2021 Giannis
- DPOY + Strong offense, already made my case but mostly based on his D
AD 2020
Yeah I’ve changed my mind on this, honestly might have AD higher.
I’ve been pretty consistent with my playoffs > RS take, for AD it’s been more so his RS is so pedestrian that I don’t think him having a playoffs that’s only debatably on the same level as a top 10 peak is enough for me to vote for him
However I was thinking of ADs playoff run as a whole again and I’m starting to realize, at least in my opinion it was actually kind of absurd? Even in a vacuum, and contextually the idea that
“Oh but you see *sips tea* he had lebron james”
Is just a really broad and naive way of looking at it lol.
The points against ADs playoffs are essentially the competition was fairly weak, and he had lebron. To me this is a broad statement saying they were far superior to everyone else.
So ADs regular season was relatively unimpressive, although I do think his lack of impact is understandable. Defensively the Lakers play drop coverage for the most part untill the playoffs happen where they gamelan much more aggressively (which is how AD shines), so with there always being either a Dwight or Javale on the floor, both of whom are fantastic at drop coverage, it’s unsuprising that his impact wasn’t that integral, and offensively it is that effect of taking away form lebron possessions, the Lakers being a pretty bad team process wise from the post, etc etc.
But For me, on title contending teams, and especially in a season where home court advantage obviously didn’t matter whatsoever, I’m pretty content with AD here.
Mainly, even if his RS wasn’t really up to standard, thinking it over his Playoffs were completely insane.
I think without applying context, in a vacuum ADs 2020 playoff run is up there with the best playoff runs ever.
I think as a whole, AD was an ATG scorer, near 2017 Durant in volume and effeciency, while also being a strong DPOY type player
I think high effeciency and volume volume scoring has been a bit underrated at times, true there are factors such as if they are a ball stopper and ruin the offense, if they only get easy buckets, but AD really doesn’t do any of these things
Beyond that, there’s a bit of a thing where everyone’s like “oh but numbers are inflated now.”
Yes, that is true in the sense that we have some REALLY heliocentric offenses now built around players to optimize them better than before, mainly 5 out offenses that you give it one guy and they do every possession. That’s not really what AD does at all though.
Spacing is what makes effeciency rise in general for sure, but this Lakers team is hardly made for spacing. The Lakers had 4 main rotation guys who were threats from three outside of AD, who were Lebron, Green, KCP, Kieff (rondo shot well, they were still sagging off of him to help, they weren’t closing out hard or sticking to him). And green went cold anyways, although they still probably closed out on him I’d assume.
Everyone else is pretty much a “lol shoot bruh ” situation, so I don’t see how spacing helps him all too much, especially relative to his peers
I’ll get to the lebron thing later but
I don’t see his numbers being inflated much by the era at all, not to say that they should be compared equally, but at the end of the day, in a non heliocentric offense, he hit, per 75 possessions (shoutout to draymondgold for per 75 poss lol)
Comparing his scoring numbers to some other ATG title big men scorers (and 1977 Kareem since he was the peak picked even though he didn’t win a title that year, but added 1980 Kareem for another title year)
Bubble AD
27.9/9.8/3.5 on +10.1 rts and 2.6 turnovers a game
2000 Shaq
28.5/13.1/3.7 on +3.3 rts and 2.7 turnovers a game
2003 Duncan
22.7/14.3/3.9 on +5.8 rts and 2.9 turnovers a game
1977 Kareem
28.4/14.6/3.4 on +13.5 rts (3 turnovers would be his average for the next few years per 75 afterwards)
1980 Kareem
27.3/10.4/2.6 on +8.0 rts and 3 turnovers
1994 Hakeem
25.3/11/3.3 on +4.0 rts and 3.1 turnovers
1995 Hakeem
26.9/10.4/3.5 on +1.7 rts and 3.2 turnovers
2011 Dirk
29.3/11.5/2.7 on +6.8 rts and 3.3 turnovers
2017 Durant
28.8/8/4.3 on +13.1 rts and 2.5 turnovers
2021 Giannis
30/11.8/6.2 on +2.7 rts and 3.6 turnovers
In terms of volume and effeciency, he’s averaging absurd numbers
Ironically Amare averaged similar numbers in his 2008 RS, although obviously more limited than AD was and without the three point spacing part (the previous and following year were high efficiency as well but only 23.4 and 21.8 ppg per 75 respectively) and much worse as a passer (1.7 assists per 75, 2.4 turnovers).
His NPI offensive RAPM that year was +3.6… good for third in the nba behind two all time great offensive players in cp3 and Nash that year (cp3 at +3.85 and Nash at 4.87)
We have a situation where his raw effeciency and volume is just crazy to the point where even a guy who does have certain issues that tends to lower the impact of high effeciency high volume scoring (low playmaking, and mostly finishing easy opportunities) he still has fantastic impact
If we are evaluating his “goodness” offensively I think it’s fair to call that an absolute lower end.
Realistically I do think you can view, in a vacuum, 2020 AD as a playoffs 2017 KD type guy in terms of his offensive impact.
Extremely high effeciency and high volume scoring in a vacuum is extremely impactful, and with that he coupled it with an ability to stretch the floor and an ability to score both as a 1 on 1 player and off ball.
It’s worth mentioning the teams offensive rtg with him on the court was 117.4 (third on the team, behind green at 120.9 and rondo and 117.9) while the teams offensive rtg with him off the court was 106.2 (worst on the team) (nba.com)
It’s honestly really odd to me that his offense doesn’t seem to get rated higher, it’s not as if he was scoring off ball exclusively, 57.7% of his 2 point shots were asssisted which isn’t that much more than guys like Duncan (low 50s) or Garnett (high 50s), or by any amount that it isn’t explained by ADs superior off ball game.
AD was arguably the second best offensive player of the playoffs and was the best defensive player of the playoffs
this absurd combination of defense and offense here really can’t be understated. Calling him DPOY KD is obviously a bit of an overstatement, but not really by all that much in a super simplified sense
His effeciency is arguably understated by his raw averages as well. He was absurdly consistent,his 4th worst shooting performance was 59.4TS (the game winner vs the nuggets), 3rd worst 55.8TS (a game where lebron took over so AD only took 9 shots), his first gane vs Portland, and the final game vs the heat, where most of his misses were during a the second half lap where they were up 30 points.
Outside of that he never shot below 60TS, which is kind of absurd, his consistency was absolutely insane, and it’s a situation where two very poor games being down his shooting averages, one where it was his first playoff game in the bubble, another where he was missing shots in garbage time
On the DPOY KD take, to be clear he wasn’t quite that, his 1v1 scoring was good, 1.09ppp, and his post scoring was 0.97ppp, 90th and 65th percentile respectively, great but not 2017 KD level (upon further inspection this is perfectly in line with his RS lol)
At the same time he of course made it up in other ways with his off ball scoring (and many of his cuts were essentially post ups just him acting so quickly it looks like a cut, you see it a lot vs the nuggets) and superior offensive rebounding (outside of the nuggets series where he fully played like a wing, his offensive rebound rate was around 9.8%, which is great for a team with a lot of size in general).
I do think the thing with his offense is, when evaluating it we have a pretty high floor, and a really high ceiling.
The floor would be a supercharged version of the high volume scoring amare seasons, with better offensive rebounding when considering cast, substantially better passing, the ability to stretch the floor from three, better movement off ball in general and ability to create own shot, etc etc.
That sounds kind of low… untill you realize 2005 Amare and 2008 Amare rank 6th and 3rd (if I’m looking at it right) on offense respectively (and giving him DPOY tier defense puts him at first both years)
Then of course you could say hes 2017 Durant with DPOY defense which ranks even higher
In any case, I think this level of two way impact is really only seen in the top 5 peaks, even vs the top 5-10 peaks I feel the you normally get high tier offense and DPOY defense.
The main argument against AD is his supporting cast featured a guy better than him in Lebron.
Lebrons playoffs ranks ahead for me, mostly because he had one of the greatest finals in nba history, while AD simply had an ATG one (while hurt)
Before that, I would say AD probably was better from rounds 1-3, so ADs main problem being that he was good enough that the guy that had been pretty much the undisputed best player in the playoffs when healthy for 7 playoff runs in a row seems a bit odd to me.
Beyond that though, there’s this idea that Lebron commanding defensive attention means AD got easy shots, or that playing with a lebron automatically means AD only scores open layups because playmaKING!
That’s not really how it works, and this is why more so I’m pretty set on AD here versus before when thinking about it
AD had a tier 1 playoff run utilizing his secondary skillset as his primary skillset
Posted this earlier on the 2020 AD thread
I really do wonder how many people actually watched the Lakers during the bubble vs just making the assumption that lebron playmaking + AD good off ball = perfect combination
Bubble AD and 2020 playoff Lebron fit well in the sense that they were an elite two way duo and the best players of the nba bubble.
How Lebron helped AD is basically off of drive and kicks, which I don’t see as anything crazy since spacing 5 gets three point opportunities, and that he and rondo could find AD when he was moving off ball.
That’s pretty much it.
I’ll write down factors going against them, but people REALLY overestimate the significance of the second part of that.
AD was assisted in 57.8% of his 2 point shots in the 2020 RS, the lowest of his career up until that point. For reference, the lowest before that was 61.8% of his 2 point shots assisted, and his more off ball season which was his peak RS impact over the whole year was 71.5%
In the playoffs, this number was 57.7%.
For reference, 2003 Duncan was assisted on 47.5% of his shots in the RS, 51.4% in the playoffs.
2004 KG at 66.3% in the RS, 54% in the playoffs
2011 Dirk at 59% in the RS, 48.5% in the playoffs
2000 Shaq at 60.1% in the RS and 62.8% in the playoffs
In terms of high leverage opportunities, he averaged 2.2 cut scoring possessions a game, and 2.2 roll man possessions a game (9.6% of his possessions for both).
For reference, 12% of Duncan’s were roll man possessions in 07 (data goes from 05 onwards) and 8.6% were cuts
People assume AD spends way more off ball than he is because of his 2015 season where 24% of his possessions were as the roll man. He honestly should be off ball far more, but he isn’t.
28.4% of his shots were within 3 feet, his career average is 34.7%
So did lebron lead to him getting super easy shots or anything like that or “playing it in easy mode?” No, not particularly.
Obviously, having Lebron is better than not having Lebron, it’s silly to say otherwise, but the idea that AD had some sort of unprecedented level of openness he never experienced before is just not true.
Regular season
Lebron on
32.3/12.4/4.5 on 3.1 turnovers a game and 59.3 TS
Lebron off
40.6/12.6/4.0 on 3.8 turnovers a game and 64.0 TS
Playoffs
Lebron on
34.4/12.4/4.4 on 3.2 turnovers a game and 65.5 TS
Lebron off
43.2/14.2/5.2 on 3.8 turnovers a game and 68.7 TS
Lost most of my post after this cuz the page reloaded, so gonna be pretty brief here
This isn’t to say Lebron doesn’t help AD, lebron there is better than lebron not there of course
But it’s ridiculously overstated. Yes, a lot of ADs assists are from lebron, since lebron is quite literally the only playmaker other than rondo on that team. Unless the idea is Lebron makes it so that off ball movement is a million times easier because everyone is watching lebron, which I just feel isn’t a statement I have to respond to because that’s just kinda wild lol (most of those assists were Lebron watching and waiting vs doing something and AD doing something in secondary weakside action)
I think the idea is either because of how nba defenses set up vs slashers, (shell defense), or because opponents ran zone a few times and it looks like they’re loading up on bron (and to be clear AD then broke the zone because bigs that can shoot from the nail kill the zone). If it’s because teams didn’t instantly double AD like they did in the 2000s that’s just not understanding how modern defenses and offenses interact lol. Sometimes the gameplan is hard doubles but it’s hardly the norm, it’s not as if defenses didn’t pack the paint or send help against AD either, but he acts really fast especially if he has a step, but most people confuse post doubles with them deciding to double when someone cuts from the wing or something and the defender that was stunting high messed up and has to kind of make up for it, or run back.
But it’s like, yeah if lebrons attacking you can just help off of one of the Lakers many inconsistent shooters than isn’t AD, and if AD is attacking you can help off of one of the many inconsistent shooters that isn’t Lebron, and we kind of did see the paint get completely packed in the Nuggets series especially at times (Houston too early on, idr the blazers or the heat)
It’s like the Lebron and AD pick and roll is this unstoppable beast that they just don’t run, in reality teams have just switched it and found decent success, which is why they don’t run it much. At the very least if they switch that helps Lebron far more and hes the one attacking, the guys that guard Lebron are usually the ones that guard AD, since you want more mobile bigs or strong tall wings guarding AD vs plodding bigs who he killed
You could also drop too, which is okay, brons a decent three point shooter though so it’s not ideal, and in the bubble AD was going crazy from three. To be clear the majority of the time they dropped AD ended up going for long twos, they went in though.
Rondo is a non scoring threat and despite his percentages they let him shoot, so you just focus on stopping AD.
Essentially most of the positives form the pick and roll game come from the fact that if they mess up the coverage it works out, but there are definately better pick and roll partners in the nba solely for ADs efficiency
ADs pretty much never had an “ideal” pick and roll partner his entire career anyways, so he could be unlocked hella if he had that
Beyond that, ADs skillset in my opinion offensicely goes
off-ball scoring/P and R rolling and cutting > posting up > face up game.
Vogel is a pretty horrible offensive coach, I think most laker fans would attest to that, and they don’t have a guy that requires you to stay on the level of the ball handler in p and r like a Kyrie/lillard/Murray/Curry/Trae, so I don’t think his off ball scoring is particularly maximized, evidenced by his relatively suprising lack of cuts and roll possessions anyway.
The Lakers have pretty trash spacing relative to the nba, especially in the bubble, Pretty much everyone who followed them knows the defense just packed into the paint and chilled there. I mean the Lakers were 21st in three point shooting and volume with lebron and AD, I think that says it all lol.
Bubble wise, rondos numbers were a result of them letting him take open shots, and I don’t think they were particularly scared of green whose shot died in the playoffs, so the Lakers 3 reliable rotation three point shooters other than AD were lebron/KCP/kieff
Also the Lakers don’t know how to run a basic post possession if the defense helps at literal incompetent levels lmao
https://www.bball-index.com/the-lakers-have-a-post-problem/
So AD was in easy mode in the sense that he and Lebron both had incredible ATG postseasons on the same team and killed everyone else
AD being in easy mode in terms of his scoring despite having the largest on ball role in his career, a relatively low percentage of his shots as the typical high value off ball shots, especially considering he’s primary skill is off ball, on a team with pretty horrendous spacing relative to the rest of the nba, on a team with poor offensive coaching that also particularly struggles at coaching a post offense.
It was easy mode in terms of the wins being easy, but that’s about it, people handwave and say “Lebron” without explaining what that actually means, when you look into his actual offensive situation that’s not a situation conducive to historic effeciency high volume scoring as a big
I guess the one thing is lebron ran the offense for the most part? The only series where lebron was super clearly running the show in comparison was the heat series where AD was hurt anyway (and still hit 25ppg on 67TS with DPOY defense). I don’t think ball dominance is necessary for high impact anyways
ADs impact when he went from his primary skillset in 2015 as a roll and cutting big, to his secondary one as a post scorer because of gentry, pretty much since then massively decreased, in his playoff run he wasn’t back to that, he was still using his secondary skillset, and was Atg in that regard
It’s hard to say how good optimized AD would be, in an ideal offense with ideal players to maximize his impact. Maybe if we get Kyrie we’ll find out
(until ham tries to get AD to play like giannis lol)
I will say that especially modern day optimization is SUPER important, we see a lot of high impact players drop a lot in impact with poor coaching or poor roster construction or both (bron in 2021 and 2022 vs 2020 for example).
So AD having a tier one playoff run I think is very impressive all things considered, with so many things working against him in terms of maximizing his box score and impact.
I wanted to look at his scoring again and see just how effecient he was historically
Regular seasons with players +10.0 or more rts, and >25ppg per 75 poss (per backpacks)
2016 Curry (31.9 +12.8rts)
1988 Barkley (26.8 +12.7rts)
2018 Curry (29.9 +11.9 rts)
2008 Amare (27.7 +11.6 rts)
2013 KD (28.2 +11.2 rts)
1984 Dantley (27.8 +10.9 rts)
2014 Lebron (28.4 +10.8 rts)
2013 Lebron (28.1 +10.1 rts)
1991 Barkley (27.8 +10.1 rts)
Obviously quite good company to be in.
I don’t think a lack of playmaking is all that damning as long as he’s not a turnover machine or anything like that, which he wasn’t and historically hasn’t been. He’ll pass it to the open guy, I wouldn’t say passing is a weakness for AD as much as it’s just not really a strength compared to his other qualities, he got better at passing out of doubles and making reads, but when he posts up the Lakers don’t create reads to be made if that makes sense, it’s rather stagnant or they do the wrong thing like cutting from the wing when they send help baseline and making it even worse and stuff like that
In any case, off ball scoring, strong offensive rebounding (outside of the Nuggets series where he was fully a wing), decent passing and not being a black hole, good turnover economy, and especially being a stretch 5 and a great roll man that enabled a lot of things with his shooting, etc etc, mean that I doubt his non scoring impact.
Defensively, I don’t have him quite as good as peak playoff Dray or peak giannis, but I take bubble AD over Gobert. I think AD was a clear cut versatile DPOY type player.
In the end, an elite offense + DPOY is usually a combination for a very elite peak. It’s hard to gauge how impactful ADs offense was specifically in the bubble (on off/106.2 without, 117.4 with, which was better than brons, the offense didn’t drop off too much with AD and without bron either, whereas the reverse wasn’t true, but at the same time it’s hard to see that trend being constant).
Volume scoring tends to get underrated, because other factors can bring it down, but if those factors don’t exist (and AD probably has decently positive non scoring impact, even if he’s not a playmaker like that) it’s usually a good sign, that AD had an absolutely historically effecient high volume scoring run (and increased his effeciency and volume in non lebron minutes) to me is enough for him to be a high tier offensive guy.
I would have him higher, but while I normally excuse stars for coasting in the RS especially if their team is playing well and there’s no reason for them to go all out I’m not sure how much AD was coasting vs it just being a bad situation for him.
If ADs effeciency isn’t because of really good circumstances allowing that relative to the rest of the league (in reality for him specifically it’s probably closer to the opposite, high effeciency in spite of sub optimal conditions for that) then that’s a big deal
Theres a tendancy to argue that his scoring numbers aren’t enough to prove his impact or ability in the bubble (and his impact numbers ofc), but I think the onus is on others to show why one of the most effecient high scoring championship runs of all time is overrated on offense lol
The argument that he had lebron is about as silly to me as saying Duncan had Pop. Lebron helped him in the sense that he was really good, but he’s not the guy that you pair with AD if you wanna maximize his effeciency, but they both are just so good that their combination is still probably a clear lock for top 3 playoff duo (only 2017 Curry and KD + 2001 Shaq and Kobe are realistically in that discussion with them)
For me there are 3 things holding him back
-1. His regular season, the biggest thing by far for me
-2. How dominant they were (which is hard to blame them for)
-3. Him not getting a chance to be optimized, and it being a bit harder to get to those circumstances (although nothing crazy or unrealistic).
Overall though, AD had a arguably top 5 level playoff run
using his secondary skillset in circumstances that relative to the league are pretty horrible in terms of maximizing his impact. I genuinely think Bubble AD with a team well suited and built to increase his level of play prolly ends up as a generation defining level run
2004 KG
- Flip flopping between him and AD. I prefer Playoff AD to him (playoff AD I have as a top 5 material to be clear) but KG having a goat level regular season and a great playoffs does definately move me
). I seriously think he had a case to be voted much higher (also Bird), but C'est la vie. Like people were saying in the last thread, it's hard to have a project like this where someone doesn't seem under appreciated / underrated.
