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Are the Magician's individually better

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Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#1 » by drsd » Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:57 am

(( Another - I am bored - thread ))

As I think through the Magic and the team's prospects, individual talent matters.

Is player-X better than last year?

Fultz - marginally better. He is probably healthier, but it is hard to project him having any statistical gains
Suggs - he will be better. There is only-up on his horrible eFG% line.
Anthony - a push. If he is a bench player, his stats will improve though.
Cannady - a push. He will always be a marginal NBA player
Harris - a push. Harris is a vet's vet. But he won't be better individually.
Hampton - marginally better. He is getting close to his peak. His team defense will improve this year though.
Ross - worse. Father time wants his taxes paid.
Houstan - better. All NCAA players improve to their rookie year. But he will be bad to start.
F-Wagner - better; perhaps "much better". If Orlando makes the play-ins, its 50% becasue of a huge jump up here.
Isaac - better. Look 33-minutes played since 2019 is not a high bar to climb.
Banchero - better. He will be bigger and stronger than his NCAA year. If he is a net-contributor, he is the other 50%
Okeke - marginally better. I do expect marginally-gains improvements here. And efficiency does matter.
Bol - better. If he stays healthy, he is better. An maybe he breaks the rotation in time.
Carter - marginally better. no break-out, but more efficiency.
Bamba - marginally better. no break-out, but more efficiency.
M-Wagner - better. His team defense will get better. On the cusp of NBA-caliber play.


So: will all these gains lead to the team itself improving, or is this the ego-fest of Oladipo, Fournier, Gordon, Isaac and Vučević
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#2 » by Skybox » Thu Aug 11, 2022 12:03 pm

Fultz looked good in his few games back, but a full camp and the chemistry that comes with it makes a facilitator likely more effective.

Suggs must be better, he can't be much worse offensively. I think he is still as high an upside as anyone on the roster. He'll be great.

Anthony's stats will likely decrease if he's coming off the bench and doesn't have a total green light with G-leaguers around him. I DO
think he'll be individually better playing to win and seeing opportunities to really be part of a team. Improved efficiency is his
target. If he worries about his numbers and his reduced role, he could go way South. If he embraces it...good good player.

Franz is a delicate question. Paolo might step all over Franz' game and set his star trajectory back. I hope not, and there's good reason
to believe Franz plays even better with another willing passer with gravity. Franz' cutting game is elite and will serve well.

Cannady, Bol, Schofield will hopefully be completely irrelevant and forgotten this season. Moe Wagner is practice fodder/s**t-stirrer.

Harris, presumably, was still affected by lingering injuries in the first half of last season. If he is fully healthy, he SHOULD continue on
his second half trajectory - which was excellent. If the Banchero/Franz synergy is great-Harris will benefit from many more open
shots than he saw last year. On the flip side, SG is likely Suggs' job to lose and if Suggs makes shots, Harris loses lots of PT.

Hampton is the one young guy that I'm really down on. Physically, he could be a really good 3&D SG for us, but his summer league makes
me, the ultimate glass half full talent evaluator, feel like he just doesn't get it. BBIQ less than zero. Nice kid, no chance.

TRoss, if engaged and given more meaningful minutes in meaningful games in a meaningful season, can still be the Human Torch. The
Magic tanked last season and TRoss personally tanked. If he's here and we're competing, I have no doubt he can still play.

Houstan may be a much better pro than college player. The floor is more wide open and his role and expectations will be narrower.

Isaac is really really good. People will remember that if he's healthy. His mindset is strong. IF he's really out there and able to compete,
he's a difference-maker. I also think that he will go hard in whatever role he's given, not pout or complain.

Bamba is interesting...15-20 minutes per game might be his sweet spot, where he comes in and goes crazy and happily subs out, OR he
complains and pouts that he's earned a starting spot and ends up a useless distraction. I think he's more likely to be a good team
player and, if his "people" don't get in his head that he's a star - he could be very effective in an important reserve role.

Okeke is the most mysterious to me. I love what he occasionally shows as a glue guy, team defender, 3pt shooter...but he really was bad
last year. Sometimes glue guys look much worse when there are no good pieces to 'glue' together. Last year was an AAU free for
all, perhaps that doesn't showcase his game well. I really like him, but his spot in the rotation is also unclear.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#3 » by tiderulz » Thu Aug 11, 2022 12:07 pm

my take

Harris - will be better overall. think he is past his injury and will start the season healthy and with confidence.
Hampton - doesnt seem any better than he was when he first got here
Ross - agree, he just doesnt care anymore. 3 straight years of FG% dropping
Houstan - agree, he will be bad at first, not sure when he will improve. will need to improve his body and strength and confidence
Wagner - he should be better, depends how Mosely uses him. really broke out when injuries hit the team, but then team went away from him when people came back
Isaac - not a believer he will play very well coming back. He is not in game shape and im still not sure he isnt brittle and whether he is confident he can stay healthy
Banchero - should be good, just hope he doesnt try to do too much right away
Okeke - unknown. was disappointing last year, i guess he has no where to go but up
Bol - likely barely sees any minutes
Carter - agree, will play well but wont be dramatically better
Bamba - i think offseason was a wakeup call. think he plays better
Moe Wagner - think he gets less minutes than before, not sure how he handles it
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#4 » by JBSouthpaw » Thu Aug 11, 2022 12:20 pm

our point differential was negative 8 pts.
Can this group improve on offense 4 points(2 baskets) and defense(2 baskets)
guards turn the ball over 2 less times
better % on shooting(ball in Cole's hands less)
getting to the foul line more
fouling less

Doesn't sound too daunting if they all improve individually.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#5 » by drsd » Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:32 pm

JBSouthpaw wrote:our point differential was negative 8 pts.
Can this group improve on offense 4 points(2 baskets) and defense(2 baskets)
guards turn the ball over 2 less times
better % on shooting(ball in Cole's hands less)
getting to the foul line more
fouling less

Doesn't sound too daunting if they all improve individually.


Post of the day!

Marginal gain can take this team to mediocrity. I believe.

One thing about offense, Orlando has been terrible at forcing fouls. I am confident that the team's FT rate per game will go up. Also, even marginal increases in 3-point % get a point.

So: one made 3 a game more and one FT made more per game get Orlando to a 4 ppg improvement. That seems doable to the point of certain.


..
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#6 » by Skybox » Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:51 pm

drsd wrote:So: one made 3 a game more and one FT made more per game get Orlando to a 4 ppg improvement. That seems doable to the point of certain.


..


Suggs alone should exceed this /\.

Fultz alone should exceed this/\

Switching out Bamba for Banchero in the starting lineup alone should greatly exceed this /\

*Anthony & Bamba are likeliest to lose these shots and points, depending on the rotation and maturity gained. I think the likely gains far exceed the losses.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#7 » by VFX » Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:26 pm

Carter is going surprise people.

Paired next to Wagner and Paolo he is going to have much better looks at the rim and less resistance defensively.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#8 » by drsd » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:33 pm

Skybox wrote:Suggs alone should exceed this /\.

Fultz alone should exceed this/\

Switching out Bamba for Banchero in the starting lineup alone should greatly exceed this /\

*Anthony & Bamba are likeliest to lose these shots and points, depending on the rotation and maturity gained. I think the likely gains far exceed the losses.



MagicMatic wrote:Carter is going surprise people.

Paired next to Wagner and Paolo he is going to have much better looks at the rim and less resistance defensively.



You two sound like you believe 40 wins is possible.


..
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#9 » by VFX » Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:43 am

drsd wrote:
Skybox wrote:Suggs alone should exceed this /\.

Fultz alone should exceed this/\

Switching out Bamba for Banchero in the starting lineup alone should greatly exceed this /\

*Anthony & Bamba are likeliest to lose these shots and points, depending on the rotation and maturity gained. I think the likely gains far exceed the losses.



MagicMatic wrote:Carter is going surprise people.

Paired next to Wagner and Paolo he is going to have much better looks at the rim and less resistance defensively.



You two sound like you believe 40 wins is possible.


..


I wouldn’t go that far. The majority of the the team is still learning the nba and don’t have much experience together. To me I think Carter will just do significantly better than expected offensively.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#10 » by Skybox » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:35 am

drsd wrote:
Skybox wrote:Suggs alone should exceed this /\.

Fultz alone should exceed this/\

Switching out Bamba for Banchero in the starting lineup alone should greatly exceed this /\

*Anthony & Bamba are likeliest to lose these shots and points, depending on the rotation and maturity gained. I think the likely gains far exceed the losses.



MagicMatic wrote:Carter is going surprise people.

Paired next to Wagner and Paolo he is going to have much better looks at the rim and less resistance defensively.



You two sound like you believe 40 wins is possible.


..


given our disarray and tanking and injuries last year, I can absolutely see enough obvious places to expect improvement that nearly doubling our win total seems possible...especially when you look at it incrementally (like you demonstrated).

However, I have a much harder time looking around and determining who is going to lose all of those games to us :D I'd say our range of wins could be anywhere from 29-45 without it being an absolutely shocking thing. EVERYTHING (except Franz) was subpar last season. WCJ showed promise, but still has a lot of room to be better. For example, people cheered his floor-spreading because he actually took 3's for the first time-but he didn't make a bunch. So really, it's hard to imagine a team with more areas and players with good reason to expect significant improvement individually and, at the same time, an organization and coach that will be happier with wins than losses. That's a LOT of change. Depending on NYK, BRK, and other significant trades, there are some very good teams in the East and a wide band of decent but volatile teams (some of which will crumble with injuries or unforeseen disappointment)...If we become the kind of team that plays to our capability against equal or bad teams and occasionally plays over our heads against better teams...40 wins isn't the most shocking prediction. Just settling on a somewhat regular rotation alone is worth several wins. Last year was Cole Anthony's travel team, with different guys every week. We didn't just add rookie Banchero (who alone is a gigantic get-as significant as any trade in the league potentially)...we're adding Isaac, Fultz, and Houstan might even have a spot. That's a LOT of change at the top of the rotation potentially.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#11 » by drsd » Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:48 pm

Skybox wrote: I'd say our range of wins could be anywhere from 29-45 without it being an absolutely shocking thing.


I agree that Orlando's floor is about 29 games. That's why the W/L betting line is free-money at 27.5.

But 45 wins is a bridge very far for me. Every single start would need to align, starting with zero injuries. Then Banchero being NBA average already in his rookie season, with F-Wagner and Suggs showing real Sophomore leaps. If those happen, then we can start looking to if Carter, Isaac and Fultz really are what we think they are. But boy is that a string of if's all lined up.
And it still ignores that the roster itself is poorly constructed.


Still: I am excited that Orlando has a real shot of being relevant all season long!


..
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#12 » by Skybox » Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:07 pm

drsd wrote:
Skybox wrote: I'd say our range of wins could be anywhere from 29-45 without it being an absolutely shocking thing.


I agree that Orlando's floor is about 29 games. That's why the W/L betting line is free-money at 27.5.

But 45 wins is a bridge very far for me. Every single start would need to align, starting with zero injuries. Then Banchero being NBA average already in his rookie season, with F-Wagner and Suggs showing real Sophomore leaps. If those happen, then we can start looking to if Carter, Isaac and Fultz really are what we think they are. But boy is that a string of if's all lined up.
And it still ignores that the roster itself is poorly constructed.


Still: I am excited that Orlando has a real shot of being relevant all season long!


..



I agree that the high end of my range would require just about everything going right...but that's different from some "hand of God", "how did this happen?" thing...teams don't get a lot of credit for being healthy and players playing like they should, but it's rare to hit on all cylinders. Point is it would be fortuitous, but not a miracle.

I've never done online betting...but this over/under might make me take a look.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#13 » by Magicman125 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:22 pm

- Fultz will be better in the midrange, hopefully can stay above 30% from 3, stay healthy, and keep improving on defense.
- Harris will hopefully continue to shoot 38% + from 3 and continue to regain form from 2017 wrt to perimeter D
- Suggs's defense is already good, if he can tighten up his handles and improve his shooting efficiency, he'll look much closer to what we expected of him last year.
- Anthony should benefit from coming off the bench, hopefully he can play as efficiently as he did before his injury last season
- Hampton looked abysmal in summer league, if he sticks to transition offense, corner 3s, and straight line drives and continues to improve on D, he can maybe crack the rotation or be a good 3rd string replacement for if injuries arise.
- Okeke has been up and down, but at times has shown good D and decent stroke from 3.
- Isaac I have no expectations for based on health issues
- Banchero is the #1 pick, but still a rookie. I expect a lot of turnovers and for efficiency to leave something to be desired. He'll likely go through growing pains when it comes to defensive IQ/engagement.
- Franz can hopefully continue to develop and improve from 3. Want to see him as a secondary playmaker more consistently than last year.
- Carter Jr. should continue to improve from 3 and on his ability to switch out on the perimeter. His post D and passing are already good.
- M Wagner should continue to improve defensively and that will help his ability to crack the rotation.
- Bamba is on a prove-it deal. He improved last year, hoping his inability to fetch more in RFA leads to him being more aware defensively and more engaged on offense/on the boards.
- Bol Bol - don't expect him to play unless it's garbage time or significant injury
- Cannady - see Bol Bol
- T ross - see Bol Bol and Cannady. He's only gotten worse each of the last 3 years and already publicly said he wants to be on another team.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#14 » by Statlanta » Thu Sep 1, 2022 1:05 am

Fultz - stay the same(focusing on recovering from injury)
Suggs - slightly better.
Anthony - stay the same
Cannady - stay the same.
Harris - worse(injury)
Hampton - marginally better. He is getting close to his peak. His team defense will improve this year though.
Ross - worse. Age.
Houstan - stay the same.
F-Wagner - slightly better.
Isaac - worse(recovering from injury)
Banchero - stay the same(hasn't consistently played against NBA talent yet)
Okeke - marginally better. I do expect marginally-gains improvements here. And efficiency does matter.
Bol - better(positional competition, has a coach that believes in him)
Carter - stay the same(in his prime)
Bamba - stay the same(got paid)
M-Wagner - stay the same(barely sees court time for in-game reps).

Team as a whole better because of more games played(infirmary)

Does that lead to more wins?

Trending towards No.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#15 » by VFX » Sat Sep 3, 2022 11:27 pm

Statlanta wrote:Fultz - stay the same(focusing on recovering from injury)
Suggs - slightly better.
Anthony - stay the same
Cannady - stay the same.
Harris - worse(injury)
Hampton - marginally better. He is getting close to his peak. His team defense will improve this year though.
Ross - worse. Age.
Houstan - stay the same.
F-Wagner - slightly better.
Isaac - worse(recovering from injury)
Banchero - stay the same(hasn't consistently played against NBA talent yet)
Okeke - marginally better. I do expect marginally-gains improvements here. And efficiency does matter.
Bol - better(positional competition, has a coach that believes in him)
Carter - stay the same(in his prime)
Bamba - stay the same(got paid)
M-Wagner - stay the same(barely sees court time for in-game reps).

Team as a whole better because of more games played(infirmary)

Does that lead to more wins?

Trending towards No.


I agree with most of this with the exception of Suggs, Franz, and Carter.

Suggs because he was injured for the majority of last season. I doubt he shoots as poorly as he did when he came back from being injured.

Franz because he was trending upward toward the end of the season. I expect a healthy second year to be better.

Carter due to the dynamics of the adjusted starting lineup. Playing next to Franz and Banchero will get him a lot better looks at the rim. Orlando leaned way too heavily on him last season on offense for lack of options.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#16 » by MagicFan101 » Sun Sep 4, 2022 1:54 am

drsd wrote:
Skybox wrote:Suggs alone should exceed this /\.

Fultz alone should exceed this/\

Switching out Bamba for Banchero in the starting lineup alone should greatly exceed this /\

*Anthony & Bamba are likeliest to lose these shots and points, depending on the rotation and maturity gained. I think the likely gains far exceed the losses.



MagicMatic wrote:Carter is going surprise people.

Paired next to Wagner and Paolo he is going to have much better looks at the rim and less resistance defensively.



You two sound like you believe 40 wins is possible.


..


I would put it this way …

Unlike last year, the pieces are now on the table for the puzzle to add up to a 40+ win season.

However, you still have to put those pieces together and that sometimes takes longer than you might think.

- Does Isaac come back right away?

- Can Fultz stay healthy all year?

- How much better can Suggs be?

- Can we avoid the annual disappointing injury?

We have a lot of questions still which might delay this one more year despite all the cause for optimism.
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Re: Are the Magician's individually better 

Post#17 » by SOUL » Sun Sep 4, 2022 1:57 am

It's hard to measure personal success in a vacuum like this. It's not baseball. Sometimes it's predicated by the improvement of another player, more spacing, more PT, more on-ball reps, etc.
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