Higher peak to date: Nikola Jokic vs Giannis

[No-more-rings]

Giannis just went 13th, and Jokic 16th in the project so I think most agree it's a close comparison. Curious to see how they fare in a poll though.

Giannis personally went too high for my liking, while Jokic for me would've went around 11th or 12th.

Does championship bias play a role in Giannis usually getting the benefit of the doubt over Jokic? The guy just broke the PER record by nearly a whole point, then in the playoffs made the champion and 1st ranked defense look completely hopeless trying to guard him. Does Jokic's defense really hurt him that much? The Bucks defense in 2022 was only marginally better than the Nuggets despite the fact that Giannis had Jrue Holiday, Kris Middleton, and a bunch of other good defenders.

Giannis' offense is overrated, and people overrate his offense because of how big of numbers he puts up. Just in his last series against the Celtics, he put up amazing raw numbers 34/14/7, but shot 51.6 ts% with over 5 tov and the Bucks wound up with just a 101.7 ORTG(-13.4 from regular season). It was a solid series by his standards, I just think his high scoring and assist numbers tend to overstate his real offensive impact. This doesn't even mention the fact that he's a relatively poor shooter. I know he's made some improvements the past few years, but teams also welcome him 3s and long 2s.

Seemed like during the regular season most were saying Jokic>Giannis, and now it's the opposite? What changed considering Jokic was also better in the postseason?

[VanWest82]

Giannis had very little help offensively in that series and had to force a lot vs. a truly excellent Celtics defense. His growth as an on ball, off ball threat has been remarkable the last couple of years. Further, I bet his TS% and TOV% would've been a lot better if Middleton had been the one iniitiating some of those PnRs. And he's a former DPOY.

That said, it's really close. Jokic is clearly the better offensive talent. But he's also a defensive liability in some match ups. Overall, I'd take Jokic but at the highest levels I'd go Giannis due to his versatility on both ends of the court.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Where you take peak Jokic vs peak giannis relies on how much you think Jokic’s struggles defensively in the playoffs still exist, and how high you are on giannis’s defense in the 2021 playoffs

With Jokic, he’s been defensively pretty horrendous in the playoffs for 3 years straight, but his RS defense was much improved, so if you think it’s just low sample stuff then sure

He’s probably fine defensively in the playoffs going forward but it’s one of those I kinda wanna see it first, because obviously if he continues to have the same playoff defensive impact that he has had the last few years he drops a lot for me, even if it’s matchup dependent

I’d assume most people have 2021 giannis over 2022 giannis

[AEnigma]

Does championship bias play a role in Wade usually getting the benefit of the doubt over Harden? Harden broke the per 100 scoring record by over a whole point, then in the playoffs made the champion and 1st ranked postseason defense look completely hopeless trying to guard him. Does Harden’s defense really hurt him that much? The Heat’s defense in 2009 was only marginally better than the Rockets in 2020 despite the fact that Wade had Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem, and a bunch of other good defenders. I just think Wade’s high scoring and assist numbers tend to overstate his real offensive impact. This doesn't even mention the fact that he's a relatively poor shooter. I know he made some improvements, but teams also welcome him 3s and long 2s.



In all seriousness, yes, the defence is prohibitive, and you saw why in the postseason. For as much as Jokic could not be stopped by the Warriors, and for as much as Jokic seemed to have improved defensively in the regular season, when it mattered, Jokic was yet again obliterated defensively. Maybe next season the offence has a 2017 Cavaliers run and is so good they make it work anyway. Or maybe after some more failure they retool the roster into a more defensive one and try to go for a 2011 Mavericks type of run. But until either there is proof that the offence is good enough to win a title in spite of defensive bleeding, or there is proof that you can stop the bleeding without sacrificing too much offence, that is rightly a question mark for Jokic.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Does championship bias play a role in Wade usually getting the benefit of the doubt over Harden? Harden broke the per 100 scoring record by over a whole point, then in the playoffs made the champion and 1st ranked postseason defense look completely hopeless trying to guard him. Does Harden’s defense really hurt him that much? The Heat’s defense in 2009 was only marginally better than the Rockets in 2020 despite the fact that Wade had Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem, and a bunch of other good defenders. I just think Wade’s high scoring and assist numbers tend to overstate his real offensive impact. This doesn't even mention the fact that he's a relatively poor shooter. I know he made some improvements, but teams also welcome him 3s and long 2s.



In all seriousness, yes, the defence is prohibitive, and you saw why in the postseason. For as much as Jokic could not be stopped by the Warriors, and for as much as Jokic seemed to have improved defensively in the regular season, when it mattered, Jokic was yet again obliterated defensively. Maybe next season the offence has a 2017 Cavaliers run and is so good they make it work anyway. Or maybe after some more failure they retool the roster into a more defensive one and try to go for a 2011 Mavericks type of run. But until either there is proof that the offence is good enough to win a title in spite of defensive bleeding, or there is proof that you can stop the bleeding without sacrificing too much offence, that is rightly a question mark for Jokic.

The thing is with the 2017 cavs is they were still pretty decent defensively come playoff time, it’s hard to fault them for not stopping the Warriors with KD going supernova in the finals

The issue is the nuggets have like pretty consistently been horrendous with Jokic on the floor defensively, a quick glance makes him seem worse than trae in that regard

His defensive improvements in the RS makes me think the Warriors series was probably noise vs anything definitive, and he’ll be fine defensively in the postseason going forward, but if he genuinely is that bad on defense it is gonna be a huge issue for sure in terms of evaluating his peak all time

[DraymondGold]

FWIW, here’s a few stats to compare them:

Plus minus data
Ai. AuPM: 19/20/21 Giannis ~ 21/22 Jokic
Aii. Postseason AuPM: Giannis > Jokic (but better in 19/22)
Bi. Goldstein RAPM: 19/20 Giannis > 19/20 Jokic [but Jokic 21/22 > Giannis 21/22 in NBA Shotcharts RAPM]
Bii. Goldstein RS/Playoff PIPM: Giannis > Jokic (missing 2022)
C. Fivethirtyeight’s Overall RAPTOR +/-: Jokic >> Giannis
D. Bball-Index’s LEBRON: 19/20 Giannis (21/22 Giannis is much lower) > Jokic
E. DARKO: Giannis > Jokic
F. Additional plus minus stats: ESPN’s RPM: Jokic > Giannis
G. Additional plus minus stats: Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: 19/20 Giannis > 19/20 Jokic [no stat for 21/22 yet]


Box score-based data
Hi. Backpicks BPM: Jokic > Giannis
Hii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: Jokic > Giannis
Ii. BR’s BPM: Jokic > Giannis
Iii. BR’s Postseason BPM: Jokic > Giannis

Jokic has the slight advantage in overall number of stats, but the advantage is clearly in the box stats. More plus-minus based stats are a lot closer (though a few are missing 22 numbers and of course the 22 playoff sample is small)

[letskissbro]

Here are the results of Jokic guarding spread PnR the last 3 postseasons:

Mitchell: 36/5 on 70 TS%
AD: 31/6 on 67 TS%
Lillard: 35/10 on 66 TS%
CP3: 26/10 on 74.3 TS%
Poole: 21/5 on 71.5 TS%
Curry: 28/5 on 64.1 TS%
Klay: 23/2 on 64.5% TS

Until I see evidence to suggest otherwise I'm on the side of Jokic being a horrendous, scheme compromising defender. Like easily the worst of the top 50 players.

I'm surprised he was voted so high in the peaks project. Steve Nash for example is less exploitable than he is defensively while probably also being the better offensive player.

I'm not so high on Giannis' offense either but even at his worst he isn't a straight negative. His two-way impact gives him a higher summit to fall from and I at least have complete faith in him to eviscerate teams that don't have the personnel to guard him.

[1993Playoffs]

Giannis for me. He’s much better defensively

[Ryoga Hibiki]

I think the real question is how Jokic is going to perform in a more optimized defensive team and, based in that assunption, how that would shift your grade.
I think most centers are going to get killed if left on a island against Steph. Actually, it happened even to the likes of Horford or Williams.
What's going to happen with Gordon+KCP+Brown on the floor? These are not expensive pieces, it's just a matter to make a team that doesn't expose Jokic, as he's good enough to make any offense work.

About Gannis, we do know that he can be limited offensively without the right creation around him, and creation never comes cheap.
Still going for Giannis, but future info can make me re evaluate what we saw to far.

[Wooderson]

The Bucks defense in 2022 was only marginally better than the Nuggets despite the fact that Giannis had Jrue Holiday, Kris Middleton, and a bunch of other good defenders.

Huh? Middleton was bad defensively in the regular season last year. The next 5 players by minutes played in regular season after the big 3 - Portis (bad defender), Allen (bad defender), Pat (solid defender), Hill (meh defender), Nwora (bad defender). Where are these "bunch of other good defenders". It was basically Giannis/Jrue and a bunch of crappy defenders including Portis in the front court. Basically only one other guy who I'd consider average or above among the guys with top minutes was Pat.

[Peregrine01]

I think this is a good comparison that deserves more discussion since these two are probably the best two players in the NBA and have won the last 4 MVPs. I guess it comes down to whether Jokic's gap on offense is bigger than Giannis's on defense.

[Sign5]

Does championship bias play a role in Wade usually getting the benefit of the doubt over Harden? Harden broke the per 100 scoring record by over a whole point, then in the playoffs made the champion and 1st ranked postseason defense look completely hopeless trying to guard him. Does Harden’s defense really hurt him that much? The Heat’s defense in 2009 was only marginally better than the Rockets in 2020 despite the fact that Wade had Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem, and a bunch of other good defenders. I just think Wade’s high scoring and assist numbers tend to overstate his real offensive impact. This doesn't even mention the fact that he's a relatively poor shooter. I know he made some improvements, but teams also welcome him 3s and long 2s.



.

Not just championship but you know actually being the better defender and overall better player. The super offense that Harden fans like to drool over consistently drops off a cliff come post season. In fact it dropped this season once the league stopped rewarding his foul-bait gimmicky offense. Wade's offensive is devoid of a consistent 3pt shot and detractors use that to crucify him as a player but despite not being as proficient at 3s he was still one of the greatest scorers of all time and STILL a far more resilient scorer than Harden with his predictable step back or drive game. Wade's array of moves in the 3pt line and his ability play the passing lanes while still having the quickness to shoulder rim protection is why he's a champ and Harden is still trying to get to the finals again after he choked his first and only time. Not only that Wade has hit so many 3s to win games, tie games Send them to overtime or just come back and win. See Chicago steal and 3, Chicago '11 game 5, Boston game 4 '10 etc etc.

It's insulting to compare Harden to Wade for the majority of his career turned up when it mattered.

[AEnigma]

Lol alright.

You know, Harden’s game sure held up in 2020. And Wade never even made a conference finals without a top ten all-time teammate; when pre-peak Harden had an end-of-prime Dwight Howard and Chris Paul, he made the conference finals and both times lost to a way better team than any Wade ever encountered. Does Wade’s (guard) defence really matter that much when he is being outscored and outcreated?

That just sounds like more title bias to me!

[AEnigma]

Here are the results of Jokic guarding spread PnR the last 3 postseasons:

Mitchell: 36/5 on 70 TS%
AD: 31/6 on 67 TS%
Lillard: 35/10 on 66 TS%
CP3: 26/10 on 74.3 TS%
Poole: 21/5 on 71.5 TS%
Curry: 28/5 on 64.1 TS%
Klay: 23/2 on 64.5% TS

Until I see evidence to suggest otherwise I'm on the side of Jokic being a horrendous, scheme compromising defender. Like easily the worst of the top 50 players.

I'm surprised he was voted so high in the peaks project. Steve Nash for example is less exploitable than he is defensively while probably also being the better offensive player.

Ever since 2012 Nash has struggled to garner respect or gain traction in the peaks threads, but I suppose that is to be expected when a fair chunk of people still see him as “Stockton with a good situation and no defence.”

[Johnny Firpo]

Here are the results of Jokic guarding spread PnR the last 3 postseasons:

Mitchell: 36/5 on 70 TS%
AD: 31/6 on 67 TS%
Lillard: 35/10 on 66 TS%
CP3: 26/10 on 74.3 TS%
Poole: 21/5 on 71.5 TS%
Curry: 28/5 on 64.1 TS%
Klay: 23/2 on 64.5% TS

Until I see evidence to suggest otherwise I'm on the side of Jokic being a horrendous, scheme compromising defender. Like easily the worst of the top 50 players.

I'm surprised he was voted so high in the peaks project. Steve Nash for example is less exploitable than he is defensively while probably also being the better offensive player.

I'm not so high on Giannis' offense either but even at his worst he isn't a straight negative. His two-way impact gives him a higher summit to fall from and I at least have complete faith in him to eviscerate teams that don't have the personnel to guard him.

I think Denver having the worst perimeter defense out of the playoff teams in the last three years severely impacted Jokic's defensive impact. I look forward to see what those new signings can do for them, and I'm very high on that project now. They got exactly what they needed IMO.

[Ron Swanson]

Penalizing Giannis for being "inefficient" while putting up 34/14/7 against arguably the best defense in the league is like penalizing Lebron for his 2015 Finals performance. Not sure I follow the logic there when the Bucks were an absolutely bonkers 28.8 points per-100 worse with Giannis on the bench vs. him on the floor in the postseason. Dude nearly pulled off one of the biggest carry-jobs in NBA history. These two guys are really close but as others have said, the massive defensive gap seems like too much for me to make a convincing argument that Jokic peaked higher, and that gap only gets more problematic for Joker against modern postseason offenses, even if the evidence points to him being a much improved RS defender.

I think the peaks project already confirmed a lot of this. Peak/current Jokic is about as good as any offensive anchor I've ever seen, but Giannis' offensive impact always seems to be underrated (as strictly scorers I think Giannis even has a clear advantage here). Much like Magic vs. Lebron, it's just really hard to convince me the strictly offense guy is more valuable than the dude who's elite on both ends.

[Peregrine01]

Here are the results of Jokic guarding spread PnR the last 3 postseasons:

Mitchell: 36/5 on 70 TS%
AD: 31/6 on 67 TS%
Lillard: 35/10 on 66 TS%
CP3: 26/10 on 74.3 TS%
Poole: 21/5 on 71.5 TS%
Curry: 28/5 on 64.1 TS%
Klay: 23/2 on 64.5% TS

Until I see evidence to suggest otherwise I'm on the side of Jokic being a horrendous, scheme compromising defender. Like easily the worst of the top 50 players.

I'm surprised he was voted so high in the peaks project. Steve Nash for example is less exploitable than he is defensively while probably also being the better offensive player.

I'm not so high on Giannis' offense either but even at his worst he isn't a straight negative. His two-way impact gives him a higher summit to fall from and I at least have complete faith in him to eviscerate teams that don't have the personnel to guard him.

I think Denver having the worst perimeter defense out of the playoff teams in the last three years severely impacted Jokic's defensive impact. I look forward to see what those new signings can do for them, and I'm very high on that project now. They got exactly what they needed IMO.

I am as well. I think the Nuggets are a bit of a dark-horse though I'm not quite high on Murray or MPJ as second or third offensive options. Murray has a tendency to overdribble and take tough shots and MPJ can have blinders on and is pretty poor defensively. If anything, I think the best configuration around Jokic is to just surround him with defensive wings (ala Toronto) and he can take a roster to a top-5 offense by himself almost.

[Peregrine01]

Penalizing Giannis for being "inefficient" while putting up 34/14/7 against arguably the best defense in the league is like penalizing Lebron for his 2015 Finals performance. Not sure I follow the logic there when the Bucks were an absolutely bonkers 28.8 points per-100 worse with Giannis on the bench vs. him on the floor in the postseason. Dude nearly pulled off one of the biggest carry-jobs in NBA history. These two guys are really close but as others have said, the massive defensive gap seems like too much for me to make a convincing argument that Jokic peaked higher, and that gap only gets more problematic for Joker against modern postseason offenses, even if the evidence points to him being a much improved RS defender.

I think the peaks project already confirmed a lot of this. Peak/current Jokic is about as good as any offensive anchor I've ever seen, but Giannis' offensive impact always seems to be underrated (as strictly scorers I think Giannis even has a clear advantage here). Much like Magic vs. Lebron, it's just really hard to convince me the strictly offense guy is more valuable than the dude who's elite on both ends.

It's hard atm to gauge just how large that defensive gap is because the Nuggets had one of the worst perimeter defenses in the league last year while the Bucks had one of the best. Jokic will never be great guarding speedy guards in space and I suspect the Nuggets won't either. But if they're just good enough and Denver's new additions can apply more pressure at the point of attack, Jokic can settle into a more comfortable role playing as a drop big.

[Ron Swanson]

I think the fact that we constantly need to assert the "perimeter defense" argument with Jokic doesn't really convince me that it's much of a factor. Yes, any big with better perimeter defensive support is going to look better by the numbers. Denver's best postseason defense and Jokic's best defensive on/off (2019) coincided with him playing alongside Millsap who was damn near the perfect defensive-4 to play alongside him. But it's not like we don't have ample evidence at this point to prove that Joker struggles against all kinds of pick & roll and spread offensive action. Last 3 postseasons:

+2.4 RS, -11.1 PS
-6.9 RS, -3.3 PS
+6.4 RS, -5.1 PS

Compared to Giannis:

+7.9 RS, +1.4 PS
+3.4 RS, +8.4 PS
+3.7 RS, +10.9 PS

That's just way too massive of a defensive gap anchoring postseason defenses for me to believe that any improvement defensively from Denver this year should be attributed that much to Jokic. We've seen Giannis pre-Holiday as well and he was still a DPOTY caliber player anchoring #1 defenses in both the RS and PS. It's hard IMO to come up with a data-driven argument that the offensive gap in favor of Jokic is anywhere near as large as the defensive one in favor of Giannis, once we use context to weed out the noisy 2022 metrics like defensive RAPTOR, DRPM, and EPM.

[CharityStripe34]

Can we stop and appreciate how amazing both guys are, and the fact that they've just hit their prime years before opening up the excel files? I'm fully confident that they are going to be the two best players in the world for the next 5-7 years, with Luka right near them.

Jokic did break the PER record, but the prior record was Gianni himself, who has been a walking 30-31 PER for four straight seasons (cum avg). While Jokic is a more varied scorer on three-levels and that is of little dispute, Gianni's continued growth as a mid-range shooter (42% last season) only makes his massive gravity even more dangerous as he creates a crap ton of open shots for his teammates.

For me, Gianni's peak has been higher thanks to his defensive brilliance. Since they're both really close on offensive impact. I love the Joker, though, he's probably my second favorite player to watch these last few years and currently.