Higher peak to date: Nikola Jokic vs Giannis

[Peregrine01]

I think the fact that we constantly need to assert the "perimeter defense" argument with Jokic doesn't really convince me that it's much of a factor. Yes, any big with better perimeter defensive support is going to look better by the numbers. Denver's best postseason defense and Jokic's best defensive on/off (2019) coincided with him playing alongside Millsap who was damn near the perfect defensive-4 to play alongside him. But it's not like we don't have ample evidence at this point to prove that Joker struggles against all kinds of pick & roll and spread offensive action. Last 3 postseasons:

+2.4 RS, -11.1 PS
-6.9 RS, -3.3 PS
+6.4 RS, -5.1 PS

Compared to Giannis:

+7.9 RS, +1.4 PS
+3.4 RS, +8.4 PS
+3.7 RS, +10.9 PS

That's just way too massive of a defensive gap anchoring postseason defenses for me to believe that any improvement defensively from Denver this year should be attributed that much to Jokic. We've seen Giannis pre-Holiday as well and he was still a DPOTY caliber player anchoring #1 defenses in both the RS and PS. It's hard IMO to come up with a data-driven argument that the offensive gap in favor of Jokic is anywhere near as large as the defensive one in favor of Giannis, once we use context to weed out the noisy 2022 metrics like defensive RAPTOR, DRPM, and EPM.

I'm not sure old Millsap is a good example to use here. IMO, their best defensive lineup came in 2020 when they had Jerami Grant at the 4 and Gary Harris. Jokic has certainly gotten better on defense as well, especially with his conditioning.

The Bucks even pre-Holiday were a highly defensive-oriented team. They had Brogdon, Hill and Middleton plus Giannis and Lopez (who've become of the best rim protecting tandem in the league). The Bucks had always focused on having a stellar defense first whereas the Nuggets have done the opposite.

Jokic will never be on Giannis's level on defense but neither do I think he has to. I think that the past season has shown that Jokic can carry an elite offense nearly by himself and that the biggest holes to plug for the Nuggets are on defense. If the Nuggets can just tread water on defense, they become contenders in my view.

[Woodsanity]

Slight edge to Giannis for now. Lets see how Jokic does in the playoffs with a fully healthy Nuggets roster. His defense has improved but its still a bit weak in the playoffs but his team has not been healthy lately so I will wait till we see a healthy roster to re-evaluate.

Offense is Jokic easily of course but the defensive gap for now more than makes up for it. Need Jokic to clearly be a decent-above average defender in the playoffs for now he is average at most.

[CharityStripe34]

This will be a fascinating discussion five years from now.

[capfan33]

Until I see more of Jokic's defense in the playoffs I can't overlook that aspect of this comparison. I love Jokic's game but until it's proven you can create a passable playoff defense around him without sacrificing too much offense this is Giannis. And I don't care about titles at all.

[Peregrine01]

Until I see more of Jokic's defense in the playoffs I can't overlook that aspect of this comparison. I love Jokic's game but until it's proven you can create a passable playoff defense around him without sacrificing too much offense this is Giannis. And I don't care about titles at all.

Replace 2020 Jokic with current Jokic and do you think they win it all that year?

[capfan33]

Until I see more of Jokic's defense in the playoffs I can't overlook that aspect of this comparison. I love Jokic's game but until it's proven you can create a passable playoff defense around him without sacrificing too much offense this is Giannis. And I don't care about titles at all.

Replace 2020 Jokic with current Jokic and do you think they win it all that year?

Don't see them beating the Lakers but maybe could take them to 7. And I'm not convinced you can't create a good defense without sacrificing too much offense around Jokic, but just want to see more of a sample. Moreover, the way the game is going I think it's going to be very difficult for non-hypermobile bigs to stay on the floor in the playoffs, just too easy to exploit on the perimeter.

[tsherkin]

Here are the results of Jokic guarding spread PnR the last 3 postseasons:

Mitchell: 36/5 on 70 TS%
AD: 31/6 on 67 TS%
Lillard: 35/10 on 66 TS%
CP3: 26/10 on 74.3 TS%
Poole: 21/5 on 71.5 TS%
Curry: 28/5 on 64.1 TS%
Klay: 23/2 on 64.5% TS

What do they look like for Giannis?

[LukaTheGOAT]

Over the past 4 postseasons, the Milwaukee Bucks have held opponents 8.2 points below their regular season offensive rating average. This is the best 4 year playoff stretch of defense in NBA history.

The Bucks have done incredibly well on defense, even when Brook Lopez off the floor, showing Giannis could be a true anchor

Read on Twitter

I would hypothesize the Bucks' defense not being up to par in the RS like they are capable of, has to do with there being no Brook Lopez for much of the year, Giannis and JruenHoliday taking it easier on that end, as well as the deployment of some new defensive strategies by Bud to see how things look.

[falcolombardi]

Over the past 4 postseasons, the Milwaukee Bucks have held opponents 8.2 points below their regular season offensive rating average. This is the best 4 year playoff stretch of defense in NBA history.

The Bucks have done incredibly well on defense, even when Brook Lopez off the floor, showing Giannis could be a true anchor

Read on Twitter

I would hypothesize the Bucks' defense not being up to par in the RS like they are capable of, has to do with there being no Brook Lopez for much of the year, Giannis and JruenHoliday taking it easier on that end, as well as the deployment of some new defensive strategies by Bud to see how things look.

I have talked about this before, bucks are in a historic playoff run of defensive success even with the 2020 postseason dragging the average down (or up in this case)

It doesnt get talked about enough. If they have a -6 relative defense next playoffs (which they have accomplished 3 of the last 4 years) they will have the best non russel 5-year run of post season defense

Better thab duncan spurs

[Proxy]

For me, Gianni's peak has been higher thanks to his defensive brilliance. Since they're both really close on offensive impact. I love the Joker, though, he's probably my second favorite player to watch these last few years and currently.

I'm curious, why do you believe they are really close in offensive impact? (Can't remember if you detailed why in other threads)

[Peregrine01]

Until I see more of Jokic's defense in the playoffs I can't overlook that aspect of this comparison. I love Jokic's game but until it's proven you can create a passable playoff defense around him without sacrificing too much offense this is Giannis. And I don't care about titles at all.

Replace 2020 Jokic with current Jokic and do you think they win it all that year?

Don't see them beating the Lakers but maybe could take them to 7. And I'm not convinced you can't create a good defense without sacrificing too much offense around Jokic, but just want to see more of a sample. Moreover, the way the game is going I think it's going to be very difficult for non-hypermobile bigs to stay on the floor in the playoffs, just too easy to exploit on the perimeter.

It was a pretty close 5-game series. The Lakers pt differential was just 4 points a game and if AD hadn’t hit that 3 the series would’ve gone 6 at minimum.

A big issue for the Nuggets was Jokic only playing 33 minutes a game. A lot of that was due to foul trouble and plain conditioning both of which current Jokic has gotten a lot better than.

The Nuggets lost a ton of offense with Murray and MPJ out and Jokic still carried them to the 6th best offense in the league. I think he’s proved that he doesn’t need a lot of offensive help to generate elite offense.

[CharityStripe34]

For me, Gianni's peak has been higher thanks to his defensive brilliance. Since they're both really close on offensive impact. I love the Joker, though, he's probably my second favorite player to watch these last few years and currently.

I'm curious, why do you believe they are really close in offensive impact? (Can't remember if you detailed why in other threads)

Why not? In Jokic's greatest season last year, Gianni's PER was .8 behind and in the last 4-5 seasons he's been all-time level elite efficiency wise (literally averages 30 PER). Sure, Jokic's 3pt% and FT% is considerably better and he's a passing savant so if you want to say Nikola's more varied three-level scoring and creation make him the more versatile threat I wouldn't complain. All I'd say is that Freak's impact comes from his dominance in or near the paint in which he helps create a crap ton of open shots and passing lanes all day long for his teammates, and he's been one of the elite scorers (28PPG) for the last five seasons. As well as a very good and willing passer.

I would just say they're both offensively dominant, just in different facets of the game.

[No-more-rings]

For me, Gianni's peak has been higher thanks to his defensive brilliance. Since they're both really close on offensive impact. I love the Joker, though, he's probably my second favorite player to watch these last few years and currently.

I'm curious, why do you believe they are really close in offensive impact? (Can't remember if you detailed why in other threads)

Why not? In Jokic's greatest season last year, Gianni's PER was .8 behind and in the last 4-5 seasons he's been all-time level elite efficiency wise (literally averages 30 PER). Sure, Jokic's 3pt% and FT% is considerably better and he's a passing savant so if you want to say Nikola's more varied three-level scoring and creation make him the more versatile threat I wouldn't complain. All I'd say is that Freak's impact comes from his dominance in or near the paint in which he helps create a crap ton of open shots and passing lanes all day long for his teammates, and he's been one of the elite scorers (28PPG) for the last five seasons. As well as a very good and willing passer.

I would just say they're both offensively dominant, just in different facets of the game.

Their scoring and PER may be close, but that doesn’t mean they’re comparable offensively. Jokic’s passing unlocks way more for his teammates, and his shooting allows for more postseason resiliency. You can say his defense swings it in his favor, which is what a lot appear to think. Calling them comparable on offense is like calling Iverson and Curry comparable on offense. It’s just simply not true.

This is sort of why I made this thread. People don’t want to admit that Giannis is a flawed offensive player as far as skill set goes. I don’t think Giannis is better offensively than peak Westbrook, let alone Jokic.

[No-more-rings]

Penalizing Giannis for being "inefficient" while putting up 34/14/7 against arguably the best defense in the league is like penalizing Lebron for his 2015 Finals performance.

Actually i’ve been critical of that Lebron series for years. Not because he was bad or anything, but because people treat it like one of his best series which is laughable.

I think the peaks project already confirmed a lot of this. Peak/current Jokic is about as good as any offensive anchor I've ever seen, but Giannis' offensive impact always seems to be underrated (as strictly scorers I think Giannis even has a clear advantage here). Much like Magic vs. Lebron, it's just really hard to convince me the strictly offense guy is more valuable than the dude who's elite on both ends.

This isn’t at all like Magic vs Lebron. This is more like Drob vs Bird, though I know Drob isn’t Giannis as an offensive player.

[CharityStripe34]

I'm curious, why do you believe they are really close in offensive impact? (Can't remember if you detailed why in other threads)

Why not? In Jokic's greatest season last year, Gianni's PER was .8 behind and in the last 4-5 seasons he's been all-time level elite efficiency wise (literally averages 30 PER). Sure, Jokic's 3pt% and FT% is considerably better and he's a passing savant so if you want to say Nikola's more varied three-level scoring and creation make him the more versatile threat I wouldn't complain. All I'd say is that Freak's impact comes from his dominance in or near the paint in which he helps create a crap ton of open shots and passing lanes all day long for his teammates, and he's been one of the elite scorers (28PPG) for the last five seasons. As well as a very good and willing passer.

I would just say they're both offensively dominant, just in different facets of the game.

Their scoring and PER may be close, but that doesn’t mean they’re comparable offensively. Jokic’s passing unlocks way more for his teammates, and his shooting allows for more postseason resiliency. You can say his defense swings it in his favor, which is what a lot appear to think. Calling them comparable on offense is like calling Iverson and Curry comparable on offense. It’s just simply not true.

This is sort of why I made this thread. People don’t want to admit that Giannis is a flawed offensive player as far as skill set goes. I don’t think Giannis is better offensively than peak Westbrook, let alone Jokic.

Iverson was an inefficient chucker. That's an awful example and quite disingenuous.

Raw and advanced data show Gianni as being an elite and efficient offensive player. Is he more varied than someone like Durant or Jokic? Of course not. I don't think anyone would claim that, even the most ardent of us Bucks fans.

[HeartBreakKid]

I think it's quite common for people to think volume scorers are close on offense. Looking at it, I really don't see how Giannis is "close" to Jokic on offense unless we are being very liberal with that term.

Even reduced to just scoring, Jokic was easily better than Giannis. He was comfortably ahead during the RS based on TS%, and based on a small sample size crushes him in the post season. And that's the aspect that they're supposed to be close at.

Take into account shooting which the gap is truly gigantic and passing...which again the gap is truly gigantic (no, this does not mean I am saying Giannis cannot pass) - I think it is incredibly erroneous to look at the comparison as "well, Jokic and Giannis are like both good at offense, but Giannis is good at defense too".

Jokic is going down as one of the best offensive players of all time. Giannis, not really.

[No-more-rings]

Why not? In Jokic's greatest season last year, Gianni's PER was .8 behind and in the last 4-5 seasons he's been all-time level elite efficiency wise (literally averages 30 PER). Sure, Jokic's 3pt% and FT% is considerably better and he's a passing savant so if you want to say Nikola's more varied three-level scoring and creation make him the more versatile threat I wouldn't complain. All I'd say is that Freak's impact comes from his dominance in or near the paint in which he helps create a crap ton of open shots and passing lanes all day long for his teammates, and he's been one of the elite scorers (28PPG) for the last five seasons. As well as a very good and willing passer.

I would just say they're both offensively dominant, just in different facets of the game.

Their scoring and PER may be close, but that doesn’t mean they’re comparable offensively. Jokic’s passing unlocks way more for his teammates, and his shooting allows for more postseason resiliency. You can say his defense swings it in his favor, which is what a lot appear to think. Calling them comparable on offense is like calling Iverson and Curry comparable on offense. It’s just simply not true.

This is sort of why I made this thread. People don’t want to admit that Giannis is a flawed offensive player as far as skill set goes. I don’t think Giannis is better offensively than peak Westbrook, let alone Jokic.

Iverson was an inefficient chucker. That's an awful example and quite disingenuous.

Raw and advanced data show Gianni as being an elite and efficient offensive player. Is he more varied than someone like Durant or Jokic? Of course not. I don't think anyone would claim that, even the most ardent of us Bucks fans.

I never said Giannis wasn’t elite offensively. He can be elite and still not on Jokic’s level of offense. They aren’t mutually exclusive things. The Ai vs Curry thing is perhaps a bit of hyperbole, a better example might be like calling Duncan and Dirk comparable on offense.

[CharityStripe34]

I think it's quite common for people to think volume scorers are close on offense. Looking at it, I really don't see how Giannis is "close" to Jokic on offense unless we are being very liberal with that term.

Even reduced to just scoring, Jokic was easily better than Giannis. He was comfortably ahead during the RS, and based on a small sample size crushes him in the post season. And that's the aspect that they're supposed to be close at.

Take into account shooting which the gap is truly gigantic and passing...which again the gap is truly gigantic (no, this does not mean I am saying Giannis cannot pass) - I think it is incredibly erroneous to look at the comparison as "well, Jokic and Giannis are like both good at offense, but Giannis is good at defense too".

Jokic is going down as one of the best offensive players of all time. Giannis, not really.

Are we arguing the certain types of ways to score? Of course Jokic is the much more varied/versatile scorer thanks to his better long-range shooting and demonstrably better FT%. Shooting and scoring are two different things.

And I think the "resilience" thing is a bit overblown. They're both fairly close as far as playoff production. Jokic is a way more efficient 3pt and FT shooter with his percentages. Gianni's playoff numbers are still really good despite the distance shooting weakness.

Jokic: 26.4ppg, 11.5 rpg, 6.4 apg (52%, 39%, 84%)
Gianni: 26.8ppg, 12.0rpg, 5.2apg (52%, 26%, 63%) *Thought about discounting his first playoffs when he was still a roleplayer but didn't

Not trying to be combative as, again, I LOVE Jokic's game. I guess some of the stuff we're arguing is semantics. But a lot of it I think is influenced by the 3pt explosion and how we are rethinking what it means to be a great offensive player.

[SickMother]

Giannis vs Jokic over the last four seasons...
A) .631 TS% | 785 TS Add | 31.1 OWS | 6.9 OBPM | 121 ORtg
B) .626 TS% | 686 TS Add | 37.2 OWS | 7.5 OBPM | 124 ORtg
(Giannis higher scoring volume showing up in TS Add, Jokic overall impact showing up in the last three, but still pretty small margins)

Curry vs AI, best four seasons...
A) .636 TS% | 1,204 TS Add | 43.3 OWS | 7.9 OBPM | 121 ORtg
B) .546 TS% | 146 TS Add | 27.0 OWS | 4.1 OBPM | 109 ORtg
(Not even a relevant comparison)

Duncan vs Dirk best four seasons...
A) .558 TS% | 513 TS Add | 33.1 OWS | 4.3 OBPM | 110 ORtg
B) .589 TS% | 706 TS Add | 44.5 OWS | 6.6 OBPM | 121 ORtg
(A little closer, but still much larger margins than Giannis vs Jokic)

[Ron Swanson]

I mean yeah, c'mon lol. Iverson vs. Curry is just hyper-exaggerating a gap that is nowhere near that large. Up until the 2020-21 season, Jokic didn't even have an argument over Giannis as a pure scorer (20 PPG on 60% TS vs. 28 PPG on 63% TS). If you think the gap on offense is that large then using that rationale, I'd throw it back and posit that the defensive gap is basically trying to compare Amare to Bill Russell. It cuts both ways.