No one wants former Pistons....

[Manocad]

Weaver and Casey have already shown the ability to embrace the tank, in which case we’re looking at around 23-25 again, shooting for a top 4 draft position. We’ll trade the useful vets (Burks, Olynyk, maybe Diallo), shut down Cade a la OKC and Shai, and drift into a top position. That outcome is far, far more likely, but I’m still interested to see the player development and that slight chance we’re ready earlier than expected.

Give me an over/under of 25 wins and I’ll take the over for anything you want to bet, being that you believe that’s a far more likely outcome than anything else.

I’m not the kind of person that bets against what they want to happen.

So not a lot of conviction there after all.

[zeebneeb]

This is a complete false accusation against me. I've said at least 10 times that we are going to be a bottom team tier team next season on here. I even predicted the over/under within 1 game in a thread before it was released.

i should have clarified that i didn't mean you specifically, just that i have seen a fair amount of people predict we're going to win 30+ games this season.

What’s a fair amount? I know zeeb is a little bipolar and gets up and down on the team pretty quickly (currently up), and I’m sure there are a couple others that think we’re a potential playoff or play-in team, but it’s certainly not very many.

As for me, my prediction is 30, but it’s a pretty stupid prediction, honestly. I don’t think there’s much of any chance we win thirty games. I think there’s a very slight chance Cade explodes early, Ivey isn’t containable, and we win 40 and make the playoffs. I’d put that chance at around 10-15%. Assuming that doesn’t happen, Weaver and Casey have already shown the ability to embrace the tank, in which case we’re looking at around 23-25 again, shooting for a top 4 draft position. We’ll trade the useful vets (Burks, Olynyk, maybe Diallo), shut down Cade a la OKC and Shai, and drift into a top position. That outcome is far, far more likely, but I’m still interested to see the player development and that slight chance we’re ready earlier than expected.

Hey now, I've been pretty consistent in that I completely recognize that this team could end up near the bottom for several reasons(youth, Cade/Ivey combo doesn't work, e.t.c.)but I feel like they should be able to compete for a play-in spot. As for what the front office wants, there is no way for me to know that. Maybe Weaver wants to tank one more season, so regardless of how much analyzing of the talent one does, if the GM has a mandate, well...

I'm a glass half-full type of guy, can't help that.

[Manocad]

I can't see any logical path to 23-25 wins next year. Every time someone says that it's backed up by "I could see Weaver wanting to tank again" with no substance behind it other than "Ivey is a rookie, he'll suck" (which oddly enough, wasn't the slack given to Hayes). Look what it took to finish with 23 wins last year:
- Grant injured
- Cade injured
- Cade's rough rookie start
- Bey's awful start
- Hayes starting
- KO injured
- Bagley for only 18 games
- blatant tanking at the end

And still went 13-28 the second half of the season after starting 10-31. It would hypothetically take a repeat of the second half of the season, so basically tanking the ENTIRE season, to finish with 26 wins. Obviously there's always going to be injuries but I don't think you'd plan on three key players being out for a significant number of games. So now let's look at what can reasonably be expected this season:
- Hayes plays on the bench, where he should be
- Cade keeps on being second half Cade
- Bagley plays the whole season (some people will say he's a negative player and will actually make the team worse, but whatever)
- Ivey; yes he's a rookie but he has Cade and Bey with him so he won't be pushed to do too much himself
- Bey has a normal start
- Stew takes and makes more 3's
- Bagley and Duren provide inside scoring threats the team did not have last season
- KO returns to usual form
- Burks provides some better bench shooting

Not only do I not think any of those points are unreasonable in and of themselves, but I don't think it's unreasonable to believe they ALL could happen. And if they do this team would have to be throwing games the whole season to finish with 25 wins IMO.

[zeebneeb]

I can't see any logical path to 23-25 wins next year. Every time someone says that it's backed up by "I could see Weaver wanting to tank again" with no substance behind it other than "Ivey is a rookie, he'll suck" (which oddly enough, wasn't the slack given to Hayes). Look what it took to finish with 23 wins last year:
- Grant injured
- Cade injured
- Cade's rough rookie start
- Bey's awful start
- Hayes starting
- KO injured
- Bagley for only 18 games
- blatant tanking at the end

And still went 13-28 the second half of the season after starting 10-31. It would hypothetically take a repeat of the second half of the season, so basically tanking the ENTIRE season, to finish with 26 wins. Obviously there's always going to be injuries but I don't think you'd plan on three key players being out for a significant number of games. So now let's look at what can reasonably be expected this season:
- Hayes plays on the bench, where he should be
- Cade keeps on being second half Cade
- Bagley plays the whole season (some people will say he's a negative player and will actually make the team worse, but whatever)
- Ivey; yes he's a rookie but he has Cade and Bey with him so he won't be pushed to do too much himself
- Bey has a normal start
- Stew takes and makes more 3's
- Bagley and Duren provide inside scoring threats the team did not have last season
- KO returns to usual form
- Burks provides some better bench shooting

Not only do I not think any of those points are unreasonable in and of themselves, but I don't think it's unreasonable to believe they ALL could happen. And if they do this team would have to be throwing games the whole season to finish with 25 wins IMO.

This is exactly where I am. I am really trying hard to take a cynical look at the team, but the biggest upgrade that has taken place is at the guard position, something that is uber important in today's league.

Just to make sure everyone gets my thinking here;

I'm going to be looking at the last 25 games of last season as a reference point, and go from there.

Corey Joseph started 39 games for the Pistons last year, a bunch of them at the SG/PG spot next to Cade. His replacement is going to be Jaden Ivey, and for next year at least, more importantly, Burks.

Why is Burks so important?

Read on Twitter

/photo/1

Alec Burks was the best shooter from the left wing last year in the entire NBA.

The Pistons were the second worst three point shooting team last year, so the addition of the best shooter from the left wing last year, is going to have a sizeable impact on the teams pick and roll scheme, especially considering the addition of Ivey.


Ivey
Burks
Cade
Bey
Stewart

Is a realistic scenario to see on the floor. That is a deadly team on offense, and, very capable on defense.

Starting lineup start of last season;

Hayes
F. Jackson
Bey
Grant
Stewart

I mean, C'mon. That's absolutely brutal in comparison.

After Cades injury;

Cade
Hayes
Bey
Grant
Stewart

Last 20+ games;

Cade
Joseph
Bey
Bagley
Stewart

Potential starting lineups;

Cade
Ivey
Bey
Stewart
Bagley

Cade
Ivey
Burks
Bey
Stewart

Cade
Ivey
Bey
Livers
Stewart

I haven't even delved into the subs, which have improved as well. The Pistons had the 7th highest scoring bench last year, amd your adding a real rim protector in Noel, and Duren. An absolute sharpshooter in Burks, and Hayes playing point off the bench, probably his proper position as he played well there last season.

I cannot comprehend how the team is anywhere near as bad as last season, especially to start the year. Full training camps for everyone, and preseason. Now, besides another season of injuries, and covid nightmares, I see an absolute bare minimum of 28 wins, and that's with an apocalyptic season. There is just to much talent on the roster.

My average is 33 wins, with a high end of around 40. I don't think that's unreasonable.

[tmorgan]

Give me an over/under of 25 wins and I’ll take the over for anything you want to bet, being that you believe that’s a far more likely outcome than anything else.

I’m not the kind of person that bets against what they want to happen.

So not a lot of conviction there after all.

Guess not.

Or I don’t waste my time with blustering blowhards on message boards.

Could be either, I guess.

[Manocad]

I’m not the kind of person that bets against what they want to happen.

So not a lot of conviction there after all.

Guess not.

Or I don’t waste my time with blustering blowhards on message boards.

Could be either, I guess.

Irony at its best

[NYPiston]

i'll start by saying i agree that people should be excited about the direction of the team, but a lot of that has to do with gores committing to a total rebuild as well. he's paid almost $100 million in the last few seasons just for guys to not play for us. once a GM has the green light to tear it up it's a pretty standard formula. OKC, HOU and ORL are in the same boat as us and both UTA and SAS are starting to do the same thing.

all these teams are in the easy/fun stage of rebuilds. all your players are super cheap so you have cap space and all your players are young so they have unlimited potential. it's the actual building of the roster after that that is the hard part and it rarely works the way you think it will. many, many teams get hamstrung by committing to guys who are promising on their rookie deals but plateau after they get locked up long term. look at de'aaron fox, donovan mitchell, zach lavine, michael porter jr., etc.

basically i think it's too early to revere weaver, some of the team's potential should be realized and translated to wins before he gets put on that pedestal.

Agreed that Weaver shouldn't be put up on a pedestal. In some ways, his toughest job is ahead of him and his legacy will be defined based on how he supplements this drafted core and builds a contender but my point is that he's put a ton of work in, moreso than just getting lucky with the Cade lottery.

Also, there's a wide gulf of difference between the Orlando and in particular Houston and OKC rebuilds. Those teams had prime assets to work with to get all their draft capital (Harden, George, Gordon, Vucevic) while the best assets Weaver had to work with when he came here was Rose and ??? so those teams were able to accumulate a bushel of futures because they had attractive assets worthy of that. Weaver took a junk pile and turned it into a gold mine of young talent and for that he should get a lot of credit in Phase 1 of this rebuild but as I said before, what he does in the next phase with this young player development and all the cap flexibility will shape his legacy but for now, I'm damn excited to see what comes of it.

Lets be honest, Weaver is doing EXACTLY what this fanbase has been crying out for a GM to do since The Bad Boys really. A full scale rebuild and, thus far, it's going about as well as can be expected and then some. If you had told me when Weaver took over that the Pistons would have had a young core to the likes of Cade, Ivey, Bey, Duren, Stewart (I'll even throw Bagley in there) armed with a possible 70m of cap space to spend shortly thereafter in a 3 year span, I would never have believed you. This is close to a best case scenario at this point in the rebuild IMO.

[vege]

- Bagley plays the whole season (some people will say he's a negative player and will actually make the team worse, but whatever)

And those people are correct.

[bstein14]

If we're trying to win every game this season, we win 30 to 33 games I think.

Its just a matter of whether or not that's the route we go. Do we play Duren a bunch of minutes post all-star break?

I think if we give more minutes to CoJo, Burks, Olynyk this season than Hayes, Bagley & Duren I think we win at least 30 games.

That's also largely because I think we'll see a good jump from Cade, Bey, and Stewart... and also because I really like what we've seen from Livers.

[Manocad]

- Bagley plays the whole season (some people will say he's a negative player and will actually make the team worse, but whatever)

And those people are correct.

Yeah, because 18 whole games with last year’s lineup and none with this year’s lineup is enough to know definitively how Bagley will work out.

[Pharaoh]

If we're trying to win every game this season, we win 30 to 33 games I think.

Its just a matter of whether or not that's the route we go. Do we play Duren a bunch of minutes post all-star break?

I think if we give more minutes to CoJo, Burks, Olynyk this season than Hayes, Bagley & Duren I think we win at least 30 games.

That's also largely because I think we'll see a good jump from Cade, Bey, and Stewart... and also because I really like what we've seen from Livers.

I don't want to see CoJo, KO & Burks getting huge minutes in the rotation! That's not a path to a positive future:

Pre TDL:

KO 24 - Bags 24
Stewart 30 - Livers 18
Bey 30 - Diallo 18
Ivey 30 - Burks 18
Cade 30 - Hayes 18

Post TDL:

Duren 24 - Bags 24
Stewart 30 - Livers 18
Bey 30 - Diallo 10 - Livers 8
Ivey 30 - Diallo 10 - Hayes 8
Cade 30 - Hayes 18

Obviously it won't play out that way but I'd prefer to play those 9 guys over any others just to get a better look at what we may or may not have heading into the next off-season

Sent from my SM-G781B using RealGM Forums mobile app

[bstein14]

If we're trying to win every game this season, we win 30 to 33 games I think.

Its just a matter of whether or not that's the route we go. Do we play Duren a bunch of minutes post all-star break?

I think if we give more minutes to CoJo, Burks, Olynyk this season than Hayes, Bagley & Duren I think we win at least 30 games.

That's also largely because I think we'll see a good jump from Cade, Bey, and Stewart... and also because I really like what we've seen from Livers.

I don't want to see CoJo, KO & Burks getting huge minutes in the rotation! That's not a path to a positive future:

Pre TDL:

KO 24 - Bags 24
Stewart 30 - Livers 18
Bey 30 - Diallo 18
Ivey 30 - Burks 18
Cade 30 - Hayes 18

Post TDL:

Duren 24 - Bags 24
Stewart 30 - Livers 18
Bey 30 - Diallo 10 - Livers 8
Ivey 30 - Diallo 10 - Hayes 8
Cade 30 - Hayes 18

Obviously it won't play out that way but I'd prefer to play those 9 guys over any others just to get a better look at what we may or may not have heading into the next off-season

Sent from my SM-G781B using RealGM Forums mobile app

I love Duren as a prospect... think he has super high upside... but I doubt he's a positive impact player in year one. Most rookies aren't, and he's an especially young rookie. I think his best case is likely rookie Drummond type impact. That said, I'd be happy to see him play a bunch and for us to not win more than 25 games.... Just really hard to say what direction the team will go in to start the season. I'm somewhat expecting Duren to not play much to start the season and for us to try to put our best effort out there to win games.... and then see how it goes and adjust if needed after we see how lineups with Burks, CoJo, Olynyk, etc work out. If we're 15-15 after 30 games Duren might not get the same benefit that Hayes and some of the other young guys got as rookies making mistakes on the fly. If we're 8-22 after 30 games we might get to see a bunch of Duren the 2nd half of the season.

I'm fine either way at this point. I do think to a degree, to see the best of Cade this season we likely need to see a bit more of him with the vets. But also having to be the everything guy can build up your overall game a way that you might not get if you're playing with other really good players so I think you could argue both roads could have some benefits for Cade in different ways.