In hindsight was the "Steph Effect" a good thing on the game?

[Lalouie]

inevitable

[HiDef]

At first it was really awful to watch, but the skill level has started to catch up with it. role players are making off the dribble threes. it's not so bad.

[michaelm]

If you simply plot 3pt% vs the ppp of everything else it makes sense that once those lines cross that 3pt attempts would skyrocket.

There's some nuance as to the effectiveness of jump shooting in close games as legs get tired, but you could plot that too

The Rockets were always seen as creating a lot of variance because of their approach, but it never did prove itself with a championship. The Warriors were more nuanced and smarter, and it's really not surprising they got it.

The Cavs are the team that rode a 3pt shooting binge to the finals in 2017. The mere threat of inserting Channing Frye at C giving LeBron 4-out would chase Jonas Valanciunas off the floor.

Morey at Houston with Harden took the approach to its logical conclusion ie Harden spamming for 3 free throws while not necessarily making a very serious attempt to make the 3 point shot, by far the most efficient method of scoring and definitely not a good direction for the game. In the end the officials didn’t award him free throws to the degree they did in the regular season when Houston got deep in the play-offs. It is a point for subtle definition whether this was unfair/constituted Houston being screwed by the league as designated by a previous poster. Variance also came into it as you say in terms of actually making 3 point shots, which even affects Curry, he obviously has play-off games when his shot doesn’t fall.

[NBA4Lyfe]

At first it was really awful to watch, but the skill level has started to catch up with it. role players are making off the dribble threes. it's not so bad.

harden popularized off the dribble 3's

[xchange55]

As others have said, the 3 point shot was already trending up before Steph. Sure it took off faster because of him but it was going to get here at some point.

I think it's a good thing for 2 main reasons:

1 - In the older days, the idea was you built your team around a 7 footer. Sure it made sense - a talented big is going to shot a high percentage, likely be a defensive presence and both of those helps you win games. Go look back at the list of league MVP's prior to the 1980's - it is dominated by centers. But finding talented 7 footers was a scarcity. I think it took interest away from the sport as it was so focused on finding the "taller" guys to win and made it stale/boring. Bird/Magic/Jordan was the start of the revolution where any position could be the dominant one.


2 - Back in the day, you turned off the game if the lead got up to 18-20 points. While I would say in today's game it's still difficult to come back from such a deficit (especially since the lead could just as easily balloon up to 30-35), there are definitely many more examples of the game at least becoming competitive again (with in 7-8 points).

It all boils down to the math. Shooting 60% from 2 point range is the same as shooting 40% from 3 point range. It's much easier to find players who can shoot 37-38% from 3 than a player who can shoot 57% from 2.

[Johnny Bball]

Read on Twitter

2015 was not that long ago but the above highlights the seismic shift the heavy emphasis the 3 point shot has had on players.

And we will ignore the 2 guys and name it after Curry.

[SichtingLives]

The modern NBA and the 3 point shot is like watching a toxic couple who refuses to break up. Analytics drove the point home that there is a arbitrary flukey place on the court, installed from a totally ancient era as a gimmick, that teams should be exploiting. But Steph gave the entire league the confidence to be bold and make the game as boring as possible with massive point fluctuations so fans have more ample opportunity to grab drinks, snacks and scroll through twitter. Let's be honest nobody is really paying attention for games that are pushing into baseball lengths so a drolling 3 point backdrop isn't the worst thing in the world, oddly.

[JordansBulls]

yes because he didn't hop from team to team and joined a losing organization before he arrived.

[One Last Shot]

Steph didn't have anything to do with the increase in 3 point shooting....

It was all analytics.

Steph and Harden make it work that's why majority follow suit, they are the data in that analytics you refer to. Main reason that someone like Bertans have that ridiculous contract.

[The Rebel]

Between analytics and rule changes it was only a matter of time before a team figured out how to exploit the 3 point line. Curry and the Warriors learned to exploit it, but too many teams are trying to copy that system and it just isn't as easy a people think. The thing about the Warriors is that it is not just the shooting, it is the constant movement and moving screens while knowing how to get open, and having a couple of athletic guys for their defense and finishing ability, and a passer like Draymond. Steph and a younger Klay were special players as is Draymond. The Warriors outworked everybody and took advantage of what they had, which was special players. The league is a copy cat league and several teams have tried to copy the Warriors and that is where they messed up, even Malone with the Nuggets tried to copy through the 1st two years after Jokic showed what he could do.

One of the things I miss about basketball throughout the 90s was the different offenses where teams would play to their guy's strength, the triangle, the princeton, random movement, drive and kick, pound the middle with constant drives, pick and roll, low post, there were so many different offensive strategies that games were fun to watch to see what teams were doing. To watch guys with different skills at their best, that changed with kids all wanting to be Jordan and teams trying to constantly run the iso game in the early 2000s and Shaq being so good that teams couldn't really compete in the low post. I think we are starting to see a mix of how teams are building now though, some teams are back to 2 bigs, some are focusing on 2 dominate wings, and then you got teams that are completely unorthodox like the Nuggets.

When another team dominates half the other teams will change to that style, and then wonder why they can't beat that team at it's own game. The smart teams will figure out how to build around their special players, if they have 1.

[NBA4Lyfe]

If you simply plot 3pt% vs the ppp of everything else it makes sense that once those lines cross that 3pt attempts would skyrocket.

There's some nuance as to the effectiveness of jump shooting in close games as legs get tired, but you could plot that too

The Rockets were always seen as creating a lot of variance because of their approach, but it never did prove itself with a championship. The Warriors were more nuanced and smarter, and it's really not surprising they got it.

The Cavs are the team that rode a 3pt shooting binge to the finals in 2017. The mere threat of inserting Channing Frye at C giving LeBron 4-out would chase Jonas Valanciunas off the floor.

Morey at Houston with Harden took the approach to its logical conclusion ie Harden spamming for 3 free throws while not necessarily making a very serious attempt to make the 3 point shot, by far the most efficient method of scoring and definitely not a good direction for the game. In the end the officials didn’t award him free throws to the degree they did in the regular season when Houston got deep in the play-offs. It is a point for subtle definition whether this was unfair/constituted Houston being screwed by the league as designated by a previous poster. Variance also came into it as you say in terms of actually making 3 point shots, which even affects Curry, he obviously has play-off games when his shot doesn’t fall.

the 3 point boom was started by the rockets not the warriors. the rockets under kevin mchale in 2013 were taking almost 35 threes a night, by and away ahead of other teams

also this game

Watch on YouTube

[WarriorGM]

That would make sense, if 2010 was the starting point of massive jumps in 3PAs like 2015 is. From 1980 (the start of the 3pt era) to 2014, the biggest jump in 3PAs from the previous season was 1.6, excluding the shortened line years for obvious reasons. From 2015 on it was 1.7 (biggest on record at the time) and that record was broken the next 4 straight years. Pure coincidence.

As already noted on the previous page, the large uptick begin in 2010-11, not 2015, after a brief leveling off of historically increasing 3 point usage.

You are using raw attempts which is distorted by the large pace increase that started in 2015.

We might as well create another bull narrative:

"The Steph Effect: Everyone plays much faster now!"

After a period flat lining the league was increasing 3's before the warriors won in 15, that's an absolute fact.

Steph Curry set a record in 3 points made in 2013 and it's gone up ever since. It was the same year Mark Jackson claimed Steph and Klay were the greatest shooting backcourt in NBA history.

The Warriors were the catalyst for the sea change not the Rockets. Even Morey did not go all in on 3 point shooting until the Warriors paved the way and D'Antoni was hired for the 2017 season. Morey obsessed over the Warriors.

[Rustyman]

The increase in the importance of the 3 pointer was aided by rules crippling defence allowing low-level players to shoot from outside. The rules essentially eliminating post play and reducing the importance to the mid-range game has resulted in a product that is virtually unwatchable (born out by the reduction in /viewership).

I have rarely watched a full game in the NBA since 2010 and I think that applies to a lot of older fans. The NBA product today is simply substandard but that is the result of the NBA emphasizing scoring over all else. It is as if the MLB changed the rules to make 20 run games the norm or the NFL changed rules to make 100 point games commonplace.

Scoring at all costs reduces the depth and complexity of sports but administrators with no imagination in all sports seem to think this is the answer to reduced audiences instead of making the game a balance between offence and defence.

[michaelm]

If you simply plot 3pt% vs the ppp of everything else it makes sense that once those lines cross that 3pt attempts would skyrocket.

There's some nuance as to the effectiveness of jump shooting in close games as legs get tired, but you could plot that too

The Rockets were always seen as creating a lot of variance because of their approach, but it never did prove itself with a championship. The Warriors were more nuanced and smarter, and it's really not surprising they got it.

The Cavs are the team that rode a 3pt shooting binge to the finals in 2017. The mere threat of inserting Channing Frye at C giving LeBron 4-out would chase Jonas Valanciunas off the floor.

Morey at Houston with Harden took the approach to its logical conclusion ie Harden spamming for 3 free throws while not necessarily making a very serious attempt to make the 3 point shot, by far the most efficient method of scoring and definitely not a good direction for the game. In the end the officials didn’t award him free throws to the degree they did in the regular season when Houston got deep in the play-offs. It is a point for subtle definition whether this was unfair/constituted Houston being screwed by the league as designated by a previous poster. Variance also came into it as you say in terms of actually making 3 point shots, which even affects Curry, he obviously has play-off games when his shot doesn’t fall.

the 3 point boom was started by the rockets not the warriors. the rockets under kevin mchale in 2013 were taking almost 35 threes a night, by and away ahead of other teams

also this game

Watch on YouTube

I wasn't buying into who started the increase in 3 point shooting, just saying that taken to its logical conclusion from a pure analytics viewpoint the most efficient method of scoring is garnering 3 free throws from an attempt, however desultory, at a 3 point shot.

I don't care whether Curry is responsible for the current 3 point shooting trend in the NBA, if indeed he would want to take any credit if this was the case. It is not entirely unreasonable for him to be identified with 3 point shooting as has been said however, since he has made the most 3 point shots surpassing the previous record holders for 3 point shots made in far fewer games than they took, and dominates the list of most 3 point shots made in individual games.

[mulamutti]

i don't think its because of Steph. But Steph is definitely the poster child of the analytics driven shift in spacing and shooting.

[dhsilv2]

That would make sense, if 2010 was the starting point of massive jumps in 3PAs like 2015 is. From 1980 (the start of the 3pt era) to 2014, the biggest jump in 3PAs from the previous season was 1.6, excluding the shortened line years for obvious reasons. From 2015 on it was 1.7 (biggest on record at the time) and that record was broken the next 4 straight years. Pure coincidence.

As already noted on the previous page, the large uptick begin in 2010-11, not 2015, after a brief leveling off of historically increasing 3 point usage.

You are using raw attempts which is distorted by the large pace increase that started in 2015.

We might as well create another bull narrative:

"The Steph Effect: Everyone plays much faster now!"

After a period flat lining the league was increasing 3's before the warriors won in 15, that's an absolute fact.

Steph Curry set a record in 3 points made in 2013 and it's gone up ever since. It was the same year Mark Jackson claimed Steph and Klay were the greatest shooting backcourt in NBA history.

The Warriors were the catalyst for the sea change not the Rockets. Even Morey did not go all in on 3 point shooting until the Warriors paved the way and D'Antoni was hired for the 2017 season. Morey obsessed over the Warriors.

Rockets were taking way more 3's in 2013 than the warriors. Gap narrowed a bit in 2014 but the gap widened in 2015 (3PAr .392 vs .311). Warriors closed the gap in 2016 but the rockets still had a higher 3 point attempt rate.

Then yes the rockets jumped but the rockets have always been the leaders in the 3 point revolution, not the warriors. At least not in terms of a team approach.

[CharityStripe34]

Math + evolution of officiating ("points of emphasis")+ better baseline athlete = modern NBA.

[SA37]

It was definitely not all analytics and Steph had a huge part.

Analytics didn’t just all of sudden find out 3pters were valuable in 2015. What changed was that Steph and the warriors actually won. Before that there was always a stigma about teams that focused too much on perimeter shot, despite what analytics said.

talking heads and some front offices didn’t think it was winning basketball in the playoffs, that it was just a gimmick that wouldn’t translate to the physical play of the postseason.

Some people may not remember when the Nash/D'Antoni Suns were actually criticized for how many 3s they took and that a perimeter focused jump shooting team would never win a championship.

That argument was used against the Curry Warriors right up until they won in 2015.

After a period flat lining the league was increasing 3's before the warriors won in 15, that's an absolute fact.

A few things here:

1. People forget how devastatingly important 3-point shooting was for teams like the Penny-Shaq Orlando teams, Olajuwon's championship Rockets teams. Dhsilv2's chart shows a huge jump around the time Houston was winning titles and Orlando was the top team in the East.

The drop-off from there is likely due to 2 things:

- Shaq leaving Orlando, rendering Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott basically useless, and Houston's short window closing.

- Defensive stalwarts, like Jordan's Bulls, Malone/Stockton's Utah, Robinson/Duncan's Spurs, and the Shaq/Kobe Lakers became the dominant teams. You also had Riley's Miami Heat and SVG's Knicks duking it out while struggling to get to 80 points. Later on you got the Duncan/Parker/Ginobili Spurs, Ben Wallace's Pistons, and the KG/Pierce/Allen Boston teams. These were probably the last teams to try to build a contender from a defense-first mentality.

2. While Nash and Phoenix did not win titles they came very close to making a serious run at the title and people -- while remaining critical -- started to believe that such a team could work, especially given how the rules had been changing in the NBA. The rules changed to the point you could no longer afford to have a large group of specialists or players who weren't versatile.

[dhsilv2]

Some people may not remember when the Nash/D'Antoni Suns were actually criticized for how many 3s they took and that a perimeter focused jump shooting team would never win a championship.

That argument was used against the Curry Warriors right up until they won in 2015.

After a period flat lining the league was increasing 3's before the warriors won in 15, that's an absolute fact.

A few things here:

1. People forget how devastatingly important 3-point shooting was for teams like the Penny-Shaq Orlando teams, Olajuwon's championship Rockets teams. Dhsilv2's chart shows a huge jump around the time Houston was winning titles and Orlando was the top team in the East.

The drop-off from there is likely due to 2 things:

- Shaq leaving Orlando, rendering Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott basically useless, and Houston's short window closing.

- Defensive stalwarts, like Jordan's Bulls, Malone/Stockton's Utah, Robinson/Duncan's Spurs, and the Shaq/Kobe Lakers became the dominant teams. You also had Riley's Miami Heat and SVG's Knicks duking it out while struggling to get to 80 points. Later on you got the Duncan/Parker/Ginobili Spurs, Ben Wallace's Pistons, and the KG/Pierce/Allen Boston teams. These were probably the last teams to try to build a contender from a defense-first mentality.

2. While Nash and Phoenix did not win titles they came very close to making a serious run at the title and people -- while remaining critical -- started to believe that such a team could work, especially given how the rules had been changing in the NBA. The rules changed to the point you could no longer afford to have a large group of specialists or players who weren't versatile.

Great post but you actually got me thinking about something else.

Perhaps that era was why we changed the term "role player" from the traditional "specialist" into a completely meaningless term for everyone else? Cause you're right, today we don't see a lot of specialists. A few sure. Curry....the there one, Thybull, Boban....but in general the league is without specialists and is full of "do it alls".

That said, pretty sure the rockets got their first title before the short line with the same idea with the wheel spoke offense. You're right they did use the line and perhaps even lead to other teams once the line shortened to copy?

[SA37]

Spoiler:

After a period flat lining the league was increasing 3's before the warriors won in 15, that's an absolute fact.

A few things here:

1. People forget how devastatingly important 3-point shooting was for teams like the Penny-Shaq Orlando teams, Olajuwon's championship Rockets teams. Dhsilv2's chart shows a huge jump around the time Houston was winning titles and Orlando was the top team in the East.

The drop-off from there is likely due to 2 things:

- Shaq leaving Orlando, rendering Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott basically useless, and Houston's short window closing.

- Defensive stalwarts, like Jordan's Bulls, Malone/Stockton's Utah, Robinson/Duncan's Spurs, and the Shaq/Kobe Lakers became the dominant teams. You also had Riley's Miami Heat and SVG's Knicks duking it out while struggling to get to 80 points. Later on you got the Duncan/Parker/Ginobili Spurs, Ben Wallace's Pistons, and the KG/Pierce/Allen Boston teams. These were probably the last teams to try to build a contender from a defense-first mentality.

2. While Nash and Phoenix did not win titles they came very close to making a serious run at the title and people -- while remaining critical -- started to believe that such a team could work, especially given how the rules had been changing in the NBA. The rules changed to the point you could no longer afford to have a large group of specialists or players who weren't versatile.

Great post but you actually got me thinking about something else.

Perhaps that era was why we changed the term "role player" from the traditional "specialist" into a completely meaningless term for everyone else? Cause you're right, today we don't see a lot of specialists. A few sure. Curry....the there one, Thybull, Boban....but in general the league is without specialists and is full of "do it alls".

That said, pretty sure the rockets got their first title before the short line with the same idea with the wheel spoke offense. You're right they did use the line and perhaps even lead to other teams once the line shortened to copy?

It's a convergence of things, like the league continuing to grow in popularity; more people playing, more the better the final, reduced pool of player will be.

You also saw massive shifts/overlaps in the skill sets for different positions, which had been traditionally organized by height and assigned specific skills. Point guards started scoring more/having reliable jumpers, shooting guards started handling the ball more, SFs needed to make 3s and be able to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket from the 3-point line, PFs and centers needed a face-up game and/or be capable of hitting an 18-foot jumper. Like in evolution, the weak get eliminated.

The common factor for all of them is that you needed to be able to shoot in order to create optimal spacing for the dominant centers of the era, which benefitted from the way illegal defense was called back then. Since shooting is a skill that can be learned and improved with practice, you've had guys who excelled in other areas transform their roles in the league by becoming lethal shooters (think Bruce Bowen, Brook Lopez, Lonzo Ball, Draymond Green, Shawn Marion...etc). From this you get the birth of stretch centers/4s and 3 & D guys.

As far as the shortened 3-point line, I don't remember when it was implemented, but it was around the time the Rockets were winning. That may also explain that massive rise over a ~3 year period. If nothing else, shortening the 3-point line by almost 2 feet started getting mid-range guys to take a step and take a 3. No questions this had an influence on the amount of 3-point shooting in the league.