Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Mon Aug 8, 2022 2:11 pm
1. '95 David Robinson ('94 DRob, '96 DRob)
Not sure the best year to go with; each has a slightly differing selling point, and honestly I think he was near the same level in all three years.
He might be the last two-way giant on the table.
I think people sometimes fail to acknowledge how extraordinary an OFFENSIVE player Robinson was in the regular season.......they just focus on the playoff decline.
I've made this [only slightly hyperbolic] statement before: Robinson was essentially asked/expected to be Bill Russell on defense AND Michael Jordan on offense for those early-mid 90s Spurs teams.
And the crazy as **** part is: he was mostly successful during the rs.
Frankly if he HAD been able to maintain that in the post-season, he'd have more than a puncher's chance of taking the #1 greatest peak of all-time.
In addition to his off-the-chart box-derived metrics [in the rs], look at his rs impact metrics over this same three-year span:
'94 Top 5 APM (from colts18)
1. David Robinson: +7.31
2. Kevin Willis: +5.44
3. Karl Malone: +5.37
4. Hakeem Olajuwon: +5.10
5. Nate McMillan: +4.85
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is greater than the separation between #2 and #11).
'94 Top 5 AuPM (Backpicks)
1. David Robinson: +6.7
2. Karl Malone: +5.2
3. Nate McMillan: +4.8
4. Hakeem Olajuwon: +4.5
5. Kevin Willis: +4.3
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is greater than the separation between #2 and #6).
'95 Top 5 APM
1. David Robinson: +7.42
2. Shaquille O'Neal: +5.80
3. Karl Malone: +4.93
4. Anfernee Hardaway: +4.68
5. Scottie Pippen: +4.63
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is greater than the separation between #2 and #6).
'95 Top 5 AuPM
1. David Robinson: +8.7
2. Scottie Pippen: +5.9
3. Shaquille O'Neal: +5.6
4. Anfernee Hardaway: +5.6
5. Karl Malone: +5.3
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is equal to the separation between #2 and #24).
'96 Top 5 APM
1. Michael Jordan: +6.67
2. David Robinson: +5.89
3. Anfernee Hardaway: +5.26
4. Scottie Pippen: +4.99
5. Karl Malone: +4.89
'96 Top 5 AuPM
1. David Robinson: +6.7
2. Michael Jordan: +6.5
3. Scottie Pippen: +5.8
4. Anfernee Hardaway: +5.7
5. Karl Malone: +5.2
I mean, holy cow. You look at these three years, and he's not just outperforming the competition......he's obliterating it! Except for a prime Michael Jordan [in '96], there's no one remotely close to him in the rs.
And these are almost exclusively all-timers he's obliterating.
In the playoffs, he comes back to Earth: down to maybe being only maybe like the 2nd or 3rd-best player in the league. Oh dear.
So how much deduction should he get for going from GOAT-candidate in rs to circa-2nd best in any given year in the playoffs?
idk.....decide for yourself. But don't sleep on how friggin' unearthly he was in the rs.
For myself, he's near the region of Duncan/Hakeem/Garnett; usually just behind, but really really close.
2. '22 Nikola Jokic ('21)
No one else immediately on my radar until these two guys are in.
Jokic is one of the most complete offensive players of all-time, imo: Very efficient and very difficult to stop in low-post isolation? Check. Elite mid-range shot? Check. Good 3pt shooting? Check. Good FT shooting? Check. Double-team at your own peril? Double-check. Creation off the dribble or in transition [unusual in a big-man]? Check. Relevant offensive rebounding? Check. Reasonably efficient turnover economy? Check.
His offensive impact on these Denver squads has been off the charts, in an historic sense. While Murray was out, they were approximately the worst offensive team in the league when Jokic sat; and then when he was in the game, they were approximately the BEST offensive team in the league. I mean seriously: from last to first. Who the hell does that?
I also wonder if his D gets underrated at times too (at least when people label him a "weak" or "bad" defender).
The Nuggets were pretty much exactly league-average defensively last year; if your center [the most important defensive position]---who also played more minutes than anyone on the team---is "bad" or "weak", there must be others who are lifting your defense back up to mediocrity. Let's look at who that might be....
Aaron Gordon is a decent defensive forward to my eye, though not All-D tier or anything [imo].
Campazzo [8th in minutes] is pesky as hell, though also undersized [and a bit foul-prone]; I'm still inclined to think he's a plus defender overall, but not really moving the needle far (especially being only 8th in minutes played).
JaMychal Green [9th in minutes] at least contributes a respectable amount of DRebs/stl/blk, so maybe he's decent(ish) defensively? I can't claim enough eye-test on him recently to say. Some other guys aren't bad, but with the departure of Gary Harris their defensive backcourt is certainly nothing special (couple guys sort of medium-far down on the minutes list could be called legit BAD defenders).
So is this enough to off-set a truly "bad" defensive C (who also leads the team in minutes)?
idk, I'm a pinch skeptical anyway.
I'd also look at WHERE their defense performs well, and where it does not.
Where does it NOT perform well?.....
Opp TOV%: 26th in the league. This is generally something that is more predicated on your perimeter defense (they will usually be the ones generating turnovers or otherwise forcing errors thru ball-pressure). Not an aspect of defense we can reasonably expect a C to carry; imo, this is something that reflects more poorly on the perimeter defense. And fwiw, Jokic leads the team [comfortably] in spg, and is 2nd [to only Campazzo] in stl/100 of guys in their regular rotation; so he's a notable component of what few turnovers they do generate.
Opp eFG%: 20th in the league (and in particular: 28th in opp 2pt%). OK, this one DOES reflect poorly on Jokic. Certainly it depends to a degree on schemes and team defense, but this is certainly something you'd expect a good rim-protecting C to put a serious dent in. fwiw, Jokic leads the team in bpg [is 2nd to only Cousins in blk/100].
Opp FT rate: This one is a bit of a mixed bag as to who [which position(s)] has the bigger role. Really it's something of a total team effort/coordination, imo. They were 12th in the league in this category (respectable).
DREB%: This is perhaps the category a C can leave the most imprint on. They're on the interior, they are [or should be] boxing out; they're the ones securing the lion's share of defensive boards on most teams.
Denver's rank? 6th. It's the one defensive FF they were actually borderline-elite at.
Jokic was a close 2nd in the league in individual DREB% (behind only Rudy Gobert, and well ahead of 3rd place), and is far and away leading the Nuggets in defensive boards; there isn't anyone else on the team who even has 40% as many.
And when I watch Jokic, I see a guy with a reasonably decent defensive IQ, and passable effort. He lacks good lateral quickness or recovery speed, he lacks explosive leaping ability, he doesn't have Gobert's length, and his rim protecting positioning [mostly with where he has his arms, imo] could be a little better. But his awareness and footwork......those are pretty good, imo.
So overall, idk......I just think his defensive short-comings are sometimes overstated.
**Noticeable gap to anyone else for me, considering nearly everyone else I maybe considered sort of close have already been voted in. I feel we're already late for both of these guys, and in particular don't know how one could justify a sizable gap between Giannis and Jokic, given Jokic has---by all appearances---been shredding a league that contains peak/near-peak Giannis for the last couple years.
3. '77 Bill Walton???
A few other names I'd consider for this last spot: Dr. J, Durant, Nowitzki, maybe Wade. Can see dark-horse candidacies for other guys, too (Barkley, Paul, Kobe, Kawhi, McGrady, Moses).
But I'll tentatively go with Walton. Part of what makes it tentative is his marginally limited availability: missed 20% the rs, and played <35 mpg [in an era when most stars played >36 (even ~40 in some cases)]; definitely made himself more available in the playoffs, though you could see it was pushing what his body was capable of (I recall him on the bench with giant bags of ice taped to his knees).
The other thing that gives me pause is turnover economy: granted we don't have turnovers for '77, but we have it for the rest of his career, and it shows a big who is actually a fair bit turnover-prone (all-around economy similar to that of Shawn Kemp). My impression is that a number of Walton's turnovers came while attempting the high risk/high reward pass.......which is something I'd use as a positive factor when considering his turnovers (because when the gamble works, it produces a VERY high scoring opportunity. That said, this could be a mistaken assumption by me [about where his turnovers are occurring].
Walton's a fantastic defensive anchor at his peak, though (roughly a Rudy Gobert-tier, imo, except with slightly lesser rebounding I guess). Fantastic outlet passer (best of the era, outside of maybe Unseld??), and terrific half-court passer from post or high-post: his vision and touch facilitated a lot of back-cut and give-and-go scoring opportunities for teammates within Ramsay's system.
And he's a viable scoring option if needed [even in isolation]. His scoring did take a bit of a dip in the playoffs, but it's hard to argue with the result of that post-season run.
His WOWY, WOWYR, and similar figures are consistently bonkers [even later in his career, as with his '86 campaign], leaving one with the impression of a lot of "intangible" value.
Again, I'm not 100% sold on this being my best option for third ballot, so I might have a change of heart ['76 Erving in particular is bonkers]; but for now this is my pick.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
Yeah, it'll be cool to discuss how players have changed over time in the "Greatest Peaks Discussion/Review" thread at the end. 
