The Jaylen Nowell Thread

[KGdaBom]

…you…think…having functional players on team-friendly deals is on a scale between bad and terrible.

i…okay.

It's a very strange kind of logic, but it actually makes total sense.

The way you hate the 3 point shot is the way I hate the Lux tax system. I just want a good old fashioned hard cap with a soft cap below it that can ONLY be breached by bird rights. Tax system invites big markets to buy wins. That said, if it is the game we must play, let’s it at least play it the way it is designed to be played. In an ideal world 4/13 would be a good thing for us. But let’s say we must move him (he just hates it here,) who can we get for 3.5?

The tax system is so punitive and the money pocketed by non tax paying teams really incentivizes teams to not try and just take the money to the bank.

[winforlose]

It's a very strange kind of logic, but it actually makes total sense.

The way you hate the 3 point shot is the way I hate the Lux tax system. I just want a good old fashioned hard cap with a soft cap below it that can ONLY be breached by bird rights. Tax system invites big markets to buy wins. That said, if it is the game we must play, let’s it at least play it the way it is designed to be played. In an ideal world 4/13 would be a good thing for us. But let’s say we must move him (he just hates it here,) who can we get for 3.5?

The tax system is so punitive and the money pocketed by non tax paying teams really incentivizes teams to not try and just take the money to the bank.

Yet Boston lost a finals series to a GSW team that had 40 million more base salary. What could that 40 million have bought Boston? Or take Wiggins and ? Off that roster to make the 40 mil work and does the result still follow?

[KGdaBom]

The way you hate the 3 point shot is the way I hate the Lux tax system. I just want a good old fashioned hard cap with a soft cap below it that can ONLY be breached by bird rights. Tax system invites big markets to buy wins. That said, if it is the game we must play, let’s it at least play it the way it is designed to be played. In an ideal world 4/13 would be a good thing for us. But let’s say we must move him (he just hates it here,) who can we get for 3.5?

The tax system is so punitive and the money pocketed by non tax paying teams really incentivizes teams to not try and just take the money to the bank.

Yet Boston lost a finals series to a GSW team that had 40 million more base salary. What could that 40 million have bought Boston? Or take Wiggins and ? Off that roster to make the 40 mil work and does the result still follow?

I bet as a business the Boston Celtics were extremely profitable.

[winforlose]

The tax system is so punitive and the money pocketed by non tax paying teams really incentivizes teams to not try and just take the money to the bank.

Yet Boston lost a finals series to a GSW team that had 40 million more base salary. What could that 40 million have bought Boston? Or take Wiggins and ? Off that roster to make the 40 mil work and does the result still follow?

I bet as a business the Boston Celtics were extremely profitable.

True, but so is GSW. That is the problem. If you corrupt the competition than the smaller market teams cannot compete. Their fans lose interest and spend less on merch and ticket sales. This is the same thing killing baseball. Hard caps protect the game, and a clean game has greater profit potential.

[Klomp]

We have yet to see if Minnesota will be a taxpaying team. We assume so, but it's not a guarantee. There are also varying degrees of taxpayers.

[winforlose]

We have yet to see if Minnesota will be a taxpaying team. We assume so, but it's not a guarantee. There are also varying degrees of taxpayers.

Trading for a supermax Rudy, extending KAT with a super max, and knowing we need to max Ant soon makes it really tough not to be. We could go the under the tax route, but if we do then the Rudy trade will go down in history as the worst move in franchise history with no close second. You don’t secure that level of talent and then skimp on the pieces around it. Especially at a time where teams are spending more and more and the competitive portion of the league is moving into the tax.

[Klomp]

We have yet to see if Minnesota will be a taxpaying team. We assume so, but it's not a guarantee. There are also varying degrees of taxpayers.

Trading for a supermax Rudy, extending KAT with a super max, and knowing we need to max Ant soon makes it really tough not to be. We could go the under the tax route, but if we do then the Rudy trade will go down in history as the worst move in franchise history with no close second. You don’t secure that level of talent and then skimp on the pieces around it. Especially at a time where teams are spending more and more and the competitive portion of the league is moving into the tax.

The Towns supermax doesn't start for two seasons. The Ant rookie max doesn't start for two seasons. Nowell's deal runs out after this year. This is the summer where we have a little more of a crunch in both roster space and maneuverability around the luxury tax. Also keep in mind that next summer the team will also still be owned by Taylor. While we are showing more aggression, we still don't know if that will mean paying the tax.

And if you think that not paying the tax for one year will turn the trade into the worst move in this franchise's history, you need to be better educated about the franchise's history.

[winforlose]

We have yet to see if Minnesota will be a taxpaying team. We assume so, but it's not a guarantee. There are also varying degrees of taxpayers.

Trading for a supermax Rudy, extending KAT with a super max, and knowing we need to max Ant soon makes it really tough not to be. We could go the under the tax route, but if we do then the Rudy trade will go down in history as the worst move in franchise history with no close second. You don’t secure that level of talent and then skimp on the pieces around it. Especially at a time where teams are spending more and more and the competitive portion of the league is moving into the tax.

The Towns supermax doesn't start for two seasons. The Ant rookie max doesn't start for two seasons. Nowell's deal runs out after this year. This is the summer where we have a little more of a crunch in both roster space and maneuverability around the luxury tax. Also keep in mind that next summer the team will also still be owned by Taylor. While we are showing more aggression, we still don't know if that will mean paying the tax.

And if you think that not paying the tax for one year will turn the trade into the worst move in this franchise's history, you need to be better educated about the franchise's history.

1. I know the franchise history.

2. My understanding is that A Rod and ML take over next year. https://www.nba.com/news/timberwolves-welcome-rodriguez-lore

3. I wasn’t talking about next year specifically, but long term.

4. Next year to get under the tax we need to let Dlo walk. That puts us somewhere in the 120s if we pick up Ant, MCD, and keep Prince. I have seen projections of the cap between 128-133 and the tax between 158 and 161. I am pasting a link to one of them at the bottom but there are other sources with different projections as well. If true (again these are projections,) we have between 6-9 million below the cap to work with to sign someone. We have bird rights on Nowell and Naz and we have the MLE to replace Dlo. I don’t know of an MLE PG that would be an upgrade, and a downgrade is a terrible move. Then the following year the super salaries kick in and we likely are a tax team.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2023/

Edit to add: Saving one year of tax is not a good reason to let Dlo go. Not wanting to overpay Dlo is not a good reason to let Dlo go. You let Dlo go for one of the following reasons:

1. You get a great trade offer and find a way to move him while improving your team.

2. He gets injured without a contract and wouldn’t be available next year anyway.

3. You feel he is hurting your team (either on court, off court, or both,) and your willing to lose the talent to avoid the damage.

4. He chooses to leave and you cannot convince him to stay. Hopefully in this situation you can sign and trade him for bird rights (and preserve the salary slot.)

The most important thing to remember is that once the salary slot is gone, we cannot get it back. Once we become a tax team we will miss it very, very much.

[Klomp]

Trading for a supermax Rudy, extending KAT with a super max, and knowing we need to max Ant soon makes it really tough not to be. We could go the under the tax route, but if we do then the Rudy trade will go down in history as the worst move in franchise history with no close second. You don’t secure that level of talent and then skimp on the pieces around it. Especially at a time where teams are spending more and more and the competitive portion of the league is moving into the tax.

The Towns supermax doesn't start for two seasons. The Ant rookie max doesn't start for two seasons. Nowell's deal runs out after this year. This is the summer where we have a little more of a crunch in both roster space and maneuverability around the luxury tax. Also keep in mind that next summer the team will also still be owned by Taylor. While we are showing more aggression, we still don't know if that will mean paying the tax.

And if you think that not paying the tax for one year will turn the trade into the worst move in this franchise's history, you need to be better educated about the franchise's history.

1. I know the franchise history.

2. My understanding is that A Rod and ML take over next year. https://www.nba.com/news/timberwolves-welcome-rodriguez-lore

3. I wasn’t talking about next year specifically, but long term.

4. Next year to get under the tax we need to let Dlo walk. That puts us somewhere in the 120s if we pick up Ant, MCD, and keep Prince. I have seen projections of the cap between 128-133 and the tax between 158 and 161. I am pasting a link to one of them at the bottom but there are other sources with different projections as well. If true (again these are projections,) we have between 6-9 million below the cap to work with to sign someone. We have bird rights on Nowell and Naz and we have the MLE to replace Dlo. I don’t know of an MLE PG that would be an upgrade, and a downgrade is a terrible move. Then the following year the super salaries kick in and we likely are a tax team.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2023/

Edit to add: Saving one year of tax is not a good reason to let Dlo go. Not wanting to overpay Dlo is not a good reason to let Dlo go. You let Dlo go for one of the following reasons:

1. You get a great trade offer and find a way to move him while improving your team.

2. He gets injured without a contract and wouldn’t be available next year anyway.

3. You feel he is hurting your team (either on court, off court, or both,) and your willing to lose the talent to avoid the damage.

4. He chooses to leave and you cannot convince him to stay. Hopefully in this situation you can sign and trade him for bird rights (and preserve the salary slot.)

The most important thing to remember is that once the salary slot is gone, we cannot get it back. Once we become a tax team we will miss it very, very much.

My comments have had absolutely nothing to do with Russell, he is irrelevant to this discussion.

But since you bring it up, it's not $31 million or nothing. It's not either he's here or a MLE PG is here. There are other paths to roster-building, which is why locking in a third bench piece to a $7-10 million deal longterm might not be the wisest use of resources.

[winforlose]

The Towns supermax doesn't start for two seasons. The Ant rookie max doesn't start for two seasons. Nowell's deal runs out after this year. This is the summer where we have a little more of a crunch in both roster space and maneuverability around the luxury tax. Also keep in mind that next summer the team will also still be owned by Taylor. While we are showing more aggression, we still don't know if that will mean paying the tax.

And if you think that not paying the tax for one year will turn the trade into the worst move in this franchise's history, you need to be better educated about the franchise's history.

1. I know the franchise history.

2. My understanding is that A Rod and ML take over next year. https://www.nba.com/news/timberwolves-welcome-rodriguez-lore

3. I wasn’t talking about next year specifically, but long term.

4. Next year to get under the tax we need to let Dlo walk. That puts us somewhere in the 120s if we pick up Ant, MCD, and keep Prince. I have seen projections of the cap between 128-133 and the tax between 158 and 161. I am pasting a link to one of them at the bottom but there are other sources with different projections as well. If true (again these are projections,) we have between 6-9 million below the cap to work with to sign someone. We have bird rights on Nowell and Naz and we have the MLE to replace Dlo. I don’t know of an MLE PG that would be an upgrade, and a downgrade is a terrible move. Then the following year the super salaries kick in and we likely are a tax team.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2023/

Edit to add: Saving one year of tax is not a good reason to let Dlo go. Not wanting to overpay Dlo is not a good reason to let Dlo go. You let Dlo go for one of the following reasons:

1. You get a great trade offer and find a way to move him while improving your team.

2. He gets injured without a contract and wouldn’t be available next year anyway.

3. You feel he is hurting your team (either on court, off court, or both,) and your willing to lose the talent to avoid the damage.

4. He chooses to leave and you cannot convince him to stay. Hopefully in this situation you can sign and trade him for bird rights (and preserve the salary slot.)

The most important thing to remember is that once the salary slot is gone, we cannot get it back. Once we become a tax team we will miss it very, very much.

My comments have had absolutely nothing to do with Russell, he is irrelevant to this discussion.

But since you bring it up, it's not $31 million or nothing. It's not either he's here or a MLE PG is here. There are other paths to roster-building, which is why locking in a third bench piece to a $7-10 million deal longterm might not be the wisest use of resources.

I am confused. You think there is a path to extending Dlo and staying under the tax next year? Let’s be generous and say it was 30 million, (less than what he wants but more than what he is worth,) now even without Prince and Knight we are around 140 million. That includes Dlo, Gobert, Towns, Ant, MCD, Minott, WMJ, JMAC, and KA. So the tax line is between 158 and 161 and we have 9 players. If we sign 5 minimums at around 2 mil cap hit each we get to around 150 million. That requires letting go of Knight, Prince, Nowell, Naz, Rivers, and Forbes unless we sign some of them at minimums. We could still use the MLE on spot 15 and stay just under the tax depending on where the line is. Is this your vision for our future?

[shrink]

I don’t want to stray too far from Jaylen Nowell in this thread, but I can’t resist to talk about the the soft cap and lux.

MIN under Taylor has gone over the lux four times, and paid a total of $25 mil in lux taxes, which was 18th most in the NBA. Once was going barely over by accident. People characterize Taylor as cheap, but he has said he was willing to pay the lux if his team was a true contender, and I believe that. But be aware that it cost him more than an extra $25 mil. A team still has to pay the player whatever is over the lux, and they also forego their part of the lux share - which bounced around, but used to be about $2-3 mil each season. A few owners in bad markets would regularly avoid the lux, and just collect those checks every summer.

Things are changing though. Some individual teams in the best locations (star power, new arena, sweet local tv deal, advertising) can generate enough revenues through a successful season to still make money after paying exorbitant lux taxes. Last season, teams paid $480 mil in taxes - triple the year before! Those taxes are split in half, and non-tax paying teams divide up their half. So last year, an owner that might have received $2-3 mil for their lux share would get $10 mil, and it looks like it will only keep rising. For teams that aren’t contending that are considering adding a $5 mil player, they need to decide if he will really provide $18 mil worth of additional value.

I think ownership in the NBA is changing too. Deep-pocketed owners and groups are buying teams as the value of teams have soared to new heights. Brand recognition and winning fuels new revenues, and we are seeing more and more teams willing to fly over the lux, by ever-increasing amounts. To keep up with this and maintain competitive parity, I think the NBA needs to fight the Player’s Union in the next CBA, to increase the magnitude of lux penalties and the repeater tax. I don’t think we’d ever see a hard cap - that would instantly lead to a player walk out that would hobble the cash cow - but they may accept it if they are offered another per cent of BRI from a potentially smaller pie.

I think with the Gobert trade, it’s clear that MIN plans to join the tax-payers, and I’m going to enjoy watching every minute of it!

[younggunsmn]

I'm a no on an extension for Nowell for now unless he takes a vando-special discount.
Remember, we got extremely lucky Shabazz Muhammad (out of the league 8 yrs after being drafted) turned down a $40 mil+ extension after a similarly small sample size of halfway decent play.

I'm in the show me category, I'd like nothing better than for him to earn Beasley's role from last year and excel in it.
We would be able to go up to around 4-54 on a mid season extension.

I also have this sinking feeling with us being a win-now team that Austin Rivers is going to eat significantly into his playing time (and I'm going to hate every last minute of it).

[winforlose]

I'm a no on an extension for Nowell for now unless he takes a vando-special discount.
Remember, we got extremely lucky Shabazz Muhammad (out of the league 8 yrs after being drafted) turned down a $40 mil+ extension after a similarly small sample size of halfway decent play.

I'm in the show me category, I'd like nothing better than for him to earn Beasley's role from last year and excel in it.
We would be able to go up to around 4-54 on a mid season extension.

I also have this sinking feeling with us being a win-now team that Austin Rivers is going to eat significantly into his playing time (and I'm going to hate every last minute of it).

Rivers wasn’t very good last year. 6 ppg, 1.7 boards, 1.3 assists in 22 minutes. If Finch uses him at SG2 it would damage my opinion of him. Forbes is higher on my SG chart than Rivers because at least he can shoot. Also, Rivers defense is highly overrated. Nowell should get first crack at it. Bowel’s drive and kick, isolation offense, and 3 level scoring are all things we badly need. Especially if Anderson has a poor shooting season (depends on his shoulder.)

[minimus]

I'm a no on an extension for Nowell for now unless he takes a vando-special discount.
Remember, we got extremely lucky Shabazz Muhammad (out of the league 8 yrs after being drafted) turned down a $40 mil+ extension after a similarly small sample size of halfway decent play.

I'm in the show me category, I'd like nothing better than for him to earn Beasley's role from last year and excel in it.
We would be able to go up to around 4-54 on a mid season extension.

I also have this sinking feeling with us being a win-now team that Austin Rivers is going to eat significantly into his playing time (and I'm going to hate every last minute of it).

Two things I want to see from Nowell as backup SG are: commitment to play solid defense and ability to involve bigs. He was close to unplayable last season when we need solid defense from guards. This year perimeter defense will be even more important, without Beverly (and at least on paper Okogie). His midrange game is elite, but with so two all NBA bigs at C/PF he also needs to play well next to them. So a bit of passing game is needed.

[shrink]

I was surprised to see Nowell only got into one game in the playoffs.

[minimus]

I was surprised to see Nowell only got into one game in the playoffs.

I dont see him as factor against MEM defense

[winforlose]

I was surprised to see Nowell only got into one game in the playoffs.

I dont see him as factor against MEM defense

I don’t see why he wouldn’t have been? Nowell is not as good as Ant, gonna be real clear about that. But, his shooting percentages were better from almost every spot on the floor. Ant has a fluidity and athleticism that Nowell will never touch. But Nowell is a legit shooter, iso scorer, and is decent at finishing through contact. The biggest concern would be his defense against Memphis, not his offense.

[shrink]

I was surprised to see Nowell only got into one game in the playoffs.

I dont see him as factor against MEM defense

I don’t see why he wouldn’t have been? Nowell is not as good as Ant, gonna be real clear about that. But, his shooting percentages were better from almost every spot on the floor. Ant has a fluidity and athleticism that Nowell will never touch. But Nowell is a legit shooter, iso scorer, and is decent at finishing through contact. The biggest concern would be his defense against Memphis, not his offense.

But the problem is that if his defense is so bad that he is unplayable in important playoff games, you can’t extend him for a big number. The team already has plenty of offense.

[winforlose]

I dont see him as factor against MEM defense

I don’t see why he wouldn’t have been? Nowell is not as good as Ant, gonna be real clear about that. But, his shooting percentages were better from almost every spot on the floor. Ant has a fluidity and athleticism that Nowell will never touch. But Nowell is a legit shooter, iso scorer, and is decent at finishing through contact. The biggest concern would be his defense against Memphis, not his offense.

But the problem is that if his defense is so bad that he is unplayable in important playoff games, you can’t extend him for a big number. The team already has plenty of offense.

Long answer got killed by website. Short answer, Nowell is 23 and can learn to play team defense as well as be covered by scheme. Our bench lacks shooting with JMAC, Anderson, Knight and Naz all being limited. We can and should pay for an offensive minded 6th man who can get an efficient 15-20 PPG for 10 million. Brunson, Mitchell, Beasley and Dlo are all very different players with defensive weaknesses and they all make a lot more than that.

[shrink]

I don’t see why he wouldn’t have been? Nowell is not as good as Ant, gonna be real clear about that. But, his shooting percentages were better from almost every spot on the floor. Ant has a fluidity and athleticism that Nowell will never touch. But Nowell is a legit shooter, iso scorer, and is decent at finishing through contact. The biggest concern would be his defense against Memphis, not his offense.

But the problem is that if his defense is so bad that he is unplayable in important playoff games, you can’t extend him for a big number. The team already has plenty of offense.

Long answer got killed by website. Short answer, Nowell is 23 and can learn to play team defense as well as be covered by scheme. Our bench lacks shooting with JMAC, Anderson, Knight and Naz all being limited. We can and should pay for an offensive minded 6th man who can get an efficient 15-20 PPG for 10 million. Brunson, Mitchell, Beasley and Dlo are all very different players with defensive weaknesses and they all make a lot more than that.

You don’t scheme the other four, better, players to help out the sixth man, especially in the playoffs. In the playoffs, the Wolves played Malik Beasley in all six games, for about 20 minutes a game. He wasn’t great 32% 3P, but better than Nowell (0-for-5 from 3 in 12 minutes, almost no other contribution). Plus Russell compounds Nowell’s lack of defense.

If you’re right, and he gets a lot better at defense in his fourth year in the league, he’s worth a better extension than the Wolves offered. But so far we haven’t seen it, and now that we are focusing on playoff success and not youth, we can’t lock a larger, longterm salary into a guy that hasn’t shown he is playable in the postseason. I like him and hopefully he demonstrates it this year, but right now, I don’t think the Wolves are the team where he fits well enough here to make a bigger extension offer right now.