
+3.9 rTS
+7.8 BPM (+6/g)
+6.3 BP BPM/g (+8.2/100)
+4.7 AuPM/g (+6.1/100)
+8.07 RAPTOR (+6.2/g)

Here’s just 2008 since that’s his best season

RS
28.1 PTS
5.3 AST
6.1 TRB
3 TOV
+3.6 rTS
+5.8 BBR BPM (+4.5/g)
+6.1 BP BPM/g (+7.9/100)
+4.2 AuPM/g (+5.4/100)
+7.09 RAPTOR (+5.5/g)

PO
30.5 PTS
5.6 AST
5.6 TRB
3.2 TOV
+4.9 rTS
+7.4 BBR BPM (+5.9/g)
+6.7 BP BPM/g (+8.4/100)
+2.1 3yr AuPM/g (+2.6/100 this is obviously skewed by the 2 previous years)
+7.63 RAPTOR (+6.06/g)

31 IA PTS/75 on +5 rTS is absolutely insane when you consider that he’s playing in 2 center lineups with his best spacer being him and facing more gravity than anyone in nba history that’s name doesn’t start with an S. Him being able to pretty much maintain that in the PO over a 3yr stretch of finals runs against GOAT tier PO comp (same points on +4 rTS) is pretty damn good evidence for him being not only an all time PO riser but this scoring production being real for him. Him being an all time PO riser makes since because he’s arguably the best tough shot maker of all time and is a clear all time self creator which is the number 1 way for your scoring to be resilient in the PO against tougher defenses and more defensive attention. His defense was also pretty solid in 2008. He did still have a bit of a motor issue in the RS but it consistently would shoot up in the PO and this was no different in 08. He was a very good on ball defender but was also a good off ball defender (really good trapper, was the lakers’ primary communicator, and I thought his off ball awareness was improved from his past few years, although his closeout D wasn’t great which hurt his overall off ball D)

Overall i think it’s pretty fair to put Kobe in that top 10 range although I could see him at like 14ish(?) depending how high you are on others/low on him

12. 2004 Kevin Garnett

I was surprised he didn’t get voted into the top 10 with how seemingly reliant this server is on impact metrics specifically in the RS. How I can see the argument to have KG at 8 but I can also see him under my number 13 (Bill Russell who was already voted. I may do him a profile for him and then add an extra vote along with him so y’all at least get to see my thoughts on him). Now 2004 KG is usually a GOAT tier season by impact metrics but this is because his offense is very boosted (for example in Ben Taylor’s Scaled APM/g KG is a +9.4 overall and a +5.6 offensively which would put him in the same tier as guys like Kobe Bryant Steve Nash and Dwyane Wade) and his offense drops in the PO. The reason he isn’t as good offensively is because he isn’t a good enough self creator to rise as a scorer (especially as a number 1 option) and isn’t good enough on the ball to maintain the same quality of play when receiving more defensive attention (which he did face in the PO which is why his TOV rates went up in 2004). Now KG is still a very good offensive player and I would consider him an Offensive star but I would say he’s worse than a Tim Duncan Offensively because of his PO resilience. We don’t have very good PO samples for prime KG outside of 2004 and 2008 but he does fall across the board in the PO if you look at his PO stats in 04 and 08

(IA/75)

RS
24.9 PTS
4.9 AST
13.4 TRB
2.5 TOV
+3.4 rTS
+9.4 BBR BPM
+6.6 BP BPM/g
+9.05 RAPTOR


PO (44 GP)
23.8 PTS
4.4 AST
13.1 TRB
3 TOV
+.2 rTS
+6.5 BBR BPM
+5.7 BP BPM
+6.26 RAPTOR

KG I think is a really good representation of why the O2 D1 archetype isn’t amazing. It is rare that it will be a maximized archetype and they aren’t good enough on the ball to maintain value in the PO offensively in situations they’re more likely to be in which hurts their overall value. I could see him higher if you’re more confident in his offense in a PO environment but if you’re lower on his defense (which I didn’t really talk about but I don’t think there’s much to discuss ATG perimeter D big goat tier versatility goat tier help defender elite but not all time rim protector fringe t5 defender ever) I could see him behind my number 13

Sorry I posted so late forgot to do so haven’t been on real gm in a few days lol.

[LA Bird]

Voting is still open until the 9am deadline but I will post the thread for round #12 a little early because I will not be online later.
17 Curry currently has a 2x advantage against all other seasons so I don't think we will be getting that many more votes at this time for another season to overtake him.

Edit: Here are the results for round 11

Winner: 17 Curry

There were 16 voters in this round: SickMother, CharityStripe34, Dutchball97, trex_8063, DraymondGold, Doctor MJ, jalengreen, capfan33, falcolombardi, Proxy, Samurai, ardee, letskissbro, f4p, MyUniBroDavis, ceoofkobefans

A total of 34 seasons received at least 1 vote: 03 Garnett, 04 Garnett, 06 Bryant, 06 Wade, 08 Bryant, 08 Garnett, 09 Wade, 15 Curry, 16 Curry, 17 Curry, 17 Leonard, 19 Antetokounmpo, 19 Curry, 20 Antetokounmpo, 20 Davis, 21 Antetokounmpo, 21 Curry, 22 Antetokounmpo, 22 Curry, 49 Mikan, 50 Mikan, 51 Mikan, 58 Pettit, 59 Pettit, 62 Pettit, 62 Robertson 65 Robertson, 64 Robertson, 68 Hawkins, 76 Erving, 77 Walton, 83 Malone, 94 Robinson, 95 Robinson, 96 Robinson

Top 5 seasons
17 Curry: 1.000 (33-0)
16 Curry: 0.970 (32-1), loses to 17 Curry
04 Garnett: 0.939 (31-2), loses to 16 Curry, 17 Curry
76 Erving: 0.903 (28-3), loses to 04 Garnett, 16 Curry, 17 Curry
94 Robinson: 0.900 (27-3), loses to 04 Garnett, 16 Curry, 17 Curry

H2H record
17 Curry vs 16 Curry: 9-4
17 Curry vs 04 Garnett: 8-4
17 Curry vs 76 Erving: 8-3
17 Curry vs 94 Robinson: 9-2
16 Curry vs 04 Garnett: 7-5
16 Curry vs 76 Erving: 7-3
16 Curry vs 94 Robinson: 8-3
04 Garnett vs 76 Erving: 8-4
04 Garnett vs 94 Robinson: 9-0
76 Erving vs 94 Robinson: 4-4