Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson

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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#81 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:49 am

falcolombardi wrote:I feel important to mention that per gives a lot of value to thinghs like defensive rebounding

If we eliminate defensive rebounding from the equation does magic still have a big gap over nash?


I meant this is a very rough outline and of course you dont't JUST WANT TO LOOK AT THE BOX-SCORE but...

Steve Nash 3 year peak from 05-07:

▫️19.9 IA PPG/75

▫️12.6 IA APG/75

▫️51.6 FG%

▫️45.5 3P% (4.5 Attempts)

▫️90.9 FT%

▫️63.1 TS% (+9.5 rTS)

Led 2 top 10 offenses ever


Magic Johnson

Peak: '87-'89

•22 IA pts/75

•12 ast/75

+6.5 rTS%

If we look at single year peaks

Steve Nash in 2006-2007:

•20.6 IA pts/75
•12.4 ast/75
•53/45/89 shooting splits
•64% in the paint
•51% from midrange
•65.4 TS% (+11.3 rTS%)
•Led offense to (+7.4 rORTG)

'87 Magic Johnson:

•23.8 IA pts/75,+6.4 rTS%
•11.9 ast/75

•53/21/85 splits
•52.5 eFG%
•47.7 Load
•+7.3 team rOrtg

Below is adjusted shots created per 100 possessions:

Read on Twitter


Make of this what you will.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#82 » by AEnigma » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:00 pm

No-more-rings wrote:at some point we need to start to ask why why despite having goat level offensive impact metrics, Nash falls down a good bit on these sort of lists. Part of it is because he’s a legit lousy defender, and the other is players can’t be ranked by who’s team ortg was higher.

… or maybe it is because a good chunk of people still just glance at basketball-reference and make their decisions off that. :-?

If the argument is that Nash’s defensive disadvantages make up for his offensive advantages relative to guys like Harden or whatever, fine. I disagree, because both need to be hidden even if Harden has certain areas where he can be more of a schematic contributor, but the argument has some basis. However, instead we see Harden is better because he scores so much more! Look at his points per game and PER and BPM, such raw production! At that point why not say 2017 Isaiah Thomas was a higher peak than Nash too. :roll:

falcolombardi wrote:There are some short prime/great peak guys that may go unnoticed since they didnt have stand out careers that we may need to consider

-Penny hardaway

Absolutely, especially for the era relativists here. Penny was a bit like if Manu could play real minutes (at least on offence). Incredibly gifted scorer and passer, fit well with different teammates, and consistently elevated his teams. Only thing holding me back are era concerns: would he stand out as much as he did in the 1990s when compared to monumental load beaters Harden and Luka? I think Luka is still raw enough that I prefer Penny in that comparison. Less clear about Harden.

Bernard king

All-time scorer. Not a notable defender, not much of a passer. Fulfilled a necessary role on those Knicks teams, but I am unsure how much value he retains otherwise because scoring is pretty much all he does.
Going seven games against the 1984 Celtics is a nice accomplishment, but the Celtics never really were in danger of losing that series. They won every home game comfortably. One player scoring well does not in itself generate elite offence (oh look I managed to bring it back to Nash 8-) )

ralph sampson? (Unfamiliar with him)

Only if this were an NCAA peaks project. In the NBA, I would give him a lower peak than Greg Oden.

connie hawkins (already considered by one poster)

I respect the vote but I think it will be tough for me to get there in much the same way it will be tough for me to vote for Elgin Baylor.

kevin jonhson? (How high to be on his peak?)

Eh not really seeing how he separates himself much from the point guard pack. Among short peaks/primes, I would look more at D-Will as a capable scoring volume passer.

McGrady? (How do we evaluate 2003?)

McGrady is annoying because he legitimately could be one of the three to five most naturally talented wings in league history, but he never ended up doing anything with it. His three series 2002-05 are all pretty fine to good but are not much to go on. So compared to someone like Erving, I can ask, “Hm, is there anything Erving does better that should leave him as a better choice in the postseason,” and the answer would kind-of by default be “actually playing in the postseason”.

It is not as if he went up against all-time squads; he was losing to the Baron Davis Hornets, the pre-Rasheed Pistons, and the 2005 transitionary Mavericks. And as soon as we expand outside that frame his numbers start looking a fair bit worse, and still against some historically uninspiring teams. Then for 2003 itself, it is a clear outlier for his standards. 1990 Ewing is a bit of an outlier, but only in the sense he picked up his volume for that season. 2003 McGrady had outlier volume and extreme outlier efficiency, driven in large part by a hot streak outside the arc which he never came close to replicating. For those of us who care about sample sizes and variance, what do we make of that? There is a definite floor for how low I am willing to go, because I do think he has pretty clear value as a scorer, creator, and physically capable defender, but I do not think it is a given to take him over guys like Harden or Penny.

Any others?

I would throw Marques Johnson (and D-Will) in there, plus the names I mention to Proxy.

Proxy wrote:Some players that came to mind when I was thinking a few weeks ago were(some that seem somewhat overlooked generally ig)

Nate Thurmond
Bob Lanier
Dave Cowens
Mark Price
Grant Hill
Alonzo Mourning
Paul George
Luka Doncič
But not all of them are necessarily short and I do think it's early for most of them(tho i'm pretty high on Zo and Luka)

Agree on most of these (case for Price I think needs to be heavily modernised; case for Hill is tough for me because of how he struggled to handle scoring loads in the postseason). Luka should be discussed, and 2019 Paul George is worth a mention too, but if Luka is in the discussion I think that also opens the door wide for Butler and Tatum as two-way alternatives and Lillard as an offensive rival.

Mourning has been tough for me because of those series against old Ewing and the Knicks. I mean, elite two-way big, always going to respect that to a point, but just not the best look.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#83 » by LA Bird » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:13 pm

Here are the results for round 20

Winner: 94 Robinson

There were 13 voters in this round: SickMother, Dutchball97, AEnigma, Proxy, Samurai, trelos6, falcolombardi, DraymondGold, trex_8063, iggymcfrack, CharityStripe34, Ron Swanson, f4p

A total of 34 seasons received at least 1 vote: 05 Nash, 06 Nash, 06 Nowitzki, 07 Nash, 07 Nowitzki, 10 Nowitzki, 11 Nowitzki, 14 Durant, 16 Durant, 16 Leonard, 17 Durant, 17 Leonard, 18 Durant, 18 Harden, 19 Harden, 19 Leonard, 20 Davis, 20 Harden, 50 Mikan, 51 Mikan, 58 Pettit, 59 Pettit, 62 Pettit, 68 Hawkins, 76 Erving, 79 Malone, 81 Erving, 82 Malone, 83 Malone, 90 Barkley, 93 Barkley, 94 Robinson, 95 Robinson, 96 Robinson

Top 10 seasons and H2H record between them
94 Robinson: 0.706 (48-20)
17 Leonard: 0.609 (56-36)
76 Erving: 0.575 (42-31)
95 Robinson: 0.527 (29-26)
96 Robinson: 0.491 (27-28)
11 Nowitzki: 0.472 (34-38)
17 Durant: 0.456 (26-31)
83 Malone: 0.394 (26-40)
16 Durant: 0.314 (16-35)
14 Durant: 0.314 (16-35)
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#84 » by MyUniBroDavis » Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:28 pm

f4p wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:I probably pick harden as a player but it’s hard to get a peak season for him, he took the KD Warriors to 7 sounds great until you think about the series and remember why the harden got clowned for it instead of being praised after, their defense was incredible that series but their offense let them down and harden was a big part of that, whereas 2019 wasn’t as impressive in general


and thus the insanity of the james harden narrative. he can't even get credit for stuff like this. when kevin durant joined the warriors, everyone said it ruined the NBA and they were an unbeatable juggernaut. and then in 2017 and 2018, they seemed to prove it, going 28-3 in the playoffs in the 7 series that weren't against the rockets. 8-1 against this fairly good lebron fellow. 28-3! their record against the healthy rockets? 2-3. a team that loses less than 10% of its playoff games being down 2-3. with the other teams best player putting up 28/6/6 against the warriors #1 playoff defense. with a +15 on/off in the series. take the name harden off that accomplishment and people are raving about it. the response for harden? awful. atrocious. typical james harden choke job. like seriously. something no one could have even imagined 18 months prior, then it damn near happened and harden was a loser for not pulling it off, with his best teammate hurt!

in a lot of ways, it reminded me a lot of the 2015 finals and lebron. the cavs because their best offensive players were hurt and the rockets because some of their better offensive role players (ryan anderson, nene and gerald green) were atrocious defenders who could never be on the court with the warriors, knew they weren't going to beat an overwhelming warriors team 130-128. they would have to win ugly and try to win 98-96. pile as many hard-nosed defenders on the court as possible and have your best players just iso iso iso, run clock, try to slow the game down and win ugly. it's why nene played 6 minutes, ryan anderson played 29 garbage minutes, and green got 18 mpg but still a decent amount of garbage time. if you think the rockets could have tried ryan anderson, well he played 8 minutes in game 7 and more than provided the margin of victory for the warriors with a -12.

and in both cases for the cavs/rockets, it worked as much as could possibly be expected. it tanked the best players' offense, and their own team's offense, but it worked. lebron supercharged it compared to harden, because, well, he's lebron, but he was actually less efficient than harden (48 TS% vs 54 TS%) and just went crazy on the volume (36/13/9 vs 28/6/6), but it was the same principle. chris paul put up only 20/6 on 52 TS% while also iso'ing as much as possible. and both teams ground out some ugly close games and damn near won series no one expected them to win. lebron gets praised to the end of the earth for taking a lesser warriors team to 6 and harden gets clowned for taking a better team to 7 and maybe winning if cp3 is actually healthy. and it's not like anyone is saying you have to say harden is as good as lebron, just people have to stop being ridiculous that the best player on a team almost beat an unbeatable team while putting up very respectable numbers with good on/off numbers was somehow terrible.


also, it would be funny if someone described 2019 with the name taken off. yeah, this guy had arguably the greatest scoring season ever, scored the most points per 100 in league history, went on a historic scoring streak while his team started winning a bunch, then in the playoffs he played an absolutely stacked all-time great team and took them to 6 super-close games while averaging 35 ppg.

oh man, is that like 1987 jordan? i'm telling you, he's the GOAT for a reason.
nah, it was 2019 james harden.
trash.



I’ll respond more in-depth later, but the main thing rotation wise was Ryan Anderson leaving the rotation and then shortening it, they didn’t go all defensive no offense all of a sudden lol.

The “rockets had to play it tough!” Narrative has always been absurd considering their offense was literally the exact same as they played it all season. The rockets offense is based on 5 out or 4 out 1 in iso, and hardens ability to score effectively off of that. (Well harden and Paul).

I think it’s fair to say harden was good on D that series, sure, but I don’t think anyone can watch it and say he was a game changer defensively vs being a good part of an elite defense. Sum of its parts type energy, like a good shooter on a heliocentric offense. PJ Tucker was the main guy that made the switching D possible, but while I think his defensive impact was great +49.4 and the 2nd rockets player with a Positive net rtg doesn’t mean he had the GOAT defensive series for example.

Offensively I don’t think that lebron being +51.6 on that end means he had a GOAT tier offensive series, when the boost is more so how bad the offense was with him off the floor than the team being good with him on the floor.

Offense and defense have some overall but that doesn’t mean that deciding to suck on one end of the floor means you’ll be better at the other when you are doing the exact same damn thing on the court lol.

At the end of the day, impact should be seen as performance driven, and over long samples that holds true. Over a small sample like a series it can be a signal, in terms of, hey this guys box score numbers weren’t that great but their offense popped off, or this guy scored so well but the team didn’t succeed much, but over a series you should be able to come to your own conclusions based off watching what happened

The offensive system is based upon the rockets creating high leverage iso situations for Harden, letting teams defend him on an island so he can dominate 1v1 or make the right read as a passer, and getting switches so he can get favorable matchups.

You control what happens when you are on the court

This is quite literally exactly what they did during the Warriors series as well. It’s not as if harden wasn’t getting those switches at all either, I would be suprised if less than half of hardens on ball half court plays where he scored or created a shot for a teammate where there wasn’t a super clear breakdown unrelated to the play wasn’t on Curry/bell/looney.

Like it’s ridiculous to say that the rockets defense was possible because harden was missing shots he usually made offensively running the same things he usually did, it’s such an attempt to explain a process through results rather than the other way around because it makes literally 0 sense when you think about it.

Like if the argument for harden that series essentially comes down to that + that a team comprised of one dimensional spacers that will shoot on site if they catch the ball no matter what + 2 iso players struggled offensively when their 2 iso players didn’t play over a 7 game sample, then it’s kind of ridiculous right?

Like we are literally saying

“Yeah so the rockets decided to do the exact same thing they always did on offense but because they are so smart they decided to miss shots so the Warriors would be mentally rattled and miss their own shots”

It’s fair to say, the rockets strength in this series was their switch defense which harden played a good part in as someone that was good defensively on ball during the series, in the sense that they didn’t try to attack him. Sure.

To extend that to, therefore his offensive struggles were actually part of the gameplan is absurd.

When it comes to like, literally a series, what happens on the court might not show up in the impact data. In this case, harden being a +15.5 was more so how bad the offense was with him off the court than how good it was witth him on the court, which makes sense given the construction of the team is based on enhancement and fit vs in a vacuum goodness, and that they aren’t really immune at all to mismatch hunting other than being good at sending help (which the rockets counter well with anyways)

His 2019 series was great, and I do think that I would put 2019 harden over Nash without too much trouble, and he’s probably somewhere in this range for me. But I think we do need to realize his volume is so high because how that team is constructed. He wasn’t scoring that much out of necessity it was by design, it’s probably the most heliocentric offensive team style ever, in terms of isolation slashing 5 out or 4 out 1 in.

I agree he’s a bit disrespected.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson 

Post#85 » by falcolombardi » Tue Aug 23, 2022 5:43 pm

I dont have any issue with the admiral, i think he is fantastic but i honestly wonder if he has any season as good as, lets say, 2020 davis?

He has better regular seasons no doubt, but no playoffs on that level

and the claim he is better as a defense #1, offense #2 kind of guy on a team does apply to 2020 davis too who may have just done it better (so the argument for robinson over davis would need to be regular season based)

I feel like a lot of players suddendly would look a lot better if you let them be the second option and not asked to shoulder that role.

Would 1990 ewing be much worse behind a better offensive "alpha" than robinson? And ewing probably wont enter the discussion until well into the 30's or 40's
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson 

Post#86 » by Proxy » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:14 pm

falcolombardi wrote:Would 1990 ewing be much worse behind a better offensive "alpha" than robinson? And ewing probably wont enter the discussion until well into the 30's or 40's


I would say maybe worse but i'm not sure to the degree he would be and it could be overstated, I do think Robinson's massive passing edge gives him a big edge there when comparing to Ewing, probably enough for me to prefer him in those circumstances. Also for that it's because Robinson is also better defensively(by a clear margin to me), so i'm fine with having a somewhat decent gap ranking wise with those two, but no disagreement from me on the Davis point.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson 

Post#87 » by AEnigma » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:28 pm

Ewing should make the top thirty, or at least be in regular discussions by then. I am not considering him quite yet — agree his offence has a clear ceiling, although that is not exactly unique among second tier bigs — but he is absolutely in that tier of guys who could have led a title team with just slightly better support. I might be considering him at #26.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson 

Post#88 » by falcolombardi » Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:07 pm

Proxy wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:Would 1990 ewing be much worse behind a better offensive "alpha" than robinson? And ewing probably wont enter the discussion until well into the 30's or 40's


I would say maybe worse but i'm not sure to the degree he would be and it could be overstated, I do think Robinson's massive passing edge gives him a big edge there when comparing to Ewing, probably enough for me to prefer him in those circumstances. Also for that it's because Robinson is also better defensively(by a clear margin to me), so i'm fine with having a somewhat decent gap ranking wise with those two, but no disagreement from me on the Davis point.



My main point goes more than the argument used with robinson to excuse his struggles as a offense engine (that he shouldnt be expected to be a team first option) can apply to a ton of other players

If we are fine with excusing big struggles in a player cause they could do better behind a better offensive players, then why not prop up karl malone or patrick ewing by the same token?

I have robinson ahead of ewing too (more athletic, maybe a better passer, better defender) but i have never seen anyone excuse ewing cause his offensive issues would be lesser if he played with a better offensive star than him

A lot of star guys who cannot quite cut it as main star or lone star would look better if you put them behind a tim duncan level player
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#89 » by f4p » Wed Aug 24, 2022 1:38 am

MyUniBroDavis wrote:I’ll respond more in-depth later, but the main thing rotation wise was Ryan Anderson leaving the rotation and then shortening it, they didn’t go all defensive no offense all of a sudden lol.


i mean sure, teams shorten playoff rotations, but the cumulative effect of no ryan anderson (a 30 foot 3 point shooting PF), no nene, less green, and mbah-a-moute (best 2-man +/- with harden in 2018 i believe) was a lot less of the 2018 regular season offense on the court.

The “rockets had to play it tough!” Narrative has always been absurd considering their offense was literally the exact same as they played it all season. The rockets offense is based on 5 out or 4 out 1 in iso, and hardens ability to score effectively off of that. (Well harden and Paul).


i mean we were playing arguably the most talented team ever and trying to stop their ridiculous offense. and they just so happened to have the #1 playoff defense as well. our regular season offense wasn't nearly as iso iso iso as that series from what i remember. we ran a lot of stuff in the regular season against the regular defenses of the league. it's not like it's crazy to think we showed up against a crazy good opponent who presents all sorts of crazy challenges and tried to be as extreme as we could to cope with them.


At the end of the day, impact should be seen as performance driven, and over long samples that holds true. Over a small sample like a series it can be a signal, in terms of, hey this guys box score numbers weren’t that great but their offense popped off, or this guy scored so well but the team didn’t succeed much, but over a series you should be able to come to your own conclusions based off watching what happened


ok but what happened is the rockets played good D and harden put up 28.7/6/6 against an elite defense and nearly beat an unbeatable team, despite not having his 2nd best player for 2 games. 30,000 foot view that seems obviously very good. steph put up 25/6.6/5.7 on 58 TS%, which means his TS% actually fell off a little more than harden's. it was a tough series. if you want better than 28.7/6/6 then you are looking at a pretty short list of players. and apparently even one of the guys on that short list (lebron) couldn't figure out how to translate that to wins against that juggernaut.


The offensive system is based upon the rockets creating high leverage iso situations for Harden, letting teams defend him on an island so he can dominate 1v1 or make the right read as a passer, and getting switches so he can get favorable matchups.

You control what happens when you are on the court

This is quite literally exactly what they did during the Warriors series as well. It’s not as if harden wasn’t getting those switches at all either, I would be suprised if less than half of hardens on ball half court plays where he scored or created a shot for a teammate where there wasn’t a super clear breakdown unrelated to the play wasn’t on Curry/bell/looney.


ok, and lot's of people get switches. the warriors had the #1 playoff defense for a reason. because they can make most situations tough. it's not like you get iso'd on bell and the other 4 warriors just stand and look (sometimes bell just blatantly fouls you and scott foster ignores it, but i'm not bitter).


Like it’s ridiculous to say that the rockets defense was possible because harden was missing shots he usually made offensively running the same things he usually did, it’s such an attempt to explain a process through results rather than the other way around because it makes literally 0 sense when you think about it.


i don't know where i said that at all. i said we were willing to live with a more iso heavy (even than normal), less offensively-slanted roster (i.e. less spacing) in a similar approach to what lebron went through in 2015 without kyrie and love. even more iso, against maybe the best defense in the league, with less spacing than normal, with chris paul missing 2 games is asking for a decrease in efficiency, with the hope it is cancelled out by better defense.

“Yeah so the rockets decided to do the exact same thing they always did on offense but because they are so smart they decided to miss shots so the Warriors would be mentally rattled and miss their own shots”


huh?

To extend that to, therefore his offensive struggles were actually part of the gameplan is absurd.


i extended it to that we were willing to live with less offense (similar to 2015 cleveland, who did it of injury necessity and not roster and ridiculous opponent necessity) to try to get a better overall result.


When it comes to like, literally a series, what happens on the court might not show up in the impact data. In this case, harden being a +15.5 was more so how bad the offense was with him off the court than how good it was witth him on the court, which makes sense given the construction of the team is based on enhancement and fit vs in a vacuum goodness, and that they aren’t really immune at all to mismatch hunting other than being good at sending help (which the rockets counter well with anyways)


i mean i have someone telling me chris paul is the solution to all of life's problem and explains why harden's team was good. now harden's team is supposed to fall off without him, even though chris paul running the backups is seemingly the best possible way to avoid that happening. if cp3 also failed against the warriors defense, then presumably they were just very tough and it helps explain why they went 28-3 against everyone else.

His 2019 series was great, and I do think that I would put 2019 harden over Nash without too much trouble, and he’s probably somewhere in this range for me. But I think we do need to realize his volume is so high because how that team is constructed. He wasn’t scoring that much out of necessity it was by design, it’s probably the most heliocentric offensive team style ever, in terms of isolation slashing 5 out or 4 out 1 in.

I agree he’s a bit disrespected.


but why was it not out of necessity? it's not like MDA just wanted to see how much harden could score. i'm pretty sure in 2019, james harden iso's were more efficient than the best offense in the league. and his team sucked before he started averaging 40, then he went crazy and they started winning. i'm not sure less volume wouldn't quickly result in less wins.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson 

Post#90 » by f4p » Wed Aug 24, 2022 1:49 am

AEnigma wrote:Ewing should make the top thirty, or at least be in regular discussions by then. I am not considering him quite yet — agree his offence has a clear ceiling, although that is not exactly unique among second tier bigs — but he is absolutely in that tier of guys who could have led a title team with just slightly better support. I might be considering him at #26.



how much do you hold the 1994 finals against him? i know hakeem is a great defender, but ewing had a 39 TS%. i'm sure it's happened, but i haven't yet run across a series at that level by any relatively great player. i did something looking at sub-46 TS% playoff series because i noticed larry bird had a crazy number of them (5), but larry's pretty much all fell in the 45-46% range. and most great players maybe have 1 such series and some never had one at all. 39 TS% is just some sort of next level bad. and it was a very close series where every game was decided by single digits, including game 6 where it was decided by 2 (the starks block) and ewing went 6-20 that game. as about a +2 SRS series favorite. it was right there. i know he set the finals block record, but man.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson 

Post#91 » by AEnigma » Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:19 am

f4p wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Ewing should make the top thirty, or at least be in regular discussions by then. I am not considering him quite yet — agree his offence has a clear ceiling, although that is not exactly unique among second tier bigs — but he is absolutely in that tier of guys who could have led a title team with just slightly better support. I might be considering him at #26.

how much do you hold the 1994 finals against him? i know hakeem is a great defender, but ewing had a 39 TS%. i'm sure it's happened, but i haven't yet run across a series at that level by any relatively great player. i did something looking at sub-46 TS% playoff series because i noticed larry bird had a crazy number of them (5), but larry's pretty much all fell in the 45-46% range. and most great players maybe have 1 such series and some never had one at all. 39 TS% is just some sort of next level bad. and it was a very close series where every game was decided by single digits, including game 6 where it was decided by 2 (the starks block) and ewing went 6-20 that game. as about a +2 SRS series favorite. it was right there. i know he set the finals block record, but man.

I would only vote for 1990 (as in, no alternate vote). After that, his knees start becoming a visibly limiting factor. Still a good player, but no longer that utterly dominant athlete. He maybe becomes smarter on defence later (partly by experience, partly out of necessity), but I think scheme and roster changes under Pat Riley were more significant factors than any fundamental change in Ewing’s ability to anchor defences.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#92 » by DraymondGold » Wed Aug 24, 2022 4:06 am

AEnigma wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:at some point we need to start to ask why why despite having goat level offensive impact metrics, Nash falls down a good bit on these sort of lists. Part of it is because he’s a legit lousy defender, and the other is players can’t be ranked by who’s team ortg was higher.

… or maybe it is because a good chunk of people still just glance at basketball-reference and make their decisions off that. :-?

If the argument is that Nash’s defensive disadvantages make up for his offensive advantages relative to guys like Harden or whatever, fine. I disagree, because both need to be hidden even if Harden has certain areas where he can be more of a schematic contributor, but the argument has some basis. However, instead we see Harden is better because he scores so much more! Look at his points per game and PER and BPM, such raw production! At that point why not say 2017 Isaiah Thomas was a higher peak than Nash too. :roll:


Just wanted to do a quick reply here. Obviously I don't put much weight to PER / other basketball-reference stats, as plenty of my posts have shown haha :lol:

But even if Nash has "goat level offensive impact metrics", he certainly doesn't have the best overall metrics across the board.
-His best plus minus metric is regular season RAPM.
- But he's behind Robinson/Paul/Dirk in both regular season and postseason AuPM. KD's ahead in RS AuPM, Kawhi's ahead in PS AuPM
-He's behind all 5 of those players (as well as Erving / AD) in combined RS/Playoff PIPM
-He's behind Robinson in WOWY, and not ahead of peak Kawhi by much
-ESPN’s RPM rates him poorly compared to this group
-And like y'all said, he's near the bottom of the group in BPM

So... he certainly has some stats where he's good (RAPM). But it's far from goat-level impact across the board. I'm not sure how much this lack of impact-metric dominance is from not having GOAT-level offense vs being a negative defender. I'd guess it's a loss on defense though. Personally I don't have him as my GOAT offensive player (though he's certainly top 5), but to me he's the clear worst defender of the Tier 1/2 Offensive Players ever.

falcolombardi wrote:I dont have any issue with the admiral, i think he is fantastic but i honestly wonder if he has any season as good as, lets say, 2020 davis?

He has better regular seasons no doubt, but no playoffs on that level

and the claim he is better as a defense #1, offense #2 kind of guy on a team does apply to 2020 davis too who may have just done it better (so the argument for robinson over davis would need to be regular season based)

I feel like a lot of players suddendly would look a lot better if you let them be the second option and not asked to shoulder that role.

Would 1990 ewing be much worse behind a better offensive "alpha" than robinson? And ewing probably wont enter the discussion until well into the 30's or 40's
Hi falcolombardi!

As one of this project's Robinson proponents, thought I'd give a quick reply. I definitely think he has a season or two (or three :lol: ) better than Davis.

As a defensive #1: I have Robinson as a guaranteed top 10 defensive player ever, quite possibly top 5, and that's certainly a pretty common stance. Our last Greatest Defenders project ranked him as the 3rd best Defensive Center ever, and the only non-centers I can really see making an argument for is Duncan or KG (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1792345), which would mean this board's at least open to the idea of him being Top 5 defender of all time. I... can't really see any argument of AD being that high.

As for Offensive #2, I'm more open to an argument for Davis. But just like people have contextual concerns for Robinson's offense (they think he lacks resilience and his years with Duncan overstate his value), there's also concerns for Davis' offense. His best performance was in the bubble, and while I definitely don't think it's a "fake ring" or a "Disney ring" that it "needs an asterisk" or any other crap like that, you could certainly make the argument that he benefited more than most from hot shooting and from the added rest.

There's counters to both of those stances (I've used film study to argue Robinson's more resilient than the reputation and skill-analysis to argue he's more scalable as an offensive #2 than many... I'm sure others would argue everyone else got the same shooting conditions / rest AD did so it should have been an "even playing field"). But just thought it was worth mentioning the other side.

As for Ewing, I have him a step below Robinson as a #1 Defender (so does the past Greatest Defenders project, which ranked Ewing 8th among centers to Robinson's 3rd). I also have his ability as an Offensive #1 as worse than Robinson, and his scalability as an Offensive #2 as worse... Ewing's volume scoring is worse, as is his efficiency, as is his off-ball ability, and his creation/passing.

And just to mention, Robinson dominates AD and Ewing in the majority of impact metrics, including in postseason stats like PS PIPM.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#93 » by NBA4Lyfe » Wed Aug 24, 2022 4:24 am

AEnigma wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:at some point we need to start to ask why why despite having goat level offensive impact metrics, Nash falls down a good bit on these sort of lists. Part of it is because he’s a legit lousy defender, and the other is players can’t be ranked by who’s team ortg was higher.

… or maybe it is because a good chunk of people still just glance at basketball-reference and make their decisions off that. :-?

If the argument is that Nash’s defensive disadvantages make up for his offensive advantages relative to guys like Harden or whatever, fine. I disagree, because both need to be hidden even if Harden has certain areas where he can be more of a schematic contributor, but the argument has some basis. However, instead we see Harden is better because he scores so much more! Look at his points per game and PER and BPM, such raw production! At that point why not say 2017 Isaiah Thomas was a higher peak than Nash too. :roll:

falcolombardi wrote:There are some short prime/great peak guys that may go unnoticed since they didnt have stand out careers that we may need to consider

-Penny hardaway

Absolutely, especially for the era relativists here. Penny was a bit like if Manu could play real minutes (at least on offence). Incredibly gifted scorer and passer, fit well with different teammates, and consistently elevated his teams. Only thing holding me back are era concerns: would he stand out as much as he did in the 1990s when compared to monumental load beaters Harden and Luka? I think Luka is still raw enough that I prefer Penny in that comparison. Less clear about Harden.

Bernard king

All-time scorer. Not a notable defender, not much of a passer. Fulfilled a necessary role on those Knicks teams, but I am unsure how much value he retains otherwise because scoring is pretty much all he does.
Going seven games against the 1984 Celtics is a nice accomplishment, but the Celtics never really were in danger of losing that series. They won every home game comfortably. One player scoring well does not in itself generate elite offence (oh look I managed to bring it back to Nash 8-) )


ralph sampson? (Unfamiliar with him)

Only if this were an NCAA peaks project. In the NBA, I would give him a lower peak than Greg Oden.

connie hawkins (already considered by one poster)

I respect the vote but I think it will be tough for me to get there in much the same way it will be tough for me to vote for Elgin Baylor.

kevin jonhson? (How high to be on his peak?)

Eh not really seeing how he separates himself much from the point guard pack. Among short peaks/primes, I would look more at D-Will as a capable scoring volume passer.

McGrady? (How do we evaluate 2003?)

McGrady is annoying because he legitimately could be one of the three to five most naturally talented wings in league history, but he never ended up doing anything with it. His three series 2002-05 are all pretty fine to good but are not much to go on. So compared to someone like Erving, I can ask, “Hm, is there anything Erving does better that should leave him as a better choice in the postseason,” and the answer would kind-of by default be “actually playing in the postseason”.

It is not as if he went up against all-time squads; he was losing to the Baron Davis Hornets, the pre-Rasheed Pistons, and the 2005 transitionary Mavericks. And as soon as we expand outside that frame his numbers start looking a fair bit worse, and still against some historically uninspiring teams. Then for 2003 itself, it is a clear outlier for his standards. 1990 Ewing is a bit of an outlier, but only in the sense he picked up his volume for that season. 2003 McGrady had outlier volume and extreme outlier efficiency, driven in large part by a hot streak outside the arc which he never came close to replicating. For those of us who care about sample sizes and variance, what do we make of that? There is a definite floor for how low I am willing to go, because I do think he has pretty clear value as a scorer, creator, and physically capable defender, but I do not think it is a given to take him over guys like Harden or Penny.

Any others?

I would throw Marques Johnson (and D-Will) in there, plus the names I mention to Proxy.

Proxy wrote:Some players that came to mind when I was thinking a few weeks ago were(some that seem somewhat overlooked generally ig)

Nate Thurmond
Bob Lanier
Dave Cowens
Mark Price
Grant Hill
Alonzo Mourning
Paul George
Luka Doncič
But not all of them are necessarily short and I do think it's early for most of them(tho i'm pretty high on Zo and Luka)

Agree on most of these (case for Price I think needs to be heavily modernised; case for Hill is tough for me because of how he struggled to handle scoring loads in the postseason). Luka should be discussed, and 2019 Paul George is worth a mention too, but if Luka is in the discussion I think that also opens the door wide for Butler and Tatum as two-way alternatives and Lillard as an offensive rival.

Mourning has been tough for me because of those series against old Ewing and the Knicks. I mean, elite two-way big, always going to respect that to a point, but just not the best look.



99% of nba voters use basketball reference stats because those are the most stable. Stats like rapm are trash they have guys like danny green as the best player in the league

steve nash is a top 40 guy thats it, team offensive ratings shouldnt push him over guys like harden when the individual stats are so far apart
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#94 » by falcolombardi » Wed Aug 24, 2022 5:11 am

DraymondGold wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:at some point we need to start to ask why why despite having goat level offensive impact metrics, Nash falls down a good bit on these sort of lists. Part of it is because he’s a legit lousy defender, and the other is players can’t be ranked by who’s team ortg was higher.

… or maybe it is because a good chunk of people still just glance at basketball-reference and make their decisions off that. :-?

If the argument is that Nash’s defensive disadvantages make up for his offensive advantages relative to guys like Harden or whatever, fine. I disagree, because both need to be hidden even if Harden has certain areas where he can be more of a schematic contributor, but the argument has some basis. However, instead we see Harden is better because he scores so much more! Look at his points per game and PER and BPM, such raw production! At that point why not say 2017 Isaiah Thomas was a higher peak than Nash too. :roll:


Just wanted to do a quick reply here. Obviously I don't put much weight to PER / other basketball-reference stats, as plenty of my posts have shown haha :lol:

But even if Nash has "goat level offensive impact metrics", he certainly doesn't have the best overall metrics across the board.
-His best plus minus metric is regular season RAPM.
- But he's behind Robinson/Paul/Dirk in both regular season and postseason AuPM. KD's ahead in RS AuPM, Kawhi's ahead in PS AuPM
-He's behind all 5 of those players (as well as Erving / AD) in combined RS/Playoff PIPM
-He's behind Robinson in WOWY, and not ahead of peak Kawhi by much
-ESPN’s RPM rates him poorly compared to this group
-And like y'all said, he's near the bottom of the group in BPM

So... he certainly has some stats where he's good (RAPM). But it's far from goat-level impact across the board. I'm not sure how much this lack of impact-metric dominance is from not having GOAT-level offense vs being a negative defender. I'd guess it's a loss on defense though. Personally I don't have him as my GOAT offensive player (though he's certainly top 5), but to me he's the clear worst defender of the Tier 1/2 Offensive Players ever.

falcolombardi wrote:I dont have any issue with the admiral, i think he is fantastic but i honestly wonder if he has any season as good as, lets say, 2020 davis?

He has better regular seasons no doubt, but no playoffs on that level

and the claim he is better as a defense #1, offense #2 kind of guy on a team does apply to 2020 davis too who may have just done it better (so the argument for robinson over davis would need to be regular season based)

I feel like a lot of players suddendly would look a lot better if you let them be the second option and not asked to shoulder that role.

Would 1990 ewing be much worse behind a better offensive "alpha" than robinson? And ewing probably wont enter the discussion until well into the 30's or 40's
Hi falcolombardi!

As one of this project's Robinson proponents, thought I'd give a quick reply. I definitely think he has a season or two (or three :lol: ) better than Davis.

As a defensive #1: I have Robinson as a guaranteed top 10 defensive player ever, quite possibly top 5, and that's certainly a pretty common stance. Our last Greatest Defenders project ranked him as the 3rd best Defensive Center ever, and the only non-centers I can really see making an argument for is Duncan or KG (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1792345), which would mean this board's at least open to the idea of him being Top 5 defender of all time. I... can't really see any argument of AD being that high.

As for Offensive #2, I'm more open to an argument for Davis. But just like people have contextual concerns for Robinson's offense (they think he lacks resilience and his years with Duncan overstate his value), there's also concerns for Davis' offense. His best performance was in the bubble, and while I definitely don't think it's a "fake ring" or a "Disney ring" that it "needs an asterisk" or any other crap like that, you could certainly make the argument that he benefited more than most from hot shooting and from the added rest.

There's counters to both of those stances (I've used film study to argue Robinson's more resilient than the reputation and skill-analysis to argue he's more scalable as an offensive #2 than many... I'm sure others would argue everyone else got the same shooting conditions / rest AD did so it should have been an "even playing field"). But just thought it was worth mentioning the other side.

As for Ewing, I have him a step below Robinson as a #1 Defender (so does the past Greatest Defenders project, which ranked Ewing 8th among centers to Robinson's 3rd). I also have his ability as an Offensive #1 as worse than Robinson, and his scalability as an Offensive #2 as worse... Ewing's volume scoring is worse, as is his efficiency, as is his off-ball ability, and his creation/passing.

And just to mention, Robinson dominates AD and Ewing in the majority of impact metrics, including in postseason stats like PS PIPM.


I didnt want to aegue ewing ~ robinson as much as arguing that beneffitting from being a offense #2 is not exclusive thingh to him. Karl malone, david robinson, ewing, minnesots garnett all would have benefitted (or did benefit eventually in the admiral case) from taking a back step to a better offense focal point
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#95 » by AEnigma » Wed Aug 24, 2022 5:15 am

DraymondGold wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:at some point we need to start to ask why why despite having goat level offensive impact metrics, Nash falls down a good bit on these sort of lists. Part of it is because he’s a legit lousy defender, and the other is players can’t be ranked by who’s team ortg was higher.

… or maybe it is because a good chunk of people still just glance at basketball-reference and make their decisions off that. :-?

If the argument is that Nash’s defensive disadvantages make up for his offensive advantages relative to guys like Harden or whatever, fine. I disagree, because both need to be hidden even if Harden has certain areas where he can be more of a schematic contributor, but the argument has some basis. However, instead we see Harden is better because he scores so much more! Look at his points per game and PER and BPM, such raw production! At that point why not say 2017 Isaiah Thomas was a higher peak than Nash too. :roll:


Just wanted to do a quick reply here. Obviously I don't put much weight to PER / other basketball-reference stats, as plenty of my posts have shown haha :lol:

But even if Nash has "goat level offensive impact metrics", he certainly doesn't have the best overall metrics across the board.

Oh boy, another claim that no one made, similarly trying to discard any on court analysis in favour of formula rankings.

he's behind Robinson/Paul/Dirk in both regular season and postseason AuPM.

Nash never had the opportunity to pay in postseasons next to Duncan (which continues to be your almost sole reference for Robinson in postseason impact), I have talked at length about Dirk, and while I probably will address Paul at some point, yes, we are all familiar with how he fares in these types of stats.

Kawhi's ahead in PS AuPM

Damn that totally changes my vote.

He's behind all 5 of those players (as well as Erving / AD) in combined RS/Playoff PIPM

Erving’s PIPM is literally just a box score metric. But damn that AD point totally changes my vote.

He's behind Robinson in WOWY, and not ahead of peak Kawhi by much

He is actually ahead of Robinson in WOWY as far as I can tell, but going by WOWYR I sure am excited to hear how close Kawhi must be to justify a “not behind by much” stipulation that was absent from the comparison with Robinson. You know, seeing as Nash is within .3 of Robinson in Prime WOWYR, Scaled WOWYR, and Alt Scaled WOWYR, and matching in scaled GPM (all despite a ten year measure favouring Robinson more than Nash with those Dallas years included). Maybe Kawhi is within .1?

ESPN’s RPM rates him poorly compared to this group
-And like y'all said, he's near the bottom of the group in BPM

Cool.

falcolombardi wrote:I dont have any issue with the admiral, i think he is fantastic but i honestly wonder if he has any season as good as, lets say, 2020 davis?

He has better regular seasons no doubt, but no playoffs on that level

and the claim he is better as a defense #1, offense #2 kind of guy on a team does apply to 2020 davis too who may have just done it better (so the argument for robinson over davis would need to be regular season based)

I feel like a lot of players suddendly would look a lot better if you let them be the second option and not asked to shoulder that role.

Would 1990 ewing be much worse behind a better offensive "alpha" than robinson? And ewing probably wont enter the discussion until well into the 30's or 40's
Hi falcolombardi!

As one of this project's Robinson proponents, thought I'd give a quick reply. I definitely think he has a season or two (or three :lol: ) better than Davis.

As a defensive #1: I have Robinson as a guaranteed top 10 defensive player ever, quite possibly top 5, and that's certainly a pretty common stance. Our last Greatest Defenders project ranked him as the 3rd best Defensive Center ever, and the only non-centers I can really see making an argument for is Duncan or KG (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1792345), which would mean this board's at least open to the idea of him being Top 5 defender of all time. I... can't really see any argument of AD being that high.

In the regular season, no. For a playoffs run? Well, not sure I recall how often David Robinson postseason performances were being compared to the defence of Bill Russell, although it is difficult to imagine those comparisons were coming against any relatively modern looking offence, what with how consistently Robinson struggled against them.

But hey, Robinson probably would be doing this too if he had only been blessed with better teammates, right.


As for Ewing… I also have his ability as an Offensive #1 as worse than Robinson... Ewing's volume scoring is worse, as is his efficiency.

1.) Outright, not with 1990.
2.) When factoring defensive opposition in the postseason, not really. And that is with a sample taken primarily after 1990. I guess you did not really care to read the older projects even when I linked them. I think I had one link in my Walton vote for a while; if I recall, 2019 Peaks #18 had a long discussion, but there have been other projects in this forum that have similarly identified Robinson’s enormous drop against better defences, and that trend has been referenced in these discussions prior.

And just to mention, Robinson dominates AD and Ewing in the majority of impact metrics, including in postseason stats like PS PIPM.

Per usual, all that actually tells me is that the 1999 Spurs specifically were more dominant relative to their postseason competition than the 2020 Lakers were relative to theirs, and that Will Purdue made for a worse replacement for Robinson than the Lakers rotation of bigs did for Davis.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#96 » by falcolombardi » Wed Aug 24, 2022 5:38 am

AEnigma wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:
AEnigma wrote:… or maybe it is because a good chunk of people still just glance at basketball-reference and make their decisions off that. :-?

If the argument is that Nash’s defensive disadvantages make up for his offensive advantages relative to guys like Harden or whatever, fine. I disagree, because both need to be hidden even if Harden has certain areas where he can be more of a schematic contributor, but the argument has some basis. However, instead we see Harden is better because he scores so much more! Look at his points per game and PER and BPM, such raw production! At that point why not say 2017 Isaiah Thomas was a higher peak than Nash too. :roll:


Just wanted to do a quick reply here. Obviously I don't put much weight to PER / other basketball-reference stats, as plenty of my posts have shown haha :lol:

But even if Nash has "goat level offensive impact metrics", he certainly doesn't have the best overall metrics across the board.

Oh boy, another claim that no one made, similarly trying to discard any on court analysis in favour of formula rankings.

he's behind Robinson/Paul/Dirk in both regular season and postseason AuPM.

Nash never had the opportunity to pay in postseasons next to Duncan (which continues to be your almost sole reference for Robinson in postseason impact), I have talked at length about Dirk, and while I probably will address Paul at some point, yes, we are all familiar with how he fares in these types of stats.

Kawhi's ahead in PS AuPM

Damn that totally changes my vote.

He's behind all 5 of those players (as well as Erving / AD) in combined RS/Playoff PIPM

Erving’s PIPM is literally just a box score metric. But damn that AD point totally changes my vote.

He's behind Robinson in WOWY, and not ahead of peak Kawhi by much

He is actually ahead of Robinson in WOWY as far as I can tell, but going by WOWYR I sure am excited to hear how close Kawhi must be to justify a “not behind by much” stipulation that was absent from the comparison with Robinson. You know, seeing as Nash is within .3 of Robinson in Prime WOWYR, Scaled WOWYR, and Alt Scaled WOWYR, and matching in scaled GPM (all despite a ten year measure favouring Robinson more than Nash with those Dallas years included). Maybe Kawhi is within .1?

ESPN’s RPM rates him poorly compared to this group
-And like y'all said, he's near the bottom of the group in BPM

Cool.

falcolombardi wrote:I dont have any issue with the admiral, i think he is fantastic but i honestly wonder if he has any season as good as, lets say, 2020 davis?

He has better regular seasons no doubt, but no playoffs on that level

and the claim he is better as a defense #1, offense #2 kind of guy on a team does apply to 2020 davis too who may have just done it better (so the argument for robinson over davis would need to be regular season based)

I feel like a lot of players suddendly would look a lot better if you let them be the second option and not asked to shoulder that role.

Would 1990 ewing be much worse behind a better offensive "alpha" than robinson? And ewing probably wont enter the discussion until well into the 30's or 40's
Hi falcolombardi!

As one of this project's Robinson proponents, thought I'd give a quick reply. I definitely think he has a season or two (or three :lol: ) better than Davis.

As a defensive #1: I have Robinson as a guaranteed top 10 defensive player ever, quite possibly top 5, and that's certainly a pretty common stance. Our last Greatest Defenders project ranked him as the 3rd best Defensive Center ever, and the only non-centers I can really see making an argument for is Duncan or KG (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1792345), which would mean this board's at least open to the idea of him being Top 5 defender of all time. I... can't really see any argument of AD being that high.

In the regular season, no. For a playoffs run? Well, not sure I recall how often David Robinson postseason performances were being compared to the defence of Bill Russell, although it is difficult to imagine those comparisons were coming against any relatively modern looking offence, what with how consistently Robinson struggled against them.

But hey, Robinson probably would be doing this too if he had only been blessed with better teammates, right.


As for Ewing… I also have his ability as an Offensive #1 as worse than Robinson... Ewing's volume scoring is worse, as is his efficiency.

1.) Outright, not with 1990.
2.) When factoring defensive opposition in the postseason, not really. And that is with a sample taken primarily after 1990. I guess you did not really care to read the older projects even when I linked them. I think I had one link in my Walton vote for a while; if I recall, 2019 Peaks #18 had a long discussion, but there have been other projects in this forum that have similarly identified Robinson’s enormous drop against better defences, and that trend has been referenced in these discussions prior.

And just to mention, Robinson dominates AD and Ewing in the majority of impact metrics, including in postseason stats like PS PIPM.

Per usual, all that actually tells me is that the 1999 Spurs specifically were more dominate relative to their postseason competition than the 2020 Lakers were relative to theirs, and that Will Purdue made for a worse replacement for Robinson than the Lakers rotation of bigs did for Davis.


Unibrodavis has mentioned that once you account for how historically awful they were in garbage minutes (as in lakers benchwarmer units taking 30 points laker blowouts into 15 point wins and such) the 2020 lakers were only a bit below the all time champions in dominance by net rating measures and such

I dont have his post at hand tho but they were incredibly dominant and garbage minutes actually undersell them
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#97 » by DraymondGold » Wed Aug 24, 2022 6:20 am

AEnigma wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:
AEnigma wrote:… or maybe it is because a good chunk of people still just glance at basketball-reference and make their decisions off that. :-?

If the argument is that Nash’s defensive disadvantages make up for his offensive advantages relative to guys like Harden or whatever, fine. I disagree, because both need to be hidden even if Harden has certain areas where he can be more of a schematic contributor, but the argument has some basis. However, instead we see Harden is better because he scores so much more! Look at his points per game and PER and BPM, such raw production! At that point why not say 2017 Isaiah Thomas was a higher peak than Nash too. :roll:


Just wanted to do a quick reply here. Obviously I don't put much weight to PER / other basketball-reference stats, as plenty of my posts have shown haha :lol:

But even if Nash has "goat level offensive impact metrics", he certainly doesn't have the best overall metrics across the board.

Oh boy, another claim that no one made, similarly trying to discard any on court analysis in favour of formula rankings.


Not making "a claim that nobody made," providing more information to someone who openly mentioned statistics. There's a pretty clear difference, and the intention of my post was pretty obviously the latter. You always assume the worst in your opponents. It's a shame really...

And for the record: only one of us has provided play-by-play "on-court analysis" in this project.... and it wasn't you :wink:

AEnigma wrote:
he's behind Robinson/Paul/Dirk in both regular season and postseason AuPM.

Nash never had the opportunity to pay in postseasons next to Duncan (which continues to be your almost sole reference for Robinson in postseason impact), I have talked at length about Dirk, and while I probably will address Paul at some point, yes, we are all familiar with how he fares in these types of stats.

Kawhi's ahead in PS AuPM

Damn that totally changes my vote.

He's behind all 5 of those players (as well as Erving / AD) in combined RS/Playoff PIPM

Erving’s PIPM is literally just a box score metric. But damn that AD point totally changes my vote.

He's behind Robinson in WOWY, and not ahead of peak Kawhi by much

He is actually ahead of Robinson in WOWY as far as I can tell, but going by WOWYR I sure am excited to hear how close Kawhi must be to justify a “not behind by much” stipulation that was absent from the comparison with Robinson. You know, seeing as Nash is within .3 of Robinson in Prime WOWYR, Scaled WOWYR, and Alt Scaled WOWYR, and matching in scaled GPM (all despite a ten year measure favouring Robinson more than Nash with those Dallas years included). Maybe Kawhi is within .1?

ESPN’s RPM rates him poorly compared to this group
-And like y'all said, he's near the bottom of the group in BPM

Cool.

I have a challenge for you Enigma. By memory, we've had 4 discussions. You've been sarcastic, straw-manned / blatantly misconstrued my comments, and outright insulted me in 3/4 of those conversations. The only conversation you didn't was when you said you'd respond later. One conversation (25% of our discussions so far) was rude enough to merit a moderator warning.

Here's my challenge for you: have one conversation with me without being resorting to personal attacks, sarcasm, or straw-manning. Just one.

I guess we'll see if this can happen. I've never understood what someone gains by resorting to sarcasm or personal attacks or intentionally misconstruing another person's intentions, but I guess that's just not my style.

falcolombardi wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:
AEnigma wrote:… or maybe it is because a good chunk of people still just glance at basketball-reference and make their decisions off that. :-?

If the argument is that Nash’s defensive disadvantages make up for his offensive advantages relative to guys like Harden or whatever, fine. I disagree, because both need to be hidden even if Harden has certain areas where he can be more of a schematic contributor, but the argument has some basis. However, instead we see Harden is better because he scores so much more! Look at his points per game and PER and BPM, such raw production! At that point why not say 2017 Isaiah Thomas was a higher peak than Nash too. :roll:


Just wanted to do a quick reply here. Obviously I don't put much weight to PER / other basketball-reference stats, as plenty of my posts have shown haha :lol:

But even if Nash has "goat level offensive impact metrics", he certainly doesn't have the best overall metrics across the board.
-His best plus minus metric is regular season RAPM.
- But he's behind Robinson/Paul/Dirk in both regular season and postseason AuPM. KD's ahead in RS AuPM, Kawhi's ahead in PS AuPM
-He's behind all 5 of those players (as well as Erving / AD) in combined RS/Playoff PIPM
-He's behind Robinson in WOWY, and not ahead of peak Kawhi by much
-ESPN’s RPM rates him poorly compared to this group
-And like y'all said, he's near the bottom of the group in BPM

So... he certainly has some stats where he's good (RAPM). But it's far from goat-level impact across the board. I'm not sure how much this lack of impact-metric dominance is from not having GOAT-level offense vs being a negative defender. I'd guess it's a loss on defense though. Personally I don't have him as my GOAT offensive player (though he's certainly top 5), but to me he's the clear worst defender of the Tier 1/2 Offensive Players ever.

falcolombardi wrote:I dont have any issue with the admiral, i think he is fantastic but i honestly wonder if he has any season as good as, lets say, 2020 davis?

He has better regular seasons no doubt, but no playoffs on that level

and the claim he is better as a defense #1, offense #2 kind of guy on a team does apply to 2020 davis too who may have just done it better (so the argument for robinson over davis would need to be regular season based)

I feel like a lot of players suddendly would look a lot better if you let them be the second option and not asked to shoulder that role.

Would 1990 ewing be much worse behind a better offensive "alpha" than robinson? And ewing probably wont enter the discussion until well into the 30's or 40's
Hi falcolombardi!

As one of this project's Robinson proponents, thought I'd give a quick reply. I definitely think he has a season or two (or three :lol: ) better than Davis.

As a defensive #1: I have Robinson as a guaranteed top 10 defensive player ever, quite possibly top 5, and that's certainly a pretty common stance. Our last Greatest Defenders project ranked him as the 3rd best Defensive Center ever, and the only non-centers I can really see making an argument for is Duncan or KG (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1792345), which would mean this board's at least open to the idea of him being Top 5 defender of all time. I... can't really see any argument of AD being that high.

As for Offensive #2, I'm more open to an argument for Davis. But just like people have contextual concerns for Robinson's offense (they think he lacks resilience and his years with Duncan overstate his value), there's also concerns for Davis' offense. His best performance was in the bubble, and while I definitely don't think it's a "fake ring" or a "Disney ring" that it "needs an asterisk" or any other crap like that, you could certainly make the argument that he benefited more than most from hot shooting and from the added rest.

There's counters to both of those stances (I've used film study to argue Robinson's more resilient than the reputation and skill-analysis to argue he's more scalable as an offensive #2 than many... I'm sure others would argue everyone else got the same shooting conditions / rest AD did so it should have been an "even playing field"). But just thought it was worth mentioning the other side.

As for Ewing, I have him a step below Robinson as a #1 Defender (so does the past Greatest Defenders project, which ranked Ewing 8th among centers to Robinson's 3rd). I also have his ability as an Offensive #1 as worse than Robinson, and his scalability as an Offensive #2 as worse... Ewing's volume scoring is worse, as is his efficiency, as is his off-ball ability, and his creation/passing.

And just to mention, Robinson dominates AD and Ewing in the majority of impact metrics, including in postseason stats like PS PIPM.


I didnt want to aegue ewing ~ robinson as much as arguing that beneffitting from being a offense #2 is not exclusive thingh to him. Karl malone, david robinson, ewing, minnesots garnett all would have benefitted (or did benefit eventually in the admiral case) from taking a back step to a better offense focal point
Sure, that's fair. I actually like your point about Karl Malone -- I've long been a proponent that his supposed lack of resilience was driven less by him being a "born choker" or "lacking the clutch instinct" or whatever his casual reputation is, and more from him being tasked with more than he ideally would have handled offensively.

Do you see Karl Malone being a better 2nd Option than Robinson? KG almost certainly is (he went quite a few spots before Robinson), and it sounds like you don't want to debate Ewing vs Robinson as much.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#98 » by AEnigma » Wed Aug 24, 2022 6:54 am

DraymondGold wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:
Just wanted to do a quick reply here. Obviously I don't put much weight to PER / other basketball-reference stats, as plenty of my posts have shown haha :lol:

But even if Nash has "goat level offensive impact metrics", he certainly doesn't have the best overall metrics across the board.

Oh boy, another claim that no one made, similarly trying to discard any on court analysis in favour of formula rankings.


Not making "a claim that nobody made," providing more information to someone who openly mentioned statistics. There's a pretty clear difference, and the intention of my post was pretty obviously the latter. You always assume the worst in your opponents. It's a shame really...

What is the difference? Imagine if every time you mentioned a player’s defence I came in with a random list of players with a high DRAPM. Because you know, you mentioned defence.

And for the record: only one of us has provided play-by-play "on-court analysis" in this project.... and it wasn't you :wink:

And such a critical analysis it was.

AEnigma wrote:
he's behind Robinson/Paul/Dirk in both regular season and postseason AuPM.

Nash never had the opportunity to pay in postseasons next to Duncan (which continues to be your almost sole reference for Robinson in postseason impact), I have talked at length about Dirk, and while I probably will address Paul at some point, yes, we are all familiar with how he fares in these types of stats.

Kawhi's ahead in PS AuPM

Damn that totally changes my vote.

He's behind all 5 of those players (as well as Erving / AD) in combined RS/Playoff PIPM

Erving’s PIPM is literally just a box score metric. But damn that AD point totally changes my vote.

He's behind Robinson in WOWY, and not ahead of peak Kawhi by much

He is actually ahead of Robinson in WOWY as far as I can tell, but going by WOWYR I sure am excited to hear how close Kawhi must be to justify a “not behind by much” stipulation that was absent from the comparison with Robinson. You know, seeing as Nash is within .3 of Robinson in Prime WOWYR, Scaled WOWYR, and Alt Scaled WOWYR, and matching in scaled GPM (all despite a ten year measure favouring Robinson more than Nash with those Dallas years included). Maybe Kawhi is within .1?

ESPN’s RPM rates him poorly compared to this group
-And like y'all said, he's near the bottom of the group in BPM

Cool.

I have a challenge for you Enigma. By memory, we've had 4 discussions. You've been sarcastic, straw-manned / blatantly misconstrued my comments, and outright insulted me in 3/4 of those conversations. The only conversation you didn't was when you said you'd respond later. One conversation (25% of our discussions so far) was rude enough to merit a moderator warning.

Here's my challenge for you: have one conversation with me without being resorting to personal attacks, sarcasm, or straw-manning. Just one.

I guess we'll see if this can happen. I've never understood what someone gains by resorting to sarcasm or personal attacks or intentionally misconstruing another person's intentions, but I guess that's just not my style.

No your style is to insert a bunch of “advanced stats” into conversations with people who have consistently criticised your excessive reliance on them. Where is the discussion in that. Exactly what type of dialogue were you expecting by coming in with “ackshually in your conversation about Nash and Harden these other unmentioned numbers do not like Nash as much as all these other non-Harden players”. Are you sincerely interested in a back-and-forth or engaging with my intentions, or do you just want to continue to preach the gospel of AuPM and PIPM? Because time and time again, seems like your willingness to “discuss” dies as soon as that gospel is rejected. I know f4p disagrees with my approach, but at least he seems legitimately interested in learning about alternative views.

The only conversation you didn't was when you said you'd respond later.

You mean this post?
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2217670&p=100817197&hilit=Robinson#p100817197
Always such creative framings, but maybe the lack of response should have told me that too went unprocessed.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#99 » by falcolombardi » Wed Aug 24, 2022 7:36 am

DraymondGold wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:
Just wanted to do a quick reply here. Obviously I don't put much weight to PER / other basketball-reference stats, as plenty of my posts have shown haha :lol:

But even if Nash has "goat level offensive impact metrics", he certainly doesn't have the best overall metrics across the board.

Oh boy, another claim that no one made, similarly trying to discard any on court analysis in favour of formula rankings.


Not making "a claim that nobody made," providing more information to someone who openly mentioned statistics. There's a pretty clear difference, and the intention of my post was pretty obviously the latter. You always assume the worst in your opponents. It's a shame really...

And for the record: only one of us has provided play-by-play "on-court analysis" in this project.... and it wasn't you :wink:

AEnigma wrote:
he's behind Robinson/Paul/Dirk in both regular season and postseason AuPM.

Nash never had the opportunity to pay in postseasons next to Duncan (which continues to be your almost sole reference for Robinson in postseason impact), I have talked at length about Dirk, and while I probably will address Paul at some point, yes, we are all familiar with how he fares in these types of stats.

Kawhi's ahead in PS AuPM

Damn that totally changes my vote.

He's behind all 5 of those players (as well as Erving / AD) in combined RS/Playoff PIPM

Erving’s PIPM is literally just a box score metric. But damn that AD point totally changes my vote.

He's behind Robinson in WOWY, and not ahead of peak Kawhi by much

He is actually ahead of Robinson in WOWY as far as I can tell, but going by WOWYR I sure am excited to hear how close Kawhi must be to justify a “not behind by much” stipulation that was absent from the comparison with Robinson. You know, seeing as Nash is within .3 of Robinson in Prime WOWYR, Scaled WOWYR, and Alt Scaled WOWYR, and matching in scaled GPM (all despite a ten year measure favouring Robinson more than Nash with those Dallas years included). Maybe Kawhi is within .1?

ESPN’s RPM rates him poorly compared to this group
-And like y'all said, he's near the bottom of the group in BPM

Cool.

I have a challenge for you Enigma. By memory, we've had 4 discussions. You've been sarcastic, straw-manned / blatantly misconstrued my comments, and outright insulted me in 3/4 of those conversations. The only conversation you didn't was when you said you'd respond later. One conversation (25% of our discussions so far) was rude enough to merit a moderator warning.

Here's my challenge for you: have one conversation with me without being resorting to personal attacks, sarcasm, or straw-manning. Just one.

I guess we'll see if this can happen. I've never understood what someone gains by resorting to sarcasm or personal attacks or intentionally misconstruing another person's intentions, but I guess that's just not my style.

falcolombardi wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:
Just wanted to do a quick reply here. Obviously I don't put much weight to PER / other basketball-reference stats, as plenty of my posts have shown haha :lol:

But even if Nash has "goat level offensive impact metrics", he certainly doesn't have the best overall metrics across the board.
-His best plus minus metric is regular season RAPM.
- But he's behind Robinson/Paul/Dirk in both regular season and postseason AuPM. KD's ahead in RS AuPM, Kawhi's ahead in PS AuPM
-He's behind all 5 of those players (as well as Erving / AD) in combined RS/Playoff PIPM
-He's behind Robinson in WOWY, and not ahead of peak Kawhi by much
-ESPN’s RPM rates him poorly compared to this group
-And like y'all said, he's near the bottom of the group in BPM

So... he certainly has some stats where he's good (RAPM). But it's far from goat-level impact across the board. I'm not sure how much this lack of impact-metric dominance is from not having GOAT-level offense vs being a negative defender. I'd guess it's a loss on defense though. Personally I don't have him as my GOAT offensive player (though he's certainly top 5), but to me he's the clear worst defender of the Tier 1/2 Offensive Players ever.

Hi falcolombardi!

As one of this project's Robinson proponents, thought I'd give a quick reply. I definitely think he has a season or two (or three :lol: ) better than Davis.

As a defensive #1: I have Robinson as a guaranteed top 10 defensive player ever, quite possibly top 5, and that's certainly a pretty common stance. Our last Greatest Defenders project ranked him as the 3rd best Defensive Center ever, and the only non-centers I can really see making an argument for is Duncan or KG (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1792345), which would mean this board's at least open to the idea of him being Top 5 defender of all time. I... can't really see any argument of AD being that high.

As for Offensive #2, I'm more open to an argument for Davis. But just like people have contextual concerns for Robinson's offense (they think he lacks resilience and his years with Duncan overstate his value), there's also concerns for Davis' offense. His best performance was in the bubble, and while I definitely don't think it's a "fake ring" or a "Disney ring" that it "needs an asterisk" or any other crap like that, you could certainly make the argument that he benefited more than most from hot shooting and from the added rest.

There's counters to both of those stances (I've used film study to argue Robinson's more resilient than the reputation and skill-analysis to argue he's more scalable as an offensive #2 than many... I'm sure others would argue everyone else got the same shooting conditions / rest AD did so it should have been an "even playing field"). But just thought it was worth mentioning the other side.

As for Ewing, I have him a step below Robinson as a #1 Defender (so does the past Greatest Defenders project, which ranked Ewing 8th among centers to Robinson's 3rd). I also have his ability as an Offensive #1 as worse than Robinson, and his scalability as an Offensive #2 as worse... Ewing's volume scoring is worse, as is his efficiency, as is his off-ball ability, and his creation/passing.

And just to mention, Robinson dominates AD and Ewing in the majority of impact metrics, including in postseason stats like PS PIPM.


I didnt want to aegue ewing ~ robinson as much as arguing that beneffitting from being a offense #2 is not exclusive thingh to him. Karl malone, david robinson, ewing, minnesots garnett all would have benefitted (or did benefit eventually in the admiral case) from taking a back step to a better offense focal point
Sure, that's fair. I actually like your point about Karl Malone -- I've long been a proponent that his supposed lack of resilience was driven less by him being a "born choker" or "lacking the clutch instinct" or whatever his casual reputation is, and more from him being tasked with more than he ideally would have handled offensively.

Do you see Karl Malone being a better 2nd Option than Robinson? KG almost certainly is (he went quite a few spots before Robinson), and it sounds like you don't want to debate Ewing vs Robinson as much.


I definetely think karl malone would be a excellent second option, better than ewing at that role

His passing is brilliant and undertalked, good shooter and a great pick and pop player (ironically enough he may not be as good of a roll-man as one would think since he was a bit too t-rex armed to finish in traffic well, ben taylor was spot on with that criticism when i watched malone film)

Ewing at his best is bigger and may be a better roll-man but i would prefer karl passing advantage

But defense counts and ewing is more impressive there. Defense is specially valuable for a guy who is not the one using most offensive possesions

I think i would prefer to have ewing over malone as a second option in a vacuum since it means i get his rim protection.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#100 » by DraymondGold » Wed Aug 24, 2022 7:36 am

AEnigma wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Oh boy, another claim that no one made, similarly trying to discard any on court analysis in favour of formula rankings.


Not making "a claim that nobody made," providing more information to someone who openly mentioned statistics. There's a pretty clear difference, and the intention of my post was pretty obviously the latter. You always assume the worst in your opponents. It's a shame really...

What is the difference? Imagine if every time you mentioned a player’s defence I came in with a random list of players with a high DRAPM. Because you know, you mentioned defence.
What's the difference between providing statistical information when somebody mentioned statistics and replying to a claim nobody made?

Well, no-more-rings asked Why Nash was being ranked so low given his goat-level offensive stats. He proposed it could be defense and a lack of reliance on team offensive rating. I supplemented his comment with additional information, saying that although he may have goat-level offensive stats, he doesn't have goat-level overall stats, or even necessarily clearly better stats than the players we're discussing alongside him.

That wasn't a claim nobody made. Somebody asked a question, and I replied with relevant information. Seems pretty simple :D

And for the record: only one of us has provided play-by-play "on-court analysis" in this project.... and it wasn't you :wink:

And such a critical analysis it was.
Welp, another discussion gone with another sarcastic comment from you. Oh well

AEnigma wrote:Nash never had the opportunity to pay in postseasons next to Duncan (which continues to be your almost sole reference for Robinson in postseason impact), I have talked at length about Dirk, and while I probably will address Paul at some point, yes, we are all familiar with how he fares in these types of stats.


Damn that totally changes my vote.


Erving’s PIPM is literally just a box score metric. But damn that AD point totally changes my vote.


He is actually ahead of Robinson in WOWY as far as I can tell, but going by WOWYR I sure am excited to hear how close Kawhi must be to justify a “not behind by much” stipulation that was absent from the comparison with Robinson. You know, seeing as Nash is within .3 of Robinson in Prime WOWYR, Scaled WOWYR, and Alt Scaled WOWYR, and matching in scaled GPM (all despite a ten year measure favouring Robinson more than Nash with those Dallas years included). Maybe Kawhi is within .1?


Cool.

I have a challenge for you Enigma. By memory, we've had 4 discussions. You've been sarcastic, straw-manned / blatantly misconstrued my comments, and outright insulted me in 3/4 of those conversations. The only conversation you didn't was when you said you'd respond later. One conversation (25% of our discussions so far) was rude enough to merit a moderator warning.

Here's my challenge for you: have one conversation with me without being resorting to personal attacks, sarcasm, or straw-manning. Just one.

I guess we'll see if this can happen. I've never understood what someone gains by resorting to sarcasm or personal attacks or intentionally misconstruing another person's intentions, but I guess that's just not my style.

No your style is to insert a bunch of “advanced stats” into conversations with people who have consistently criticised your excessive reliance on them. Where is the discussion in that. Exactly what type of dialogue were you expecting by coming in with “ackshually in your conversation about Nash and Harden these other unmentioned numbers do not like Nash as much as all these other non-Harden players”. Are you sincerely interested in a back-and-forth or engaging with my intentions, or do you just want to continue to preach the gospel of AuPM and PIPM? Because time and time again, seems like your willingness to “discuss” dies as soon as that gospel is rejected. I know f4p disagrees with my approach, but at least he seems legitimately interested in learning about alternative views.

There's a difference between using advanced stats for my own votes and forcing others to follow the gospel.

I do the former, and I've openly stated what my criteria are. I do not do the latter, nor do I force anyone to.

When people quote stats (like no-more-rings above), I add my statistical analysis. When people misuse stats or have a preference for PER of all stats, sure, I propose that they instead follow better stats (what you disparagingly call the "gospel")... and justify this by noting that plus minus stats are what actual NBA analysts use and they're better connects to winning than PER. But that's not forcing anyone to change their criteria. If you do legit film analysis, great. If you value defensive more or offense more, great. So long as you justify it well and make reasonable conclusions from those principles, that's fine. That's not to say I won't ever disagree with someone.... but disagreement can be healthy. You certainly disagree with enough people, presumably you know that!

You say my "willingness to 'discuss' dies as soon as the gospel is rejected". Every single time I've ended a conversation with you, I've made it clear this is not the case. I challenge you to find a single other poster who shares this oddly adversarial opinion of me. I've discussed other issues with other posters and "engaged with their intentions" plenty of times throughout the project, as I will continue to do.

Where my willingness to discuss with you "dies" is when you insist on using sarcasm, strawmannirg, and personal insults. Stop doing that, and I'll engage with your posts. I've now made this clear in 4/4 of our discussions. Hopefully the 5th will be productive...

Edit: I think my last sentence may come across as snide or rude without making the tone clear. To be clear, I'm being sincere when I say that! You do offer good points, and I think we both have the potential to challenge each other's perspectives in a way that's healthy and fun for both of us. But as I've said, that productive discussion requires treating each other with respect, which is really all I'm asking of you, and frustratingly I'm still asking that of you in our 4th/5th discussion lol


falcolombardi wrote:I definetely think karl malone would be a excellent second option, better than ewing at that role

His passing is brilliant and undertalked, good shooter and a great pick and pop player (ironically enough he may not be as good of a roll-man as one would think since he was a bit too t-rex armed to finish in traffic well, ben taylor was spot on with that criticism when i watched malone film)

Ewing at his best is bigger and may be a better roll-man but i would prefer karl passing advantage

But defense counts and ewing is more impressive there. Defense is specially valuable for a guy who is not the one using most offensive possesions

I think i would prefer to have ewing over malone as a second option in a vacuum since it means i get his rim protection.
That all makes sense. It'll be interesting to see when /whether they get selected in this project! :D

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