2022 MLB Draft thread, July 17- 19 - Jays select HS LHSP Brandon Barriera 23rd overall

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Did your team ace the 2022 MLB draft? Kiley McDaniel's recap for all 30 teams - ESPN.com

Toronto Blue Jays

(2/77) 15. Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond HS (SC) (45 FV)
(1/23) 16. Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS (FL) (45 FV)
(2/78) 53. Cade Doughty, 3B, LSU (40+ FV)
(2/60) 82. Josh Kasevich, SS, Oregon (40 FV)
(20/608) 132. Greg Pace Jr., CF, Edison HS (MI) (40 FV)
(3/98) 173. Alan Roden, 1B, Creighton (35+ FV)
(13/398) 243. Bo Bonds, RHP, Louisiana (35+ FV)
(5/158) 260. Mason Fluharty, LHP, Liberty (35+ FV)
(7/218) 286. Peyton Williams, 1B, Iowa (35+ FV)
(9/278) HM. Deveraux Harrison, RHP, Long Beach State
(6/188) HM. T.J. Brock, RHP, Ohio State

Barriera was a nice find at 23rd overall for the Jays. Again, I'm generally more scared than teams by hard-throwing prep pitchers up high, but Barriera comes with a long track record of health and performance along with four pitches that flash plus and a unique personal story. Toman was ranked one spot ahead of him on my list as one of my picks to click and somehow lasted until the late second round, in one of the coups of the draft. Pace is the last prep pick of note and will be a tough sign but is an 80 runner with an improving offensive game.

On the college bat end of things we have Doughty (long track record of hitting, second/third-base fit, no plus tool), Kasevich (hit-over-power type with a good approach that is a definite infield fit even if it might not be shortstop), Roden (a likely corner fit with elite bat-to-ball and some raw power) and Williams (data-friendly exit velos and pitch selection, limited margin for error given the position).

On the college pitching side we have Fluharty (data-friendly shape to above-average fastball/slider in a relief fit), Harrison (college reliever might be able to start in pro ball with solid-average four-pitch mix), Brock (older reliever sits in the mid-90s with a plus slider but well below-average command) and Bonds (juco transfer has a data-friendly fastball and above-average curve, but fits in relief).

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[dagger]

Toman signs for $2 million, slot was $846,000


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Toman signs for $2 million, slot was $846,000

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Hammond baseball star Toman signs with Blue Jays - The High School Sports Report

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[Schad]

Our wiggle room breaks down as follows:

5% overage allowance - +$418,385.

23rd pick - Barriera (unsigned)
60th pick - Kasevich (+$219,200)
77th pick - Toman (-$1,153,100)
78th pick - Doughty (full slot)
3rd round - Roden (+$126,000)
4th round - Jennings (+$395,600)
5th round - Fluharty (+$124,500)
6th round - Brock (+$196,000)
7th round - WIlliams (unsigned)
8th round - Rock (+$151,400)
9th round - Devereaux (+$36,100)
10th round - Churchill (+$142,900)

So I have us at a net $238,600 underslot, with only two picks to sign. Assuming Williams is a shade underslot, that probably pegs Barriera for a bonus in the $3.4m range, with little to no pool money remaining.

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[PowerPlant1]

Our wiggle room breaks down as follows:

5% overage allowance - +$418,385.

23rd pick - Barriera (unsigned)
60th pick - Kasevich (+$219,200)
77th pick - Toman (-$1,153,100)
78th pick - Doughty (full slot)
3rd round - Roden (+$126,000)
4th round - Jennings (+$395,600)
5th round - Fluharty (+$124,500)
6th round - Brock (+$196,000)
7th round - WIlliams (unsigned)
8th round - Rock (+$151,400)
9th round - Devereaux (+$36,100)
10th round - Churchill (+$142,900)

So I have us at a net $238,600 underslot, with only two picks to sign. Assuming Williams is a shade underslot, that probably pegs Barriera for a bonus in the $3.4m range, with little to no pool money remaining.

So this is why I get nervous with a let's shoot for the moon draft strategy. Toman better be worth it and hopefully they did their homework on the underslot picks.

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[Schad]

So this is why I get nervous with a let's shoot for the moon draft strategy. Toman better be worth it and hopefully they did their homework on the underslot picks.

Toman might not succeed. But 4th-10th rounders, even at full slot, have quite a low hit rate as well.

To wit, I looked back at a draft from long enough ago that players have had a chance to make an impact (2015), and the top performers to date from the 4th - 10th rounds:

4th round - Paul DeJong (lowest bonus in the 4th round at $200k).
5th round - Ryan Helsley (fourth-lowest bonus in the round at $225k).
6th round - David Fletcher (third-highest bonus at $407k).
7th round - Jake Cronenworth (tenth-highest at $199k).
8th round - Chris Paddack (third-highest at $400k).
No one drafted in the 9th/10th rounds have managed even 1 career bWAR.


It's pretty random! That's the paradox of the draft: in the end, you're spending millions on players who will never even approach the majors, yet it remains the single most important tool that teams have in roster construction, because the value-added for even modest successes is so large. Perhaps one player per round will be an average major leaguer, if that, and there's no particular science to which it will be.

And for a team in our position, a large portion of that value involves the chance that the prospects will be traded. Toman has greater trade value at present date than any number of at-slot mid-round picks would, and that alone probably favours this strategy.

[PowerPlant1]

So this is why I get nervous with a let's shoot for the moon draft strategy. Toman better be worth it and hopefully they did their homework on the underslot picks.

Toman might not succeed. But 4th-10th rounders, even at full slot, have quite a low hit rate as well.

To wit, I looked back at a draft from long enough ago that players have had a chance to make an impact (2015), and the top performers to date from the 4th - 10th rounds:

4th round - Paul DeJong (lowest bonus in the 4th round at $200k).
5th round - Ryan Helsley (fourth-lowest bonus in the round at $225k).
6th round - David Fletcher (third-highest bonus at $407k).
7th round - Jake Cronenworth (tenth-highest at $199k).
8th round - Chris Paddack (third-highest at $400k).
No one drafted in the 9th/10th rounds have managed even 1 career bWAR.


It's pretty random! That's the paradox of the draft: in the end, you're spending millions on players who will never even approach the majors, yet it remains the single most important tool that teams have in roster construction, because the value-added for even modest successes is so large. Perhaps one player per round will be an average major leaguer, if that, and there's no particular science to which it will be.

And for a team in our position, a large portion of that value involves the chance that the prospects will be traded. Toman has greater trade value at present date than any number of at-slot mid-round picks would, and that alone probably favours this strategy.

I appreciate the research and it makes a pretty good case. But maybe it should have gone back a bit more to see if this is a modern phenomenon but that likely takes long. The trade value is a good point but of course results in the minors will influence value. I do wonder about the # of players beneath those ones in each round that makes your bWAR threshold in total.

Not all teams had 4 picks on day 1 so I wonder if other teams would have employed the same strategy.

On our team, Biggio was a 5th rounder in 2016. Romano was a 10th rounder in 2014.

Looking up the Yankees as a comparison with a stellar team, they have: Rizzo (round 6 2007), Kiner Falefa (round 4 2013-TEX), Jordan Montgomery (round 4 2014). A bunch of their pretty good relievers are late round picks within your time period that have magically 'worked out.'

Anyway, I think the strategy of go big or go home isn't so bad now so long as you have enough money to sign late round picks. I still think that # of draft picks signed is important.

[-MetA4-]

The Jays just put out a press-release of signings, which means that they are more or less done and this should be the final tally for the drafted players.

They had about ~$75,000 left after signing Barriera and it looks like that amount went to getting 12th round pick RHP Nolan Perry (HS) signed as well.

As usual, it's a pretty clinical draft from this staff.

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On our team, Biggio was a 5th rounder in 2016. Romano was a 10th rounder in 2014.

Looking up the Yankees as a comparison with a stellar team, they have: Rizzo (round 6 2007), Kiner Falefa (round 4 2013-TEX), Jordan Montgomery (round 4 2014). A bunch of their pretty good relievers are late round picks within your time period that have magically 'worked out.'

Anyway, I think the strategy of go big or go home isn't so bad now so long as you have enough money to sign late round picks. I still think that # of draft picks signed is important.

Biggio signed for, I believe, slot. Romano was a massively underslot signing at $25k.

Of the others:

- Rizzo was a HSer who got a significant overslot bonus (mid 3rd round money in the late 6th);
- Kiner-Falefa was another underslot signing (drafted late 4th, but got approx. 7th round money, the second-lowest bonus in the 4th round);
- Montgomery got a shade above slot.

A pretty mixed bag!


I'm not at all saying that those picks are worthless, far from it. I'm saying that the correlation between bonus size and future performance begins to weaken significantly after the first couple rounds, and in particular it's extremely weak with the sorts of pitchers who become relievers in the future. The primary difference between a slot bonus in the 7th round or whatever and a significantly underslot bonus is that the underslot guy is very likely a senior with no leverage, which is to say: they're a year older and that's basically where the differences end. A 7th round draftee as a junior is going to have most of the same flaws as a 7th round draftee as a senior, it's just that they have the option of going back to school if you offer them peanuts.

[dagger]

Here are the numbers on Williams, our 7th rounder

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Looks like Kale Davis is transferring to OU

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Looks like Kale Davis is transferring to OU

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Congrats to Frodo.