Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #12 - 2003-04 Kevin Garnett

[jalengreen]

Would you mind doing any of the deeper runs by Wade/Kobe/AD/Kawhi/Giannis (modern guys I've seen with a little traction) for a baseline comparison to how variable those types of numbers can be?

will definitely try to get around to it tomorrow

[falcolombardi]

1-1950 mikan (1951, 1949)

Maybe the Most dominant peak left relative to any era which is why i feel he should be above the fuys who were not really the clear best players of theirs

I think his ceiling can be as higg as 4th best career ever below jordan, kareem, lebron and russ3l for that reason and peak somewhere around that

Seems fair to put him around here when every other player to lead a dinasty or dominate his era is already in

2-2021 giannis (2019, 2022)

I feel like garnett may be bettwr defensively but giannis better offensively by small margins. Garnett often is seen as the more portable one alongside better offensive talent (maybe true) but giannis has proven he can be the first option of a championship team

Bucks playoffs offense is wprrying... but giannis has generally kept producing at hugr volumes of reasonably effective scoring and voluminous playmaking i dont think garnett has the handle/power/willingness to go to the paint over amd over for

The perennial struggles of jrue and bucks shooters with finishing giannis created shots is not somethingh i blame anteto too much for

And i also believe that the "garnett is a better second option" argument is unpersuassive. A on ball scoring/creation skillset of giannis caliber is unvaluable even for a second option and his off balñ offense of reboundint amd finishing is elite too

I am not even convinced giannis wouldnt be a better second option offensively than garnett passing amd shooting game, let alone as first options and considering how the ceiling of a defensive big is lower now giannis results defensivelt may be as impressive as garnett ones

3- 2004 Garnet (2008, 2003)

I already said a lot about garnett in the giannis write up but we are still talking about one of the easiest fit players ever who is an all time great in one end and very inpactful in the other one, i think he is the defensive first equivalent of bird and maybe even more valuable

Just one of the most valuable players of all time who like bird has a offensive game that doesnt stack so well as a scoring first option in the playoffs

[f4p]

1. 2017 Kawhi

This is an excellent regular season with a monster playoffs where he showed that his playoff resilience didn't even care about facing the greatest roster ever, only to be taken out on one of the more famous cheap shots in recent memory. A full WCF would make people like this season more and I can't blame him for a cheap shot injury. 2017 Kawhi wins on lots of teams that had guys who will be listed above him here:

Kawhi's 31.5 PER is 13th all time based on 100 MP and 8th all time for multi-series playoffs. His WS/48 of .314 is 9th all time based on 100 MP and 6th all time for multi-series playoffs. And that's with 1954 mikan included above him. Even with very generous 100 MP and 20 PPG limits, his TS% of 67.2% is 24th all-time. For 200 MP and 24 PPG, it jumps to 6th, and one of the people ahead of him is himself.

If this was a one year phenomenom, I might understand the hesitancy. But "Kawhi puts up huge playoff performance" is not a one year phenomenom. If we are truly talking about peaks, there aren't many higher than 2017 playoffs Kawhi.

2. 1983 Moses Malone

Fo' Fo' Fo'. Led the league in regular season PER and WS48 while putting up 24.5 ppg and 15.3 rpg and winning MVP. Then led the playoffs in PER (25.7) and WS48 (0.260) while putting up 26 ppg and 15.8 rpg on 58.7 TS%. In the Finals, he demolished (35 year old) Kareem with 25.8 ppg and 18.0 rpg in a sweep. I was actually just looking at this season to see where I might put it and then convinced myself when I looked at the rest of the Sixers in the playoffs. After Moses at 25.7 PER and 0.260 WS48, the next highest was Maurice Cheeks at 17.3 PER and Bobby Jones at 0.164 WS48 (Dr J really fell off in the playoffs). That puts Moses as far and away the best player in arguably the most dominant playoff run ever. One that he called before it happened just to make it more impressive. This isn't Shaq with Kobe or KD/Steph all having each other's backs in dominant 1-loss runs. This is a one man wrecking crew. Moses gets disrespected enough on all-time lists, a 3-time MVP with a side hustle of smacking Kareem around in the playoffs shouldn't get the same on peak lists.

3. 2006 Dwyane Wade (alternate 2009 Wade)

I'm a floor raising kind of guy I guess, which doesn't seem typical on this board. People who have everything put on them and come up big in the biggest moments with little to no margin of error impress me more than ceiling raisers putting the finishing touches on an already great team. It just seems like a more common problem to solve throughout NBA history than what to do with all this extra talent. Wade had a very good 27/7/6 regular season as a 3rd year player but obviously this is about the playoffs. On one of the jankiest looking title rosters you'll ever see, on a team where Antoine Walker played the 2nd most playoff minutes and White Chocolate played the 4th most, and Shaq was often getting outplayed by Zo, Wade saved his best moments for the biggest series.

Shot 61.7% in the ECF (68.4 TS%!!) against a still very good Detroit team that had just held Lebron to 81 ppg in the previous series. 26.7/5.5/5.2 looks even better when you realize the pace was 83.8. And then of course there are the Finals. Did he shoot 2 to 3 to 40 more free throws than he should have? Sure, but free throw totals were pretty elevated that year so his totals are only sort of absurd. Put up 34.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and 2.7 spg on 57.2 TS% while maybe leading the best overall Finals comeback ever. Weirdly, the only team that has probably come closer to losing the Finals before winning is also a team with Wade in the 2013 Finals (with 3rd probably also including Wade in the 2011 Finals). The Heat were down 2-0 and down 13 in the 4th quarter of Game 3. That's dangerously close to "1, 2, 3 Cancun!" time and instead Wade just went crazy and put up 42, 36, 43, and 36 in the next 4 games. In a series with a pace of 90! With 3 of the games decided by 1, 2, and 3. In other words, turn those 42/43 games into just 39 point games and the Mavs are celebrating. Efficiency may not be crazy but on that volume with such a weird, offensively limited roster around him against a very solid defense, this is perhaps the best Finals performance ever by anybody not named Lebron or Jordan. It's a title snatched out of thin air that very few players can say they would have been able to pull off. This is a peaks project and it's hard to peak much higher.

[Doctor MJ]

1. Julius Erving '75-76

As I've stated before, the Nets context at this time was something excellent for Erving to lead a championship team with minimal supporting talent - aka, great fit. This didn't represent what you could get from Erving on an average team...but I really don't know how many players in history were capable to taking such bits and lead them to being the best.

2. Kevin Garnett '03-04

Seems clearly the year to pick for Garnett. Had best-in-league type impact, and that impact didn't stop in any obvious way in the playoffs. I think people should be very hesitant to see much gap between this and Duncan's best.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo '20-21

Was debating this 3rd spot between Giannis and the guys I'll mention below, ended up not really settling on Giannis so much as seeing the groundswell for him coming up, and not having any strong objection to him.

I still question how robust Giannis' impact is on either side of the ball against all opponents, but there's no doubt he's capable of best-in-league impact, and after the year in question, the concerns in the playoffs are significantly less.

Honorable Mention:

Oscar & West - very hard to compare to other players frankly, but I'm pretty set on them being the best guards still not in the list.

Walton & Jokic - for me Giannis vs Walton is a thing and Walton vs Jokic is a thing, but I'm not prepared to put Jokic ahead of Giannis at this time, which if I'm honest, probably helps Giannis with respect to Walton. As I've said though, I think Walton has a serious case over Kareem, and Jokic has a case over Walton.

[jalengreen]

The series on/off ratings for deep playoff runs from some of the remaining modern players.

2004 Garnett

Spoiler:

2006 Wade

Spoiler:

2008 Bryant

Spoiler:

2009 Bryant

Spoiler:

2011 Nowitzki

Spoiler:

2011 Wade

Spoiler:

2014 Durant

Spoiler:

2017 Durant

Spoiler:

2018 Durant

Spoiler:

2018 Harden

Spoiler:

2019 Kawhi

Spoiler:

2020 Davis

Spoiler:

2021 Antetokounmpo

Spoiler:

[jalengreen]

1. '04 Kevin Garnett

One of the greatest defenders in NBA history enjoying his peak impact season dragging an unremarkable Timberwolves squad to a 58 win season. On top of his historic defensive impact, his offensive impact is advanced as he's able to space the floor to an extent that other all-time great defenders didn't come close to doing and his playmaking ability makes him the type of player that can fit in virtually any team environment - be it the 2004 Timberwolves or 2008 Celtics.

2. '51 George Mikan
('50 George Mikan)

In terms of relative impact in era at their best, Mikan's arguably up there with anyone. And in most cases I don't really care about strength of competition faced (I think the modern era is the most talented by far but I don't place much weight on that in these comparisons) but I do view Mikan as an extreme exception. I debated whether to put him on by ballot at this point. I think it's a fair spot for him, though, and I've always been impressed by his advanced offensive skillset (while also being a dominant defensive presence) in particular when watching the rare footage available from his playing days. It's certainly possible that I'll change my mind and end up putting someone else in (Robinson, Curry, Erving, Bird, etc all have arguments)

3. '95 David Robinson
('94 David Robinson)

Robinson had an absurd stretch from 94-96 of consistently high two-way impact, leading Spurs teams that were top 10 in RS offensive and defensive rating in all three years. His high post-peak RAPM leaves us wondering what his peak would've looked like with finer metrics, but the metrics we do have support the idea that he had a ridiculous regular season peak. While there was a drop-off in postseason value that should be accounted for, I think he's still worthy of being this high.

[falcolombardi]

The series on/off ratings for deep playoff runs from some of the remaining modern players.

2004 Garnett

Spoiler:

2006 Wade

Spoiler:

2008 Bryant

Spoiler:

2009 Bryant

Spoiler:

2011 Nowitzki

Spoiler:

2011 Wade

Spoiler:

2014 Durant

Spoiler:

2017 Durant

Spoiler:

2018 Durant

Spoiler:

2018 Harden

Spoiler:

2019 Kawhi

Spoiler:

2020 Davis

Spoiler:

2021 Antetokounmpo

Spoiler:

AWESOME

THANKS

[DraymondGold]

1. 2004 Kevin Garnett.
2. 1994 David Robinson
2b. 1995 David Robinson
3. 1966 Jerry West
3b. 1969 Jerry West. 3c. 1968 Jerry West
HM: Oscar, Kobe, Walton, Jokic

Reasoning for KG: Since so many people are focused on Giannis, let me focus my comparison there. In short:
A. Garnett > Giannis: 1) Stats: I’ve mentioned this before, but the stats do favor Garnett. KG clearly wins in RAPM, regular season / playoff PIPM, Corp, regular season and playoff AuPM, and BPM. Giannis is barely ahead in just RPM and playoff BPM. The fact that Garnett does better in the true plus minus stats (sometimes by a lot) while the only stats Giannis wins in have box-score inputs (which might miss KG’s value) make me confident in KG.

2) KG is clearly more scalable. The most scalable skills are spacing, passing, finishing, off-ball play, and defense. KG is better in at least 4/5 of these scalable skills, and is commonly considered a top 5 GOAT scalable star. Giannis isn’t.

3) Giannis has a reputation of being more resilient, but I’ve argued otherwise. Giannis had all-time level scoring/offensive declines in 19-20. Even if he improved in 2021, he still showed some decline, and this decline increased against better teams (he declines even after adjusting for opponent defense). I’m not sure Giannis has the true resilience advantage, and it’s certainly not much if so.

4) Health: KG’s slightly less injury prone in the playoffs, but I don’t think it’s a big factor in either of their peaks.

5) Team fit limiting a player’s impact: here, Garnett >> Giannis. Garnett had the worse team and the worse-fitting team by a lot. KG probably has the worst fitting team at his peak year of any all-time peak. Giannis on the other hand had a great fitting offensive and defensive team in 21.

6) Time machine: KG’s pretty favored in discussions of being moved to today. He’s basically the perfect defender for this era, even over Giannis. Particularly his mental advantage, as one of the smartest defenders ever — he’d be like Draymond in Giannis’ body. Meanwhile, although Giannis might get better defensively in a previous era, he’d be worse offensively. The dribbling rules would be very unforgiving to Giannis’ transition game, and the packed paint would be far harder on Giannis’ driving game.

This is not to say Giannis is a terrible peak, not at all! But Garnett is the better and smarter defender, he’s a massively better passer, he’s a better spacer and complimentary offensive piece, and he might be the better off-ball player. I think he’s the better player.

B. Garnett >> Moses: The data clearly favor KG, as does scalability, the time-machine argument, team fit being poor, etc. Moses isn’t a good defender for an all-time peak at the big man position. KG meanwhile is one of the single best defenders ever. Moses might be the single worst passer to elect at this level, while KG is once again one of the best passing big men ever. KG’s shooting is also better. Garnett is also surprisingly a higher volume scorer in the regular season at their peak. How much of a better rebounder would Moses have to be to make up for all the other gaps?

C. Garnett >> Erving: similar argument to above vs Moses, but less emphasis on rebounding (KG’s the better rebounder) and more on scoring (Erving’s probably the better scorer). It’s also worth repeating that Erving took a massive massive drop the very next year after 1976 when he joined a larger league in the ABA-NBA merger.

D. Garnett >= Robinson. Comparitive stats can be found here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100683694#p100683694
In Preferred stats: Tie. Playoff-only stats: Robinson by 1 (2 ties). Total stats: tie.
94 Robinson is pretty clearly Robinson’s best regular season year and it might edge out 04 Garnett in the regular season stats we have, but people see 94 Robinson as clearly less resilient and 95 Robinson as more. 96 Robinson might be even more resilient relative to regular season value, but the playoff improvement isn’t enough to counteract the regular season decline.

The fact that Robinson performs much better in WOWY and is close in PS PIPM does give me pause, but KG looks great in RAPM and is still better in PS PIPM. Both suffered from some of the worst team construction of any peak player, but I see KG as having worse team. 99 Robinson might edge out 08 KG, but both clearly have better impact with better team construction.
Health isn’t too much of a factor, and neither have a strong defensive advantage. Garnett has the edge in scalability (he’s one of the GOAT scalable players, though Robinson is no slouch there) and in the time machine argument (both on offense and defense). It’s statistically close, but with KG’s peak resilience and contextual factors, I lean him.

Reasoning for Robinson: As I mentioned on the previous page https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100683694#p100683694, Robinson is up next in the stats we have. When not comparing him to Garnett, I like Robinson's scalability over most other players. His resilience clearly struggled as a massive-volume 1st option in the playoffs without help, but he showed he could be far more resilient when paired with another offensive star in 1999 onward. He doesn't have health concerns, his defensive value is massive (which could cause his box-stats to underrate him), and the team fit during his peak was clearly sub-optimal (which likely contributed to his perceived lack of playoff success). I see him doing fairly well in a time machine to today. His defense would clearly be Tier 1 in today's NBA. Offensively, with far more spacing and spread pick-and-roll, I see him being more resilient as a rolling big man.

Reasoning for West: The next tier will be the hardest to order. Now that players' imperfections are getting bigger, we have to start making some difficult comparisons. I might end up changing this vote in the next round (maybe for Walton, Kobe, KD, Oscar, or Jokic). Here's my thought process currently:

Skill wise, Jerry West looks great. He's very likely the best scorer of the bunch, with a fantastic driving game, incredible foul-drawing ability, and a shooting touch that was ahead of his time. He also improved his scoring in the playoffs more than any other star here. In terms of playmaking, he definitely ins't at the level of Oscar, Walton, or Jokic. That said, I don't see it below Kobe, and it's probably above KD (and other players like Moses, Erving, Wade). His defense is also often heralded as the best of the guards and wings we're considering.

Statistically, West seems lower in the group. So what made me pick him?
-BPM: While West does have a lower BPM than many of his competitors, it was far harder to gain separation in BPM as a 1960s guard. BPM could be underrating both Oscar and West. Further, BPM may be less effectively capturing West's defensive value, without any sort of steal/block input. Much of the BPM gap gets closed if we just look at Offensive BPM, and Defensive BPM has him as the worst defender of the guard/wing group (again because of the missing steal/steal numbers), which is certainly not true.
-WOWY: West performs a lot better here. He's 2nd all time in prime un-regressed WOWY and 11th all time in prime regressed WOWYR (which is like RAPM to the un-regressed APM). This stat puts him above all the other wings/guards except Oscar. While Oscar does pull ahead in prime WOWY, if we constrain it to 5-year peak WOWY, West pulls ahead of Oscar (5 years gives us stabler numbers). It's also worth noting that WOWY tends to favor players who are quarterbacks of the offense or defense (e.g. primary play-makers or primary rim protectors) over finishers like West. The fact that West gets this close to Oscar, despite Oscar playing an archetype that is arguably favored by WOWY, makes me wonder whether West is better.
-WS/48: Sticking with the comparison to Oscar, while Oscar is ahead in 1-year regular season WS/48, they're actually tied in 2-year regular season WS/48. The gap shrinks in the playoffs, and West is again ahead in multi-year playoff WS/48.

Philosophically, I also like many of West's characteristics.
He's quite scalable, certainly more than Oscar, Kobe, and Wade. He's single best shooter of the 1960s. As a combo-guard, he could play both on and off ball. And as I've said, he's also arguably the best defender of the bunch. These are all scalable skills. He's also arguably the most resilient; nobody improves their scoring more in the playoffs. I'm definitely open to the idea that the one-number metrics underrate his defense (specifically BPM and WS/48), especially when lacking even the most basic defensive stats in the 60s. I also see him as someone who would clearly win the time-machine test. Jerry West played in the single worst era for a perimeter guard. Today, his all-time shooting would improve, as would the value of his perimeter defense.

Is it possible I'm biased, with the philosophical argument making me too favorable of his worse data? Absolutely possible. Like I said, I'm still figuring this next tier out, so feel free to push back if you disagree. I'm open to reconsidering

[SickMother]

2) KG is clearly more scalable. The most scalable skills are spacing, passing, finishing, off-ball play, and defense. KG is better in at least 4/5 of these scalable skills, and is commonly considered a top 5 GOAT scalable star. Giannis isn’t.

I'll give you off-ball play and defense (by a hair), but which of these three do you have KG better than Giannis?

Spacing: Teams have to build a wall to stop Giannis because he is such an efficient scorer, creating plentiful open looks for his teammates. What did KG do to create spacing for his teammates?

Passing: The last four seasons Giannis has a 31.2 Assist%, Garnett's peak four year stretch was 24.9 Assist%.

Finishing: Giannis is solidly above Garnett in both peak TS+ (115 to 110) and career TS+ (109 to 103) despite being a notably worse free throw shooter (.718 career vs .789 career) & throwing up 3.5 3PA per game at a 29% clip which both drag down his TS+.

[MyUniBroDavis]

The series on/off ratings for deep playoff runs from some of the remaining modern players.

2004 Garnett

Spoiler:

2006 Wade

Spoiler:

2008 Bryant

Spoiler:

2009 Bryant

Spoiler:

2011 Nowitzki

Spoiler:

2011 Wade

Spoiler:

2014 Durant

Spoiler:

2017 Durant

Spoiler:

2018 Durant

Spoiler:

2018 Harden

Spoiler:

2019 Kawhi

Spoiler:

2020 Davis

Spoiler:

2021 Antetokounmpo

Spoiler:

Out of curiousity where did you get this data

Garnett’s data confuses me, I don’t get how on nba.com (vs Lakers) his on court was
104.8 off rtg and 106.1 def rtg
While the teams overall was
103.5 off rtg and 105.3 def rtg

But him being +22.5 on offense and +3.5 on defense, shouldn’t the numbers be closer based on that?

KD was +6.3 vs the Spurs per nba.com (net rtg I mean),

AD was +37.7 vs the trailblazers, +2.3 vs the rockets, +13.5 vs the Nuggets, +26.5 vs the heat

Giannis was +8.4 for his postseason run I think, (garbage lineups went crazy in round 1),

Idk just comparing it to the on-off data from nba.com the data just seems a bit off, the off rtg and def rtg splits are different too

[MyUniBroDavis]

2) KG is clearly more scalable. The most scalable skills are spacing, passing, finishing, off-ball play, and defense. KG is better in at least 4/5 of these scalable skills, and is commonly considered a top 5 GOAT scalable star. Giannis isn’t.

I'll give you off-ball play and defense (by a hair), but which of these three do you have KG better than Giannis?

Spacing: Teams have to build a wall to stop Giannis because he is such an efficient scorer, creating plentiful open looks for his teammates. What did KG do to create spacing for his teammates?

Passing: The last four seasons Giannis has a 31.2 Assist%, Garnett's peak four year stretch was 24.9 Assist%.

Finishing: Giannis is solidly above Garnett in both peak TS+ (115 to 110) and career TS+ (109 to 103) despite being a notably worse free throw shooter (.718 career vs .789 career) & throwing up 3.5 3PA per game at a 29% clip which both drag down his TS+.

I would say Garnett was a better passer in terms of finding passing opportunities and not missing windows while giannis has more creation volume

I think giannis might be better off ball hypothetically lol

[jalengreen]

Out of curiousity where did you get this data

Garnett’s data confuses me, I don’t get how on nba.com (vs Lakers) his on court was
104.8 off rtg and 106.1 def rtg
While the teams overall was
103.5 off rtg and 105.3 def rtg

But him being +22.5 on offense and +3.5 on defense, shouldn’t the numbers be closer based on that?

I used pbpstats.com gamelogs

Definitely could have made a mistake but for example, here's how I calculated the Lakers series.

Spoiler:

Garnett's player game log is here: https://www.pbpstats.com/game-logs/nba/player?Season=2003-04&SeasonType=Playoffs&EntityId=708

Timberwolves' team game log is here: https://www.pbpstats.com/game-logs/nba/team?Season=2003-04&SeasonType=Playoffs&EntityId=1610612750

Combining information from both, we get the following:

G1
MIN had 87 possessions and scored 88 points
Garnett had 80 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 105.00
1.05*80 = 84 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G2
MIN had 80 possessions and scored 89 points
Garnett had 70 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 112.86
1.1286*70 = 79 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G3
MIN had 87 possessions and scored 89 points
Garnett had 74 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 109.46
1.0946*74 = 81 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G4
MIN had 86 possessions and scored 85 points
Garnett had 85 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 100.00
1.00*85 = 85 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G5
MIN had 89 possessions and scored 98 points
Garnett had 84 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 109.52
1.0952*84 = 92 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G6
MIN had 89 possessions and scored 90 points
Garnett had 76 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 101.32
1.0132*76 = 77 points scored with Garnett on the floor

So now we sum up

518 total MIN possessions in the series (469 with KG, so 49 without)
539 total MIN points in the series (498 with KG, so 41 without)

539/518 = 104.1 ortg overall
498/469 = 106.2 ortg with kg
41/49 = 83.7 ortg without kg

We see a massive difference in ORTG with vs without KG, but not a massive effect on the overall ORTG because KG played 90.5% of possible possessions in the series.

Defensive numbers are slightly off because while we have the # of possessions for the opponent, we don't have the # of opponent possessions that KG defended. KG's offensive possessions are just used as an estimate for that, so the DRTG figures are technically estimates (but the ORTG figures are not). Again, unless i messed something up lol but i think my methodology makes sense?

[MyUniBroDavis]

Out of curiousity where did you get this data

Garnett’s data confuses me, I don’t get how on nba.com (vs Lakers) his on court was
104.8 off rtg and 106.1 def rtg
While the teams overall was
103.5 off rtg and 105.3 def rtg

But him being +22.5 on offense and +3.5 on defense, shouldn’t the numbers be closer based on that?

I used pbpstats.com gamelogs

Definitely could have made a mistake but for example, here's how I calculated the Lakers series.

Spoiler:

Garnett's player game log is here: https://www.pbpstats.com/game-logs/nba/player?Season=2003-04&SeasonType=Playoffs&EntityId=708

Timberwolves' team game log is here: https://www.pbpstats.com/game-logs/nba/team?Season=2003-04&SeasonType=Playoffs&EntityId=1610612750

Combining information from both, we get the following:

G1
MIN had 87 possessions and scored 88 points
Garnett had 80 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 105.00
1.05*80 = 84 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G2
MIN had 80 possessions and scored 89 points
Garnett had 70 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 112.86
1.1286*70 = 79 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G3
MIN had 87 possessions and scored 89 points
Garnett had 74 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 109.46
1.0946*74 = 81 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G4
MIN had 86 possessions and scored 85 points
Garnett had 85 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 100.00
1.00*85 = 85 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G5
MIN had 89 possessions and scored 98 points
Garnett had 84 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 109.52
1.0952*84 = 92 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G6
MIN had 89 possessions and scored 90 points
Garnett had 76 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 101.32
1.0132*76 = 77 points scored with Garnett on the floor

So now we sum up

518 total MIN possessions in the series (469 with KG, so 49 without)
539 total MIN points in the series (498 with KG, so 41 without)

539/518 = 104.1 ortg overall
498/469 = 106.2 ortg with kg
41/49 = 83.7 ortg without kg

We see a massive difference in ORTG with vs without KG, but not a massive effect on the overall ORTG because KG played 90.5% of possible possessions in the series.

Defensive numbers are slightly off because while we have the # of possessions for the opponent, we don't have the # of opponent possessions that KG defended. KG's offensive possessions are just used as an estimate for that, so the DRTG figures are technically estimates (but the ORTG figures are not). Again, unless i messed something up lol but i think my methodology makes sense?

I feel bad because I do applaud the work but think the numbers are off one way or another, nba.com uses the possession numbers and the teams off rtg with KG on is 104.8 and overall it’s 103.5, and the on court off rtg for some of them were off

It’s more so just based off the overall team ratings and kgs on court rating mean that his +def rtg should have at least half the absolute value of his +off rtg, or at least approaching it

I’m confused at what went wrong too though

[jalengreen]

Out of curiousity where did you get this data

Garnett’s data confuses me, I don’t get how on nba.com (vs Lakers) his on court was
104.8 off rtg and 106.1 def rtg
While the teams overall was
103.5 off rtg and 105.3 def rtg

But him being +22.5 on offense and +3.5 on defense, shouldn’t the numbers be closer based on that?

I used pbpstats.com gamelogs

Definitely could have made a mistake but for example, here's how I calculated the Lakers series.

Spoiler:

Garnett's player game log is here: https://www.pbpstats.com/game-logs/nba/player?Season=2003-04&SeasonType=Playoffs&EntityId=708

Timberwolves' team game log is here: https://www.pbpstats.com/game-logs/nba/team?Season=2003-04&SeasonType=Playoffs&EntityId=1610612750

Combining information from both, we get the following:

G1
MIN had 87 possessions and scored 88 points
Garnett had 80 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 105.00
1.05*80 = 84 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G2
MIN had 80 possessions and scored 89 points
Garnett had 70 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 112.86
1.1286*70 = 79 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G3
MIN had 87 possessions and scored 89 points
Garnett had 74 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 109.46
1.0946*74 = 81 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G4
MIN had 86 possessions and scored 85 points
Garnett had 85 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 100.00
1.00*85 = 85 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G5
MIN had 89 possessions and scored 98 points
Garnett had 84 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 109.52
1.0952*84 = 92 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G6
MIN had 89 possessions and scored 90 points
Garnett had 76 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 101.32
1.0132*76 = 77 points scored with Garnett on the floor

So now we sum up

518 total MIN possessions in the series (469 with KG, so 49 without)
539 total MIN points in the series (498 with KG, so 41 without)

539/518 = 104.1 ortg overall
498/469 = 106.2 ortg with kg
41/49 = 83.7 ortg without kg

We see a massive difference in ORTG with vs without KG, but not a massive effect on the overall ORTG because KG played 90.5% of possible possessions in the series.

Defensive numbers are slightly off because while we have the # of possessions for the opponent, we don't have the # of opponent possessions that KG defended. KG's offensive possessions are just used as an estimate for that, so the DRTG figures are technically estimates (but the ORTG figures are not). Again, unless i messed something up lol but i think my methodology makes sense?

I feel bad because I do applaud the work but think the numbers are off one way or another, nba.com uses the possession numbers and the teams off rtg with KG on is 104.8 and overall it’s 103.5, and the on court off rtg for some of them were off

It’s more so just based off the overall team ratings and kgs on court rating mean that his +def rtg should have at least half the absolute value of his +off rtg, or at least approaching it

Yeah I mean every source doesn't count possessions the same way. I'm not familiar with whether nba.com uses a formula to estimate possessions or not but I know pbpstats.com gives exact possession data which is why I used it.

If you go here, you can see Giannis' on/off for the entire 2021 postseason using exact possession figures: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612749&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Playoffs&PlayerIds=203507

Compare this to the table for Giannis I posted above and the numbers are very close despite the defensive numbers being estimates. That's why I posted the figures with some degree of confidence - they line up with pbpstats.com's full postseason on/off, so I don't see why they would be inaccurate for individual series

[Proxy]

12. 2004 Kevin Garnett (2003) (2008):
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2205841&start=40#p100000159
13. 1977 Bill Walton:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2214973&start=40#p100653991
14. 1964 Oscar Robertson (1963?):
I really have no idea on this pick and the next one. Think i'm gonna take his offense over Jerry's combination of offense/defense, i'm starting to believe Oscar was a slight positive defensively rather than a negative like I did before at his and that makes his argument a bit similar to that of Magic's/Steph's, really just more limited by how possible it was to create as much separation as a playmaker cuz of era.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2214211&p=100598026&hilit=Oscar#p100598026
15. 1966 Jerry West (1965):
Way too similar to Oscar in impact based on how I view the two to justify many spaces apart in a list like this for me, one of the most absurd playoff performers and risers statistically, great portability and good defensive impact. May make a bigger post later cuz it looks like he isn't getting in any time soon. I feel his perception would be more optimistic if he didn't have so many years plagued by injuries, 1968 would probably be my year if he didn't play 50 games.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I used pbpstats.com gamelogs

Definitely could have made a mistake but for example, here's how I calculated the Lakers series.

Spoiler:

Garnett's player game log is here: https://www.pbpstats.com/game-logs/nba/player?Season=2003-04&SeasonType=Playoffs&EntityId=708

Timberwolves' team game log is here: https://www.pbpstats.com/game-logs/nba/team?Season=2003-04&SeasonType=Playoffs&EntityId=1610612750

Combining information from both, we get the following:

G1
MIN had 87 possessions and scored 88 points
Garnett had 80 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 105.00
1.05*80 = 84 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G2
MIN had 80 possessions and scored 89 points
Garnett had 70 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 112.86
1.1286*70 = 79 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G3
MIN had 87 possessions and scored 89 points
Garnett had 74 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 109.46
1.0946*74 = 81 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G4
MIN had 86 possessions and scored 85 points
Garnett had 85 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 100.00
1.00*85 = 85 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G5
MIN had 89 possessions and scored 98 points
Garnett had 84 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 109.52
1.0952*84 = 92 points scored with Garnett on the floor

G6
MIN had 89 possessions and scored 90 points
Garnett had 76 possessions and an on-court ORTG of 101.32
1.0132*76 = 77 points scored with Garnett on the floor

So now we sum up

518 total MIN possessions in the series (469 with KG, so 49 without)
539 total MIN points in the series (498 with KG, so 41 without)

539/518 = 104.1 ortg overall
498/469 = 106.2 ortg with kg
41/49 = 83.7 ortg without kg

We see a massive difference in ORTG with vs without KG, but not a massive effect on the overall ORTG because KG played 90.5% of possible possessions in the series.

Defensive numbers are slightly off because while we have the # of possessions for the opponent, we don't have the # of opponent possessions that KG defended. KG's offensive possessions are just used as an estimate for that, so the DRTG figures are technically estimates (but the ORTG figures are not). Again, unless i messed something up lol but i think my methodology makes sense?

I feel bad because I do applaud the work but think the numbers are off one way or another, nba.com uses the possession numbers and the teams off rtg with KG on is 104.8 and overall it’s 103.5, and the on court off rtg for some of them were off

It’s more so just based off the overall team ratings and kgs on court rating mean that his +def rtg should have at least half the absolute value of his +off rtg, or at least approaching it

Yeah I mean every source doesn't count possessions the same way. I'm not familiar with whether nba.com uses a formula to estimate possessions or not but I know pbpstats.com gives exact possession data which is why I used it.

If you go here, you can see Giannis' on/off for the entire 2021 postseason using exact possession figures: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612749&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Playoffs&PlayerIds=203507

Compare this to the table for Giannis I posted above and the numbers are very close despite the defensive numbers being estimates. That's why I posted the figures with some degree of confidence - they line up with pbpstats.com's full postseason on/off, so I don't see why they would be inaccurate for individual series

This is rather odd then, because I think nba.com uses exact possession data, bball ref doesn’t but it’s just easiest to navigate

The total numbers don’t add up though, the timberwolves were -4 with Garnett off the floor, given the possessions with Garnett off the floor and the respective offensive and defensive rtg they would have been -9 with him off the floor by the pbp stats

[DraymondGold]

2) KG is clearly more scalable. The most scalable skills are spacing, passing, finishing, off-ball play, and defense. KG is better in at least 4/5 of these scalable skills, and is commonly considered a top 5 GOAT scalable star. Giannis isn’t.

I'll give you off-ball play and defense (by a hair), but which of these three do you have KG better than Giannis?

Spacing: Teams have to build a wall to stop Giannis because he is such an efficient scorer, creating plentiful open looks for his teammates. What did KG do to create spacing for his teammates?

Passing: The last four seasons Giannis has a 31.2 Assist%, Garnett's peak four year stretch was 24.9 Assist%.

Finishing: Giannis is solidly above Garnett in both peak TS+ (115 to 110) and career TS+ (109 to 103) despite being a notably worse free throw shooter (.718 career vs .789 career) & throwing up 3.5 3PA per game at a 29% clip which both drag down his TS+.

Good question!

I agree, Giannis is likely a better finisher, e.g. as a roll man or lob threat.

But in passing, I have Garnett >> Giannis. Normally looking at Assists/75 or or Assist% might be an okay first-estimate at judging passing, but it's far from what we should use as a final check. Here, the film analysis puts Garnett >> Giannis as a passer. Among most experienced NBA analysts/fans, Garnett is among the best passing big men of all time. Giannis... just isn't.

Why do Garnett's assist numbers look worse? Well, one reason might be that Garnett's pretty universally considered to have the single worst team and worst-fitting team of any player in this tier of peaks. During his peak, his teammates were flat out atrocious. Contrast that to Giannis, who had quite good and well-fitting teammates. Giannis is surrounded by shooters, which not only are a good fit for Giannis' scoring, but also a good fit for Giannis' passing, as drive-and-kick passes are Giannis' greatest strength as a facilitator. He even plays along side a stretch-5 who's among the best spot-up shooting big men in the league.

Rather than redo film analysis that's already done, I'll just re-share what's already been done.

Spoiler:

Here's a video on Giannis in 2019, see 3:08–4:42:

Watch on YouTube

You may counter that Giannis improved as a passer since 2019. Which is true! But although he has improved, improvement doesn't mean solving the issue. He still shows many many of the same limitations (albeit to a slightly smaller scale) even in 2022, when he's supposedly an even better passer than in 2021. See 1:30 in this video:

Watch on YouTube

Giannis Passing
Pros: fantastic driving gravity
Pros: kickout passes
Cons: available passes to cutters and layup passes are often missed
Cons: vision is spotty and mental processing speed is slow
Cons: pick and roll passing is missing
Cons: occasional passing execution is off

Compare that with Garnett:

Spoiler:

See this video, from 14:22-16:03:

Watch on YouTube

Garnett passing
Pros: kickout passing (like Giannis)
Pros: manipulating defense with passing, e.g. passing fakes and lookaways
Pros: passing to cutters (far better than Giannis, although still room for improvement)
Pros: exterior-passing from the post
Pros: interior passing, after drive or post-up
Pros: vision and mental processing speed relative to most other big men


As for spacing, I see Giannis as the better interior spacer and Garnett as the better exterior spacer. Giannis' better interior gravity is pretty well known, so I imagine I don't have to defend this opinion? I see his interior gravity as one of his greatest offensive strengths. I will say, Garnett also has internal gravity (the videos show cases where Garnett was doubled), and I am concerned that Giannis' limited passing limits his ability to leverage his rim gravity into playmaking for teammates. Others have argued that the consistent decline in the Bucks' 3 point shooting in the playoffs is the fault of Giannis' teammates, not him, so I won't belabor the point. But just worth mentioning.

For exterior gravity, Garnett is clearly superior. In their peak playoffs:
10–14 feet: Garnett shot +7.6% better than Giannis
15-19 feet: Garnett shot +7.3% better than Giannis
20-24 feet: Garnett shot +8.4% better than Giannis
25-29 feet: Garnett shot +18.1% better than Giannis
Free throw: Garnett shot +20.4% better than Giannis
Garnett's the better shooter, and it's not close. This is with Garnett having far worse spacers around him, and far fewer offensive co-stars to distract the defense or create off-ball opportunities for Garnett. In today's era, given how historically good Garnett's range is among big men, it's also not unreasonable to think Garnett's efficiency and spacing would improve more by changing his long-midrange shots to 3 point shots.

In terms of scalability, I have external gravity as more scalable than internal gravity. A team's efficiency benefits far more from having multiple 3 point spacers than having multiple rim gravity threats. There's more diminishing returns to internal gravity.

You might argue regardless of diminishing returns alongside better teammates, Giannis still has the overall advantage in the value of his gravity vs Kg's. That's possible. But KG's spacing value is still super valuable. Together with his massively-superior passing, and his better defense / off-ball play, that makes Garnett more portable, at least to me.

And like I mentioned before, I do have resilience concerns for Giannis. People have argued he improves in 2021, and that might be true! But his scoring still declines overall in the 2021/2022 playoffs (his efficiency drops even when accounting for opponent quality), and some of the passing concerns still remain... even if his playoff defense improves, I'm concerned enough about the resilience against good defenses that I'm comfortable taking Garnett > Giannis. No offense to Giannis, he's a fun player to watch and is no doubt a great peak, I just have him a touch below this level. But that's just me! Let me know if you want to discuss more

[jalengreen]

I feel bad because I do applaud the work but think the numbers are off one way or another, nba.com uses the possession numbers and the teams off rtg with KG on is 104.8 and overall it’s 103.5, and the on court off rtg for some of them were off

It’s more so just based off the overall team ratings and kgs on court rating mean that his +def rtg should have at least half the absolute value of his +off rtg, or at least approaching it

Yeah I mean every source doesn't count possessions the same way. I'm not familiar with whether nba.com uses a formula to estimate possessions or not but I know pbpstats.com gives exact possession data which is why I used it.

If you go here, you can see Giannis' on/off for the entire 2021 postseason using exact possession figures: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612749&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Playoffs&PlayerIds=203507

Compare this to the table for Giannis I posted above and the numbers are very close despite the defensive numbers being estimates. That's why I posted the figures with some degree of confidence - they line up with pbpstats.com's full postseason on/off, so I don't see why they would be inaccurate for individual series

This is rather odd then, because I think nba.com uses exact possession data, bball ref doesn’t but it’s just easiest to navigate

The total numbers don’t add up though, the timberwolves were -4 with Garnett off the floor, given the possessions with Garnett off the floor and the respective offensive and defensive rtg they would have been -9 with him off the floor by the pbp stats

https://darrylblackport.com/posts/2019-04-03-why-pbpstats-possession-counts-lower/

found this source on the difference between pbpstats and nba.com's possession data. the creator of pbpstats said he doesnt know for sure why it's different basically but theorizes that nba.com doesn't remove possessions with <2 seconds left on the clock like he does. if that's true i think it's preferrable to remove those possessions but that's personal preference

[MyUniBroDavis]

Yeah I mean every source doesn't count possessions the same way. I'm not familiar with whether nba.com uses a formula to estimate possessions or not but I know pbpstats.com gives exact possession data which is why I used it.

If you go here, you can see Giannis' on/off for the entire 2021 postseason using exact possession figures: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612749&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Playoffs&PlayerIds=203507

Compare this to the table for Giannis I posted above and the numbers are very close despite the defensive numbers being estimates. That's why I posted the figures with some degree of confidence - they line up with pbpstats.com's full postseason on/off, so I don't see why they would be inaccurate for individual series

This is rather odd then, because I think nba.com uses exact possession data, bball ref doesn’t but it’s just easiest to navigate

The total numbers don’t add up though, the timberwolves were -4 with Garnett off the floor, given the possessions with Garnett off the floor and the respective offensive and defensive rtg they would have been -9 with him off the floor by the pbp stats

https://darrylblackport.com/posts/2019-04-03-why-pbpstats-possession-counts-lower/

found this source on the difference between pbpstats and nba.com's possession data. the creator of pbpstats said he doesnt know for sure why it's different basically but theorizes that nba.com doesn't remove possessions with <2 seconds left on the clock like he does. if that's true i think it's preferrable to remove those possessions but that's personal preference

I’d have to check on their shots that happened during last second possessions, but I’d assume more non Garnett possessions would lead to a larger differential not a smaller one though

[jalengreen]

This is rather odd then, because I think nba.com uses exact possession data, bball ref doesn’t but it’s just easiest to navigate

The total numbers don’t add up though, the timberwolves were -4 with Garnett off the floor, given the possessions with Garnett off the floor and the respective offensive and defensive rtg they would have been -9 with him off the floor by the pbp stats

https://darrylblackport.com/posts/2019-04-03-why-pbpstats-possession-counts-lower/

found this source on the difference between pbpstats and nba.com's possession data. the creator of pbpstats said he doesnt know for sure why it's different basically but theorizes that nba.com doesn't remove possessions with <2 seconds left on the clock like he does. if that's true i think it's preferrable to remove those possessions but that's personal preference

I’d have to check on their shots that happened during last second possessions, but I’d assume more non Garnett possessions would lead to a larger differential not a smaller one though

Yeah I'm not sure and I don't really feel like digging super deep into the play-by-play for an answer as to what exactly the difference possession definitions they use are (the link i posted had multiple other potential reasons). But for what pbpstats.com uses, it should work and I'm satisfied with that much tbh