Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #15 - 1965-66 Jerry West

[LA Bird]

RealGM Greatest Peaks List (2022)
1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. 2012-13 LeBron James
3. 1999-00 Shaquille O'Neal
4. 1976-77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. 1966-67 Wilt Chamberlain
6. 2002-03 Tim Duncan
7. 1993-94 Hakeem Olajuwon
8. 1963-64 Bill Russell
9. 1985-86 Larry Bird
10. 1986-87 Magic Johnson
11. 2016-17 Stephen Curry
12. 2003-04 Kevin Garnett
13. 2020-21 Giannis Antetokounmpo
14. 1963-64 Oscar Robertson
15. ?

Spoiler:

Please vote for your 3 highest player peaks and at least one line of reasoning for each of them.

Vote example 1
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

In addition, you can also list other peak season candidates from those three players. This extra step is entirely optional

Vote example 2
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
(1990 Jordan)
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
(2012 LeBron)
(2009 LeBron)
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

You can visit the project thread for further information on why this makes a difference and how the votes will be counted at the end of the round.

Voting for this round will close on Saturday August 6, 9am ET.

[AEnigma]

Preliminary note on Bill Walton: odd to me that we can have 1977 Kareem at #4 and then ten spots later have so few voting for the guy who was basically as good — albeit in far less aesthetically arresting ways. Like, bit of an inverse with Duncan and Garnett, where Walton was the one who won the title yet the gap in peak placement is bigger (and growing) and the Walton votes are fewer. Not saying it is one of those dreaded “inconsistencies” — he did miss games and it was a short peak without much of a real sample — but just a little disappointing as one of his voters to see what had been pretty much the consensus “next” peak after those near unanimous top guys suddenly fall off the board, without any of the impact-based criticisms that we see with Erving.

1. 1976-77 Bill Walton
I think Walton was a brilliant defender with a better intuitive understanding of the game than David Robinson as the next main big, and a close to ideal team hub on offence, similarly to an extent well beyond David Robinson (even though yes David Robinson has a fair bit more to offer as a scorer). Relative to his era, Walton is of course a clearer standout, but that is true for most old players. And I do value proving your ability to bring a team to a title. Hypotheticals are nice, but I know Bill Walton could win a title with the 1977 Trail Blazers, I think there are substantial indicators he would have repeated in 1978, and there is nothing in David Robinson’s history that makes me similarly confident he could do the same (although to be clear, I would give him good odds).
And for the people who care about deferring to prior projects, maybe worth pointing out Walton was on average the next guy picked here.

2. 2007-08 Kobe Bryant
Kobe I think is an interesting profile. In terms of raw value to his team, he never really hit the same heights as Dwyane Wade. But I think Wade is a lot more innately limiting in building a championship team; deserves his due for the 2006 playoff run, certainly, but I personally am not just gunning for the best individual playoff runs. Although I do make note of them. Kobe seems to fit a little more naturally with other passers and non-spacers and can anchor strong title teams and playoff offences, so giving him the advantage.

3. Dwyane Wade a.) 2009 b.) 2010 c.) 2006
Wade’s scoring resilience at high volume coupled with elite guard defence and extreme creation rates put him at a level of two-way impact few of his size ever reached (if we are strict about height, potentially none ever did). I think his game was marginally more complete later, but 2006 is pretty close and ended in a title, so no qualms if that is the year which is ultimately selected. Fit concerns lower him below Kobe for me, and I go back and forth versus Kawhi for similar reasons, but even on a random team I would take him over almost every other perimetre player. Like Julius Erving, there was no real way to deny his drives, but Erving was a lesser passer and ballhandler and only a disputably better defender while playing in an era more structurally forgiving of those limitations.

For potential tiebreaker purposes: Jerry West > David Robinson
David Robinson to me compares more to Nate Thurmond if we track him backward. Better offensive player, but Thurmond is one of the guys I am fine putting above him defensively. And although I see an argument that peak Nate Thurmond maybe had more absolute value in that specific era than West had… it is a tenuous argument because injuries kept Thurmond out of the playoffs during some of his peak years and because his offensive limitations meant he never did anything without Rick Barry (or 1964 Wilt lol) when he was healthy, even if I think he was more valuable than Barry in 1967 and possibly/probably? 1973. Not saying that to disrespect Robinson: he would become more valuable than Thurmond pretty quickly, if Thurmond were ever better, and he almost certainly could have won titles in place of like Reed, Gilmore, or Cowens, for example. I do not see a major disparity here, but again, problem with Robinson has always been that he has basically no history of real postseason elevation, nothing like 1963 Boston series Robertson or (pick a few random Finals years) West. And to bring it back to Walton, nothing like that Finals either.

This is what gets me about Robinson. It does not matter whether his offensive game is consistently mitigated in the playoffs in basically any situation other than against outright bad defences lacking any real post presence (and that despite his supposedly great passing, he somehow also has no real ability to create for others when doubled either). It does not matter that defensively — his calling card — he has terrible matchups with any modern-looking offence from his own era more akin of what we see from Shaq than of any other top tier defender (but oh yeah his modern translation would be great). It does not matter that his “postseason data giant” era only came about by primarily sharing on-court minutes with our #6 peak and then getting the easier matchups when they were staggered. His team relied on him and in the regular season that worked pretty well and that makes him amazing, but then in the postseason, hey, almost no one can be relied on like that in the postseason, stop being unfair.

Like, this is the Rudy Gobert argument with extra offensive production. Gobert goes from being by the numbers a consistent top five ”value” guy to being nowhere close to that in the postseason, but no one one actually argues he should be above lower regular season “value” players like Luka just because oh it is unfair to expect him to maintain in the postseason when his team relies on him that much. What if we gave Gobert the scoring ability of Demar Derozan? Is he a top two or three player now? Or is he still ultimately a player whose productive regular season offence cannot be trusted in the playoffs and whose elite regular season defence can be mitigated more than lesser value regular season defenders like Draymond or Giannis?

Further criticisms taken from past projects available here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2216962&start=40#p100789867

May as well touch on Julius Erving. First, I do like him and think his 1976 season and especially postseason is incredible. Not really concerned by the the on/off data; his best on/off years were 1982 and 1983, but I do not see any real case that he was a better player in the absolute than he was in even 1977 (which shows itself in the postseason once he stops competing with McGinnis for touches and control). His WOWYR stuff is fair. My issue is more about era translation. I really cannot take him over Kobe, Kawhi, or Wade because it is easier for me to envision all of them replicating his success in his era than vice versa. And then you have Kevin Durant, who never had a series as impressive as the 1976 Finals but otherwise wins pretty much every other direct comparison. I do not know, it is just a tough sell. I honestly doubt he is even a better talent than Tracy McGrady, but in that comparison at least he has a much more easily interpretable postseason sample. I do not know why this project is suddenly where Erving has been kicked out of the top fifteen conversation, but that seems more like an indictment of the processes that made him garner so much support in prior projects. I mean, I read through those: not a lot of analysis beyond the pretty box score when it came to Erving.

[CharityStripe34]

1. Bob Pettit (1959) : A man much forgotten in the annals of NBA lore, but whose entire career was almost one extended peak. He had an awesome season the year before, even leading the Hawks to their lone title over the vaunted Russell/Cousy Celtics. But his following year was his second MVP season with ridiculous averages of 29-16-4. He's the guy who essentially created/defined the PF position once he bulked up and added a long-distance jumpshot when mostly everyone was shooting hook-shots and set shots. 1959 he also led the league with 14.8 WS.

Honorable mention: (1958, 1962)

2. Dwyane Wade (2006): Others have noted the brilliant season Wade had with his two-way impact. I went back and forth with Jerry West and Wade and barely chose Wade over 1966 Jerry West. Probably because his brilliant run in the playoffs that resulted in a Finals win over, perhaps, a superior Dallas squad that season. 27-6-7 on over 50% from the floor and nearly 2 steals a game. He made All-NBA second team but I personally would've put him a hair ahead of Kobe Bryant (who admittedly had a Hamburger Helper squad that year). If Wade had his 2009 regular season combined with his 2006 post-season, it's arguable for the greatest 2-guard season ever.

Honorable mention: (2009, 2010)

3. Moses Malone (1983): This was super difficult deciding between West, Robinson and Moses but I went with Moses since this was maybe his finest season ever and most impactful, albeit on a really good roster. Demolishing everyone including a really good Bucks team and obviously a dynastic Lakers team in the Finals, outplaying Kareem soundly. Led the playoffs in win shares and upped his averages from 25-15 to 26-16 with 2 blks per game. An argument could be made that between 1979-1983 Moses was the best, or at least most dominant, player in the NBA. This season for Philly was a bit similar to the Spurs getting revenge on the Heat in 2014 after coming up short the year before, as Philly lost to the Lakers the year prior in the Finals.

Honorable mention: (1979, 1982)

Narrowly missed the cut: Jerry West (1966), David Robinson (1995), Kobe Bryant (2008), Charles Barkley (1993)

[Dutchball97]

1. 1976 Julius Erving - Dr J had one of the most dominant years ever in North American pro basketball in the final year of the ABA. Where you rank him mostly depends on how good you think the ABA was towards its end. I'd say I'm probably somewhere in the middle. With the likes of Artis Gilmore, Dan Issel, Bobby Jones and George Gervin the ABA had become a serious competitor to the NBA but it didn't become on the same level just yet and since even the mid-70s NBA is generally considered as a relatively weak era, the mid-70s ABA isn't one of the strongest eras either. Overall though this is still a very complete season and it remains a fact you can only beat who is put in front of you. What especially helps him out here is the Nets roster besides Dr J himself wasn't particularly special, which is a huge contrast to the other guys I'm considering around this spot.

2. 1983 Moses Malone - Moses wasn't the best defender but in 83 he does look pretty impressive on that end, while his offense has always been strong. He's hurt somewhat by playing on a historically stacked team but it's hard to go against him winning MVP by a landslide and leading the 76ers to a dominant title. I might be somewhat influenced by winning bias here but we have rather incomplete advanced stats for the early 80s so I'd rather not put too much emphasis on Moses not having an overwhelmingly high BPM.

3. 2006 Dwyane Wade - While only coming 6th in MVP voting, I'd argue he was every bit as good as the guys above him in a year with a pretty open MVP race without a clear best player. Then in the play-offs Wade went off by leading a decent but unspectacular supporting cast to a title, while being the best player in every series including against the #2 and #3 SRS teams in the Pistons and Mavs. I'm probably a bit more skewed in this towards the post-season than most but I don't think we should underestimate just how impressive this season was due to his impact metrics not jumping off the page as much as some of the other candidates.

[falcolombardi]

1-1950 George Mikan (1951)

I am far from a mikan expert so i dont claim to know this too well.

I am honestly just thinking that thus guy dominated nba basketball arguably the most out of anyone at a time and is the last player to lead a dinasty or be the best player in the world for a multi year stretch of time and not be in the list already.

Just seems like a fair spot for him tbh.

2-1977 bill walton

I was unsure how much to punish durability issues in a year wgere he was mostly healthy other wise. Which gets into philosophical territory

Are we evaluating exactlt what happened or what is more likely to happen out of 100 simulations, example 2017 kawhi is a lot less likely to get injured in the playoffs than 1977 walto. but kawhi was the one to actually get injurrd through no fault of his own

Which one deserves more penalizstion here for missing part of the playoffs? I will take the approach of "what happened" (sorrt kawhi) as unfair as it is it just makes more sense to evaluate peak years as they actually happened

That tangent aside. Walton is just one od the most impressive peaks of all time. Led a team withput stand out talent to a ring. Had monster impact signals (for what is available for the era) up there with anyone, beat great teams and has a fascinating 67'chamberlain esque profile

A all time defender who can be the center of a strong offense

3-2006 wade (2010,2009)

One of the most impressive title runs left. Took a solid but unremarkable cast (shaq was easily past his superstar prime imo) to beat two elite teams and win a ring that needed every last point, rebound and assist he got (and he got a ton of them)

I see this as a 2009 lebron-lite season tbh amd i have that one as the goat peak

I have west and oscar (already picked) in consideration over wade but i lean wade as i am morr familiar with his strenghts and weaknesses.

I think kobe is in the same ballpark soon as west/oscar snd then i probably will include robinson amd julius

[Samurai]

1. Doctor J 1976. Yes, it was in the ABA. The final year of that league before the merger in 77 and at that point, the ABA was loaded with future Hall of Famers such as David Thompson, Artis Gilmore, George Gervin, Bobby Jones and Dan Issel. No plumbers or milkmen in that group. And Dr J put up one of the best all-around seasons ever. Led the league in scoring at 29.3 ppg. Fifth in rebounding at 11.0 rpg. Seventh in assists at 5.0 apg. Third in steal at 2.5 spg. Seventh in blocks at 1.9 bpg. Tenth in field goal percentage at .507% and sixth in 3-point % at 33%. And led the league in PER, Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, WS/48, Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and Usage %. Off the top of my head, the only other player who dominated across that many aspects of the game might be 51 Mikan but we don't have any idea what his blocks or steal numbers were and I'd guess that the competition level in the 76 ABA was higher than the 51 NBA.

2. Jerry West 1966. Since I listed Oscar, I have to include West; they just kinda go together like peanut butter and jelly. Aside from MJ, West may be the best combination of offense and defense of any guard in history. He was the complete package on offense - tremendous jump shooter from the outside, excellent driving to the basket (his .564 free throw rate rivaled some of Harden's top 5 seasons), was fifth in assists/game (led the league in 72), and led the league in TS% at .573 (without a 3-point line!). No question in my mind that he would have been on the All-Defensive team if such an award were around; the year after Russell retired, he stated that West was not just the best defensive guard in the league but the best defensive player. Granted, his comment may have been a swipe at his rival Wilt, but in a league where Thurmond, DeBusschere, and Frazier were running around it is still quite a compliment. His only real knock career-wise is his durability, but he played 79 games in 66 and his 3,218 minutes were good for 7th best in the league. And as good as West was in his time, he played in arguably the worst era for his particular skillset; he would have been even more spectacular if he were playing in today's game where players are raised to spam as many 3's as possible. But since I can only rank players based on what they actually accomplished and not what they might have accomplished if they were born in a different year, I have him listed 3rd here.

3. David Robinson 1994. This was primarily between the Admiral and Mikan, two great centers who played over 40 years apart. I have both over 77 Walton due to durability; Mikan played all 68 games (it was a 68 game season) and the Admiral played in 80 of 82 RS games, whereas Walton had 17 games in which he scored 0 points, grabbed 0 boards, set 0 screens and completed 0 passes. As great as he was in the other 65, that's too big a gap when we are comparing to guys that gave comparable impact for so many more minutes. While I don't think 94 was quite DRob's defensive peak and his rebounding was clearly below his peak years, he was still All Defensive 2nd team that season and it was his best offensive season. If he were better than 14th best in rebounds/game, this would have been an easier selection for me. I was set to vote for Mikan but I always struggle with how much to ding him for his era. So I flipped a coin and D-Rob won the flip! But Mikan will be my next selection.

[capfan33]

1. 1966 West
The best scorer before Kareem and arguably one of the 5 best scorers ever if you give more weight to the postseason (which I do), West was ahead of his time to say the least. To me he still has the great pull-up jumper ever and had an incredible bag of tricks, especially relative to other players of his era. He was also an excellent passer and while his passing and scoring peak didn't coincide, he was still excellent in that regard in 66 (according to elgee's passing rating metric, he actually peaked a bit higher than Oscar). Excellent rebounding guard due to him being the same height as Kobe/MJ with a 6'9 wingspan and a reported max vertical in the neighborhood of ~36 inches, he was also an underrated athlete. Finally, from most available evidence he is one of the greatest defensive guards ever. He was a menace in the passing lanes as well as being an excellent shotblocker and man defender.

2. 77 Walton
Lack of a large sample-size makes it hard to rank Walton, like a more extreme example of CP3, but I think around here is ultimately where I'll put him. I do think he get's overrated to an extent when people talk about him essentially being Kareem's equal because he was in close to an ideal ceiling raiser situation and comparing his impact to Kareem's in 77 specifically is an apples to oranges comparison if I've ever seen one.

With that being said, his overall skillset is undeniable. Basically a less athletic Bill Russell, his defensive activity was absurd and he has a demonstrably enormous impact on that end. Combine that with being the 2nd greatest passing center ever and you get an incredibly portable, scalable and synergistic player. However, his scoring was nothing to write home about and in a situation where he needs to be the primary or even 2nd best scorer on a team I'm skeptical of his ability to meet that criteria, which does count for something. His relative lack of athleticism could also be a problem in more recent times, I have more questions about his defense in today's game than say Hakeem.


3. 1994 Robinson
Similar to KG in many ways, I ultimately have him below KG largely because I like KG's skillset and baseline impact more and think he's a bit more portable. While Robinson was an incredible regular season player and is one of the greatest athletes ever, I'm not a fan of how basic Robinson's scoring game seems to be. The empirical evidence suggests it made him very predictable and easy to gameplan against. Some of the posts regarding Robinson in the last thread reminded me of just how bad Robinson's scoring was in the playoffs, and while scoring isn't everything, it's hard to just hand-wave away how poorly Robinson's scoring seemed to translate to the playoffs. Add onto this his lack of passing/playmaking, even compared to someone like Hakeem, his scoring ability becomes even more problematic.

Moreover, his defensive impact also seemed ot have issues translating to the playoffs, and while this may not be as conclusive, the fact that one can even call into question his ace skill in a playoff atmosphere is a major issue when his playoff offense is conclusively problematic. Overall, he was an extraordinary regular season player with severe postseason limitations and with that mix a 16-20 ranking sounds about right.

[falcolombardi]

Copy paste my previous question

I was unsure how much to punish durability issues in a year wgere he was mostly healthy other wise. Which gets into philosophical territory

Are we evaluating exactlt what happened or what is more likely to happen out of 100 simulations, example 2017 kawhi is a lot less likely to get injured in the playoffs than 1977 walto. but kawhi was the one to actually get injurrd through no fault of his own

Which one deserves more penalizstion here for missing part of the playoffs? I will take the approach of "what happened" (sorry kawhi) as unfair as it is it just makes more sense to evaluate peak years as they actually happened

What do you think?

[AEnigma]

Copy paste my previous question

I was unsure how much to punish durability issues in a year wgere he was mostly healthy other wise. Which gets into philosophical territory

Are we evaluating exactlt what happened or what is more likely to happen out of 100 simulations, example 2017 kawhi is a lot less likely to get injured in the playoffs than 1977 walto. but kawhi was the one to actually get injurrd through no fault of his own

Which one deserves more penalizstion here for missing part of the playoffs? I will take the approach of "what happened" (sorry kawhi) as unfair as it is it just makes more sense to evaluate peak years as they actually happened

What do you think?

Well, you set your own philosophy, as does each voter. Every person voting for Walton or Kawhi is at least implicitly not penalising their health much. Perhaps some are taking the approach that if Walton played an extra fifteen games then they would have voted him even higher; that is personally not my approach. I can acknowledge sample size concerns, and there are players for whom I have sample size concerns, but nothing in how Walton played over that two-year period (or while in uni, or perhaps not even later in his career) gives me concern that his postseason was some sudden fluke (contrast with 2020 Bubble Davis, where the defence does not look too abnormal but the shooting splits absolutely do).

For me, I am more concerned if a player clearly struggles as a postseason goes on. That was not really Walton’s issue. That is a little more clearly Kawhi’s issue… but even still, he made it work in 2019 and was always moderately healthy in the playoffs up until 2017, so it is not as if he were inevitably doomed in 2017. Contrast with Embiid, who legitimately seems to tire out, or Chris Paul, who in 2021 finally showed his body is indeed physically capable of holding up for a Finals run but otherwise has a pretty storied history of either burning out or outright breaking down when faced with a few longer or tougher series.

Others are obviously more focused on regular season production. I said last thread that I personally like 1968 West — but he tends to be something of a non-starter in these projects because he only played fifty games, and that automatically disqualifies him for a lot of voters relative to 1966 (which is pretty much just as good and arguably features an even more impressive Finals). If we are talking MVP awards, sure, games played is a good way to accumulate value advantages. For peaks? No, twenty missed games is not really going to sway me if you still performed well in the playoffs. And once in the playoffs, well, I never want to take a position that I would value 2017 Kawhi more if the Rockets made a few more bench threes when Kawhi was on the bench in games 3 and 5 and won (thus precluding any injury penalty).

[falcolombardi]

Copy paste my previous question

I was unsure how much to punish durability issues in a year wgere he was mostly healthy other wise. Which gets into philosophical territory

Are we evaluating exactlt what happened or what is more likely to happen out of 100 simulations, example 2017 kawhi is a lot less likely to get injured in the playoffs than 1977 walto. but kawhi was the one to actually get injurrd through no fault of his own

Which one deserves more penalizstion here for missing part of the playoffs? I will take the approach of "what happened" (sorry kawhi) as unfair as it is it just makes more sense to evaluate peak years as they actually happened

What do you think?

Well, you set your own philosophy, as does each voter. Every person voting for Walton or Kawhi is at least implicitly not penalising their health much. Perhaps some are taking the approach that if Walton played an extra fifteen games then they would have voted him even higher; that is personally not my approach. I can acknowledge sample size concerns, and there are players for whom I have sample size concerns, but nothing in how Walton played over that two-year period (or while in uni, or perhaps not even later in his career) gives me concern that his postseason was some sudden fluke (contrast with 2020 Bubble Davis, where the defence does not look too abnormal but the shooting splits absolutely do).

For me, I am more concerned if a player clearly struggles as a postseason goes on. That was not really Walton’s issue. That is a little more clearly Kawhi’s issue… but even still, he made it work in 2019 and was always moderately healthy in the playoffs up until 2017, so it is not as if he were inevitably doomed in 2017. Contrast with Embiid, who legitimately seems to tire out, or Chris Paul, who in 2021 finally showed his body is indeed physically capable of holding up for a Finals run but otherwise has a pretty storied history of either burning out or outright breaking down when faced with a few longer or tougher series.

Others are obviously more focused on regular season production. I said last thread that I personally like 1968 West — but he tends to be something of a non-starter in these projects because he only played fifty games, and that automatically disqualifies him for a lot of voters relative to 1966 (which is pretty much just as good and arguably features an even more impressive Finals). If we are talking MVP awards, sure, games played is a good way to accumulate value advantages. For peaks? No, twenty missed games is not really going to sway me if you still performed well in the playoffs. And once in the playoffs, well, I never want to take a position that I would value 2017 Kawhi more if the Rockets made a few more bench threes when Kawhi was on the bench in games 3 and 5 and won (thus precluding any injury penalty).

I cannot agree enough with this part

I have discussed before in a 16 vs 17 kawhi comparision how ridiculous it was that if kawhi lost to the rockets he would never have got injured and then wouldnt get the playoffs injury penalty for missing a series. Even when both played the same amount of rounds and 17 kawhi actually played more 3rd round than 16 kawhi

There are a lot of situations in basketball where a player who just -didnt play- would have beneffited in public opinion

And that is obviously a issue

[ardee]

1. 1977 Bill Walton

Has everyone forgotten about him? In 1977 and 1978, here's the Blazers' record with and without him:

1977 Walton healthy: 44-21
1977 Walton hurt: 5-12

1978 Walton healthy: 48-10
1978 Walton hurt: 10-14

74.7% win rate while he's healthy, and 36.5% while he's hurt. And that's over a pretty big sample size.

Quite honestly I see him on a similar level to Russell, whom I have at 9. Just incredible defensive impact, if you watch the Finals against the Sixers he has the defensive equivalent of a scorer having a 20 point quarter. The commentators were freaking out and screaming "they cannot find a way to score on Bill Walton!"

I think him and Steph are pretty debatable.

2. 2008 Kobe Bryant (HM: 2006)

I've spoken about Kobe's raw impact quite a bit in different threads. In this season specifically, he led the Lakers to a 7.34 SRS with just 27 games of Pau and 35 games of Bynum. Odom was the only other player on that team who could generate much of his own offense. The rest of the rotation consisting of Fisher, Vladimir Radmanovic, Farmar, Vujacic and Turiaf doesn't exactly scream a 7.3 SRS cast.

On top of that, he put together a Jordan-esque Playoff run. 32-6-6 on 60% TS against 3 50 win teams in the Western conference, including a 6.9 SRS Jazz team and a -5.7 defensively Spurs team. His Finals weren't anything to write home about but honestly were not any worse than Jordan against similarly good defensive teams (the '93 Knicks for example).

3. 2009 Dwyane Wade (HM: 2006)

Him and Kobe at their peaks are fairly close as players. I do think Kobe was more impactful though, when you look at the 2006 Lakers vs the 2009 Heat by SRS given the similar supporting casts. Wade was likely better defensively but that's canceled out by Kobe's superior portability given shooting and off-ball play.

Next would be Jokic, Dirk and Robinson for me.

[The Master]

Sorry to interrupt since I'm not a part of this voting (I haven't logged in for a while and missed the beginning of this project), but since I have a data due to discussion in the other thread, I've decided to post this little take. I'm not saying that he definitely should be voted at #15, this is all very close in my mind to have huge margin for personal preference, but - ironically - even though I'm not a fan of Moses career wise due to his longevity and skillset, simultaneously I find him quite underrated in these peak projects, at least in the last one in terms of his spot in which he landed back then (outside of top20).

+15.6 net in 65-17/7.53 SRS team
RS MVP/Finals MVP
Dominant PS run
4 games missed

Obviously, Sixers were extremely deep as a team, but these are Steph Curry-like numbers (8.2 on/off on offense, -7.4 on/off on defense in top5 team in both O&D) that were backed up by double MVP on a historically great team. In general, this is some historical outlier in terms of floor/ceiling raising to have in short span seasons like '81 (getting one of the weakest teams ever to the finals, and getting an MVP the next year) and '83 (65-17 and 12-1 in the playoffs, being an anchor of one of the most dominating teams ever), considering sooooo different environment and extremely quick adaptation to the latter. I do believe that these numbers answer some constant question marks regarding Moses, e.g. his defense and versatility (one of the best blocking stats in his career, in #5/#1 D in RS/PS, with great on/off numbers on D in RS -- it's hard to imagine that he wasn't at least pretty good that year). At some point, even though I know that portability is some major issue in evaluating Moses, you have to take domination over peers into account in these inter-era comparisons.

Again, sorry to interrupt, but that's something I've had on my mind for quite some time, actually since checking out the results of the last project.

[iggymcfrack]

1. 2021/22 Nikola Jokic- Best regular season ever by PER and BPM, 5th best postseason ever by PER with impact numbers that dominate the competition much more than the box score metrics. Incredible playmaking as Jokic combines the best passing from a big man ever with a surprisingly low amount of time holding the ball for such an offensive hub. He also has the highest RAPTOR since that started being tracked in 2013/14.

2. 1995/96 David Robinson- Led the league in PER in both the regular season AND postseason while anchoring the 3rd best defense in the league. Early impact metrics had him neck and neck with Michael Jordan for best player in the league. When Robinson missed the vast majority of the following season, the Spurs defense went from 3rd/29 to 29th/29. They were 9 points worse per 100 possessions. The following season when he returned, the defense improved 13 points per 100 possessions. His defensive impact vastly outpaced his box score value and you can argue that at this point in his career, he was right there with anyone else in the history of the league for most valuable defensive players. I have a hard time believing that Bill Russell ever peaked higher than David Robinson for instance since Robinson had such a strong offensive game while providing at least 95% of the same value on defense.

3. 2010/11 Dirk Nowitzki- In 2 strong RAPM samples, he ranked incredibly high finishing 1st overall in the NBAShotCharts site which spanned from 2010-2022 and he also ranked #3 in the 97-14 sample on Yahoo behind 2 LeBron years and one year from Tim Duncan. The Mavericks were approximately a -6 with him on the bench in both the regular season and postseason and yet, he led them to sweep Kobe and Pau in the first round and beat a superteam of Wade, Bosh, and LeBron that many thought was the best team ever established at the time.

[falcolombardi]

1. 1977 Bill Walton

Has everyone forgotten about him? In 1977 and 1978, here's the Blazers' record with and without him:

1977 Walton healthy: 44-21
1977 Walton hurt: 5-12

1978 Walton healthy: 48-10
1978 Walton hurt: 10-14

74.7% win rate while he's healthy, and 36.5% while he's hurt. And that's over a pretty big sample size.

Quite honestly I see him on a similar level to Russell, whom I have at 9. Just incredible defensive impact, if you watch the Finals against the Sixers he has the defensive equivalent of a scorer having a 20 point quarter. The commentators were freaking out and screaming "they cannot find a way to score on Bill Walton!"

I think him and Steph are pretty debatable.

2. 2008 Kobe Bryant (HM: 2006)

I've spoken about Kobe's raw impact quite a bit in different threads. In this season specifically, he led the Lakers to a 7.34 SRS with just 27 games of Pau and 35 games of Bynum. Odom was the only other player on that team who could generate much of his own offense. The rest of the rotation consisting of Fisher, Vladimir Radmanovic, Farmar, Vujacic and Turiaf doesn't exactly scream a 7.3 SRS cast.

On top of that, he put together a Jordan-esque Playoff run. 32-6-6 on 60% TS against 3 50 win teams in the Western conference, including a 6.9 SRS Jazz team and a -5.7 defensively Spurs team. His Finals weren't anything to write home about but honestly were not any worse than Jordan against similarly good defensive teams (the '93 Knicks for example).

3. 2009 Dwyane Wade (HM: 2006)

Him and Kobe at their peaks are fairly close as players. I do think Kobe was more impactful though, when you look at the 2006 Lakers vs the 2009 Heat by SRS given the similar supporting casts. Wade was likely better defensively but that's canceled out by Kobe's superior portability given shooting and off-ball play.

Next would be Jokic, Dirk and Robinson for me.

Are they that similar? I dunno. Maybe is because i am high on lamar odom impact but i dont think heat had anyone on that level helping wade in 2009

[f4p]

Copy paste my previous question

I was unsure how much to punish durability issues in a year wgere he was mostly healthy other wise. Which gets into philosophical territory

Are we evaluating exactlt what happened or what is more likely to happen out of 100 simulations, example 2017 kawhi is a lot less likely to get injured in the playoffs than 1977 walto. but kawhi was the one to actually get injurrd through no fault of his own

Which one deserves more penalizstion here for missing part of the playoffs? I will take the approach of "what happened" (sorry kawhi) as unfair as it is it just makes more sense to evaluate peak years as they actually happened

What do you think?

i can't punish someone for a cheap shot. then you are just rewarding their opponent for doing something no one else would be bush league enough to do. if someone shoved jordan out of the air in the 1991 finals and he broke his wrist, he'd probably get penalized in a project like this but i don't think he should. now if he just tore his acl, well then i guess that's just unfortunate and i would count it as a 100 out of 100 event.

[f4p]

Sorry to interrupt since I'm not a part of this voting (I haven't logged in for a while and missed the beginning of this project), but since I have a data due to discussion in the other thread, I've decided to post this little take. I'm not saying that he definitely should be voted at #15, this is all very close in my mind to have huge margin for personal preference, but - ironically - even though I'm not a fan of Moses career wise due to his longevity and skillset, simultaneously I find him quite underrated in these peak projects, at least in the last one in terms of his spot in which he landed back then (outside of top20).

+15.6 net in 65-17/7.53 SRS team
RS MVP/Finals MVP
Dominant PS run
4 games missed

Obviously, Sixers were extremely deep as a team, but these are Steph Curry-like numbers (8.2 on/off on offense, -7.4 on/off on defense in top5 team in both O&D) that were backed up by double MVP on a historically great team. In general, this is some historical outlier in terms of floor/ceiling raising to have in short span seasons like '81 (getting one of the weakest teams ever to the finals, and getting an MVP the next year) and '83 (65-17 and 12-1 in the playoffs, being an anchor of one of the most dominating teams ever), considering sooooo different environment and extremely quick adaptation to the latter. I do believe that these numbers answer some constant question marks regarding Moses, e.g. his defense and versatility (one of the best blocking stats in his career, in #5/#1 D in RS/PS, with great on/off numbers on D in RS -- it's hard to imagine that he wasn't at least pretty good that year). At some point, even though I know that portability is some major issue in evaluating Moses, you have to take domination over peers into account in these inter-era comparisons.

Again, sorry to interrupt, but that's something I've had on my mind for quite some time, actually since checking out the results of the last project.

Thanks for the net numbers. Yeah, I get people holding Moses back for certain things in overall career value, but it seems to bleed over into peak projects. From '79 to '83, this is a guy who liked to chew gum and kick ass, and he always seemed to be out of gum. Finals in '81 through Kareem and the Lakers. 31 and 15 on a team with a 97 pace in 1982! Then just a beast season as far and away the best guy on a dominant regular season and postseason team. Like, this is the thing peaks are made of.

[f4p]

...But I'm still not putting him over 2017 Kawhi.

1. 2017 Kawhi (alternate 2019)

This is an excellent regular season with a monster playoffs where he showed that his playoff resilience didn't even care about facing the greatest roster ever, only to be taken out on one of the more famous cheap shots in recent memory. A full WCF would make people like this season more and I can't blame him for a cheap shot injury. 2017 Kawhi wins on lots of teams that had guys who will be listed above him here:

Kawhi's 31.5 PER is 13th all time based on 100 MP and 8th all time for multi-series playoffs. His WS/48 of .314 is 9th all time based on 100 MP and 6th all time for multi-series playoffs. And that's with 1954 mikan included above him. Even with very generous 100 MP and 20 PPG limits, his TS% of 67.2% is 24th all-time. For 200 MP and 24 PPG, it jumps to 6th, and one of the people ahead of him is himself.

If this was a one year phenomenom, I might understand the hesitancy. But "Kawhi puts up huge playoff performance" is not a one year phenomenom. If we are truly talking about peaks, there aren't many higher than 2017 playoffs Kawhi.

2. 1983 Moses Malone (alternate 1982)

Moses may not be this board's cup of tea. He doesn't play an aesthetically pleasing type of basketball. He doesn't always find the open man or protect the rim. He doesn't do the things impact metrics love. Just give him the ball and get out of the way. Get out of his way even more if a rebound was to be had. I tend to think of the NBA as much simpler and more primitive the further back you go. You guard your guy, he guards you. Possessions weren't valued like now. People weren't breaking down film and doing analytics on their team strategy. Sometimes an ass-kicker like Moses was what you needed (and sometimes you still do).
I just watched a highlight from Game 2 in 1981 against the Lakers, which the Lakers actually won. Kareem played well but he never looked like he wanted to guard Moses. Malone would get the ball against whoever in the post and, even if a double came, he just got to the basket. They didn't show a lot of rebounds, but Moses did get a few impressive blocks. There's nothing pretty about his game except the result. Anyway, back to the regularly scheduled copy and paste...

Fo' Fo' Fo'. Led the league in regular season PER and WS48 while putting up 24.5 ppg and 15.3 rpg and winning MVP. Then led the playoffs in PER (25.7) and WS48 (0.260) while putting up 26 ppg and 15.8 rpg on 58.7 TS%. In the Finals, he demolished (35 year old) Kareem with 25.8 ppg and 18.0 rpg in a sweep. I was actually just looking at this season to see where I might put it and then convinced myself when I looked at the rest of the Sixers in the playoffs. After Moses at 25.7 PER and 0.260 WS48, the next highest was Maurice Cheeks at 17.3 PER and Bobby Jones at 0.164 WS48 (Dr J really fell off in the playoffs). That puts Moses as far and away the best player in arguably the most dominant playoff run ever. One that he called before it happened just to make it more impressive. This isn't Shaq with Kobe or KD/Steph all having each other's backs in dominant 1-loss runs (and as far as I know, Moses didn't have Dr. J injure anybody to keep his team from losing more than once in the playoffs). Here are 6 dominant title runs I could think of off the top of my head and the separation between the #1 and #2 player on those teams, sorted by WS48 differential:




We can see that for the 2001 Lakers, 2017 Warriors, and 1999 Spurs, the #1 and #2 were practically identical. Except for BPM, Moses ends up there with MJ as being easily the best player on his team. And for what it's worth, BPM had Moses as the 4th best Sixer in the regular season, almost 3 behind the team leader, so that shows how much more it liked him in the postseason that he led the team. This may have been a guy who joined a stacked team, but it ended up a one man wrecking crew.

Also, 1982 Moses averaged 31.1/14.7 playing on the second slowest paced team in the league, with only a 97 pace.

Moses gets disrespected enough on all-time lists, a 3-time MVP with a side hustle of smacking Kareem around in the playoffs shouldn't get the same on peak lists.

3. 2006 Dwyane Wade (alternate 2009)

I'm a floor raising kind of guy I guess, which doesn't seem typical on this board. People who have everything put on them and come up big in the biggest moments with little to no margin of error impress me more than ceiling raisers putting the finishing touches on an already great team. It just seems like a more common problem to solve throughout NBA history than what to do with all this extra talent. Wade had a very good 27/7/6 regular season as a 3rd year player but obviously this is about the playoffs. On one of the jankiest looking title rosters you'll ever see, on a team where Antoine Walker played the 2nd most playoff minutes and White Chocolate played the 4th most, and Shaq was often getting outplayed by Zo, Wade saved his best moments for the biggest series.

Shot 61.7% in the ECF (68.4 TS%!!) against a still very good Detroit team that had just held Lebron to 81 ppg in the previous series. 26.7/5.5/5.2 looks even better when you realize the pace was 83.8. And then of course there are the Finals. Did he shoot 2 to 3 to 40 more free throws than he should have? Sure, but free throw totals were pretty elevated that year so his totals are only sort of absurd. Put up 34.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and 2.7 spg on 57.2 TS% while maybe leading the best overall Finals comeback ever. Weirdly, the only team that has probably come closer to losing the Finals before winning is also a team with Wade in the 2013 Finals (with 3rd probably also including Wade in the 2011 Finals). The Heat were down 2-0 and down 13 in the 4th quarter of Game 3. That's dangerously close to "1, 2, 3 Cancun!" time and instead Wade just went crazy and put up 42, 36, 43, and 36 in the next 4 games. In a series with a pace of 90! With 3 of the games decided by 1, 2, and 3. In other words, turn those 42/43 games into just 39 point games and the Mavs are celebrating. Efficiency may not be crazy but on that volume with such a weird, offensively limited roster around him against a very solid defense, this is perhaps the best Finals performance ever by anybody not named Lebron or Jordan. It's a title snatched out of thin air that very few players can say they would have been able to pull off. This is a peaks project and it's hard to peak much higher.




I don't really get putting any David Robinson seasons over Jokic 2022. Jokic has conventional and impact advanced stats on lock in the regular season and, if playoff results concern you, then DRob was -8.7 PER, -10.5 TS%, and -65% WS48! While losing to a good but hardly legendary lower-seeded +4.1 SRS Jazz team that got worked in the conference finals.

[AEnigma]

Sorry to interrupt since I'm not a part of this voting (I haven't logged in for a while and missed the beginning of this project), but since I have a data due to discussion in the other thread, I've decided to post this little take. I'm not saying that he definitely should be voted at #15, this is all very close in my mind to have huge margin for personal preference, but - ironically - even though I'm not a fan of Moses career wise due to his longevity and skillset, simultaneously I find him quite underrated in these peak projects, at least in the last one in terms of his spot in which he landed back then (outside of top20).

+15.6 net in 65-17/7.53 SRS team
RS MVP/Finals MVP
Dominant PS run
4 games missed

Obviously, Sixers were extremely deep as a team, but these are Steph Curry-like numbers (8.2 on/off on offense, -7.4 on/off on defense in top5 team in both O&D) that were backed up by double MVP on a historically great team. In general, this is some historical outlier in terms of floor/ceiling raising to have in short span seasons like '81 (getting one of the weakest teams ever to the finals, and getting an MVP the next year) and '83 (65-17 and 12-1 in the playoffs, being an anchor of one of the most dominating teams ever), considering sooooo different environment and extremely quick adaptation to the latter. I do believe that these numbers answer some constant question marks regarding Moses, e.g. his defense and versatility (one of the best blocking stats in his career, in #5/#1 D in RS/PS, with great on/off numbers on D in RS -- it's hard to imagine that he wasn't at least pretty good that year). At some point, even though I know that portability is some major issue in evaluating Moses, you have to take domination over peers into account in these inter-era comparisons.

Again, sorry to interrupt, but that's something I've had on my mind for quite some time, actually since checking out the results of the last project.

2006 Wade had a +15 on/off too. 2009 Kobe was +11 on a 7 SRS team (higher when healthy). Dirk was +16 on what was an 8 SRS team when healthy. We do not have on/off for Walton, but we do know the team pretty much collapsed without him while playing at around a +7 SRS level with him. And that is just doing a quick look at title winners (could other non-champion centres put up +15 on those 76ers? I am inclined to say yes).

I know people love “fo’ fo’ fo’” and winning two out of three games against the 1981 Lakers, but for a lot of us that does not really carry a ton of comparative weight this early still in the project. Looking at the past project, the only kind-of rude placement above Moses is McGrady; I definitely understand how seeing Mr. First Round Exit go ahead of Moses could cause some consternation.

You are welcome to vote, though; the project could use the activity.

[trelos6]

15. Jerry West. Hard to pick a season. So many great ones. Maybe 1968, but 66 is also good. In 68, He was 21 pp75 and +9rTS%. Team offence was good and he was his usual demon self in the playoffs.

16. David Robinson. 1994. Not his defensive best, but pretty close to it. And definitely his offensive peak. 29.4 pp75 at +4.9rTS%

17. Comes down to Kawhi v Jokic. And I think I’m going Kawhi. 2016-17. He took a big step up to the offensive machine he is today. And his defence took a small step back from its stratospheric levels, but it was still there on key possessions. 29 pp75 at +5.7 rTS%


Next 3 for tiebreakers are Jokic, Durant, Kobe

[trex_8063]

1. '95 David Robinson ('94 DRob, '96 DRob)
Not sure the best year to go with; each has a slightly differing selling point, and honestly I think he was near the same level in all three years.
I imagine this will be a contraversial pick, but it sort of follows in the same vein as my Kevin Garnett pick: two-way dynamos.
I think people sometimes fail to acknowledge how extraordinary an OFFENSIVE player Robinson was in the regular season.......they just focus on the playoff decline.
I've made this [only slightly hyperbolic] statement before: Robinson was essentially asked/expected to be Bill Russell on defense AND Michael Jordan on offense for those early-mid 90s Spurs teams.

And the crazy as **** part is: he was mostly successful during the rs.

Frankly if he HAD been able to maintain that in the post-season, he'd have more than a puncher's chance of taking the #1 greatest peak of all-time.

In addition to his off-the-chart box-derived metrics [in the rs], look at his rs impact metrics over this same three-year span:
'94 Top 5 APM (from colts18)
1. David Robinson: +7.31
2. Kevin Willis: +5.44
3. Karl Malone: +5.37
4. Hakeem Olajuwon: +5.10
5. Nate McMillan: +4.85
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is greater than the separation between #2 and #11).

'94 Top 5 AuPM (Backpicks)
1. David Robinson: +6.7
2. Karl Malone: +5.2
3. Nate McMillan: +4.8
4. Hakeem Olajuwon: +4.5
5. Kevin Willis: +4.3
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is greater than the separation between #2 and #6).


'95 Top 5 APM
1. David Robinson: +7.42
2. Shaquille O'Neal: +5.80
3. Karl Malone: +4.93
4. Anfernee Hardaway: +4.68
5. Scottie Pippen: +4.63
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is greater than the separation between #2 and #6).

'95 Top 5 AuPM
1. David Robinson: +8.7
2. Scottie Pippen: +5.9
3. Shaquille O'Neal: +5.6
4. Anfernee Hardaway: +5.6
5. Karl Malone: +5.3
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is equal to the separation between #2 and #24).


'96 Top 5 APM
1. Michael Jordan: +6.67
2. David Robinson: +5.89
3. Anfernee Hardaway: +5.26
4. Scottie Pippen: +4.99
5. Karl Malone: +4.89

'96 Top 5 AuPM
1. David Robinson: +6.7
2. Michael Jordan: +6.5
3. Scottie Pippen: +5.8
4. Anfernee Hardaway: +5.7
5. Karl Malone: +5.2


I mean, holy cow. You look at these three years, and he's not just outperforming the competition......he's obliterating it! Except for a prime Michael Jordan [in '96], there's no one remotely close to him in the rs.
And these are almost exclusively all-timers he's obliterating.
In the playoffs, he comes back to Earth: down to maybe being only maybe like the 2nd or 3rd-best player in the league. Oh dear.

So how much deduction should he get for going from GOAT-candidate in rs to circa-2nd best in any given year in the playoffs?
idk.....decide for yourself. But don't sleep on how friggin' unearthly he was in the rs.
For myself, he's near the region of Duncan/Hakeem/Garnett; usually just behind, but really really close.


2. '22 Nikola Jokic ('21)
No one else immediately on my radar until these two guys are in.
Jokic is one of the most complete offensive players of all-time, imo: Very efficient and very difficult to stop in low-post isolation? Check. Elite mid-range shot? Check. Good 3pt shooting? Check. Good FT shooting? Check. Double-team at your own peril? Double-check. Creation off the dribble or in transition [unusual in a big-man]? Check. Relevant offensive rebounding? Check. Reasonably efficient turnover economy? Check.

His offensive impact on these Denver squads has been off the charts, in an historic sense. While Murray was out, they were approximately the worst offensive team in the league when Jokic sat; and then when he was in the game, they were approximately the BEST offensive team in the league. I mean seriously: from last to first. Who the hell does that?

I also wonder if his D gets underrated at times too (at least when people label him a "weak" or "bad" defender).
The Nuggets were pretty much exactly league-average defensively last year; if your center [the most important defensive position]---who also played more minutes than anyone on the team---is "bad" or "weak", there must be others who are lifting your defense back up to mediocrity. Let's look at who that might be....

Aaron Gordon is a decent defensive forward to my eye, though not All-D tier or anything [imo].
Campazzo [8th in minutes] is pesky as hell, though also undersized [and a bit foul-prone]; I'm still inclined to think he's a plus defender overall, but not really moving the needle far (especially being only 8th in minutes played).
JaMychal Green [9th in minutes] at least contributes a respectable amount of DRebs/stl/blk, so maybe he's decent(ish) defensively? I can't claim enough eye-test on him recently to say. Some other guys aren't bad, but with the departure of Gary Harris their defensive backcourt is certainly nothing special (couple guys sort of medium-far down on the minutes list could be called legit BAD defenders).
So is this enough to off-set a truly "bad" defensive C (who also leads the team in minutes)?
idk, I'm a pinch skeptical anyway.

I'd also look at WHERE their defense performs well, and where it does not.
Where does it NOT perform well?.....
Opp TOV%: 26th in the league. This is generally something that is more predicated on your perimeter defense (they will usually be the ones generating turnovers or otherwise forcing errors thru ball-pressure). Not an aspect of defense we can reasonably expect a C to carry; imo, this is something that reflects more poorly on the perimeter defense. And fwiw, Jokic leads the team [comfortably] in spg, and is 2nd [to only Campazzo] in stl/100 of guys in their regular rotation; so he's a notable component of what few turnovers they do generate.

Opp eFG%: 20th in the league (and in particular: 28th in opp 2pt%). OK, this one DOES reflect poorly on Jokic. Certainly it depends to a degree on schemes and team defense, but this is certainly something you'd expect a good rim-protecting C to put a serious dent in. fwiw, Jokic leads the team in bpg [is 2nd to only Cousins in blk/100].

Opp FT rate: This one is a bit of a mixed bag as to who [which position(s)] has the bigger role. Really it's something of a total team effort/coordination, imo. They were 12th in the league in this category (respectable).

DREB%: This is perhaps the category a C can leave the most imprint on. They're on the interior, they are [or should be] boxing out; they're the ones securing the lion's share of defensive boards on most teams.
Denver's rank? 6th. It's the one defensive FF they were actually borderline-elite at.
Jokic was a close 2nd in the league in individual DREB% (behind only Rudy Gobert, and well ahead of 3rd place), and is far and away leading the Nuggets in defensive boards; there isn't anyone else on the team who even has 40% as many.

And when I watch Jokic, I see a guy with a reasonably decent defensive IQ, and passable effort. He lacks good lateral quickness or recovery speed, he lacks explosive leaping ability, he doesn't have Gobert's length, his rim protecting positioning [mostly with where he has his arms, imo] could be a little better. But his awareness and footwork......those are pretty good, imo.

So overall, idk......I just think his defensive short-comings are overstated sometimes.


**Noticeable gap to anyone else for me, considering nearly everyone else I maybe considered sort of close have already been voted in. I feel we're already edging toward late for both of these guys, and in particular don't know how one could justify a sizable gap between Giannis and Jokic, given Jokic has---by all appearances---been shredding a league that contains peak/near-peak Giannis for the last couple years.



3. '77 Bill Walton???
A few other names I'd consider for this last spot: Dr. J, Durant, Nowitzki, maybe Wade or West. Can see dark-horse candidacies for other guys, too (Barkley, Paul, Kobe, Kawhi, McGrady, Moses).
But I'll tentatively go with Walton. Part of what makes it tentative is his marginally limited availability: missed 20% the rs, and played <35 mpg [in an era when most stars played >36 (even ~40 in some cases)]; definitely made himself more available in the playoffs, though you could see it was pushing what his body was capable of (I recall him on the bench with giant bags of ice taped to his knees).
The other thing that gives me pause is turnover economy: granted we don't have turnovers for '77, but we have it for the rest of his career, and it shows a big who is actually a fair bit turnover-prone (all-around economy similar to that of Shawn Kemp). My impression is that a number of Walton's turnovers came while attempting the high risk/high reward pass.......which is something I'd use as a positive factor when considering his turnovers (because when the gamble works, it produces a VERY high scoring opportunity. That said, this could be a mistaken assumption by me [about where his turnovers are occurring].

Walton's a fantastic defensive anchor at his peak, though (roughly a Rudy Gobert-tier, imo, except with slightly lesser rebounding I guess). Fantastic outlet passer (best of the era, outside of maybe Unseld??), and terrific half-court passer from post or high-post: his vision and touch facilitated a lot of back-cut and give-and-go scoring opportunities for teammates within Ramsay's system.

And he's a viable scoring option if needed [even in isolation]. His scoring did take a bit of a dip in the playoffs, but it's hard to argue with the result of that post-season run.
His WOWY, WOWYR, and similar figures are consistently bonkers [even later in his career, as with his '86 campaign], leaving one with the impression of a lot of "intangible" value.

Again, I'm not 100% sold on this being my best option for third ballot, so I might have a change of heart ['76 Erving in particular is bonkers]; but for now this is my pick.